Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And Ne 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: N 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: N 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: N 4 Ft At 5 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 5 Ft At 4 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 4 Seconds. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 404pm EST Sat Nov 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, Long Term .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 401pm EST Sat Nov 14 2026 - Below average temperatures and dry weather are in the forecast for all of South Florida today. - Breezy northwesterly winds will result in cautionary to hazardous marine conditions across the local Gulf & Atlantic waters through late this morning. - A prolonged period of dangerous marine and beach conditions may occur across the region beginning early next week. .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 401pm EST Sat Nov 14 2026 The first cool snap of the season is finally here! Surface and satellite observations show a dry, cool air mass overspreading the entire southeastern United States today as high pressure builds, while a cold front lingers across the Florida Straits. The interaction between the two surface features have helped maintain a breezy northeasterly surface flow across South Florida, which has aided in the cooling sensation this morning. In fact, temperatures across the Florida peninsula have struggled to peak past the upper 60s, while dew points have remained in the 30s and 40s, indicative of the influence of the dry air advection over the region. With this setup in place, expect the cool,breezy and sunny conditions to prevail for the rest of the day, with zero chances for rainfall and barely any cloud coverage to speak of. Overnight temperatures will also remain chilly, dropping into the upper 50s along the coasts, and low 50s across the interior, The lingering cold front should finally fizzle out by tomorrow, allowing the surface high to continue building south across our area. As a result, winds will gradually shift from the east- northeast, advecting some slightly moister, warmer air over the area. Temperatures might still remain below average, peaking in the mid to upper 70s, but subsidence and dry air associated with the high pressure area will help keep rain chances to a minimum. Long Term (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 401pm EST Sat Nov 14 2026 The dry and cool post-frontal conditions seen this weekend will gradually warm and moisten toward the start of next week. A broad surface high over the eastern United States will veers winds to a more northeasterly flow, advecting warm moist air from the Atlantic waters. Thanks to this influx of moisture, temperatures and dewpoints will begin to climb going into early next week. High temps in the upper 70s to low 80s will return along with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heading into the middle of next week, a northern jet appears to set up aloft across North Florida. This jet could pull along with it a shortwave trough that is forecast to develop over the southern Plains, resulting in an increase in Probability of Precipitation and surface winds for parts of SoFlo. Guidance agrees on the eastward propagation of this mid- level shortwave feature approaching the Florida peninsula around midweek. An associated surface low will develop and move east along with the parent mid-level shortwave. As this low nears Florida and interacts with the surface high settled over the eastern CONUS, a gradual tightening the pressure gradient over the SoFlo region will take place. Placement and intensity of the surface low will depend on the strength and positioning of the shortwave trough. Currently, GEFS, GEPS and EPS guidance suggest a weaker and more southerly track for the shortwave, which would push the associated surface low further south of the SoFlo region. Further analysis of these ensemble systems show some split within each model's member envelope. The GEFS members appear split on whether the surface low will develop over the Gulf or over the coastal Carolina waters, which is also supported by the EPS ensemble membership. With all of these potential solutions to consider, uncertainty regarding the resulting sensible weather across South Florida mid-to- late next week remains high. What is more certain is that a tighter pressure gradient will increase surface winds early next week, particularly over coastal waters, calling for a gusty week ahead with the potential for hazardous marine conditions. Higher rain chances will be likely throughout the later half next week regardless of the positioning of the surface low. Activity should mostly be confined to the eastern metros as typical coastal convergence sets up around mid-week. However, given the scenario where the surface low sets up near the Carolinas rather than over the eastern Gulf, increased coastal convergence and moisture transport could increase rain chances. Marine Issued at 114am EST Sat Nov 14 2026 A fresh to strong northwesterly wind flow will be in place across the Atlantic waters this morning, decreasing to a gentle to moderate breeze during the afternoon hours and continuing into Sunday. A moderate to fresh northerly wind flow will be in place across the Gulf waters, becoming a northeasterly wind across all local waters on Sunday. Seas across the Atlantic waters today will be between 4-7 feet with seas across the Gulf waters remaining in the 2-4 feet range. Seas decrease to 3-5 feet across the Atlantic on Sunday and to 2-3 feet across the Gulf but increase once again into early next week as winds increase across the region. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. |
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