Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| Today...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Late Morning, Then Becoming Ne In The Afternoon, Becoming Se Late. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Mon...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt In The Evening, Then Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon, Then Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 718am EDT Sunday Mar 26 2023 Synopsis A cold front will push off the coast early this morning. Dry weather prevails today except over North Carolina with a few showers possible. A few fast moving systems bringing additional chances for rain Monday and again Tuesday night. Dry and cool weather will prevail Wednesday and Thursday. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 350am EDT Sunday... Latest analysis shows strong surface low pressure now occluded over southern Ontario/Quebec. Associated surface cold front is pushing through the western 1/2 of the CWA (County Warning Area) and should be offshore by sunset. Some instability (sfc-based CAPE ~500 J/Kg noted across NE NC with dew pts in the lower 60s), and with the additional lift from the cold front, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed and will track through the region through about 6am. Dry elsewhere, as surface dew pts crash into the 30s and 40s from the W. Generally WNW winds later this morning, with highs in the low to mid 70s inland (temperatures may initially rise into the u60s-l70s at the coast but will lower several degrees during the afternoon as winds become onshore. Mostly sunny central and N w/ a mostly cloudy afternoon S across far southern VA- NC. Weak low pressure tracks through eastern NC Sunday afternoon. Will have Probability of Precipitation 20-30% INVOF over NE NC...mainly along the Albemarle sound and have raised Probability of Precipitation to 30-60% in NC with ~20% Probability of Precipitation into far southern VA. Partly cloudy to mostly clear this evening, then clouds increase overnight from the S as the next wave of moisture approaches. A few showers will be possible by early Monday over the S (becoming likely in NC prior to daybreak)...and lows will range from the m40s N to the m50s S. Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night As of 355am EDT Sunday... A weak system in zonal flow aloft will approach from the SW Mon and is expected to spread moisture farther N into the local area. Highs Monday from the low 60s N to the lower 70s S. Favored the GFS (Global Forecast System) over the outlier NAM for timing of Probability of Precipitation Monday (likely S in the morning, with Probability of Precipitation tapering off from SW to NE during the aftn). Partly cloudy Monday night w/ lows around 40F N to the u40s far SE. Enough of a dry push is expected for Tuesday to be mostly dry with partly sunny skies. Cooler with highs in the mid/upper 50s near the coast to the lower 60s well inland. Shortwave aloft passing through Tuesday night will increase clouds and ramp Probability of Precipitation up to high chc. Partial clearing and drier air twds sunrise with lows in the upper 30s W to lower-mid 40s E. Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday As of 405am EDT Sunday... Dry to begin the medium range as weak high pressure builds in fro Wed, with a secondary cold front dropping through in NW flow aloft late wed night/Thu. The high settles in along the coast thu night, then moves offshore in advance of the next system developing over the Plains Fri. Temperatures look fairly seasonable w/ Wednesday likely the coolest day (highs mid 50s eastern shore to lower 60s interior Ne NC and south central VA). Cool with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Wednesday night, slightly warmer inland for Thu (highs lower-mid 60s while staying in the 50s near the coast). Cool Thu night, then warmer Fri into Sat (highs into the 70s) with a southerly low level flow developing. Slowed down precipitation until later Fri, with chance Probability of Precipitation Fri night/Sat/Sat night (and a chance for thunderstorms Sat aftn/evening in the warm sector). Marine As of 345am EDT Sunday... A cold front continues to push SE over the local waters early this morning with high pressure building in later today. The front is then expected to stall over the Carolinas today through Monday before moving offshore Monday night. Winds this morning were W 10-15 kt. Winds become N 10 kt later this morning behind the front, eventually becoming E 5-10 kt early this afternoon and SE 10-15 kt late this afternoon into early tonight. Winds remain ESE Mon, briefly increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late Monday morning. Some hires CAMs show a brief period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions late Monday morning but it appears too brief to go with a SCA. Instead, if higher winds are realized, will likely handle with an MWS. Winds diminish to 8-15 kt Monday afternoon, becoming NW Monday evening behind the cold front as low pressure moves offshore. The next chance for SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) arrives Monday night through Tues morning as winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts potentially to 25 kt. However, confidence remains low with the NAM/GFS the most aggressive and the EURO/Canadian the least aggressive. Winds diminish Tues afternoon with a potential brief secondary surge late Tues night into Wednesday morning. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the northern coastal waters from Fenwick Island, DE to Parramore Island, VA have been extended until 7am due to lingering 4-5 ft seas. Otherwise, seas subside to 3-4 ft later this morning, eventually subsiding to 2-3 ft this afternoon. Waves of 1-2 ft continue through Mon. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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