Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...S Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Early In The Morning... Then 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Thu...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Fri...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934pm EDT Sunday July 15 2018
Synopsis: High pressure off the Carolina coast will remain over the western Atlantic through Monday. A cold front is poised to pass through the area late Tuesday, with high pressure building into the region in its wake then migrating east of Cape Cod late week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Showers and a few thunderstorms are now over Central Virginia and are slowly weakening/dissipating. This trend should continue for the next few hours. Overcast to mostly cloudy conditions are observed due to mid-to-high level clouds, however some areas over the northern part of the CWA are seeing partly cloudy skies.
Areas that received rainfall earlier this afternoon and evening will likely see fog development tonight; additionally, with strong surface moisture advection, usual valley locations such as around CHO and MRB will like see fog developing after midnight. Overnight temps will be slightly above normal with the higher dewpoints
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
Monday will see increasing chances of convection as additional heat and humidity build back into the region. Convection should be minimal until noontime, when CAM models such as the HREF show mean Surface CAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range in the afternoon. Expecting less cloud cover tomorrow than we had today (Sunday), so afternoon max temps should once again be in the lower 90s, with the mid 90s in the I-95 corridor, which will aid in convective development.
Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west, and ahead of it moisture will continue to increase. The 12Z NAM has precipitable water forecasts greater than 2.25", and the NAEFS has that parameter maxing out from a climatological perspective. Additionally, BUFKT profile soundings from the NAM show the potential for slow moving, training cells with MBE velocity vectors at or below 10 kts. Despite the dry conditions over the past couple of weeks, Flash Flood Watches may need to be considered for Tuesday afternoon prior to the cold frontal passage with the combination of moisture availability, lift from the front, and slow moving meso beta convective elements. The bulk of the storms Tuesday should fall between Noon and 6 PM, as the cold front is forecast to be southeast of Washington DC Metro by mid- evening Tuesday as depicted by the 12Z ECMWF
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
High pressure will build overhead on Wednesday, and remain over the region through Thursday. Expect dry and much less humid conditions to be the result. Max temperatures can also be expected around, to just below seasonal averages, with highs expected to be in the mid 80s across the region. Clear skies and low temperatures in the low to mid 60s can also be expected both Wednesday and Thursday night.
The high pressure looks to move off of the northeast coast Thursday night into Friday, which will shift winds to easterly. Early in the day, rain chances look to remain fairly slim for much of the region, though the humidity may begin to creep up thanks to return flow from the departing surface high. High temperatures should again remain in the mid 80s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s.
Later in the day Friday, things become a little more unclear at this time. The latest runs of both the operational GFS and Euro show two surface lows that could affect the region late Friday through the weekend. The first of which forms over the Great Lakes region, which the GFS shows having more of an impact on our area. The GFS brings the cold front associated with this system towards the region on Saturday, eventually moving through the region Sunday. The associated southerly flow would bring in abundant moisture to the region. Then, there should be plenty of upper level forcing to aid in shower and thunderstorm development, thanks to a very strong cutoff upper low over the northern Great Lakes. The second system is a coastal low that begins forming on Friday along a stalled front off the southeast coast. The system looks to slide north along the east coast through the day on Saturday. This would only add to the moisture in the region. The Euro has a slightly more Quantitative Precipitation Forecast over our region associated with this system, even though both have pretty similar tracks and intensities of this particular system. The key takeaway from this is that the pattern is becoming more active again, and the weekend is looking wet, so Chance POPs will be in the forecast Friday night through Sunday for now.
Small Craft Advisory for more southerly channeling in the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake tonight. Look for more widespread threat of showers and thunderstorms creating marine hazards both Monday and Tuesday afternoon across all coastal waters.
Small Craft Advisories may be necessary Friday in the wake of low pressure moving northeast along the Maine coast. Winds likely diminish a bit Saturday
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Monday for ANZ532>534-537- 540-541-543