Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Becoming E Late. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 200pm EDT Tuesday Jun 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 18Z TAF/aviation discussion. A Marginal Risk for Isolated strong to severe storms has been introduced over coastal portions of the VA Northern Neck and Lower Eastern Shore, mainly for late this evening and overnight tonight. Trends continue to favor a later start time for showers and storms on Thursday. This results in a hotter, drier day Thursday and have nudged up temperatures and heat index values. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and storms are possible across the northern tier of counties this evening into early Wednesday. A low-end threat for an isolated strong to severe storms also exists over the Northern Neck and Lower Eastern Shore late tonight. 2) Heating up on Thursday, then shower/storm chances return Thursday evening, potentially lingering into Friday morning. 3) Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday night. Lingering showers are possible Friday morning. Gradual clearing late Friday and Friday night looks to give way to a mainly dry, pleasant weekend. As of 200pm EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1....Scattered showers and storms are possible across the northern tier of counties this evening into early Wednesday. A low-end threat for an isolated strong to severe storms also exists over the Northern Neck and Lower Eastern Shore late tonight. Low pressure over the NC OBX will lift northeast offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. As it does so, it will pull a stalled frontal boundary back north as a warm front this evening into early Wednesday morning. There is decent agreement among the 12z CAMs that this feature will trigger weak convection late tonight. Scattered showers are possible, mainly along the coast, with a stronger storm or two possible within a marginally unstable environment just ahead of the front over the Northern Neck and Lower Eastern Shore. Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) over this northeastern portion of the forecast area, primarily for small hail and gusty winds. KEY MESSAGE 2...Heating up on Thursday, then shower/storm chances return Thursday evening, potentially lingering into Friday morning. Behind the warm front, a warmer and slightly more humid airmass pushes into the region Wednesday through Thursday, maintaining mainly dry conditions through at least midday Thursday. An upper trough and associated cold front will approach from the west on Thursday, allowing compressional heating to ramp up ahead of the boundary. Highs look to warm into the upper 80s to around 90F on Wednesday, then surge well into the mid-to-upper 90s on Thursday on increasingly breezy SSW winds. Heat indices top out around 100F on Wednesday. For Thursday, deep afternoon mixing from W-SW downslope flow should help to mix out moist early morning low-level dewpoints, making for at least a drier feeling afternoon. Nevertheless, very warm to hot ambient temps should still yield Heat Index values in the 100 to 105F range. Heat headlines may ultimately be needed for portions of the area. For now will outline heat potential in the HWO. KEY MESSAGE 3...Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday evening. Lingering showers are possible Friday morning. Gradual clearing late Friday and Friday night looks to give way to a mainly dry, pleasant weekend Model trends continue to lean slower with the frontal passage Thursday night into Friday. Given this slower timing and the pre-frontal downslope flow, the window for showers and storms has also trended later into the evening and overnight hours. While later diurnal timing typically mitigates the severe threat, a window remains during the evening where lingering instability and high DCAPE (exceeding 1000 J/kg) could support a few strong to severe downbursts, focused along a shortwave trough lifting across the region ahead of the main front. In terms of kinematics/storm mode, 25-30 kt of deep-layer bulk shear forecast across our northern tier favors a more discrete or loosely-organized multicell storm mode, with the stronger forcing and higher shear profiles displaced to our north and northeast. Because of the inverted-V signature evident on forecast soundings, indicative of the high-DCAPE environment locally, any storms that do push into our area are more likely to be cold-pool dominant. For that reason, the prevailing thought at this time is that the primary threat will be from localized convective outflows or gust fronts producing isolated damaging wind gusts. The highest probabilities for this remain focused across the VA Piedmont into the RIC metro and Northern Neck for Thursday evening. Will outline this severe threat in the HWO. Another northern stream shortwave, attendant to a potent upper low over central Canada, will ultimately push the slow-moving cold front through the region Friday morning. Rain is likely during this period, as Gulf moisture overruns the boundary as it drops through the region. While some welcome measurable rainfall does seem likely, this synoptic setup typically limits the period for appreciable rainfall, as rapid clearing becomes increasingly likely Friday afternoon and night as the front sweeps south. Furthermore, the signal from multi-model guidance is trending toward keeping moisture associated with a potential tropical system well to our south over the Gulf/Southeast, offering no additional rainfall opportunities. In terms of sensible weather, trends continue to favor a dry weekend, with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels. Marine As of 305am EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through Wednesday. - A period of elevated SW winds is likely Wednesday night into Thursday night with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible. Early this morning, high pressure is building over the waters. Winds range from NW ~5 to 10 knots over the northern half of the waters, to light and variable south. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. Benign marine conditions are expected today through Wednesday. Winds become SE today, averaging 5 to 15 knots, and become S to SW on Wednesday with similar wind speeds to today. Wednesday night through Thursday: SW winds increase, averaging 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25+ knots as a cold front begins to approach from the NW and strong low pressure develops north of the area. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed for the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers, as well as a majority of the coastal waters starting Thursday morning and continuing into at least the first half of Thursday night. Across the far offshore waters, especially south of the VA/NC border, wind gusts may approach 35 knots for a few hours Thursday evening into Thursday night, latest local wind probs show a ~50-60% for these 35 knot gusts. A cold front drops across the local waters on Friday with winds shifting to the N/NW behind the front (sub- SCA). A cold front drops south across the local waters on Fri with winds shifting to N/NW behind the front. Winds diminish Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. Winds and seas may increase again early next week as another system approaches the region. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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