Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
| Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late This Evening And Overnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt, Increasing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft, Building To 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft After Midnight. Rain. |
| Mon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 303pm EST Wednesday Feb 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rainfall totals have increased for the late weekend low pressure system this model cycle. .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail tonight through Saturday. 2.) Low pressure tracks near the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the potential for widespread rainfall. As of 300pm EST Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and near to below average temperatures prevail tonight through Saturday. A cold front moved through the area earlier today, with a brief lag in the CAA. Current temperatures are very mild for this time of year, with highs of 60-65F inland, and 50-55F along the coast. The stronger Cold Air Advection arrives tonight, bringing temperatures back down below average through the end of the week. Temperatures will trend back to around normal on Saturday as winds become SW and increase ahead of an approaching low pressure system. With high pressure remaining largely dominant through the week, dry and mostly clear conditions will prevail through the remainder of the week and through the start of the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracks near the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the potential for widespread rainfall. While confidence has increased that a southern stream low pressure system will impact the area late this weekend into early next week, the exact evolution and track of the low are still somewhat uncertain. There remains notable differences in the evolution and location of the low between ensembles, with a wide spread of possible scenarios. The deterministic GFS (Global Forecast System) continues to splits the upper trough, with one piece sliding across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with the other becomes a closed low dropping SE across FL heading toward the Bahamas. Meanwhile, the CMC and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) remain consistent in showing one primary 500mb trough that becomes considerably more organized than the lows depicted by the GFS. Any outliers hinting at the possibility of snow across mainly our NW piedmont have backed off and kept any wintry precipitation to our north with the 12z guidance. Current NBM probabilities of seeing any snow (>0.1") remain at or below 20% for areas west of I-95, with 0% for the remainder of the forecast area. Overall, rain is much more heavily favored for this event. Despite the difference in model differences, the remains good agreement that PW values (Precipitable Water values) will exceed 200% of the normal values for this time of year, ranging between roughly 1-1.5" across the region during this event. Being this far out from the event, exact Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals are not yet forecast, but ensembles are favoring the southern portion of the forecast area at this time, with probabilities of seeing 1+" ranging from 30-50%. Regardless of the exact amount, this rainfall will be beneficial for the entire area, especially as fire season commences on February 15th. Dry conditions are then expected by Tuesday into the middle of next week as high pressure builds in behind the late weekend system. The NBM shows high temperature ranging from the mid 40s NW to lower 50s SE Sunday. Likely, high temperatures will struggle to get out of the upper 30s to lower 40s along and NW of the low track, with 50s concentrated to the SE of the low track. There is little to no Cold Air Advection behind this system and temperatures are expected to moderate above average by the middle of next week. Marine As of 300pm EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remain in effect for late tonight into Thursday afternoon for all local waters as NW winds and seas increase due to strong cold air advection. - Another round of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is possible for the bay as a second surge of drier air moves into the area early Friday morning. - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions prevail Friday and through the majority of the weekend as high pressure remains dominant. The next system approaches the area Sunday and could bring additional headlines. Afternoon weather analysis shows the cold front from the low to the north just south of the area. Winds have shifted out of the north, but remain around 5 to 10 kt as the pressure gradient over the area remains weak and the colder and drier air remains further north. Seas remain low with around 1 ft in the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean. Tonight, winds will increase as the pressure gradient tightens and the colder and drier air enters the area. Winds increase out of the north between 15 to 20 kt with gusts upwards of 25 kt. There is also likely the chance for some gusts upwards of 30 kt across the coastal waters. Seas will also begin to increase tonight with waves peaking around early Thursday morning. Waves are expected to be between 3 to 4 ft across the bay and 3 to 5 ft across the coastal waters. There could be the possibility of waves nearing 6 ft across the the southern two ocean zones. Due to conditions deteriorating, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect from tonight into Thursday afternoon. By Thursday afternoon, conditions will improve. However, there may be a secondary surge of colder and drier air that could bring gusts upwards of 20 kt across the bay. However, confidence at this time is low to extend the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the bay is low at this time. Friday through Sunday, benign marine conditions are expected across the coastal waters as high pressure remains in place. For Sunday into Tuesday there could be a potential systems that brings elevated marine conditions across the local waters. However, due the spread in models there continues to remain some uncertainty. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 4pm EST Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 4pm EST Thursday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 1pm EST Thursday for ANZ633- 635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Thursday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 1pm EST Thursday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 4pm EST Thursday for ANZ656- 658. |
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