Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Nw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Se Late. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft...Building To 3 Ft In The Afternoon. Showers And Tstms Likely. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 5 Kt...Becoming S. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...S Winds 5 Kt...Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Day. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 213am EDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Storm Prediction Center added a 30% wind contour for Sunday severe weather threat. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry conditions today, severe thunderstorms return Sunday. - 2) A cool and primarily dry pattern early in the week, followed by a return to warm and humid conditions and the potential for strong thunderstorms on Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions today, severe thunderstorms return Sunday. Quiescent weather returns today with mostly sunny skies and lower humidity. Temps will still be 5-8 degrees above average for highs (upper 80s to around 90), but it will feel cooler and less humid as dewpoints drop into upper 50s and low 60s. Sunday features the next chance for severe wx. Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Level 2 out of 5 (Slight Risk) for the area, however they have increased the wind probs to 30%. Could see upgrade to Level 3 out of 5 (Enhanced Risk) depending on model trends over the next 24 hours. Stay tuned for the latest... In terms of the meteorology, a sw will rotate around the base of an UL trough Sun. Ahead of the wave, southerly flow will usher in anomalous moisture with PWs nearing 2" and dewpoints near 70F. The sw will bring height falls aloft near peak heating resulting in notable instability. The above will overlap with increasing wind shear. The combination of increasing instability, shear, and large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the shortwave and an approaching cold front will lead to the development of widespread thunderstorms during the afternoon, some of which could be severe. Model soundings indicate steep low level lapse rates (especially for the Mid-Atlantic) which will result in higher DCAPE values and therefore stronger wind gusts. There's still a fair amount of spread in guidance with respect to the timing and exact placement of the storms, but as of now the threat looks to be greatest to the east of the Blue Ridge. Some guidance has discrete supercells ahead of the front, followed by linear segments which make sense given unidirectional shear. The main threats with storms will damaging winds, large hail, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. WPC has a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal ERO) for the metros, but progressive nature and prevailing drought look to limit the overall flood threat. The system's cold front will move through Sunday night, advecting cooler and drier air into the region, which will bring the threat for severe thunderstorms to an end. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cool and dry pattern early in the week, followed by a return to warm and humid conditions and the potential for strong thunderstorms on Thursday. UL trough is forecast to build over the region early next week and remain in place through Wed. This pattern will bring much cooler conditions to the region with daily high temps in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s favored Monday through Wed. A combination of mid level disturbances and moisture will keep skies partly/mostly cloudy with on and off chances for showers. Model ensembles have the trough. pattern starting to break down on Thu allowing warm and humid conditions to return to the region. Increasing moisture and temperatures along with a potential frontal passage will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thu. Depending on the strength of the upper level shortwave driving the cold front, there could be a risk for strong thunderstorms capable of producing some gusty winds. Marine Light and variable winds are expected over the waters today. Winds turn out of the south on Sun. Have issued SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for all waters late morning through late evening. SMWs may also potentially be needed as thunderstorms move over the waters Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are most likely Monday through Wed. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 11am to 11pm EDT Sunday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 11am to 11pm EDT Sunday for ANZ530>543. |
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