Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of This Afternoon...S Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Until Late Afternoon. Waves 2 Ft. Showers.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 Kt...Becoming Se. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
317pm EST Wednesday Nov 25 2020
High pressure will retreat offshore later today, allowing low pressure to track into the Great Lakes later tonight into Thanksgiving Day. High pressure will regain control Friday through the weekend, before a more potent storm system moves into the area on Monday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
High clouds are thickening this afternoon in advance of a system approaching from the west. Currently, the main mid-upper level shortwave and attendant surface low are located over southern Illinois. The main belt of warm advection precipitation is located several hundred miles ahead of the surface low, extending from the Great Lakes, through the Ohio Valley, and eventually all the way to the Gulf Coast. Through tonight, the system will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes. As it does so, the main band of precipitation will progress through our area during the overnight hours. Precipitation totals aren't expected to be overly impressive, with generally between a quarter and a half of an inch in most spots. With cloud cover, rain, and southerly flow, temperatures should stay warm compared to previous nights, with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
The aforementioned area of low pressure will continue to lift off to the northeast tomorrow. Lingering showers will remain possible during the early morning hours, but most of the activity should lift out by mid-late morning. Skies should clear out to the west of the Blue Ridge during the afternoon hours, but questions remain surrounding how long low clouds will remain in place to the east of the Blue Ridge. Exactly when skies clear out will have a bearing on the temperatures tomorrow. Places that get several hours of sunshine should make a run at 70 degrees tomorrow afternoon, with locations elsewhere holding in the 60s.
High pressure will start to build in from the west tomorrow night. Conditions will remain precipitation free tomorrow night, along with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Temperatures tomorrow night will bottom out in the 40s. High pressure will remain in control on Friday, leading to a mix of sun and clouds, light winds, and highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
For the start of the weekend, a brief high pressure overhead for Saturday with clouds starting to increase by the afternoon and evening with a northwest flow. A few models initiate a few upslope showers along and west of the Allegheny Front but otherwise conditions remain dry. That high pressure will migrate off the coast by early Sunday. We'll see clear skies for the remainder of the weekend as a large area of high pressure building in from the west will dominate the area before moving off the coast by the early evening hours on Sunday. This will allow for increased cloud coverage across the area for Sunday night into early Monday. Model guidance has a spread in initial rainfall by about 6-8 hours for early Monday morning into the early afternoon.
This system brings a bit of uncertainty at this time. An upper level low associated with a surface low will move across the area Monday into Tuesday. PWAT (Precipitable Water) values are 1"+ for the duration of the event so flooding impacts are possible. The track and timing of the surface low will dictate impacts for the area. Wintry precipitation chances are non- zero at this time but location of the low will play a pivotal role in our wintry/rain set-up for this system.
Low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected over the waters today in southerly flow ahead of a system approaching from the west. These southerly winds may decrease a bit this evening before picking up again overnight. Winds should drop to sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels by tomorrow afternoon, and remain sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) as high pressure builds in on Friday.
SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) not expected Saturday and Sunday with high pressure overhead. We'll see winds start to increase out of the NW by Sunday night ahead of a low pressure system.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for ANZ531>533- 539>541. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Thursday for ANZ534-537- 543.