Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TUE

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

S
WINDS
10
KNOTS

WED

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ532 Forecast Issued: 734 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Tonight...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Scattered Showers And Tstms This Evening With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Tue Night...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming S. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
916pm EDT Monday July 15 2024

Synopsis
Hot and humid conditions will persist through midweek as a surface trough lingers east of I-95 with high pressure remains offshore. The surface trough will be overtaken by a cold front late Wednesday into Thursday. This front will then stall to the south through the end of the week and into the weekend.

Near Term - Through Tuesday
EVENING The bulk of shower activity has ended across the area, with just a few isolated showers remaining. These likely fizzle out in the next hour or so, leaving a quiet night ahead. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s to most, a bit cooler in the mountains and a bit warmer in the metros and along the waters.

PREVIOUSLLOWS... Another oppressively hot afternoon. Heat headlines remain in effect through the evening. Stay hydrated and well-rested.

In terms of convection this afternoon, model guidance continues to show an axis of showers and thunderstorms across the CWA (County Warning Area) from approximately the Shenandoah Valley towards the northern DC metro and points northwest later this afternoon into this evening. There is a remnant MCV (Mesoscale Cyclonic Vortice, a low-pressure center in a group of thunderstorms, that pulls winds into a circling pattern, or vortex) well north of the area near Lake Erie, but there is an area of forcing attached south of the MCV from a line along I-79 in western PA down to Morgantown, WV. This is visible on satellite imagery as of 18Z. As this moves east and interacts with a lee surface trough and potential bay breeze, the potential for convection increases. Now there is a subtle inversion present on ACARS data as of 18Z around 500 mb with weak westerly flow that is inhibiting a lot of the cu for the time being. Some of these storms may become strong to severe given the available convective parameters. Most likely hazards will be damaging winds. Most convection should depart to the east a little after sunset, with some residual showers sticking around into the overnight hours. Overnight lows will drop down into the upper 60s to low 70s for most with mid to upper 70s closer to the waters.

Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night
Have upgraded the Excessive Heat Watch for Tuesday into an
Excessive Heat Warning...r the DC and Baltimore metros along with the northern portions of the Shenandoah Valley into the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. Elsewhere, heat advisories are in effect for tomorrow afternoon and evening. Most models have Tds a degree or two higher tomorrow, so heat indices right around local criteria are expected. This coupled with another day of heat and oppressive humidity will likely result in continued heat related illnesses.

Additionally, showers and thunderstorms return thanks in part to remnant MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) activity and a local surface trough. Still more uncertainty as to where coverage may be greatest but have tried to highlight the northern two-thirds of the CWA as the best chance for convective initiation. Better forcing exists further north of the area but should this change, strong to severe thunderstorms may become more common across our northern half of the forecast area. This is where Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the northern third of the area to a Level 2 out of 5 (Slight Risk). Precipitation wanes by the mid to late evening hours with lows dropping down into the 70s for most areas aside from upper 60s in the mountains.

Another hot day is expected on Wednesday, although heat index values may be a few degrees cooler compared to previous days. Heat Advisories are still possible, especially east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and the climo areas along the waterways. A cold front will approach the area from the Ohio Valley, leading to an increase in shower and thunderstorm potential across the area. There are some timing discrepancies with the front that may inhibit strong to severe storms with post-peak heating initiation. The front is expected to slowly move south where it will eventually stall past Wednesday night. Lows are expected to be in the 60s to low 70s for most areas with increasing northwest flow.

Long Term - Thursday Through Monday
The primary features of interest will be a pair of stagnant upper ridges across the Intermountain West and western Atlantic, as well as a prominent trough over eastern Canada down into much of the eastern third of the country. With the area of lower heigheights anchoring a good chunk of the northeastern U.S., there will finally be a period of near to even below average temperatures.

Looking down to the surface, a cold front responsible for the pattern shift will drop south and east of the local area on Thursday before settling into the Carolinas by Friday. Some increase in heigheights are expected by the weekend as the Atlantic ridge shifts westward. This leads to a weakening of the southern extension of troughing across the northeastern U.S. Overall, this front will provide a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms as it pushes southward on Thursday. This would particularly focus over areas south of I-66/U.S. 50 before a mainly dry sets up on Friday. Forecast highs each will top out in the mid/upper 80s, locally in the 70s across mountain locales. More sunshine can be had with the frontal zone well off to the south.

Over the weekend, the period of north to northeasterly winds ends with the stalled front returning northward a warm front. Conditions turn warmer along with an uptick in humidity levels. Based on multiple ensemble systems, such temperatures should stay fairly close to average for mid/late July standards. This places highs squarely in the upper 80s to low 90s. Shower and thunderstorm chances return with the return of the front. This pattern is expected to hold on into early next week as well.

Marine
SMWs are possible today and Tuesday with any strong thunderstorms that cross the waters. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will be possible Wednesday after a cold front crosses the waters later in the day and into the overnight hours.

A cold front will track across the waters Thursday morning which brings a shift to northerly winds. These persist through much of the day before turning more northeast to easterly on Friday. At this point, background winds stay below Small Craft Advisory levels. However, there could be some showers and thunderstorms across the southern waters for the first half of Thursday. These could pose a hazard to mariners in the waterways.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Anomalies will be slightly elevated over the next several days with some more sensitive tidal locations reaching action stage. No minor flooding is expected over the next several tide cycles locally.

Climate
Here are some daily high temperature records during the July 16-17 timeframe this week.

Records (RERs) are only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other sites are shown for reference. A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.

***TUESDAY, JULY 16TH, 2024*** LOCATION RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST Washington-National (DCA) 104F (1988) 102F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 104F (1988) 102F Baltimore (BWI) 104F (1988) 102F Martinsburg (MRB) 107F (1988) 99F Charlottesville (CHO) 102F (1988) 100F Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997)+ 98F Hagerstown (HGR) 104F (1988) 100F

***WEDNESDAY, JULY 17TH, 2024*** LOCATION RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST Washington-National (DCA) 102F (1980) 97F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 100F (1997)+ 96F Baltimore (BWI) 101F (1988) 97F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1988)+ 93F Charlottesville (CHO) 100F (1988)+ 96F Annapolis (NAK) 100F (1900) 94F Hagerstown (HGR) 100F (1953)+ 93F

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...

Excessive Heat Warning...om 11am to 8pm EDT Tuesday for DCZ001. MD...

Excessive Heat Warning...om 11am to 8pm EDT Tuesday for MDZ003-006-008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506>508.
Heat Advisory from 11am to 8pm EDT Tuesday for MDZ004-005- 502-503-505. VA...

Excessive Heat Warning...om 11am to 8pm EDT Tuesday for VAZ027>031-053>055-057-527.
Heat Advisory from 11am to 8pm EDT Tuesday for VAZ025-026- 036>040-050-051-056-501-502-504>506-526. WV...

Excessive Heat Warning...om 11am to 8pm EDT Tuesday for WVZ051>053.
Heat Advisory from 11am to 8pm EDT Tuesday for WVZ050-055- 502-504-506.