Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
| Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Afternoon. |
| Tue...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Waves Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 3 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Sat...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 246pm EDT Monday Mar 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Some fire weather concerns exist in the late afternoon in the piedmont. 2) Temperatures briefly cool down Tuesday, then start to moderate back to slightly above average temperatures mid to late week. The pattern turns potentially unsettled by the end of the week and into the weekend. As of 240pm EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Some fire weather concerns exist in the late afternoon in the piedmont. A marginal fire weather threat continues for the piedmont this evening as drier air moves into the region behind a cold front currently moving across the area. While a line of showers along the front tried to hold together as it moved into the piedmont this morning, they petered out and practically diminished , which limited any accumulating rainfall. Winds have started to pick up west of I- 95, with gusts of 15-25 mph being measured this afternoon. Meanwhile, dew points still in the 50s remain the limiting factor, though temperatures have over performed by a few degrees, leading to RH values in the upper 30s to near 50% (upper 60s to near 70% across the Eastern Shore) this afternoon. The drier air is right on the cusp of our forecast area, but it is lagging more than expected. The fire weather threat window will likely be pretty short as the drier air moves in by the time we start losing day light. KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures briefly cool down Tuesday, then start to moderate back to above average temperatures mid to late week. The pattern turns potentially unsettled by the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend. The airmass behind the front will replace our current mild airmass with a much cooler one as strong high pressure builds in across the area tonight through Tuesday. Temperatures will drop into upper 20s/lower 30s (NW) to near 40F (SE) tonight, with high temperatures tomorrow only expected to reach the lower to mid 50s (upper 40s to near 50F Eastern Shore and immediate coast). While light winds will be present on Tuesday night, whether or not we see any radiational cooling will depend on how quickly cloud cover fills in. Regardless, another chilly night is expected, with lows in the 30s. The high will be relatively transient and is forecast to shift offshore on Wednesday which will allow winds to shift to the south. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the end of the week ahead of another front, returning near normal Wednesday and then jumping back to above normal through the end of the week. The next chance for rain comes on Friday/Friday night as the aforementioned front moves through the area, though the rain footprint it will leave behind is not looking very prominent. There is currently almost no ensemble support for rainfall amounts greater than a half inch. Behind the second front, temperatures will drop back down below normal on Saturday. Marine As of 247pm EDT Monday... Key Messages: -SCA (Small Craft Advisory) are in effect for all waters through tomorrow. - Benign marine conditions will gradually resume Tuesday afternoon and evening, continuing through early Friday ahead of our next cold frontal passage. Afternoon weather analysis shows the cold front south of the area and a high across the Mid-west. Since the passing of the frontal passage there has been a lull in the winds as they are light and variable. However, just north of the waters the dry and cold air is now finally making its way south. Expect winds to rapidly increase within the next 1-2 hrs to 20-25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt out of the north. Will note that some of the high-res models have shown a brief period of gusts between 30-35kt between 8pm Monday through 12am Tues. However, the confidence in gusts nearing 35kt is to low for any Gale warning. Any gusts over 34kt will be handled with a short fused SMW. Seas are remaining calm with around 1 ft across the bay and 2-3ft across the waters. But, as the wind increases in the next 1-2 hrs expect waves to increase to 2-4 ft across the bay and 3-5 ft across the ocean. With conditions expected to deteriorate and last through tonight into tomorrow Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all waters. Since the Cold Air Advection lagged behind did extended the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the rivers through 9z Tues. Other extensions of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) maybe needed due to this lag in wind. Conditions are expected to improve Mid-Tuesday morning and early Tuesday afternoon as high pressure begins to move over the area. This will allow for the winds to light and variable around 5-10 kt by Tuesday evening. Seas by Tuesday afternoon will lower to 1-2 ft across the bay and 3-4 ft across the coastal waters. Once these benign marine conditions return to the waters late tomorrow they are expected to remain in place through much of the week. The next chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions would be late this week and into the weekend as another strong cold front is expected to move through the area. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7pm EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-079-080-509>511-513>515. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631-633- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634- 650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ658. |
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