Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| Through 7 Pm...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sun...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 635pm EST Sat Nov 15 2025 Synopsis Warmer tonight ahead of an approaching cold front that will bring gusty winds on Sunday. Benign conditions expected on Monday before a quick-moving weather system moves through Tuesday night. bringing rain chances and much cooler temperatures. High pressure builds in mid-week, with another potential system to look out for late in the week. Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning As of 305pm EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Increasing clouds this afternoon and evening with a slight chance for light showers across the far N overnight. Afternoon analysis shows high pressure translating offshore ahead of low pressure over Michigan. Satellite imagery shows increasing clouds from the NW ahead of the surface cold front. Temperatures have warmed into the low and mid 70s for the SW half of the area, slightly cooler NE where clouds have been more persistent. SW winds remain elevated this evening and overnight as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the cold front. Wind and clouds will keep temperatures from falling much with lows mainly in the upper 50s. 12z guidance is still not overly excited about Quantitative Precipitation Forecast tonight across our northern tier of counties in VA and MD Eastern Shore. Rainfall is expected to be on the order of trace to maybe a few hundredths of an inch. Clouds will begin to thin out across the west and southwest toward sunrise. .SHORT TERM /6am SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305pm EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Rapidly falling humidity and gusty winds behind the dry frontal passage Sunday morning will result in dangerous fire weather conditions for much of the area. - Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of VA (except the Eastern Shore) and for portions of NE NC. - Cooler and dry Monday with a quick shot at precipitation Tuesday night. Guidance has come into decent agreement with respect to timing of the front moving across the region Sunday. Hi-res models are bit faster moving the very dry air into the area Sunday morning through the afternoon. We now have dew points plummeting into the low 20s across the NW by late morning and only a few hours later for the remainder of the area. Westerly/downslope winds increase to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph from mid/late morning through late afternoon. Downslope warming will initially offset cold advection so temperatures will still be able to warm into the mid 60s NW to the low 70s SE. These temperatures combine with very low dew points, resulting in RH values dipping to 20-25% for the vast majority of inland areas, around 30% RH expected for the Eastern Shore. All of these factors result in a fairly rare and robust fire weather threat for the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday afternoon. See the Fire Weather section below for further details on the Fire Weather Watch. Winds decrease for inland areas Sunday evening but remain breezy near the coast. Cold advection takes over with lows mainly in the low/mid 30s Sunday night. Not as windy on Monday but still breezy through mid afternoon, especially along the coast. Temperatures range from near 60 degrees SW to around 50 degrees NE during the afternoon. Clouds increase Monday night ahead of the next system with lows in the upper 20s and low 30s. High temps Tuesday range from the low 50s N to around 60 for areas near and S of the VA/NC border. Latest guidance has trended toward a slower arrival of any precipitation on Tuesday with Tuesday evening into the overnight the most likely period for our area. Clouds increase through the day with chances for mainly light precipitation across the northern half of the region with low temps in the 40s. Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday As of 305pm EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Mainly dry and seasonable Wednesday and Thursday. - Potential for another system to impact the area Friday into Saturday. High pressure will work into the local area Wednesday into Thursday. Another cool day on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 50s, then warming into the lower 60s on Thursday. Clouds will increase later Thursday into Friday as the flow become more southerly ahead of an approaching low pressure system and its associated cold front. This may bring us a chance of rain Friday into the weekend as models are in decent agreement already. Marine As of 305pm EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions today. - Increasing W-SW winds develop tonight, followed by strong W-NW winds Sunday into early Monday behind a cold front. Gale Warnings have been issued N of Cape Charles on the ocean and N of Windmill Point on the Bay, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for all other zones. Weak S-SW winds prevail across the waters this afternoon with transient high pressure just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. An approaching strong cold front will lead to increasing winds later this evening into tonight, with Small Craft Advisories going into effect for the Chesapeake Bay this evening and for the rivers, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters early tonight. The cold front will approach the area from the W tonight, crossing the waters Sunday afternoon. SW winds veer to the W-NW later Sunday afternoon and evening behind the front, with the best Cold Air Advection overspreading the waters in the late afternoon through the early overnight period. As for updates with this forecast package, have upgraded the Gale Watches to Warnings for the northern two ocean zones, while also adding the zone from Cape Charles to Parramore Island and the Chesapeake Bay zone from Windmill Pt to Smith Point to the Gale Warning. These areas were added mainly due to some of the newer hi-res model runs showing 25-30 kt sustained winds and ~35 kt gusts as the cool/dry air overspreads the waters. Occasional gusts to 35 kt are possible elsewhere, but think the threat for these areas is best handled with a hi-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) at this time. Gale Warnings are in effect until 12z/8am Monday, though SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will be needed for all of the ocean and bay through the day Monday as residual Cold Air Advection continues on the waters. Another uptick/surge in winds is probable Monday night as the pattern depicts surface high pressure still W of the waters until The day Tuesday. This could allow for additional Cold Air Advection with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) lingering through Monday night. Much lighter winds are then expected Tuesday through most of next week as the high settles in from the W. Seas average 2-3 ft through this evening, building to 3-6 ft (locally 7 ft out 20 nm) late tonight through Sunday/early Monday. The offshore wind direction should prevent seas from building much higher. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will average 1-2 ft today, then 2-5 ft late tonight through Sunday night/Monday. Fire Weather As of 125pm EST Saturday... A dry cold front crosses the region Sunday morning with gusty winds and rapidly falling humidity values through the afternoon. Lack of appreciable rainfall and very dry fuels will combine with gusty winds to create dangerous fire weather conditions across most of the area Sunday morning through late afternoon. After coordination with neighboring offices and local forestry officials, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of our Virginia counties/independent cities except the Eastern Shore. The Fire Weather Watch also includes Northampton, Hertford, Gates and Bertie counties in North Carolina. The Watch may be expanded farther east in subsequent forecasts. Areas not in the Watch will most likely need a Special Weather Statement for Increased Fire Danger but will hold off on issuing an IFD for now pending the need for later adjustments to the Fire Weather Watch. All burning is highly discouraged and extreme care must be exercised with any ignition sources on Sunday. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for NCZ012>014-030. VA...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>098-509>525. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Sunday for ANZ630. Gale Warning from 1pm Sunday to 7am EST Monday for ANZ630- 650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Monday for ANZ631-632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 1am EST Monday for ANZ633-635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 4am EST Monday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 1pm EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 7am EST Monday for ANZ656-658. |
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