Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Numerous Showers And Scattered Tstms. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Numerous Showers And Scattered Tstms. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue...W Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
321pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022
A cold front will pass through the area tonight. High pressure will build toward the area from the north and west Monday through Wednesday while an upper-level trough builds overhead. The high will build north of the area late in the week.
Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
18Z IAD sounding shows a near-surface inversion which likely remained in place as morning cloud cover prevented heating. That, along with modest instability ahead of the ongoing storms, has mainly resulted in an isolated severe weather threat. Activity moving out of western Virginia will encounter surface temperatures in the lower 80s across to southern Maryland, but with still relatively meager instability (500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE). Thus while this may be the next most favorable area for severe weather, the copious shear may tend to dismantle the weaker updrafts.
It does appear the current disjointed band of convection will be the main event, and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that is in effect until 7pm may be able to be cancelled early. However, additional scattered showers and isolated storms will remain possible until the actual cold front crosses this evening.
Damaging winds will be the main threat in fast moving linear segments or potential splitting supercells (long straight hodographs). Quarter size or larger hail could also occur due to the shear, relatively steep mid level lapse rates, and relatively cold temperatures aloft. A tornado isn't out of the question given sufficient 0-1km shear...but think this is a lesser threat with a lack of backed surface flow and relatively high LCLs...so the threat would be brief with any favorably oriented line segments or supercells.
Skies will clear tonight for most areas. Upslope flow and a mid level trough axis will result in some clouds and perhaps a few showers along and west of the Allegheny Front. Lows will mostly be in the 50s.
Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through Tuesday Night
Low pressure will pivot around eastern Canada while a large upper level trough develops across the eastern US Monday and Tuesday. Most of the time will be dry with scattered diurnal cumulus. A few showers may try to sneak across the PA border or cross the Appalachians, especially as a secondary front crosses Tuesday however. Cold advection will continue through the period, with temperatures below normal Monday night through Tuesday night.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
UL troughing will persist across the northeast US through Wednesday. H5 heigheights rise locally Wednesday afternoon/night as the trough lifts northeast and the ridge in the Atlantic builds toward the SE- US. Northwest flow will prevail Wednesday ahead of an area of high pressure. Given the cool airmass aloft with the UL trough, Wednesday may end up with a broken deck of clouds much of the day. Cannot rule out a shower or some drizzle in the mountains where saturation is more likely. As the area of high pressure builds overhead Thursday into early Friday, dry conditions are expected. With the high almost overhead, will have to monitor the potential for frost Friday morning, but contingent upon the speed of an area of low pressure that may impact the area Friday into the weekend. Confidence remains low on timing and any impacts from this area of low pressure, which is now Ian. For information about Ian, please refer to the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov.
Below normal temps likely for the start of the long term with temps moderating toward average next weekend. Highs toward the end of the week will be in the 60s to low 70s for most, with cooler conditions in the mountains.
Sporadic southwesterly gusts to 20kt occurring this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are moving toward the waters as well. Strong winds and hail may require some special marine warnings, and a severe thunderstorm watch is also in effect until 7 PM.
Winds will shift out of the west behind a cold front this evening. There may be a lull for a time, but otherwise SCA conditions will continue into Monday, and an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect until 6pm Monday. There may be a break in the winds for some places Monday night, but additional SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) may be needed Tuesday.
As high pressure builds toward the waters Wednesday into Thu, gradient winds near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria are possible.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Anomalies remain around a half to three quarters of a foot above normal. These anomalies will likely hold through tonight, causing water levels to approach minor flood thresholds around times of high tide for sensitive areas. However, current trends suggest water levels will likely remain below minor flood thresholds. Therefore no advisories have been issued at this time but will continue to monitor. Westerly winds will help anomalies lower Monday.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Monday for ANZ530>543.