Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast


THROUGH 7 AM

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TODAY

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

E
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

MON

SW
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ630 Forecast Issued: 323 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
Through 7 Am...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.
Today...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming E 20 To 25 Kt. Gusts To 35 Kt Late. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Rain In The Afternoon.
Tonight...E Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming S 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight, Then Becoming Sw 25 To 30 Kt Late. Gusts To 40 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. Rain.
Mon...Sw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft.
Mon Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt Late. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft Late.
Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot Late.
Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Snow In The Morning. A Chance Of Rain.
Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
427am EST Sunday Jan 16 2022

Synopsis
A potent storm system will track from the Southeast United States northeast across the local area late today into early Monday morning. High pressure returns for Monday night through midweek.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 420am EST Sunday... Early this morning, 1032mb high pressure was centered over northern New England while low pressure was centered over the Gulf coast states. Increasing high and mid level clouds were spreading NNE into the region well in advance of low pressure to the SSW. Temps ranged from the upper teens to the lower 30s. High pressure will gradually move east and off the New England coast by early this afternoon. while one piece of the low lifts nwrd through the mountains, and a secondary low moves NE through SC. This low will then lift nwrd up through NC and east-central VA from late this afternoon through this evening while intensifying. It then continues NNE through PA and into eastern NY later tonight into Mon aftn.

Initial slug of WAA/Isentropic overrunning moisture ahead of the system will result a quick burst of snow lifting S to N over the area late this morning into this afternoon. quickly turning to rain along the coastal areas from Hampton Roads/NE NC up to the Atlantic coast of MD. However, that change will take a bit longer for the I-95 corridor and more so over to the VA Piedmont. Looking at our experimental in-house snow rates guidance and impressive mid-level QG omega axis pivoting through, it's not at all out of the question that we overcome marginal dynamic profiles locally over the I-95 corridor and pick up a quick 1-2 inches of snow later this morning through mid-afternoon before the warm nose quickly lifts across central VA and forces rapid mid- level warming. This will entail an abrupt changeover to sleet and eventually plain rain over the I-95 zones from mid afternoon into early this evening from SE to NNW, continuing into tonight as mid-level warming works its way well inland. However, with freezing temps at the surface to be overcome across the piedmont, light icing is likely over the western half of the area. The area of greatest concern locally remains from around Farmville south to Boydton. These areas could receive 0.1-0.2" ice accumulation on top of about 1-3" of snow. This enhances the concern for additional tree damage and power outages as well as potential travel disruptions before relatively milder air arrives late this evening.

Snow accumulations are on the order of an inch or two for the I-95 corridor, with localized amounts of up to 3" not at all out of the question for the far NNW portions of the Advy area from Midlothian up to Short Pump to Ladysmith. So, have maintained Winter Weather Advisory for these areas, and southward to Northampton county NC, with Winter Storm Warnings just west for a combination of 2-5" of snow plus light icing on the back side.

Finally, quickly deepening low lifting across the area will bring very strong winds. Have issued a Wind Advisory for coastal sections of the area, with gusts to 45 mph expected. Even inland, gusts of 30-40 mph are likely over the western half of the area this evening before backing off late tonight. Even with a changeover to rain likely over most of if not the entire area by that point, additional power outages are a distinct possibility over the area late this afternoon and evening. The system lifts out of the region late tonight, with top-down drying ensuing. Some lingering light mixed precipitation possible after midnight, but expect dry conditions by sunrise Monday morning.

Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
As of 420am EST Sunday... Surface low pressure will be near NYC by Monday morning and continue to track northeast, away from the area, during the day. The upper-level low will also be pulling northeast Monday. However, a secondary shortwave trough will move across the region late Monday morning into Monday afternoon. This may provide enough lift and moisture for rain/snow showers to develop during the afternoon on Monday. Temperatures will be above freezing at this time, so little to no accumulation of snow is expected during this time period. Temperatures will remain fairly steady on Monday as the colder air filters back into the area on the backside of the surface low that will be north of the area. In addition, clouds will be developing again, limiting any heating during the afternoon. Westerly winds will be elevated on Monday as well. Sustain winds are forecasted to be 15-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph inland, and sustain winds 20-25 mph with gusts 35-45 mph along the coast. Highest winds will be along the immediate shore of the bay and ocean. These winds will lead to wind chills in the mid 20s for Monday afternoon.

High pressure will be centered southwest of the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. Temperature will drop into the 20s. Winds will decrease overnight but may remain high enough to allow for our temperatures to not drop as far. Skies will clear on Tuesday as the high pressure moves over the region before moving offshore Tuesday night. High temperatures on Tuesday will be near 40F.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
As of 420am EST Sunday... There is decent model consensus to begin the medium range period, and this features high pressure centered offshore Wednesday, with a cold front approaching from the NW as a cold upper trough dives into the Great Lakes. Wednesday will likely be the mildest day of the period with high temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 40s NW to the mid 50s SW. The overall model consensus depicts the cold front dropping through the area later Wednesday night into Thursday morning with colder air filtering in from the NW. Probability of Precipitation for rain showers are 30-50% at this time, and there is a potential for a rain/snow mix on the NW fringe as precipitation ends. Forecast highs Thursday range from the upper 30s NW to the upper 40s SE, after morning lows around 30F NW to around 40F SE.

