Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
| Through 7 Pm...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 Kt, Becoming N In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Fri...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 3 Ft Late. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves Around 5 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 349pm EST Thu Nov 14 2019 Synopsis Canadian high pressure continues to slide offshore tonight. Low pressure develops off the southeast coast Friday and tracks off the Carolina coast Saturday into Sunday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure builds north of the region from the Great Lakes to New England this weekend. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... As of 330pm EST Thursday... Cool and dry afternoon as the surface high continues to shift east off the coast. Mostly cloudy over the area as high clouds continue to pour into the area from the south and west. High temps ended up being a bit cooler this afternoon, with low to mid 40s for most and near 50 along the coast. Dewpoints have been on the rise since this morning for most of the area. They are now in the 30s and 40s east of I-95 but still teens and 20s to the west. Regional radar shows the northern extend of the rain is currently near the SC/NC line. Rain will continue to spread NE throughout the evening but will not reach our region through late tonight. .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330pm EST Thursday... On Friday a mid level trough begins to dig across the southern US, meanwhile low pressure will cross northern FL and become better organized off the SE coast. Precip well ahead of the system may start to affect southern portions of the forecast area early on Friday. Based on current forecast low temps, there shouldn't be any P-type issues. Concern would be if any precipitation makes it further north and west where colder air will still be in place. Forecast soundings over the piedmont and southside for early Friday morning show a warm nose from 700mb down, with surface temps in the mid 30s. Any precipitation that tries to get into this area will be battling dry air in the low levels, however forecast soundings likely aren't accounting for any evaporational cooling that could potentially take place if you get enough rain moving into the dry layer. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts will likely be on the light side (a few hundredths), so rapid cooling shouldn't be a concern, however it's close enough to at least mention the slight possibility of some patchy freezing rain/drizzle early Friday morning. Scattered showers will impact the SE portions of the forecast area throughout the day, with moderate to heavy rain possible at times across far SE VA and NE NC. Precip will likely have a somewhat sharp cut off Friday afternoon and evening as the low off the coast gets better developed and the precipitation will be battling dry air from a strong high pressure over the Great Lakes region. High temps will remain cool on Friday with high temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Low pressure strengthens Saturday into Sunday off the coast. Meanwhile, the strong high pressure will move from the Great Lakes region to over northern New England. Scattered showers will continue mainly over the southeastern portions of the forecast area. Drier air filtering in from the north should prevent the precipitation from getting into the colder air across the western portions of the forecast area. A tightening pressure gradient will create gusty winds along the coast. N/NW winds will gust 35-50 mph near the coast. Wind Advisories or Warnings likely needed this weekend along the coast. Rain should begin to wind down by late Sunday as the low continues to move NE and pulls well away from the coast, however some lingering scattered showers may still be around along the coast into Sunday night. High temps Saturday and Sunday will be in the 40s for most to low 50s across the far SE, with low temps ranging from the 30s NW to mid 40s SE. Rainfall totals through Sunday night will likely be 1-2 inches across far SE VA and NE NC with lesser amounts as you move NW. The far NW of the forecast area likely won't see any rain during this event. Long Term - Monday Through Thursday As of 300pm EST Thursday... By Monday, the coastal low will be moving NNE offshore, up the Mid- Atlantic waters to the Northeast and eventually the Canadian Maritimes by Tuesday. Will keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast across mainly the NE Monday with the potential for a few residual showers around the backside of the low. After Monday, lower confidence in the forecast as the models have an upper trough dipping into the region Tuesday. This will bring the possibility for the development of another coastal low off the Carolina coast late Tuesday into Wednesday, but both the latest GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) runs keep this feature well offshore. Regardless, the region (eastern portions in particular) may feel some impacts in the form of rain showers and wind from this system, especially if this system develops further to the west than currently modeled. For now, have no more than chance PoPs in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday to highlight the uncertainty. High