Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of The Overnight...E Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Today...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Mon...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1036am EDT Sat Oct 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Frost Advisory expired. Coastal Flood Advisories were issued for Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, and King George Counties through this afternoon's high tide. Minimal changes are needed to the forecast, but will be evaluating the extent of frost/freeze products needed for tonight. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Frost or freezing temperatures are possible in many areas tonight and Sunday night. - 2) Dry weather continues through next week along with generally seasonable temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost or freezing temperatures are possible in many areas tonight and Sunday night. With a large area of Canadian high pressure building overhead through the weekend, conditions are favorable for radiational cooling (light to calm winds, mainly clear skies and a cool background airmass). At the moment, it is unclear which night will be the coldest, although tonight (Saturday night) will have a slight advantage given the position of the high overhead. The growing season for 2026 has ended along and west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains, but continues east of there. Any headlines for frost/freeze conditions will only be issued where the growing season remains active. For tonight, more widespread cold (possible frost/freeze) conditions are possible as high pressure settles more directly overhead. This would bring the frost/freeze threat for most areas outside the major urban centers (downtown DC/Baltimore) and immediate shore of the Chesapeake Bay. If the colder guidance verifies, then the growing season may end for more areas west of I-95 come early Sunday morning. The high will remain overhead through Monday morning, and while the low-level airmass doesn't change appreciably, temperatures will start warming aloft. Therefore frost/freeze coverage may be more limited Sunday night, but still a risk in low lying areas. Did not make appreciable changes to the previous min temperature forecasts, which are near or below the coldest guidance which performs best in radiational cooling (MOS, NBM 10 percentile and Canadian Regional). KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather continues through next week along with generally seasonable temperatures. Canadian high pressure will continue to prevail overhead over the next several days as upper-level ridging builds in from the west. As this ridging tracks east, a dry backdoor cold front will move through Tuesday and into Wednesday, with winds shifting northeasterly in the wake of the front. With PWATs (Precipitable Waters) remaining low through this period, no precipitation is anticipated as this front moves through. As this surface high pressure continues on, temperatures remain seasonable, with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows could gradually increase somewhat throughout the week as this high pressure persists, with skies remaining mostly clear throughout the week. A few models hint at this high pressure breaking down towards the end of next week as a weak trough begins to form over the Ohio River Valley next Thursday. Regardless, expect continued dry and seasonable conditions to continue at least through the next several days as the current pattern remains largely unchanged. Marine High pressure will build overhead this weekend. Winds will vary a bit from northeast to southeast, but at light speeds less than 10 knots. Winds stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria Monday. A dry backdoor cold front passing through could bring wind gusts near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria on Tuesday before diminishing again overnight. Westerly winds Monday shift northerly Tuesday, then easterly Wednesday in the wake of the front. Tides / Coastal Flooding Generally light but steady east to southeast winds are expected to keep water levels elevated through the weekend. When paired with high astronomical tides due to the upcoming full moon on October 26, additional rounds of minor tidal flooding are possible. Given the steady anomalies this morning, Coastal Flood Advisories were issued for Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, and King George Counties. St. Marys/Straits Point, Alexandria, and Harford/Havre de Grace may be close to reaching minor flood stage. Guidance does show a more notable decline in water levels by Monday when flow finally turns westerly. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to 8pm EDT this evening for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for MDZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for MDZ018. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for VAZ057. WV...None. Marine None. |
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