Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of This Afternoon...Ne Winds 25 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 4 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt...Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight, Then Increasing To 20 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 30 Kt... Increasing To 35 Kt Late. Waves 4 Ft. Rain.|
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Sun...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
302pm EST Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis: Low pressure along the Carolina coast will move north toward Long Island by tonight. High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley over the weekend. A cold front will likely approach from the Great Lakes early next week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Surface low pressure center is over eastern North Carolina this afternoon with high pressure off the coast of Maine, wedged down the eastern side of the Appalachians. A closed upper level is near Evansville IN. Best frontogenetical forcing lifting north of the area, with precipitation rates lessening. Seeing freezing line lifting north through DC and Baltimore areas, but still firmly below near PA and west of Blue Ridge. Thermals aloft are verifying lower, thus warning criteria is being met for snow in northern counties, and have had to make some adjustments through the day. Also, a few reports of significant icing above 1500 ft elevation have been received from central Virginia. As low to the south lifts north this evening, should continue to see warming aloft, which along with lesser precipitation rates, will result in a gradual changeover to sleet and freezing rain (rain where above freezing) though some northwestern areas may remain mostly snow. Dry slot is also working in from the west, which may result in mostly drizzle/freezing drizzle by evening. Adjustments to advisories/warnings are likely depending on where the freezing line resides.
With heavier precipitation moving out, we will also be canceling the Flood Watch early.
The upper level system will approach tonight and will combine with some wraparound moisture to bring a last burst of rain overnight, which could even change back to snow as temperatures aloft cool. Some additional accumulations to an inch or so will be possible over mainly the mountains, but can't rule out some across areas north/west of DC and Baltimore as well. Temperatures will largely be steady overnight, though some cooling may occur late in the west
Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
Low pressure pushes quickly northeast away from us on Friday, with weak high pressure dominating late Friday through Saturday night. Breezy conditions will persist on Friday, with some upslope snow showers possible with only light accumulations. Drying and warming will the the predominate theme elsewhere, with highs rebounding back towards 50 and lows near freezing. Some high elevation freezing drizzle can't be ruled out Friday night thanks to a bit of low level moisture being lifted on the ridges, but otherwise, do not expect any significant precip
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
Cloudy but dry conditions are forecast for Sunday, with temperatures reaching into the upper 40s to around 50. A cold front will progress through the area on Monday as a vigorous shortwave trough traverses the Great Lakes Region. With the main forcing for ascent associated with the trough displaced well to our north and limited moisture ahead of the cold front, any precipitation is expected to be light and mainly confined to upslope favored areas to the west of the Blue Ridge. High pressure will move back in for Tuesday, resulting in quiet weather conditions and below normal temperatures with highs in the 40s.
Beyond Tuesday, model guidance begins to diverge. The GFS has a mid- level shortwave moving through during the day Wednesday, along with an associated reinforcing cold front at the surface. This solution has very little precipitation associated with the front. The Euro on the other hand maintains high pressure overhead, with quiet weather conditions across the area.
Gusty NE winds between strong high pressure to the north and developing coastal low moving up the East Coast from the Carolinas. Gale conditions are near the mid Bay and will likely expand northward. There will be a lull as the low passes overhead this evening, but are expected to increase again as the low passes late tonight. Expanded the gale warning north a zone, and this may need to be examined further. Gales may need to be extended into Friday morning, although at the moment it looks like winds will subside a bit by daybreak. Solid Small Craft Advisory on NW flow behind departing low expected all day before diminishing in the evening.
Lighter winds expected Saturday as high pressure builds overhead from the Ohio Valley.
Light winds expected on Sunday through Monday morning. Some stronger wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon, but not expected to reach Small Craft Advisory criteria at this time
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Tidal anomalies will continue to increase today in onshore NE flow, with perhaps near minor flooding possible during this evening's tide cycle. Straits point and DC SW Waterfront appear most susceptible to reaching minor flood. NW winds will cause levels to lower Friday into the weekend
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record (through November 13th):
Washington DC area (DCA) 1. 61.33 inches (1889) 2. 60.83 inches (2003) 3. 60.09 inches (1878) 4. 58.17 inches (1886) 5. 57.54 inches (1948) 6. 57.38 inches (2018) 7. 54.29 inches (1937) Weather records for the Washington DC area have been kept at what is now Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.
Baltimore MD area (BWI) 1. 62.66 inches (2003) 2. 62.35 inches (1889) 3. 61.68 inches (2018) 4. 58.98 inches (1979) Weather records for the Baltimore MD area have been kept at what is now Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI) since 1950. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.
Dulles VA area (IAD) 1. 65.67 inches (2003) 2. 59.05 inches (1972) 3. 58.09 inches (1996) 4. 57.65 inches (2018) 5. 55.43 inches (1979) Weather records have been kept at what is now Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) since 1960.
NOTE: All climate data are considered preliminary until reviewed by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for DCZ001. MD...Winter Storm Warning until 4am EST Friday for MDZ003>006- 501>503-505. Winter Weather Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for MDZ011-504-506>508.
Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for MDZ011-013-014- 016>018-504-506-508. VA...Winter Storm Warning until 1am EST Friday for VAZ025-503-504- 508. Winter Storm Warning until 4am EST Friday for VAZ026>031- 505>507. Winter Weather Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for VAZ038>040-050>053-501-502. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VAZ036- 037.
Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for VAZ052>057. WV...Winter Storm Warning until 4am EST Friday for WVZ050>053-055- 501>506.
Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 6pm EST Friday for ANZ531>534-537-539>543.
Gale Warning until 6am EST Friday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Friday for ANZ530-535-536- 538.
Gale Warning from 6pm this evening to 6am EST Friday for ANZ531-539.