Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast


THIS AFTERNOON

S
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
10
KNOTS

SAT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SAT NIGHT

S
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ532 Forecast Issued: 140 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
This Afternoon...S Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Tonight...S Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Sat Night...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Sun...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
330pm EDT Fri May 20 2022

Synopsis
Warm front will lift northward through the area later today. High pressure will build in and remain off the southeast coast through the weekend. Strong cold front will cross the region later in the day on Sunday. This will likely stall south through the early part of next week before moving northward.

Near Term - Until 6am Saturday Morning
The earlier MCV has pushed further north and east of the CWA. Earlier SVR/TOR warnings have since expired for the area. The warm front has continued to move northward through the late morning and early afternoon hours. This, encompassed with the MCV may spawn a few showers across the northern areas over the next 1-2 hours. Beyond that, conditions will likely suppress and allow for just a few showers later this afternoon for areas mainly north of I-66. Forecast highs for today have been under-performing across the cloudier areas with locations south of I-66 hovering near the expected highs. For tonight, mostly clear skies as the system to the north continues to move further east with overnight lows only dropping down into the upper 60s to 70s areawide.

Short Term - 6am Saturday Morning Through Sunday Night
The weekend looks to be the hottest it has been since September of last year. Temperatures will likely be nearing records, especially Saturday afternoon. These early season heat blasts can sometimes be even more problematic than the middle of the summer with a quick change from seasonable temperatures to hot weather, especially with more sensitive populations. Highs will likely shoot up into the mid to even upper 90s Saturday afternoon. With a good bit of midlevel dry air in place, dew points will likely mix into the low 60s. With this in mind, heat indices look to remain just below hazard criteria for any headlines to be issued for now. Will monitor the latest guidance to potentially make any further adjustments to the highs for Saturday. With a building high pressure off to the southeast, most areas should remain dry with subsidence nearby. Latest CAMs display a few showers and even rumble of thunder across the mountain areas later Saturday afternoon. Instability parameters are certainly present for the afternoon hours so if any storms do fire off out west during this time then there may be a conditional severe threat should this solution come to fruition.

By Sunday, a cold front will be approaching the area from the NW. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be present throughout the afternoon and evening hours. A lee trough will develop ahead of this front late morning into the early afternoon. Instability will likely remain elevated through the day but shear looks to be rather weak. Do think there is an isolated chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms to form along and just ahead of the cold front. A Marginal Risk is in place from Storm Prediction Center for areas east of the Allegheny Front. There is a non-zero risk for flooding as the cold front starts to slow down as it continues further south later Sunday. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than Saturday on Sunday but will continue to be hot and will be more humid with a warm, moist airmass ahead of the cold front. This front will slowly move southward through Sunday night and continue to linger into Monday.

Long Term - Monday Through Friday
Overall good agreement amongst the the latest guidance suite. General jet stream pattern will be orientated in a SW to NE orientation for the beginning of next week. Weak shortwave energy residing near the Gulf states will gradually lift northward through the middle of next week. However, the overall pattern will shift to where strong upper level ridging will become the dominate feature by the middle of next week. As a result, the shortwave will slowly traverse along the ridge axis as a weak, disorganized low tracks northward along the Appalachians. Thus while Monday looks to remain mostly dry, cloud cover is likely to increase as chances for showers increase through Tuesday morning. As the ridge crests off the Eastern seaboard, the shortwave will exit off to the east as well. However chances for showers will remain elevated with a lingering stationary front nearby.

Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave maxima will track eastward towards the second half of next week. This will drag a stronger cold front eastward across the region, where more widespread showers and storms can occur. General temperature trend for next week looks to remain near seasonable levels, with slightly above normal chances for precip.

Marine
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds for this afternoon into tonight, mainly for the southern waters where southerly channeling will increase the winds a bit through late tonight. Light southerly winds are expected Saturday as high pressure influences the region. By late Saturday night and into Sunday, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds may start up ahead of a cold front expected to impact the area on Sunday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon, SMW's are possible for the end of the weekend.

Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely on Monday. However chances for additional instances for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions increase Tuesday into Wednesday.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Anomalies may increase today, although only action stage is most likely at the more sensitive tidal locations.

Climate
Hot weather is forecast today through Sunday with temperatures likely 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Below is a list of temperature records Friday through Sunday (May 20th-22nd).

-------------------------------------------------------------- Record Daily High Temperatures for May 20th -------------------------------------------------------------- Washington DC area........96 F (set in 1996).................. Baltimore MD area.........95 F (set in 1962).................. Sterling/Dulles VA area...93 F (set in 1996).................. Martinsburg WV area.......97 F (set in 1911).................. --------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------- Record Daily Warm Low Temperatures for May 21st -------------------------------------------------------------- Washington DC area........71 F (set in 1996).................. Baltimore MD area.........71 F (set in 1934).................. Sterling/Dulles VA area...67 F (set in 2013 and 1996)......... Martinsburg WV area.......65 F (set in 1996 and 1911)......... --------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------- Record Daily High Temperatures for May 21st -------------------------------------------------------------- Washington DC area........95 F (set in 1934).................. Baltimore MD area.........96 F (set in 1934).................. Sterling/Dulles VA area...92 F (set in 1996).................. Martinsburg WV area......100 F (set in 1934).................. --------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------- Record Daily Warm Low Temperatures for May 22nd -------------------------------------------------------------- Washington DC area........71 F (set in 1959).................. Baltimore MD area.........71 F (set in 1903).................. Sterling/Dulles VA area...67 F (set in 1975).................. Martinsburg WV area.......68 F (set in 1959).................. --------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------- Record Daily High Temperatures for May 22nd -------------------------------------------------------------- Washington DC area........96 F (set in 1941).................. Baltimore MD area.........98 F (set in 1941).................. Sterling/Dulles VA area...89 F (set in 2021).................. Martinsburg WV area.......98 F (set in 1934).................. --------------------------------------------------------------

Temperature records for the Washington DC area have been recorded at what is now Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA) since 1941. The official weather record consists of that data back to 1945, and observations taken in downtown Washington from 1872 through 1944.

Temperature records for the Baltimore MD area have been recorded at what is now Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (KBWI) since 1950. The official weather record consists of that data, and observations taken in downtown Baltimore from 1872 through 1949.

Temperature records for the Sterling/Dulles VA area have been recorded at what is now Washington Dulles International Airport (KIAD) since 1960. The official weather record consists solely of that data.

Temperature records for the Martinsburg WV area have been recorded at what is now Eastern West Virginia Regional Airport (KMRB) since 1938. The official weather record consists of that data back to 1944, and observations taken in downtown Martinsburg from 1891 through 1943.

All climate data is considered preliminary until reviewed and certified by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Saturday for ANZ533-534- 537-543.