Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| Tonight...E Winds 5 Kt, Increasing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain After Midnight. |
| Sun...Se Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Rain In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw With Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 656pm EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Hurricane Isaias has been upgraded to a major, category 3 hurricane. A Gale Watch has been issued for the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay as well as the coastal waters for late Saturday night into Sunday. Confidence remains high in widespread rain Saturday night into Sunday. Confidence in a tornado threat late Sunday across southern portions of the area has increased. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain chances increase Saturday night into Sunday as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias move farther inland. 2) A brief warmup is expected early next week with cooler temperatures later in the week. 3) Nuisance to Minor tidal flooding is expected with the high tide cycle Sunday for portions of Hampton Roads, the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay and the lower Maryland eastern shore. As of 245pm EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances increase Saturday night into Sunday as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias move farther inland. Hurricane Isaias has been upgraded to a major (Category 3) hurricane across the northern Gulf. Isaias is expected to make landfall along the far western FL Panhandle near the FL/GA border tonight before weakening as it lifts north through AL Sat. Isaias is expected to weaken to a Tropical Depression Sat night into Sunday as it moves NE across TN towards the KY/OH/WV border. As the extratropical transition occurs, the precipitation shield will expand in coverage across the local area, likely providing a beneficial rain for most areas. Ahead of the rain, clouds ahead of Isaias have already moved over the local area, with mostly cloudy skies expected to continue through Sun. However, rain will likely hold off until late Sat or Sat night given high pressure over the area. High pressure centered over the area today will gradually lift NE through Sun. As it does so, a CAD setup will develop with a warm front initially across the Carolinas Sunday morning which will gradually lift north through the day. Ahead of the front, the airmass will likely be too stable to support thunderstorms or severe weather. Instead, widespread light to moderate rain will spread north late Sat afternoon into Sat night with Probability of Precipitation increasing to 70-100% late Sat night into Sunday morning. However, most of the day Sat will likely be dry. Stratiform rain early Sunday morning gradually becomes more showery by late morning as the warm front begins to lift into southern portions of the area. While it's still early for high confidence in specifics, models show the potential for a lull in the precipitation Sunday afternoon behind the warm front with a second round of showers and perhaps storms developing along a pseudo cold front late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. As such, Sunday may not be a complete washout. Additionally, if there is lull in precipitation Sunday afternoon and destabilization is able to occur, a conditional severe risk could develop late in the day. The 12km NAM and RRFS show the potential for a broken band of supercells developing across the southern Piedmont late Sunday afternoon, spreading east into early Sunday night. If supercells do develop, the main risk would be for a brief tornado. However, strong winds are also possible. For now, the greatest severe potential appears to be with this late round of convection, however, a low-end tornado threat also exists along the warm front as it lifts north across the area given the increased SRH along the front. To account for this potential, Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe weather across the entire FA. However, this may need to be refined as we get closer. For instance, the northern Piedmont may hold on to the CAD longer than models show, which would limit any destabilization potential there. Otherwise, the main limiting factors for the late day severe risk are that surface winds are expected to be less backed (S/SSE versus SE/E) behind the front, destabilization may be hindered by widespread rain, and the timing is favored to be late in the day (likely after sunset for most of the area). Nevertheless, tropical remnants have a well-documented history of producing tornadoes, so the threat will need to be closely monitored. Outside of the severe risk, heavy rain and localized flooding is possible given the tropical moisture. The current forecast has rainfall totals of 1-2" for most of the area. However, the greatest potential for flash flooding is across far SE VA/NE NC where a longer duration in the warm sector is possible. Here, a corridor of 2-3" with localized totals of 3-4"+ are possible. Farther inland, the lingering CAD through most of the event should keep rain rates more limited. Additionally, quite a bit of model guidance (including the EPS) shows a swath of localized minimum rainfall totals across portions of central VA with rainfall totals closer to 1" for the event. As such, while there is a Marginal ERO (excessive rainfall outlook) across far SE VA/NE NC Sat (for the Sat night rain) and a marginal ERO all the way to the I-95 corridor Sun, confidence is highest across SE VA/NE NC (including the Hampton Roads region). Showers taper off from W to E Sunday night with dry conditions returning by Mon. Otherwise, E winds of 