Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Am...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Today...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Becoming W Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
337am EDT Sunday May 31 2020
High pressure builds into the region through mid week. A warm front lifts north of the area Tuesday night.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 330am EDT Sunday... Dew point bndry now pushing across southern half of fa as high pressure builds in from the Gt Lakes region. This mornings AC deck will be replaced by scattered daytime CU. Overall a mstly sunny/cooler and less humid day on tap. Highs in the low-mid 70s.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Wednesday
As of 330am EDT Sunday... Mstly clr/comfy tonite. Lows upper 40s-mid 50s (mid 40s at LKU). Mstly sunny Monday as the high pushes se across the region. Highs in the low-mid 70s. The high slides off the NC coast Monday nite. Mstly clr to start with some overnite clouds as a trough apprchs from the north. Lows in the 50s.
Low pressure moves east across the nern states Tuesday while the high becomes centered off the Carolina coast. Models differ wrt the movement of a convective complex across Pa. NAM drops in se across the area Tuesday aftrn while the GFS is slower and closer to the coast along a dvlpng warm front that extends east to near the Delmarva. Meanwhile, both the ECMWF/Canadian not impressed with any complex. So for now, added slght chance Probability of Precipitation across the Delmarva Tuesday aftrn and eve. This will likely change with later model runs as is typical with any convective complex in a nw flow. Warmer with highs upper 70s- lwr 80s west of the Ches Bay but remaining in the low-mid 70s over the eastern shore. Lows Tuesday nite in the mid-upper 60s.
The Bermuda ridge dominates Wednesday with the first widespread 90 (+) degree day the year (H85 temps between 18C-20C). Mstly sunny as any convection stays to the north. Highs in the upper 80s-lwr 90s except low-mid 80s at the beaches.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Saturday
As of 330am EDT Sunday... Another convective complex is forecast to slide se in the nw flow Thurs. It will be another hot day before any convection dvlps. Highs near 90 over most of the piedmont with mid to upper 80s along the coast and low to mid 80s along the Eastern Shore.
The ridge remains in place through the extended period (centered to our west) and temps will remain in the mid to upper 80s Friday and Saturday, except along the Eastern Shore where temps will be slightly cooler in the low 80s. Lows throughout the extended are expected to be generally in the upper 60s to around 70F.
Due to the positioning of the ridge, we will be located on the ern side of it and therefore NW flow will dominate with a series of s/w's moving around the ridge producing periodic convection.
As of 330am EDT Sunday... A cold front drops south of the local waters early this morning and winds have already turned to the N as a result. Main Cold Air Advection surge will spread south through 7 am and last until midday, resulting in an increase in sustained wind speeds of 15-20 kt with gusts as high as 30 kt on the Ches Bay and coastal waters south of Cape Charles. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the Ches Bay and lower James River will remain in effect until 1 PM. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the Currituck Sound and coastal waters S of Cape Charles will remain in effect until 4 pm. Still could be a few gusts to 25 kt over the northern Coastal waters this morning, but do not anticipate these to be frequent enough to warrant SCAs. Winds on the upper rivers will reach ~15 kt. Seas briefly build to 3-4 ft N/4-5 ft S by mid-late morning with 3-4 ft waves on the Ches Bay.
Winds drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria this afternoon but another Cold Air Advection surge arrives tonight-Monam as winds turn more to the NNE. Still anticipate that wind speeds/gusts will be just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria on the bay/ocean, with waves seas staying below 4/5 feet respectively. Winds become light during the day on Monday as high pressure becomes centered over the waters. Conditions will remain sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) into Tuesday with winds becoming SW again by Monday night and lasting into midweek.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ633- 656-658.