Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...E Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 Kt...Becoming E In The Evening, Then Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 940pm EDT Sunday July 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Issued several Coastal Flood Advisories for late tonight/Monday morning. Other than adjusting for hourly trends, tonight's forecast appears on track. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Showers will contract to the I-64 corridor tonight, with patchy fog possible elsewhere. - 2) Heat and humidity return for the middle and second half of the week. - 3) Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated during the the second half of the week in a moderately unstable and sheared environment. KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers will contract to the I-64 corridor tonight, with patchy fog possible elsewhere. With high pressure building southwestward from New England, an effective front pushed east to west across the area during the afternoon and is now reaching the Allegheny Mountains. The heaviest showers developed on the leading edge of this boundary, but radar trends for all activity have been diminishing with sunset. Shower chances may linger near and south of I-64 overnight, closer to overrunning moisture associated with a front over North Carolina. To the north, there should be some breaks in the clouds. This could support some patchy fog development, especially where it rained today. Lower dew points did arrive in the wake of the afternoon boundary, which could lower the chance of fog development. With light winds, however, that drier air will support cooler temperatures than previous nights. Forecast lows are in the lower to mid 60s, potentially remaining warmer where clouds are thicker. KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity return for the middle and second half of the week. Upper high centered over the Dakotas early in the week is expected to expand eastward cresting over the area Tuesday evening. This will support high temperatures in the upper 90s, but dewpoints will not be terribly too high in the 60s. By Thu and Fri, low level moisture returns into the area with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 resulting in heat indices near 100 degs which is still below heat advisory criteria. While it will be hot, it won't be as hot as it was during the first weekend of July. KEY MESSAGE 3...Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated during the the second half of the week in a moderately unstable and sheared environment. During the second half of the week, the upper ridge centered over the Dakotas early in the week will build westward with time while the eastern Canada trough digs southward. This results in moderately strong flow aloft across the area with the synoptic pattern becoming favorable for thunderstorm clusters or MCSs to form over the upper Great Lakes and upper Midwest to track southeastward into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. The earliest we could see thunderstorms it seems to be Thu, but with higher probs of thunderstorms Fri into Sat and likely extending it beyond that. Marine An earlier enhancement to the E/SE winds brought some gusts to around 20 kt up to the Bay Bridge and Route 301 bridge on the Potomac. Expanded the Small Craft Advisory as a result, although gusts have been more sporadic during the late afternoon and early evening. This segment of the advisory may be cancelled early. Some stronger gusts remain possible on the wider mid-bay waters, where the advisory continues through the night. Thereafter, great boating weather is expected Monday through mid week with no thunderstorm potential. Winds will generally be out of the southeast tomorrow, south on Tuesday, southwest on Wednesday, and northwest on Thursday. Tides / Coastal Flooding Onshore to southerly flow continues through midweek, keeping tidal levels elevated. The upcoming new moon is also accentuating the tide cycle. Updated the forecast this evening and issued advisories for Calvert (more so North Beach), Dahlgren, and Alexandria. All will be very close to the minor threshold. Havre de Grace will likely need to be added for the morning high tide should current trends hold. Annapolis could even approach moderate flood stage, but most likely remains below. Guidance does indicate gradually declining anomalies through mid week, but Annapolis in particular may require a day or two more of advisories on the astronomically higher tide. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2am to 8am EDT Monday for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5am EDT Monday for MDZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6am EDT Monday for MDZ018. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5am EDT Monday for VAZ057. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5am to 9am EDT Monday for VAZ054. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ532-533- 536-540>542. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Monday for ANZ534-537-543. |
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