Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Sat...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
343am EST Fri Nov 22 2019
A cold front will cross the region today. Low pressure will develop over the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight and track northeastward across the Mid- Atlantic through early Sunday. High pressure is expected to return later Sunday into early next week. Another area of low pressure and its associated cold front may approach from the west during the middle of next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Latest surface analysis suggests cold front near Toronto-Cincinnati. A few stray/light radar echoes traversing the Mid Atlantic early this morning, but with dry air below 5000 ft (and most cloud bases closer to 8000-10,000 ft), doubt anything is reaching the ground.
Frontal passage will occur during the midday hours, accompanied by a several hour period of showers. Cold advection will rapidly ensue behind front. Believe that most of the moisture will depart first. would not rule out a few snowflakes at the end in the mountains, but do not believe the risk warrants a database mention. Similarly, it is possible that moist layer will be too shallow to support measurable hydrometeors, but its a minimal possibility...and will omit from forecast.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Sunday Night
High pressure will build over the forecast area tonight, and move offshore Saturday morning. Dry weather will prevail through this time. Have shaded tonight's lows a touch cooler owing the the radiational component.
By Saturday morning, low pressure will be in the Tennessee Valley ejecting north ahead of a digging trough axis. Guidance has trended slightly later with onset timing of associated precip...closer to late morning central Shenandoah Valley/foothills and afternoon elsewhere. With that in mind, although there still may be a cool wedge in place it should primarily be an above freezing wedge. Aside from the first few hours Saturday morning (in the aforementioned portion of central Virginia) am forecasting a widespread rain. Will need to monitor a shallow elevated layer though with may be isothermal near freezing that could result in a slice of mountain freezing rain.
On the back side of the low, cold air will return producing a brief period of upslope snow showers. Accumulations should be minimal, and have made no adjustments from the previous forecast.
High pressure will return Sunday but with breezy conditions.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
We'll start the work week off with zonal flow aloft. Sunny skies and light winds are in the forecast, with high temperatures in the low 50s. High pressure will strengthen to our south and east on Tuesday, while a shortwave trough works its way through the center of the country. Sunny skies are expected locally, with light southerly winds and highs in the mid-upper 50s.
The aforementioned shortwave and its associated surface low will track from the central Mississippi Valley toward the southern Great Lakes and eventually into the St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday Night through Wednesday. As the low tracks to our north, it will drag a cold front through our area during the day on Wednesday. A few passing showers may be possible in advance of the front Tuesday Night or Wednesday, but by and large condtions should remain dry as the strongest mid-upper level forcing for ascent in advance of the shortwave will pass well to our north. In the wake of the cold front, gusty northwesterly winds will be possible Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will build to our north over the Great Lakes on Thursday, leading to seasonable temperatures and dry conditions.
Winds have generally subsided in the early morning, due mainly to poor mixing. Still have some 15-20 kt gusts from the mouth of the Potomac to Tangier Sound. While mixing may improve after sunrise, effects from insolation will be offset by a passing cold front. Have restructured Small Craft Advisory to Sandy Point south including the mouth of the Potomac. Behind the front, there should be a period of deeper mixing in cold advection before sunset/building high pressure. Have preserved SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for all waters mid afternoon-midnight, continuing overnight for lower tidal Potomac/Drum Point-Smith Point/Tangier Sound.
Another are of low pressure will cross the waters Saturday afternoon- evening, with deep mixing once again in the wake of this system. Small Craft Advisories likely Sunday.
Sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected on Monday and Tuesday.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Water levels on the Bay rapidly increased overnight, with several sites well into Action Stage/almost minor flood. Higher than normal tides may continue this morning before gradually subsiding. Do not expect any inundation, but theam cycle will be close once again at sensitive locations.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Saturday for ANZ534-537- 543. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ532-533- 540-541.