Marine Weather Net

Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUE

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ541 Forecast Issued: 1036 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
Rest Of Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt... Becoming N With Gusts To 25 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers Likely. Tstms Likely Late This Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Tstms.
Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Wed...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Day. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night.
Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1008pm EDT Sunday May 22 2022

Synopsis
A cold front will continue to pass through the area tonight. The front will stall over the Carolinas Monday and Tuesday before returning north as a warm front Wednesday through Thursday as low pressure passes by to the west. The cold front associated with that low may cross the area by Friday.

Near Term - Through Tonight
A cold front has continued to move through the area tonight. A few strong storms are lingering over the Chesapeake Bay. This will persist over the next 1-2 hours with trailing stratiform rain behind. Multiple flood warnings remain in effect along the I-95 corridor for the next several hours. Behind the remaining rainfall will be much quieter conditions with cooling temperatures. Overnight lows will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler tonight versus last night as a result of the cooler airmass behind the front. Clouds will persist overnight as the saturated airmass lingers off to the south of the area and will likely stall nearby.

Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday Night
The cold front will stall out over the Carolinas for Monday through Tuesday night while high pressure remains to the north. An upper-level trough will develop over the Rockies and central CONUS during this time.

An upper-level disturbance will pass nearby to our south in the southern stream Monday through Monday night, and this combined with the upper-level trough out west will cause warm and moist air to overrun cooler air in place. This will bring plenty of clouds along with the likelihood for rain across portions of the area. The main uncertainty is how far north and east the rain makes it before it runs into drier air and subsidence associated with the high to the north. As of now, it looks like the best chance for rain Monday will be south and west of the Potomac River.

Plenty of clouds and cool weather will hang around for Monday night through Tuesday night due to an onshore flow around high pressure to our north. Some rain is possible, especially across central and southern areas closer to upper-level disturbances and shortwaves just to the south. However, there is still some divergence among guidance so confidence is low at this time.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
A warm front will continue moving north through the region on Wednesday. Uncertainty exists regarding how far north the warm front will make it due to a strong area of high pressure displaced to the north. This will result in a return flow developing out of the south resulting in a moisture and temperature return. Ahead of the warm front, an on-shore flow will likely lead to mostly cloudy skies and cooler conditions.

Thursday the region likely remains in the warm sector with the associated cold front to the west of the region across the Ohio valley. A strong southerly flow is likely to form which will lead to strong warm air advection. warm air advection will lead to daytime temperatures peaking in the low to mid 80s and will likely lead to an increasingly unstable air mass with CAPE values potentially over 1500 J/kg. PW values (Precipitable Water values) may reach above 1.6 inches Thursday afternoon into early Friday which could prime the environment for isolated heavy downpours. Showers are likely on Thursday with a chance for pulse thunderstorms from the relative unstable airmass. The greater threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will likely occur late Thursday into Friday. The forcing is better to the north, but the negative tilt of the trough could result in added dynamics in an unstable environment increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms. The timing of the frontal passage may hamper the initiation of convection Thursday evening, though details will be refined with the frontal passage timing. Showers along with a chance for strong thunderstorms will be possible through early Friday afternoon as the front progress through our region.

Behind the frontal passage, high pressure is forecast to build into our region through the weekend leading to a return of dry and somewhat cooler conditions.

Marine
An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in effect for northwest winds behind the cold front that will turn north toward Monday morning. Winds should decrease some later Monday, but an onshore flow may strengthen again Tuesday and Tuesday night with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible.

SubSCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely for Wednesday but a southerly channeling flow forming on Thursday may require Small Craft Advisories.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Elevated anomalies will cause water levels to be around action stage through high tide tonight. Anomalies should decrease Monday with a northerly wind.

Climate
Please see record event reports (RERs) for records reached on Saturday. Below is a list of temperature records today.

-------------------------------------------------------------- Record Daily Warm Low Temperatures for May 22nd -------------------------------------------------------------- Washington DC area........71 F (set in 1959).................. Baltimore MD area.........71 F (set in 1903).................. Sterling/Dulles VA area...67 F (set in 1975).................. Martinsburg WV area.......68 F (set in 1959).................. --------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------- Record Daily High Temperatures for May 22nd -------------------------------------------------------------- Washington DC area........96 F (set in 1941).................. Baltimore MD area.........98 F (set in 1941).................. Sterling/Dulles VA area...89 F (set in 2021).................. Martinsburg WV area.......98 F (set in 1934).................. --------------------------------------------------------------

Temperature records for the Washington DC area have been recorded at what is now Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA) since 1941. The official weather record consists of that data back to 1945, and observations taken in downtown Washington from 1872 through 1944.

Temperature records for the Baltimore MD area have been recorded at what is now Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (KBWI) since 1950. The official weather record consists of that data, and observations taken in downtown Baltimore from 1872 through 1949.

Temperature records for the Sterling/Dulles VA area have been recorded at what is now Washington Dulles International Airport (KIAD) since 1960. The official weather record consists solely of that data.

Temperature records for the Martinsburg WV area have been recorded at what is now Eastern West Virginia Regional Airport (KMRB) since 1938. The official weather record consists of that data back to 1944, and observations taken in downtown Martinsburg from 1891 through 1943.

All climate data is considered preliminary until reviewed and certified by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT Monday for ANZ531>534-537- 539>543. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT Monday for ANZ530-535-536- 538.