Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...E Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt... Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 Ft...Building To 4 Ft In The Afternoon. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 4 Ft... Subsiding To 2 Ft After Midnight.|
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Sun...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft...Building To 4 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain Through The Day, Then Rain Through The Night.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 3 Ft... Subsiding To 2 Ft After Midnight. Rain. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
937pm EDT Wednesday April 8 2020
A strong cold front moves will approach from the west tonight and cross the area on Thursday. Canadian high pressure will build in from the west Friday through Saturday before low pressure possibly impacts the area early next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
A weak boundary stretches has pushed just south of the region this evening. Dry conditions are expected into the early overnight, with mostly clear skies for the first half of the night in the wake of the front. Ongoing convective complex will likely be moving into the area after midnight. It will probably be in a weakening state, although there still could be some thunder and the damaging wind threat with it is non-zero. For most of the metro area, it should not be the biggest convective threat with this system, but in western Virginia and eastern West Virginia, it may be. Lows will remain fairly mild, with 50s common.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Friday Night
Dying convection from the west will spread across the CWA early in the morning Thursday, with sub-severe conditions likely in the metro. However, strong cold front will then be approaching from the west. With a brief surge of moisture/instability possible ahead of the boundary, a fine line of convection could develop along it just west of I-95. If such convection can grow, it will easily be able to tap into very strong winds aloft and bring them to the surface. However, the mesoscale details are still very uncertain at this time, limiting higher confidence in any severe threat. While convection will exit quickly, strong winds will be found in the wake of the front, with gusts of 45 mph or higher possible. Given potential for gusts to 50 mph, decided to issue wind advisory for the period during and immediately after frontal passage.
High pressure will build into our region through Friday but gusty winds will linger into Friday. A cooler air mass will arrive with temperatures running in the upper 40s and 50s with overnight lows in the 30s Friday night. As temps drop near freezing along with winds becoming light, there is potential that frost/freeze headlines may need to be issued for Friday night but there remains a lot of uncertainty at this time. In addition, upslope snow showers will be possible Thursday night into Friday which could produce a couple inches of accumulation.
Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
High pressure banked offshore Saturday will keep the region dry and seasonable. However, a potent low pressure system will develop over the Gulf of Mexico and track northeastward into our region late Sunday night into Monday. Monday, at this time, looks to be a complete washout as PWAT (Precipitable Water) anomalies are 2-2.5 sigma above normal based on guidance ensemble means. With that said, 1 to 1.5 inches of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast are quite plausible from this system. On a positive note, this will be a quick moving system, and should be out of our area by late Monday afternoon.
An active pattern continues on Tuesday as a large upper level low will continue to retrograde over the Great Lakes region. With the trough axis back through the Ohio River Valley, additional shortwaves will eject eastward into our CWA; resulting in additional showers on Tuesday. Weak high pressure returns for Wednesday and Thursday which should keep the region mostly dry with the exception of along the Allegheny Front where upslope showers are possible.
Light winds though the rest of tonight. A strong cold front will move through the waters on Thursday. Strong and gusty winds are expected along and behind the front. Gusts of 30 to 40 knots are expected. A Gale Warning has been issued for the Bay and Potomac. There could also be one or two rounds of convection that could require Special Marine Warnings during the morning and midday hours. Gusty winds will continue into Friday and Friday night, with the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) Thursday night likely needing to be extended. It may be close for gale conditions on the northern waters again Friday.
Dry conditions are expected both Saturday and Sunday. However gusty winds are plausible and therefore do foresee a chance for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) issuance both days.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Water levels remain around a foot above high tide and will stay steady state or rise a little through Thursday morning. Straits Point, Annapolis, and DC SW Waterfront may reach minor flood stage with the astronomically higher high tide late tonight/Thursday morning. Water levels will recede after that behind a strong front.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...Wind Advisory from 10am to 5pm EDT Thursday for DCZ001. MD...Wind Advisory from 10am to 5pm EDT Thursday for MDZ003>006- 011-013-014-503>508. VA...Wind Advisory from 10am to 5pm EDT Thursday for VAZ028-030- 031-053-054-501-505>508. WV...Wind Advisory from 10am to 5pm EDT Thursday for WVZ052-053.
Small Craft Advisory from 6pm Thursday to 6am EDT Friday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning from 9am to 6pm EDT Thursday for ANZ530>543.