Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast
|Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Isolated Showers This Morning, Then Showers And Numerous Tstms This Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm...Decreasing To 1 Nm Or Less This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Tue...W Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
338am EDT Monday May 16 2022
A cold front will pass through the region this afternoon into this evening before moving off to the east overnight. A dry reinforcing cold front will pass through Tuesday and high pressure will build overhead Tuesday night. A warm front will approach from the south Wednesday before passing through Thursday into early Friday. Bermuda high will setup later Friday before a cold front possibly impacts the area this weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
A light southwest flow continues to usher in higher amounts of low-level moisture early this morning. This moisture will once again get trapped underneath the nocturnal inversion, resulting in areas of low clouds and fog. Do not think dense fog will be as widespread as Sunday morning since some mid-level clouds are hanging around. However, patchy dense fog is still expected. Any fog should burn off between 11z and 13z this morning.
Isolated showers are expected early this morning as well in response to a strengthening wind field aloft, a weak surface trough, and elevated instability. A rumble of thunder is possible as well, mainly across southern MD and the VA Piedmont where MUCAPE is a bit higher.
For the rest of today, a potent upper-level trough will dig from the Ohio Valley into our area, and the cold front associated with this system will pass through our region during the afternoon into the early evening. The wind field will increase significantly causing moderate to strong shear (deep layer shear most likely around 40-60 knots). The increased shear combined with height falls, strong forcing along the front, and moderate CAPE enhances the threat for severe thunderstorms. There will be a couple opportunities for strong to severe storms. First will be along a differential heating boundary between convection moving into the Appalachians and destabilization taking place to the east from daytime heating late this morning into this afternoon. Thinking is that as convection propagates east, it will intensify east of the Appalachians as it runs into a more unstable airmass. Convection will likely develop into line segments with embedded supercells possible. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, but large hail and a few tornadoes are possible given slightly backed surface flow and modest low/mid-level hodograph curvature.
Another round of convection is possible along the front during the mid to late afternoon hours, and shear will even be stronger along with more falling heights. Therefore, some of these storms may be severe as well. However, confidence is lower for this since the atmosphere may be worked over by widespread convection associated with the first round. Having that been said, it will not take much given the strong wind field and jet dynamics that will be overhead by the time this is moving through. Basically, if the first round is weaker (or earlier) than anticipated, then the convection associated with the front will likely be strong to severe. However, if the first round is widespread with strong to severe storms, then the second round may be a little weaker. Either way, these rounds will only be a couple hours apart, so the bottom line is that scattered to numerous severe storms will impact the area this afternoon into early this evening from west to east.
Anyone who plans on travelling or being outdoors today should pay extra attention to any watches and warnings, and be ready to seek shelter quickly.
There is also an isolated flood/flash flood threat. Faster storm motion suggests that threat will be limited, but PWs are elevated, and FFG is low due to recent rainfall. Also, if bowing segments develop, the southern portion of the bowing segment could be parallel to the cloud layer wind for a period. If this does occur, that could enhance the flood/flash flood threat.
The cold front will move off to the east tonight, and it will turn out drier and noticeably cooler.
Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night
A weak reinforcing cold front will pass through Tuesday, but little moisture will be associated with it, so it will remain dry. Sunshine is expected Tuesday with just a few clouds, and it will be breezy with low humidity.
High pressure will build overhead Tuesday night bringing dry and cool conditions.
A warm front gradually approaches from the south and west Wednesday through Wednesday night while our area remains in a nearly zonal flow aloft. Upper-level disturbances in the zonal flow aloft along with the approaching warm front will bring a chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Timing and details are uncertain this far out, but it does look like the best chance for precipitation will be late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
The warm front will become established across southern Virginia by daybreak Thursday. Guidance continues to suggest a risk of one or two MCSs forming somewhere near the region, uncertainty remains in timing and location. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has been the most consistent in terms of timing and location suggesting a complex of storms developing along the warm front as it lifts into central Virginia (generally south of I-64) Thursday. The GFS has been farther north (with the 16/00Z GFS delaying said complex until after midnight Thursday night). Given steady advection of heat and instability into the region and modest shear beneath the southern fringes of the westerlies, there could be multiple rounds of storms Thursday and Thursday night. Strong storms are possible, but confidence remains low.
By Friday afternoon, models generally agree that the warm front will be north of the area with relatively lower thunderstorm chances. 850 hPa temperatures near 20 C Friday into Saturday resulting in summer- like temperatures at the surface. Heat index values could approach 95 F during the afternoon hours each day if the hotter scenarios come to fruition.
Over the weekend, some differences remain among the global models regarding the timing of the next trough/front. The latest 00Z guidance suggests the potential for a rather stormy and unsettled weekend, but would prefer more run to run consistency before raising precipitation potential above the "chance" category.
Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected this afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats, but an isolated waterspout cannot be ruled out. The best chance for strong to severe storms will be between 18z and 23z. Special Marine Warnings will likely be needed. If you plan on being out on the waters during this time, be ready to seek shelter quickly before storms arrive.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters ahead of the cold front this afternoon and behind the cold front this evening into the early overnight hours. Winds will diminish toward morning. However, more gusty northwest winds are expected Tuesday, particularly across the northern and middle portion of the Bay and tidal Potomac River where an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in effect Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Winds will diminish Tuesday night as high pressure builds overhead.
A warm front will approach the waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may be needed for south to southeast winds late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Southerly flow may near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria at times Thursday into Friday, with the potential for thunderstorms to result in gustier winds.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
A southerly flow will continue to cause elevated water levels today. The preferred astronomical high tide will be this morning and the southerly flow should be light during this time. Therefore, most areas will be in caution stage. Will continue to monitor Washington DC around the Southwest Waterfront with the high tide cycle this morning; it will be close to minor flooding thresholds.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540-542. Small Craft Advisory from 9am to 8pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2am EDT Tuesday for ANZ533-534-537-541-543.