Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Until Early Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers Late. |
| Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Showers Likely. Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 348pm EDT Sat July 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the majority of the CWA. Strong to severe storms and very localized Flash Flooding is is possible across portions of SE VA and NE NC tomorrow. Active weather pattern continues Monday through Thursday of next week. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as a hot and humid environment is in place. 2) Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow. 3) Seasonable temperatures continue through much of the work week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with the potential with cooler temperatures by the end of the week. As of 348pm EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as a hot and humid environment is in place. Afternoon weather analysis shows multiple 700mb shortwaves moving across the area which is helping to initiate storms ahead and along a Lee trough which is located along the spine of the Blue Ridge mountains. These showers and thunderstorms are moving into a rich and unstable environment with DCAPE values around 1000- 1300J/kg and MLCAPE values of 2500-3500J/kg. However, shear remains weak with only 25-35kt of bulk shear present with the highest shear concentrated across the MD Eastern Shore. Nevertheless, the atmosphere which is present will allow for multi-cell and broken- line segments to persist across VA and portions of NC potentially produce strong to severe wind gusts and small to severe hail. Will mention, across the MD Eastern Shore where the better shear is overlapping with modest instability a brief tornado cannot be ruled out especially since the environment is sufficient for supercells. With all these ingredients in place a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the majority of the CWA. Latest model guidance continues to have these storms persisting through the afternoon and evening as the ongoing environment remains in place. By this evening the severe threat will wind down as daytime heating is lost and a CAP build back in place. The only way for storms to thrive is if they have matured and are able to maintain themselves through the capping inversion. The overall severe threat should end by late tonight into early Monday morning. As for temperatures, as mentioned earlier a hot and humid environment is in place with temperatures in the low to middle 90s across the area and dew points hovering in the middle to upper 70s. This has allowed for heat indices to between 105-110 along and east of I-95 and 100-105 west of I-95. The Heat Advisory will remain in place through 8pm this evening. For tonight, temperatures will lower into the middle to upper 709s across the area. However, will mention some areas could potentially be in the low 70s if they receive any rain from the thunderstorms this afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Storm chances return this weekend, bringing the potential for strong, damaging winds and locally heavy rain. The upper trough will continue to push south into the area for tomorrow. At the surface, a cold front associated with a low pressure system north of the area will advance south and stall somewhere across our area of the area. Model guidance continues to favor the better hot and humid airmass remaining along and south of I-64 for Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s and dews reaching into the low to middle 70s. Heat Incises are expected to be highest south of I-64 with Heat Index values to be between 100-104 and remaining just remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. In addition, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop associated with the front as multiple 700mb shortwaves will move across the area. As noted earlier a hot and unstable environment will be in place with MLcape values between 2000-2500J/kg. Again shear will remain weak with bulk-shear between 25-35kt just sufficient enough to help maintain storms. The primary mode will be Multi-cell to small broken line segments potentially producing strong to severe wind gusts. Will also note, there is the potential for localized Flash Flooding as storms are expected to train over the same area multiple times. Latest 12z HREF shows the greatest threat for localized Flash Flooding being located across NE NC. KEY MESSAGE 3... Seasonable temperatures continue through much of the work week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with the potential with cooler temperatures by the end of the week. The aforementioned cold front will liner across the area Monday bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could potentially pose the risk of a strong to damaging wind gust and localized Flash Flooding cannot be ruled out especially if storms move over areas that have been saturated from the previous days. Temperatures Tuesday are expected to be around seasonable with highs in the middle to upper 80s. For Tuesday and Wednesday, the severe threat looks to be increasing as a much stronger trough will start to move out of the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic. Tuesday looks to be the weakest day as shear remains weak but multiple shortwaves will move through and could initiate storms along the Lee Trough. Wednesday looks the best for severe weather as the better shear moves into place and the trough takes on a slightly negative tilt. At the surface, a strong cold front will move into place Wednesday helping to initiate thunderstorms. The primary hazard at this time looks to be strong to severe wind gusts. Once this front moves through, slightly cooler temperatures are possible. Marine As of 210pm EDT Saturday... - Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected with south/southwest winds this afternoon into Sunday morning ahead of the next front. - Strong storms are possible this evening and again on Sunday ahead of the front with locally hazardous winds/waves/seas. Afternoon analysis shows low pressure near the Great Lakes with an associated cold front extending to the SW across the Midwestern states. Winds locally are from the SW 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Ches Bay but remain S and a bit lighter (for now) over the ocean. Waves are around 2 ft with seas 2-3 ft. The gradient is forecast to tighten further later this afternoon and especially tonight ahead of the front. SW winds will stay in the 15- 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt range for the Chesapeake Bay/lower James/Currituck Sound and 20-25 kt and gusts up to 30 kt offshore. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines have been adjusted a bit with respect to timing based on the latest guidance. All SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines now come to an end at 11z/7AM EDT Sunday. The middle and northern bay zones may be able to be dropped a bit earlier but will leave that decision to subsequent shifts. Waves build to 2-4 ft in the stronger SW flow this evening and tonight while seas increase to 3-5 ft N and 2-4 ft S. The southern ocean advisories may also fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria as the winds decrease early Sunday as seas are not forecast to reach 5 ft in these areas. The surface cold front crosses the waters on Sunday with little to wind enhancement as flow turns to the N behind the boundary. Showers and storms are possible this evening and into the early overnight hours. Additional storms are possible on Sunday along and ahead of the surface cold front. The storms on Sunday are expected to mainly impact the southern half of the area. Strong winds and locally higher waves/seas can be expected to accompany the stronger convective cells. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD... Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for MDZ021>024. NC... Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA... Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for VAZ064-075>090- 092-097>100-511>525-528>531. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Sunday for ANZ630>634-639- 650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Sunday for ANZ654-656-658. |
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