Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Morning, Then Showers Likely Late This Morning And Afternoon.|
|Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Early In The Evening.|
|Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
646am EST Fri Nov 22 2019
Rain chances increase during the day today as a weak cold front a moves into the area. Cold air damming will set up across the region on Saturday as rain moves in for the afternoon. Warm front will move north and still in the areas Saturday night before a strong low pressure system pulls the front off the coast by Sunday. High pressure returns late Sunday into Monday.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
As of 630am EST Thursday... Scattered light rain shower are moving across southern VA (from downtown Richmond south) from west to east this morning. These showers will be brief and extremely light. Clouds will continue to increase this morning with and mostly overcast day. Temperatures this morning are much warmer today than yesterday morning, with most areas in the low 50s to near 50. Dewpoints are also coming up this morning due to the southern flow over the region.
A potent northern stream upper shortwave/surface low will be tracking ewd from Ontario to Quebec today. As it does so, the trailing cold front will be approaching the region from the NW, reaching northern portions of the CWA by late aftn-early evening. Deeper moisture (along with a series of weak disturbances) moves in from the W-WSW during the day on Fri. NAM and HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) show a broad areas of light rain moving across central VA to central Delmarva this afternoon main. While only the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) show the potential for scattered showers across SE VA/NE NC along the cold front later this afternoon and into this evening. Given increasing confidence, have raised Probability of Precipitation to ~70% from the NW Piedmont to the VA Northern Neck/Middle Peninsula to the Lower MD Ern Shore for a 3-6 hr period, with likely Probability of Precipitation over the entire RIC Metro. Have Probability of Precipitation of 30-50% across far southern VA and most of Hampton Roads, with only 20-30% Probability of Precipitation for NE NC (mainly from 18z Fri-00z Sat). Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts on Fri look light (mainly 0.10-0.20"). Forecast highs are mainly in the mid-upper 50s over the northern two-thirds of the CWA, with low-mid 60s across southern VA/NE NC. Rain chances diminish and shift S from 21-00z Fri.
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
As of 500am EST Friday... The front crosses most of the region Fri night, before stalling just S of the VA-NC border in response to developing surface low pressure hanging back over the lower MS Valley. This happens at the same time the closed upper low now over the SW CONUS becomes centered over the Plains and continues to slowly move eastward. Expect some drying behind the front Fri night, with a slight chance Probability of Precipitation for light rain across southern VA/NE NC through 03z Fri. Mostly cloudy across NE NC with clear to partly cloudy skies across eastern VA and Delmarva. Lows range from the low-mid 30s across northern half of the area to the low 40s across coastal SE VA/NE NC.
The aforementioned surface low is forecast to move eastward towards the Ohio Valley on Saturday. The stalled boundary will move back N as a warm front and will try to cross our region during the day on Saturday, but will remain south of our area for most of the day on Saturday. Not a whole lot of changes to the forecast, GFS/ECMWF/NAM continue to be slightly slower w/ the arrival of the precipitation during the day on Sat (NAM/NAM Nest are slightly faster). Regardless, most areas will be dry Sat morning, but still mostly cloudy except over the eastern shore and NE zones where some sunshine is expected until midday. Rain will quickly move into the VA Piedmont by later Saturday morning, then overspread the I-95 corridor by 1pm Saturday. The steady rain will then reach Delmarva/Hampton Roads/NE NC by 7pm with much of the area covered by a shield of rain then. Note that this is a slower solution than previous runs of the models. As for temperatures, expect a cold day (especially in areas N of the VA/NC border). Temperatures on during the day on Saturday will remain mostly steady across the area. The NAM is the most aggressive with the CAD, but models are in good agreement that temperatures will remain cold throughout Saturday. Temperatures will slowly rise out of the mid-30s/upper-30s to the low-40s /mid-40s shortly after sunrise ahead of the rain. Once the rain begin, temperatures will likely drop a few degrees back into the upper 30s to near 40 and remain until Saturday evening. Forecast highs are in the low 40s across the NW Piedmont, mid- 40s across the I-95 corridor/Peninsulas/Delmarva, upper 40s across Hampton Roads/inland NE NC, and low 50s across coastal NE NC. Models continue to depict highest chance for widespread moderate rainfall to be Sat night so have ~80 to 90% Probability of Precipitation across the entire area. In addition, models are showing some elevated instability (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) moving across much of our area during the Sat evening- early Sunam timeframe. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or two during this time (best chance across the sern two- thirds of the CWA), but left any mention of thunder out of the forecast for now. The warm front will slowly move N through the first part of Sat night (as the surface low tracks to our N). As a result, expect a non-diurnal temperature trend starting Sat evening. Temperatures are expected to quickly warm after 7pm Saturday across SE VA, NE NC, and eastern Delmarva. Temperatures will climb into the upper 50s for NE NC, mid 50s from VA Beach to Williamsburg, and low 50s for Salisbury and Ocean City. The warm front will likely not make it much farther NW than I-85 and the eastern side of the Richmond metro. Temperatures across the Richmond metro will range from low 40s west to near 50 on the east side of the metro between 10pm-2am. Temperatures then fall during the latter half of Sat night as the cold front crosses the region from NW to SE. Lows Sunam range from the mid 30s NW to the upper 40s/lower 50s across far SE VA/NE NC. Rain chances end in all areas by 12z Sunday as the low quickly moves offshore. Skies eventually become partly- mostly sunny by Sunday afternoon as weak high pressure builds toward the region. Highs mainly in the 50s on Sun.
