Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast


THROUGH 7 AM

NE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

TODAY

E
WINDS
5 KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ630 Forecast Issued: 346 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Through 7 Am...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Today...E Winds 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Areas Of Fog In The Morning. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.
Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt Early In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Ne Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 To 2 Ft Early In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Tue Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 4 Ft After Midnight. Showers Likely.
Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft In The Afternoon. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning.
Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
843pm EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Synopsis
A frontal boundary will be nearly stationary across southeast Virginia this evening, before lifting north as a warm front overnight into Sunday. A cold front will cross the area from the west northwest late Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure will build into the area for Monday and Monday night.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8am SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 800pm EDT Saturday... Latest weather analysis indicates that the frontal boundary has sagged S into SE and central VA this evening, though the significantly cooler airmass is still confined to the eastern shore and far northern portions of the CWA. Low clouds/fog/drizzle to continue overnight on the eastern shore (especially from Wallops Island N into MD). Partly cloudy (mainly high clouds) elsewhere currently, but trends in the obs show that some of the low clouds and fog will be overspreading the northern Neck shortly and may be able to push into northern sections of metro RIC after midnight. Lows overnight/early Sunam will range from the lower to mid 60s S of I-64 to as cool around 50F or the lower 50s across the MD eastern shore.

.SHORT TERM /8am SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 350pm EDT Saturday... Warm front will lift north of the area early Sunday morning, with a deck of low stratus likely to linger over northern sections through mid to late morning before scouring out. Meanwhile, vertically stacked system in the upper midwest will lift across the upper midwest/western Great Lakes. The associated surface cold front will cross the Ohio Valley into the interior northeast through early afternoon, approaching our region from the W-NW Sunday evening.

Decent SW surface winds in advance of the front combined partly to mostly sunny conditions (fewer clouds SE sections) will allow for a warm afternoon. High temperatures 85-90F are likely west of the Ches Bay, while readings over the Lower MD and VA eastern shore will average in the mid 70s to low 80s. Record temps not really threatened for most sites, with record maxes now well into the lower to middle 90s as we cross into late March/early April. However. have added a Climate section below for reference especially as some of the guidance at RIC and ORF is for highs at or above 90F.

Most of the day will remain dry Sunday, with some isolated to widely sctd showers and possibly a tstm expected along prefrontal trough after 20z/4pm Sunday. Broad scale forcing for ascent will be limited, and downslope flow will keep low-level moisture limited as well. However, strong surface based instability and modest increase in bulk shear do at least argue for some conditional potential for isolated to widely scattered late aftn convection. After coordination with neighbors and SPC, will add a chance for thunder over MD counties tomorrow early evening, with a slight chance farther south into VA. Will keep thunder mention out over NC, with better dynamics removed well off to the north and timing occurring after sunset tomorrow night. Storm Prediction Center has added a marginal risk for all but our NC counties for tomorrow.

The front will push off the coast Sunday night, with west winds behind the boundary ushering in drier air and a clearing sky. Lows Sunday night ranging through the 50s to near 60.

Dry weather expected Monday and Monday night. Generally becoming mostly sunny on Monday with highs ranging from the upper 60s far north to the mid to upper 70s west of the Bay. Becoming clear Monday night with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Saturday
As of 350pm EDT Saturday... Clouds gradually increase on Tuesday, with increasing rain chances for Tuesday night through midweek with the next system. A southern stream system will move across the southern/SERN us during the midweek period. Models have come into better agreement with resolving this system over the past few runs. Have therefore continued to focus on model ensembles/national blend for the medium range/long term forecast period for the sake of continuity. This will keep considerable clouds and at least chance POPs in the forecast from later Tuesday through Wed night.

Temperatures Tuesday will be tricky depending on the timing of increasing clouds with next system, but for now highs look to be in the 60s to near 70. Temperatures cool some behind the system with the north flow Wednesday night and Thursday. Drying out Thursday and Friday with seasonable temperatures.

Marine
As of 615pm EDT Saturday... A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect for the northern coastal waters from Chincoteague, VA to the MD/DE border. Latest near shore observations (WAL 1/2 SM @ 22z), cameras, and satellite imagery continue to indicate persistent marine fog. The fog potential will likely continue through at least midnight (likely longer for the far northern coastal waters) as moist air moves over the cooler ocean waters. Expect a very slow S to N improving trend in visibilities late tonight into Sunday morning as the warm front drifts to the north. The northern Ches Bay will also need to be watched for potential fog development later this evening.

Previous discussion: Mostly onshore flow in place across the region this afternoon as a weak boundary lifts northward. A belt of enhanced easterly flow exists across the northern offshore waters and central Ches bay. So far winds/seas have not resulted in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions for the northern offshore zone so will expire the ongoing SCA (Small Craft Advisory) there at 4pm. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft while seas range from 2-3 ft S to 3-4 ft N.

Winds will become southerly later tonight across the southern half of the region as the weak front meanders over the area. Winds will become 5-10 knots and somewhat variable north of the boundary. The front will finally lift north of the waters by late Sunday morning. With cool near shore waters and warm/moist southerly flow could see some marine fog develop tonight. Southwesterly flow strengthens to 10-15 knots on Sunday ahead of the next cold front approaching the region from the west. Could see an isolated thunderstorm or two Sunday afternoon/evening as the front crosses the waters. Westerly flow will follow in the wake of the front for Monday. A front drops southward on Monday night into early Tuesday with a surge of northerly flow. Still appears that winds will stay in the 10-15 knot range so no headlines are planned for this period.

Attention then turns to a potential coastal storm affecting the region late Tuesday afternoon into Thursday. Model guidance has started to converge on a track across the Carolinas and eastward out to sea vs turning NE and hugging the coast. Will show a period of SCA-level NE flow Tuesday evening into Wednesday for all waters. Seas are forecast to build to 5-8 ft N and 6-9 ft S and remain elevated into Thursday.

Climate
While record highs are unlikely to fall on Sunday, they are included below for reference as the current forecast is within a few degrees of these values at KORF/KECG.

* Record Highs Sunday 3/29:

* RIC: 94 (1907) * ORF: 92 (1907) * SBY: 93 (1907) * ECG: 90 (1985)

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ650-652.