Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

NW
WINDS
20
KNOTS

TUE

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ533 Forecast Issued: 133 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
Overnight...Nw Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.
Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.
Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Thu Night...N Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Fri...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft...Building To 3 Ft After Midnight. Rain Likely Through The Night.
Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. Rain Likely.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
909pm EDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Synopsis
High pressure returns briefly Tuesday before another cold front crosses the area Wednesday. Very gusty west to northwesterly flow is expected at times through midweek along with mountain snow showers. High pressure briefly builds back in from the north Thursday with increasing rain chances later this week as low pressure pushes north from the Gulf Coast.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Snow has begun falling this evening and is expected to continue into the overnight hours along/west of the Allegheny Front. During that time, some areas will experience lulls in snowfall. Overall, the setup favors most of the accumulating snow to be above 2500 feet, with a dusting possible at some lower elevations on western slopes. Forecast snow amounts remain at 1-3 inches over portions of Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton Counties.

Freezing temperatures are likely across the entire area tonight as lows drop to the upper 20s to lower 30s. The urban centers of DC, Baltimore, and areas right along the Potomac and Chesapeake will likely stay just above freezing. The windy conditions in the Alleghenies will produce wind chills in the single digits to teens.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Outside of the Alleghenies, another dry and seasonal spring day is expected. Highs reach the low to mid 50s as west to west-southwest winds increase in the afternoon. Some mid-level cloudiness builds in towards the afternoon and evening hours. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds Tuesday will lead to an elevated fire danger Tuesday, more on that in the fire weather section below.

Mountain snow showers decreases early Tuesday before ramping back up Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. This could produce another inch, though mostly at the highest elevations. Although temperatures are marginal during the daylight hours, the forecast carries readings to around freezing by the time precipitation re-commences.

Milder conditions Tuesday night as lows only drop to the 30s to around 40F.

A series of reinforcing cold fronts and upper troughs cross the area Tuesday into Wednesday, though not much cold air nor precipitation accompanies them. However, the main impact is going to be increasing winds on Wednesday. Sustained west winds could gust up to 20-25mph east of the Blue Ridge, and around 35-40mph to the west. Some eastern slopes of the Alleghenies could gust up to 45-50mph. Wind Advisories may be needed for portions of the Alleghenies. These strong winds could result in isolated downed trees and power lines. Much warmer temperatures Wednesday as highs reach the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Long Term - Thursday Through Monday
High pressure will build eastward from the Great Lakes region to southern New England Thursday and Thursday night. Dry conditions Thursday and Thursday night. Highs will be cooler than average with temperatures in the lower to middle 40s with some lower 50s in eastern Virginia.

Dry conditions continue Friday morning. An approaching low pressure system from the southwest areas of the eastern Tennessee Valley and western Carolinas will spread the chance of rain into the mid- Atlantic region Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Rain amounts should be intermittent and light with a few pockets of moderate rain possible depending on the model of choice. Also, depending on the model, the chance of rain versus the chance of light accumulating snow in the west and higher elevations changing over to snow, shows this big discrepancy. For now, we have a chance of rain and snow in the west and higher elevations. Temperatures will be cooler than average per the cloud cover and possible rain.

A brief break in any rainfall could occur later on Saturday and continue into Saturday night with weak high pressure trying to build in behind the departing low. The European model has a more generous solution of retrograding a coastal low back westward into the mid- Atlantic region Sunday into Sunday night and spreading a more modest stratiform rain into our region. This Euro run is the older run. The latest GFS (Global Forecast System) model run shows the low from late Friday into Saturday moving on and having a ridge of high pressure building in from the west. Uncertainties on the late week and weekend low pressure along the coastal is moderate to high, considering a retrograding low would soak our region. Temperatures Saturday into Sunday should be average.

Marine
A prolonged period of gusty west to northwest winds continues through mid week across all the waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Tuesday evening, and will likely need to be extended through Tuesday night for the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay. Additional SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) may be needed for Wednesday.

Small craft advisories likely Thursday. No marine hazards Thursday night. Small craft advisories possible Friday into Friday night. Winds northwest 10 to 20 knots gusts 25 knots Thursday. Winds north to northeast around 10 knots Thursday night. Winds becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots gusts 20 knots Friday and Friday night.

Fire Weather
Elevated to high fire danger is expected across the area each afternoon through Thursday as dry and gusty conditions persist. The strong surface and transport winds are going to produce very good to excellent smoke dispersion each afternoon, especially on Wednesday where dispersion is beyond excellent. This will make control of ongoing fires difficult at times, and new fires could rapidly spread.

The worst conditions are likely on Wednesday, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of our Virginia, and West Virginia counties, plus the DC Metro. The Watch may need to be expanded into most of Maryland. Additionally, Special Weather Statements will be needed Tuesday, and likely on Thursday, to account for elevated fire weather conditions on those days.

The 10/100 hour fuels are still relative "moist", with values around 10-15pct for most areas, though the Shenandoah Valley region looks to be closer to 9-10 percent per the latest observations. As the week progresses, these fuels will rapidly dry out due to the combination of gusty winds, very low humidities, and increasing temperatures.

Even at night, continued mixing will lead to poor RH recovery. Maximum morning RH values between 55 to 65 percent are expected each night. Slightly higher values can be expected along and west of the Alleghenies where snow showers are expected this evening and into early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday brings continued west to northwest winds gusting around 20- 25mph in the afternoon, and up to 35-40mph in the mountains. Low minimum RH values of 15-25pct for most of the area, with 25-35pct in northeast MD and far western MD.

Wednesday is likely to bring the worst fire weather conditions. The strongest winds will be west of the Blue Ridge - west 15-25mph with gusts of 35-40mph, and slightly lower east of the Blue Ridge - sustained 15-20mph with gusts to 25-30mph. This combined with drying fuels and minimum RH values of 20-30pct produce conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread.

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for DCZ001. MD...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for MDZ013-016-503-504. VA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053>057-501>508- 526-527. WV...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for WVZ050>053-055-501>506.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>543.