Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of This Afternoon...S Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Widespread Showers And Tstms.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sat...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night.|
|Mon...E Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
246pm EDT Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis: A cold front will approach from the north through this evening before passing through overnight into early Friday. High pressure will briefly build overhead later Friday through Friday night before moving offshore Saturday. A weak cold front will stall out nearby for Sunday and Monday, and a Bermuda high may cause hot and humid conditions during the middle portion of next week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8pm this evening for much of northern Virginia, central and southern Maryland, and eastern West Virginia.
A south to southwest flow has caused a return of noticeably warmer and more humid conditions this afternoon. Latest mesoanalysis shows around 1000-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE developing ahead of a line of showers and thunderstorms. The line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to pass through the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas between 3 and 5 pm this afternoon, and then across southern Maryland into central Virginia later this afternoon into early this evening. Deep layer shear remains quite strong (around 45-50 knots ahead of the line). The combination of the instability and strong shear suggests that severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. The best chance for severe storms are most likely near and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains across northern Virginia into the Virginia Piedmont as well as the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas/southern Maryland. These areas are east of a pressure trough, and somewhat higher dewpoints has allowed for the higher instability. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out due to the strong shear as well.
The cold front will drop into the area from the north this evening before slowly moving through our area into central Virginia overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal passage later this evening, and with strong shear in place there is a threat for severe thunderstorms. However, confidence is lower due to the loss of daytime heating. Convection should dissipate overnight as the front drops farther south and drier air begins to filter in from the northwest.
Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
The cold front will continue to drop south Friday and weak high pressure will build overhead later Friday into Friday night. Warm conditions will continue, but it will turn out breezy and noticeably less humid behind the boundary.
High pressure will move offshore Saturday and a return southerly flow will usher in a return of more humid conditions. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and evening, especially west of the Blue Ridge Mountains where instability will be higher and there will be a pressure trough that acts as of lifting mechanism.
Warm and humid conditions are expected Saturday night due to a southwest flow around high pressure offshore.
Long Term - Sunday Through Thursday
Sunday will be a very warm and potentially unstable day, with a cold front dropping toward the region. Timing will be key, as there is the potential for another active afternoon/evening if the front drops south of the MD/PA border overlapping with any daytime heating.
Present indications suggest that the boundary could sag south of the area Monday, but the ridge will intensify Tuesday- Wednesday. If that holds true, the middle of next week will be very warm if not hot. However, anticipate model fluctuations on these details. This would also impact thunderstorm chances, which at this point don't look very high.
A line of showers and thunderstorms will likely pass through the waters late this afternoon into early this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are possible, and a waterspout cannot be ruled out. Storms are most likely to pass through between 4pm and 7pm this afternoon and early evening.
Another round of showers and gusty thunderstorms are possible later this evening, but confidence is lower due to the loss of daytime heating.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters until midnight. There may be a brief lull in the stronger gradient winds overnight before winds increase behind a cold front Friday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters Friday into Friday evening. High pressure will briefly build overhead Friday night before moving offshore Saturday.
Thunderstorms may be affecting the waters late Sunday, with northwest flow conducive for Small Craft Advisories behind the front, lingering into Monday
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Elevated water levels are expected through this evening due to a southerly flow, but confidence is too low for an advisory due to a westerly component to the wind and the fact that the next high tide will be the lower of the two this evening.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 7am to 8pm EDT Friday for ANZ530>543