Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 5 Kt...Becoming Se Late. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Diminishing To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming E After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 927pm EDT Monday September 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made to this forecast package. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry through mid week. - 2) Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry through mid week. The latest surface analysis paints a quiet picture over the area with sprawling high pressure extending over the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic states. Conditions remain tranquil this evening with just some passing mid to high clouds dropping down from the upper Mid-Atlantic. The dry nature of the air mass will support ample cooling into the night. High pressure will persist over the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday before gradually moving offshore. Large scale subsidence and dry air lead to a precipitation-free forecast with temperatures rising to several degrees above normal as the high pulls offshore. This leads to high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday, perhaps near 90 Wednesday (slightly cooler in the mountains). Low temperatures (and dew points) will generally be in the 50s and 60s during this time. Some river valley fog is likely each morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday. The upper-level ridge will begin to flatten out Wednesday before breaking down and pushing south and east into Thursday. Several pieces of upper-level energy rotating around an upper low centered over the Hudson Bay will slowly push a cold front south towards our region by Thursday. At the surface, high pressure pushing offshore will bring increasingly warm and humid conditions to the area, with highs in the 80s to near 90 with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, with the highest values being Thursday. Model guidance over the past 24 hours has come into better agreement in regards to the progression of the front on Thursday, as well as the upper-level pattern in association with it. The front really looks like it will flatten out as it moves southward, and really loses the upper-level support. The timing of peak heating and the highest shear just doesn't look to line up at this point. There may be some jet-induced showers and storms late Thursday as we move into the right entrance of the upper jet centered over New England, but not necessarily expecting those to be severe at that point, as the front should be largely through the region. At this point, the severe weather threat looks very limited, but any storm that develops on the warm side of the boundary could bring some gusty winds along with it, but the lack of a substantial wind field will really make that more difficult with southward extent. As this cold front transitions offshore Friday, temps drop again and conditions become much drier heading into the start of the weekend as high pressure moves in overhead. The next system may approach by late next weekend. Marine High pressure will result in light northeast winds becoming south through Tuesday. Winds may increase briefly early Wednesday morning as the high shifts offshore, but are more likely to increase in southerly channeling Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Winds shift to the west and northwest and could remain gusty Thursday as a cold front crosses, possibly bringing a few showers and thunderstorms. Winds should become lighter heading into Friday. Tides / Coastal Flooding Tide levels remain around 1 to 1.25 feet above normal. With light northeast winds becoming southerly, tide levels are likely to remain relatively steady around 1 foot above astronomical norms through the middle of the week. The higher of the two diurnal tides is in the later night/early morning period, during which time Annapolis is most likely to hit minor flood stage through early Thursday prior to a cold front shifting winds to the west. Other sites like Havre de Grace, Bowley's Quarters, and Alexandria could approach minor flood at times, as well. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7am EDT Tuesday for MDZ014. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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