Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Until Early Morning. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Wed...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1002am EDT Monday Jun 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cloud forecast is being increased as widespread stratocumulus moves in on easterly flow, although it should scatter out by mid afternoon. Highlighted brief gusty winds this morning on the tidal waters. Otherwise minimal changes are needed. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) High pressure brings mainly dry weather and near normal temperatures early this week before drifting offshore. - 2) Hot, humid conditions and scattered thunderstorms return late this week. KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure brings mainly dry weather and near normal temperatures early this week before drifting offshore. Early morning analysis shows the weekend's cold front steadily pushing southward through the Carolinas as strong late season high pressure builds into northern New England. This area of high pressure will drop southward to a position along the Mid- Atlantic coast through Tuesday. Despite onshore flow around the high, the source region is dry which will keep humidity modest through tonight; dew points actually drop through the 50s as temperatures hover near to slightly below normal. As the high drifts offshore Tuesday, heigheights aloft will begin to fall a bit especially further west. This coupled with increasing heat, humidity, and orographic effects may result in showers and thunderstorms popping up near and west of the Appalachians by Tuesday afternoon. Most of this activity should weaken with the loss of daytime heating as it presses eastward toward I-81, but the 00Z (and 06Z to an extent) NAM has enough warm/moist advection associated with an approaching warm front to keep activity going as it moves east through the night across the rest of the area. This is an outlier solution at this time, but can't be completely discarded given the presence of the approaching warm front. Higher chances for showers and thunderstorms spread across the area Wednesday as the high drifts further away and a warm front lifts across. The increase in heat and humidity could lead to locally stronger storms especially given the presence of the warm front. We will have to watch for any glancing effects from upstream waves emanating from convection over the middle of the country as well, as this could result in more numerous and potentially slightly more organized/stronger storms. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot, humid conditions and scattered thunderstorms return late this week. Surface high over the southwest Atlantic continues to drift well offshore through the end of this week. In its wake, low-level southwesterly flow advects tropical moisture into the Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, mid-level ridging builds over the region Thursday and Friday, though some guidance does show a fast-moving shortwave traversing the ridge axis. Thursday and Friday are likely to bring true summer conditions as highs reach the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in the lower 100s possible. Even though shear is lacking, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop each afternoon, influenced by terrain circulations, lee troughs, and likely bay/river breezes. There will be ample instability present, and if that subtle shortwave does move through at the right time, it could provide additional forcing for more organized convection. A cold front then sweeps through the area Friday night. The higher CAPE, low shear environment could support strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, which is hinted at by most of the AI guidance (CSU, NSSL, Google DeepMind). Uncertainty is mostly due to timing of convection and passage of any upper-level features. Given this week is the start of many summer activities and celebrations across the area, it will be important to remain weather aware. Saturday brings a short reprieve from the very hot temps and thunderstorms as a quick moving surface high traverses the area. A large upper trough and cold front approach from the OH Valley Sunday into early next week, bringing showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast. Marine With the onset of mixing, a few E to NE gusts to 20 kt are possible through late morning. After a bit of a break, onshore flow increases this afternoon into this evening, with gusts of 15-25 knots anticipated. Winds become a bit lighter and more southeasterly later this evening into Tuesday morning, before a prolonged period of southerly flow/channeling brings more gusty conditions Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Dry weather is expected through Tuesday night, then shower and thunderstorm chances increase readily Wednesday as a warm front lifts across the waters. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds are expected through the end of this week. Scattered thunderstorms develop each afternoon to evening Thursday and Friday, which will pose a threat to mariners from gusty winds and lightning. Tides / Coastal Flooding A somewhat prolonged period of southerly flow will result in rising tidal anomalies Tuesday through Wednesday night. The typically more aggressive guidance (CBOFS, SFAS) shows potential for solid minor to perhaps near moderate flooding at Annapolis by mid week, with minor flooding possible along other vulnerable shoreline areas (Havre de Grace and Alexandria, for example). I believe the higher guidance may be warranted in this case given onshore flow through tonight pushing water into the Chesapeake Bay, then southerly flow holding it/pushing it northward into our neck of the woods through mid week. Despite the favorable flow pattern, relatively lower astronomical tides due to a third quarter/waning gibbous today and relatively modest wind magnitudes should keep the threat for moderate tidal flooding low. Therefore, no watches (or HWO mention) have been introduced on this forecast cycle. Climate Temperatures are expected to soar to as much as 15 to 20 degrees above normal Thursday and Friday. This approaches or exceeds daily record values at some sites. Below is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures for June 11th and 12th (Thursday and Friday). ================================================================= June 11th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows ================================================================= Site Record High Record Warm Low DCA 101 F (set in 1911) 74 F (set in 2020 +6 others) IAD 95 F (set in 2016) 72 F (set in 2005) BWI 99 F (set in 1911) 75 F (set in 1914) DMH 100 F (set in 1984) 79 F (set in 1984) NAK 96 F (set in 2000) 79 F (set in 1973) HGR 97 F (set in 1911) 73 F (set in 2005) MRB 101 F (set in 1911) 71 F (set in 1927 and 1922) CHO 99 F (set in 1911) 76 F (set in 2020) ================================================================= June 12th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows ================================================================= Site Record High Record Warm Low DCA 95 F (set in 2017 +6 others) 77 F (set in 2015) IAD 96 F (set in 1986) 72 F (set in 1986) BWI 96 F (set in 1986 and 1914) 77 F (set in 1947) DMH 96 F (set in 2025 +2 others) 77 F (set in 2017 and 2015) NAK 98 F (set in 1914) 77 F (set in 2000 and 1973) HGR 92 F (set in 2017 +5 others) 71 F (set in 2010 +5 others) MRB 97 F (set in 1938 and 1933) 73 F (set in 1914) CHO 98 F (set in 1914) 72 F (set in 1947 +2 others) NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>533-535>542. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ534-543. |
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