Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Isolated Tstms. Isolated Showers Late This Morning, Then Scattered Showers This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sat Night...W Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1023am EDT Thu May 15 2025 Synopsis Low pressure will drift toward the northeast today while a warm front approaches from the west by tonight. Low pressure will move into the Great Lakes Region Friday, with a trailing cold front pushing through the area Saturday. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and Monday. Near Term - Through Tonight MORNING UPDATE: The trough axis continues to push off to the northeast, with the latest analysis depicting it somewhere across northeastern MD. There are still a few spotty showers over this area as well, but perhaps even a bit less in coverage than initially expected. So the one change that was made was to try and push those showers out a little quicker. PREVIOUSlouds may take well into the afternoon to break up northeast of the Potomac, while more sun is expected to the southwest. A few showers may regenerate near the trough axis in northeast Maryland in the afternoon, but southwestern areas will be the place to watch for more impactful thunderstorms. Forcing is somewhat nebulous besides terrain lift and the leading edge of warm advection...as otherwise heigheights will be rising. However, most models show scattered storms developing near the central Appalachians to Blue Ridge vicinity this afternoon before progressing southeast by this evening. CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and shear up to 40 kt could support severe storms with a large hail and damaging wind threat. Storm Prediction Center has added a slight risk for severe storms. The storms should have decent motion...however with this area being hydrologically sensitive with many streams running high, can't rule out an isolated flood issue. WPC expanded a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across the region for this reason. Most 00Z guidance keeps these stronger storms south of I-66 (if not much farther south). Locations that see appreciable sun today should approach/exceed 80, while locations to the northeast stay in the mid 70s. After storms move to the southeast during the evening there should be a quiet period as temperatures fall back to the 60s. Some patchy fog or low clouds could develop, with the best signal across northern Maryland. See short term section for discussion about additional thunderstorm chances. Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night From late Thursday night through Saturday, much uncertainty exists around thunderstorm chance...with a high dependence on what happens upstream, both in terms of advection, and how the local environment may be modified. Current guidance favors several periods, but this could obviously change: First is convection that forms along the warm front upstream which could move into the area any time from around/just after midnight tonight through 8am Friday morning. Most guidance shows this activity weakening, but at least some storms may be supported by elevated instability and shear. Second is something originating from the southwest into Friday afternoon, though this carries the most uncertainty. If no forcing can move into the area Friday, it could turn out pretty dry, as forecast soundings exhibit a fairly strong cap. Third will be upstream convection that may arrive late Friday night into Saturday morning. The question is whether this survives in tact or regenerates during the day Saturday along its outflow. Throughout the period, CAPE and shear would be supportive of severe thunderstorms, especially any that are previously organized and/or develop locally during peak heating. Storms should generally be progressive, but will have to monitor the flooding threat as well. Hopefully details can be refined moving forward. Assuming early clouds/rain are not too widespread, Friday will turn out rather hot and humid with highs well into the 80s. Some locations could have heat indices in the lower 90s. The same can be said for Saturday after a very mild start. It's possible the cold front clears the area Saturday morning, with clearing/drying and breezy conditions in the afternoon however. The secondary cold front may bring some upslope showers Saturday night. Otherwise temperatures will start cooling off. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday An upper low/trough is forecast to be pivoting by to the north to start the second half of the weekend. This trough slowly departs toward the Canadian Maritimes and into the North Atlantic Monday into Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore as high pressure builds well to the north near James Bay. The result locally should be a period of cooler and drier weather with NW winds. A sharp but narrow ridge crests over the eastern CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday before another trough approaches the Great Lakes inducing height falls along the East Coast mid next week. This should offer the next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures look to be near to below normal through the extended. Marine Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions should prevail through Friday night with winds becoming southerly today and southwesterly Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across mainly the southern Maryland waters this afternoon and evening. Additional strong thunderstorms could affect the waters at times through Saturday, although timing and coverage remain uncertain. A cold front will push through Saturday, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely in its wake. NW winds may gust 20-25 kts Sunday before becoming lighter Sunday night into Monday. Tides / Coastal Flooding Georgetown will have some freshwater related flooding by this morning, and a Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for this threat. Current forecast brings Georgetown to Moderate for much of the day on Thursday as a result of the freshwater influence flowing down from the west. Water should recede Friday. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4pm EDT Friday for DCZ001. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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