Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: N 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Patchy Fog After Midnight. |
| Sat...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: E 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Patchy Fog In The Morning. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Sun...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 25 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Sw 1 Foot At 3 Seconds, Becoming Nw 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And S 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Rough In Exposed Areas. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters Rough In Exposed Areas. |
| Tue...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters Rough In Exposed Areas. |
| Tue Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1245am EST Sat Jan 24 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1241am EST Sat Jan 24 2026 Mesoanalysis early this morning continues to depict the placement of South Florida between expansive mid-level ridging across the Caribbean Sea and several transient lobes of mid-level vorticity present across most of the continental United States today. Mid- level flow (500mb) will gradually orient itself into more of a zonal pattern throughout the course of today into tonight as the axis of mid-level ridging to our south gradually slides eastward. Closer to the surface, 850mb wind flow will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction across the region as an area of low pressure develops along a stationary boundary across the northern Gulf coast. The placement of South Florida in the warm sector of the sprawling system to our north will facilitate a continuation of above average temperatures in the short term, something that we will discuss in greater detail below. Surface analysis at this hour continues to depict a slight perturbation in wind direction and precipitable water values as a decaying surface trough remains just to the east of South Florida. Light onshore flow through daybreak will support the continued potential of isolated shower activity from time to time along the immediate east coast and the nearshore Atlantic waters. Similar to last night, precipitable water values once again remain near the 90th percentile for the date with the highest moisture content confined to the lowest tier of the boundary layer. With winds decoupling inland across southwestern Florida and forecast model soundings from the RAP/HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) once again depicting nocturnal stratification and a stout surface inversion, the potential exists once again for dense fog across inland and western locales through 10am this morning. The latest HREF probabilities for 0.25 mile visibility or less this morning are roughly in the 50-70% (medium to high) range as of the writing of this discussion. Peninsular drainage flow may once again result in the advection of fog and a low cloud deck towards coastal southwestern Florida over the next several hours. As always, forecasting fog is not an exact science and small alterations in cloud cover and wind speeds can result in greater (or less) spatial and temporal coverage. Conditions will continue to be monitored this morning for the need of any Dense Fog Advisories for portions of South Florida. With the light surface wind speeds across the region, the differential diurnal heating between the land and water interface will result in both an Atlantic & Gulf sea-breeze developing during the early afternoon hours, veering winds onshore along both coasts. The combination of low level moisture and mesoscale sea-breeze boundaries could set the stage for some afternoon to early evening shower activity across the region this afternoon. While the current forecast shows high temperatures in the mid 80s across inland southwestern Florida and the lower 80s along both coasts, the NBM 75th and 90th percentile once again depict the potential of upper 80s across inland southwestern Florida this afternoon. For comparison, seasonal norms for this time of year are high temperatures in the middle 70s at all four of our historical observing sites (KMIA, KFLL, KPBI, and KAPF) here in South Florida. Surface winds will gradually veer to a southeasterly to southerly direction late tonight into early Sunday as the previously stationary frontal boundary across northern Florida begins to lift northwards. On Sunday, The Florida peninsula (and us here in South Florida) will be on a proverbial island per se as surface flow veers to a southerly direction and warm air advection brings continued nocturnal and diurnal temperatures that are several degrees above average. To the north a combination of an arctic airmass to the west of the developing low pressure system and C.A.D. (Cold Air Damming) across the southern Appalachians will create a sharp temperature gradient across the southeastern United States during this time frame. However the main synoptic boost for the developing system is forecast to occur later on Sunday as a strong cut-off low phases with the larger positively tilted mid-level trough. This will in turn create a very strong jet-steak over the southeastern United States which will allow for a second surface low pressure system just offshore of South & North Carolina to deepen and intensify as it accelerates to the northeast. This strengthening/deepening of the low pressure system just offshore of the southeastern United States & Mid Atlantic (and associated warm and cold frontal boundaries) will have a direct impact here in South Florida as southerly surface winds enhance and become breezy during the day on Sunday. High temperatures will range from the low 80s along the immediate coastline, low to mid 80s across inland suburbs, and a large spatial extent of upper 80s across inland South Florida and near Lake Okeechobee. Depending on cloud cover, a few inland locales could reach the lower 90s as far as ambient temperature with widespread ambient temperatures in the lower 90s across most of South Florida with the exception of coastal communities. Long Term (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1241am EST Sat Jan 24 2026 As the surface low offshore of the mid-Atlantic accelerates northeastward