Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne Late This Evening And Overnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Fri...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt Late In The Morning, Then Becoming Se 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. Showers.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft In The Late Evening And Overnight. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
756pm EDT Wednesday Oct 27 2021
Weak high pressure builds across the region tonight into Thursday ahead of our next low pressure system currently over the southern plains. This system will move toward the region Thursday night and pass through the area on Friday. Clouds and widespread rain will spread across the area by Thu night and persist through Friday. In addition, gusty winds are expected on Friday especially close to the coast.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
As of 755pm EDT Wednesday... Temps as of 750pm ranged from the mid to upper 50s inland and lower to mid 60s along the coast and over the Eastern Shore where clouds persist. Generally quiet weather tonight as the area is currently in between the two areas of strong low pressure off the New England coast, and the other over the plains. High pressure will continue.nue over the area tonight along with clear skies inland. Partly to mostly cloudy skies along the immediate coast and Eastern Shore this evening will improve to partly cloudy skies overnight. Clouds begin to build late tonight into early Thurs morning across the area. Lows will drop into the mid 40s for most except 50s close to the coast and lower 40s in the western Piedmont.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Friday Night
As of 300pm EDT Wednesday... Impactful weather returns for Thu night and continues into Friday. The broad trough over the plains will develop into a closed low over the southern plains and gradually move east. Meanwhile, a large area of surface low pressure will continue.nue to develop over the MS valley on Thursday and move east to the SE by Friday morning. Broad warm advection and isentropic lift will move into the area ahead of the system late Thu and overspread the area from the SE Thu night ahead of the occluded front. As such, will spread categorical Probability of Precipitation across the region from SW to NE Thu night into early Friday morning. Will generally continue categorical Probability of Precipitation across the entire region Friday morning, then diminish Probability of Precipitation Friday afternoon into Friday evening from south to north. Friday is tricky for Pops, especially in the afternoon as the NAM shows two waves precip, one with the upper warm advection, and the second with the slower surface front and triple point which moves over the eastern part of the area. GFS is faster overall and keeps the triple point offshore. This will play an important role in whether or not any storms will develop on Friday. A NAM solution would allow for thunderstorm development along the occluded front with 500-1000 j/kg MLCAPE and would bring at least a small chance for severe potential due to the strong wind fields aloft. The GFS would not bring thunder however. Still, given that this system is so dynamic, will include schance of thunder for much of the area Friday into Fri evening. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the event will generally be 0.5 to 1.5 inch, with the highest values over the NW piedmont. Very impressive U wind anomalies suggest locally higher values possible especially further inland.
Perhaps the more significant concern will be the brief period of moderate to even strong wind associated with the tightening gradient and strengthening U wind anomalies just north of the occluded front on Friday. Guidance continues to show increasing easterly wind along and just north of the occluded front Friday which could bring gusts to 35 to 45 mph across Hampton Roads, the Peninsulas through the northern neck and across the eastern shore. In fact, guidance suggests that the easterly wind will become stronger as the front moves north and the gradient tightens up even more. Would not be shocked to see even stronger gusts from WAL and points north. Wind gust guidance from the NAM and GFS shows gusts at the shoreline and open water of 50+ mph. This may be more indicative of instantaneous gusts, but most likely wind advisories will be needed for Friday for portions of eastern VA and the lower MD eastern shore.
Still cannot rule out a few showers Fri night, especially across the north and northwest which will be closest to the surface and upper low. However, any widespread rainfall not expected due to drying aloft.
Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
As of 300pm EDT Wednesday... The vertically stacked low pressure over the central Appalachians will slowly move north through the weekend. With the cool air aloft associated with the upper low and plenty of moisture available, will need to keep chance Probability of Precipitation across the region on Saturday, especially west of I-95. Even Sat night into Sunday morning, the upper trough and associated moisture will allow for a few showers/sprinkles across the northern tier. However, by Sunday afternoon, any remaining light showers/sprinkles should move out leading to partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 60s, with mid to upper 60s on Sunday.
Generally quiet weather is expected for next week as upper flow becomes westerly in advance of the deep upper trough over the northern plains and central Canada. A weak cold front will attempt to move through the area Tuesday or Wed, but very little moisture will be available with this system. In fact, will keep a dry forecast for now, although it is possible that low Probability of Precipitation may be needed for Tuesday or Wednesday in future forecasts. Overall, temps will be seasonable with mid 60s to around 70 Monday and Tuesday, falling to the low-mid 60s on Wednesday.
As of 400pm EDT Wednesday... Tonight through tomorrow, conditions will continue.nue to improve compared to the past 24 hours as strong low pressure off the New England coast continues to pull off to the east. High pressure (briefly) builds across the region later this evening/tonight into tomorrow allowing for a brief window of sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds. Remaining Small Craft Advisories for the Chesapeake Bay are scheduled to end later this evening. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) on the coastal waters will continue.nue tonight into Friday morning due to elevated seas (5-8 feet this evening, slowly diminishing tonight/tomorrow but still lingering in excess of 5 feet).
The calm conditions will be short lived and conditions rapidly deteriorate late Thursday night through Friday. Easterly/onshore flow will strengthen Thursday night ahead of an approaching low pressure over the Tennessee Valley. Guidance continues to be in decent agreement regarding vertically-stacked low pressure approaching the region early Friday morning. It is looking increasingly likely that the waters will experience a window of high- end easterly Gale gusts (to potentially even some gusts to Storm Force, especially NE) during the Friday morning/afternoon timeframe as the low tracks across the region. As a result, Gale Watches are in effect for all of the waters outside of the upper rivers which may eventually need headlines as well. In additions to the Gale force wind gusts, seas will rapidly build due to the strong onshore flow. Seas build to 9-12 feet across the northern waters (12 ft+ out 20 nm) and 7-10 feet south. Seas remain elevated in excess of 5 feet through much of the weekend. Calmer conditions are expected Saturday into early next week.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 400pm EDT Wednesday... Coastal Flood Watches now in effect for areas along the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic coast north of Cape Charles Light.
Chesapeake Bay/Tidal Rivers: Tidal anomalies are already rapidly increasing across the Chesapeake Bay in the wake of the low (+1 ft from about 12 hour ago). A strong flood tide was also noted at Cape Henry, with multiple flood tides (and very little to no ebb tide) expected to continue according to CBOFS guidance. In addition, the next low pressure system approaches the region Thursday into Friday, turning the winds to the east (gale force) which will allow for additional water up the Chesapeake Bay. All of these factors are setting the stage for a significant coastal flood event for especially the northern Chesapeake Bay tidal sites beginning tomorrow evening and persisting into the weekend. Guidance continues to show the highest tide during the late Friday evening/Friday night timeframe with locations such as Cambridge, Bishops Head, and Lewisetta approaching or surpassing Major Flood Stage. The remainder of the upper Bay tidal sites will be reach Moderate Flood Stage. Water levels will be slow to recede with elevated tides expected into the weekend. The southern Bay/river sites will also likely reach at least Minor Flood Stage (perhaps Moderate at Jamestown).
Atlantic Coast: Minor/nuisance flooding is expected to continue at Ocean City over the next couple of tidal cycles. More significant flooding, high-end minor to moderate, is expected later Friday evening at Ocean City, Chincoteague, Wachapreague, and Oyster. Large waves in excess of 8 to 10 feet will enhance the flooding threat and may also lead to beach/dune erosion issues.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4am EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning for VAZ075-077-099. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for VAZ100. Coastal Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning for VAZ078-085-086.
Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for ANZ650-652. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for ANZ633-638.