Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 Kt, Increasing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Patchy Fog After Midnight. |
| Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: W 1 Foot At 5 Seconds, Becoming Nw 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Wed Through Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: N 3 Ft At 4 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Thu Night And Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And N 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 315pm EST Monday Jan 13 2025 ...New Long Term .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1200pm EST Monday Jan 13 2025 A negative NAO regime across the eastern United States characterized by continued northeastern US/Great Lakes troughing persists today. The greatest synoptic dynamics however remain well to the north of the region associated with a unified jet-streak across the southeastern United States. In the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a weak surface low attached to a cold front boundary as well as a pseudo (meager) warm front boundary. At the same time, the axis of surface ridging has shifted further east into the western Atlantic waters which has resulted in winds shifting to a southeasterly component via anti-cyclonic flow. The placement of our area between these two features (and in the warm sector of the approaching frontal system) will result in a warm January day across the region with above average temperatures. Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are forecast along the coast with slightly warmer temps in the low 80s inland. A look at ACARS data and the 12z MFL sounding data reveal a dry & stable atmospheric profile with very limited instability to speak of. Outside of a few pesky low level clouds advecting into the east coast metro area, rain chances will remain minimal today. The main story in the short term (and really the only topic of the short term that has this forecaster excited) will be the fog potential overnight. While the line of showers associated with the surface low and front will dwindle as it approaches the region (as a weak mid-level impulse outruns it to the northeast), an envelope of deeper low level moisture will filter into the region. Like a head chef in a professional kitchen, the combination of ingredients (ample low level moisture, light winds, clear skies, cooler Gulf shelf waters) will set the stage for a master class of a dish (in this case a classic dry season marine advection & radiational fog setup). HREF and SREF probability guidance begin to increase shortly after sunset along the local Gulf waters gradually increasing in coverage and density during the overnight hours. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall spatial extent of fog as a lot depends on the timing of the frontal boundary across the region. One last nugget of the fog forecast, forecast model soundings from the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) and RAP tonight both indicate the forecasted presence of an inversion settling in place across the region. It would not be out of the realm of possibilities for patches of dense fog to impact inland suburbs of the east coast metro with the most dense fog remaining in place across southern inland locations. With the passage of the frontal boundary across the region after daybreak, winds will veer from a southwesterly direction to a westerly than northwesterly direction and enhance as a pressure gradient develops between ridging over the southeastern United States and the departing frontal boundary to the south. The timing of the frontal passage will result in a temperature gradient for high temps with upper 60s possible near Lake O and temperatures near 80F across the southern extent of SoFlo. Long Term (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 239pm EST Monday Jan 13 2025 The cold front is expected to be south of the area over the Straits of Florida Tuesday night, but with the zonal flow aloft there will likely be some leftover clouds/precipitation lagging behind the front. We will keep some low-end Probability of Precipitation (20%) for the east coast metro and Atlantic waters Tuesday night. Some drier air should filter into South Florida in N-NE flow behind the front on Wednesday as continental high pressure builds back into the region, resulting in mainly dry conditions through Wednesday night. There's some notable differences in the model guidance for the Thursday/Thursday night time frame, particularly in the handling of a surface wave/low pressure along the old front over the Gulf of Mexico. Most of the guidance shows the surface wave staying south of our area in response to a faster-moving mid-level shortwave trough across the Gulf coast and SE United States. The 12z GFS (Global Forecast System) deterministic is a notable outlier showing a stronger and farther-north surface wave moving across the southern Florida peninsula Thursday night and a slower-moving and sharper mid-level shortwave. The GFS solution would lead to the likelihood of an extensive area of precipitation moving west/east across South Florida Thursday night, while the majority solution would probably result in no more than spotty light precip. The general pattern supports at least a slight chance of precipitation as there should be a decent amount of moisture streaming east across the Gulf and Florida peninsula north of the shallow frontal boundary and ahead of the mid-level shortwave. Therefore, decided to hold Probability of Precipitation at an area-wide 20% for the Thursday/Thursday night time frame to account for this uncertainty. Drier air will once again enter the region on Friday as the surface high to our north starts to shift east into the Atlantic on Friday. For the upcoming weekend, models are currently showing a broad longwave trough covering much of the CONUS and a frontal system progressing southward into the SE U.S. and Florida by Sunday. In response to this, surface/low-level flow should veer to the S-SW, and the front may be close enough to our area on Sunday to start seeing some scattered showers move into SW Florida and around Lake Okeechobee. As far as temperatures are concerned, cooler air will filter back into the area behind the front Tuesday night, although the N-NE surface/low-level trajectory will limit the strength of the cold air advection especially compared to previous cold episodes. Lows Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to range from upper 40s/near 50 around Lake Okeechobee to the 50s elsewhere (near 60 immediate east coast), with highs both days ranging from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. These temperatures are only about 3-5 degrees below normal, with some decent spread in the guidance related to the amount of cloud cover and potential surface wave development, especially on Thursday. Similar temperatures are expected Friday morning, with temperatures on a warming trend thereafter as winds become southerly ahead of the next system. Friday's highs are forecast to be in the 70s, with highs near 80 on Saturday and potentially lower 80s on Sunday...with lows rising into the 60s. Marine Issued at 1200pm EST Monday Jan 13 2025 Gentle to moderate east southeasterly wind flow across the local waters will gradually become more south southeasterly this afternoon and then more southwesterly tonight out ahead of an approaching cold front. There is the potential of locally dense marine fog across the nearshore waters late tonight into early Tuesday morning. This front will pass through the local waters during the day on Tuesday and a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out especially over the Atlantic waters. Behind the front, winds will increase out of the north northeast and could create hazardous marine conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday across the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3 feet or less through Tuesday morning while Gulf seas remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame. Wave heigheights will increase towards the middle of the week across the Atlantic waters as a northeasterly swell develops. Beaches Issued at 1200pm EST Monday Jan 13 2025 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches through Tuesday. The risk of rip currents will increase across all Atlantic Coast beaches for the middle of the week as a northeasterly swell builds across the Atlantic waters behind a cold front. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. |
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