Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast


15 - 20


10 - 15


10 - 15


5 - 10

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ631 Forecast Issued: 941 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

Today...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot.
Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.
Sun Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Mon...Sw Winds 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night.
Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
650am EDT Fri August 12 2022

A cold front moves south across the region this morning but will stall across the south this afternoon before moving offshore tonight. Behind the front, high pressure will build across the region for the weekend bringing cooler temperatures and much less humidity. Another cold front is expected to push into the area early next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 650am EDT Friday... Significant pattern change is in store from today into the weekend as an upper trough amplifies over the Northeast. Complicated set of surface features early this morning with a diffuse boundary stalled over the region and a more significant cold front poised to move south later this morning. Ahead of the stronger cold front, a few showers are noted across northern VA and portions of WV and MD. These showers will dip southward this morning and should be confined to the southern half of the area by early afternoon. Areas along and north of I-64 will see much drier air filter southward this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region from the north. CAM guidance continues to show the potential for showers with a few thunderstorms near and south of the VA/NC border this afternoon into the evening before the cooler/drier air finally moves in tonight. Given the combination of cooler air moving in across the north and clouds/showers south, will see significantly cooler high temps across the region today vs what we have been seeing for the last few weeks. Highs are only forecast to rise into the upper 70s and low 80s with lows tonight falling into the mid to upper 50s over the Piedmont and low to mid 60s for the remainder of the area. Skies clear from NW to SE this evening which should provide good viewing conditions for the Perseid meteor shower, which peaks tonight.

Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
As of 345am EDT Friday... Dry and extremely comfortable on Saturday as dew points drop into the 50s. Afternoon high temps only rise into the low 80s despite full August sunshine. Coolest overnight temps are likely Saturday night with lows falling into the mid 50s over much of the area with upper 50s to low 60s near the coast.

Surface high pressure over the region early Sunday will move offshore by mid to late afternoon which will allow low level moisture to increase on SE surface winds. High temps only make it into the low/mid 80s once again. A weak shortwave embedded in the cyclonic flow of the upper trough may allow for a few showers across the western and northwestern counties by early evening with Probability of Precipitation increasing to 30-40% for the northern half of the area overnight. Low temps Sunday night generally in the low to mid 60s.

Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
As of 345am EDT Friday... The upper trough is forecast to maintain its position over the NE CONUS early to mid week with flow aloft becoming NW locally. This will keep temps generally in the upper 70s and low 80s. The best chance for showers and storms looks to be Monday afternoon and evening as a stronger shortwave trough moves toward the region from the NW, bringing another front into the area. Instability looks to be limited Tuesday and Wednesday but will maintain a slight chance of thunder each afternoon/evening given relatively cool temps aloft. Overnight low temps continue in the low to mid 60s with a few low 70s near the coast. Flow aloft flattens to zonal by late in the week with both the GFS (Global Forecast System) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) showing the trough cutting off into a closed upper low centered north of the area.

As of 415am EDT Friday... Early this morning, one cold front has pushed to just south of the VA/NC border. While a second cold front was pushing through northern VA and DE. Winds were mainly WNW around 10 kt or less over the waters. Waves/seas were 1-2 ft.

The second cold front will drop S across the waters this morning into early this afternoon. This will shift winds to the N with winds increasing to 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt behind the front as Cold Air Advection ramps up. Given the N direction of the wind, cold air advection and warm Bay temps, will have SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the Bay until 7pm this evening. Expect similar conditions over the coastal waters, with N winds of 15 to 20 kt with some higher gusts. Held off on a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for now for the lower James River, as confidence in the peak wind and duration of the winds is not as good. Waves and seas increase to 2-3 ft behind the front (seas potentially building to 3-4 ft).

Winds decrease some this evening, although some high res models show another surge later tonight into Sat morning to near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level. However, given lower confidence for this surge, will keep current SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) ending at 7pm this evening, and reevaluate later. N winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt persists into Sat before decreasing to 5-10 kt Sat night into early Sun. High pressure moves offshore Sunday afternoon. allowing winds to transition to the E and SE. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) S winds will prevail on Monday with potential for weak low pressure and another cold front to move through the region Monday night into Tue.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634.