Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain, Snow With A Slight Chance Of Sleet. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt... Becoming W 5 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt... Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sun...Se Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft...Building To 3 Ft After Midnight. Showers Likely In The Evening. Showers After Midnight. |
| Mon...S Winds 25 To 30 Kt...Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 3 Ft. Showers. A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1002am EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freshened up the hourly forecast details for today, but otherwise no substantial changes at this time. There was a 15 percent severe weather outlook issued for Day 5/Monday for a large part of the forecast area. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A brief period of snow may occur on the tail end of a frontal passage later this morning into the afternoon. - 2) Another strong cold front will bring strong southerly winds on Friday. - 3) Another strong cold front will arrive early next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...A brief period of snow may occur on the tail end of a frontal passage later this morning into the afternoon. A potent cold front has pushed southeast of the area this morning. Temperatures have been rapidly falling from NW to SE. Anafrontal showers have been occurring, with a coating of snow noted in the higher elevations of the Alleghenies as temperatures have fallen below freezing. Snow is also showing up in webcams along the Blue Ridge. Regional radar has the appearance that the back edge of the precipitation shield is hanging back farther west than predicted. However, observations show dry conditions now in Cumberland and Petersburg, evidence of low level dry advection undercutting the mid level precipitation generation. Coverage/duration could still further expand east of the Blue Ridge as the right entrance to the upper jet and sharp mid level trough axis move through. With the rapid low level cold advection, most models continue to show this precipitation changing over to snow. This will likely be rate- based as near surface temperatures should still be above freezing in the lower elevations. In addition, all the forcing is in the mid levels, with dry advection noted beneath in forecast soundings. Models are also often biased too cold in these post frontal downslope scenarios. So while some snow is likely as precipitation ends, impacts should be limited given the recent warmth. Outside of the mountains, a few tenths of an inch on grassy surfaces can't be ruled out, with the best chance south and east of the DC metro, where there is higher confidence for those aforementioned heavier rates. Additionally, guidance really trended up overnight, with increased confidence in one to three inches of snowfall on the Blue Ridge. Winter Weather Advisories were hoisted as a result. Briefly, skyline drive could experience some very heavy snow and low visibilities, with roads becoming slushy. Do think this should melt off relatively quickly given the recent record warmth across much of the region. But given the potential rates, certainty could see that warmth at least be briefly overcome. Overall, don't expect significant impacts from this event outside of those Blue Ridge zones, but some guidance does depict some very heavy snowfall on the back end of this front, particularly over southern MD. So will have to watch the evolution of this event closely, especially with regards to how temperatures are stacking up with model initialization. The other aspect of the front will be gusty northwest winds. There have been a few sporadic wind gusts up to 50 mph in the postfrontal pressure rises, but winds should level out this afternoon. Winds diminish quickly this evening as high pressure slides by to the south. Subfreezing low temperatures will return to much of the forecast area tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front will bring strong southerly winds on Friday. Another low pressure system will be moving through the Great Lakes Friday. The increased pressure gradient will result in gusty southwesterly winds. These winds could once again near Wind Advisory criteria in the higher elevations. There could also be fire weather issues due to low humidity (see separate section below). The cold front will push through Friday night with high pressure building in from the west Saturday. Little to no precipitation is expected, and the net effect will only have minimal impacts on temperatures. In fact, temperatures will likely remain slightly above average through Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front will arrive early next week. A third cold front associated with a powerful low pressure across the western Great Lakes will cross the area Monday. Better moisture recovery is expected ahead of this front to result in numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Can't ruled out some severe weather due to the strength of the wind fields. Gusty winds will accompany this front both in the pre-frontal and post-frontal environment. Longwave trough pattern establishes across the East thereafter with strong surface high pressure settling in keeping a much colder than normal pattern for the middle and second half of next week. Marine A strong cold front has pushed south of the waters this morning. Gusts of 25 to 35 kts can be expected. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters as the potential for gale force gusts appears to be rather brief/sporadic this morning. Additionally, showers are expected along this line, which may actually briefly mix with or change to snow. Precipitation clears the area this evening. Winds should decrease fairly quickly later this evening as well. Ahead of the next cold front, southwesterly winds will increase Friday. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are likely. While gusts could approach gale force, think the wind direction and relatively cooler waters will prevent the stronger winds from reaching the surface due to low level stability. The cold front will push through early Saturday morning. While some marginal advisory conditions may persist through the day, overall the westerly winds are forecast to be lighter. Another period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions is expected Sunday lasting through the middle of next week ahead and behind potent cold front forecast to cross the area Monday. Fire Weather Friday and Saturday look somewhat concerning in regards to fire weather, especially Friday. With around a tenth to a quarter of an inch through early this morning already, and more to come, don't anticipate any issues today. However, there will be a sharp decrease in RH later this afternoon, especially west of the Blue Ridge. Additionally, gusty winds out of the WNW will aid in the drying of fuels. So, while the fire weather threat is lower today, it sets the stage for Friday. Friday is where the level of concern increases. Another strong, and this time dry, cold front will be approaching the region before moving through Friday night. Ahead of that, very strong southerly winds pick up. The air mass will also continue to be extremely dry, and could be locally enhanced in downslope flow west of the Blue Ridge. Current forecast has low to mid 20s RHs in the typical drier valleys. Given that the winds likely have dried things out substantially from any rain the day prior, this looks to be a concerning day in regards to fire weather. The main limiting factor will be wet fuels from today's rain, although the lowest amounts will occur west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Saturday may actually be the driest day, behind the frontal passage from Friday night. RH values could drop into the teens across much of the area. Winds will be on the decline, but will remain somewhat elevated, especially along/north of the interstate 66 corridor, where 15-25 mph winds can be expected. More analysis will need to be done to determine the threat for any headlines Saturday, but could see something being necessary on this day as well. Gusty winds but increasing RHs on Sunday ahead of another front, which looks to bring wetting rains Sunday evening/night. Less of a threat Sunday, but any ongoing fires could feel the impacts of some gusty southeasterly flow (20-25 mph gusts). NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for MDZ008. Small Craft Advisory from 10am Friday to 4am EDT Saturday for MDZ008. Wind Advisory from 11am Friday to 2am EDT Saturday for MDZ501-509-510. VA...Wind Advisory from 11am Friday to 2am EDT Saturday for VAZ503. Winter Weather Advisory until 3pm EDT this afternoon for VAZ507-508. Wind Advisory from 11am to 11pm EDT Friday for VAZ507-508. WV...Wind Advisory from 11am Friday to 2am EDT Saturday for WVZ501-503-505. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for ANZ530>543. Small Craft Advisory from 10am Friday to 4am EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543. |
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