The high pressure will be centered near the area Sunday night which is will to temperatures dropping to near freezing inland (outside of the urban areas) Monday morning. While, lows will be in the mid-upper 30s in the metros and along the coast. High pressure will remain over the area on Monday with highs in the mid-upper 50s.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
As of 330pm EST Thursday... The beginning of the week starts off dry as high pressure will be in control. On Monday the high will be centered over the FL panhandle and by Tuesday the high will drift NE off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will result in a W/SW flow for Monday and a S/SW flow for Tuesday. Temps on Monday will remain several degrees below normal with low temps ranging from the low 30s NW to upper 30s SE, and high temps in the mid to upper 50s. The southerly flow on Tuesday will bring temps up to seasonal norms with high temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
A cold front associated with a low pressure system that will drift from the great lakes region to northern New England will cross the area on Wednesday into Wednesday night. There won't be much moisture at all out ahead of the front, so just chance probability of precipitation in for Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will be minimal, with most guidance suggesting less than a tenth of an inch. Since the front likely won't cross the area until later in the day, temps on Wednesday will remain warm, with low temps Wednesday morning in the 40s and high temps in the lower 60s. After the frontal passage, high pressure builds in for Thursday resulting in dry and slightly cooler conditions.
As of 250am EST Friday... Latest obs reflect SSW flow 10-15 kt over the waters this morning. ~1020mb Surface high pressure is offshore of the Mid- Atlantic/southeast coast early this morning, with low pressure sliding across southern Ontario/Quebec, with the associated cold front approaching the region from the west.
Winds are gradually increasing this morning, as the pressure gradient tightens between the departing high pressure and approaching low pressure system to the north. SSW winds to ~20-25 kt with gusts to ~30 knots over the ocean zones are still expected later this morning, before steadily ramping down with slackening gradient through this afternoon and tonight. Small Craft Advisories continue over the Bay/Sound and Coastal waters through mid-afternoon. and for coastal waters north of Cape Charles through early evening. Have also added SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for lower James River through 17z, again with thought that gusts diminish through the aftn.
Seas 3-4ft this morning will build to 4 to 5 feet by mid-morning (perhaps up to 6 feet out 20 nm), and waves in the Bay to 2 to 3 feet. Seas may remain elevated to 5 feet into tonight, especially across the north/out 20 nm.
Secondary surge of Cold Air Advection may bring a brief increase in winds this evening, but expect winds to quickly drop off overnight and through Sat. Calmer conditions (regarding the winds), during the day Saturday with a light E to SE flow ahead of the next system.
That system will track east of the Appalachian Mountains and across the Carolinas Saturday evening, then across our area Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Winds become southerly late Saturday as the low tracks across VA and MD. The area of low pressure tracks off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday night- Sunday turning winds to the WNW and increasing wind speeds to 15 to 25 knots by Sunday morning. Another round of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed on Sunday across the Bay and coastal zones. Seas increase again to 4 to 6 feet, and waves in the Bay around 2 to 3 feet. Calmer conditions take hold late Sunday into early next week.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ633- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-638. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654.