Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| Through 7 Pm...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Late. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. Rain. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 5 Kt, Increasing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 241pm EST Wednesday Feb 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Probabilities for some wintry weather early next week have increased some, though confidence is very low in precipitation type, timing, and impacts. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Milder for the rest of this afternoon into tonight. 2) Widespread rainfall remains likely Thursday, with the highest rainfall amounts for the southern half of the area. 3) Milder weather is expected this weekend, particularly Saturday. Watching the potential for a winter weather system early next week. As of 240pm EST Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Milder for the rest of this afternoon into tonight. An upper-level trough is situated just to our W this afternoon, with W/WSW flow aloft. This is bringing rather widespread cloud cover to the area, though visible satellite imagery shows some gradual clearing occuring. There were also a few light rain showers/sprinkles across S-central VA but these have generally moved offshore/diminished. While temps were rather mild to start the day, the cloud cover slowed the warming for most of the morning. However, now that some sunshine is filtering through, temps are rising and should continue rising into the mid-upper 50s (locally around 60 F) for today's highs. Additional cloud cover is expected tonight as a shortwave and wave of low pressure at the surface approach from the W. This feature will bring widespread rain to area Thursday but most of this should hold off until the morning. Relatively mild with lows in the 40s tonight, except in the mid-upper 30s on the MD Eastern Shore. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread rainfall remains likely Thursday, with the highest rainfall amounts for the southern half of the area. Still expecting a widespread rainfall for most of the forecast area Thursday. For the synoptic setup, the digging shortwave through the central CONUS will trigger weak low pressure development along a frontal boundary. The wave moves through the local area Thursday morning and afternoon, pushing offshore Thursday night. The highest rain totals, which could be in excess of 1", are still favored from far southern VA into NE NC. In fact, a good portion of the hi-res guidance paints a stripe of ~1.5" Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from central NC into our NE NC counties. This is supported by the 12z HREF probability matched mean, which actually supports localized rainfall totals up to 2". The global model guidance (including the ensembles) are a bit lower but have generally trended up with the 0.5" and 1" exceedance probabilities. Lower rain totals are anticipated in the I-64 corridor NW of SE VA, including areas to the east on the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Regardless, this will be another beneficial rainfall given the ongoing drought over NE NC (and the abnormally dry conditions elsewhere). These antecedent conditions should mitigate any excessive rainfall concerns. The temperature forecast continues to be somewhat uncertain. While the rain will temper temperatures to some degree, most of the model guidance shows temps warming into the lower-mid 50s S of the boundary (over NE NC and especially near the Albemarle Sound). Temps will likely struggle to get out of the 40s N of the boundary for central and northern portions of the forecast area. The forecast highs will probably end up being a few degrees to warm and likely near the 10-25th percentiles, but will maintain the NBM for now given some lingering uncertainties in the frontal placement. The front drops S as a cold front Thursday night with overnight lows in the 30s (upper 20s possible MD Eastern Shore). KEY MESSAGE 3...Milder weather is expected this weekend, particularly Saturday. Watching the potential for a winter weather system early next week. High pressure attempts to build downward into the Mid-Atlantic Friday. However, the frontal boundary may stall along the SC/GA coast with a lingering coastal trough likely in place through Saturday. While most of the area likely remains dry Friday-Saturday, a few showers are possible in NE NC and along the immediate coast of SE VA. These would be very light with little, if any, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. The 00z NAM showed a widespread precipitation field across the entire area Saturday, though this is a significant outlier compared to the rest of the GEFS/GEPS/EPS grand ensemble. Indeed, like poetry, the 12z NAM indeed corrected well SE. Mild temperatures are expected Saturday given building mid-level heigheights and weak surface high pressure offshore. Forecast highs are in the low-mid 60s inland, with light onshore flow keeping areas near the coast a bit cooler and in the upper 50s. For Sunday, a backdoor cold front appears likely to drop southward through most of the area. Therefore, there is higher uncertainty in the temperature forecast than usual. At this time, will show highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s N to lower-mid 60s S/SW. The actual temperature distribution will likely be a bit more extreme as some guidance shows temps Sunday afternoon ranging from the 40s N to lower 70s S. Will refine the temp forecast over the next few days as exact details regarding the backdoor cold front become clear. The pattern still looks to become more unsettled as we head into early next week with additional chances for either rain or wintry weather possible. The current consensus is for surface high pressure to situate NE of the area, with a wedge of cooler air in place across the Mid-Atlantic. Most of the deterministic and ensemble guidance depict a series of shortwaves moving through in the progressive flow aloft, potentially bringing additional precipitation to the area. Precip type will be heavily dependent on the depth of cold air in place and the exact track of these systems. Regardless, there is at least some threat for additional wintry weather during this timeframe. Snow or even sleet and freezing rain may be possible over portions of the area depending on the depth of the cold air. The 12z model suite continues to favor the northern tier of the area for the best winter weather potential with the EPS/GEFS quite similar with regard to snowfall probabilities. Note that, at this time, significant impacts appear unlikely with more minor/nuisance- level impacts favored. We will keep monitoring the latest data over the next few days should any of this thinking change. Beyond early next week, there is increasing confidence in Spring-like temperatures. Marine As of 235pm EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - A cold front drops southward across the waters on Thursday with winds becoming northeast behind the boundary. - Marine fog could develop and become locally dense ahead of the cold front Thursday. Occluded low pressure is noted over eastern Ontario with a cold front extending into the Midwest. High pressure near Florida has allowed for SW winds across the local waters, mainly in the 10-20 kt range. Seas are 2-4 ft with waves in the bay averaging 1-3 ft. The latest guidance and observations show less than marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions across the region this afternoon. All SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines have been cancelled as winds continue to decrease and seas have not really even approached the 5 ft threshold in SW flow this afternoon. A cold front is expected to cross the waters on Thursday with potential for areas of marine fog ahead of the boundary. The primary area of fog concern will be the southern half of the Chesapeake Bay and adjacent portions of the York/James Rivers as well as the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound. The front is forecast to drop south of the local waters by mid to late afternoon, bringing the fog threat to an end. Winds behind the front become NE and increase to ~10 kt. Winds may briefly build to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt near and north of Cape Charles Light offshore. Generally benign marine conditions are expected this weekend ahead of another backdoor front that drops southward late Sunday. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for ANZ632- 634-638-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 7am this morning to 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ633-636-637. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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