Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
| Today...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves Around 2 Ft This Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wed Night...Se Winds 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu...W Winds 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 636am EDT Tuesday April 16 2024 Synopsis A cold front drops south of the area this morning. This front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front tonight into Wednesday. Another front crosses the area Thursday with a stronger cold front then expected by the weekend. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 305am EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Cooler and drier today with light east to northeast winds in the wake of a weak cold front. - A few showers are possible tonight as the front starts to move back north as a warm front. Latest analysis shows that the weak cold front has crossed the northwest third of the FA and continues to push southward. Showers have finally dissipated. The front will then cross the remainder of the area between now and 8-9 AM. Temps will only drop into the mid 50s-lower 60s following the FROPA, as winds become NE (could see a very brief period of 20-25 mph gusts near the coast between 5-10 AM). The wind decreases and veers to the east today with partly to mostly sunny skies (mainly due to high clouds). Dew points drop into the upper 30s-40s across much of the area by this afternoon. and any instability should remain across western portions of the VA/NC. Forecast highs are in the mid 70s-80F inland, with mid 60s-mid 70s near the immediate coast. Mostly dry tonight although a few weakening showers will try to push into the area from the west as the front starts to move back north as a warm front. Lows generally in the 50s. Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday As of 305am EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and and isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, with low-end precipitation chances continuing through Thursday. - Not quite as warm as yesterday, but remaining above normal through Thursday. The front continues to move north on Wednesday, but will likely stall in/near the VA Northern Neck or Lower Eastern Shore. Despite mostly cloudy skies, highs likely reach the lower 80s across southern/western portions of the FA, but will fail to get out of the 60s across much of the eastern shore with E-SE flow off the cooler water. In addition, low clouds may hang around through much of the day north of the front. Of course, there is still some uncertainty regarding the temperature forecast on Wed...which will depend on the exact position of the warm front. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible on Wednesday (mainly during the aftn/evening), with a tstm or two also possible. Surface low pressure will likely develop along the stalled front across northern VA/the eastern shore Wednesday night...with some increase in shower coverage expected overnight near the coast. Precip should exit to the E/NE by sunrise on Thursday. Probability of Precipitation are 30-50% though Quantitative Precipitation Forecast should remain on the light side (0.25" or less). Forecast lows Wednesday night in the 50s N/NE and 60s S. Thursday continues to look like the warmest day of the period with highs in the 80s for most of the area (70s across the NE), despite the weak cold front moving through and the LLVL flow becoming NW. Will keep slight chance Probability of Precipitation across the eastern 2/3rds of the area due to the cold frontal passage occuring during the day. Long Term - Thursday Night Through Monday As of 305am EDT Tuesday... -A stronger cold front arrives this weekend, with noticeably cooler temperatures expected by Sunday and Monday. A slightly stronger shot of Cold Air Advection arrives Thu night-Friam as the flow becomes NE as high pressure briefly builds in from the NNE. It will be cooler on Fri (60s near the coast/70s inland) with the NE to E flow. A stronger cold front is forecast to approach from the NW Fri night and the 00z/16 global models now all show the front crossing the area on Saturday. Shower chances increase late Friday ahead of the front and continue through Saturday (although Probability of Precipitation are only 20- 40% at most). There is a chance of thunderstorms Sat afternoon (highest S). However, this will depend on whether the FROPA occurs in the morning or afternoon (a later FROPA would allow for a more widespread tstm threat in the local area). Temps on Saturday will depend on the timing of the FROPA. It will be much cooler behind the front on Sunday and Monday. In addition, a southern stream low pressure system may bring additional rain to the region during this time (highest Probability of Precipitation are in SE VA/NE NC)...although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding this. Otherwise, high pressure slowly builds in from the NW Sunday into Monday. Lows Sunday/Monday night will be cool, but at this time it does not look to be cool enough for widespread frost/freeze potential. Marine As of 335am EDT Tuesday... Early this morning, a weak cold front has pushed into southern VA. Winds were generally NW 5-15 kt behind the front, and SW or W 5-15 kt south of the front across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-4 ft. The front will drop south of the remainder of the area by 7 or 8 am this morning, with winds becoming NE 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the entire waters. Speeds will generally remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds, though there may be a 2-3 hour period where the Bay sees very low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds roughly between 7-10am. Opted not to issue a SCA, since it's so brief and right on the threshold line. Winds will become E or SE 5-10 kt this afternoon. Expecting sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions for most of the week with off and on rain chances through mid-week. Waves will remain around 1-2 ft with seas of 2-3 ft. Seas will build to 4-5 ft for Thu night and Fri, but should subside to 3-4 ft for Sat and Sat night. Climate Norfolk (KORF) set a new daily record high temperature with their high of 90 yesterday (4/15), breaking the previous high of 89 (1941). Wallops (KWAL) set a new daily record high temperature with their high of 87 yesterday (4/15), breaking the previous high of 84 (1967). NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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