Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Se Winds 10 Kt...Becoming E Late. Waves 1 Ft. Numerous Showers. Scattered Tstms Late This Evening, Then Isolated Tstms.|
|Sat...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Sun...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Mon...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
930pm EDT Fri August 7 2020
A front will remain just to our south before dissipating over the weekend. High pressure will then build briefly over our area Saturday. Upper level ridge next week brings warm and more humid weather along with continue chances for storms.
Near Term - Through Saturday
Mid-level dry air is advecting in from the west per NESDIS Blended TPW product and 00Z IAD sounding, but not fast enough. T-storms are still ongoing over eastern MD and central VA and an outflow is currently pushing through IAD and DCA and is helping to spark new convection. While the threat of flash flooding is diminishing, there is still a risk over eastern and southern MD with current line of t-storms moving through. Have canceled watch where the threat is over. After the storms end later tonight, expect another round of low clouds and possible fog.
Continued mid-level dry air advection tomorrow should limit areal coverage to isolated. Much drier air works into the area Sat night inhibiting t-storm development.
Short Term - Saturday Night Through Sunday Night
The upper level trough should move out of our region Saturday. A few pop showers/storms will be possible along the elevations and in central Virginia/ southern Maryland but the strength should be limited due to lack of good upper level forcing. I have kept high end slight chance probability of precipitation to low end chance probability of precipitation as I believe any showers/storms that form will be very isolated. The threat for any precipitation should taper off by Saturday evening with dry condtions expected through Sunday morning. Temps will run in the mid 80s on Saturday with upper 80s to low 90s on Sunday. There is a hint of a weak trough moving through on Sunday which could kick off some showers in central Virginia and south and east of the I-95 corridor. I think mainly showers and isolated in nature. This weekend should be the nicest of the up coming week.
Long Term - Monday Through Friday
A persistent trough of low pressure is expected to set up on the leeside of the Appalachians nearly each day Monday through Wednesday. This combined with a feed of warmth and humidity from the south will set the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will top out near 90 to the lower 90s each afternoon with overnight low temperatures near 70 to lower 70s. Heat indices values will reach the lower 100s Tuesday and Wednesday.
A cold front will approach our region late Wednesday, or perhaps by Thursday. Increasing clouds and shower and thunderstorm activity will be expected with this front late Wednesday and Thursday. The cloud cover and rain chances could keep us a couple of degrees cooler Thursday with highs in the middle to upper 80s.
The cold front could be on our doorstep or set up shop over our region on Friday. This will only add to the chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Highs should reach the middle to upper 80s.
The weak boundary that has been near our marine areas will shift out early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be threat this evening for our marine areas. No Small Craft issues expected for the weekend.
No marine hazards expected Monday through Tuesday night. Some thunderstorms during the afternoon hours could generate special marine warnings. Winds south around 10 knots throughout the period
Risk of flash flooding is diminishing, but still remains some threat over east central and southern MD.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...Flash Flood Watch until 2am EDT Saturday for DCZ001. MD...Flash Flood Watch until 2am EDT Saturday for MDZ013-014- 016>018-503-504. VA...Flash Flood Watch until 2am EDT Saturday for VAZ036>040- 050>057-501-502-505>508. WV...None. MARINE...None.