Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point to North Beach MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Thu...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1020am EDT Monday May 21 2018
Synopsis: A front will remain over the Carolinas into the Appalachian Mountains today through tonight. The front will return north as a warm front on Tuesday with a cold front expected to pass through the area on Wednesday. Weak high pressure will build over the area for the second half of the week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Frontal boundary is stalled out south of the region today across central VA and into central WV. A weakening cluster of showers and isolated thunderstorms moved into portions of eastern WV and western VA this morning, and some additional progress southeastward is likely before dissipation this afternoon. By later this afternoon, some additional shower/thunderstorm development is likely near the frontal boundary and across the higher terrain. Locally heavy rain is possible, and there is a low risk for an isolated flooding incident or two, although the majority of the convection should be south/west towards Blacksburg/Roanoke/Charleston on the warm side of the boundary.
Otherwise, a general increase in clouds is anticipated, with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
The front will begin to lift northward tonight. Any showers/thunderstorms should see a weakening trend. Low clouds and patchy fog may also develop. Warm air advection will allow for low temperatures to be around 10 degrees above normal across the region tonight
Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night
The boundary will return north and east as a warm front Tuesday, and a southwest flow aloft will continue around high pressure over the Atlantic. The southwest flow will usher in more moisture across our area, and instability will return due to the moisture and daytime heating. The boundary will act as the lifting mechanism for showers and thunderstorms to develop, with the best chance for convection coming during the afternoon and evening hours. PWATS over 1.5 inches suggest that there will be enough moisture for thunderstorms to contain heavy rainfall, and moderate to perhaps high amounts of instability thunderstorms may contain gusty winds or hail. However, the threat for severe thunderstorms is still limited due to the lack of deep layer shear.
A weak cold front will approach the region Tuesday night before passing through Wednesday into Wednesday evening. A drier northwest flow will limit convection behind the boundary Wednesday, but will still carry the slight chance to chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, with the highest probability of precipitation across southern areas
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
Weak high pressure will build overhead Thursday before moving offshore Friday. A north to northwest flow will allow for dry and less humid conditions Thursday along with sunshine. The humidity may creep back a bit Friday due to a return flow, but mainly dry conditions are expected to remain in place.
High pressure will set up over the Atlantic for Saturday and Sunday and a southwest flow will allow for moisture to return, increasing the chances for popup showers and thunderstorms. Tropical moisture has the chance to get drawn north into the area, but confidence is still low at this time. If it does, then showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread.
A weak cold front will stall to the south and west through tonight. A northeast flow this morning will turn to the southeast later today into tonight. Winds should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria during this time.
A warm front will approach the waters Tuesday into Tuesday night before a cold front passes through Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms may contain gusty winds. South to southeast winds may approach Small Craft Advisory Criteria Tuesday and a northwest flow behind the cold front may cause winds to approach Small Craft Advisory criteria Wednesday, but confidence is low for Tuesday due to the relatively cooler waters.
High pressure will return for Thursday before moving offshore Friday into the weekend
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Freshwater continues to decrease as water levels on the Potomac River upstream have crested and they continue to fall. Therefore, the threat for moderate flooding has ended. Minor flooding is still expected near times of high tide through tonight, and it is possible Tuesday for Washington DC. Will continue with the advisory through tonight, and it may need to be extended into Tuesday as well
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for DCZ001. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None