Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
|Today...N Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue...E Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
708am EDT Sunday September 19 2021
A weak cold front drops across the region later today. High pressure builds across the area today and tonight, before sliding offshore Monday through midweek. A strong cold front crosses the area Thursday into Thursday night, bringing markedly cooler and drier air to the region for late this week into next weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 355am EDT Sunday... Latest analysis reveals weakening high pressure centered from the VA piedmont up into the interior northeast. A second, stronger area of high pressure was analyzed over Ontario and Quebec into northern New England, and is behind a weak surface cold front currently lingering along/just north of the Mason Dixon line. Aloft, upper level ridging is in place from the lower Mid- Atlantic into the Ohio Valley early this morning.
Early morning obs showing quite a few areas of ground fog/low stratus, most dense to the south of I-64. Expect visibilities will remain diminished in spots, with some locally dense fog formation likely, especially central and SW zones to around/just after sunrise this morning. Any lingering fog eventually erodes by mid- morning. Thereafter, expect another seasonable and moderately humid afternoon across the local area. Surface high to the north will build across the northeast today, sending the weakening front to our north toward the local area, with the front dropping across the area this afternoon into this evening. PWs remain near or just above seasonal norms...in the 1.50 to 1.75" range, amd there will be some marginally unstable instability present. However, no substantial trigger or forcing for ascent will exist. As such, don't see much more than an isolated shower or two, mainly across the Tidewater into NE NC this afternoon. Any Quantitative Precipitation Forecast would be low and quite localized, but should average on the order of a couple of hundredths or less. Will call it partly to mostly sunny (less cloud cover over the north by afternoon) with highs in the low to mid 80s. Showers push SSW into north central/central NC this evening, with a gradually clearing sky expected. Could see a recurrence of late night stratus/fog late tonight, mainly in our SW piedmont into NE NC. Otherwise, mild with lows again in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
As of 350am EDT Sunday... High pressure slides offshore of the northeast/northern Mid- Atlantic coast late Monday into Tuesday, signaling another modest warmup Mon/Tue. Models show a slow increase in moisture Tuesday afternoon as the flow becomes onshore. Minimal instability through the period, as mid/upper ridging lifts over the eastern seaboard, so will not carry any thunder wording. However, did carry low chance Probability of Precipitation for scattered afternoon and evening showers mainly along/west of I-95 corridor. Lows in the 60s. Highs Monday 80-85. Highs Tuesday upper 70s-lwr 80s.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
As of 350am EDT Sunday... Aforementioned upper ridge pushes offshore Tuesday night, out ahead of a potent upper trough dropping out of the northern plains toward the upper midwest on Wednesday. As we've noted over the past couple of days, GFS remains on the fast side of guidance, with the CMC/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) on the slower side, with the 00z/UKMet about middle of the road. The latter blend closes off the trough into an upper low across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. As you'd imagine with a dynamic, deep closing off to our NW, 00z model timing of the frontal passage has slowed a bit. Frontal passage now modeled to be after 00z/Thu on into the day on Thursday.
As far as sensible weather goes, expect some overrunning showers will be possible late Tuesday night and Wednesday as the warm front lifts north across the area. The front then slowly crosses the area Thursday into Thursday night. Still some uncertainty to wade through as we get closer. Again, GFS timing would clear out Thu a bit faster than the remaining guidance. Still hedged toward WPC frontal timing, Which is heavily ECMWF/CMC/UKMet weighted.
Cool canadian high pressure then builds into the area late in the day Thu into Thu night, with clearing from SW to NE Thu night into Friday. Dry, much cooler...and dare we say Fall- like...for Fri/Sat. Highs Fri/Sat in the 70s, lows in the 50s to near 60 se. Typically cooler spots could easily see the upper 40s Fri and Sat nights.
As of 400am EDT Sunday... A high threat of rip currents is expected today for the southern beaches (VA Beach/Currituck). A moderate risk is likely for the northern beaches with waves around 3 ft with winds becoming NE this afternoon.
Weak high pressure was centered over the area and into NC this morning, while stronger high pressure was centered over the northern Great Lakes, pushing south and east. Winds were generally SW to NW around 10 kt or less over the waters, with waves on the the Bay generally around 1-2 ft and ocean seas 3 to 4 ft.
High pressure pushing down from the north later today will result in a more northerly and northeasterly flow later this morning and through the afternoon. Winds will become NE everywhere by this afternoon and remain NE tonight and Monday as high pressure remains in place just to our north. Winds increase to 10 to 15 kt by this afternoon especially from Cape Charles north. Winds gradually become E 10-15 kt Monday night, then SE Tuesday night through Wed. Winds speeds remain around 10 to 15 kt with seas 2-4 ft Sunday through Wed, waves on the Bay 1-2 ft. Conditions will remain sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through Tuesday.
A strong cold front approaches the waters from the W-NW late Wednesday into Wednesday night, before crossing the area by late Thu. Models disagree some with the exact timing of the front, however, the pressure gradient looks to really tighten ahead of the front late Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night resulting in a strong southerly flow which could result in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Wednesday afternoon. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will likely persist Thursday into early Friday as the front pushes through and winds become northwest behind the front. Winds should start to decrease Friday night.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.