Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt Early This Afternoon, Then Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 20 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 242pm EST Thu Nov 13 2025 Synopsis High pressure builds into the area through Friday. A warm front lifts through the region on Saturday before a cold front crosses the area on Sunday. High pressure briefly returns early next week before another system potentially impacts the region on Tuesday. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 240pm EST Thursday... Key Message: - Breezy and dry this afternoon with Increased Fire Danger until 5PM. Morning clouds have moved out of the region with sunny skies and gusty WNW winds this afternoon. Surface analysis shows 1024mb high pressure building into the region from the W and SW with low pressure off the Canadian Atlantic coast. Compressed gradient between these features is resulting in one more day of gusty winds across the area, especially the northern half of the CWA. Downslope flow and deep mixing of drier air aloft has also allowed RH values to tank into the 20-30% range this afternoon. After coordination with neighboring offices and VA Forestry officials, and IFD was issued from this morning through 5PM for all of our VA counties (minus the VA Eastern Shore where RH values are a bit higher). Winds are forecast to drop off quickly this evening with continued clear skies. Temperatures tonight fall into the low to mid 30s with a few low 40s near the water. Short Term - Friday Through Sunday As of 240pm EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Dry conditions continue with gradually rising temperatures this weekend. - A cold front approaches from the NW Saturday night, bringing chances for light rain across far northern portions of the area. - The (dry) cold front crosses the area Sunday afternoon. Dry and seasonable Friday and Saturday with high pressure remaining in control of the local weather pattern. A warm front moves through the area Saturday afternoon, shifting winds to the SW. High temperatures Friday will range from the low 60s inland to the upper 50s closer to the coast (mid 50s Eastern Shore). Overnight lows Friday night will range from the low 30s to the low 40s. Slightly warmer on Saturday behind the warm front with southerly flow. Highs range from the mid 60s to around 70 inland to the upper 50s to low 60s closer to the coast. A cold front approaches from the NW Saturday night. The best chances of rain will be over the far northern portions of the forecast area, particularly the MD Eastern Shore, with little to no rain expected elsewhere. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast still appears to meager at best for this event and continues to trend drier. An increase in cloud cover and southerly flow ahead of the front will keep temperatures in the 50s for most of the area (upper 40s MD Eastern Shore) Saturday night. The cold front crosses the area Sunday, moving offshore by the afternoon. Sunday will be a warm and breezy day due to downsloping westerly winds in the wake of the front. High temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s for a good portion of the forecast area (possibly mid 70s in spots). Depending on how quickly the drier air moves into the area, Sunday could also see some fire weather concerns. Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday As of 240pm EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Cooler and drier air returns behind the front. - Progressive system impacts the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Sunday night likely stays somewhat breezy in the post-frontal Cold Air Advection regime. Low temps fall into the upper 30s to low 40s overnight. Continued dry and seasonal on Monday with westerly/downslope winds lingering through the afternoon and minimum RH falling into the 20- 30% range. There may be additional fire weather concerns again on Monday but winds may be limiting factor to a greater or more widespread threat. High temps Monday in the 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the 30s as winds decouple. Guidance has come into a bit better agreement regarding a fast- moving system impacting the area Tuesday or Tuesday night. Will stick with the blended guidance showing chance to slight chance Probability of Precipitation across the entire area but it is not looking like a scenario where we get a lot of beneficial Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Clouds and showers will keep Tuesday on the cool side with highs in the 50s for most with low 60s into NC. Wednesday and Thursday look seasonable with afternoon temps in 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s. Marine As of 240pm EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect on the coastal waters N of Parramore Island through this evening due to lingering gusty winds. - Benign marine conditions expected Friday into Saturday before a cold front brings increasing winds/building waves Saturday night through Monday. A large area of high pressure is centered over the TN/OH Valley this afternoon, with weak low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. The pressure gradient between these two features remains relatively tight, especially over the middle/upper Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters where WNW winds are hovering around 15 kt. Frequent gusts of 20-25 kt continue N of Parramore Island on the coastal waters and Small Craft Advisories are in effect here through this evening. Not seeing much in the way of obs or model guidance to support the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) in the northern bay zone, so will cancel with this update. Winds become NW 10-20 kt tonight with the highest speeds well offshore of the nearshore waters in the ocean. Will also note that a brief surge/increase in the winds is possible just after 06z/1am in the Chesapeake Bay, but this would be quite brief/transient and confidence is low. The center of the high shifts SE and situates along the NC/SC coast Friday. Westerly winds range from ~10 kt on the Chesapeake Bay, rivers, Currituck Sound, and southern coastal waters to ~15 kt on the northern coastal waters. Benign marine conditions prevail into Saturday as winds shift gradually become southerly. A cold front will approach and cross the waters Sunday into Sunday night, with elevated SW winds developing Saturday night ahead of the front, veering to the NW Sunday evening and overnight behind the front. Small Craft Advisories are very likely from Saturday night through Monday in both the pre-frontal and post-frontal regimes. At this time, expect the highest winds behind the front early Monday morning with sustained winds 20-25 kt and gusts 30-35 kt. Will monitor model trends for any Gale potential on the northern waters, but current indications suggest winds should fall just shy (the highest probs for frequent >34 kt gusts are N of our area of responsibility). Winds diminish Monday night into the middle of next week with sub- advisory conditions expected. Seas of 2-3 ft (locally 4+ ft out 20 nm) persist into the evening today, remaining around 2 ft Friday and Saturday. With the increased winds Saturday night through Monday, seas build to 3-6 ft, but the offshore wind direction should prevent seas from building too high. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay prevail in the 2-3 ft range or less. Fire Weather As of 1030pm EST Wednesday... Dry and breezy conditions continue on Thursday with min RH values 25-30 percent across inland areas and 30 to 35 percent for the Eastern Shore and immediate coastal locations. Highs will once again be in the lower 60s for most (mid to upper 50s across the Eastern Shore). WNW/W winds remain breezy with gusts to 20 to 30 mph. Therefore, an Increased Fire Danger SPS has been issued through 5PM for all of VA except the Eastern Shore counties. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 5pm EST this afternoon for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for ANZ650- 652. |
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