Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. Light Freezing Spray. |
| Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Diminishing To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Snow. Light Freezing Spray. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 Ft. Snow And Sleet. Freezing Rain Through The Night, Then A Chance Of Snow After Midnight. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 927pm EST Wednesday Jan 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High confidence remains for a significant winter storm to impact the region Saturday evening through Sunday night. Continuing to monitor the latest gudiance given a slight northern and western push leading to the potential for some mixing across portions of the region. Now is the time for the public to make preparations given the significant impacts from this storm as well as prolonged cold to follow. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) High confidence for a major winter storm across the region late Saturday into Sunday. This includes plowable snow with some mixing across southern MD and central VA. - 2) Dangerously cold wind chills and near record breaking temperatures will remain likely this weekend through early next week. - 3) Accumulating snow over portions of the Allegehnies through Thursday morning. KEY MESSAGE 1...High confidence for a major winter storm across the region late Saturday into Sunday. This includes plowable snow with some mixing across southern MD and central VA. Not too much change in regards to timing based upon the latest 18z/00z deterministic guidance with late Saturday evening through Sunday night as the prime period for significant winter weather impacts. NOAA AOML recon has been putting dropsondes in the storm system today which is still back west of Baja California. These dropsondes combined with upper air/other aircraft observations should give the models a few more pieces to the puzzle in regards to what will happen this weekend. The overall synoptic pattern remains rather complicated, particularly as a number of the features have not moved into the denser North American data network yet. As is common with Mid- Atlantic snowstorms, both the northern and southern streams need to be active with some interaction between the two. Looking more closely at this, the northern stream remains very amplified as cyclonic flow draws polar air southward. At the same time, the mentioned upper low just offshore of southern California should gradually accelerate eastward across Baja California early in the weekend. The height pattern evident in the guidance suggests a decent amount of confluence downstream across the central/eastern U.S. Ample lift over this region will occur atop the Arctic air mass that plunges southward in time. Meanwhile, ample low-level moisture advection takes place which will tap into the ample energetics of this setup. As the Arctic high settles over New England, the familiar cold air damming isobaric pattern sets up along the Eastern Seaboard. This will certainly ensure no chance of plain rain in this frigid setup. One thing to note regarding this evening's guidance is that there has been a northern and western push which favors wintry mix across southern MD and central VA. The uncertainty remains in how far north this mix line evolves given the track of system whether it's further to west or south of the region. The ECMWF, ICON, GFS, GEM, GEFS, and EPS illustrate this in different variations with a the highest probabilities of ice (i.e., sleet/some freezing rain) in the aformentioned areas above. Each of these solutions do have a variation of sleet mixing with snow and making it as far north as the I-95 corridor as the system kicks out Sunday afternoon. The probability of 0.01" of ice remains between 10 to 20 percent along I-66/US-50 and into I-95 north and east of DC. These values jump up to 25 to 35 percent across southern MD and central VA where slightly warmer air aloft/dry slotting may win out. The probabilities for significant/impactful snow have not changed a whole lot with the entire area seeing 65 to 85 percent probs of 6 to 8 inches snow. These probabilities drop down to 35 to 60 percent for a foot of snow, especially in the climo favored zones along and west of I-95 as well as down into northern Shenandoah Valley/Allegheny Mountains. This signal has trended upward in the last few runs, especially on the ECMWF/ECS as well as GEPS compared to the GEFS which focus this axis a bit further south. Of course these numbers will go up or down based upon any mixing that may occur. Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15:1 with this system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 10:1 and perhaps slightly lower Sunday morning into the afternoon as some mixing occurs. The pending dry slot could also play into this as well. Snow should be fluffy in nature, particularly within the initial warm advection conveyor belt. Expect some crustiness of this snowpack given any mixing that may occur as the system kicks out during the second half of Sunday. Now is the time for the public to make preparations for the storm. This includes getting any necessary groceries or medicines that you may not be able to access this weekend into early next week due to any potential closure. Have an emergency kit in the car including extra batteries, a flashlight, and blanket just in case you get stranded. Make sure to refuel your car before the storm hits. Check on elederly friends/neighbors and don't forget about your pets during this prolonged cold period. