Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
| Today...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt Until Late Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms Early This Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late This Morning. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt Until Early Morning. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 Foot. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 137pm EDT Wednesday July 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the 18z TAF .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A slow moving cold front will slowly drop through the region today. This will result in a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior southern VA and NE NC. 2) Hotter temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. 3) Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. As of 345am EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A slow moving cold front will slowly drop through the region today. This will result in a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior southern VA and NE NC. An upper level trough is located in vicinity of the New England coast early this morning. Meanwhile, a shortwave feature is tracking across the Mid-Atlantic coast on the southern periphery of the upper trough. At the surface, a stationary to slow moving cold front lingers over southern VA and coastal NE NC. An area of low-level streamline convergence is located in vicinity of the Northern Neck, and this is coincident with an axis of PW values of 2.3-2.4" and modest surface based instability. An area of slow moving to nearly stationary heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms has lingered over the Northern Neck and there have been some reports of flooding early this morning. The latest trends from the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) depict that this area of streamline convergence lingers in vicinity of the western shore of the Ches. Bay through the morning. Therefore, some localized flooding from excessive rainfall will be possible, but also highly localized, and could creep into Hampton Roads. Otherwise, the best chances of showers and afternoon thunderstorms gradually shifts to the SW today as the cold front moves through the region. Coverage of showers/thunderstorms will be less today compared to the prior two days. Hence the flash flood threat will be more limited and localized this afternoon. A few stronger tstm cores are possible, and this could produce some localized damaging wind gusts across interior southern VA and NE NC. Not as hot today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s/around 80F at the coast, to the mid 80s inland. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hotter temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops Thursday and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across northern portions of the area Thursday. The mid/upper level flow becomes more progressive Thursday and Friday. The 500mb flow increases to 30-35kt Thursday afternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave trough, with similar values Friday ahead of a more potent shortwave trough. With strengthening mid level flow and strong surface heating strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. The question on Friday is coverage given more drier downslope flow. Additionally, the 00z/08 HREF has a decent signal for heavy rain from NE of the RIC metro to the lower MD Eastern Shore (and points N). High temperatures reach the upper 80s to mid 90s each day. Dewpoints should drop enough each afternoon to keep heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s, but readings up to ~105F are possible in NE NC (especially along the northern shore of the Albemarle Sound). KEY MESSAGE 3...Near-normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. Chances of afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms continues Saturday as a cold front slowly sags through the region. Otherwise, trending drier Sunday into early next week as high pressure returns in the wake of the cold front. Seasonally hot and humid Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures trend down into the 80s Sunday and Monday, before a warming trend commences Tuesday into the middle of next week. Marine As of 345am EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) marine conditions are expected this week. NE 10-15 kt winds are expected through most of today. - The risk of thunderstorms is lower today but increases again Thursday and Friday. Generally benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds this morning are E-NE 10-15 kt on the north side of a slow moving backdoor cold front. Similar winds continue through today, diminishing slightly and turning to the S-SE this evening into tonight as the front lifts back N. Seas will generally be around 3 ft during this time and around 4 ft 20+ nm offshore. S-SW sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) flow is expected Thursday and Friday with 2-3 ft seas. Another front is forecast to cross the waters Saturday. Winds swing around to the N/NW Saturday and then NE Sunday. While daily chances for storms are anticipated through the week, the chance today is comparatively lower than the past few days. Still, showers this morning could pose an isolated waterspout threat in the western Chesapeake Bay. Chances for more widespread storms, some strong to severe, increase Thursday and Friday. SMWs will be issued as necessary. A moderate rip current risk is forecast today due to nearshore 3 ft waves and choppy surf. A low risk returns for the rest of the week. Equipment Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed today for some additional calibration. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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