Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast


TODAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUN

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ630 Forecast Issued: 642 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Snow Showers This Afternoon.
Tonight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Early In The Evening.
Sun...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Mon Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.
Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
602am EST Sat Jan 16 2021

Synopsis
A cold front will push out to sea this morning. An upper level trough tracks across the area this afternoon into this evening. High pressure builds to the south of the region Sunday and Monday.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 410am EST Saturday... As of 400 am, a cold front was pushing just offshore, with showers moving off the coast in the next hour or two. But, the sky cover still ranged from partly cloudy to cloudy over the area, as stratus was filling back in behind the precipitation and front. Also, dense fog was over portions of the Piedmont west of I-95, so have a Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 900 am this morning. Temps ranged through the 30s into the mid 40s.

Otherwise, an upper level trough will swing across the region this afternoon into this evening. The sky will average partly cloudy to cloudy, as the trough moves through. The airmass will be rather dry in the low levels, but will maintain a chance for showers from late this morning into early this evening. There will likely be some graupel or snow flakes mixed in with rain in areas that see pcpn. Probability of Precipitation 20-35%. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 40s.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Monday Night
As of 410am EST Saturday... The sky will become clear tonight, as a drier WSW flow filters into the region. Lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A dry WSW flow will continue for Sunday under a partly to mostly sunny sky. High temps will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Another trough, although weaker, will swing across the area Mon morning into Monday afternoon. This trough will just produce some clouds across the region. Generally partly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Clear or mostly clear Monday night with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
As of 300pm EST Friday... High pressure will build into the area from the southwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Conditions will be dry with seasonal temperatures. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and low in the low 30s.

A shortwave trough is expected to track across the Great Lakes and Northeast late next week. This will bring a front near/into the area. GFS is signaling that a low pressure will form along the front across the Deep South and track towards the east coast. While the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) keeps the rain south of the area. Depending on what side of the front we end up on will determine the temperatures for the end of the weak. Although, no real cold weather is expected through the extended with no threat of winter weather.

Marine
As of 330am EST Saturday... Surface cold front pushing offshore early this morning. Latest Obs showing S-SW winds over the Bay and Rivers, with winds in the process of veering around to the S-SE. Early morning MSAS data showing some modest pressure falls over the northern and central waters, in association with deepening surface low pressure, which is passing offshore this morning along the passing front. Winds continue to veer around to the W-SW through the morning. However, still not expecting much in the way of cold advection and thus, expect winds will remain sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for much of the day before ramping up late this afternoon and tonight. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) flags will be hoisted at noon today for the coastal waters, with S-SE wind wave gradually ramping Seas up to 4-6 ft this afternoon. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will also begin at noon for the Currituck Sound, with the Bay following late this afternoon in association with secondary area of cold advection this afternoon into the overnight period. West winds increase to ~20 kt in the Bay and lower James River and the Currituck Sound. South of Cape Charles, CAMs have continued to show some support for some gusts to low end Gale force, mainly over the southernmost offshore waters. However, given the weak cold air advection and the cold offshore waters, will maintain strong SCA (Small Craft Advisory) over the southern waters at this time, with gusts to ~30kt late this afternoon and this evening.

Meanwhile, a few gusts to 20 kt can't completely be ruled out over the upper rivers, but expect York, Rappahannock, and upper James to stay predominately just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds tonight (10-15kt), so have held off with any headlines at this time.

Waves in the Bay increase to 2-4 ft late tonight/overnight before subsiding to 2-3 ft on Sunday. Seas will slowly build Saturday morning with some potential for 5 ft seas across the northern coastal waters by early afternoon. Seas increase to 4-6 ft Saturday night and will take some time to fall back below 5 ft on Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Another upper level system and its associated weak cold front cross the area late Monday night into Tuesday, with another brief period of SCA winds possible during this time frame over the Bay/Sound.

Equipment
As of 400am EST Saturday... NWS Wakefield (KAKQ) radar has suffered a transmitter malfunction and is offline. The radar is expected to remain offline until Tuesday afternoon (01/19/2021). The Newport/Morehead City radar (KMHX) is also offline due to a scheduled generator upgrade. Users are encouraged to access adjacent radars from Blacksburg (KFCX), Raleigh (KRAX), Sterling (KLWX), and Dover AFB (KDOX) through the outage period.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EST this morning for VAZ060-061- 065>069.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 10am EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7am EST Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 7am EST Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10am EST Sunday for ANZ654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ650-652.