Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Am...N Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Patchy Fog.|
|Today...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Early In The Morning. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Tonight...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 10 Kt, Becoming 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
337am EDT Fri September 29 2023
Strong high pressure over Quebec and northern New England, and lingering low pressure offshore will lead to persistent cloudy and cool conditions through Saturday. High pressure settles over the area by the later half of the weekend into next week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 300am EDT Friday... Early this morning, strong high pressure remained centered over Maine. Aloft, a broad trough and a weak closed low were located over the E Great Lakes. At the surface, ridging extends well south of the surface high into the Piedmont of VA, NC, and even SC, reinforcing the cold air damming (CAD) setup across the area. Offshore, weak low pressure was located east of the NC OBX.
The combination of these pressure systems has allowed for persistent low clouds and occasional drizzle which will continue through the morning and through much of today (especially near the coast). Some locally heavier rain showers have tried to develop across far northern portions of the MD Eastern Shore and offshore early this morning due to the lifting inverted trough off the coast. Best chances for any heavier rain across these locations will generally be during the morning hours before the trough lifts further NE by this afternoon. Similar to the past couple of days, we will remain stuck in the clouds (especially eastern half of the FA). Some gradual clearing/lifting ceilings is possible starting across the SW/W and progressing NE through the afternoon/evening. Temperatures will be a touch warmer today compared to yesterday, with highs generally in the lower 70s (upper 60s to around 70 MD Eastern Shore/Northern Neck)
Lower clouds/overcast skies build back across the entire FA tonight with again the potential for some patchy drizzle/fog. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s W to the lower 60s closer to the coast.
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
As of 335am EDT Friday... Saturday will likely remain another fairly cloudy day, though fortunately our last, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. The upper low begins to (slowly) move off the NJ coast during the day Saturday. A slight chance of showers will linger across primarily the MD Eastern Shore through Saturday afternoon. Still remaining on the cooler side Saturday afternoon with high temperatures again generally in the lower 70s (some mid 70s across the S/SW). Lows dip into the mid to upper 50s (lower 60s at the coast) Saturday night. We finally see improving conditions on Sunday with the low pushing further out to sea and high pressure building over the region. High temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 70s Sunday afternoon.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
As of 335am EDT Friday... The extended period will feature an upper level ridge and surface high pressure over the eastern half of the CONUS. Dry conditions and plentiful sunshine are expected through midweek with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day and lows in the 50s and 60s each night. One caveat is that we will have to watch the potential for some moisture trying to sneak into far SE portions of the area late in the period as a coastal trough may try to move closer.
As of 335am EDT Thursday... Strong high pressure to the east of Maine continues to ridge south into the Mid-Atlantic states with an inverted coastal trough off the Carolina coast. NNE winds are generally 15-20 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Waves are 2-3 ft (3-4 ft near the mouth of the bay) with seas 5- 7 ft.
Main synoptic features will persist today into the weekend with high pressure anchored NE of the region and a coastal trough/closed low lingering offshore. Winds will slacken for a period today with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines in the Ches Bay ending from N to S this morning. Winds generally around 15 kt today before increasing back to 15-20 kt late tonight into early Saturday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines continue for the Atlantic coastal waters through the weekend as seas remain elevated at 4-6 ft today and Saturday before increasing once again on Sunday into early next week. Extended offshore SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) through Sunday evening for now but these will likely require extension in subsequent forecasts. Waves at the mouth of the bay will stay in the 3-5 ft range through the weekend as well. NE surface flow persists into early next week but at sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. High pressure finally builds into and over the region by midweek, bringing a welcome return to benign boating
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 335am EDT Friday... Some slight improvement in water levels early this morning as a series of ebb tides have been noted at the mouth of the bay. That said, Coastal Flood Advisories continue for much of the area this morning. Expect a period of only nuisance to locally minor coastal flooding tonight into Saturday before increasing NE winds and persistent swell near the mouth of the bay lead to increasing tidal anomalies again on Sunday. Will let the current headlines come to an end before introducing any further advisories. Current forecast for the high tide this afternoon at Bishops Head looks to only be a tenth of an inch or so into minor territory with other nearby gauges only rising into action stage.
High rip current risk continues today and Saturday at all area beaches.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6am EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11am EDT this morning for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11am EDT this morning for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5am EDT early this morning for VAZ075-077. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for VAZ078-084>086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT early this morning for ANZ630-631-638. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT this morning for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Saturday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.