Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Nearshore, East Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West Southwest In The Afternoon. Offshore, North Winds 5 Knots Becoming West In The Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tonight...Northwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tuesday...North Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming West Northwest In The Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...West Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.|
|Wednesday...North Northeast Winds 5 Knots Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.|
|Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Becoming Southeast Late In The Evening. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.|
|Thursday...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...South Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Near Shore...Except South Southeast 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots Well Offshore. Seas Around 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Chance Of Showers Through The Night. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots Near Shore...Except Southeast 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots Well Offshore. Seas Around 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Chance Of Thunderstorms|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL
737am EDT Monday May 16 2022
(Issued 306am EDT Monday May 16 2022)
..Another Unsettled Day With Strong Storms Possible... Short Term - Today Through Tuesday
A mid-level trough will push across the peninsula of Florida today supporting the continuation of the unsettled pattern seen in the last few days. Accordingly, colder temperatures aloft (500 mb temps in the -11 deg C neighborhood) will help steepen lapse rates and provide yet another day with a hail growth zone that will be capable of supporting strong to locally severe storms. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts, hail up to the size of quarter dollars, torrential rainfall, and excessive lightning remain the primary hazards with the strongest storms. Cannot rule out waterspout or funnel cloud activity, particularly around boundary interactions.
A few rounds of convection are possible today, deviating slightly from the diurnally driven pattern in previous days. A morning round of convection with a potential shortwave passage is first up with an afternoon/evening round ahead of the main mid-level trough passage later on. Eventually convection will diminish Monday night into Tuesday morning in the wake of the trough. Drier air begins to enter the region from the west allowing for a drop in shower and thunderstorm chances. The loss of the more favorable upper and mid level supporting features will also help trim back the strong/severe storm chances but not completely eliminate them. The sea breeze boundaries will likely be the focus for convection on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Long Term - Tuesday Night through Sunday
High pressure attempts to build in aloft over much of the southern United States which will help push the influence of the trough over into the Atlantic. This pattern will persist through much of the week before the next low pressure system emerges late week with a large scale trough that will push eastward across the northern tier of the country late in the week into the weekend. The high pressure will remain over our region as it settles into the Atlantic to close out the period.
Coming down to the surface, high pressure will remain the main influence over the area though with the high centered over the Atlantic the region will remain in a southeasterly to southerly flow pattern. Moisture will return from the Atlantic by mid to late week with diurnal sea breeze circulations offering a focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Temperatures will trend warmer as the forecast period continues with heat index values reaching into the triple digits at times previewing the approach of summer.
The surface marine forecast is generally benign outside of showers and thunderstorms which could produce gusty winds and locally higher seas. The strongest storms today could be capable of producing strong wind gusts, waterspouts, and hail. Some easterly wind surges in the evening and overnight hours could produce gusts in excess of 15 knots.
BEACHES... Rip current probabilities will diminish along the Atlantic beaches this week as the onshore flow eases. Tides will continue to run above normal through middle of this week due to the full moon phase which will allow the threat of minor coastal flooding to persist, particularly around high tide along the Atlantic coast.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for FLZ168.