Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...E Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 Kt...Becoming E In The Evening, Then Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 141am EDT Monday July 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Previous forecast remains on track. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Quiescent weather to start the week with heat building. - 2) Forecast confidence decreases substantially late this week into the upcoming weekend, but the potential is there for both extreme heat and severe thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 1... Quiescent weather to start the week with heat building. Cannot rule out a few upslope rain showers this morning in the swarning CWA, otherwise dry conditions expected today through at least Wednesday (likely longer). High pressure will remain in control through midweek, with heat gradually building. While temps start below average today, they will be above average by Tuesday and well above average by Wed. Cannot rule out Heat Advisories Wed, but it does look like a drier heat than what was experienced around the 4th of July. KEY MESSAGE 2...Forecast confidence decreases substantially late this week into the upcoming weekend, but the potential is there for both extreme heat and severe thunderstorms. Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the longwave pattern across the CONUS late this week into the upcoming weekend will feature troughing across the Pacific NW, ridging over the center of the country, and then troughing downstream across New England. Such a pattern will place us in NW'ly flow aloft. However, there's considerable disagreement regarding the placement of individual shortwaves and their associated surface fronts throughout that period. As a result, there's a highly atypical amount of forecast spread for this time of year during that time window. Ensemble guidance has members showing highs anywhere from the upper 70s to the mid 100s each day Fri through Sun, with above average spread on Thu as well (mid 80s to mid 100s). So depending on which solution verifies, we could have anywhere from well below normal temps to record highs each day. Dry conditions are expected on Thu, but chances for storms start to increase for Fri, Sat, and Sun. Depending on how the pattern evolves, and which side of the frontal boundary we end up on, there could be a potential threat for severe thunderstorms. The forecast temp spread illustrates the unseasonable amount of baroclinicity that will be present, which should translate into unseasonably strong wind fields aloft as well. If we end up on the warm, unstable side of the boundary, the threat would likely be there for severe thunderstorms, with MCSs possible in NW'ly flow aloft. Storm Prediction Center currently has much of the forecast area highlighted in a 15 percent contour for severe thunderstorms on Fri, and WxNext2 AI guidance highligheights additional threats for severe thunderstorms on both Sat and Sun. We'll need to monitor trends over the course of the week, since this is a very conditional threat at the moment, given the atypically high amount of forecast uncertainty. Marine SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect over southern waters through about daybreak. May be able to cancel early if winds continue trending downward. Sub-sca winds through midweek with high pressure overhead. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level NW'ly winds are expected on both Thu and Fri. SMWs may be needed Fri if storms move over the waters. Tides / Coastal Flooding Onshore to s'ly flow continues through midweek, keeping tidal levels elevated. The upcoming new moon is also accentuating the tide cycle. Widespread advisories for minor tidal flooding, though Annapolis could even approach moderate flood stage, but most likely remains below. Guidance does indicate gradually declining anomalies through mid week, but Annapolis in particular may require a day or two more of advisories on the astronomically higher tide. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8am EDT this morning for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5am EDT early this morning for MDZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6am EDT early this morning for MDZ018. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5am EDT early this morning for VAZ057. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5am to 9am EDT this morning for VAZ054. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT early this morning for ANZ534-537-543. |
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