Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sun...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
314pm EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2020
Warm front will lift across our region tonight. Front will approach from the north on Wednesday and stall over our area into Saturday. High pressure builds on Sunday into early next week.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
Cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions remain over portions east of the Blue Ridge, with generally partly sunny to sunny conditions west of it and over central Virginia. Southerly flow continues to advect warm air into our region with temperatures in the 70s and near 80 across our area, with highest temperatures over Central Virginia. There could be a few sprinkles near central Maryland due to weak forcing aloft, but remaining dry over the rest of our area.
Warm front lingers just to our west and will stall there through tonight before it starts lifting northeast across our region. Low temperatures will be in the 60s across most of our region.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Warm front will be northeast of our region on Wednesday morning. The dew points will be in the 60s, which will allow for heat index values during the morning rush hour to be between the upper 60s and mid 70s, increasing between the mid 80s and mid 90s by mid afternoon. Dry conditions are expected during the day, but chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase from north to south in the late afternoon and evening as shortwave energy aloft approaches the region, supported by a surface front moving into our area, along with CAPE values between 1000 and 2000 J/kg. Some of these thunderstorms could be severe, especially near the Mason-Dixon line. Storm Prediction Center has this portion of our CWA under a Slight Risk, with Marginal Risk further south.
Storms will diminish Wednesday night leaving us with a few showers. The front will stall over our area Thursday, and with additional shortwave energy aloft, and decent CAPE, showers and thunderstorms are possible again in the afternoon and evening, with chances diminishing into Thursday night.
Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday
Any remaining surface front will be diffuse by Friday and/or modulated by previous convection, as the greatest thermal contrast/wind shift will be located near the Canadian border. Thus expected warm and humid conditions to persist Friday and Saturday. Triggers for convection are a bit uncertain for Friday, but most guidance indicates at least scattered convection given the airmass and pockets of lift in slightly cyclonic flow. Organization could be better Saturday as a trough digs southeastward from the Great Lakes, driving a cold front toward the area. However, timing of these features is still a bit uncertain.
Behind the front, Canadian high pressure will build north of the area for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal with more comfortable humidity levels.
Winds will remain below criteria the rest of today and into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Upper Potomac and the northern portion of the Chesapeake Bay for Wednesday. Not confident enough about the wind gusts reaching criteria for the rest of the waters at this moment, but upcoming shifts will evaluate. There could be thunderstorms moving over the waters Wednesday evening, and then on Thursday as well. Some may require Special Marine Warnings.
Daily thunderstorms, some of which could be strong, will remain possible Friday and Saturday. Light S/SW winds will be replaced by NW winds behind a cold front late Saturday. There is some potential for marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions behind the front.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.