Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers This Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
406am EST Sat Jan 16 2021
Low pressure over the Delmarva will strengthen as it moves into New England this afternoon. High pressure will then build south of the region through the first half of next week before another potential storm system approaches the latter half of next week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Areas of dense fog this morning due to clear skies, light winds, and residual moisture. Then, mid-level clouds will increase after daybreak as upper low approaches from the NW. Steepening lapse rates and cyclonic vorticity will result in isold-scattered rain/snow showers east of the Blue Ridge and snow showers in the mtns. Environment this afternoon will be favorable for snow squalls in the mountains due to low-level CAPE/steep low-level lapse rates which may result in localized snow amounts near advisory criteria, but issued Winter Wx Advisory starting tonight to cover the more prolonged period of snow showers tonight in strengthening NW flow.
Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
Shortwave ridging builds overhead Sunday afternoon ahead of next upper low with snow showers diminishing over the mtns. A new round of enhanced mountain snow shower activity seems likely late Sunday night through Monday morning with accums possibly reaching advisory criteria.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
Generally expecting zonal flow aloft on Tuesday, with high pressure building in to our south. This will result in generally dry conditions across the area, with temperatures near seasonal averages. However, will see some continued upslope snow showers along/west of the Allegheny Front.
Meanwhile, an upper shortwave will be swinging through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Weak surface low pressure will accompany this upper low, sliding by to our north. This will push a cold front through the region into Wednesday morning, knocking high temperatures down a few degrees on Inauguration Day. Dry conditions are expected for the entire day. In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, though, gusty northwesterly winds are expected in the 20-30 mph range. This will likely keep wind chills in the mid 30s or less for the entire day.
For Thursday, there are two pieces of energy at play. First is a fairly strong surface low, dragging a cold front through the region. Second is a weak piece of shortwave energy moving out of the central/southern Plains, with a weak surface inflection developing along the aforementioned frontal boundary. This will bring some rain and/or snow to the region. This will be a timing dependent system though, as temperatures will quickly rise above freezing after sunrise Thursday. So, if the precipitation arrives after that, mostly rain instead. Will have to keep a watch on this one, because timing details at six days out are still a bit uncertain.
In the wake of this system, Friday looks dry again outside of the Allegheny Mountains, where upslope snow is expected once again. The cold front that pushes through doesn't appear to pack much of a punch when it comes to temperatures, so highs still expected to be in the mid 40s or so.
NW winds are expected to strengthen tonight 20-25 kt and begin to diminish Sunday afternoon. Extended SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through 18Z Sun. Winds may linger above Sunday afternoon, but confidence low since winds should be on the downward trend by then.
Winds should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria on Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front that pushes through Tuesday night, winds will pick up out of the northwest into Wednesday morning. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed sometime Wednesday morning, continuing through the rest of the day.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Water levels will remain elevated through today as winds remain generally light, but should begin to drop tonight as NW winds strengthen. Minor coastal flooding is still possible at Annapolis and Straits Point through this afternoon.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 8am EST this morning for MDZ502. Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Sunday for MDZ001. VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8am EST this morning for VAZ025>027- 029-036>040-050-051-501-502-504. WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 8am EST this morning for WVZ050-055- 502-504-506. Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Sunday for WVZ501-505.
Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to noon EST Sunday for ANZ530>543.