Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of This Afternoon...S Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming Sw 10 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain And Snow In The Evening. |
| Tue...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt...Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 224pm EST Fri Nov 7 2025 Synopsis Dry weather continues through this afternoon with rain chances returning later this evening into early Saturday morning as a cold front crosses the region. A warm front will lift through the area Saturday into Sunday with a stronger cold front to follow Sunday night into Monday. This front will bring the coldest air by far this season along with accumulating snow over the Allegheny Mountains. Cold temperatures and breezy conditions will linger through Tuesday before another warm up by the middle of next week. Near Term - Through Tonight Increasing clouds and breezy conditions are expected for the remainder of the afternoon as high pressure pushes offshore and a cold front approaches from the Ohio River Valley. Showers and few embedded thunderstorms have been noted along the front as it makes it's way toward the Ohio River and into western PA. The front will eventually push into the Alleghenies later this afternoon and toward the Blue Ridge/I-95 metros this evening into tonight (after 6-9pm). In the meantime, expect gusts of 20 to 30 mph through early this evening as southerly warm air advection continues to intensify ahead of the incumbent front. Flow will generally be out of the west with a downslope component just east of the Allegheny Mountains. With that said, elevated fire weather concerns remain for portions of the Shenandoah Valley and eastern West Virginia. This is largely due in part to the combination of gusty winds and low RH values (30-40 percent) along with ongoing fire/drought concerns. The threat today should not be as widespread given the increased cloud cover and uptick in moisture on southerly flow. Please read the Fire Weather section at the bottom for more details. Expect highs this afternoon in the upper 50s and mid 60s. Mountain locations will be a touch cooler in the low to mid 50s. Rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will likely develop west of the Alleghenies later this afternoon and evening (between 4- 7pm). Current HREF probs have CAPE values less than 300 j/kg and a smattering of 40 dbz paintballs between 21z-1z/4-8pm. Storms will remain below severe limits given stability aloft. Most will see a progressive band/area of light to moderate showers work from west to east across the region (between 3z-10z/10pm-5am). Moisture will be limited with rainfall amounts generally between a 0.10 to 0.25 inches areawide. Locally higher amounts are possible along the Alleghenies given terrain influences. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 40s and and mid 50s with increased cloud cover. These values will be much warmer than previous nigheights given a warm front lifting north ahead of the main cold front overnight into early Saturday morning. Rain chances will quickly diminish from west to east heading into daybreak Saturday as drier air quickly pushes in. Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night It's the upside of the roller coaster before the big fall heading into early next week when it comes to temperatures across the region. Temperatures look to warm back into the mid 60s and low 70s outside the mountains on both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will feature more sunshine compared to cloud cover although Sunday could be warmer given the fact that a warm front will be lifting through the area. Synoptically, progressive cyclonic flow aloft remains with upper level low pressure anchored over Hudson Bay and several perturbations pivoting around it. The most notable will be an area of low pressure and artic front digging south within a potent trough Sunday into the first half of next week. A warm front will lift northward ahead of this boundary late Saturday night into Sunday providing increasing clouds and some passing warm air advection showers. Shower coverage will be fairly scattered with dry time in between Saturday night into Sunday morning. Rain chances look to become a bit more widespread later in the afternoon and evening (Sunday) as the front crosses from the Ohio River Valley. Once again rainfall amounts will be fairly light with most locations receiving less than a quarter of an inch. In the Alleghenies, rain will change to snow late Sunday into Monday as colder air rushes in on gusty northwest flow. Expect 850mb temperatures Sunday afternoon of +5 to +8 degrees C Sunday afternoon crashing to +3 to -6 degrees C Sunday evening into Sunday night. Any snow accumulation Sunday night over the Alleghenies would be confined to grassy surfaces with the warm surface temperatures from the prior 2 days in the 50s as well as rainfall earlier in the day. See weather.gov/lwx/winter for more details on snowfall. Wind will also be an issue Sunday on top of the rain and snow chances. Expect south to southwest gusts of 15 to 25 mph ahead of the boundary with gusts of 20 to 35 mph in post-frontal west to northwest flow Sunday night into Monday. Low temperatures on Sunday night fall into the mid 30s to low 40s east of the Blue Ridge with 20s over the Alleghenies. Wind chills early Monday morning in the mountains will feel more like the teens and low 20s. Long Term - Monday Through Friday Surface cold front will be off the Atlantic coast Monday morning with a deep parent upper trough expected to pivot overhead by early Tuesday. Strong cold air advection is expected behind this front Sunday night through Monday evening on blustery NW winds gusting up to 35 mph. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be hard to get out of the 40s with wind chills in the 20s at night and mid 30s during the day. Accumulating snow showers are expected for areas west of the Allegheny Front. High Froude numbers on Monday associated with the strong NW flow indicate potential for snow showers to make it well east of the mountains Monday afternoon, possibly dusting the ground in a few places. Over the mountains, two to fourth tenths liquid water equivalent amounts combined with high SLRs of 18 to 1 may yield snow totals of 3 to 7 inches over the favored upslope areas such as Bayard WV and western Garrett County MD. As of right now, it still looks like an advisory level snow event with a small chance of meeting warning criteria. The trough axis will shift east of the area Tuesday with warm air advection aloft and snow showers diminishing. Clear and cold Tuesday night under diminishing winds. Warmer for the middle and second half of the week as pattern deamplifies. Marine Small Craft Advisories are in place for all waters through the overnight hours. Gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are possible during this period. The winds are due in part to departing high pressure offshore and an approaching cold front from the Ohio River Valley. The cold front will bring light to moderate showers to the waters late tonight after 04z/11pm with winds shifting to the west and northwest Saturday morning. Winds become northwesterly on Saturday and stay below advisory thresholds. Another uptick in wind fields is likely for the second half of Sunday as southerly flow intensifies ahead of a stronger frontal system. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed ahead of this system as well as for the gusty west-northwesterly winds in the wake. Strong SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Monday through Thursday in blustery west to northwest flow. Strongest winds on Tuesday with possible gales. Fire Weather A cold front will cross the region later tonight into Saturday. Latest model guidance does show an uptick in the RH values for the most part, but still dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s during the afternoon for most. Locally, the Shenadoah Valley may see much lower RH values, particularly in the northern portions and up into eastern WV/west-central MD. The strong southerly winds will create a downsloping effect on the northwest side of the Blue Ridge/Allegheny mountains. Additionally, winds today will be around 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph out of the south. The combination of these two elements, paired with very dry fuels from recent days, could lead to an elevated risk for wildfire spread this afternoon. New fire starts may be more difficult, owing to cloud cover and temperatures in the low to mid 60s, but any ongoing fires could face some challenges. The aforementioned cold front pushes through tonight, but it is likely to only yield up to a tenth of an inch of precipitation in any one given location. A stronger cold front moves through late Sunday leading to more gusty winds, but much colder temperatures into next week. Another tenth to a quarter of an inch of precipitation is possible with the secondary front Sunday. Accumulating snow will also be concern for the Alleghenies. Even with all that said, additional fire weather concerns are possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week given gusty post frontal west to northwest flow. Tides / Coastal Flooding While tidal levels remain on the lower side, expect an uptick in the next 12 to 24 hours in response to the southerly flow. However, no tidal flooding is anticipated at this time. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 5am EST Saturday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 5am EST Saturday for ANZ530>534- 537-539>543. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Saturday for ANZ535-536- 538. |
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