Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SAT

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ630 Forecast Issued: 949 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
Overnight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Decreasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely In The Late Morning And Afternoon.
Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers.
Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.
Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
716pm EST Thu Nov 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure centered along the Carolina coast moves offshore tonight. A cold front enters the region late Friday and lingers through Saturday before a strong low pressure system pulls the front off the coast by Sunday. High pressure returns late Sunday into Monday.

Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
As of 630pm EST Thursday... Only minor tweaks to the near term forecast. Adjusted sky cover up a bit as high clouds continue to move across the area. Unfortunately for those hoping for clearer skies later tonight to catch a glimpse of the meteor showers, viewing conditions will not be optimal across our area, although some of the hi-res guidance is optimistic that there could be some breaks over SE portions of the area. Rest of the forecast remains on track. Dew points will be on the increase overnight as southerly flow brings in moisture ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. Combination of cloud cover and rising dew points should hold overnight temps in the 40s.

.SHORT TERM /6am FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330pm EST Thursday... By Fri, the potent northern stream upper shortwave/surface low will be tracking ewd from Ontario to Quebec. As it does so, the trailing cold front will be approaching the region from the NW, reaching northern portions of the CWA by late aftn-early evening. Deeper moisture (along with a series of weak disturbances) moves in from the W-WSW during the day on Fri. 12z/21 deterministic models (as well as the HREF/EPS/GEFS) continue to show the deepest moisture/lift tracking ewd across the northern two-thirds of the CWA from 15-21z Fri. Models do show the potential for scattered showers across SE VA/NE NC. Given increasing confidence, have raised Probability of Precipitation to ~70% from the NW Piedmont to the VA Northern Neck to the Lower MD Ern Shore for a 3-6 hr period, with likely Probability of Precipitation now over the entire RIC Metro. Have Probability of Precipitation of 30-50% across far southern VA and most of Hampton Roads, with only 20-30% PoPs for NE NC (mainly from 18z Fri-00z Sat). Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts on Fri look light (mainly 0.10-0.20"). Given the rain (and mostly cloudy skies), have lowered highs a bit (especially across the N). Forecast highs are mainly in the mid-upper 50s over the nrn two-thirds of the CWA, with low-mid 60s across southern VA/NE NC. Rain chances diminish and shift S from 21-00z Fri.

The front crosses most of the region Fri night, before stalling just S of the VA-NC border in response to developing surface low pressure hanging back over the lower MS Valley. This happens at the same time the closed upper low now over the SW CONUS becomes centered over the Plains and continues to slowly move eastward. Expect some drying (with very little chance for pcpn) behind the front Fri night, but will keep slight chance Probability of Precipitation for light rain across southern VA/NE NC through 06z Fri. Mostly cloudy although there will likely be some clearing over the far N/NE late. Lows range from the low-mid 30s across N/NE zones to the mid 40s across coastal SE VA/NE NC.

The aforementioned surface low is forecast to move eastward towards the Ohio Valley on Sat. The stalled boundary will move back N as a warm front and will try to cross our region during the day on Saturday, but model consensus continues to show the front not making it much past southern VA (becoming centered from the southern VA Piedmont to the VA Ern Shore by Sat evening). Not a whole lot of changes to the forecast, as the 12z/21 GFS/ECMWF/GEM continue to be slightly slower w/ the arrival of the precipitation during the day on Sat (NAM/NAM Nest are slightly faster). Regardless, most areas will be dry Sat morning, but still mostly cloudy except over the eastern shore and NE zones where some sunshine is expected until midday. Expect a quick overspreading of rain due to deep isentropic lift by early-mid afternoon across the warning two-thirds of the CWA (with at least a chance of rain in all zones after 18z Sat). Rain is expected to overspread all areas by the early evening hours on Sat. Expect a cool/cold day (especially in areas N of the warm front). Forecast highs are in the low 40s across the NW Piedmont, mid-upper 40s across the central third of the CWA (oriented SW-NE), and low-mid 50s across coastal SE VA/NE NC. Latest 12Z/21 EPS/GEFS continue to depict highest chance for widespread moderate rainfall to be Sat night so have ~80 to 90% Probability of Precipitation in all zones during this period as the trailing cold front pushes through as the surface low tracks to our N. In addition, models are showing some elevated instability (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) moving across much of our area during the Sat evening-early Sunam timeframe. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or two during this time (best chance across the sern two- thirds of the CWA), but left any mention of thunder out of the forecast for now. The warm front continues to slowly move N through the first part of Sat night (as the sfc low tracks to our N). As a result, expect a non-diurnal temperature trend starting Sat evening, tending to warm several degrees during the first part of Sat night. Temperatures then fall during the latter half of Sat night as the cold front crosses the region from NW to SE. Lows Sunam range from the upper 30s NW to the upper 40s/lower 50s across far SE VA/NE NC. Rain chances end in all areas (except along the immediate coast) by 12z Sunday as the low quickly moves offshore. Skies eventually become partly-mostly sunny by Sunday afternoon as weak high pressure builds toward the region. Highs mainly in the 50s on Sun.

Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
As of 330pm EST Thursday... The beginning of the week starts off dry as high pressure will be in control. On Monday the high will be centered over the FL panhandle and by Tuesday the high will drift NE off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will result in a W/SW flow for Monday and a S/SW flow for Tuesday. Temps on Monday will remain several degrees below normal with low temps ranging from the low 30s NW to upper 30s SE, and high temps in the mid to upper 50s. The southerly flow on Tuesday will bring temps up to seasonal norms with high temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

A cold front associated with a low pressure system that will drift from the great lakes region to northern New England will cross the area on Wednesday into Wednesday night. There won't be much moisture at all out ahead of the front, so just chance probability of precipitation in for Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will be minimal, with most guidance suggesting less than a tenth of an inch. Since the front likely won't cross the area until later in the day, temps on Wednesday will remain warm, with low temps Wednesday morning in the 40s and high temps in the lower 60s. After the frontal passage, high pressure builds in for Thursday resulting in dry and slightly cooler conditions.

Marine
As of 315pm EST Thursday... This afternoon, high pressure is gradually shifting offshore as the next low pressure system begins to approach from the northwest. Winds are generally light and variable to west or northwest. Winds become southwesterly later this evening and tonight as high pressure moves offshore and south of the region. Winds pick up to Small Craft Advisory levels after midnight as the pressure gradient tightens between the departing high pressure and approaching low pressure system to the north. Expect SW winds of 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots over the Chesapeake Bay and near 20 knots with gusts to as high as 30 knots over the ocean zones. Winds remain elevated into late Friday morning/early afternoon, before a weak front crosses the waters turning winds towards the northwest. As a result, have SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) going into effect later tonight and lasting through the day Friday for all coastal zones minus the rivers (the lower James may also need a SCA, but for the time being have capped sustained winds at 15 knots). Seas will once again increase to 3 to 5 feet during this time period (perhaps up to 6 feet out 20 nm), and waves in the Bay to 2 to 3 feet. Seas may remain elevated to 5 feet into Friday night, especially across the north/out 20 nm.

Winds may briefly pick up again Friday night/Saturday morning as cooler air filters into the region from the NW. N to NW may approach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria across the Bay for a brief period late Friday night/early Saturday morning, before diminishing closer to sunrise Saturday. Calmer conditions (regarding the winds), during the day Saturday with a light E to SE flow ahead of the next system.

A low pressure system will track east of the Appalachian Mountains and across the Carolinas Saturday afternoon-evening, then across our area Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Winds become southerly late Saturday as the low tracks across VA and MD. The area of low pressure tracks off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday night- Sunday turning winds to the WNW and increasing wind speeds to 15 to 25 knots by Sunday morning. Another round of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed for this period across the Bay and coastal zones. Seas increase again to 4 to 6 feet, and waves in the Bay around 2 to 3 feet. Calmer conditions take hold late Sunday into early next week.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 4pm EST Friday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 7am to 4pm EST Friday for ANZ633- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 1pm EST Friday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 7pm EST Friday for ANZ650- 652-654.