Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Tue...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Thu...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Nw 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Fri...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Sat...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 646pm EDT Monday July 13 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 134pm EDT Monday July 13 2026 The further south you go along the Florida peninsula, the drier and dustier it gets. An upper low meandering over the Mid-South will keep a stationary boundary just north of Florida, which will allow for rich Gulf moisture to converge all along the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging will flatten slightly and shift west over the Florida Straits, but surface high pressure will continue to dominate the wind pattern over the majority of SoFlo. This pattern will keep the Saharan air mass stretched across the Caribbean and southern Gulf, leading to another day of hazier and drier conditions. As a result, Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis indicates that there is a pretty good north-to-south moisture gradient across the peninsula, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) up to 2.4 inches near the panhandle and as low as 1.4 inches over the Florida Keys. The Probability of Precipitation for today reflect this moisture gradient, with the highest chances of showers and storms (45% chance) near the Lake Okeechobee region. PoPs decrease further south, with mostly sunny conditions and only isolated showers expected for Dade and mainland Monroe. The recent MFL 12z sounding shows a pretty similar profile to yesterday, with a stout dry layer between 950 and 600 mb. With little to no forcing aloft and the drier air in place, convection should once again be limited for most areas through the afternoon. However, similar to yesterday, CAMs have convection firing up along the Atlantic breeze in more moist central Florida. This activity looks to zipper southward along sea breeze and outflow collisions, with activity spilling into northern Palm Beach and Glades county. Elsewhere, sea breeze collisions over interior South Florida may create a a few isolated storms over the Everglades through the late afternoon. Like yesterday, the Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather. Plenty of instability and steep low level lapse rates would support strong convection through the evening. The mid level dry air may contribute to a few strong to damaging wind gusts, with DCAPE once again in the 900 to 1000 J/kg range. Lastly, with 500 mb temperatures near -9 C, there were also be a small chance of large hail. The strength of updrafts in South Florida will probably be dependent on the activity in Central Florida. The strong outflow boundaries from storms yesterday were able to retain a lot of energy as they pushed southward. As a result, a few strong storms were even able to develop in the in drier and more stable air in Broward. A similar scenario could play out this afternoon, which is why Probability of Precipitation was kept in the 20 to 30% range for Broward and Miami-Dade county. For Tuesday, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will keep Probability of Precipitation on the lower end of the spectrum for most of South Florida, up to 40%. Once again the better moisture will be near the Lake Okeechobee region, with isolated to scattered storms forming along sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions over interior South Florida. Above average temperatures will continue, with widespread Major HeatRisk expected. Heat indices will once again be in the 100 to 108 F range, leading to an increased threat of heat illness for people without proper hydration and cooling. Long Term (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 101am EDT Monday July 13 2026 High pressure begins to strengthen directly across the region by mid- week, and will be propagating westward into the Gulf. This will lead to a lighter flow regime, with very light and variable flow overnight, and onshore flow dominated by sea breezes along each coast. Drier Saharan air remains entrenched across the area through the end of the week, although enough moisture should remain for at least a few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms to develop with the sea breezes across interior areas each afternoon. Rain chances remain below average - around 20-30% - maximized across interior and Southwest Florida for the Wednesday-Friday period. Heading into the weekend SAL (Saharan Air Layer) impacts begin to diminish and rain chances should begin to increase into the 30-40% range, still maximized across interior South Florida as sea breezes will continue to dominate any convective initiation. Little fluctuation in high temperatures through the period with highs in the mid to upper 90s each day. Heat advisory potential will be explored each day. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat. Marine Issued at 101am EDT Monday July 13 2026 Drier conditions expected across local waters through much of this week. Moderate east- southeast flow continues to prevail with wave heigheights remaining 3 feet or less. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. |
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