Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W This Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tonight...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Tue...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Late Morning And Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early In The Evening. |
| Wed...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Tstms Until Late Afternoon, Then Tstms Likely Late. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: E 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely Early In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Late Evening And Overnight. |
| Thu...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Until Late Afternoon, Then Showers And Tstms Late. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Showers And Tstms Early In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Late Evening And Early Morning. |
| Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Showers Likely. Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 721am EDT Monday August 3 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 220am EDT Monday August 3 2026 Mid level troughing will continue to slide across the Eastern Seaboard today and it will eventually close off into a mid level low later this afternoon into tonight across Georgia and into the western Carolinas. This mid level low will remain nearly stationary, or perhaps drift a little bit to the northwest throughout Tuesday and will be basically blocked from pushing eastward during this time frame due to strong mid level ridging centered over the western Atlantic. One detail of note with the latest global and ensemble guidance suite is that the development of this closed low has trended slightly further south for this afternoon into Tuesday. This may limit the southwestward extent of the mid level ridging over the western Atlantic during this time frame, however, the ridge will try to nudge closer to the region as Tuesday progresses. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary remains stalled out well to the north over the Southeast today and this frontal boundary will gradually begin to wash out tonight into Tuesday. Further to the south, the western periphery of an area of high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will start to extend over South Florida heading into tonight and Tuesday. While winds will generally remain rather light and sea breeze driven today, the overall steering flow will remain light out of the south southwest. This will allow for deep tropical moisture continue to advect into the region which will help to keep the PWATs (Precipitable Waters) on the higher end as they will range between 2.1 and 2.3 inches across most areas today. This will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop once again this afternoon as the sea breezes push inland. With a light south to southwesterly steering flow remaining in place today, this will keep the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms over the interior as well as the east coast metro areas where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide. With high PWAT (Precipitable Water) values remaining in place, this will allow for the stronger storms to have rather enhanced rainfall rates. With slow storm motion also anticipated for today, these two factors could lead to the potential for localized flooding to occur especially across the east coast metro areas during this time frame. Heading into Tuesday, the pattern will slowly start to transition as surface high pressure starts to build back into the region and the steering flow slowly starts to become more south southeasterly as the day progresses. The timing of this is highly dependent on if the southwestward extend of mid level ridging in the western Atlantic is able to sneak into South Florida later in the day. While the flow will still remain light and PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will remain on the higher end (2.1 to 2.3 inches), convective initiation will remain sea breeze driven. While the steering flow will be in flux and very light throughout the day, shower and thunderstorm development may still remain close to the east coast metro areas and will be dependent on how far inland the east coast sea breeze actually makes it. Storms will continue to be slow moving and will have the potential to produce high rainfall rates with the stronger storms. The will keep the localized flooding potential in place across the east coast metro areas during this time frame. High temperatures for today and Tuesday will rise into the lower 90s across most areas. Peak heat index values will generally range between 103 and 108 across most areas each day, however, they will most likely not remain at these peak values for an extended period of time as convective development will start to take place early in the afternoon hours. Long Term (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 220am EDT Monday August 3 2026 Heading into Wednesday, the mid level closed low begins to open up and slides further north away from the region moving into Wednesday night. At the same time, the strong mid level ridge in the western Atlantic will push closer to the Southeast Coast and South Florida will remain on the southwestern periphery of this ridge. At the surface, high pressure will continue to push further over the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf during this time frame. This will allow for easterly winds to become established on Wednesday gradually increasing as the day progresses. With plenty of moisture still remaining in place, convective initiation will remain sea breeze driven. However, the highest focus of showers and storms will shift to the interior and Southwest Florida due to the easterly wind flow setting up. Chances for strong thunderstorm development will be rather limited, however, it cannot be completely ruled out especially where mesoscale boundary collisions take place, High temperatures on Wednesday will generally remain in the lower 90s and peak heat index values will range between 103 and 108 degrees. Heading into Thursday and Friday, the latest global and ensemble suite continue to show a TUTT feature passing just to the north of the Bahamas on Thursday and then approaching the Florida east coast heading into Friday. The latest trends in the global and ensemble guidance has started to come into slightly better agreement with keeping most of the energy associated with this feature off to the north of the region over Central and Northern Florida. Uncertainty still remains high though as any deviation further to the south would result in higher rainfall chances for South Florida especially heading into Friday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses as this will play a role in shower and thunderstorm chances towards the end of the week. In any event, easterly wind flow does remain in place and strengthens during this time frame as the TUTT moves closer to the region on Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will rise into the lower 90s across most areas with peak heat index values ranging between 103 and 108. During the upcoming weekend, mid level ridging will try to push back in over the region as surface high pressure in the western Atlantic remains in place. This will allow for shower and thunderstorm activity to be sea breeze driven, with the highest chances of showers and storms remaining over the interior and west coast due to light to moderate east to southeasterly winds prevailing. High temperatures look to remain slightly above climatological normals during this time frame as mid level ridging becomes established over the region. Marine Issued at 220am EDT Monday August 3 2026 Gentle to moderate south to southwesterly winds will remain in place across most of the local waters through tonight. These winds will gradually shift and become more southeasterly across the Atlantic waters as Tuesday progresses. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each day across most of the local waters through the middle of the week. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. |
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