Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of This Afternoon...N Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...N Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt...Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft... Building To 3 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Snow. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 4 Ft...Subsiding To 3 Ft After Midnight. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Diminishing To 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 200pm EST Wednesday Feb 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the western Alleghenies late Friday morning through Saturday morning. Gale Watches have been issued for all waters Saturday morning into Saturday night. Additional wind and cold weather headlines will likely be needed (as confidence increases)for the remaining area late Friday into Saturday. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Near-Blizzard conditions possible in the Alleghenies late Friday morning through Saturday morning. - 2) Increasing confidence for wind and cold weather headlines Friday night into the weekend. - 3) Light (on and off) wintry precipitation expected to continue across portions of the central Shenandoah Valley into southern MD through early Thursday morning. KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-Blizzard conditions possible in the Alleghenies late Friday morning through Saturday morning. Confidence has increased enough to warrant the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for portions of the Alleghenies (Garrett, western Grant, western Pendleton Counties) from Friday morning through Saturday. Upwards of 4-6" of snow are likely, with significant impacts from blowing and drifting snow. Travel disruptions are likely along I-68/US-40 west of Frostburg, MD, US-219 from the PA/MD line south to the WV line, US-48 west of Moorefield, WV, US-33/WV-28 west of Franklin, WV, and US-250 west of Monterey, VA. The probabilities for 6 inches of snow remain between 50 to 80 percent, with probs at or just below the 30 percent for 8 inches on the western favored slopes (i.e Backbone Mountain, Piney Mountain, Marsh Mountain, Keysers Ridge, Bear Rocks, North Fork Mountain, Spruce Knob, etc.). With plenty of instability within the DGZ and Arctic air rushing in behind the Arctic front expect increasing SLRs during the event. SLRs look to start around 15:1 Friday afternoon increasing to 25:1/30:1 Friday night into Saturday morning when the bulk of the moderate to heavy snow looks to fall. Snow is going to be hard to measure due to strong winds causing drifts and blow snow. Winds in the mountains ramp up late Friday afternoon into Friday evening as the Arctic front and upper level trough begin to pivot through. The strongest winds look to arrive Friday night into Saturday in the wake of the front and trough swinging through. The combination of gusty winds and moderate/heavy snowfall could lead to near blizzard conditions at times across the mountains. Expect a reduction in visibility below 1/4 mile under heavier bands of snow streamers/squalls along with gusts up to 50 mph (locally higher along the ridges). Areas further east also have the potential to pick up on a dusting to perhaps one inch of snow as the Arctic front sweeps through. This is due in part to snow streamers/squalls that make there way over the mountains. FROUDE numbers remain less than 1, which means limited blocking within northwesterly flow. One thing that remains uncertain is how much of a moisture fetch there is off of Lake Erie and Lake Huron since they are mostly frozen over. Yes, moisture will funnel in from the south ahead of the boundary, but what is left to be tapped into in the wake of the front when the highest snow squall parameter is maximized (as the trough swings ) through remains in question. The probabilities for at least 0.1" of snow remain at 60-90 percent across areas mainly along and north of I-66/US-50. This indicates we could see those streamers and/or snow showers reach the DC and Baltimore metros sometime Friday late afternoon to evening. The probabilities trickle down into the 30 to 50 percent range further south. The probabilities for 1" are at 10 to 20 percent probs east of the mountains during the Friday night into Saturday timeframe. Favored areas for a dusting-1" would be Parr's Ridge, Catoctin Mountains, South Mountain, Sideling Hill, and other higher ridges of the Potomac Highlands. More on snow amounts at weather.gov/lwx/winter. KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing confidence for wind and cold weather headlines Friday night into the weekend. A very strong pressure gradient will set up over the area in the wake of the cold front/potent upper level trough late Friday into much of Saturday. Blocking high pressure to the north and west combined with strengthening low pressure off the Atlantic coast will further exacerbate the magnitude/intensity of winds between 850 and 925 mb (winds greater than 40-60 kts). Expect a very sudden onset of winds sometime early Saturday morning just before daybreak. This is when the axis of the upper trough digs into the Appalachians / northern Mid-Atlantic. Model geopotential heigheights have a very wavy pattern