pressure builds back across the region for the end of next week. Below normal temperatures to start the forecast period, but moderating temperatures closer to normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. Marine As of 330am EST Thursday... Last of the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines ended earlier this morning. Attention now turns to Friday night and the weekend when the next round of marine headlines is expected. Surface high pressure over Delmarva this morning will move offshore today into early Friday for a period of sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. Marine conditions start to deteriorate during the second half of the day on Friday as an area of low pressure starts to deepen off the Carolina Coast while ~1035 mb high pressure builds into the nwarning Great Lakes. The resulting pressure gradient will allow N winds to increase to 15- 25 kt by 00z Sat (with gusts up to 30 kt south). Another (stronger) area of low pressure then deepens off the Carolina Coast late Saturday - Sunday orning as the strong high becomes centered over New England. An extended period of adverse marine conditions appears certain from Fri night-Sunday night with a very good likelihood of widespread Gale conditions and the potential for storm conditions for at least our southernmost ocean zone (ANZ658) and perhaps the Currituck Sound. Even the rivers (especially the Lower James) could experience a period of frequent gale force gusts. The most likely onset of gale conditions looks to be late Friday evening-early Saturday morning (local wind probabilities show probs of gale force gusts ramping up to 70-95% during this timeframe over the ocean/Lower Ches Bay with storm force wind gust probs near Corolla reaching 25%). Winds during the period of gales this weekend look to be out of the N-NE. Models continue to come into better agreement with respect to the track of the two lows, so confidence has definitely increased enough to warrant the issue of Gale Watches. After coordination with surrounding offices, have issued a Gale Watch beginning at 03z Sat for the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound, beginning at 05z Sat for the northern coastal waters and lower Chesapeake bay, and beginning at 09z Sat for the lower James River. This gale watch is for wind gusts in the 40-45 kt range. As mentioned before, the potential for storm conditions (at least in gusts) is increasing for areas adjacent the northern OBX and some consideration did go into a Storm Watch for ANZ658 and the Currituck Sound this morning. Thought it best to just go with a Gale Watch for now for simplicity in messaging, but the potential for an upgrade to a storm warning may be needed for this area later in time as gusts up to 50 kt will be possible around Corolla on Saturday. Seas are forecast to build to 12-16 ft offshore with waves in the Ches Bay up to 4-7 ft (perhaps up to 8-9 ft at the mouth). A high surf advisory will eventually be needed. Winds are expected to diminish to below gale criteria late Sunday night-early Monday AM, before falling below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria during the late Mon- Monday night timeframe. However, seas likely remain elevated through early next week. Will end the gale watch at 11z Sunday for now (6th period). Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 300pm EST Thursday... A prolonged coastal flood event is becoming more likely this weekend, with the worst conditions expected to occur Sunday. Strong low pressure will develop off the southeast coast this weekend leading to a prolonged period of strong onshore N-NE flow Saturday through Sunday. This will allow tide departures to rise through the weekend, leading to many areas along the Atlantic coast along/south of Chincoteague, and lower Chesapeake Bay to see moderate coastal flooding (with departures of 2-3 ft above normal tide) by the Sunday morning high tide cycle. In fact, some spots (such as Jamestown and areas along the NE NC Coast) could reach major coastal flooding Sunday. In addition, many spots may even see some minor-moderate coastal flooding with the Saturday afternoon/evening high tide cycle given that we will already have widespread gale force winds over the waters by that point. With the potential for a long duration coastal flood event, combined with the potential for significant beach/dune erosion from the breaking waves, have opted to issue a coastal flood watch for the Atlantic Coast south of Chincoteague, as well as the lower Chesapeake Bay and up the James/York Rivers. Am currently expecting inundation of 2 feet or greater in places normally susceptible to coastal flooding, especially on Sunday due to the higher astronomical tide. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for NCZ102. High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for NCZ017-102. VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>100-523>525. High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for VAZ095-098. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ632-634-650-652-654. Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ633-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm Friday to 7am EST Sunday for ANZ630-631-635>637. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ANZ638. |
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