Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| Overnight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sun...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 742pm EDT Wednesday September 11 2024 Synopsis High pressure remains in place north of the region through late this week, bringing seasonable temperatures. Meanwhile, Hurricane Francine continues to lifts across the Louisiana coast this evening...lifting slowly across the deep south through Friday as it weakens. The system will send increasing clouds toward the mid-Atlantic region late tonight and Thursday that will linger through late week. A chance for some scattered light rain showers returns to the forecast Friday into the weekend, mainly for areas south of I-64. Near Term - Through Thursday As of 740pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Dry and a few degrees warmer tonight. - Mid to high level clouds increase from south-to-north across the area. - Patchy fog is possible across the region around sunrise. Latest surface analysis shows the broad 1022mb high pressure centered over parts of the northeast and New England. This high pressure will continue to slide off to the northeast this evening. Aloft, quasi-zonal flow prevails over the eastern third of the CONUS with weak upper ridging slowly building along the southeast coast. Hurricane Francine made landfall on the central Louisiana coast this afternoon. Thin mid/high level cloud cover associated with Francine is just nudging into southern portions of the area, with most of the gulf moisture associated with the system still lingering across the Deep South this evening. Tonight, thin mid to high level clouds associated with T.C Francine will continue to nudge northward. Guidance shows the potential for areas of fog prior to sunrise, especially along and east of I-95 as well as over portions of the Eastern Shore. Early morning lows mainly in the mid-upper 50s inland, lower to middle 60s at the coast. Short Term - Thursday Night Through Saturday Night As of 315pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Mainly dry and slightly cooler with increased cloud cover Thu/Fri. -Chances of Probability of Precipitation increase across the SE Friday afternoon and into the weekend By Thursday the surface high Surface high will be offshore of New England tomorrow, and begins to ridge south into the mid- Atlantic region. Tropical Cyclone Francine will lift north across portions of the deep south on Thursday. This, along with emerging Rex Block pattern to the north over the Great Lakes will serve to slow the speed of the system down considerably into the short term period. That high pressure centered to our northwest will keep the area dry on Thursday. However, with the increased high level cloud cover, temperatures do drop off slightly, with highs in the lower 80s. A milder but dry Thursday night with lingering partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows are expected to be in the 60s. By Friday, the remnant low of Francine lingers over the mid-South region. However, high pressure to the northeast will continue to fetch in drier air across the area keeping Probability of Precipitation chances low (15-20%). The best chances of probability of precipitation reside across the south eastern piedmont through NE NC. Highs on Friday will be cooler as an abundance of cloud cover covers the region. Highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.Saturday will be similar as Friday with the best chance of probability of precipitation (again 15-20%) across NE NC and SE piedmont of VA. Highs again in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday As of 315pm EDT Wednesday... Key messages: - Possible unsettled weather into the weekend, with increase in cloud cover. Scattered light precipitation will be possible, though rainfall amounts are likely to be far from impressive. - Rain chances look a bit better for the middle of next week. Latest ensemble agreement between the GFS (Global Forecast System) and Euro keep probability of precipitation low to end the weekend and to start off next week. However, after Monday there is a bit of disagreement. The remnant low of Hurricane Francine continues to weaken to a surface trough over southeast this weekend, with some lingering showers along that coastal trough that could push up into the SE third of the local area on Sunday. Meanwhile, upper ridging over the interior northeast keeps the mid- Atlantic region mainly dry. Looking ahead past Monday ensemble guidance from both the Euro, Canadian, and GFS do agree on the potential of a Low(possibly tropical?) forming off the coast of the Carolinas. The disagreement is on timing with the ensemble guidance. The GFS ensemble has a faster progression than the Euro and Canadian. Will note, both the operational GFS and Euro have this potential low forming. However, with that being said these operational models often change run to run this far out. Trends however, will continued to be monitored. With model ensemble agreement of a potential low, rainfall chances have slightly increased (25-35%) later Monday and Wednesday. As far as temperatures go, readings look to remain seasonable, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Marine As of 315pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine weather expected through tonight. - Winds, waves and seas will increase and build for Thursday through the weekend. - Winds, waves, and seas will peak on Monday. 1023mb high pressure is centered in vicinity of the New England coast this afternoon. and extends SW to the Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind is light and mainly E to NE less than 10kt. Seas are ~2ft, with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The wind becomes ENE ~10kt tonight. Seas remain ~2ft N and build to 2-3ft S, with waves in the lower Bay building to 1-2ft. High pressure strengthens off the New England coast Thursday into Friday, with another high building and strengthening into New England Saturday and Sunday. This will lead to a period of prolonged ENE flow with building seas/waves. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected Thursday into Friday with seas building to 3- 4ft S. A NE wind will increase to 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt for the ocean, lower Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound Saturday and Sunday. Seas build this weekend to 3-5ft N and 4-6ft S, with 3-4ft waves in lower Ches. Bay. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are increasingly likely this weekend. Strong high pressure to the N/NE of the local area will assist in keeping ENE flow. There is uncertainty on a surface low pressure building off the Carolina coast over the weekend and early next week. Depending on the strength and direction of this low pressure, the winds and waves may differ. The 12z GFS indicates the low pressure will remain to the south of the local area aiding in the ENE flow. This will allow waves in the bay to be between 1-3 ft with winds 15 to 20 kt, and seas in the ocean around 5 to 7 ft with winds 15 to 20 kt. Tuesday, the flow pattern continues with similar wind speeds and wave heigheights in both the bay and ocean. The wave heigheights on Wednesday will be between 1 to 2 ft in the bay and 4 to 6 ft in the ocean with wind speeds around 10 kt. A moderate rip current risk is forecast for Thursday and Friday with increasing onshore flow and building nearshore waves. There is a potential for a high rip current risk by this weekend, especially S. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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