Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...S Winds 5 Kt...Becoming Sw Late. Waves 1 Ft. Rain Late This Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Rain This Afternoon. Areas Of Dense Fog Late This Morning, Then Patchy Fog This Afternoon. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt... Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Sat Night...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain And Snow. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Snow And Rain. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Through The Day. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming W Around 5 Kt In The Evening, Then Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1029am EST Fri Feb 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Wind Advisory has been expanded in areal coverage to include central and eastern Allegany County, eastern Mineral, eastern Grant, and eastern Pendleton from 1pm to 10pm today/this evening. Also, some early 12z guidance is arriving and continues to show similar results as the 00z guidance in which the late weekend system will bring a mix of rain and snow early Sunday before transitioning over to all snow Sunday afternoon and evening. There is still some discrepancies between the models in terms of exact track of the winter storm, precipitation type, and intensity. .KEY MESSAGES... -1) Slight winter storm threat continues for the entire area Sunday into Monday as low pressure tracks along/near the coast. Colder than normal temperatures early next week. -2) Low clouds, drizzle and pockets of rain will exit around midday. Turning breezy with some clearing this afternoon as a cold front pushes through. KEY MESSAGE 1...Slight winter storm threat continues for the entire area Sunday into Monday as low pressure tracks along/near the coast. Colder than normal temperatures early next week. A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for the back half of the weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified, but in flux as a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska inducing a downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S. This pattern amplification in the vicinity of western North America comes with low predictability due to data sparse regions over the North Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows interact/merge over Maritime Canada, with inherent low predictability with two cutoff lows interacting. If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge into northern New England. There is also an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation amounts and placement. After reviewing the 00z model guidance suite, some subtle consistency has been noted although subtle uncertainty remains. Most of the models has a low tracking up from GA/AL toward the NC coast and off the Delmarva coast during the late Saturday night into late Sunday timeframe. The question remains in the proximity toward the coast along with cold air availability, and the overall scope of the precipitation shield pending the placement/intensity of the system. 25 to 50 miles could make a huge difference between seeing little to no wintry precipitation or impactful precip, especially for those east of the mountains where the confidence remains low due to thermal issues especially below elevations of 1500 feet. The 00z GFS/GEFS solutions have come down a tad, but still produce measurements on the order of 10+" of snow over a large chunk of the area. Meanwhile, the 12z EPS ensembles came up some, but at much more conservative levels which align with deterministic runs of the NAM, RDPS, GDPS, GEM, CMC, EURO/EURO AIFS, and UKMET. The latest NBM also came up a bit and aligns with the majority compared to the GFS/GEFS outliers, especially along and east of I-95. With that said, the 6/12z model suites should put the remaining puzzle pieces together as we will sit 60 hours from the event. Three scenarios remain: 1) The phase of all of these upper level features occurs too late, with low development offshore and too far southeast. 2) Similar to scenario 1, but an inverted trough on the back side of the low brings snow to eastern portions of the region. 3) Low develops closer to shore and strengthens along Delmarva Peninsula, resulting in the most snow for our areas. We still remain in the "wait and see" period with this storm, so just take precautions now, should the worst case scenario play out. Having a preparedness kit stocked up is never a bad idea. Lastly, no matter what plays out further east, it seems much more likely that the mountains will see another round of upslope snow. The key here will be with how much we manage to get. That will depend on the storm track as well, but it seems much more likely for at least advisory to perhaps warning level accumulations through the Sunday/Monday period along/west of the Allegheny Front. Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor especially for lower elevations if precipitation occurs during the day. Cold air will also be filtering into the region as the storm in question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type. Regardless of exactly how the details of the Sunday-Monday system play out, another shot of below normal temperatures is favored for early next week. Currently, high temperatures in the 40s (30s in the mountains) with lows in the 20s (teens in the mountains) are forecast through Tuesday night, with some midweek moderation after. KEY MESSAGE 2...Low clouds, drizzle, and pockets of rain will exit around midday. Turning breezy with some clearing this afternoon as a cold front pushes through. The front will bring an end to the rain midday with increased winds over the higher ridges of the Alleghenies. Gusts could reach 40-50 mph (western Allegany, western Grant, western Pendleton, and western Mineral counties) this afternoon into late evening, which could cause some isolated/minor damage given the saturated ground. There's still a signal in some guidance that these strong winds could downslope into the lee (US 220 corridor (i.e eastern Allegany, Hampshire, Hardy, Morgan, eastern Grant, and eastern Pendleton counties)) during the evening hours. Further east, more stable low level conditions are expected, so winds will remain relatively tame with gust of 15 to 25 mph along and directly behind the front this afternoon and into the evening hours. Lighter winds are expected Saturday as the front pushes south of the area and stalls. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 40s over northeast MD where low clouds will hang on the longest to near 70 across the central VA Piedmont/Shenandaoh Valley. Similar values are expected Saturday although slightly cooler over (in the mid 50s and low 60s) central VA/Shenandoah Valley due to gradual cold air advection. Marine Light to moderate rain should move over northern/middle portions of the tidal Potomac/Chesapeake Bay allowing visibilities to briefly improve midday. Further improvement can be expected this afternoon and evening as cold front cross the waters. Gusts may approach advisory criteria later this afternoon into early evening, but appears to be marginal/brief (4 hour window or less). This threat will most likely be covered by a Marine Weather Statement over a Small Craft Advisory given the sporadic nature of the wind along and behind the front as it pushes through. Lighter west winds are forecast Saturday. A potentially strong low pressure system will slide by to our south Sunday into Monday. There is a lot of uncertainty at this time, but should this system track closer to our region and strengthen early enough, some significant marine winds are possible. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) appear likely at this time, but couldn't completely rule out Gales in that period too. However, that will largely be driven by the track/strength of the low, which it is just too early to tell at this time. Tides / Coastal Flooding Sensitive locations are likely to reach Action Stage during high tide through tonight before tides decrease a bit Saturday behind a departing cold front. Greatest chance of reaching minor flood stage will occur at Annapolis this evening. Tides are uncertain with potential coastal storm Sunday into Monday given divergent model solutions on the track/strength. While some tidal flooding can't be ruled out, a more probable outcome is that strong north winds could result in crashing tide levels. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Wind Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 10pm EST this evening for MDZ501-502-510. VA...Wind Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 10pm EST this evening for VAZ503. WV...Wind Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 10pm EST this evening for WVZ501>506. Marine None. |
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