Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Until Late Afternoon. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. Showers Likely Late. |
| Tonight...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft. |
| Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 652am EDT Sat April 26 2025 Synopsis A cold front approaches the region today, allowing for scattered showers and storms, particularly this afternoon into early this evening. Drier and cooler weather returns for Sunday and Monday, followed by another warmup with above normal temperatures heading into the middle of next week. An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 650am EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms are expected today as a cold front moves across the area. - Locally strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into early this evening. - Breezy today with SW winds gusting to 20-25 mph. Early morning surface analysis depicted a warm front N of the local area with scattered showers moving across mainly W portions of the FA. Temps as of 640am were generally in the mid-upper 60s. An elongated shortwave trough moves into the area later this morning into early this afternoon. The associated height falls will allow for scattered showers (and perhaps a few embedded storms) to move in from the W later this morning. The highest chance for rain is generally N of US-460 this morning (50-60% PoPs). Convection tapers off briefly behind the shortwave with some partial clearing expected this afternoon (best chance across W portions of the FA) as high temps rise into the lower 80s. Any clearing will help boost instability. Confidence has increased in the chance for afternoon development of scattered thunderstorms today ahead of and along an approaching cold front. While scattered storms could occur across most of the FA, the highest confidence remains generally E of I-95 where 60-80% Probability of Precipitation reside. Additionally, there could be several rounds of storms. Storms likely congeal into a line across SE VA/NE NC this evening, quickly pushing offshore by late evening. 00z CAMs have come into better agreement on the overall setup and now show afternoon MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg (SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg) and 25-30 kt of 0-6km shear. Decent low-level lapse rates and seasonally high moisture (dew points in the mid 60s) should support a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds the primary hazard. Small hail is also possible, but should remain below severe criteria given bowing line segments and weak mid- level lapse rates. As such, Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire FA under a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe storms this afternoon into this evening. Additionally, gusty SW winds are possible outside of any convection today with gusts up to 25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the coast and across the Eastern Shore possible. Skies clear tonight behind the storms and cold front passage as cooler, drier air moves in. A brief period of breezy NNW winds is possible tonight behind the cold front with gusts up to 25 mph possible (up to 30 mph possible along the coast and across the Eastern Shore). Lows tonight in the mid 40s NW to low-mid 50s SE are expected. Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night As of 355am EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Cooler and drier weather returns early this week. Much cooler and drier weather arrives Sunday with highs in the lower 70s (upper 60s across the Eastern Shore) expected. Temps moderate some on Monday with highs in the mid 70s for most. Lows in the mid 40s inland (mid 50s along the coast) Sunday night and upper 40s to lower 50s Monday night are expected. Additionally, Sunday will be breezy behind the cold front with NW winds gusting to ~20-25 mph inland and 30-35 across the Eastern Shore. High pressure builds in Monday with light winds and clear skies. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday As of 355am EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Warm weather is expected this week with highs well above normal most days. - An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week with scattered (mainly diurnal) showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Aloft, a tall ridge builds across the East Coast through late week before a trough approaches from the W on Fri. At the surface, high pressure slides offshore Tue. This will allow for a warmup with well above normal temps expected through the week. Highs in the low-mid 80s Tue, mid-upper 80s Wed, 70s NE to mid 80s SW Thu, and mid 80s Fri are expected. Low pressure tracks well to the N of the local area (in Canada) Tuesday into Wed, pushing a cold front towards the local area Wed. Recent trends have been for a slower/weaker frontal passage with the front now potentially stalling near/over the local area Wednesday evening before lifting back N as a warm front on Thu. As such temps Thu remain uncertain (depending on how far S the front reaches Wednesday night and how quickly it lifts N on Thu). For now, the NBM has highs in the mid 60s along the MD coast and upper 70s to the Northern Neck with 80s farther SW. Scattered showers and storms are possible Wednesday and Thu afternoons/evenings both ahead of/along the cold front on Wednesday and with the front as it lifts N as a warm front on Thu. An area of low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes on Fri underneath a large trough. As such, additional scattered showers/storms are possible Fri afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front. Marine As of 355am EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected today with south to southwest winds. Thunderstorms ahead of a cold front could necessitate SMWs during the afternoon and evening. - Winds become NNW at around 25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt tonight into early Sunday behind a cold front. - SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are in effect for all marine zones starting either this morning or late this evening and continuing through Sunday. - Calmer conditions return Sunday night into the first half of next week. Early this morning, deepening low pressure is tracking across the eastern Great Lakes with high pressure now well offshore. The trailing cold front is approaching the Appalachians at this hour and will continue to move toward the waters today. Winds have become S- SSW and have increased to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain in effect starting now for the bay, James River, and coastal waters N of Parramore Island (due to seas that are expected to increase this morning). SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) run through Sunday and continue for the remainder of the waters for the post-frontal winds starting tonight. Winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by 6-7 AM...and am still expecting a slight decrease in wind speeds (back to ~15 kt) this afternoon before the cold front crosses the waters tonight. Tstms are possible from 3-11pm along and just ahead of the front, which could necessitate SMWs. The front (with decent Cold Air Advection for late April with 925mb temps dropping to 2-6C) is forecast to quickly cross the waters between 8 PM- midnight. Winds become NNW following the FROPA and are still expected to average 25 kt with gusts of 30-35 kt between midnight and 10am Sunday morning. While occasional low-end gale gusts are possible (especially on the bay at elevated terminals), not expecting these to be frequent enough (or persist long enough) to warrant any Gale headlines. The guidance has remained relatively consistent over the past 24 hours with even the 00z/26 CAMs (ARW/FV3/NAMNest) suggesting solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions with occasional 35 kt gusts. Local wind probabilities for >34 kt gusts remain 20-30% north and around 10-15% S of Windmill Pt/Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisory winds continue through most of Sunday, likely dropping to ~15 kt by Sunday evening. While there will be an additional weak push of Cold Air Advection Sunday night, wind speeds are forecast to remain just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through the night with probs of >18 kt winds remaining aob 15%. Therefore, did not extend the SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) past 4-7pm Sunday. Much lighter winds are expected on Mon/Tuesday as high pressure builds over the waters. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) potentially return early Wednesday in elevated SW flow, though uncertainty is high at this time range. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 1-3 ft and seas of 3-4 ft S/4-5 ft N are expected today. Seas build to 4-6 ft by late tonight behind the front, with 3-5 ft waves on the bay. Waves/seas remain around SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria on Sunday before dropping below criteria Sunday evening. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634-637- 638-650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 4pm EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 4pm EDT Sunday for ANZ635-636-654-656-658. |
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