Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
|Tonight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 1 Foot. Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Late This Evening.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320pm EDT Wednesday April 14 2021
A frontal boundary will settle across the local area from the north through this evening. Weak low pressure will track east along this boundary this evening before moving out into the Virginia Capes Thursday. The low will intensify as it slowly moves northeast to a position off the New England coast Friday. High pressure builds into the area over the weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
As of 235pm EDT Wednesday... A decent weather afternoon across the local area. Veil of AS crossing the FA indicative of little convective potential attm. Also...as expected...dew points remain slow to respond back through the 50s. Area of light SHRAs was passing through far nrn/NE locations right now...w/ only isolated showers to the SW. Other than possible isolated convection that may Probability of Precipitation up...mainly over far srn/SE VA-NE NC late this afternoon/early this evening...the bulk of the rainfall will be along/NNW of weak lo pressure tracking E across srn VA/NC this evening/tonight. There could be isolated T and possible locally heavy rainfall. Lo pressure reaches the VA Capes late tonight. Clouds and SHRAs are expected to linger after midnight. Lows in the l50s N and NW to the u50s SE.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Saturday
As of 235pm EDT Wednesday... Lo pressure continues to move away from the coast Thu w/ a trough approaching/crossing the region from the NW. Clouds and ISOLD-SCT precipitation are expected to linger into the afternoon before clearing begins. Highs from the m60s-around 70F.
Lo pressure will swirl across New England Thu night into Sat. Other than VRB clouds over NE portions...dry/cool NW flow and conditions no worse than partly cloudy are expected. Lows Thu night in the l-m40s...except u40s right along the immediate coast in SE VA- NE NC. Highs Fri ranging through the 60s. Lows Fri night in the l40s inland to mainly in the m-u40s at the coast. A slight increase in cloudiness is expected by Sat afternoon as a weak system approaches from the WSW. Still on the cool side...w/ highs in the 60s.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
As of 145pm EDT Wednesday... Suppressed nearly zonal flow aloft will dominate the pattern through early next week. MJO forecast to steadily progress (moderately) through phase 7 during this time period and that generally signals cooler than normal conditions here in April. One weak system w/ periods of clouds and possible light precipitation tracks across the FA late in the weekend/early Monday then another one possibly brings a CHC of precipitation again Tuesday or Wed. Generally followed the blended guidance through the period. Highs mainly in the 60s- l70s. Lows in the 40s-l50s.
As of 320pm EDT Wednesday... High pressure remains centered off of the Outer banks and will drift further offshore through the afternoon and into the evening. Meanwhile, low pressure over W NC/SW VA will move ENE through the evening, tracking over the local waters late tonight into early Thurs morning. A cold front will also approach the local waters from the NW tonight.
Winds are generally SE 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kts at the mouth of the Bay. Waves are generally 1 to 2 ft (2 to 3 ft at the mouth of the Bay) and seas are 3 to 4 ft in the northern waters and 4 ft in the southern waters. Winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt over the middle and southern Bay as well as the southern coastal waters later this afternoon into this evening. Have started the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) from now until 10pm to account for this. Waves will increase to 3 to 4 ft and seas will increase to 4 ft. The southern coastal waters may reach 5 ft early tonight, but confidence is too low at this time to issue a SCA. In addition a line of strong showers/thunderstorms will potentially impact portions of the Lower Bay/James River and the southern coastal waters later this afternoon/evening bringing the potential for gusty winds in excess of 34 knots.
Low pressure and the cold front slide offshore later tonight into Thursday morning with winds becoming NW 5 to 15 kt. Expect sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds from 10pm tonight through Thursday. Winds increase again (NW 15 to 25 knots) Thursday night into Friday morning behind a secondary cold front. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed for a majority of the local waters for this surge (due to wind over the Bay and 5 ft seas over the coastal waters). Elevated seas may linger for the northern coastal waters into Fri afternoon. Calmer conditions are expected late Friday into the weekend as weak high pressure builds across the region.
Look for rising river levels across the Chowan basin and possibly Appomattox basin over the next few days based on a Quantitative Precipitation Forecast forecast of 1-2 inches over the next 24 hrs and already elevated readings.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for ANZ631- 632-634.