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold wind chills and near record breaking temperatures will remain likely this weekend through early next week. 1036-1044mb Arctic high pressure will unleash true Arctic air across the region this weekend into early next week. 850 mb temperatures Friday night into Saturday will drop to as low as -20 degrees C. This will yield widespread single digit lows Friday night with highs Saturday (east of the mountains) struggling to get out of the mid teens and low 20s. Wind chill factors won't be much better during this time with widespread values near or below zero Friday and Saturday nights. Temperatures increase slightly Sunday with highs in the upper teens and low 20s. Similar values can be expected Monday and Tuesday as well. Overnight lows will remain in the single digits to low teens with subzero values over the mountains. Of course daytime highs/lows will be subject to change given the abundant snowpack on the ground. Values could trend lower, especially during the nighttime and early morning periods as winds subside on certain nigheights heading into the new workweek. Several records may be broken within this frigid stretch (see Climate section below). Wind chills Sunday night into Monday, and Monday night into Tuesday will remain in the single digits to below zero areawide. The lowest wind chills right now look to occur behind the Arctic front Friday night into Saturday, and again Monday night into Tuesday as a reinforcing weak wave of energy passes through. With prolonged cold temperatures, expect an increase in water main issues and road clearing operations. Hypothermia and frostbite will become an issue as well, especially for those spending extended time outdoors. For those using alternative sources of heat i.e.,space heaters, fireplaces, and stoves; never leave unattended. Keep areas well ventilated to avoid fires. KEY MESSAGE 3...Accumulating snow over portions of the Alleghenies through Thursday morning. A warm front will lift north of the forecast area tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front pushes across the forecast area overnight and into Thursday morning, yielding wintry precipitation along the Alleghenies. Upslope snow showers will continue as freezing rain begins mixing in this evening. A wintry mix persist through early Thursday morning with total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations around a light glaze expected. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM Thursday. Further east, dry conditions are expected to continue as overnight low temperatures hover right at or above freezing. Temperatures continue to warm with highs in the 40s to low 50s (30s in the Alleghenies) on Thursday. Additionally, in the wake of multiple frontal passages, wind gusts of 25-35 mph are possible along the ridges. Locally higher wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible. Winds decrease on Thursday. Marine A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 5am Thursday morning for southerly winds blowing 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots expected. Winds shift to westerly Thursday morning and are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through Friday morning. The exception will be in the northern portions of the Chesapeake Bay where winds briefly gust 15 to 20 knots Thursday afternoon. Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Northwest winds gust 20 to 25 knots over the waters beginning Friday afternoon and persist through the overnight. Small Craft Advisories are likely during this time, with cold temperatures leading to possible Freezing Spray. Gale conditions are possible across the waters Friday night. Freezing Spray is also possible Friday night into Monday. Tides / Coastal Flooding Blowout tides are expected Fri night through the first half of next week. Water levels are expected to bottom out at 1 to 2 ft below MLLW Saturday morning and may extend into Monday as NW winds strengthen. Climate Here are some daily temperature records during the January 24-27, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***SATURDAY, JANUARY 24TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 18F (1948) 3F (1963) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 21F (2014)! -2F (1987) Baltimore (BWI) 17F (1948) 1F (1963) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 21F (2014)+! 4F (1963) Martinsburg (MRB) 13F (1948) -4F (1963)+ Charlottesville (CHO) 23F (2014)+! 5F (1963) Annapolis (NAK) 18F (1948)! 2F (1963) Hagerstown (HGR) 12F (1936) -5F (1963)+ ***SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 16F (1897) 3F (1935) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 18F (1987) -5F (1987) Baltimore (BWI) 17F (1987)+ 0F (1897) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 20F (2004)+ 8F (1961) Martinsburg (MRB) 16F (2004)+ -4F (1936) Charlottesville (CHO) 19F (2004)+ 5F (1948) Annapolis (NAK) 19F (1961) 3F (1987) Hagerstown (HGR) 15F (2004) -15F (1935) ***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 17F (1961) 5F (1948)+ Washington-Dulles (IAD) 21F (1966) 3F (1987) Baltimore (BWI) 17F (1961) 2F (1961) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 19F (1961) 13F (1982)! Martinsburg (MRB) 12F (1961) -10F (1948) Charlottesville (CHO) 13F (1961) 9F (1922)! Annapolis (NAK) 18F (1961) 5F (1905) Hagerstown (HGR) 15F (1961) -12F (1948) ***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 22F (1961) 6F (1935) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 22F (2003) -9F (1987) Baltimore (BWI) 21F (1918) 3F (1987) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 22F (1961) 13F (1982)! Martinsburg (MRB) 17F (1971) -6F (1987) Charlottesville (CHO) 18F (1961) 0F (1982) Annapolis (NAK) 22F (1961) 5F (1927) Hagerstown (HGR) 17F (1907) -10F (1987) NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 5am EST Thursday for MDZ008. Winter Weather Advisory until 7am EST Thursday for MDZ509. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 5am EST Thursday for ANZ530>543.. |
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