Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of This Afternoon...Nw Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. Showers Likely With Isolated Tstms.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 35 Kt... Diminishing To 20 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming S With Gusts To 20 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
336pm EDT Sat May 8 2021
A weak area of high pressure will build overhead tonight. Low pressure will track just to our north and west tomorrow into tomorrow night, eventually dragging a cold front through the area on Monday. High pressure will build back in toward the middle of the week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
A mid-upper level trough is in the process of moving through the area currently. Daytime heating beneath the trough has sparked the development of many showers and weak thunderstorms across the northeastern half of the area. With limited instability in place (a couple hundred J/Kg of CAPE) and unseasonably cold air aloft (freezing level around 4000 feet), many of these showers and storms are producing pea to dime size hail across the area. With the EL residing just above the -20 C level, charge separation and resultant thunder and lightning has occurred with the strongest cells. These showers and storms will lift off to the northeast along with the trough over the next couple of hours.
A weak area of high pressure will build in tonight, providing dry conditions to most of the area. However, clouds will begin to stream in ahead of the next system approaching from the west. As warm advection ensues overnight, showers may make it into far western portions of the area prior to daybreak. These showers may even mix with a little bit of snow along the highest ridgetops.
Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
A shortwave and associated surface low will track from the Mississippi Valley toward the Mason-Dixon Line tomorrow into tomorrow night. A strong push of warm advection will ensue at low levels in advance of this area of low pressure, but precipitation will be limited with a very dry antecedent airmass in place. Winds will turn southerly, and a warm front will lift through our area at the surface. This will lead to a wide variety of temperatures tomorrow afternoon, with highs ranging from the upper 50s along the Mason-Dixon Line to the low to mid 70s from central VA to southern MD. Most of the day should remain cloudy and dry, but chances for showers will exist across the northwestern half of the forecast area.
Low pressure will track off to our northeast tomorrow night, but the system's cold front will be slow to progress on through the area with flow aloft paralleling the front. Chances for showers will linger to the south of the front. The front should clear most of the forecast area by daybreak on Monday, with northwesterly flow moving in at the surface behind the front. However, the front may get hung up over central Virginia. If this happens, thunderstorms (potentially strong to severe) may be possible to the south of the front, but most of the area is expected to remain dry.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
High latitude blocking continues into next week with a ridge positioned over the central Canadian provinces with lower heigheights off to the east. On Tuesday morning, a positively-tilted trough will emerge from the Great Lakes with seasonably strong height falls tracking through the northeastern U.S. thereafter. 1000-500 mb thicknesses drop to around 540 dm in response to this trough thereby ushering in another chilly air mass. Some period of gusty northwesterly winds are likely in the wake. A strong dome of high pressure approaches from the west setting the stages for a chilly night. From Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, there is the potential for widespread frost from the Blue Ridge/Catoctin Mountains westward. Higher elevations of the Allegheny Front may see freezing temperatures leading to possible agricultural impacts.
Continued sunshine will extend into the middle of next week with highs generally staying in the 60s. The upper trough responsible for the below average temperatures should eventually move offshore by Thursday with split flow setting up farther upstream. There are some hints of phasing in the GFS/GEFS solutions, but not all global models are on board at this point. Will maintain a chance for precipitation, but confidence is low until the pattern can iron itself out. The general consensus in the ensembles is for the heavy rainfall signal to be from southern Virginia down into the southeastern U.S. However, will continue to monitor future model cycles for any trends or stronger signals. After this system exits into the western Atlantic, conditions should dry out to finish out the work week. Global ensembles favor continued northwesterly flow aloft into next weekend which would support near to below average temperatures.
SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are in effect today, and extend into tonight for portions of the waters. Special Marine Warnings are also in effect for gusts to around/just over 35 knots with showers and weak thunderstorms moving over the waters. Small hail will also be possible with showers and storms that move over the waters this afternoon. Winds will drop off tomorrow morning, before picking back up again tomorrow afternoon in southerly flow as low pressure passes to our northwest. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) appear possible again on Monday in northwesterly flow behind the system's cold front.
Increasing northwesterly winds may require Small Craft Advisories for portions of Tuesday, perhaps into Wednesday depending on the timing of the trough passage.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Minor coastal flooding will be possible Monday morning as water levels rise on southerly winds ahead of frontal passage.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 3am EDT Sunday for ANZ531>533-536- 539>542. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ530- 535-538. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Sunday for ANZ534-537-543.