Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Pm...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft. Rain.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N And Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Drizzle Likely In The Evening. Rain Until Early Morning. Areas Of Drizzle After Midnight. Areas Of Fog After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Areas Of Drizzle In The Morning. Areas Of Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
353pm EDT Sunday Oct 25 2020
Cool high pressure will weaken and dissipate on Monday. Another front will move into the area later Tuesday through Wednesday.
Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
As of 350pm EDT Sunday... Latest analysis reveals a weakening cool front over the coastal Carolinas this afternoon. to the north, 1030+mb surface high pressure over new England continues to ridge south into the region with resultant CAD wedge locking the piedmont region in low clouds and drizzle this afternoon. Aloft, a couple of weak southern stream shortwaves are lifting across the SE/Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. focusing a broad swath of light to moderate overrunning moisture over the SE half of the area. Majority of rain today has been focused across the Tidewater area and NE NC mainly along a coastal trough just offshore.
WV satellite showing mid-level drying transitioning to the coast late this afternoon. which will put an end to accumulating rain across the area from w to e. However, given the ongoing cool air spilling into the area, plentiful llevel moisture and CAD wedge locked in place, expect a cloudy, cool, and raw night with drizzle and fog tonight/overnight. Early morning lows in the mid 40s well inland, upper 40s to low 50s for most, with mid to upper 50s far SE over eastern Tidewater and coastal NE NC.
Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through Tuesday Night
As of 350pm EDT Sunday... Drier conditions on Monday, as the high pressure over the area weakens and dissipates. The flow will become southerly, albeit light, by late Monday afternoon. This will allow the cool air wedge to break down gradually with a bit of a rebound in temps expected. Cloud cover hangs on for much of the day and temps accordingly remain on the low end of the guidance envelope for Monday in anticipation of wedge hanging in the morning before starting to break down late. High temps in the mid 60s inland and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Clearing and a bit milder Monday night with early morning lows in the 50s to near 60.
Surface high lingers along/just offshore Tuesday, as a weakening front slowly drops across the northern mid-Atlantic toward the local area. Still appears the area will remain dry, with temps turning a bit milder, as FroPa and any Cold Air Advection holds off until later Tuesday night/Wed. Did introduce slight chance Probability of Precipitation across the far north in the afternoon in anticipation of the next front arriving. Any Quantitative Precipitation Forecast would be on the order of a few hundredths at most, with highs from the upper 60s north to mid 70s. Slight chance Probability of Precipitation Tues night with the FroPa. Lows from ~50 NW to upper 50s to around 60 SE.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
As of 300pm EDT Sunday... Models and their respective ensemble means are in a bit better agreement with handling not only the now well-resolved upper low over the four corners region, but the handling of moisture from TC Zeta.
While some typical temporal and spatial differences remain at this time range, models are in general agreement in absorbing the energy from Zeta into the broad upper low. The 12z/25 GFS has become a bit more progressive vs the remaining probabilistic guidance. Accordingly, it is a bit quicker to bring rain back in Wednesday into Wednesday night. For now, will push a bit closer to the NBM numbers in bringing rain in Wednesday night, with likely Probability of Precipitation now in place for periods of rain Thu/Thu night as the surface low pushes across the region. the question at that point is how quickly the parent low clears out on Friday, with clearing conditions for Friday night and Saturday, as surface high builds east from the Ohio Valley.
For temps, expect a slight cool down behind the front Wednesday and Thursday, with highs generally ranging from the mid 60s north to the low to mid 70s south. Early morning lows through the period generally range through the 50s to around far 60 SE. Cold...albeit modifying...high pressure builds over the region on Saturday, with the coldest night of the next week looking to come next weekend, just in time for Halloween and the following transition to EST.
As of 350pm EDT Sunday... Late this afternoon. a trough of low pressure is offshore of the GA/Carolina coast while high pressure is building swd toward north- central VA. Winds are still NE 15-20kt with gusts of 20-25kt across the Bay, lower James, and ocean north of the VA/NC border, with 10- 15kt NE winds on the upper James, York, and Rappahannock rivers. A few gusts to 20kt have been observed on the Currituck Sound today and will likely persist through the evening, but not expecting these gusts to be frequent enough for a SCA. Seas are ~6ft north/6-7ft S, with 2-4ft waves in the Bay. High pressure builds N of the region through tonight. Meanwhile, the trough of low pressure tracks NNE off the NC/VA coast tonight with the wind gradually becoming N (perhaps NNW in the bay) and decreasing to 10-15kt (locally NE off the MD coast). There is still some disagreement in the model wind forecasts tonight, with the NAM/NAMNest/WRF-NMM showing an increase in N-NNW winds tonight (to 15-18kt) over the bay on the back side of the low. The other models are not showing as pronounced of an increase in winds on the bay tonight. For now, SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been extended until 02z/10pm for the bay/Lower James. The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect until 05z/1am for the mouth of the bay (for lingering 4 ft waves).
Low pressure pushes farther offshore Monday as weak high pressure builds into the region with the wind becoming NNW at around 10kt by late in the day. Seas are expected to subside to 5-6ft N/4-5ft S by late tonight. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the ocean continue through tonight and the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) N of Parramore Island has been extended until 17z/1pm Monday for lingering 4-5ft seas. Weak high pressure moves offshore Monday night and Tuesday. Another cold front potentially settles into the region during the middle of next week with strong low pressure tracking along the boundary later in the week. The strong low is forecast to move offshore on Fri with a significant Cold Air Advection surge in its wake. At least solid SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are expected with the Cold Air Advection surge Fri into Fri night.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Monday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-638. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Monday for ANZ654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.