Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Scattered Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
249pm EDT Sunday April 11 2021
A cold front is expected to cross the region early this evening. A second front will swing across the region late Monday into early Tuesday. High pressure will briefly return Tuesday. The next low pressure system may impact the region Wednesday and Thursday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Clouds, mainly low and mid-level, have increased across the western two-thirds of our CWA since around 11am when there was plenty of sunshine. Temperatures may rise another 1 to 3 degrees from where they stand now at peak heating of the day. A few showers are currently on radar over western Maryland and central Virginia. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop, mainly along and east of I-81 the rest of the afternoon into early this evening. We remain in a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms along US 15 and east to the Chesapeake Bay. The main threat with the thunderstorms will be damaging winds and hail. A cold front will pass through the region this evening and push most of the activity out of the CWA before midnight. A dry slot will work its way into the region tonight. Temperatures will drop into the upper 40s to the middle 50s.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
The main low pressure system moving into northern parts of Ohio will send additional pieces of energy toward our CWA on Monday. This combined with any daytime heating may just be enough to destabilize the atmosphere to get showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon. The slow-moving cold core main low will be slow to move to the east then southeast. Therefore, additional showers are possible again on Tuesday. Weak high pressure will build back into the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Another area of low pressure may impact the region towards the latter portion of the week.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
Forecast details remain a bit changeable/uncertain due to decreased predictability in a blocky upper level pattern with multiple closed lows. On Wednesday, shortwave ridging and surface high pressure will be departing quickly to the east. A closed low will be located over the Great Lakes. Shortwave energy and height falls ahead of this low may result in some showers through the day, and eventually development of surface low pressure along an old frontal zone to our south. It's still uncertain at this time if the low will ultimately provide widespread precipitation or just an increased chance of showers. With the gradually approaching upper low, some snow could even occur in the highest elevations. Regardless of precipitation, temperatures will likely be dipping below normal.
Cooler and unsettled weather likely continues through Thursday and possibly into Friday as the closed upper low drifts near or north of the Mid Atlantic. When the low eventually departs, there should be at least 24 hours of dry weather and a slight increase in temperatures. However, model guidance solutions vary widely on the ensuing pattern evolution after that. Another shortwave trough (or two) could bring additional precipitation chances next weekend, but timing is very uncertain for now.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 6 pm for the central Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac.
A cold front, moving through the CWA, could spawn heavy showers and a few thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening. This activity could promote Special Marine Warnings since the main threat with heavy thunderstorms will be damaging winds and hail.
High pressure returns later tonight through Monday night, with a weak gradient and sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected. Another cold front will cross the area early Tuesday, with sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions persisting. Northwest to north winds will continue Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds well to our northwest, however winds look to mainly stay below Advisory thresholds.
Low pressure may track near the area Wednesday into Thursday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed at times as the low tracks nearby, and then in northwest flow in its wake. Low confidence in the details at this time.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
A light onshore flow will continue through Monday and this will cause elevated water levels during this time. Most places are more likely to reach caution stage vs minor flood stage since the flow will be light. However, minor flooding is still possible at sensitive areas like the southwest waterfront in Washington DC.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ534- 537-543.