Marine Weather Net

Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

HURRICANE
CONDITIONS

TONIGHT

TROPICAL
STORM
CONDITIONS
EXPECTED

THU

TROPICAL
STORM
CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE

THU NIGHT

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ656 Forecast Issued: 530 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

TORNADO WATCH 546 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
Today...Hurricane Conditions. Near Shore, S Sw Winds 45 To 55 Kt With Gusts To Around 75 Kt, Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Occasionally To 11 Ft. Well Offshore, W Sw Winds 70 To 90 Kt With Gusts To Around 115 Kt Becoming W 35 To 45 Kt With Gusts To Around 70 Kt In The Afternoon, Seas 19 To 21 Ft, Occasionally To 27 Ft Subsiding To 16 To 21 Ft, Occasionally To 27 Ft In The Afternoon. Period 10 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Extremely Rough In Exposed Areas. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms.
Tonight...Tropical Storm Conditions Expected With Hurricane Conditions Possible. Near Shore, Sw Winds 35 To 45 Kt Becoming W Sw 25 To 35 Kt After Midnight, Gusts Up To 65 Kt Becoming 60 Kt After Midnight, Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Occasionally To 10 Ft. Well Offshore, W Nw Winds 25 To 35 Kt, Gusts Up To 55 Kt Becoming 45 Kt After Midnight, Seas 13 To 17 Ft, Occasionally To 22 Ft Subsiding To 12 To 14 Ft, Occasionally To 18 Ft After Midnight. Period 10 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Extremely Rough In Exposed Areas. Showers Likely In The Evening. A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Thu...Tropical Storm Conditions Possible With Hurricane Conditions Also Possible. W Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts To Around 40 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft Near Shore And 9 To 12 Ft, Occasionally To 15 Ft Well Offshore. Period 9 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Very Rough In Exposed Areas. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.
Thu Night...W Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To Around 25 Kt Nearshore And W Nw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To Around 30 Kt Offshore. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft Near Shore And 7 To 10 Ft, Occasionally To 13 Ft Well Offshore. Period 8 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Rough In Exposed Areas. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Fri...W Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To Around 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft Near Shore And 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft Well Offshore. Bay And Inland Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.
Fri Night...W Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft Near Shore And 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft Well Offshore. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Slight Chance Of Showers Through The Night.
Sat...W Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft Near Shore And 2 To 3 Ft Well Offshore. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...W Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 0 To 1 Ft Near Shore And 1 To 2 Ft Well Offshore. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Sun...W Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
337am EDT Wednesday September 28 2022

Long Term
(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 334am EDT Wednesday September 28 2022

Hurricane Ian is expected to weaken into a Tropical Storm and eventually a Tropical Depression as it moves northwards out of our area Thursday and Thursday night to begin the long term period. The threat for Tropical Storm force winds will end with this, but winds will stay breezy to gusty still on Friday as most areas should see 20-30mph gusts. A much drier air mass will then take over the area beginning on Friday which is expected to keep us very dry through the weekend. In addition, an elongated upper level ridge at the jet stream level and a mainly zonal flow pattern in the mid levels will mean there is a lack of a synoptically driven lifting mechanism. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are also expected to drop below 1.5 inches and could fall to near just inch early next week.

With this drier pattern setting up, rain shower activity will be extremely limited not only this weekend but into next week as well. Any brief shower activity would likely be caused by mesoscale boundaries, but even then much of that potential will be suppressed by the lower moisture content and lack of synoptic forcing. Therefore, expect predominantly dry conditions through the long term period with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for highs.

Marine
Issued at 334am EDT Wednesday September 28 2022

Dangerous marine conditions will continue across the local waters through Thursday night as Hurricane Ian moves slowly northward in the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will gradually improve on Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

Beaches
Issued at 334am EDT Wednesday September 28 2022

Surf is forecast to build to 7 to 10 feet along portions of the Collier coast through today, and peak in the 3 to 5 foot range along the east coast. Deadly rip currents are forecast for the next few days.

NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ067-068-071>075-168-172>174.

Flood Watch through Thursday morning for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174.

Hurricane Warning for FLZ063-066-069-070.

Storm Surge Warning for FLZ069-075.

Storm Surge Watch for FLZ174.

AM...Hurricane Watch for AMZ610.

Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ657.

Hurricane Warning for GMZ656-676.