Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers Late This Evening. |
| Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Se 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Thu...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Fri...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat...S Winds 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 745pm EDT Tuesday Mar 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No Significant changes has been made to the forecast. Below average temperatures are expected through midweek, with a warming trend expected late week into next weekend. Dry conditions are expected to prevail the rest of this week into next weekend. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold temperatures tonight, with a hard freeze likely for most of the area. Below average temperatures continue through Thursday morning. 2) Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next weekend. As of 213pm EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold temperatures tonight, with a hard freeze likely for most of the area. Below average temperatures continue through Thursday morning. Afternoon weather analysis shows a potent upper level trough centered over the Great Lakes region. While at the surface a strong low pressure continues to move off to the NE as high pressure over the deep south continues to move into the area. The pressure gradient across the area remains steady allowing for Westerly winds to continue around 10-15 mph with gusts between 20-25mph. Temperatures as of 2pm are in the low to middle 40s across the area under moistly clear skies. By later this afternoon and into the evening the upper level trough will slide across the region. This will allow for clouds to increase especially across the north. The 12z CAMS continue to show a 700mb wave to move across the north allowing for a brief period of light snow showers/ flurries over the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. With a slight increase in these snow showers decided to add a slight chance of probability of precipitation (15-25%) across these area. A weak cold front is forecast to move across the coast behind the trough. with high pressure building in over the area tonight/early Wednesday AM. Low temps are forecast to fall into low to middle 20s inland and upper 20s to low 30s along the coast. Some areas are likely to see a hard freeze with these cold temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next weekend. The latest 12z ensemble guidance continues to show a strong upper level ridge building over the central United States by late this week and it building to the east by the weekend. Seasonable temperatures are forecast to return Thursday/Thursday night, with warming trends starting Friday and continuing through the weekend. There continues to remain a very weak signal for rain chances through the week given upper level height rises and high pressure at the surface. Therefore, dry weather conditions are forecasted to prevail. The next best chance for precipitation is by the end of the weekend as a cold front is forecast to move through the area. Marine As of 245am EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are in effect tonight-Wednesdayam for the bay and ocean for NNW winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt and 3-6 foot seas. - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected from midday Wednesday through at least part of the weekend. - The next good chance of solid SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) is Sunday night-Monday following a cold frontal passage. Winds have relaxed this afternoon and are W-NW at 10-15 kt. Seas are likely 3-5 ft, though with the lack of buoy obs across the northern waters it is hard to tell for sure. Winds become more NNW-NW this evening/tonight following a secondary surge of CAA. A brief uptick in winds will accompany this surge, and have issued SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the bay from 8 PM-4 AM, and have extended the headlines for the ocean until 10am Wednesday (mainly for seas). Admittedly the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is marginal for the ocean, but NNW winds of 15-20 kt are usually enough to allow seas to increase to 5 ft. Winds gradually diminish during the day on Wed, with speeds of 5-10 kt expected by early afternoon. Benign marine conditions with winds aob 10 kt will continue through the end of the work week as high pressure builds over the waters. Southerly winds increase to ~15 kt this weekend ahead of another seasonably strong cold front. That front is forecast to cross the area Sunday night- Monday, which will shift winds to the north and likely bring a round of solid SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) to the waters. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. |
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