Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se Late. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tonight...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon, Then Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Through The Day.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1032am EST Tuesday Nov 29 2022
High pressure will move offshore today. Showers are likely on Wednesday. A strong cold front will cross the region late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Cool and dry weather is expected late this week as high pressure returns.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 1030am EST Tuesday... Latest surface analysis reveals ~1023mb surface high pressure centered over the local area, with strong (~992mb) low pressure deepening over central KS. Temps this morning ranged from the low to mid 50s across SE VA and NE NC to the mid to upper 40s across central VA and the MD Eastern Shore. Winds remain on the light side, and are generally E/ESE at ~5 mph. There should be less afternoon CU compared to yesterday but visible satellite imagery shows some upper-level cirrus streaming across the CWA (County Warning Area) (thicker N).
The forecast remains on track and only minor adjustments were made to temps and dew points this afternoon. Highs will be a couple degrees cooler compared to yesterday, generally in the mid 50s N to around 60 S. Through the day, surface high shifts offshore as sharp cold front (that will extend all the way to the Deep South) pushes eastward toward the Appalachians. Winds become SE at 5-10 mph by late afternoon. Surface low also deepens to 980-985 mb tonight. The low-level flow veers to the SSE-S and increases a bit as clouds will continue to thicken/lower. Cannot rule out a few showers west of I-95 during the latter part of the night. Lows tonight (upper 30s to mid 40s) are likely to occur on the early side due to WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) increasing during the early morning hours. In fact, temps could increase overnight/early Wednesday due to warm/moist advection from the S.
Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night
As of 330am EST Tuesday... The very strong low is forecast to continue to deepen as it tracks toward the southern shore of the Hudson Bay from Wed-Wednesday night, while the cold front will quickly cross the local area from west to east between 5-11PM. Expect (pre-frontal) widespread showers to push eastward across the area during the morning through early afternoon. Most of the rain that falls on Wednesday will do so during the morning- early afternoon. Despite the widespread clouds/showers, temperatures will rise into the low-mid 60s in most areas due to strong WAA ahead of the front. Breezy conditions are expected on Wednesday with S-SW winds gusting to 25-35mph across much of the area. There may be a bit of a break in the rain from early-mid afternoon before scattered showers accompany the FROPA during the late aftn-evening. It appears that there will be very little to no instability with the FROPA, so no thunder is expected. Dry weather returns from west to east very quickly after the FROPA. Brief gusty winds (up to ~40mph) are likely with the FROPA due to sharp pressure rises expected immediately behind the front (as temperatures/dew points rapidly drop 10-15F). Skies quickly clear Wednesday night as Cold Air Advection continues. Winds will diminish to 5- 15mph inland, but will remain gusty near the coast. Much cooler Wednesday night with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. ~1036mb high pressure quickly builds toward the region on Thu, and settles over the local area Thu night. Mainly sunny but still a bit breezy near the coast with highs only in the 40s. Undercut model blends by a few degrees Thu night with the high over the area. Forecast lows range from the low-mid 20s inland (and on the Lower MD Ern Shore) to upper 20s- lower 30s in coastal SE VA/NE NC.
Long Term - Friday Through Monday
As of 330am EST Tuesday... Ridging aloft builds over the east coast Fri and again Sun-Tue. At the surface, high pressure pushes offshore by Fri evening and moves well to our NE by Sat. Low pressure tracks NE through the Great Lakes into Canada Sat, pushing another cold front through with a low (15-30%) chance for showers. High pressure builds back in from the W Sunday before a warm front lifts N Monday (and into the NE CONUS by Tue) as another strong low pressure system deepens as it tracks from the Plains to the Great Lakes. Rain chances increase from south to north on Monday. The overrunning precipitation lifts well to our north by Tuesday morning, with only a slight chance of a shower on Tuesday (with the associated cold front still well to our west). Highs in the upper 40s N to mid 50s S Fri, 60s Sat, lower 50s NW to lower 60s SE Sun/Mon, and upper 50s-mid 60s on Tue. Lows in the mid 30s-lower 40s Fri night, upper 30s NW to upper 40s SE Sat night, mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE Sunday night, and 40s-around 50F Monday night.
As of 400am EST Tuesday... High pressure is centered inland over the Mid-Atlantic this morning, leading to winds N 10-25 kt. Winds will decrease and become E 5-10 kt later on today when high pressure slides off the coast. A cold front will approach the coast from the west on Wednesday/Wednesday night. Ahead of the front on Wednesday, southerly winds increase to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories have been issued for Wednesday. The southerly winds will be slightly higher for Atlantic Ocean coastal waters north of Parramore Island, VA. Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for these areas for S winds 25-30 kt with gusts around 35 kt.
The cold front is expected to move off the coast Wednesday evening. Winds will abrupartly change from S to NW and be 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt. Most likely area for gale force wind gusts will be north of Parramore Island, where Gale Warning is in effect.
Seas will be increasing Wednesday to 5-8 ft and waves in the Chesapeake Bay will increase to 3-5 ft. When winds shift from S to NW, seas will be 4-6 ft with waves in the bay remaining 3-5 ft.
High pressure will build into the region Thursday behind the cold front. NW-NNW winds will remain elevated on Thursday, but will be decreasing during the day as the center of high pressure moves closer to the coast. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely need to be extended into Thursday evening. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will return on Friday with the center of high pressure over the local area.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 7am Wednesday to 1pm EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10am Wednesday to 7am EST Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 10am Wednesday to 1am EST Thursday for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning from 10am Wednesday to 7am EST Thursday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 10am Wednesday to 10am EST Thursday for ANZ654-656-658.