Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...W Winds 5 Kt, Becoming S Late. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Mon...Se Winds 5 Kt, Increasing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 257pm EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Synopsis High pressure centered over region today gradually shifts offshore Sunday. Seasonably warm and dry conditions continue into early next week, before a strong cold front likely approaches and crosses the area by the middle of next week. This will bring a chance of showers Wednesday and much cooler temperatures by the end of the week. Near Term - Through Sunday Night As of 250pm EDT Friday... Key Message: - Mostly sunny and very pleasant weather today and Sunday. - Patchy fog possible both tonight and Sunday night. A very pleasant early Fall Saturday across the region today. Temperatures have warmed into the mid-upper 70s, except in the lower 70s near the immediate coast. Other than some occasional, widely scattered CU over SE VA and NE NC, skies are sunny with high pressure in control at the surface and aloft. Favorable radiational cooling conditions are again expected tonight, so another round of chilly temperatures should be on tap. Lows in the upper 40s to around 50 F and in the lower 50s closer to the coast. These values are a few to several degrees below the NBM. Similar to last night, there could again be some patchy fog development inland and near the tidal rivers. Confidence is a bit higher tonight with dew points a degree or two higher so will highlight this in the forecast. Very similar weather for Sunday, though max temps should be a degree or two higher compared to today and in the upper 70s to around 80 F. This is as high pressure gradually shifts offshore and the upper ridge strengthens some. Skies range from sunny N to mostly-partly sunny S with a developing SCT CU field across southern VA and NE NC in the afternoon. The position of the high is not quite as favorable for radiational cooling Sunday night, but we should still drop into the lower to mid 50s. Fog will also again be possible Sunday night. Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night As of 250pm EDT Friday... Key Message: - Continued mild and pleasant early next week with increasing clouds later Tuesday. High pressure settles offshore and just N of Bermuda Monday into Tuesday. Aloft, a shortwave will eject from the NW CONUS into the Midwest as the parent longwave trough shifts eastward through the northern Great Lakes region. This evolution will gradually push a cold front toward the region by Tuesday, but the frontal passage should hold off until Wednesday. Otherwise, remaining mild both Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 F, with lower 80s possible across interior NE NC. Overnight lows cool into the upper 50s to lower 60s Monday night and lower 60s Tuesday night. Mostly sunny Monday into early Tuesday, though increasing mid-level moisture ahead of the front Tuesday will likely lead to increased clouds by the afternoon and evening. Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday As of 250pm EDT Friday... Key Message: - The next chance for rain arrives Wednesday as showers develop along and ahead of a cold front. - Cooler and drier weather returns to end the week. The cold front and upper trough approach the area Wednesday. There remains some timing discrepancies among the models regarding the frontal passage, with the ECMWF/EPS suite a bit faster than the GEFS/GFS. Still, the highest Probability of Precipitation (50-60%) are in the afternoon and early evening Wednesday. The timing of the front will influence the high temperatures across the forecast area on Wednesday, with a delineation of cooler (northwest) and warmer (southeast) temperatures possible during the day if the front pushes through only a portion of area. The frontal timing will also dictate if there will be any potential for thunderstorms Wednesday, with some modest instability reflected in the models in the afternoon. Will thus maintain a slight chance for thunder in the forecast. While this front likely breaks the rain-free streak for most areas as it moves through, it will not be a particularly wet passage as the front is expected to move at a good clip through through the forecast area. The model consensus is for a return to dry conditions by Thursday and Friday, but there is some divergence across the ensemble guidance as some sort of low could spin up along a lingering coastal trough. Confidence is very low, but we will continue to monitor any changes to the extended forecast. Marine As of 250pm EDT Friday... Key Messages: - High Rip Risk continues through the weekend. - Seas continue to gradually diminish this evening-tonight. - Benign conditions expected Sunday into early next week, with a good chance of at least solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions from Wednesday night- Thursday evening with NE winds. Surface high pressure remains over the area this afternoon with variable winds around 5 kt. Seas are slightly elevated (3-4 ft N/4-5 ft S) due to swell from distant tropical systems. High pressure lingers near the area through the remainder of the weekend before gradually drifting offshore on Monday. Winds remain light and variable through the weekend, before becoming SE (~5 to 10 knots) Sunday night into Monday. A seasonally strong cold front approaches and crosses the waters late Wednesday into Thursday. While the latest 12z guidance is slightly weaker with winds behind the front, still have high confidence in solid-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions with NE winds from Wednesday night-Thursday evening. A period of low-end gale gusts is possible during this time (especially over the ocean). Will allow the SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the southern waters to run until 6 PM. Seas are still expected to fall below 5 ft by mid to late evening. Seas average 2 to 3 ft Sunday through Tuesday, before building back to 6- 9 ft by Thursday behind the front. Rip Currents The rip current risk remains elevated on Sunday due to continued long period swell before gradually decreasing on Monday and Tuesday. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658. |
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