Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late In The Morning, Then Becoming Ne Early In The Afternoon, Becoming Se Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming S With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Evening, Then Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1004pm EDT Tuesday May 17 2022
A weak dry cold front drops through the local area overnight. High pressure settles over the mid Atlantic Wednesday. Low pressure and a warm front will slowly lift across the region Wednesday night through Thursday. Hot conditions are expected Friday and Saturday.
Near Term - Through Wednesday
As of 730pm EDT Tuesday... Mostly clear across the area as afternoon cumulus dissipates. A dry cold front drops south across the area tonight with SW winds becoming N behind the boundary. Overnight low temps range from the low 50s NW to the low 60s SE.
Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday
As of 145pm EDT Tuesday... Mostly sunny again Wed...though clouds increase late in the day as the next S/W aloft approaches in the progressive W flow. Highs Wednesday will be a bit cooler than Tuesday (especially at the coast) due onshore flow (highs in the u60s-l70s)...while highs will be in the u70s-l80s W of Ches Bay/inland (warmest across south central VA and interior NE NC).
Increasing moisture w/ a CHC for SHRAs and perhaps some elevated tstms Wednesday night into early Thu. Lows in the upper 50s N to the l-m60s S. The current track focuses the highest Probability of Precipitation (40-50% N) with 20-30% S. A surface boundary will linger over the FA Thu resulting in VRB clouds and Probability of Precipitation 20-40% though much of the day will be dry. Highs Thu the u80s-around 90F S and SW to the u70s-l80s N and NE. There remains some disagreement as to where the front stalls and highest Probability of Precipitation for aftn/evening tstms develop. For now have 20-40% Probability of Precipitation Thu afternoon w/ somewhat lower PoPs (20%) NE. At this time, Storm Prediction Center only has the local area in general thunder, though if better model agreement develops would not be surprised to see a MRGL risk Thu given steep low level lapse rates and at least modest shear.
The SE ridge builds Fri w/ SW winds ushering in a hot airmass. Humidity will remain moderate (afternoon dew points ranging through the 60s). Highs 90-95F...except mostly in the 80s at the immediate coast and across the eastern shore (highs at SBY likely challenge 90F).
Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
As of 145pm EDT Tuesday... The SE ridge remains strong Fri night into Sat morning then begins to weaken-shift offshore Sat afternoon. Cannot rule out isolated primarily diurnally-driven storms by Sat evening (highest PoPs W of I 95). Lows Fri night mainly in the u60s-l70s. Highs Sat similar to Fri...90-95F...except 80s at the immediate coast.
Cold front is forecast to push across the local area Sunday into Sunday night...then possibly slows/stalls just S of the FA into Mon. SCT (to possibly NMRS) SHRAs/tstms are expected Sunday into Mon. Highs Sunday u80s S to the l-m80s N and NE. Cooler Monday w/ highs in the l-m70s (u60s at the immediate coast) w/ potentially widespread clouds and highest Probability of Precipitation S. Drying out Monday night into Tue. Highs Tuesday in the l-m70s.
As of 300pm EDT Tuesday... A dry cold front drops through the waters overnight into early Wednesday morning. Winds become NW or N 10 to 15 knots overnight as the secondary cold front crosses the waters. Could see a few wind gusts to 20 knots, especially at the elevated sites across the Chesapeake Bay, but due to the very marginal /short-lived nature am not hoisting any Small Craft Advisories. High pressure settles in Wednesday with winds becoming SSE by evening. Winds then become S and increase to around 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots for Wednesday night, as the high slides off the coast and a warm front lifts north. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed for at least a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Wednesday night to account for the southerly wind surge. Calmer conditions later Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds offshore.
Record High Temperatures are possible Fri/Sat, with RIC appearing to have the best chance. The record highs are listed below:
* Fri 5/20:
* RIC: 96 (1934) * ORF: 98 (1996) * SBY: 98 (1911) * ECG: 98 (1996)
* Sat 5/21:
* RIC: 93 (1962) * ORF: 94 (1996) * SBY: 95 (1911) * ECG: 94 (1996)
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.