Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
|Overnight...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Fri Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers After Midnight.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
956pm EST Monday Jan 20 2020
Cold high pressure builds across the region through midweek. Much colder air spills across the region tonight through Tuesday...with temperatures slowly moderating for the latter half of the week.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
As of 1000pm EST Monday... Latest weather analysis reveals strong/cold 1044+mb surface high pressure over the northern and central plains. Winds have diminished tonight as the pressure gradient has weakened over the area. Temperatures have quickly falling into the 20s (temperatures remain in the low 30s near the southeast VA coast and northern Outer Banks). Winds chills will be in the teens tonight, not as low as last night with winds diminishing.
Bay streamer has redeveloped over the Chesapeake tonight, cannot rule our a few flurries across Norfolk, VA Beach, Chesapeake tonight. Otherwise, the rest of the area will see clear skies.
Otherwise, clear and cold tonight. Latest model guidance has trended toward winds not totally decoupling once again tonight, which should keep minima from falling quite as far as they could otherwise. Lows mainly in the upper teens to low 20s inland...mid to upper 20s SE coast. Some mid teens possible in typically cooler spots.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Thursday
As of 250pm EST Monday... Continued cold and dry Tuesday, with highs remaining below normal despite plenty of sunshine. Thickness tools still mesh well with NBM and MOS guidance has consolidated in the mid to upper 30s, which also fits persistence quite well. Clear and cold once again Tuesday night with early morning lows in the low to mid 20s...to around 30 SE.
Models still showing positively tilted shortwave dropping from the mid-south to the GA/SC coast Tuesday night, eventually forming a closed low Wednesday morning. Models remain in good agreement in skirting this wave quickly farther offshore, with cyclogenesis occurring well away from the local area. Thus, expect any sensible weather impacts to be well away from the region.
Behind this wave, modifying surface high builds over the Mid-Atlantic and northeast CONUS on Wednesday. Thicknesses begin to climb, signaling the start of a moderating temp trend that will continue through the upcoming weekend.
Slightly warmer Wednesday with highs climbing to near normal Wed, and just above on Thursday. Highs Wednesday in the low to mid 40s, under a mainly sunny sky. Lows Wednesday night will inch up a few degrees as well with generally low/mid 20s expected across the region. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s under a partly to mostly clear/sunny sky.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Monday
As of 400pm EST Monday... The end of the work week will be dry and mild, with high pressure at the surface and aloft over the region. At the same time, an upper-level trough will be digging south into the Midwest/Central US. The trough will become a closed low and cut off from the main upper-level flow and slowly migrate east. As the closed low pressure aloft moves towards the east coast, it will likely stay northwest of the southern Mid-Atlantic. However, a surface low will likely develop east of the Appalachian Mountains and track from SW to NE across VA/MD. This will bring an area of rain through the region Saturday morning. As the surface low moves north of the area, rain will exit the area for Saturday evening/night. However, the low pressure system aloft will still be nearby and may give areas across central and northeastern VA and central Delmarva a few rain showers Saturday afternoon/evening. A NW, downslope, low will begin late Saturday/Sunday and dry the area out.
Throughout the Long Term period, temperatures will be near average to slight above average. Friday's high temperatures will be in the 50s with lows in the 20s/30s Friday morning. As rain moves into the area, temperatures and dew points will increase, temperatures on Saturday morning will range from the upper 40s across northeast NC and southeast VA to mid 30s across central VA and MD Eastern Shore. Temperatures during the day on Saturday will be dependent on the exact track of the surface low pressure. High may reach 60 across Hampton Roads and northeast NC, while a CAD wedge may develop in the central VA Piedmont, keeping temperatures in the 40s. Temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be close to average for late January, highs in the mid-upper 40s and lows in the 20s/30s.
As of 400pm EST Monday... Late this afternoon. high pressure was building in from the NW. Strong Cold Air Advection is resulting in a NNW wind of 15-25 kt for the Bay/ocean/Currituck Snd, and 10-15 kt elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft with 3-4 ft waves in the Bay. The center of the high will continue to build toward the area from the NW tonight into Wed morning, then builds right over the region late Wednesday through Thu. As a result, N winds will continue to be 15-25 kt over the Bay, Ocean, and Currituck Snd tonight into at least early Wednesday morning. Waves will be 2-4 ft and seas will be 4-7 ft. Thus, have adjusted SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines in most of these areas through at least Tuesday afternoon or into early Wednesday morning. Low pressure develops well off the Southeast Coast Tuesday night into Wed, with the wind becoming NNE with speeds 10-15 kt N to 15-20 kt southern Bay, and 20-25 kt for the ocean S of Cape Henry. This will likely maintain at least 5-6 ft seas S, and could remain 6-8 ft Tue/Wednesday off the northern Outer Banks. Elsewhere, seas subside to 3-4 ft, with 2-3 ft waves in the Bay.
High pressure builds right over the region Wednesday night into Thu and slowly slides offshore Fri. Low pressure and an associated cold front passes through the area Fri night into Sat.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Wednesday for ANZ632>634- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Tuesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652.