Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast
| Tonight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Fri...E Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sun...E Winds 10 Kt...Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023 Synopsis As low pressure meanders to the south, the chance for showers will remain today over portions of central Virginia and southern Maryland. High pressure is forecast to build in during the second half of the week, raising temperatures back above normal. Near Term - Through Tonight A frontal boundary/convergent zone is currently located along the NC/VA border, with broad influence north and south into those respective states. This is producing abundant cloud cover across central VA, though drier air filtering in from the north is allowing some areas to clear. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s in northern MD along the PA border, with middle 70s for most other locations. Clouds should clear enough in the central Shen Valley and central VA to allow temps to reach at least the low 70s. Easterly flow continues to advect in moist air from the Atlantic. Coupled with weak forcing from the frontal boundary, scattered showers are developing across central/southeast VA. Some of these showers will move through Nelson and Albemarle counties through the afternoon. A stray shower two is possible in far southern MD and around Fredericksburg. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for the rest of today. The surface high near southern New England builds south into the area tonight. Skies are forecast to be clear for the northern half of the area, with stratus likely to build along/south of I-66. Some valley fog is possible in the mountains if skies can clear. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night High pressure to our north builds south over the next couple of days. The lingering frontal boundary/convergent zone could result in some additional showers from early Wednesday morning to Wednesday afternoon in far south MD and the southern Chesapeake. Otherwise, it will be a dry mid week. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday, and low to mid 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows mostly in the 50s. Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday On Friday, an omega blocking pattern is expected to affect the CONUS, with upper ridging over the east/central CONUS slowly retrograding. Surface high pressure overhead Friday degrades as a cold front descends from eastern Canada. Some showers are possible as a result Saturday into Sunday. Guidance has come into better agreement regarding the timing of the frontal passage. bringing some precipitation through the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure builds in behind the front with a cooler and drier air mass. Models diverge significantly from here, differing in how they handle an upper level low diving southward along the trough to the east. There is considerable variation, both model to model and run to run, on the track and strength of the ULL. Whichever solution is realized will determine when the next system affects the area, but for now best estimate is Monday or Tuesday. Above average temperatures are generally expected through the extended, but will depend on cloud cover and shower activity. Temperatures and dewpoints decrease behind the cold front Sunday. A warming trend is expected afterward, but will depend on the progression of the next low pressure system. Marine The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) was dropped north of North Beach early this afternoon as winds have continued to decrease over much of the waters. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts will continue over the southern Chesapeake Bay and lower Tidal Potomac through this evening, then winds are expected to drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) by midnight. High pressure builds into the region through the rest of the week. A brief period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds is possible in the far southern Chesapeake Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, winds are forecast to continue weakening and remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are possible Friday, and SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) may be needed Saturday as a cold front passes over the waters. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ533-534- 537-543. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ541- 542. |
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