Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

S
WINDS
15
KNOTS

THU

W
WINDS
10
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRI

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ631 Forecast Issued: 1005 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Overnight...S Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Thu...W Winds 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers.
Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
917pm EDT Wednesday April 17 2024

Synopsis
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be ending later tonight, followed by dry and warm conditions Thursday. A backdoor cold front drops south of the area late Thursday and Thursday night, with a stronger cold front crossing the region Friday night. Rain chances increase late Sunday into early Monday as low pressure tracks along a stalled frontal boundary across the Carolinas.

Near Term - Through Thursday
As of 845pm EDT Wednesday... The latest WX analysis an upper low slowly shows a stacked low pressure system over Lake Superior, with a downstream upper level ridge weakening over the NE CONUS. Strong surface pressure falls are noted from western PA into the northern mid Atlantic over the past few hrs, and this should help lift a frontal boundary N of the MD eastern shore over through midnight. Little in the way of any shower activity over the FA (some spotty light showers are pushing through the MD eastern shore),. Well upstream, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms is moving across western PA/ to SE OH and northern WV. The main shortwave aloft associated with these shower/thunderstorms is forecast to move east across NY/PA and the northern mid Atlantic overnight with the surface cold front forecast to weaken as it crosses the Appalachians. Will maintain slight chance Probability of Precipitation for most of the CWA, primarily from about 03-07Z, with a small area of higher Probability of Precipitation (30-40%) across the far NE zones closer to the front and slight better forcing. While some elevated thunderstorms will be possible, surface based CAPE is basically zero overnight so no strong storms are expected. Rain chances come to an end during the early morning hours, and the sky will tend to become partly cloudy to mostly clear prior to sunrise, with the exception of perhaps the Eastern Shore. Lows tonight remain mild, mostly ranging from the the upper 50s W (and on the eastern shore) to the lower 60s elsewhere.

With a mostly sunny sky Thursday, along with W to NW winds through most of the morning, expect temperatures to rebound rapidly, with afternoon highs expected to range from the low-mid 80s well inland over VA/NC, to the mid 70s to around 80F closer to the coast (except locally cooler on the eastern shore). Areas along the coast will probably see highs early in the aftn with falling temperatures during the mid- late afternoon period as the flow turns onshore from the NE.

Short Term - Thursday Night Through Friday Night
As of 230pm EDT Wednesday... A weak cold front will move through on Thursday giving way to a mostly dry day. Western areas will be mostly sunny with eastern areas seeing partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be well-above normal with highs reaching the mid 80s inland and mid 70s closer to the coast. A backdoor cold front will attempt to push into part of the area Thursday night into early Friday. This will bring in more cloud cover across the east. Low temperatures Thursday night will be in the upper 40s across the Eastern Shore and northern locations, with lower 50s elsewhere. The backdoor front will retreat as a stronger cold front approaches from the northwest during the day on Friday. Rain chances will return with this front, though not until later Friday afternoon. Rain will be scattered at first before increasing in coverage a bit more after ~8pm. Any chances for thunderstorms will likely be focused across the west/southwest portion of the CWA (County Warning Area) since the backdoor cold front will be retreating across the east. All of that being said, this is not looking like a major rain event, or even moderate rain for that matter. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast forecasts are showing barely .10-.20" in a few spots, though that may even be a stretch. High temperatures Friday will be in the 60s across the Eastern Shore and far northeast behind the backdoor front, with upper 70s to near 80s inland. Lingering showers will be likely into Friday night.

Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
As of 230pm EDT Wednesday... A secondary front will push in on Saturday. There could be some lingering shower activity across the far east during the first half of the day before the boundary moves through. Drier air will rush in behind the front resulting in a mostly clear end to the day, except for the far SE CWA. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the low 70s inland. The stronger shot of Cold Air Advection arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning. Low temperatures will dip into the mid 40s. The change will be most noticeable in the high temperatures starting Sunday though as the current forecast has mid 60s inland with lower 60s along the coast both Sunday and Monday. Models agree slightly better about a southern stream low pressure system moving out of the Gulf Coast states and into the Carolinas later Sunday into Monday. This means that rain chances will return, potentially by Sunday afternoon, and continue Sunday night into Monday. Exact details will be worked out closer to time, but the best chance for rain currently looks to be south of Richmond. Temperatures

Marine
As of 245pm EDT Wednesday... Afternoon analysis shows low pressure over Wisconsin with an associated cold front extending SE then S across the Ohio Valley. High pressure has moved well off the Southeast coast. A warm front has lifted NE across the waters today with winds generally from the S or SE 5-10 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft.

Generally quiet marine conditions continue late this afternoon into the first half of Thursday. A back door cold front is forecast to drop from NE to SW Thursday afternoon into the evening. Winds become N then NW behind the front but are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds. A series of fronts will move through the region Friday into Saturday. The back door front returns north ahead of a stronger cold front set to cross the waters early Saturday. N winds will follow the second front but still below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. Seas may build to 4-5 ft for the coastal waters N of Parramore Island Thursday night into early Friday but with low confidence regarding the magnitude and exact timing.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
None.