Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt Early In The Morning, Then 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se With Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 240am EDT Wednesday April 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No significant forecast changes. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. 2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. 3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". As of 240am EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday. The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday with surface high pressure still well offshore of the Carolina coast, and strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. The resulting persistent return flow will continue to lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. The primary difference from summer will be MUCH lower dew pts which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. Today and tomorrow will likely be the hottest days of the week, with widespread lower 90s (and localized mid 90s possible inland...especially today) given increasing 925-850 mb temperatures and continued deep mixing. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. Some record highs will likely be tied or broken today and potentially Thu. The current records at our long-term climate sites are noted in the climate section below. KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week. With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with VA State Forestry yesterday (Tue), will continue with the Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of VA today (Wed) where afternoon gusts to around 20 mph are co-located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs in the low to locally mid 90s. This generally includes all of central and east central VA from the Piedmont to Williamsburg and interior SE VA. The SPS also includes Northampton County, NC as per collaboration with NCFS yesterday. Similar conditions are likely on Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast (along with ~20 mph gusts). The wind will be slightly less on Friday with more cloud cover due to a passing shortwave, though very little to no precipitation is expected and min RH values will be around 25-40%. KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10". Slightly cooler mid 80s to around 90F on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave (mainly confined to the far N). Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry. Ensemble probs of 0.01" of rain on Friday are 30% at most across northern portions of the FA. One last very warm/hot and dry day on Saturday (lower 90s inland) as upper heigheights build again. The global models and ensembles show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chance of a tstm. Most of the precipitation looks to fall behind the front. Depending on the timing of the FROPA Sunday, afternoon temps could drop into the 60s or even 50s, which could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order of 30 degrees F. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain have increased slightly (to 40-70% across most areas), and are highest NE/lowest SW. Cooler weather returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70F and lows down into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Monday night/Tuesday AM. Can't completely rule out frost well inland next Tueam as high pressure settles over the area. Marine As of 240am EDT Wednesday... - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week with a brief surge in winds Thursday night. - Next round of potential elevated marine conditions return by the end of the weekend. Morning weather analysis 1022mb high pressure continuing to sit off the southeast coast. This is allowing SW winds to prevail around 10 to 15kt across all waters. These winds will continue to prevail through at least Thursday evening. Will note, there could be brief periods of 20 kt gusts especially across the nearshore waters due to day time heating. Waves are remaining between 1-2ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the oceans. A weak cold front is forecasted to move over the waters Thursday evening into Friday. The pressure gradient ahead the front is forecast to slightly tighten. This will assist in increasing the winds around 15 to 20kt with the highest winds over the ocean. Seas will build to roughly 4ft and perhaps 5ft around 20nm. A brief SCA (Small Craft Advisory) cannot ruled out during this time frame. However, confidence is low given the marginal conditions. Looking towards the weekend benign marine conditions are forecasted both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, a much stronger cold front is forecast to move through the waters brining SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions lasting through Monday with the additional surge of cooler and drier air. Climate Record High Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 92 (1941) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976) Norfolk 90 (2024) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896) Salisbury 87 (1941) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976) Eliz. City 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941) Record High Min Temps for 4/15 - 4/18 Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002) Norfolk 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002) Salisbury 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918) Eliz. City 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002) NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11am EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11am EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083- 087>090-092-093-509>522. Marine None. |
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