Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft. Rain.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Light Rain And Drizzle After Midnight.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Light Rain Or Drizzle In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
704am EDT Sunday Oct 25 2020
High pressure will nose into the area today in the wake of a cold front, allowing for cool and damp conditions. This cool high pressure will weaken and dissipate on Monday. Another front will move into the area later Tuesday through Wednesday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 655am EDT Sunday... A cold front has dropped south of the local area this morning and will stall along the NC coast by late morning. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to nudge south and expand over the area today, helping to reinforce a CAD setup east of the mountains. Latest radar composite shows a swath of rain lifting north thru the northern/NW tier of the FA. This trend will continue through 13z or so based on latest hi-res guidance depicting this trend. By mid to late morning into this afternoon, do expect another batch of rain (currently positioned over central/eastern NC) to move across the entire region from west to east and potentially a decent slug of rain moving north out of NC and crossing SE VA and NE NC from midday into the afternoon. This in response to a potent S/W trough currently lifting north from the Deep South this morning that will move east and cross the Carolinas by this afternoon. So basically all areas will get in on the rain today (some locally heavy especially SE), but with emphasis on the NW tier of our FA this morning and SE areas this afternoon. Will then show lowering PoPs this evening and overnight as the S/W trough exits and the bulk of the precipitation shifts offshore. Will still have some lingering light rain and patchy drizzle tonight with overcast conditions continuing (owing to the CAD wedge setup remaining in place). Additional Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts through today and into tonight will generally be in the 0.25-0.75 inch range (highest SE). However, some locations across the Piedmont did already pick up over an inch of rain as of last evening.
Temps today will be tricky due to the CAD setup. Temps will likely be their highest this morning, then remaining steady or falling slowly into the afternoon. Steady or slowly falling temps will spread SE to Hampton Roads and NE NC through midday, except coastal NE NC should see a little bit of a temp rebound through midday but still remaining cool. Highs today from the upper 40s to around 50 NW to the upper 60s over NE NC. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s NW to around 60 along the coast (where temps may actually rise a couple of degrees overnight).
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
As of 330am EDT Sunday... Drier conditions on Monday as the high pressure over the area weakens and dissipates. The flow will become southerly, albeit light, by late Monday afternoon. This will allow the cool air wedge to break down gradually with a bit of a rebound in temps expected. Still did nudge cloud cover up and temps down far inland sections in anticipation of wedge hanging on Monday morning before starting to break down late. High temps in the mid 60s inland and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast.
Surface high lingers along/just offshore Tuesday, as a weakening front slowly drops across the northern mid-Atlantic toward the local area. Probably remaining dry and turning a bit milder, as any Cold Air Advection holds off until later Tuesday night/Wed. Did introduce slight chance Probability of Precipitation across the far north in the afternoon in anticipation of the next front arriving. Highs from the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. Slight chance Probability of Precipitation Tues night with the fropa. Lows from nr 50 NW to nr 60 SE.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
As of 300pm EDT Friday... Forecast period begins with previously referenced (weak) cold front dropping across the area on Wednesday, with slight chance PoPs for a few stray showers Wed. Model guidance still intent on developing an upper low over the desert southwest, eventually evolving into a cutoff low by the middle of next week.
Considerable model differences remain, with the GFS still on the more progressive side of the guidance envelope, showing the system getting picked up and absorbed into the east coast mean trough. The 12z/24 CMC/12z ECMWF, like their respective ensemble means are a bit slower and more amplified. Have stayed away from the very high Probability of Precipitation on the NBM for now given this uncertainty. Nevertheless do nudge rain chances up into high end chance range Wednesday night/Thursday morning with at least slight chance Probability of Precipitation persisting through the remainder of the long term forecast period. Have capped Probability of Precipitation in the 40-50% for the time being until a more solid model consensus is attainable.
For temps, expect a slight cool down behind the front Wednesday and Thursday, with highs generally ranging from the mid 60s north to the low to mid 70s south. Early morning lows through the period generally range through the 50s to around far 60 SE.
As of 350am EDT Sunday... A cold front is pushing swd across NE NC early this morning. The wind is NNE 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt behind the front for the Bay, lower James, and ocean north of the VA/NC border, with 10-15kt for the upper James, York, and Rappahannock rivers. Seas are mainly 4-5ft south to 5-6ft north, with 3-4ft waves in the Bay. High pressure builds N of the region today and tonight. Meanwhile, the cold front will push south through the Carolinas today with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. This will help maintain a NE wind of 15-20kt into this afternoon for the Bay, lower James, and ocean, with the remaining rivers and Currituck Sound remaining 10- 15kt. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the Bay and lower James have been extended through 4 pm this afternoon. The wave of low pressure tracks off the coast tonight with the wind gradually becoming N 8-12kt (locally NE off the MD coast). Low pressure pushes farther offshore Monday as weak high pressure builds in the region with the wind becoming NNW 5-10kt. Seas are expected to build to 5-7ft today and then subside to 4-5ft tonight. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the ocean continue through tonight. The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) N of Parramore Is. may need to be extended into Monday, but confidence is not high enough at this time. Weak high pressure moves offshore Monday night and Tuesday. Another cold front potentially settles into the region during the middle of next week with strong low pressure tracking along the boundary later in the week.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Monday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-638. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.