Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw This Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tonight...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. |
| Mon...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. |
| Tue...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers Until Early Morning, Then Showers Likely Late. |
| Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely Until Late Afternoon, Then A Chance Of Showers Late. |
| Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely Until Late Afternoon, Then A Chance Of Showers Late. |
| Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 730am EDT Sunday August 23 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 135am EDT Sunday August 23 2026 The deep trough draped across the eastern US with low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will remain the primary synoptic feature of interest in the short term. While the axis of this trough will not reach South Florida, an upper level shortwave at the base of the trough could provide some extra forcing for ascent as it advects across the area Sunday night into Monday. However, another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) looks to advect into the area as well during this same time frame. The thickness of this SAL (Saharan Air Layer) is expected to be much less than the previous one, but it will still impact the weather outlook through Monday. In terms of today's setup, a rinse and repeat situation from yesterday appears to be in store as low level flow remains mostly southerly with perhaps a slight southwesterly component. This will keep the focus of convection towards inland South Florida (at least to start) this afternoon before outflow boundaries interact with the sea breezes and produce some storms closer to the coastal metro areas. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two once again cannot be ruled out in the form of downburst winds that are most likely to occur with a storm formed by converging boundaries or cell mergers. Heading into Sunday night and Monday, the intrusion of the drier SAL (Saharan Air Layer) air mass will result in both mid-level dry air presence and low- level profiles resembling an inverted-V near the surface. This results in steepened low level lapse rates and the potential for a couple of strong to severe storms to develop if an updraft or two can bust through the cap created by the dust layer. With that said, overall convective coverage is expected to be lower than without the dust since the dry air provides some inhibition to convection. The storms that do form though will have chances to become strong to severe. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will still be over 1.5", so some scattered showers and storms are still likely regardless but just not as widespread as days without a SAL (Saharan Air Layer) presence. High temperatures for today and tomorrow will continue to be in the low to mid 90s. Maximum heat index values will primarily be in the 100-105F range, but many areas will experience brief periods where indices could be up to the 105-110F range. Long Term (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 135am EDT Sunday August 23 2026 For the middle to end of this coming week, surface and low level high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will begin to expand back over the region and cause winds to shift back to an easterly or east-southeast direction. This easterly to east- southeast regime will produce a pattern that is common in the summertime across South Florida with convection being driven by the sea breeze circulations and being steered towards the Gulf coast areas. At the same time, the weak SAL (Saharan Air Layer) will dissipate by mid-week and allow for the deeper moisture to be utilized for widespread shower and thunderstorm development. Highest rain chances (60-80%) each day will be across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. There will be a chance for an upper level shortwave to develop and advect across the region late in the week, which could cause convection to become widespread across the entire South Florida forecast area. However, uncertainty remains high in regards to this feature. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. Marine Issued at 135am EDT Sunday August 23 2026 Light to gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters today and into this coming week with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all of the local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Fire Weather Issued at 135am EDT Sunday August 23 2026 Wildfire activity is being monitored across the region with the latest fire developing near Krome ave and the Miami-Dade/Broward county line. Smoke from this fire is likely to mostly disperse northwards but variable winds can result in smoke dispersing multiple ways. The main impact to watch for is lowered visibilities, particularly in the late night hours as nocturnal inversions form and can trap smoke near the surface, resulting in smog. Other than ongoing activity and the drought across the region assisting in fire risk, weather conditions are generally not suitable for increasing fire development as relative humidity values remain 50-60% at minimum and winds remain on the lighter side. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. |
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