Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Nw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 5 Kt...Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. A Chance Of Light Freezing Spray. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. A Chance Of Light Freezing Spray. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Increasing To 30 To 40 Kt. Waves 2 Ft... Building To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Snow In The Afternoon. Snow Likely Through The Night. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 30 To 40 Kt. Waves 4 Ft. A Chance Of Snow In The Morning. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1040am EST Wednesday Jan 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Potential Commuting Hazard Statement has been issued for light snow impacting the late afternoon and evening commute across the Washington DC metro area. Cold Weather Advisories have been reissued for most of the area later this evening into early Thursday morning. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Light snow could impact the late afternoon and early evening commute across the Washington DC metro area. A Potential Commuting Hazard Statement has been issued. - 2) Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills look to continue through the upcoming weekend. - 3) Still monitoring the potential for a weekend coastal Winter Storm. KEY MESSAGE 1...Light snow could impact the late afternoon and early evening commute across the Washington DC metro area. A Potential Commuting Hazard Statement has been issued. Another weak northern stream disturbance will impact the area later this afternoon into tonight. This disturbance will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air along with another chance of snow showers over the mountains. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected outside of Baltimore/Washington DC metro areas where hi-res guidance continues to indicate a pocket of light snow showers/flurries impacting the late afternoon and early evening commute. Current 12z soundings at KPBZ and KIAD indicate ample dry air in the mid- levels (low level RH 64 percent and mid-level RH 20 percent). Hi-res CAMS show a spike in moisture within the low levels as the day progresses on ahead of the shortwave pushing through. With that said, it looks like the moisture will fall out of the lower part of the atmospheric column (3-4kft above us down to the surface) with ample lift through the DGZ (from the shortwave/jet max pushing through). This should promote a period of light flurries or snow showers with limited accumulations under a half an inch. Despite several non- meteorological factors (i.e school closures, road crews already out/treating roads, and increased telework postures amongst businesses) went ahead and issued a Potential Commuting Hazard Statement for the Washington DC metro area. The corridor of concern sits between Hagerstown, MD and southern MD between 3-9pm. The probability for snow to occur is right around 30 percent. If the threat materializes expect slick travel during the evening rush, especially on untreated surfaces. Cold temperatures may negate the extra treatment already on the roadways. Any snow shower activity will diminish east of the mountains after 8-9pm as the shortwave cuts east. For the mountains, expect another dusting-1" of snow with localized pockets up to 2" if any heavier snow showers push through. Did bump up amounts given the higher fluff (ratios greater than 30- 40:1). Bigger story over the mountains will likely be the continuation of blowing and drifting of the fluffy snow. This will lead to continued issues on roadways, especially in open areas (i.e high mountain fields etc.). Continued to run blowing snow over the mountains in coordination with the neighboring offices through Thursday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills look to continue through the upcoming weekend. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for later this evening through early Thursday morning. Portions of central VA remain exempt from these advisories as guidance has trended slightly warmer in these locations (central VA wind chills between 2-7 degrees). Another piece of northern stream energy will drive a reinforcing shot of Arctic cold across the region later this afternoon into tonight. Additional pieces of energy will follow within persistent cyclonic flow which is expected to continue through the upcoming weekend. This will result in a continuation of frigid conditions with highs during the daylight hours struggling to get out of the teens and 20s (single digits mountains) and overnight lows in the single digits and teens (subzero mountains). Wind chill factors will remain at or below zero during the overnight/early morning hours with wind chills in the single digits/teens during the daylight hours. The little bit of sunshine each day should help with marginal melting although refreeze is expected every night. Confidence remains high for the prolonged Arctic outbreak to continue through the weekend with some inclination of getting back toward freezing by the middle of next week. Subtleties associated with Cold Weather headlines will exist each day into the weekend, and there's no longer an obvious "coldest" night...just some slight variations between them. The bottom line is it will be cold and to continue to prepare to protect yourself, others, pets, and livestock. River ice is likely to continue increasing in coverage across the area, with increasing thickness over the coming weeks. This includes portions of the bay along with main stem river/creeks across the region. KEY MESSAGE 3...Still monitoring the potential for a weekend coastal Winter Storm. Nothing has changed in terms of the pattern for a storm along the Eastern Seaboard this wknd. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge, blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east Pac. Couldn't ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive pattern. Latest guidance does reveal northern stream energy is a little stronger and further west/slower. Therefore, eventual ULL is slower to push eastward and slightly further west. This has resulted in a slight shift west in recent storm tracks. Will have to continue to monitor if this is a trend or noise. While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm, there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to sea. Future runs will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the TPV evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm comes to fruition or not and impacts land. TPVs are notoriously not modeled well given the source location with limited UA data. Therefore, expect fluctuations over the next day or so until the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore across the western US. Marine Sub- SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level west to northwest winds are expected later this afternoon into this evening. Another front will pass tonight. Winds increase behind the front with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) likely late tonight through Thursday. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) NW'ly winds are expected on Fri. Winds will shift to out of the north on Sat and pick up. At least SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) appear likely on Sat, with gales possible if a stronger coastal develops. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...Cold Weather Advisory until 11am EST this morning for DCZ001. Cold Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 11am EST Thursday for DCZ001. MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 11am EST this morning for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508. Cold Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 11am EST Thursday for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508. Small Craft Advisory until 3pm EST this afternoon for MDZ008. Cold Weather Advisory until 11am EST Thursday for MDZ501-509- 510. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11am EST this morning for VAZ025>031-037>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-504>508-526- 527. Cold Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 11am EST Thursday for VAZ025>031-053-054-501-504>508-526-527. Extreme Cold Warning until 11am EST Thursday for VAZ503. WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 11am EST this morning for WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506. Cold Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 11am EST Thursday for WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506. Cold Weather Advisory until 11am EST Thursday for WVZ503. Extreme Cold Warning until 11am EST Thursday for WVZ501-505. Marine Cold Weather Advisory until 11am EST this morning for ANZ530. Cold Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 11am EST Thursday for ANZ530. Small Craft Advisory until 3pm EST this afternoon for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543. Low Water Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ538. |
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