Attention then turns to the late week period. A colder airmass arrives from the NW Friday into Saturday with the potential for a vigorous shortwave and surface low pressure lifting NE in vicinity of the Carolina coast. Confidence is low in this time period despite some deterministic global models showing the potential for snow across the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern Carolinas. It is best to use ensemble guidance this far out, and the EPS has 30-50% probs for 1" of snow Friday-Saturday and 20-30% for 3" (which is somewhat notable at this range), the GEFS has similar values, and the CMC has lower values. It is important to follow the latest forecasts over the next several days and avoid extreme outliers until details come into better focus. Regardless, it will likely be much colder later next week into the weekend with highs in the upper 20s to 30s, and lows in the teens and 20s.

Marine
As of 330am EST Sunday... Gale headlines in place across all the waters as low pressure across the deep south this morning moves ne along the I-95 corridor late this aftrn and eve before lifting ne while deepening late tonite and Mon.

NE winds today become E-SE late this aftrn and eve and rapidly increase to 25-35 knots with gusts of 40-45 knots as the low tracks across the area. Wind probs cont to show a period of very strong gales to potentially a few storm force gusts between 21Z-00Z across the southern zones, spreading N into the remainder of the area between 00Z-06Z.

Winds briefly diminish while shifting to the S, then ramp back up as they turn to W/SW between 06-12Z Mon. This is due to deep mixing and the rapidly deepening surface low north of the local area (on the order of 20mb/6 hr). This results in gale force gusts continuing thru the day Monday and into Monday evening along the coastal waters. Winds diminish Monday night/Tues as high pressure builds into the area.

Seas rapidly build to between 10-15 ft late this aftn/eve (due to the onshore flow), then remain elevated into Mon. High surf advisories remain in effect from later today across the southern waters, spreading north along the Delmarva beaches tonight as near shore waves build to 8 ft or higher due to the strong onshore winds. Nearshore waves subside Monday as the flow turns offshore. Waves in the Bay will also rapidly build, especially across the Lower Bay, where 5-7 ft waves will be possible this eve (and up to 8-9ft at the mouth of the Bay).

Conditions improve by mid week as high pressure builds into the area. However, seas may take a while to drop below 5 ft Tue/Tuesday night.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 355pm EST Saturday... Strong low pressure will approach and is expected to track just inland from the Bay/Ocean waters late Sunday, then rapidly off to the N Sunday night/Mon. As a result, a strong onshore (E-SE) flow will rapidly increase late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, then shift to the W/SW overnight and last into Monday afternoon.

This pattern tends to lead to the most significant tidal flooding across the western shore of the middle/upper Bay in response to E to SE winds to Gale force, then as the winds shift to the SW overnight, areas in MD lower shore along the Bay will see a rapid rise in water levels after midnight/early Monday AM. Have issued a Coastal Flood Watch for these areas including Windmill Pt, Lewisetta, Bishop's Head, Crisfield, Saxis. Elsewhere, do anticipate needing some advisories for the Sun evening high tide for the remainder of the Bay and tidal rivers but confidence in water levels above minor flood thresholds is low so will allow next shift to determine the need for any headlines.

Tidal water levels likely rapidly diminish by later Monday morning as the low pulls away and winds become offshore. In addition to tidal flooding, high surf advisories have been issued along the coast starting late Sunday as seas build to 10 to 15 feet. Rough surf may result in instances of beach erosion and dune overwash.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory from 7pm this evening to 10am EST Monday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory from 7pm this evening to 4am EST Monday for MDZ024-025. NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7am this morning to 6pm EST this evening for NCZ012-013-030. Wind Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 1am EST Monday for NCZ015>017-102. High Surf Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 4am EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Winter Storm Warning from 7am this morning to 5am EST Monday for VAZ048-509. Winter Weather Advisory from 7am this morning to 6pm EST this evening for VAZ089-090-092. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8pm this evening to 1am EST Monday for VAZ089-090-093-096-524. Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon for VAZ099. Wind Advisory from 7pm this evening to 1am EST Monday for VAZ077-078-084>086-523-525. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6pm to 10pm EST this evening for VAZ084-086-523-525. Winter Storm Warning from 7am this morning to 7am EST Monday for VAZ060>062-065>069-510. Wind Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 1am EST Monday for VAZ095-097-098. High Surf Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 4am EST Monday for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory from 7pm this evening to 10am EST Monday for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory from 7pm this evening to 4am EST Monday for VAZ099-100. Winter Weather Advisory from 7am this morning to midnight EST tonight for VAZ075-076-079>083-087-088-512-514-516>522. Winter Weather Advisory from 7am this morning to 5am EST Monday for VAZ064-511-513-515. Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through late tonight for VAZ075-077-078-085.

Marine
Gale Warning until 7pm EST Monday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. Gale Warning until 7am EST Monday for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning until 1pm EST Monday for ANZ630>634.