Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast


TODAY

NE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

FRI

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ631 Forecast Issued: 704 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Today...Ne Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.
Tonight...Sw Winds 5 Kt, Becoming N In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Rain Likely After Midnight.
Fri...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
Fri Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening.
Sat...Ne Winds 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft.
Sat Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
Sun...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft.
Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.
Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
702am EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure gradually slides offshore today. Low pressure develops off the southeast coast Friday and tracks off the Carolina coast Saturday into Sunday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure builds north of the region from the Great Lakes to New England this weekend.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 400am EST Thursday... The current surface analysis places 1032mb high pressure centered over New England, and extending to the SW into the Mid- Atlantic. Mostly clear early this morning with thin cirrus streaming in from the SW. Unseasonably cold early this morning with temperatures ranging from the upper teens to low 20s from the Piedmont to the MD Ern Shore, with upper 20s/around 30F over coastal SE VA/NE NC where light NNE flow persists. Morning low temperatures for 11/14 will be near records for most climate sites, and as of now Salisbury has at least tied the record low of 22F. See the climate section below for more details. High pressure will slowly slide offshore today, with a light SSW wind developing this afternoon. Low pressure will organize in vicinity of the Gulf Coast, and will result in increasing high clouds today. Forecast high temperatures are warmer than yesterday, but still below seasonal averages, with forecast highs ranging from the mid 40s to near 50F from the Piedmont to the MD Ern Shore, with mid/upper 50s for SE VA/NE NC.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Saturday
As of 400am EST Thursday... Low pressure tracks across the FL Peninsula tonight and tracks NE off the Southeast Coast Friday. Meanwhile, a vigorous northern stream trough and cold front track from the northern Great Lakes to New England, with high pressure building across the Great Lakes Saturday. Shallow moisture and low-level lift arrive from the SW later tonight, which should result in light rain spreading into southern VA and toward SE VA and NE NC. Mostly cloudy to overcast tonight with low temperatures ranging from ~32F NW to the mid/upper 40s SE. There will also be a large dewpoint gradient from NW-SE (upper 20s NW to around 50F SE) that should inhibit the nwd extent of pcpn. Therefore, light rain is not expected to spread far enough N at this time for any p-type issues of the Piedmont. This trend continues Friday with the highest Probability of Precipitation for light rain across s-central/SE VA and NE NC. Forecast highs Friday range from the low 50s N and along the coast, with mid 40s for s-central portions of the area. These locations could hold in the low 40s if light rain persists through much of the day, and temperatures could also fall during the afternoon for coastal NE NC.

Low pressure lingers and intensifies off the Southeast coast Friday night into Saturday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure (1036-1038mb) over the Great Lakes builds into the Northeast Conus. This will bring breezy to windy conditions along the coast, and the best chance for rain will remain over SE VA/NE NC. Drier air will build in from the NNE for nrn/warning portions of the area with dewpoints potentially falling into the mid/upper teens Saturday over the Piedmont. Mostly cloudy to overcast and chilly Saturday with high temperatures ranging from around 40F NW to the low 50s SE, after morning lows ranging from the low 30s NW to mid 40s SE. Again, drier air to the NW should prevent moisture spreading N into sub-freezing temperatures. Storm total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ranges from 0.5-1.25" for SE VA/NE NC.

Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
As of 400am EST Thursday... The main models are still in agreement with an area of low pressure developing off the SE coast Saturday, and then eventually lifting to the NNE Sunday and off the coast Monday. The general trend amongst 14/00z guidance is for precipitation to remain over SE portions Saturday night and clip the coast Sunday, before moving offshore Monday. For now, took a blend of the two solutions with chance PoPs mainly east of I-95 and increasing towards the coast and slight chance Probability of Precipitation to no Probability of Precipitation west of I-95. There is a low probability for wintry pcpn, mainly along/west of I-95. Any wintry precipitation that does develop may be more of the ZR or IP variety rather than just pure rain/snow due to warmer air aloft. However, confidence for wintry weather remains fairly low at this time due to very dry air inland and impacts appear relatively minimal. Any wintry precipitation changes to rain during the day Sunday, with rain chances generally decreasing from SW to NE. The coastal low will continue to lift to the NNE Monday while another shortwave digs into the Gulf States, potentially developing another coastal low by the middle of next week. Temperatures remain below average on both Sunday and Monday, before a gradual warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday when temperatures climb closer to normal.

