Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...W Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...E Winds Around 5 Kt...Becoming S. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1045am EDT Sunday August 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added in a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm to the east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon into this evening. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Slight chance for a shower or storm this afternoon, then dry conditions anticipated through early portions of the week. - 2) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 1...Slight chance for a shower or storm this afternoon, then dry conditions anticipated through early portions of the week. Current water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low in place over the Great Lakes, with broad troughing extending further out along the East Coast. Locally, we are situated just downstream of the primary trough axis. Drier air should continue to advect in at low-levels within westerly flow over the course of the day, but some weak instability (around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) may develop by peak heating. Forecast soundings show very dry air in place at mid-levels along with a weakness/slightly warmer layer likely tied to large scale subsidence. CAMs suggest that a few showers or even a thunderstorm or two may potentially form later this afternoon, especially to the east of the Blue Ridge as the upper trough axis moves through. However, most locations are expected to remain dry. While conditions overall appear relatively hostile toward deeper convection developing, if a deeper storm were to develop, there could be a conditional threat for some small hail, given cooler, drier thermal profiles, minimal CAPE below the freezing level, and straight line hodographs with very little low-level shear, but respectable shear (around 35-40 kts 0-6 km) through the mid- upper levels. Any showers or storms should quickly dissipate with loss of daytime heating this evening. On Monday, we are expecting a cold front to pass through our region. Behind the front, northwesterly winds usher in dry air from central Canada. These sub-60F dewpoints could persist until midweek. With high pressure building over the Appalachian Mountains, drier and cooler conditions could last until late Tuesday. Overall, we are expecting highs to remain in the 70s and mid 80s early this week. Overnight lows ranging in the 50s and 60s throughout the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid- week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. Beginning Wednesday, a warm tropical air mass tracks northeast over the Mid-Atlantic, bringing humidity back to summertime normals as well as a gradual increase in temperatures. A shortwave upper-level trough will begin to form over the Great Lakes region and track eastward towards the coast between Wednesday and Thursday, and this combined with the increase in heat & humidity will create additional chances for rain & thunderstorm development across the region. Model guidance continues to show only marginal chances regarding any of these thunderstorms becoming severe, with some uncertainty remaining in the overall track of this system. Current guidance suggests that this system could be slow-moving across the region, with rain chances potentially extending into the end of the week as this system slowly tracks offshore. Overall, expect increasing humidity along with a few chances for rain late next week as this system slowly tracks towards the coast. Upper-level zonal flow takes over as this trough tracks east. Marine Winds turn out of the WNW to NW through Tuesday, and should remain sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) throughout that period for the most part. A few gusts near 18 knots are possible, especially further north and during the afternoon hours, but not seeing a prolonged period enough to warrant an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) at this time. Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds could reach marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions again Thursday evening as a cold front passes through the region. Scattered showers & thunderstorms in this timeframe could also create locally gusty winds over the waters, perhaps necessitating SMWs. Tides / Coastal Flooding Tidal anomalies are expected to decrease over the course of the day today as winds turn out of the west. Annapolis may reach Action Stage around high tide, but no tidal flooding is anticipated. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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