Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...East Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 2 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Night.|
|Sunday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...East Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...South Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West In The Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 2 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...West Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots Nearshore And West Northwest 5 To 10 Knots Offshore. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.|
|Tuesday...West Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.|
|Wednesday...West Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...South Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Showers Likely. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
| AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
403 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Light to moderate easterly/southeasterly winds should prevail through early next week. Scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected. Winds and seas may be locally higher in and around any showers or thunderstorms.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Oct 22, 2021 at 1200 UTC...
- 18 nautical miles northeast of Fowey Rocks.
- 15 nautical miles east southeast of Port Everglades.
- 14 nautical miles east southeast of Lake Worth.
- 15 nautical miles east northeast of Jupiter Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
748pm EDT Sat Oct 23 2021
A much quieter evening across South Florida compared to yesterday as a few isolated showers continue to push westward in the nearshore Gulf waters. Temperatures remain in the low 80s with dewpoints still hovering in the low 70s at this time. The 00Z MFL Sounding depicts a saturated vertical column but with lackluster lapse rates which have acted as a limiting factor on convective updrafts today. Given radar trends and the presentation of convection this afternoon and evening, decided to lower POPs for the early to mid portion of this evening for most of South Florida. Forecast model guidance hints at a resurgence of convection across the Atlantic waters later in the night, with shower and thunderstorm activity potentially making it onshore at times along the east coast during the early morning hours of Sunday. Elsewhere, No major forecast changes were made at this time.
(Issued 348pm EDT Sat Oct 23 2021)
Short Term - Today Through Sunday
A broad mid to upper level trough will remain over the Eastern United States through rest of this weekend, as a stationary front remains over South Florida. This will allow for an light easterly surface flow to remain over the region, while the mid to upper level flow will be from the south southwest. This will keep deep tropical moisture in place over South Florida through this weekend. Therefore, scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the interior areas and push slowly back to the east coast metro areas into the early evening hours before moving into the Atlantic waters tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday over South Florida especially over the eastern areas.
With the deep tropical moisture in place, the PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will also remain in the 2 to 2.1 inch range through Sunday afternoon. This will allow for some heavy rainfall to occur over South Florida with the showers and thunderstorms.
Lows tonight will be in the 70s across South Florida with highs on Sunday in the mid to upper 80s. Due to the deep moisture in place, the heat indices will be lower to mid 90s on Sunday over South Florida.
Long Term - Sunday Night through Friday
Monday looks to be the transition day from moist to dry. Low level flow out of the south/southwest will veer through the westerly direction, and the upper pattern will shift as the subtropical jet dips further south and a shortwave moves through the Midwest. This pattern shift will spread large-scale subsidence/drying into the region on Monday night. But through the day on Monday, expect scattered showers and storms to remain - primarily forced by a weak low-level response as the subtropical jet starts to dip south resulting in at least some increased low-level convergence. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s across the interior, and low 70s nearer to the coasts.
Thursday through Friday, a strong shortwave will close off over the MS Valley and slowly cut-off over the Mid-Atlantic by the start of the weekend. While global models had been in good agreement surrounding the timing of this frontal system, the latest runs have some discrepancies between the datasets. There is a little more support for the progressive solution that would result in full frontal passage by Friday morning, so without removing Probability of Precipitation completely have trended the forecast in this direction. Depending on the timing of the front there could be a window Thursday afternoon/evening for a heightened severe weather potential in the form of primarily damaging winds with a tornado or two not completely out of the question. These details will have more clarity as the forecast period draws closer.
AVIATION(18Z TAFS)... Showers and storms should develop over the interior areas and push slowly eastward toward the east coast TAF sites late this afternoon into early this evening. Therefore, VCTS will continue.nue for the east coast TAF sites through 00Z then VCSh after 00Z. KAPF taf site could also see a few storms through 00Z. Tempo groups will be added to the TAF sites when need be this afternoon for the showers and storms. Ceiling and vis will remain in VFR conditions, but could fall down into MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) or even IFR conditons with the passage of the showers and storms. Easterly flow will continue.nue through tonight at all of the TAF sites.
Winds will be easterly at 5 to 10 knots tonight into Sunday before swinging to a south southwest direction early next week. The winds will then remain south southwest but increase to 10 to 15 knots by middle to end of next week. This will keep the seas at 2 feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida rest of this weekend into next week. Therefore, boating conditions looks good through next week outside of any showers or thunderstorms.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.