in tandem with the mid-level trough, a cold front will accelerate eastward across the Gulf during the day on Monday. Model guidance continues to oscillate between an earlier or later frontal passage progression. The latest 00z guidance has trended later in timing which has resulted in a reversal of trends observed last night. This in turn has resulted in a slight increase in forecasted high temperatures with the latest forecast update. High temperatures on Monday afternoon are now forecast to range from the upper 70s across the northwestern half of South Florida to values in the mid 80s across most of the east coast metro. It is worth noting once again that the NBM 75th and NBM 90th percentiles depict the potential of high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 across the eastern half of South Florida on Monday afternoon. Even with the mean forecasted temperature values in the mid 80s, apparent temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the eastern half of the region on Monday afternoon. NWS Heat Risk continues to depict a minor (level 1 of 4) heat risk for the east coast metro on Monday which means that heat could affect primarily those who are extremely sensitive to heat and do not have access to cooling or hydration. A narrow pool of deeper atmospheric moisture along the boundary may result in the potential for a few showers ahead of the frontal boundary on Monday and the latest forecast continues to depict a 20-50% chance of precipitation across most of the region on Monday. Southwesterly winds ahead of the boundary will quickly veer westerly than northwesterly with a notable temperature drop as the front sweeps southward across the region. A developing pressure gradient behind the frontal boundary will result in gusty conditions on Monday afternoon, especially along the coast and across our local waters. The trend of a longer duration of northerly flow (as opposed to winds shifting to a northeast direction) has continued over the past 24 hours and now depicts northerly flow continuing into the mid- week period. This trend has resulted in the continuation of a colder forecast now being depicted for Tuesday morning as temperatures in the upper 30s are now forecast across a larger area just west of Lake Okeechobee. Nocturnal wind speeds have also trended higher with the later progression of the frontal passage. The combination of brisk northerly winds and dropping temperatures will result in the potential of apparent temperatures in the 30s across a large swath of South Florida with apparent temperature values below freezing possible across communities in inland southwestern Florida on Tuesday morning. We are still a few days out from Tuesday morning so alterations (colder or warmer) in the forecast could stay play out as frontal timing will be key in what transpires. With the dry and continental airmass filtering into the region via northerly flow during the day on Tuesday, high temperatures are currently forecast to reach the low to upper 60s, which is well below average compared to seasonal norms. As dewpoints and relative humidity values drop, wind speeds will be have to monitored closely on Tuesday and for much of the upcoming week as vegetation across South Florida remains drier than normal for this time of year (Moderate to Severe Drought prevails across all of South Florida). Aloft, mid-level flow will become zonal in nature as several lobes of embedded mid-level vorticity continue to advect across the eastern and central United States. High pressure at the surface will remain in firm control during this time frame as winds gradually lessen as the pressure gradient slowly weakens. Temperatures will moderate slightly on Wednesday, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s across the region. By the end of the week, Most model members depict a very deep and robust trough digging southward across the eastern United States, followed by a robust and anomalous strong 850mb high. Cluster analysis depicts forecasted 850mb heigheights being below the 5th percentile compared to historical norms for this time of year, highlighting just how robust the high pressure (and pool of arctic air) may be across the region. This pattern combined with any residual snow/ice cover across the southeastern United States could result in strong northwesterly flow across the Florida Peninsula and below normal temperatures persisting late into the week. Details remain murky as we remain at the tail end of the extended period but the Climate Prediction Center highligheights a high chance (90-100%) chance of below normal temperatures Thursday into next Saturday. A moderate risk of much below normal temperatures has also been maintained for this time period. The potential exists for a prolonged duration of high temperatures below 70s degrees across the region for much of the extended period. Finishing off the long term discussion with the same piece of forecasting wisdom that was shared last night, you continue to see specific long-run deterministic runs that are widely shared on social media of exact temperature values. Outside of 1 to 2 days (and even then), forecasting exact temperature values to a T is quite difficult, especially roughly a week out. Be sure to check back over the next several days as details become more clear. Marine Issued at 1241am EST Sat Jan 24 2026 Benign marine conditions will continue for the remainder of today as winds will veer to a westerly direction across the nearshore Gulf waters this afternoon and enhance out of an easterly direction across the nearshore Atlantic waters during this same time frame. A few showers remain in the forecast through this evening which may result in locally elevated seas and winds with the greatest probabilities residing across the Gulfstream waters. Winds will begin to veer to a southerly direction across all waters late tonight into Sunday, enhancing to SCEC (small craft exercise caution conditons) levels across the northern Atlantic waters during the afternoon hours of Sunday. A period of prolonged hazardous marine conditions may materialize across the local waters behind a series of frontal passages next week. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. |
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