over the mountains, which indicate high likelihood for breaking lee waves that could mix down stronger winds just off the surface. Even as the trough quickly pushes east Saturday afternoon, very strong pressure rises / Cold Air Advection with a high building in from the west will support windy conditions the entire afternoon to evening. The biggest question is how much of this wind mixes down to the surface, especially during the daylight hours Saturday when deeper mixing is maximized. Current guidance suggest two surges of wind, one with the front/trough Friday night and a secondary surge with the pressure rises Saturday. Confidence continues to increase for the need for wind headlines over both land and water. Highest confidence for wind headlines right now appear to be in the mountains where probs for 40 to 50 mph gusts remain above 50 percent. Lower probabilities have also been noted further east of the mountains and toward the I-95 metros generally running between 15 to 20 percent for 50 mph gusts and 70 to 80 percent for 40 to 45 mph gusts. The most likely scenario at this time is steady gusts of 35-45 mph with occasional gusts of 50-60 mph, with up to 60-70 mph over and just downwind (on the eastern slopes) of the mountains (Catoctins, Blue Ridge, Alleghenies). On top of the wind, will come the dangerously cold temperatures and frigid wind chills. Look for lows back in the single digits and teens Friday night with highs Saturday struggling to get out of the teens and mid 20s (single digits mountains). Lows Saturday night areawide with below zero values over the mountains. You combine the Arctic air temperatures with the wind to get widespread subzero wind chills late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. Cold Weather Headlines will likely be needed to encompass this threat with wind chills east of the mountains between 0 and -10 degrees and -20 to -30 degrees over the mountains. These values slowly improve Sunday as winds/gradient begin to relax. KEY MESSAGE 3...Light (on and off) wintry precipitation expected to continue across portions of the central Shenandoah Valley into southern MD through early Thursday morning. An additional weak impulse of energy will traverse the area to the south this evening into tonight bringing another round of light wintry precipitation across far southern portions of the forecast area. This is associated with a southern stream trough that will pass to the south. At the surface, low pressure will move into the Carolinas with an inverted trough stretching northward into the Mid- Atlantic region. These features will support additional light winter precipitation chances later this evening across the far southern Shenandoah Valley and south-central VA Piedmont before drifting toward the northern neck of VA late tonight. Temperatures will once again remain around freezing before falling into the upper 20s as the system departs during the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning. Main precipitation type appears to be snow although some rain may mix in on the northern neck of VA at the onset. Any accumulations will be light and limited to elevated/colder surfaces with a dusting to perhaps 1" expected. Marine SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) continue for the open/ice free waters of the middle/open waters of the Chesapeake Bay and lower tidal Potomac through Thursday afternoon. Northerly channeling will lead to gusts up to 20 kts at times. These advisories will need to be expanded through Thursday evening with a brief lull in the winds late Thursday night into the first half of Friday. Winds turn south to southwest ahead of a powerful Arctic front on Friday, but winds should stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels, and could actually be around or less than 5 kt. Expect a very sudden onset of Gale conditions across all of the waters early Saturday morning around sunrise. Winds will snap to the northwest, increasing for around 10 kt gusts to 35-40 kt gusts. A Gale Watch is now in effect Friday night into Saturday night for all of the waters. Special Marine Warnings are likely to be needed to message the sudden onset of dangerous winds. Occasional gusts to Storm-force (50kt) are possible at times. For ice free waters, freezing spray is going to be an issue, so expect Freezing Spray and/or Heavy Freezing Spray products to be issued. Winds quickly diminish Sunday, but likely won't fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels until Sunday evening. Tides / Coastal Flooding Blowout tides are expected late Friday night through Sunday night. Water levels as low as -2 ft MLLW are possible. Low Water Advisories may be required. The ice covered waters of the northern/middle bay and tidal Potomac could result in the potential for damage to docks, moorings and etc., especially when blowout tides result in significantly lower water levels. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for MDZ509-510. VA...None. WV...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for WVZ501-505. Marine Gale Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for ANZ530>543. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Thursday for ANZ533-534- 537-543. |
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