Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...W Winds 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Patchy Fog Late This Morning. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms Late This Morning, Then Showers With A Chance Of Tstms This Afternoon. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Until Late Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Thu...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1106am EDT Tuesday September 18 2018
Synopsis: A surface boundary associated with the remnants of Florence will press through our area today. High pressure will build over the region Wednesday into Thursday before migrating over the western Atlantic late in the week. A cold front will approach this weekend and stall over the region.
Near Term - Through Tonight
The remnants of Florence is currently situated near southern New England while its associated surface trough stretches southwestward over our area this morning. As a result, scattered showers are being sampled by our local radar, with light to moderate rainfall being observed by locations impacted. Temperatures are in the 70s across the area with mostly cloudy skies prevailing.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase through this afternoon, mainly east of the Blue Ridge, as the aforementioned surface trough tracks eastward. Could see some strong storms, but severe potential appears limited with little shear and marginal lapse rates. Am seeing some breaks in the cloud cover east of I-95, mainly south and east of DC, which could boost instability a bit more over this area. Highest CAPE values will remain along and east of I-95, ranging 1000-1500 J/kg. Heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat as activity picks up this afternoon, especially given a swath of PWATs around two inches. As such, we are continuing to advertise a Flash Flood Watch for much of the DC/Baltimore metro. Latest guidance indicates the greatest threat for heavy rain will be near and east of the I-95 corridor.
Activity will wane this evening as the boundary pushes eastward and winds turn out of the northwest, allowing drier air to filter in to the region. Temperatures tonight will settle in to the 60s with drier conditions prevailing
Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night
High pressure will build over our area Tuesday night and remain in control through Wednesday. Mid to upper level ridging will build east over the SE CONUS Wednesday night, then overhead into Thursday night. Dry conditions and lighter winds are expected over our CWA throughout this period
Long Term - Friday Through Monday
On Friday, an area of low pressure will track across Quebec and Ontario, pushing a cold front southeastward in it's wake over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a weak ridge of high pressure will hold over the Mid-Atlantic, leading to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will run above normal for this time of year, with highs reaching into the mid 80s.
The cold front will progress further south on Saturday and become more zonally oriented in nature, before eventually stalling out for the latter half of the weekend into early Monday. Exactly where this front stalls out will be important to the long range forecast, since it will be a focus for the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day Saturday through Monday. Most model guidance has the front stalling out somewhere in our CWA, which suggests that there will probably be some scattered showers and/or thunderstorms around each afternoon Saturday through Monday. With the boundary stalled out, winds paralleling the front aloft, and the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms multiple days in a row, flash flooding could be a potential concern. Temperatures this weekend through Monday will be heavily dependent on the positioning of the front, with cooler air to the north of the boundary and warmer temperatures to the south.
Southerly winds will continue over the waters through this morning. Winds will shift more northwesterly late Tuesday behind a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Wednesday morning as winds will continue to gust above criteria.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through this morning and more likely Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will build behind the front on Wednesday and remain in control into Thursday allowing for winds to decrease.
Winds could approach Small Craft Advisory levels on Sunday Night and Monday in southerly flow. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on the waters each afternoon Saturday through Monday with a stalled out frontal boundary nearby
River flooding is ongoing along some of our river basins. Please refer to the latest River Flood Watches and Warnings for additional information. Heavy rainfall may produce localized Flash Flooding this afternoon as a surface boundary crosses the area, especially given above normal moisture and antecedent wet conditions. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the DC/Baltimore metro areas
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories are currently in effect for some areas. Anomalies will be on the decrease later today as winds turn northwesterly
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...Flash Flood Watch until 6pm EDT this evening for DCZ001. MD...Flash Flood Watch until 6pm EDT this evening for MDZ011-013- 014-504-506-508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ017. VA...Flash Flood Watch until 6pm EDT this evening for VAZ052>054. Flash Flood Watch until 8pm EDT this evening for VAZ025. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ532-540.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ533-534- 537-541>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 10pm EDT this evening for ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.