Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt...Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Diminishing To Around 5 Kt In The Evening, Then Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt...Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Likely Through The Night. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 301pm EST Monday Nov 3 2025 Synopsis High pressure continues to build overhead today and tomorrow, ahead of a weak warm front lifting through the forecast area on Wednesday. High pressure returns for thursday before a low pressure system and associated fronts impact the are Friday into the weekend. Near Term - Through Tonight High pressure builds over the SE CONUS this afternoon as a weak, moisture starved cold front pushes across the forecast area overnight. Dry conditions continue through the overnight, with northwest winds blowing 5 to 10 knots. High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the 60s for most with those at higher elevations staying in the 50s. Clear skies are expected overnight with low temperatures dropping into the 30s and 40s across the forecast area. Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night Dry conditions continue Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds overhead. In the wake of a weak cold front, temperatures on Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler with highs in the 50s to low 60s. Winds remain out of the northwest, blowing 5 to 10 knots and gusting 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Overnight low temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 30s for most with only those in the valleys and metro areas staying in the low 40s. On Wednesday, a surface low pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes with the associated warm front lifting north through the forecast area throughout the day. This will yield breezy conditions with southwest winds blowing 10 to 15 knots and gusting 20 to 25 knots. Along the Alleghenies, wind gusts 25 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots possible. Continuing dry conditions leading to dry fuels combined with a dry air mass yielding low RH values, conditions will raise concerns for fire weather. Will continue to monitor at this point. As winds turn more southerly and a warm front moves through, temperatures warm a few degrees compared to Tuesday with highs in the 60s to mid 70s. Higher elevations will stay in the upper 50s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s for most with those in the Alleghenies dipping into the 30s. Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday Behind this system, another dry day can be expected Thursday under the influence of high pressure. Expect temperatures to come back down to the upper 50s to low 60s (mid 40s to low 50s in the mountains). We will remain pretty dry, so there is a small mention in the fire weather discussion below. By Friday, a more substantial upper trough starts to dig towards the Ohio Valley as high pressure retreats offshore. A stronger frontal passage is expected to approach late Friday into Saturday, but exact timing still needs to be worked out as we get closer in time. At first glance, this system seems like it should be better connected to moisture coming out of the Gulf of America, and thus should result in some rain across the region. However, at this stage, am still seeing some signals in guidance that areas further east may struggle to get much moisture out of this. So, while POPs are likely area-wide, the amount of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast received is still very much up in the air at this point. Any shift in the surface and upper-level features at play could yield very different results. A reinforcing cold front, which is most likely going to be dry, will push through on Sunday. This will usher in much cooler air going into next week, perhaps the coolest we have seen so far this fall. Marine Dry conditions are expected across the waters this afternoon through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect beginning this evening as a cold front approaches the waters. Winds drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria Tuesday night before increasing again on Wednesday. Southwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots across the waters on Wednesday with Small Craft Advisories likely. Winds diminish on Thursday with northwest winds dropping below criteria Thursday night. Southerly winds gust 20 to 30 knots on Friday with additional advisories likely. Fire Weather A cold front will push through tonight, but will likely be dry east of the Appalachians. Relative humidity values likely fall into the 20 to 35 percent range Tuesday afternoon, though by that time wind gusts should generally be 15 to 20 mph and somewhat intermittent. Regardless, elevated fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday given long term dryness. A very dry air mass will move into the region as high pressure moves directly overhead. A strong thermal belt is likely to develop over the higher elevations, leading to very poor overnight recoveries on Wednesday morning in the midslopes and on the ridgetops. Some sites may not recover above 40 percent, and some guidance even shows substantially lower recoveries. This dry air mixes down area-wide during the afternoon, and will come with increased winds out of the southwest. Wind gusts are expected to be around 20-30 mph, with isolated gusts close to 40 on the ridges. This, paired with afternoon RH values into the upper 20s to low 30s and increasingly dry fuels could lead to a more notable threat for the spread of wildfires on Wednesday. Another day of low RH expected on Thursday, but winds will be on the decrease throughout the day. So, the wind and RH may not line up at the right time to yield a substantial threat for the spread of wildfires. A cold front will approach the region Friday before moving through Friday night into Saturday. RH values increase ahead of this, and wetting rains are becoming increasingly likely. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Tuesday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Tuesday for ANZ530>543. |
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