Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ630 Forecast Issued: 945 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Overnight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.
Tue Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot.
Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.
Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.
Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.
Thu Night...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
941pm EDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

Synopsis
High pressure drifts off the New England coast through midweek. A very warm and mainly dry pattern then looks to take hold for much of the week ahead.

Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
As of 940pm EDT Sunday... Key Messages:

- Mild and comfortable tonight. Some increasing clouds possible overnight west of I-95.

Latest analysis reveals 1024+mb high pressure centered off the coast of Southern New England, as developing low pressure lifts across the northern plains into the upper Great Lakes. A warm front extends SSW from this system across the Ohio Valley and into the western Carolinas. Aloft, troughing across the eastern Plains states gives way to ridging building into the region from the Carolinas. Dry and pleasant across the region this evening with temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Mainly clear this evening with some increasing clouds late tonight across the VA piedmont. Otherwise, dry with comfortable humidity levels and early morning low temps in the lower to mid 60s.

Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through Tuesday Night
As of 300pm EDT Sunday... Key Messages:

- Warming trend continues Monday and Tuesday, but with manageable humidity levels.

Center of surface high pressure moves offshore of the New England coast for Monday, but continues to ridge W-SW into the region. Resultant onshore (SSE) flow across the area therefore persists, keeping coastal communities a bit cooler with warmest readings over NW portions of the area. Meanwhile, the main weather story for the first half of the week will be the anomalously strong upper heat ridge that continues to build over the mid-Atlantic region. No major change in thinking for temps. Surface ridge offshore should keep temperatures near or just above climo normals. Model thickness values/MOS guidance remain in good alignment, with expected highs in the mid 80s along the coast to around 90 degrees for inland areas. Early morning low temps fall into the mid to upper 60s.

H5 heigheights rise to ~596 dam Tuesday. Again, the warmest temps are forecast from the Richmond metro north. Afternoon dew points remain in the 60s with relative higher values across the N and NW portions of the area, resulting in heat indices in the mid 90s. The core of the upper ridge will lift north of the area Tuesday evening with low temps again in the mid 60s.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
As of 300pm EDT Sunday... Key Messages:

- Very warm and dry weather likely persists through the work week. However, humidity levels remain in check through much of the week.

- Hottest days look to be Friday through next weekend, with humidity also recovering closer to seasonal levels during that same period.

Main weather story for the latter half of the week will be the slowly building very warm/hot temperatures and dry conditions across the region from late week, culminating in the warmest part of the week next weekend.

The anomalously strong upper heat ridge continues to build, as it drifts north along the eastern seaboard, peaking at around ~600 dam over the northeast Friday morning. This will maintain the atypical temperature pattern Wed-Thu, with slightly warmer highs to the north, as E-SE winds keep coastal areas into the Hampton Roads/N OBX area slightly cooler. High temps each day mainly in the low 90s, with mid to upper 80s along the coast. And, as surface dew points look to remain in the 60s, we don't appear likely to see heat indices in the triple digits through Thursday.

EPS/GEFS guidance does (very) slowly break down the heat ridge for the mid to late week period, as an inverted upper trough pushes ashore along the deep south from the western Atlantic, undercutting the core of the heat ridge aloft to our north. As the heat ridge remains in control, this portends continued very warm/dry conditions through the upcoming work week.

Looking ahead, the hottest part of the week still looks to be Friday into next weekend, as high pressure slides offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast into the western Atlantic. A more typical summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern then allows heat to build Friday with highs into the mid 90s, as dewpoints/PW values (Precipitable Water values) recover back toward climo normal values. EPS/GEFS probservations and thickness schemes from both the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFS (Global Forecast System) favoring more widespread upper 90s and Max Heat Indices creeping into the upper 90s to low 100s on Saturday and in the low 100s on Sunday. Lastly, it is a ways off, but worth noting that LREF/NBM probs are >30-40% of Max T at or above 100 over the I-95 corridor next weekend. Overnight lows stay in the 60s for most of the week but will average in the low to mid 70s next weekend as the PWs increase again. A low chance for thunderstorms may materialize by next weekend, as a weak lee trough sets up Sat/Sun.

Marine
As of 300pm EDT Sunday... Key Messages:

- Summerlike and relatively benign pattern in place across the waters for much of the week.

- Gusty SE winds this afternoon into this evening, especially in the bay.

- Near Small Craft Advisory conditions in the Chesapeake Bay for Monday afternoon and evening.

Winds are gradually turning SE as the high over the NE states shifts offshore. This high will become nearly stationary just north of Bermuda for much of the week. Winds will continue to increase especially in the bay this afternoon into early this evening as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. Am not expecting small craft advisory conditions, but there may be a few gusts to 20 kt late this afternoon into this evening in the bay. Winds decrease tonight, then increase again on Monday afternoon. Guidance shows a slightly tighter pressure gradient Monday afternoon and guidance has come in a tad stronger with winds. May see brief small craft advisory conditions in the bay Monday afternoon/evening as wind probs show about a 50-60 percent prob of 18kt+ winds. Not enough confidence at this time to issue a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) but it will be monitored.

Otherwise, the pattern becomes quite stagnant through the remainder of the week with southerly winds of 5-15 kt with the strongest winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

Seas generally 2 to 3 feet in the ocean and waves 1-2 ft in the bay through Wed. Waves may increase to 3 to 4 feet on Thu and Friday as some SE swell moves toward the area.

Will keep with the moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches on Monday and Tuesday. With waves approaching 3 feet in the southern waters, will introduce a moderate rip current risk for that area as well for Monday. Flow becomes more southerly on Tuesday which will keep the moderate confined to the northern beaches. By mid week, there is a hint of a little SE swell that may push seas to 3-4 ft. If this happens, there will be elevated rip risks through the end of the week.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
None.