Marine
As of 330am EST Thursday... Last of the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines ended earlier this morning. Attention now turns to Friday night and the weekend when the next round of marine headlines is expected.

Surface high pressure over Delmarva this morning will move offshore today into early Friday for a period of sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. Marine conditions start to deteriorate during the second half of the day on Friday as an area of low pressure starts to deepen off the Carolina Coast while ~1035 mb high pressure builds into the nwarning Great Lakes. The resulting pressure gradient will allow N winds to increase to 15- 25 kt by 00z Sat (with gusts up to 30 kt south). Another (stronger) area of low pressure then deepens off the Carolina Coast late Saturday - Sunday
orning as the strong high becomes centered over New England. An extended period of adverse marine conditions appears certain from Fri night-Sunday night with a very good likelihood of widespread Gale conditions and the potential for storm conditions for at least our southernmost ocean zone (ANZ658) and perhaps the Currituck Sound. Even the rivers (especially the Lower James) could experience a period of frequent gale force gusts. The most likely onset of gale conditions looks to be late Friday evening-early Saturday morning (local wind probabilities show probs of gale force gusts ramping up to 70-95% during this timeframe over the ocean/Lower Ches Bay with storm force wind gust probs near Corolla reaching 25%). Winds during the period of gales this weekend look to be out of the N-NE. Models continue to come into better agreement with respect to the track of the two lows, so confidence has definitely increased enough to warrant the issue of Gale Watches. After coordination with surrounding offices, have issued a Gale Watch beginning at 03z Sat for the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound, beginning at 05z Sat for the northern coastal waters and lower Chesapeake bay, and beginning at 09z Sat for the lower James River. This gale watch is for wind gusts in the 40-45 kt range. As mentioned before, the potential for storm conditions (at least in gusts) is increasing for areas adjacent the northern OBX and some consideration did go into a Storm Watch for ANZ658 and the Currituck Sound this morning. Thought it best to just go with a Gale Watch for now for simplicity in messaging, but the potential for an upgrade to a storm warning may be needed for this area later in time as gusts up to 50 kt will be possible around Corolla on Saturday. Seas are forecast to build to 12-16 ft offshore with waves in the Ches Bay up to 4-7 ft (perhaps up to 8-9 ft at the mouth). A high surf advisory will eventually be needed. Winds are expected to diminish to below gale criteria late Sunday night-early Monday AM, before falling below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria during the late Mon- Monday night timeframe. However, seas likely remain elevated through early next week. Will end the gale watch at 11z Sunday for now (6th period).

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 500am EST Thursday... Coastal low pressure will produce strong and persistent onshore flow beginning Friday night and lasting through the weekend. Minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible for several high tide cycles. The highest threat for moderate coastal flooding looks to be during Sunday's high tide cycle for areas adjacent the Lower Ches Bay, James River, and southern coastal waters where inundation levels may reach 1-2 feet AGL. Outer Banks Currituck County may even see moderate coastal flooding as early as Saturday morning's high tide cycle.

Climate
The coldest air of the season has spread across the area in the wake of a strong cold front, which moved through the region Tuesday. Record low maximum temperatures were set on Wednesday 11/13 at Norfolk, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Record low temperatures for Thursday 11/14 are are also listed below:

Record Low Max High Location (11/13) Year 11/13 -------- ------ ---- ---- Richmond 37 1911 38 (Not a Record) Norfolk 42 1920 40 (New Record) Salisbury 42 1977 37 (New Record) Elizabeth City 44 2013 41 (New Record)

Record Location Low (11/14) Year ------- -------- ------ Richmond 18 1976 Norfolk 24 1976 Salisbury 22 1986 Elizabeth City 22 1976

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for ANZ632-634-650-652. Gale Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night for ANZ633-654-656-658. Gale Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for ANZ638.