Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. |
| Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 Foot. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
|
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 700am EDT Thu July 17 2025 Synopsis High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast today bringing hot and continued humid conditions. A weak cold front drops into the region Friday and Saturday bringing an increased chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 700am EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Heat Advisories have been issued for central and southeastern VA, the Eastern Shore, and northeast North Carolina. - Afternoon/evening isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. GOES water vapor channels show a ridge off the Southeast US coast, with zonal flow across the Mid-Atlantic on the northern periphery of the ridge. High pressure is co-located at the surface offshore. Meanwhile, low pressure and a cold front are located well NW of the region across the Great Lakes associated with a stronger upper level trough. Partly to mostly cloudy and very warm and humid early this morning with temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80F as of 700 AM. 850mb temperatures rise to 19-21C today. This should support highs in the lower to mid 90s, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 70s during peak heating due to recent wet conditions. This will yield heat indices in the 100-105F range over the Piedmont and 105-109F along and E of the I-95 corridor in VA and E of the Chowan River in NE NC. Heat advisories remain in effect and have been expanded to include some more of central and s-central VA as well as NE NC E of the Chowan River. A subtle shortwave trough slides across the northern Mid-Atlantic later this afternoon, and this could trigger a few showers/thunderstorms across the western and northern tier of the area mid-afternoon to early evening, with Probability of Precipitation generally 15-30% from the Piedmont across central VA to SE MD. There will be a little more shear today, so any thunderstorms could become more organized and pose at least a marginal damaging wind threat. Breezy today with a SW wind of 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph. Warm and humid tonight with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Short Term - Friday Through Saturday As of 350am EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will bring a threat of additional heavy rain Friday and Saturday. - Heat advisories may be needed across far southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina Friday. The aforementioned trough and cold front push from the Great Lakes to the Northeast tonight into Friday. A milder and drier airmass will remain well N of the region, but the associated cold front is forecast to drop into the local area Friday. This will interact with an airmass with PW values (Precipitable Water values) >2" and mid 70s surface dewpoints. Notably, the 00z/17 GEFS mean PW is 2.2-2.3" 00z Saturday and the EPS mean is 2.1-2.2" across most of the area. In addition, the 00z/17 HREF 3hr PMM has a couple 30% contours of 3"/3hr neighborhood probs from central VA to NE NC. Given this combined with wet antecedent conditions, the threat for heavy rain from showers/thunderstorms will return with the Day 2 ERO being upgraded to 'slight'. There is also 30-35kt of 500mb flow, which could result in better storm organization and a marginal threat for damaging wind gusts. Continued hot and humid, with 105+F heat indices possible across far SE VA and NE NC. The front lingers in vicinity of the region Saturday. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough digs across the region during the afternoon and evening. EPS/GEFS mean PW values (Precipitable Water values) remain 2.1-2.3". Therefore, the threat for heavy rain from showers/thunderstorms will continue with the new Day 3 ERO featuring a 'slight risk' for excessive rainfall. The combination of the shortwave feature and the front attempting to lift back N as a warm front could allow the heavy rain threat to linger later into the evening. Seasonally hot and humid Saturday with highs in the mid 80s to around 90F, after morning lows in the lower to mid 70s. Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday As of 350am EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Generally seasonal temperatures and humidity late this weekend into the middle of next week. The ridge breaks down Saturday night into Sunday as a trough digs across the Northeast. EPS/GEFS each retrograde the ridge to the west early-middle of next week as lower 500mb heigheights develop over New England and Atlantic Canada. This may actually push a front through the area with PW values (Precipitable Water values) returning to near seasonal normals with highs in the 80s. However, the Mid- Atlantic will be in a NW flow regime between the trough to the NE and the ridge to the SW. Therefore, slight chance to chance Probability of Precipitation will continue, highest S. Marine As of 300am EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect today for the Chesapeake Bay, rivers, and coastal waters offshore of VA. - Benign marine conditions return Friday through the weekend with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure over the Great Lakes and strong high pressure offshore is leading to a period of elevated southwesterly winds this morning. Observations are generally reflecting 15-20 kt wind speeds with gusts upwards of 25 kt. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most waters through at least this morning, with the exception of the far northern and far southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound. Although wind speeds should drop off some as we head into the afternoon hours today, gusty SW winds are likely to continue across nearshore areas of the lower bay and James and York Rivers. Have therefore extended the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for these areas until 7pm this evening. Another period of elevated SW winds are possible tonight, but the latest model guidance generally suggests sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds. There is some uncertainty regarding the wind forecast for Friday as a slow- moving cold front drops into the region. Regardless, a wind shift to the N/NNE is expected Friday morning, followed by rather variable/sea breeze-dominated wind directions by the afternoon as the front stalls over the area. This front is also expected to trigger rather widespread shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon-evening Friday, with significantly higher wind gusts and waves possible in and near storms. S-SW flow returns for the weekend with generally benign/variable marine conditions expected. Daily shower/storm chances also continue through the weekend. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 2-3 ft are expected through most of today. On the ocean, seas generally stay in the 3-4 ft range, but could briefly touch 5 ft in the northern waters later this morning. 1-2 ft waves and seas prevail from later Friday into the weekend. A low risk of rip currents is expected today through the upcoming weekend. Hydrology As of 350am EDT Thursday... A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Blackwater river in Dendron. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD... Heat Advisory from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT this evening for MDZ021>025. NC... Heat Advisory from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ014>017-031-032. VA... Heat Advisory from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT this evening for VAZ064-075>078-081>086-088>090-092-093-095>100- 511>525. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-635. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634-636>638. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ652- 654-656. |
Wakefield Norfolk VA Radar
Northeast Radar
East Coast Satellite