Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Pm...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Wed...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt Late. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot After Midnight.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257pm EST Tuesday Jan 19 2021
High pressure builds across the southeast states this afternoon, as low pressure moves through eastern Canada and northern New England. A dry cold front crosses the area late tonight into Wednesday morning. Low pressure tracks across the deep south Thursday and Friday. Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest over the weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 1130am EST Tuesday... Latest analysis indicates ~1031mb surface high pressure centered across northern FL/southern GA, with a surface trough along the Appalachians. Aloft, the flow is westerly, out ahead of a subtle trough moving through the upper midwest. After a cold start earlier this morning, temperatures have warmed into the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the region under mostly sunny skies. With fairly deep mixing this afternoon. a SW wind will be breezy with gusts to 20-25 mph across the area, along with fairly mild temperatures for late January: highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s over southern VA and NE NC to the upper 40s to lower 50s on the eastern shore.
A quick moving upper trough will swing through the local area tonight, which will drag a cold front through the forecast area overnight. Due to the dry airmass, and little to no moisture return today, not expecting any precipitation with this frontal passage, though it will be felt through gusty winds, and colder temperatures behind it. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s across the NW, with most of the area dropping to 30-35F (upper 30s far SE).
Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday
As of 310am EST Tuesday... Strong cold air advection, and colder temps aloft tomorrow will keep temps in the low to mid 40s across much of the area, with NE NC reaching the upper 40s to around 50, despite mostly sunny skies. Then below freezing temps expected tomorrow night, as winds likely decouple with high pressure briefly pushing into the area. Have lows generally in the mid to upper 20s inland, and the low to mid 30s along the coast.
Highs Thurs 45-50 with more cloud coverage in the afternoon across the south.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Monday
As of 620am EST Tuesday... Models continue to show a series of weak shortwaves moving east across the deep south Thurs night and Fri. Both the ECMWF/CMC keep any rain chances south of the AKQ fa, while the GFS is the outlier but has backed off a bit on the northern extension of any precipitation (about up to the Albemarle Sound). Even the NAM keeps any precipitation well south of the local area at 84 hrs (00Z Fri). This all gets kicked south and east Fri as the next trough.cold front cross the area. Thus, will maintain the a dry forecast. Lows Thurs night 30-35 north, 35-40 south. Pt to mstly sunny Fri with highs 45-50 north, lwr 50s south.
Canadian high pressure builds in from the nw over the weekend. This will send temps below normal with highs both Sat/Sunday upper 30s-mid 40s. Lows in the 20s to around 30 se.
Still relatively low forecast confidence for the Monday/Monday night system, with models still having issues resolving upper low over central Ontario...as well as a strong southern stream system lifting out of the Texarkana region. GFS remains more amplified, and shows a rather significant rain event for the mid-Atlantic, potentially starting off as a wintry mix across the nwarning zones. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and CMC, are a bit slower but eventually depict a similar mix (far NW) to rain scenario. Relatively low confidence day 7 forecast, will try a model blend this far out with the trend for a possible wintry mix Monday morn changing to rain. Lows Sunday night upper 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Monday in the 40s.
As of 300pm EST Tuesday... Pressure gradient has tighten across the area with a surface low pressure centered over New England and high pressure centered over Florida. Winds are southwest this afternoon 15-20 kt, with gusts up to 25 kt across the southern Chesapeake Bay and James River. Winds are expected to relax this evening.
A cold front will move off the coast Wednesday morning. Winds will become northwest behind the front and increase. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in effect for all area waters through Wednesday night. Winds will be NW 20-25 kt. Highest winds will be between 7am and noon across the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers with gusts up to 30 kt. For the Atlantic coast water, highest winds will be from 10am to 2pm. Gusts are expected to reach 35 kt, especially farther offshore. Held off on issuing a Gale Warning because conditions will be brief, a couple of hours during the late morning and early afternoon.
Winds will decrease Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds in behind the cold front. Conditions look to be sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the remainder of the week. Winds are expected to be SW 10-20 kt Thursday. Another cold front will be move off the coast Friday with winds becoming NW 10-20 kt.
As of 630am EST Tuesday... NWS Wakefield (KAKQ) radar transmitter is malfunctioning and will periodically be offline until later this afternoon (01/19/2021). The Newport/Morehead City radar (KMHX) is also offline due to a scheduled generator upgrade. Users are encouraged to access adjacent radars from Blacksburg (KFCX), Raleigh (KRAX), Sterling (KLWX), and Dover AFB (KDOX) through the outage period.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 7pm EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory from 3am to 7pm EST Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 11pm EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.