Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely Early In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Late Evening And Early Morning. |
| Mon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Thu...E Winds 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 Foot. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 417am EDT Sunday April 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) continues for SE portions of the area. The main threat remaining isolated damaging wind gusts. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front brings a high coverage of showers or thunderstorms today. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather across the SE portions of the area, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts. 2) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast. 3) Depending on the amount of rainfall received, there may be potential for heightened fire weather concerns early this week. As of 300am EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front brings a high coverage of showers or thunderstorms today. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather across the SE portions of the area, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts. A low pressure system will lift NE of the Great Lakes today dragging a strong cold front through the area late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across the area today. The timing of the showers and isolated thunderstorms remains similar from previous forecasts, expecting convection to begin in NW portions first late this morning then reaching the SE portions by early afternoon. Good moisture returns to the area ahead of the front (dewpoints in the low to mid 60s) will allow a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE across the eastern half of the area. Additionally, the SE will see higher temperatures as the timing of the front is later with highs in the upper 70 to near 80F. This higher instability/better surface heating could help storms to become strong to severe in the SE portions of the area. Storm Prediction Center maintains the Marginal Risk (level 1/5) with the front in the SE portions of the area where the conditions are more favorable. The main threat with any storm would be isolated damaging winds gusts, as wind profiles look to be largely unidirectional with poor lapse rates. Rainfall totals look to be around 0.25-0.50" on average. High values up to 1.00" is possible in the SE from higher amounts in storms. While totals of ~1" are unlikely, any rain is welcome, as a large majority of the area is under a moderate drought. Additionally, a SW wind will gust to 25-30 mph in advance of the showers/thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast. Behind the cold front today, temperatures will trend closer to average or below average this week. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 60s (lower 60s at the coast) and mid 50s N to mid 60s S on Tuesday, as a secondary front drops south through the area Tuesday. providing a reinforced shot of CAA. Strong high pressure builds to the north of the area by midweek which will result in cooler conditions Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s due to the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesdayam and Wednesday night-Thursdayam for areas where the growing season has started. For reference, the growing season has started 4/1 for all but the far NW counties, which start 4/11. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to have the highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around freezing possible, with even upper 20s possible in the Piedmont, depending on how much boundary layer decoupling that occurs. Temperatures gradually moderate back to near seasonal averages late in the week while dry conditions persist. 3) Depending on the amount of rainfall received, there may be potential for heightened fire weather concerns early this week. With the two cold fronts and high pressure building over the area this week, there is potential for heightened fire weather concerns as dewpoints drop significantly and minimum RH values reach to the mid 20s to mid 30s for portions of the area. However, winds are not expected to be more than 15-20 mph early this week. With the large majority of the area under a moderate drought, there may be some concern for fire weather depending on the amount of rainfall received today. Marine As of 400am EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are in effect for the Bay/rivers, and Ocean N of Cape Charles, and will go into effect later today for the Ocean S of Cape Charles and the Currituck sound. - Strong high pressure building in behind another cold front will likely bring additional SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure is located offshore to the SE and low pressure is well to the N and NW across Ontario and Quebec. S-SW winds average 15-20 kt with gusts to ~25 kt across most of the region early this morning due to a compressed pressure gradient in advance of an approaching cold front. Seas are generally 3-4 ft, but will build to 5-6 ft offshore of the northern waters this afternoon. The more limited fetch will tend to keep them capped at ~4 ft to the south, but with gusts to 25-30 kt, will probably see seas to ~5ft out near 20 NM offshore so have decided to add SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) the southern ocean zones this afternoon even though it will be more marginal. Most of the CAMs depict some sort of line of convection moving through the waters late in the afternoon so locally stronger convective wind gusts will be possible (and will be handled w/ SMWs as needed). The front crosses the waters late afternoon into the evening. Cold Air Advection is lacking through most of the evening, so a 6hr+ timeframe with winds only around 10 kt is still expected before a period with stronger N-NW winds develops late in the evening as we approach midnight and lasts into early Monday morning. For the Ocean, have extended the SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) into early Monday to cover this second surge since seas will stay near 4-5 ft offshore this evening. For the remainder of the area, will only cover the SW winds with headlines and allow subsequent shifts to determine if the sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) period is long enough to allow the headlines to end with new ones for the overnight surge. Weak/transient high pressure brings diminishing winds Monday, but a secondary cold front pushes through late Monday night, brining an uptick in winds as they shift back to the N-NW (this looks to mainly be sub-SCA). However, strong high pressure to nearly 1040 mb lags behind and will settle into the the NE CONUS and northern mid- Atlantic region Tuesday night/early Wed. The additional Cold Air Advection and pressure rises will likely lead to a stronger surge of northerly winds, and with the direction being more from the NE, seas are likely to build more significantly to at least 5-6 ft for the southern ocean zones, bringing SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) back into the forecast for most of the local waters. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 10am this morning to 4pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 10am EDT Monday for ANZ656-658. |
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