Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...N Winds 5 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Nw 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sun...W Winds 5 Kt, Increasing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 5 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. |
| Mon...W Winds 5 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se Late. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Nw 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tue Through Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Nw 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 706pm EDT Sat September 14 2024 .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 158pm EDT Sat September 14 2024 A trough aloft is passing through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and across the peninsula of Florida today into tonight. A stalled boundary over northern Florida and the southeastern United States sits on the edge of high pressure centered over the northeastern United States. South Florida remains in a very warm, moist airmass but behind the passing trough could come a window of slightly drier air which could allow rain chances to return closer to climatological norms for this time of year on Sunday afternoon. The westerly flow pattern will still favor the advancement of the Gulf sea breeze and pin the Atlantic sea breeze which will allow the peak convective focus to move from inland in the early afternoon to the east coast metro for the late afternoon and evening. Slow-moving storms could again produce an excessive rainfall risk focused along the east coast metro for Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will again reach the lower 90s with heat index values ranging from 105 to 111. Heat Advisories may again be necessary on Sunday. Long Term (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 305pm EDT Sat September 14 2024 Models depict a mid level trough/low complex dominating the SE CONUS to start the long term. Ridging further to the north will provide enough blocking to keep the low lingering in place through the first half of the week. Although its possible that this low could acquire tropical characteristics while moving over the west Atlantic, models suggest it should migrate towards the NE eventually. Pressure gradients between the trough/low and the Atlantic high centered further east will remain very weak, which will translate in prevailing light to variable surface winds over the region, including SoFlo. Flow aloft will remain generally from the SW or W at times. Modest moisture advection and potential for some drier mid level air to filter into SoFlo from the GOMEX early next week may lower PWATs, but not enough to bring POPs down below 50 percent each afternoon. However, enough uncertainty remains in the possible synoptic scenario to expect some revisions to the forecast philosophy. If the west flow aloft continues, it should favor a rain pattern with chances over interior and eastern metro areas of SoFlo. Deeper convection will likely be driven by sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions during the afternoon hours. Max POPs will be kept at or slightly above normals, mainly in the 50-60% range each day. In terms of temps, a little cooler afternoon highs are likely as the overall trend is to remain near seasonal normals (upper 80s-low 90s). However, peak heat indices will likely remain in the low triple digits, but should remain just below heat advisory criteria. Marine Issued at 158pm EDT Sat September 14 2024 Light winds will prevail through the weekend, with winds becoming more westerly on Sunday. Seas across both the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally be at 2 feet or less today, with seas in the Atlantic waters potentially increasing Sunday into early next week as low pressure develops off the southeastern United States and northerly swell builds in. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day and could lead to locally higher winds and seas. Beaches Issued at 158pm EDT Sat September 14 2024 Lingering northerly swell will result in a moderate risk of rip currents along Palm Beaches over the next several days. The rip risk may increase early next week over the Atlantic beaches as higher amplitude northerly swell may move in. From Sunday into early portions of next week, there will be the potential for minor coastal flooding around high tide due to astronomically higher tides. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through at least Wednesday. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. |
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