Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Showers. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W With Gusts Up To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 325pm EDT Monday April 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain chances have slightly decreased for Tuesday and there continues to remain uncertainty for the possible severe threat Wednesday and rain chances this weekend. Marine Updates: All Coastal Flood Statements have ended. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain in place for the mouth of the Bay into Tuesday morning, and the Ocean into early Wed. All other SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines have been discontinued. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Clear,dry, and cool tonight. A few showers are possible in the Piedmont tomorrow, but any rain amounts appear very light. 2) Widespread showers and a few storms are expected Wednesday. Some potentially maybe strong to severe but there continues to remain uncertainity 3) Mainly dry to end the week, with rain chances returning by Saturday, though drought conditions are also likely to persist. Temperatures hover near or just below seasonal averages. As of 325pm EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Clear,dry, and cool tonight. A few showers are possible in the Piedmont tomorrow, but any rain amounts appear very light. Afternoon weather analysis shows an upper level ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic and negatively tilted shortwave trough over the Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a broad high pressure is overhead leading to clear skies and warmer temperatures than yesterday. As of 2pm temperatures are ranging in the middle 60s inland and lower 60s along the coast due to the onshore flow. High pressure will remain overhead tonight allowing winds to calm and strong radiational cooling to occur. Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 30s to low 40s inland and middle to upper 40s closer to the coast. No frost is expected tonight as temperatures are just a few degrees to warm even though the RH tonight will be near 100% For tomorrow, high pressure still remain in the vicinity of the Mid- Atlantic but will slowly move offshore. The high pressure should keep the majority of the CWA (County Warning Area) dry. However, a chance of showers remain in the forecast with the best chance west and along I-95. Since the last forecast update CAMS have backed off on the precipitation chances due to the high pressure continuing to linger in the area. However, most of the CAMS are struggling to capture the ongoing environment especially across the Mississippi River Valley. If the high pressure slides further offshore and there is more convection than previously forecast (Monday into Tuesday) across the Mississippi River Valley than shower chances could increase across the west. Trends in real time and models will continue to be monitored. In terms of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts, majority of the models continue to show meager amounts less than 0.1" across the west. Otherwise, clouds will increase from the west through the day and highs will be between the upper 60s to low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread showers and a few storms are expected Wednesday. Some potentially maybe strong to severe but there continues to remain uncertainity Primarily zonal flow aloft will be over much of the area Wednesday with strong diffluence aloft. At the surface, a low pressure system is expected to track just west of the Appalachian mountains across Ohio and ino the Northeast. As the low tracks north a warm front is forecast to move through bringing a slug of moisture across the area. Most models have dew points in the lower 60s across the area. Through the day showers and possible storms (later in the day) are forecasted. In terms of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts there still remains a level of uncertainty. Overall, the ensembles are on board with over 0.10" inches of rainfall. However, for anything over 0.50" there remains disagreement. The EURO ensemble looks to be the most excited with wide spread probs of40-50% while the Canadian and GFS (Global Forecast System) ensembles show 10-20%. Any of the higher amounts is most likely to be colocated with the stronger convection. Now in regards to the potential for convection, there continues to remain uncertainty with the amount of instability. This is due to the morning/afternoon showers and clouds lingering allowing for any instability to remain minimal. Will note that most short range models do have the clouds and showers breaking up allowing for weak instability building in across the area ahead of the cold front. If this is to happen and given modest shear (20-30kt 0-1km shear) and lapse rates (6-7 C/km) strong to severe storms are possible. If a sever storm is able to occur it could pose the risk of damaging wind, hail, and a possible brief tornado. As of this update and collaboration with neighbors and the Storm Prediction Center the marginal will remain in place across the area. However, if the uncertainties are able to be resolved there is the potential for a later upgrade. KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry to end the week, with rain chances returning by Saturday, though drought conditions are also likely to persist. Temperatures hover near or just below seasonal averages. Zonal flow is expected to persist across the area through the end of the week and into the weekend. High pressure will slide into place Thursday and friday leading to below to near seasonable temperatures and much drier air. By the weekend rain chances increase as there could be a potential system bringing another chance of plentiful rain fall across the area. However, there remains a copious amount of uncertainty. The GFS ensemble is less suppressed with the system and has wide spread probs of 50-70% of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast greater than 0.50". While the CMC and EURO ensembles have the system suppressed and have probs between 30-40% of 0.50" confined to the far SE. In addition to the rain chances, if this system provides beneficial rain fall this weekend it will allow for temperatures to remain much cooler than forecasted for across the area. Trends in the data will continue to be monitored as the weekend approaches. Marine As of 325pm EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory (SCA) headlines remain in effect for the mouth of the Bay/Ocean, but have been discontinued elsewhere. - Nuisance-type tidal flooding is possible Wednesday night for the upper Bay. Surface high pressure has started to settle into the local waters this afternoon, with winds decreasing to ~10 kt or less for most of the region, with somewhat higher winds of 15-20kt confined to the Ocean offshore of far SE VA and NE NC. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been cancelled for all zones minus the Ocean (mainly for seas at or above 5 ft), and for the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay where waves will linger around 4 ft tonight. Seas tonight will be highest well offshore (6-8 ft) and across the nearshore NC waters (5-7 ft). The high becomes centered farther offshore Tuesday, as the next fast moving low pressure system tracks well to our NW across Canada. Winds become E to SE but remain fairly light on Tuesday, with some onshore/Bay/river breeze enhancement late Tuesday aftn/evening. Seas will generally remain ~5 ft Tuesday despite the minimal winds. A stronger frontal boundary approaches from the W on Wednesday, bringing a period with elevated S-SE winds, but for the most part, this looks to stay just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds. Some convective enhancement is possible Wednesday aftn/evening that could bring locally higher wind gusts. The front moves through late Wednesday night/early Thursday, and a surge for NW winds of 20-25 kt is expected, so SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines will likely be needed for most, if not the entire marine area. Coastal Flooding...Predominant ebb currents led to lower than expected water levels over the past 1-2 days in the lower Ches Bay/tidal rivers despite a good surge of onshore/NE flow. No additional statements will be needed. With elevated seas into midweek, and a modest increase in southerly flow Wed, some minor to nuisance tidal flooding will be possible across the upper Bay from Lewisetta to the Bayside of the MD eastern shore with the high tide cycle Wednesday evening/Wednesday night. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. |
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