Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 3 Ft Late.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S Late. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
335pm EDT Monday September 23 2019
A weak cold front will push across the area late tonight, with high pressure rebuilding over the area Tuesday through midweek.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
As of 330pm EDT Monday... Latest upper air analysis shows a well-defined shortwave tracking across the upper Great Lakes into the interior northeast. This feature has served to dampen downstream ridging across the Deep South. Meanwhile at the surface, a pre-frontal trough was noted from the western Carolinas up into the northern Mid-Atlantic (E PA/W MD). Weak low pressure just to the east of the aforementioned upper trough continues to slide slowly N-NE over SE QC/northern New England, with the associated weakening surface cold front extending NE- SW from SErn QC into W PA/E OH down into the mid-south. Continued very warm/hot temperatures across the local area, with 19z temperatures into the lower 90s well inland, with temperatures in the 80s along coastal communities from Ocean City to Currituck. Look for late afternoon temperatures to "welcome" the autumnal equinox to top out in the low to mid 90s inland...mid to upper 80s along the coast.
Given current location of the front...have nudged timing even a few hours slower into the late evening/overnight, which meshes well with 12z CAMs. This will result in a partly to mostly cloudy sky across the Piedmont by mid- evening, with increasing clouds late and int the overnight hours over the northern neck and eastern shore. 20-30% Probability of Precipitation continue coincident with the frontal passage late this evening...with low Probability of Precipitation owing to dry antecedent airmass and weak forcing over the local area. Kept PoPs aob 14% for south central VA into interior NE NC (or mainly I-64 and S-SW).
Upper level dynamics stay well to our N as the front crosses the CWA. In addition, quasi-zonal flow aloft and aforementioned dry antecedent conditions have combined to yield dewpoints that are lower relative to our typical summer FROPAs (leading to marginal instability at best). Therefore, have confined any mention of thunder to the VA Northern Neck/MD eastern shore (from 03-06z...11p-2a EDT). Best timing for showers looks to be in that same period from around midnight into predawn hours early Tue. There could be a lingering shower or two near the Atlantic coast of VA through 12z Tue.
Unfortunately, while much of the area could use some appreciable rainfall, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts look to be meager...on the order of a few hundredths of an inch at best. Early morning lows tonight range from the low 60s NW to the upper 60s SE.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Wednesday Night
As of 330pm EDT Monday... The front will drop SSE of the local area by mid-late morning Tuesday. expect quick clearing and briefly breezy NW winds post- frontal. As a result, Tuesday will average out mostly sunny (w/ a bit more cloudiness across the SE during the morning). Not quite as warm, nor as humid, as weak surface high pressure builds east toward the area from the OH Valley. Highs Tuesday in the low to mid 80s.
Clear sky/light winds will provide good radiating conditions Tuesday night, as the high becomes centered just W of the CWA. Cooler with lows in the 53-58F range inland/low 60s near the immediate coast. The area of weak high pressure moves just offshore of the Carolina coast by Wednesday evening. Winds turn back to the S-SE by late Wed. Still mostly sunny/less humid on Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 80s. Slightly warmer Wednesday night (w/ a light south breeze). Lows mainly in the low-mid 60s.
Long Term - Thursday Through Monday
As of 155pm EDT Monday... Strong sub-tropical ridge still looks to persist through the forecast period. This will result in (continued) dry weather and temperatures remaining at or above normal through the latter half of the week into next weekend. With high pressure offshore, return flow resumes on Thu, with temperatures ticking up slightly for the late week period into the weekend.
Highs mainly 85-90F Thu...in the l80s at the coast and m80s inland then from 80-85F at the coast to the m-u80s inland Fri. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 both Sun/Mon. Early morning lows in the l-m60s Wednesday night and m-u60s for the remainder of the period.
As of 345am EDT Monday... Surface high pressure continues to move farther offshore early this morning as low pressure and an associated cold front move E across the Great Lakes. Winds have been elevated over the past 12 hrs in the increasing pressure gradient between these 2 features and generally average around 15kt from the SW. Seas are 3-4 ft N and 2-3 ft S with waves in the Bay 2-3 ft. Not quite enough to warrant any headlines in the Bay and with daytime heating later this afternoon expect winds to remain about where they are now given 90+ air temperatures over water temps in the mid 70s. SCA Headlines remain in effect for coastal waters N of Parramore Island today/tonight due to primarily for seas building to 4-5 ft (though SSW winds will increase to 15-20 kt and a few gusts to 25 kt will be possible as well).
The cold front will move in from the NW later tonight/early Tue morning and we may see winds increase slightly over the lower Bay late this evening from the SW but again this looks too short-lived to issue any headlines at this time. More likely, we may need a short-fused SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headline for the Bay Tuesday morning in the wake of the front as winds shift to the NNW and deeper mixing develops with a drier/cooler airmass moving in from the N. Given that this still looks marginal, and mainly a 3rd period event, did not raise any headlines in the Bay w/ this forecast package. Winds should then decrease to N/NW ~10 kt by Tuesday aftn. Another concern mainly after the winds diminish Tuesday afternoon will be increasing swell from Tropical Cyclone Jerry (well offshore but making its closest approach late Tue/Wed). Wavewatch keeps seas ~4 ft but NWPS depicts seas of 5-6 ft. Generally splitting the difference here yields some 5 ft seas Tuesday night/Wednesday so would anticipate that additional headlines will be needed for the coastal waters during this timeframe. This will also make for a high rip current threat Tue/Wednesday as well. Winds will remain light and variable Wed, as the surface high moves slowly off our coast, then turn to the S Wednesday night and Thu with another front approaching the area once again at the end of the week.
As of 1145am EDT Monday... Not expecting record highs to be set this afternoon but given very warm temperatures, have included the records here for reference:
* Record Highs Today (9/23):
* Richmond: 98 (2005) * Norfolk: 100 (1895) * Salisbury: 98 (1914) * Eliz City: 95 (1980)
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 4am to 1pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory from 10am Tuesday to 10am EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.