Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
| Through 7 Pm...S Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt Late In The Evening, Then Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Decreasing To 15 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers With Tstms Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat...S Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se With Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 334pm EDT Tuesday July 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued from central Virginia to the Eastern Shore through 10 PM. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. The main threat is damaging wind gusts with large hail and a couple of tornadoes also possible. 2) Isolated showers and storms are possible on Wednesday, with mainly dry weather to end the week. Temperatures drop to slightly below average late this week. As of 330pm EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. The main threat is damaging wind gusts with large hail and a couple of tornadoes also possible. GOES water vapor channels depict a potent upper trough over NY/PA this afternoon, with a trailing shortwave axis to the SW through WV. At the surface, a cold front is pushing SE over the upper Ohio Valley, and there is still a subtle boundary in vicinity of the Ches. Bay, mainly a wind shift from SSW to SSE. GOES satellite channels depict vigorous convection developing over the mountains. The environment is becoming rather favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Effective bulk shear, per latest Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis is 35-40kt across the northern tier of the area, and SBCAPE is generally 2000-3000J/kg. Limiting factors currently are rather poor mid- level lapse rates and minimal DCAPE. However, these are forecast to improve over the next few hours as thunderstorms push SE into the local area. Additionally, the mid-level flow will only strengthen over the next several hours as the upper trough approaches from the NNW. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued through 10pm for the northern half of the area, and this could be expanded to include at least the counties SW of the RIC metro. Timing is a little later, likely due to morning cloud cover. However, the overall trend of initially more cellular convection transitioning to more a a linear mode is still expected. The most likely timing is from 5-7pm N/NW, 7-9pm from south central VA to Richmond to the MD eastern Shore, and from 8-11 PM in SE VA/NE NC. The main threat is damaging wind gusts, which would be fairly robust whether storms remain more discrete or consolidate into a line/line segments. There is also a large hail threat, mainly across the NW 2/3 of the area where storms are more likely to be discrete at the onset. Lastly, a couple of brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially in vicinity of the aforementioned boundary where the low- level wind will be more backed. Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the entire area, with 30% wind probs being the most significant. Storm motion will be quick, which will act to limit flooding, but localized flash flooding is possible, mainly in urban/flood prone areas, especially closer to the coast where thunderstorms may try to congeal later this evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated showers and storms are possible on Wednesday, with mainly dry weather to end the week. Temperatures drop to slightly below average late this week. There is some uncertainty in regards to rain chances in the wake of the cold front on Wednesday. With the closer proximity of the upper low, there could be some showers on Wednesday, but guidance continued to trend mainly dry. Thursday through Friday looks mostly dry, with near to slightly below average temperatures, as LLVL flow will continue to be out of the NW. Overall, quite pleasant for late July. Tstm chances may return by late this weekend as deeper moisture gradually increases, but it may be more into early next week. Marine As of 200pm EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, and northern coastal waters. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon through this evening with the potential for strong winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning. A cold front will move across the local waters tonight. Ahead of the front, S winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late this afternoon across the local waters and will continue at similar speeds through late this evening. Additionally, a round of showers and thunderstorms will proceed the cold frontal passage and any storms will contain strong winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning through late evening. Winds become W 10-15 kt overnight behind the cold front, and then NW late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt by Wednesday afternoon as high pressure begins to build into the area. After that, a period of benign marine conditions is expected to last into the coming weekend. Waves and seas build to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft respectively by this evening before subsiding Wed. A period of 4-5 ft seas is possible across the northern coastal waters tonight. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634-639-650-652-654. |
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