Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tue...E Winds 5 Kt...Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Thu...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
919pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023
Ridging will continue through part of the work week with temperatures rising well above normal through the remainder of the week. Low pressure system approaches by Thursday, bringing the next appreciable chance for widespread precipitation.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Stratocu across the northern half of the area has now mostly dissipated this evening, though cirrus is starting to move in from the west. Gusty winds have decreased and are expected to be light and variable overnight. Lows settle in the mid 20s to around 30F, with dry conditions overall.
Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night
High pressure will begin moving offshore during the day on Tuesday, with southerly flow ushering in a warmer airmass. Later in the day on Tuesday, a cold front will approach from the northwest and will bring some light Quantitative Precipitation Forecast across mainly the Alleghenies and keep the remainder of the area mostly dry, although a few sprinkles further east is not totally out of the question through Wednesday morning. Clouds likely remain plentiful which may limit how much peak diurnal heating occurs.
During the day on Wednesday, mostly dry conditions are expected between the post-frontal airmass and an approaching low pressure system from the southwest. Warm, southerly flow will allow for temperatures to rise into the low to even mid 60s Wednesday afternoon (40s/50s for the higher elevations). Overnight temps ahead of the warm front Wednesday night will be in the 40s and even low 50s for most areas with precipitation chances increasing from the west and move further east throughout the night.
Long Term - Thursday Through Monday
Model guidance is in good agreement that a compact shortwave and associated rapidly deepening surface low will track toward the Great Lakes on Thursday. This shortwave will be embedded in a much larger longwave trough that stretches across the country. Locally, we'll be situated in southwesterly flow aloft/southerly flow at the surface. Southerly flow will maintain well above normal temperatures. The strongest large scale ascent associated with the shortwave will remain well off to our north and west. With an already mild airmass in place ahead of the system, forcing for ascent associated with low- level warm advection will also be limited. The end result will be showers across the area, but in the absence of stronger forcing, rainfall totals aren't expected to be overly impressive. High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to climb into the 60s for most.
As this lead shortwave lifts into Canada, troughing will be maintained in its wake across the Great Lakes/Mississippi Valley on Friday. Continued chances for showers, and well above normal temperatures are expected. On Saturday, the trough will translate further east, allowing colder air to start to filter into the area. Precipitation will end across the majority of the forecast area, but upslope snow showers will be possible along the Allegheny Front. The upper level trough will shift further east on Sunday. Large scale subsidence in its wake will encourage high pressure to build overhead, and bring any upslope snow showers along the Allegheny Front to an end.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds are possible Tuesday afternoon as the high begins to move further offshore but confidence is too low for an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) at this time given the sounding profiles and land/water temperature expectations for the timeframe.
Warm front associated with a low pressure system will bring some lighter S/SE flow during the day on Wednesday before increasing Wednesday night ahead of an associated cold front.
SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) appear likely in southerly flow on Thursday. Winds are expected to drop back down to sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels on Friday.
Well above normal temperatures are forecast across the area from Wednesday through Friday this week. It's possible several daily record highs and warm minimum records are tied or broken.
Below is a list of daily record highs for February 8-10
Climate Site Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb 10 Washington-National (DCA) 74F (2017) 70F (2001) 68F (1960) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 71F (2017) 69F (2001) 63F (2001) Baltimore (BWI) 72F (2017) 69F (2001) 66F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 66F (2017) 67F (2001) 65F (1959) Annapolis (NAK)* 70F (2017) 64F (1949) 63F (1960) Hagerstown (HGR)* 65F (1965) 63F (1960) 62F (2001) Charlottesville (CHO)* 74F (1925) 71F (1965) 72F (1932)
Below is a list of daily record warm minimums for February 8-10
Climate Site Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb 10 Washington-National (DCA) 51F (2017) 46F (1990) 53F (1925) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 52F (2017) 39F (1990) 41F (2020) Baltimore (BWI) 51F (2017) 43F (1878) 49F (1925) Martinsburg, WV (MRB) 46F (2017) 42F (2005) 40F (2020) Annapolis (NAK)* 51F (2017) 42F (1949) 44F (1960) Hagerstown (HGR)* 45F (2017) 44F (2005) 48F (1960) Charlottesville (CHO)* 54F (2017) 47F (1965) 49F (1925)
*records are not officially issued for these stations.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.