Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
5 KNOTS

FRI

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ532 Forecast Issued: 937 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Rest Of Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Tonight...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Scattered Sprinkles.
Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Fri Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.
Sat...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.
Sat Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.
Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400am EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will move offshore today as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. The cold front will cross the region tonight as low pressure develops over northern Florida. A secondary cold front will surge southward from the eastern Great Lakes and northeastern U.S. Friday night into Saturday as high pressure builds to the north and low pressure meanders off the Carolinas. This low will slowly lift northeastward offshore through early next week as high pressure gradually retreats into the Canadian Maritimes.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
High pressure has shifted offshore, and southerly return flow will take over at the surface today. This should push temperatures well into the 40s for most locations, possibly pushing 50 in a few spots, especially where high clouds thin out more. A cold front near Chicago as of early this morning will trek eastward through the day, reaching the Allegheny crest this evening, but with very little moisture to work with. Therefore, only periods of mid/high clouds are expected today.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Saturday Night
Weak isentropic lift ahead of a cold front tonight, coupled with an increase in mid-level PVA and upper jet streak will pull some moisture northward, resulting in spotty light rain mainly over southern Maryland. Sprinkles are possible further north and west given the mid/upper dynamics but low-level moisture is lacking so measurable precipitation is not expected. Lows tonight will be warmer near and east of I-95 with increased clouds, but where clouds are higher and thinner to the west, lows will likely drop into the 20s again. Low pressure will continue to spin off the Carolina coast as high pressure building to the north sends a secondary cold front south Friday into Saturday. Gusty north winds are expected late Friday night into Saturday, but dry conditions are expected as well with a lack of moisture and forcing. Saturday may end up being colder than Wednesday afternoon with the strong high building to the north.

Clouds increase from the south Saturday night as low pressure off the Carolinas attempts to decide its next move.

Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
The long term presents significant uncertainty with a lot of moving parts. At the start, low pressure looks likely to be positioned off the Carolina Coast, attempting to track northeastward. The majority of guidance holds this low off the coast, resulting in our region remaining dry, but a few models continue to track it further inland, which could spell wind and rain. Even if it stays further east, breezy conditions are likely Sunday, potentially extending into Monday.

Uncertainty continues Tuesday into Wednesday as a deepening shortwave dives southeastward across the region. While guidance is in no way consistent regarding the details, the risk remains of another coastal low pressure developing which could also bring wind and rain to the region. However, latest models have trended slower and weaker with any development, making it more likely that it stays mostly dry. Temperatures through the long term may moderate if this occurs, but any coastal storm influence may drag temps down for a longer period of time thanks to clouds and rain.

Marine
Light S winds with weak/dry cold front crossing through tonight. Winds become NW then N Friday into Saturday and strong, possibly approaching gale.

Low pressure off the coast will result in a likelyhood of Small Craft Advisories on Sunday. Low-end Gales can't be completely ruled out. Winds may diminish by Monday as the system tries to push east away from the region.

Climate
With the Arctic airmass starting to moderate, most records that are going to fall have likely already fallen. However, there remains a small risk that a record low could be set early this morning. They are listed below:

Site Low 11/14 DCA 19/1920 BWI 18/1986 IAD 13/1986

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.