Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of The Overnight...W Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms. |
| Today...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds 5 Kt...Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming Se 5 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sun...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft...Building To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 337am EDT Wednesday August 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Mostly dry conditions Wednesday with increasing storm chances Thursday and Friday as a cold front slides through. Quiet weather conditions Saturday with more thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Shower and thunderstorm chances decrease today before returning Thursday and Friday as a cold front crosses. - 2) Dry conditions Saturday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. KEY MESSAGE 1...Shower and thunderstorm chances decrease today before increasing Thursday and Friday as a cold front crosses. Looking at a lull in the thunderstorm activity today with subsidence left behind the caravan of MCSs that traversed the region over the last 24 to 48 hours. Overall flow remains out of the west and northwest which is allowing slightly drier and much more stable air to advect into the region. After a few light showers (mainly Baltimore/east) and little patchy fog this morning, expect a spotty shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly as a result of terrain circulations or the bay/river breeze. Skies will trend partly cloudy to mostly sunny with abundant high cloud cover and even a little wildfire smoke from fires burning over the Pacific Northwest/Canada. The suspended smoke and high clouds will help limit destabilization this afternoon with a focus, mainly south and west of our region. The quiet weather doesn't last too long as we monitor two shortwaves set to track across the region. The first shortwave looks to cross later this evening into Thursday morning (9pm-2am) with another along the actual cold front Friday. Both of these disturbances will allow for an uptick of shower and thunderstorm chances across the region. Timing and coverage remain a bit uncertain yielding some questions in regards to the overall severe threat. Instability and shear do look to increase a bit with MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 j/kg and shear values up to 36 kts tonight into Friday. Machine learning/AI guidance remains mixed on severe probabilities generally ranging between 5-20 percent with a focus across southwestern portions of the forecast area. If severe weather were to occur, damaging winds and isolated instances of flash flooding would be the primary concerns. Outside of thunderstorms, look for seasonable temperatures and increased humidity, especially Thursday and Friday ahead of the frontal boundary. Highs will range from the mid 80s to low 90s (70s mountains) with overnight lows in the mid 60s and low 70s (upper 50s and low 60s mountains). KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry conditions Saturday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. High pressure will build to our north on Saturday. Northerly winds will usher cooler and drier air into the area, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s and lower 60s, and temperatures only making it into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Conditions will remain dry beneath mostly sunny skies. High pressure will progress offshore on Sunday as low pressure and an associated shortwave track through the Great Lakes. Winds will turn out of the south in response, drawing deeper moisture back north into the forecast area. Depending on the track of that system and how much moisture return occurs ahead of it, showers and thunderstorms may be possible for portions of the forecast area on Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms may be possible again on Monday, before drier air works back into the area on Tuesday. Marine Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected today with an isolated shower or t- storm over the waters. Overall no marine hazards today with the risk of Special Marine Warnings Thursday and Friday afternoon as storm chances increase ahead of a crossing cold frontal boundary. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level north to northeasterly winds are expected on Saturday. Winds will shift to out of the south on Sunday, with low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level gusts possible during the afternoon and evening within southerly channeling. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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