Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| Today...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt This Morning, Then Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt Late This Morning And Early Afternoon, Becoming Se Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot This Afternoon. A Chance Of Rain Late. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. Rain Likely In The Evening. |
| Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sun...E Winds 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Rain Likely In The Evening. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 556am EST Fri Dec 26 2025 Synopsis Cooler temperatures today behind the backdoor cold front. Rain chances increase this afternoon and evening as a system moves just to the north of the area. The weekend turns a bit warmer, but will be variably cloudy and unsettled. A strong cold front crosses the area on Monday bringing another round of showers, followed with dry and much colder conditions through midweek. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 245am EST Friday... Key Messages: - Chilly today in wake of a backdoor cold front. Rain chances increase in the afternoon and evening. A low pressure system moves across Illinois and south of the Great Lakes towards just north of the local area today. A strong surface high pressure is centered to the northeast causing CAD wedge to influence the area behind the backdoor cold front that moved through the area yesterday evening. The wedge will keep temperatures below average today, peaking tonight in the lower to mid 40s. During the day, temperatures will struggle to reach out of the upper 30s for most and lower 40s for SE VA/NE NC. As the surface low pressure approaches the area in the afternoon/evening, rain chances will increase. The high-res models continue to show a very dry low/mid layer aloft, which will take some time to saturate and get precipitation to the ground. Because of this, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals remain low, below 0.05" across the Eastern Shore and none for the rest of the area. In addition, the chance of any wintry mix has continued to downtrend, now with the MD Eastern Shore only seeing a slight chance of wintry precip. As temperatures trend upward during the day, the wintry precipitation will go through a few transition phases of a brief rain/snow mix in the afternoon, transitioning to a rain/sleet mix, then plain rain. Because of this very dry layer, temperatures may be able to fall to the wet bulb temperature, which would be below freezing, allowing the wintry mix to linger slightly into the evening. With little Quantitative Precipitation Forecast and only a slight chance of wintry precip, no accumulation of sleet/snow is expected. Then in the evening, a secondary shortwave will move aloft creating a surface low to form offshore and another wave of precipitation for the northern and eastern portions of the area. This looks to be more widespread than the first wave, but will focus on the eastern half of the CWA. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals with this wave are trace up to 0.25", with the Eastern Shore seeing the highest totals. Temperatures at this time will be above freezing, so no wintry precipitation is expected. The rain will have moved offshore by morning. Overnight lows won't cool down much with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night As of 245am EST Friday... Key Messages: - Drier Saturday with the wedge of cool air eroding causing a large range in temperatures across the area. Drier weather will return Saturday as the surface low pressure continues to move further offshore, but the backdoor cold front lingers to the south of the area, and weak high pressure is extended over the area from the northeast. This high pressure will continue to keep the wedge influencing the area's temperatures with the cooler air beginning to erode. High temperatures will be dependent on how far north the backdoor front is able to recede. The current forecast has a wide range of temperatures from the mid 40s on the Eastern Shore to the lower 60s for interior North Carolina. If the front stalls, highs could easily struggle to reach the upper 50s. The 06z/26 HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) shows temperatures similar with the forecast while the 06z/26 NAM run holds onto the cooler airmass longer, which is typical for this model. Lows on Saturday will be in the mid 30s for most and upper 30s for SE VA/NE NC. The next low pressure system will begin to approach the area Sunday, which could lead to a slight chance of showers for the northern counties Sunday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the system, temperatures will warm back up to the lower to mid 50s across the area. Long Term - Monday Through Thursday As of 245am EST Friday... Key Messages: - A strong cold front will cross the area late Monday with the highest coverage of showers early Monday into Monday evening. - Markedly colder conditions Monday night through midweek. The next area of low pressure translates rapidly NE from the mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes with a surface ridge in place. The associated cold front will cross through the area Monday afternoon, increasing PoPs Monday morning through evening. Will have high chance to likely PoPs Monday, though this appears to be a setup where deeper moisture does not cross the Appalachians (so Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts look fairly low at this time). The timing of this front continues to drag, with precipitation likely arriving Monday morning rather than Sunday night. With the delayed timing, temperatures will be allowed to reach well above normal with highs in the upper 60s for most to lower 70s in SE VA/NE NC. Behind the front, a deep upper level trough will encompass the eastern CONUS bringing below average temperatures through the end of the week with highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s most days and lows in the 20s. Dry conditions prevail. Marine As of 245am EST Friday... Key Messages: - SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain in effect for the coastal waters, Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound today due to elevated N-NE winds and seas. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions briefly return tonight. - SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) now appear likely on Saturday due to increasing north winds on the back side of low pressure offshore. - Confidence in a period of gale force gusts is increasing Monday evening into Tuesday morning with W-NW winds behind a strong cold front. N-NE winds have increased to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt (with a few gusts to 30 kt) due to a Cold Air Advection surge early this morning. Seas are 4-6 ft with 2-4 ft waves on the bay (highest S). Winds quickly diminish to 10-15 kt by late morning and veer to the SE by this evening as low pressure tracks across the northern Mid-Atlantic. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain in effect for all zones except the upper rivers. Despite the diminishing winds, seas will remain elevated through the afternoon (especially S of Cape Charles). So while SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) expire at 7am for the bay/Lower James/Currituck Sound, headlines remain in effect until 1- 4pm for the coastal waters. Winds become W-NW at 10-15 kt early Sat AM as the low tracks ESE across the Delmarva Peninsula. Another period of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) now appears highly likely on Saturday as winds become N at ~20 kt during the day (w/ 25-30 kt gusts) due to the low deepening offshore of the VA coast. Local wind probabilities for sustained 18 kt+ winds are near 100% on the bay during the day on Sat with high (70-90%) probs of 25 kt gusts. Seas subside to 3-4 ft tonight before building back to 5-6+ ft on Saturday. Will allow the current SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) to expire before issuing new headlines for Sat. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected Sat night through most of Sunday night as high pressure briefly returns. Very strong (sub 980 mb) low pressure tracks well to our N/NW on Monday/Monday night, dragging a strong cold front through the waters from west to east Monday evening. S-SW winds of 15-25 kt are likely during the day on Monday across all marine zones. Then, winds quickly shift to the WNW behind the front Monday evening. Boundary layer wind fields will be strong both ahead of and behind the front, and mixing over the water will increase substantially as Cold Air Advection ensues Monday evening-Monday night. As such, confidence in a period of 35- 40 kt gusts Monday evening-Monday night behind the front is increasing. In fact, local wind probs of 34+ kt gusts are now 80- 100% over most of the coastal waters for a 6-9 hour period, with 40- 60% probs across the Ches Bay. While gale gust potential decreases by mid-late Tuesday AM, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions due to elevated WNW winds will likely linger through Tuesday night before winds finally diminish to just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds on Wed. With the offshore component to the flow, seas won't build higher than 4-7 ft Monday night-Tue AM. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST this morning for ANZ630>632-638. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for ANZ633- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658. |
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