Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| Today...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt This Morning. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 641am EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Synopsis High pressure builds in from the northwest overnight, and will settle across the area on Saturday, bringing dry and cool conditions to the region. It remains dry Sunday, but clouds increase as low pressure approaches from the southwest. Low pressure is expected to intensify along the coast, bringing rain chances and elevated winds Monday and Tuesday. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 315am EDT Saturday... - Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for much of the area tonight/early until 9am. - Cool, dry and mostly sunny today. Off to a rather chilly start this morning with temps already in the mid to upper 30s at many inland sites as of the 3AM observations. Closer to the coast, temps are a little milder in the 40s and a couple spots still in the 50s. Although there will be some high cloud cover moving in over the next few hours, temps should still continue to drop into the low 30s in the Piedmont and N of Richmond and into the mid-upper 30s elsewhere. Of course, immediate coastal areas will not be quite as cold. The Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory (unchanged since yesterday) will continue until 9am. The local area will be under zonal flow aloft today while a trough takes shape to the north. Surface high pressure centered to the north continues to ridge south. A cool, but pleasant, day is in store here with highs in the low to mid 60s and much lighter winds than the last several days. Weak shortwave energy aloft will support scattered cloud cover today and into tonight- mostly high level. The clouds should help insulate the area some tonight, so temps should not be quite as cold. Forecasting lows in the upper 30s/around 40 inland and mid to upper 40s closer to the coast. Short Term - Sunday Through Monday As of 315am EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Cool and dry weather continues through Sunday, rain chances increase Monday. A closed off UL low over the southern Great Plans will nudge closer to the east coast on Sunday while another low takes form near Nova Scotia. Staying dry locally while still under the surface high pressure, but cloud cover will increase/thicken further as a shortwave passes between the lows aloft. Similar to Saturday, highs will be in the low to mid 60s. Temps Sunday night will be on the milder side (relatively) thanks to the cloud cover with lows ranging through the 40s and even the low 50s in the far SE. The pattern starts to complicate going into Monday. Based on latest guidance, it looks like the UL low to the west will meld with the deepening trough forming to our N. A wedge will start to take shape over the area as a surface low or coastal trough forms to the south and high pressure to the N continues to ridge south. There are still some differences in the models regarding exact timing and strength of the forming surface low. Regardless of pattern specifics, Monday looks like a dreary day with broken/overcast clouds and maybe some drizzle or light showers S of I-64 (15-20% PoPs). Highs will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. Long Term - Monday Night Through Friday As of 315am EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Below normal temperatures and rain chances prevail through the week, but details remain highly uncertain. The dreary/unsettled weather will likely last for much of the week with the wedge set up getting locked in over the Mid Atlantic. Still seeing some differences in the global models/ensembles with regards to track and timing of coastal low pressure. The GFS (Global Forecast System) clears the initial low by Wednesday morning then brings in a secondary system later in the week, but the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and Canadian show an almost immediate formation of the secondary low before the first can fully clear out. Either solution results in the cloudy, drizzly conditions lasting through the week with possible improvement by Friday night. It is unclear how much rain will come out of these systems. If the low is stronger and stays closer to our coast as the ECMWF would suggest, the SE could see periods of moderate rainfall. This is reflected in the ECMWF ens as well, which puts 1.5-2" of rain in Hampton Roads and NE NC by the end of the week. The GEFS isn't too far behind with 1-1.5" in the same spot, but most of it from the second system instead of gradually through the week. Elsewhere, amounts may be less than an inch. Temps will be rather cool with highs in the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday for most and the low 60s in the far SE. Wed-Fri will be pretty similar, though maybe a couple of degrees warmer. Lows will generally range through the 40s. Marine As of 350am EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - High pressure gradually builds into the region through the weekend with sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected. - Confidence is increasing in strong NE flow developing early next week as strong high pressure remains north of the region with low pressure developing off the Carolina coast. Gale conditions are possible Monday night into Tuesday. - Another coastal low potentially develops later next week. 1028mb high pressure is building in from the NW early this morning. The wind N to NNW 10-15kt with occasional gusts to ~20kt. Seas/waves are primarily 2-3ft. This area of high pressure builds N of the region today through Sunday and strengthens to ~1034mb. The wind will generally be N to NE 5-10kt today through Sunday, and locally NE 10-15kt S of Cape Henry by Sunday. Seas will be 2-3ft, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Strong high pressure will continue to be centered N of the region Sunday night into Monday. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten in vicinity of the NC coast with a NE wind gradually increasing to 10-15kt, and 15-20kt S of Cape Henry by Sunday night. Seas build to 3-4ft S by later Sunday night, with waves in the Ches. Bay building to 2-3ft. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are forecast through Sunday night, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely developing S-N by Monday as a NE wind increases to 15-20kt N to 20-25kt S. Seas build to 4-5ft N to 5-7ft S, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay by later Monday and 4-5ft at the mouth of the Bay. Confidence remains high with respect to a period of strong onshore (NE) flow during the Monday night/Tuesday time frame as 1030+mb high pressure remains anchored over QB with a wave of low pressure tracking NE off the Carolina coast. 00z/25 EPS probs for gusts greater than or equal to 34kt remain quite high (60-90%) Monday night into Tuesday for the coastal waters and Ches. Bay, and even has up to 20-30% probs for sustained 34kt for the VA coastal waters, and 30-40% for the NC coastal waters. Local wind probs for 34kt gusts are similar S of Parramore Is., but sustained probs are lower. Regardless, a period of gale conditions are increasingly probable Monday night into Tuesday. Seas build to 7-10ft, with 3-5ft waves (5- 6ft at the mouth) in the Ches. Bay. Marine conditions remain unsettled mid to late week, but uncertainty increases as the week progresses. A secondary trough approaches from the W and there is a possibility that another coastal low develops, bringing at least continued SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions, along with potentially another period of gale conditions. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...Frost Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for MDZ021>024. NC...Frost Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for NCZ012>014-030. VA...Frost Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for VAZ065-075>079- 081>085-087>090-092-093-096-512-514>522. Freeze Warning until 9am EDT this morning for VAZ060>062-064- 066>069-080-511-513. Marine None. |
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