Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

THU

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

S
WINDS
15
KNOTS

FRI

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ533 Forecast Issued: 1233 AM EST Thu Feb 09 2023

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
Overnight...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.
Thu...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Thu Night...S Winds 15 Kt...Becoming Sw Late. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Fri Night...N Winds 5 Kt...Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
Sun...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft...Building To 4 Ft. Rain Likely .
Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming W 5 Kt. Waves 4 Ft... Subsiding To 1 To 2 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
845pm EST Wednesday Feb 8 2023

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will lift into the Great Lakes tomorrow. A weak cold front will move across the area tomorrow night. An additional area of low pressure will approach the area from the south on Sunday, with high pressure building in thereafter.

Near Term - Through Tonight
No major changes to the forecast tonight. Radar shows showers moving into the WV portion of the Allegheny Front with additional showers developing over southwest Virginia. Have adjusted cldcvr, POPs, and Ts/Tds based on latest trends. Previous discussion follows... As we move into tonight, attention will turn to a potent shortwave currently evident on water vapor imagery across North Texas/Oklahoma. This shortwave is forecast to rapidly lift off to the northeast into the Mid-Mississippi tonight, taking on a negative tilt as it does so. Rapid cyclogenesis will ensue in response, with the resultant area of low pressure tracking into central IL by late tonight. While this system will remain far away through the nighttime hours, an initial push of warm/moist advection well in advance of the main low may lead to the development of a few showers tonight, especially across the Potomac Highlands and northern MD. Elsewhere, clouds will be on the increase, but conditions should remain mostly dry. Temperatures overnight will remain mild by February standards, with lows in the upper 30s and 40s.

Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
Adjusted POPs based on latest hi-res guidance. Have blended temps on the higher side of NBM guidance despite abundant cldcvr and potential for a few showers in coordination with neighboring WFOs. Previous discussion follows... Low pressure will continue to deepen tomorrow as it lifts into the Great Lakes. A strong low-level jet will develop to the east of the low and push into our area tomorrow afternoon. Wind Advisories are in effect along the Allgheny Front tomorrow afternoon, where some of this higher momentum air may be able to mix down in south-southwesterly flow. The Blue Ridge may also come close to Wind Advisory criteria within south-southwesterly flow, but we've decided to hold off on issuing Wind Advisories for them at the moment, as confidence currently remains too low. Elsewhere, it will be a breezy day, but winds aren't expected to reach Wind Advisory criteria. South-southwesterly flow will transport well above normal temperatures into the area, with most locations climbing into the 60s once again. Skies will be mostly cloudy, and there will also be a chance for a few passing showers.

The aforementioned area of low pressure will lift into southern Canada tomorrow night, dragging a weak cold front across the forecast area. Wind Advisories continue through tomorrow night along the Allegheny Front within this cold advection regime. Wind Advisories may eventually need to be extended a tier of zones further east Thursday night to include the corridor from CBE to W99. These locations aren't likely to get the strongest gusts during the day Thursday within the warm advection regime/south-southwesterly flow, but may have winds pick up in cold advection/downslope westerly flow. Since the period of cold advection/westerly winds is still more than 24 hours out, we've decided to hold off on issuing Wind Advisories for those locations, but we'll continue to assess that potential through the remainder of the day. The combination of cool/dry advection at low levels and a dry slot moving in aloft should bring precipitation to an end, with the exception of a few upslope showers along the Allegheny Front.

We'll remain in southwesterly flow aloft on Friday as a positively tilted trough approaches from the west. Skies should remain mostly cloudy downstream of the trough, but temperatures will continue to run well above normal with highs in the 50s and 60s (40s mountains).

Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
Have added the Alleghenies and Piedmont to the Slight Risk in the Winter Storm Threat Matrix (see weather.gov/lwx/winter) for the potential for wintry precipitation Sunday. Will continue to monitor. Previous discussion follows... The long term begins with a strong upper level trough digging across the Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Recent model runs have the trough digging deeper and moving slower bringing impacts later in the weekend. Saturday will be mild with high temperatures in the 40s for most (30s at higher elevations) and clouds clearing in the afternoon, and breezy conditions throughout the day. As the trough approaches from the west, a cutoff low develops over the southeast and begins moving up the east coast. There is still a good bit of model uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of the cutoff low.

Model guidance is trending slower with precipitation reaching the forecast area early Sunday and persisting throughout the day. As far a wintry precipitation, model guidance is showing temperatures staying above freezing east of the Blue Ridge. Those along and west of the Blue Ridge have the highest chances of seeing snow, but cold air aloft could infiltrate heavy precipitation bringing some snow to the rest of the area. With this event being five days away, it's too early to tell in the way of wintry precipitation. We will continue to monitor this system as it gets closer.

Current guidance shows the cutoff low exiting the area into the Atlantic by Monday afternoon, but it's too early to say with the slower trend in guidance. Upper level ridging will build over the area in the wake of the area of low pressure brining warmer and more mild conditions.

Marine
Light easterly winds are expected tonight, before winds turn out of the south tomorrow. Winds should reach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels in southerly flow tomorrow afternoon, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds likely continuing through at least a portion of tomorrow night. Additional low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level gusts may be possible on Friday into Friday night within northwesterly flow.

Northerly winds on Saturday and Sunday will likely be SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. Winds will be strongest Sunday afternoon gusting between 20 and 30 knots.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
A persistent southerly breeze has substantially increased tidal anomalies over the past 24 hours, with some points in the Potomac reaching action stage.

A lull in tidal anomalies is anticipated in the wake of a frontal passage today which will push tides south in northwest flow. However, flow quickly turns southerly again by Thursday into Friday ahead of the next system. This will increase anomalies once again, likely taking a few spots into action stage.

Climate
Well above normal temperatures are forecast across the area from today through Friday this week. It's possible several daily record highs and warm minimum records are neared.

Below is a list of daily record highs for February 10

Climate Site Feb 10 Washington-National (DCA) 68F (1960) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 63F (2001) Baltimore (BWI) 66F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 65F (1959) Annapolis (NAK)* 63F (1960) Hagerstown (HGR)* 62F (2001) Charlottesville (CHO)* 72F (1932)

Below is a list of daily record warm minimums February 10

Climate Site Feb 10 Washington-National (DCA) 53F (1925) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 41F (2020) Baltimore (BWI) 49F (1925) Martinsburg, WV (MRB) 40F (2020) Annapolis (NAK)* 44F (1960) Hagerstown (HGR)* 48F (1960) Charlottesville (CHO)* 49F (1925)

*records are not officially issued for these stations.

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...Wind Advisory from 11am Thursday to 7am EST Friday for MDZ001. VA...Wind Advisory from 11am Thursday to 7am EST Friday for VAZ503. WV...Wind Advisory from 11am Thursday to 7am EST Friday for WVZ501-505.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 1pm to 6pm EST Thursday for ANZ530>543.