Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

SUN

S
WINDS
5 KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ533 Forecast Issued: 745 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Tonight...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Scattered Showers And Tstms This Evening.
Sun...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Tue Night...S Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.
Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. Showers And Tstms Likely Through The Night.
Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
250pm EDT Sat July 13 2024

Synopsis
A slow moving boundary will weaken and move further east later today. High pressure builds over the SE CONUS Sunday though Wednesday of next week, bringing a return of hot and humid conditions locally. A cold front approaches Wednesday before passing through Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure approaches the area late next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Today starts a warming trend. Highs today are expected to rise into the upper 80s to low 90s for most areas east of the Alleghenies where upper 70s to low 80s will be more common. By tonight, lows will drop down into the 60s west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, with 70s further east with mostly dry conditions expected.

In terms of rain chances this afternoon, coverage looks to be isolated to widely scattered at best. Overall consensus from CAMs is the best shot of convection is generally along/west of the Blue Ridge, with some guidance bringing showers towards US-15 by sunset or so. The showers or storms do not appear to be hazardous, but rather beneficial rain.

Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
Upper ridge will settle near the region by Sunday, allowing hot and humid conditions to build back into the area. Highs are expected to soar into the mid to even upper 90s during the day. With the Bermuda high in place, dewpoints will be limited into the mid to upper 60s, allowing heat indices to only get to the upper 90s to low 100s during the afternoon and early evening hours. Cannot completely rule out heat advisories for some of our eastern areas but confidence is low at this time in this coming to fruition. Additionally with the heat and humidity return allows for some isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Lows Sunday night will fall back into the upper 60s out west to mid to upper 70s closer to the waters with decreasing precipitation chances.

By Monday, the Bermuda high starts to break down more, allowing for increasing moisture and dewpoints rising into the low 70s for some areas east of the Blue Ridge mainly. High temperatures may be a few degrees warmer than Sunday, with some areas reaching triple digits. Have issued an Excessive Heat Watch for all areas east of the Blue Ridge and in the northern Shenandoah Valley into central Maryland. Heat indices up to 105-110F are likely in the watch area. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible for the afternoon and evening hours. There will be some uncertainty leading up to these showers and storm chances with remnant convection coming down from mainly the Ohio Valley. Will be worth monitoring if any days at the beginning of next week necessitate closer eyes for strong to severe storms possible.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Saturday
A hot and humid air mass persists over the area with the potential for another triple digit degree day on Tuesday. Forecast 850-mb temperatures rise into the 22-24C range which dry adiabatically mixed to the surface carry highs to around 100 to 102 degrees. With dew points rising into the upper 60s to low 70s, heat indices would more than qualify for additional heat products. Little to no relief can be had at night either with forecast low temperatures well into the 70s, locally near 80 degrees inside D.C. and Baltimore. Given the degree of heating and moisture in the atmosphere, there will be an inherent risk for showers and thunderstorms. However, the better chance for a more concentrated risk of severe thunderstorms would come on Wednesday with the cold front.

Ahead of this front, additional cloud cover likely overspreads the area. This should help lower temperatures a tad, but with elevated humidity levels as dew points are forecast to be in the low to perhaps mid 70s. Will continue to monitor the situation for any additional heat products that may eventually be necessary. Given the approach of a seasonably strong cold front, expect an increasing risk for strong to severe thunderstorms. With a slower trend in the guidance, a threat for organized convection may loom into Wednesday night as well. As usual, there is a lot of uncertainty in how the convective threat evolves.

This frontal system settles south and east of the region on Thursday into Friday. Its close proximity to the local area will maintain some threat of overrunning showers and thunderstorms. The post-frontal air mass should certainly be cooler owing to a mainly north to northeasterly winds. Daily highs through Friday should be in the 80s, possibly nearing 90 degrees by next Saturday.

Marine
Expect winds to dissipate further as the frontal boundary continues to move further offshore through the early afternoon hours.

Sunday, winds will turn more southwesterly earlier in the day and the southerly by the evening hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase slightly by Monday, with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) possible over portion of the waters.

Southerly channeling effects may lead to some Small Craft Advisories Tuesday evening through much of Wednesday. Additionally, the hot and humid air mass will promote increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday appears to provide the best opportunity for severe caliber thunderstorms. This could make for some hazardous conditions across the waterways. Special Marine Warnings may be required for some of these storms.

Climate
Here are some daily high temperature records during the July 15-17 timeframe next week.

Records (RERs) are only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other sites are shown for reference. A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.

***MONDAY, JULY 15TH, 2024*** LOCATION RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST Washington-National (DCA) 100F (1988) 101F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 98F (1995) 100F Baltimore (BWI) 102F (1995) 101F Martinsburg (MRB) 107F (1936) 98F Charlottesville (CHO) 102F (1954) 99F Annapolis (NAK) 101F (1995) 98F Hagerstown (HGR) 102F (1954) 98F

***TUESDAY, JULY 16TH, 2024*** LOCATION RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST Washington-National (DCA) 104F (1988) 101F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 104F (1988) 101F Baltimore (BWI) 104F (1988) 101F Martinsburg (MRB) 107F (1988) 100F Charlottesville (CHO) 102F (1988) 100F Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997)+ 98F Hagerstown (HGR) 104F (1988) 100F

***WEDNESDAY, JULY 17TH, 2024*** LOCATION RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST Washington-National (DCA) 102F (1980) 97F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 100F (1997)+ 97F Baltimore (BWI) 101F (1988) 97F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1988)+ 94F Charlottesville (CHO) 100F (1988)+ 97F Annapolis (NAK) 100F (1900) 94F Hagerstown (HGR) 100F (1953)+ 95F

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for DCZ001. MD...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508. VA...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for VAZ027>031-037>040-050-051-053>057-501-502- 505-506-526-527. WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for WVZ051>053.