Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of The Overnight...W Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Tue...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
|Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers Likely.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
402am EST Sat Feb 22 2020
High pressure will build into the region through the weekend, pushing offshore Sunday night. Low pressure will track into the Ohio Valley late Monday into Tuesday, with another area of low pressure and its associated cold front crossing the region toward the middle portion of next week.
Near Term - Through Sunday
Temperatures have cooled off into the upper teens and low 20s early this morning beneath clear skies. Warm advection is ongoing just above the surface, so we've developed quite the inversion. After the sun comes up, that inversion mix out fast, allowing temperatures to rebound quickly. Highs today will be in the low-mid 50s for most today, with 40s across the higher terrain. Near 100 percent sunshine is expected, and winds will be light out of the WSW.
We'll continue in a similar pattern through tonight and tomorrow, with northwesterly flow at mid-upper levels and high pressure in control at the surface. Skies will remain clear, and winds will go light or calm as the high crests overhead. Temperatures should drop rapidly after sunset, but lows will be slightly warmer than the preceding night with slightly warmer air working in aloft. Overnight lows will be in the 20s for most, with 30s in downtown DC and Baltimore.
The high will slowly slide offshore on Sunday, allowing winds to switch around to light out of the south. Skies will initially be sunny, but a few high clouds may begin to work in by late in the afternoon. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid-upper 50s.
Short Term - Sunday Night Through Monday Night
A mid-level shortwave and associated weak area of low pressure at the surface will track from the center of the country toward the Ohio Valley Sunday Night into Monday. Compared to previous model runs, this system looks weaker, and 00z guidance has backed off on rainfall for Monday.
High clouds should start to stream in well in advance of the system Sunday Night, but no precipitation is expected. Lows will be in the 30s. Clouds will continue to thicken through the day Monday as the aforementioned system approaches from the southwest. Given the trends in the 00z guidance, have significantly lowered chances for rain compared to the previous forecast package. We're now only forecasting around a 20 percent chance of precipitation in the metro areas on Monday afternoon, and if trends continue, even that may need to be removed. A slightly stronger push of warm advection will ensue Monday Night, sparking off chances for showers. Rainfall amounts will be light with this shower activity.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
Rain is likely on Tuesday in overrunning setup as low pressure tracks west of the area and weakens. A second and stronger area of low pressure will track across the region Wednesday night with showers and possible thunderstorms. Strong post-frontal winds of 35-45 mph will develop Thu as low pressure intensifies northeast of the area. Modified Arctic air will follow behind this low pressure system for Thu and Fri with high temperatures about 10F degs below normal. Minor accumulating snowfall is possible over the Appalachians Wednesday night into Thu.
Sunny skies and light winds are expected over the waters this weekend. Winds will be light out of the southwest today and tonight, before switching around to light out of the south on Sunday as high pressure moves offshore.
Next chance for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is Wednesday night into Thursday with gale conditions possible on Thursday.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.