Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late This Evening And Early Morning.|
|Tue...W Winds 10 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely In The Evening.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Thu...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
950pm EDT Monday Jun 21 2021
A fairly strong early summer cold front crosses the area from Tuesday to Tuesday evening. high pressure builds north of the area Wednesday and Thursday.
Near Term - Through Tuesday
As of 950pm EDT Monday... High pressure remains anchored offshore this evening, and a strong cold front is pushing into the Ohio Valley. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from the Hudson Valley southward through eastern PA/NJ then SW across the VA Piedmont. Showers/tstms along this trough have remained N of the region this evening, with only isolated showers/tstms along and E of the Blue Ridge. Partly cloudy to mostly clear, warm, and humid this evening with temperatures in the low/mid 80s. Only 20% Probability of Precipitation (locally up to 30% in northern Dorchester Co. MD) are forecast from the NW Piedmont across the Northern Neck to the MD Eastern Shore into the early overnight hours, then Probability of Precipitation diminish to less than 15% for the remainder of the nighttime hours. Cloud cover will increase from west to east late tonight. Expect lows tonight in the low 70s NW to the mid/upper 70s SE.
The SW to NE oriented cold front will likely reach central VA around 7-9am Tues before gradually moving SE through the day. Recent CAMs suggest the front will move through faster than originally expected and therefore most of the rain should be through by Tues evening for much of the FA except SE VA/NE NC where it may linger into the early overnight hours. Heavy rain is expected ahead of and along the front Tues morning into Tues afternoon where any thunderstorms will be located. CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg and bulk shear of 40-55 kt will allow for the potential for locally strong to severe wind gusts with the front end of the line. Storm Prediction Center has most of the FA in a marginal risk of severe winds except the far NW. Given the favorable dynamics and unseasonably strong dynamics for June, strong to locally severe winds will be possible as early as late morning. However, the greatest severe chance will be south and east of RIC in the afternoon where instability will be highest.
Although the heaviest rain will occur ahead of an along the front, post frontal stratiform rain will be likely through much of the day for the entire FA. Given the slow moving nature of the front and plentiful moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of 2.0-2.2" SE of RIC), heavy rain will be the primary threat. The HREF shows a 70% chance of 1"/hr rainfall rates for most of the FA. Therefore, expect 0.5-0.75" of rain NW of RIC with 1.0-1.5" of rain SE of RIC through the day (with locally heavier rainfall of >2" possible). Will need to monitor for training storms Tues as localized flash flooding will be possible (most likely in SE VA/NE NC where rainfall from Tropical Storm Claudette was seen). However, current FFG is generally 2-3" in 1 hr except for in urban areas. Therefore, will refrain from issuing a Flash Flood Watch due to low confidence in a large area reaching/exceeding FFG.
Highs Tues will range from the mid 70s NW to the mid 80s SE. Temps will crash Tues behind the cold front into the upper 60s to around 70F with most high temps being realized early in the day before the FROPA.
Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Thursday
As of 350pm EDT Monday... The cold front pushes offshore Tues night with Probability of Precipitation ending from NW to SE early Tues night. Dry Wednesday and most of Thurs except for a few isolated showers/storms in far SE VA/NE NC Thurs afternoon and evening (20-30% PoPs). Lows Tues night in the mid 50s NW and low to mid 60s SE. Highs Wednesday will be cooler in the mid to upper 70s, warming to the low 80s Thurs. Lows Wednesday night in the low 50s NW and low 60s SE.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Monday
As of 400pm EDT Monday... A frontal boundary will linger along or just off the coast Thu night into Fri, then dissipates by late Fri. Surface high pressure will then be centered well off the northern Mid Atlantic coast for late Fri through Mon, resulting in very warm and humid conditions across the region. Slight to sml chance Probability of Precipitation will be around over extrm ern/sern areas for Thu night into Fri morning, then chances for mainly diurnal showers and tstms for Fri aftn through Monday afternoon. due to a very warm/moist airmass in place.
Lows Thu night will range from the upper 50s well inland, to the mid to upper 60s near the coast. Highs on Fri in the lower to mid 80s. Highs will be generally in the mid to upper 80s Sat, Sunday and Mon. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
As of 350pm EDT Monday... SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) have been dropped for the area through tonight with seas only 3-4 ft and winds of 10-15 kt across the area. Waves in the bay/rivers will increase to 1-2 ft this evening as SW winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front (though SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines are not expected).
Attention then turns to a rather strong cold frontal passage (for early summer) that is forecast across the waters on Tue. There will likely be a period with higher winds as the wind directions shift to the NW Tuesday afternoon. and there is enough consensus from the wind probs to issue SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines for the Bay even though the timeframe will be rather short-lived. Did not issue for the rivers as it will be quite marginal though next shift may need to consider at least placing the lower James into an advisory. Also raised SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the Sound on Tue, with SW winds likely to be 15-20kt for a good portion of the day with winds then shifting to the N late. The models show a secondary Cold Air Advection surge likely early Wednesday morning but have trended weaker. As the front stalls off the SE coast Thu and then may lift back to the NW, there is some indication that ENE winds increase back near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds late thu into Fri with the potential for seas building to 5 ft over the southern coastal waters. Then generally sub- SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected late Fri into the weekend.
Will have another moderate risk for rip currents on Tuesday given long period swell. Nearshore waves may only be 2-3 ft given an offshore flow for much of the day. Also, some portions of the upper Bay may get close to minor flooding late tonight (mainly Bishops Head).
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 1pm to 7pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7am to 7pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ633.