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph along the coast Sat increase to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph inland and 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph along the coast late Sat night into early Sun. The strongest winds look to be along and just north of the warm front as it lifts north across the area. Winds become SSE/SE and remain breezy (especially along the coast) Sunday afternoon. Highs this afternoon are expected to be in the mid-upper 70s for most with highs around 80F possible across SE VA/NE NC. Highs drop to the upper 60s to around 70F across the Piedmont and low-mid 70s elsewhere Sat and upper 60s to around 70F across the far NW and upper 70s SE Sun. KEY MESSAGE 2...A brief warmup is expected early next week with cooler temperatures later in the week. Aloft, a ridge centered across the central CONUS gradually builds into the region through the week. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains centered across the Deep South through midweek before a second area of high pressure builds in from the north late in the week. As such, a warmup is expected with highs in the upper 70s for most Monday (low-mid 70s across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore) and lower 80s for most Tuesday (upper 70s across the Eastern Shore). Temps gradually cool late in the week with highs in the 70s Wednesday and mid 60s NE to lower 70s SW Thu. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected from Mon-Thu. However, there is a low chance for a few isolated showers in the middle of the week across mainly the northern portions of the area. KEY MESSAGE 3..Nuisance to Minor tidal flooding is expected with the high tide cycle Sunday for portions of Hampton Roads, the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay and the lower Maryland eastern shore. A rapid rise in water levels is expected with the Sunday high tide cycle, occurring mainly in the morning for the lower Chesapeake Bay, lower James, and during the afternoon farther north across the middle Peninsula/northern Neck and late afternoon into early evening for the lower Maryland eastern shore Bay zones. Given the E-SE wind direction, the highest impacts, potentially approaching moderate flood locally would be the northern Neck along the tidal Potomac. This should be just one tide cycle with the fast moving nature of this system and winds becoming S-SW later Sunday and Sunday night. Marine As of 315pm EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions prevail through the first half of Saturday. - A short period of Gale conditions is possible with Small Craft Advisories likely Saturday night into early next week as the remnants of Isaias track through the TN Valley and towards the local area, with strong high pressure well off the east coast. High pressure remains entrenched across the local waters this afternoon, with light N to E winds prevailing. Hurricane Isaias is a Major Hurricane as of the 2pm CDT update and will slowly move northward towards the FL panhandle tonight. While direct impacts are not anticipated locally, the interaction of the remnants of Isaias with an upper-level system is likely to lead to increased E-SE flow on Saturday, with low-end SCA conditions developing across the lower Bay and southern VA/NE NC waters. The 12z guidance suite is mixed compared to last night's 00Z runs, but the pattern with a strong surface high (>1030 mb) in a favorable location (off the New England coast) supports enough of a chance for 35 kt+ gusts to issue a Gale Watch for the Ocean and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay on Sunday morning, translating north into Sunday afternoon before the winds shift to the S-SE and diminish. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines have been issued for the remaining zones for E-SE winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt. This is still not expected to be a long duration event, with gale force gusts generally only lasting 3-6 hours at any one location. The gradient is forecast to slacken considerably by Sunday evening. Waves in the bay build to 3-5 ft Sunday (but up to 5-7 ft at the mouth of the Bay), before relaxing to 2-3 ft Sunday night/Monday AM. Seas offshore increase to 6-9 ft nearshore and 7-11 ft in the 20-60 nm zones. 5+ ft seas and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines will likely linger well into Monday for the Atlantic coastal waters. There is a chance that a High Surf Advisory may be needed Sunday, especially for the eastern shore, but confidence is not high so will hold off for now. A cold front is forecast to cross the waters late Monday into Tuesday with a stronger front expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Decent cold advection behind this second front could lead to another period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions midweek. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 7pm Saturday to 7pm EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Saturday to 7pm EDT Sunday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Saturday to 4pm EDT Sunday for ANZ633-639. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Saturday to 4am EDT Sunday for ANZ634. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm Saturday to 4pm EDT Sunday for ANZ635>637. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for ANZ650-652-680-682. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm Saturday to 4am EDT Sunday for ANZ654-656. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for ANZ654-656-684-686. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ658. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for ANZ658-688. |
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