Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA Marine Forecast
| Today...S Winds 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Showers Likely. |
| Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 613am EDT Monday May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. Pushed best rain chances slightly farther back in time Wednesday night/early Thu. Increased highs slightly for Wednesday into the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values likely remain close to the air temperature. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area. 2) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. As of 250am EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a summer-like heat and continued dry conditions for the first half of the week. Widespread low-mid 90s are expected inland each day, with lower 90s closer to the immediate coast due to H85 temps maxing out between 18-20 deg C, deep mixing, and continued low-level SSW flow. Temps will be similar each day, perhaps increasing a degree or so each day, culminating with the warmest day of the week on Wednesday. The strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temps. The downside to that point is that limited moisture return and downslope flow aloft will also likely maintain dry weather across the region at least into Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon, upper heigheights begin to fall ahead of a cold front approaching the region from our NW. Showers and storms should develop to our northwest ahead of the boundary by midday Wednesday, focused mainly on the pre-frontal lee trough. Given a gradual slowing trend in recent model guidance, it appears much of the convection most likely stays north and west of the RIC Metro Wednesday evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. A shortwave trough is forecast to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen to SE ridge, while also allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. While there remain model differences, the previously referenced cold front looks to slowly drop south across the area on Thursday, then lingers across the area Thu evening before pushing south of the local area Thu night into Friday. With the front moving south of the area, expect a cooler, cloudy day with mainly stratiform rain/drizzle Thu night/Friday, though it is possible the warm sector could linger a bit later into Thu across extreme SE portions of the area, allowing for few rumbles of thunder. Temps may struggle to get out of the lower 60s on Thursday and Friday (especially N/NE) as cool high pressure wedges down into the region. While the Thursday forecast is a bit higher confidence with the front dropping into the region, the temperature forecast on Friday and especially Saturday remains highly uncertain, and depends on the exact position of the front. 00z LREF continues to feature model spread in 2m temperatures of ~12-15 deg F for Friday across much of the area! While some uncertainty lingers into Saturday, especially inland, it does appear as if the wedge airmass erodes quickly, as the parent high exits to the east and the front lifts back north of the local area into the upcoming weekend. Some additional isolated to scattered showers and a few storms (along with warmer temps) are possible Sat/Sun, but by no means does the holiday weekend look to be a washout. Gradual warming is expected as we head into early next week, as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies early next week. As for precipitation amounts, ensemble (EPS/GEPS/GEFS) probabilities for at least 0.5" of 48-hour total rainfall for the Wednesday night-Fri Night period still hover around or just above 50-70% across the entire CWA. However, it is hard to stay as optimistic as ensemble/NBM guidance, given that 1) a potentially unfavorable FROPA timing for convection (Model timing with the front is even later into Wednesday night/early Thu. Wednesday's convection looks likely to be focused to our NNW, with Thursday's heavier rainfall potentially to be suppressed to our south) and 2) several recent rain events have underperformed with respect to Day 3-5 model/ensemble forecasts. Marine As of 240am EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Mainly Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. - A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. Expansive high pressure remains parked across the western Atlantic and extends across the Southeast. Winds remain out of the SW at generally 10 to 15 kt across the local waters. Seas are 2-3 ft across the coastal waters and 1 ft or less in the Bay and rivers (1- 2 ft at the mouth of the Bay). Through mid-week, high pressure will remain parked across the western Atlantic in a typical summertime Bermuda High configuration. Winds remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late-afternoon nearshore seabreeze. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish through the overnight. These surges will be relatively brief and likely will not require any SCAs. Expect generally benign marine conditions to prevail through at least midweek. The next cold front looks to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are possible and conditions may stay under SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through next weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend. Climate As of 145am Monday... Record High Temps for 5/18 - 5/20 Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 95 (1962) 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 95 (1877) 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 96 (1911) 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 93 (1987) 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/18- 5/20 Record Record Record High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 72 (2015) 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 75 (1995) 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 71 (1953) 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 73 (1995) 72 (2018) 73 (2018) NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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