Marine Weather Net

East of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank Marine Sanctuary Marine Forecast


TODAY

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ250 Forecast Issued: 425 AM EST Thu Feb 09 2023

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
Today...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt This Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers This Afternoon.
Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Patchy Fog. A Chance Of Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Fri Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.
Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Sun Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
Mon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
Mon Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
336am EST Thu Feb 9 2023

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks to our west/northwest across the Great Lakes and southern Canada today and tonight, bringing showers to our region. Windy and near record warmth for Friday before cooler and more seasonable temperatures return this weekend. Low pressure moving off the mid Atlantic coast is expected to remain well south of New England, but the northern extent of the precipitation shield may make it into portions of the region late Sunday into Monday. Above normal temperatures follow for much of next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
With cloud cover slow to move in overnight, areas of sunshine are likely this morning, especially across eastern MA. Clouds increase later this morning and this afternoon as a stacked low tracks well to our west and northwest over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario/Quebec. Given that we will be in the warm sector for this system, anticipating that spotty rain showers will begin across western MA and CT between 15-18Z. It is possible given considerable dry air currently in place, that some sleet falls for a few hours at precipitation onset across far western New England due to evaporative cooling in the column. With that said, anticipating a transition to all rain across our CWA (County Warning Area) by this afternoon.

LLJ of 40-55kt develops with a southwest to northeast orientation across our area later today and early this evening, and while it will provide enough lift to generate some heavier showers in our region, the best forcing for widespread, stratiform precipitation remains well to our north across northern New England. Anticipating that showers will produce between 0.1-0.25" Quantitative Precipitation Forecast north of the MA Turnpike through about 06Z Friday morning. Areas south of the Pike may see little no precipitation initially given the track of the low continues to trend slightly northward, resulting in spotty to patchy showers across RI, SE MA, and portions of CT this evening. Several HREF members show the possibility of a more organized line of precipitation moving across southern New England between 00-06Z, which may be the best shot for appreciable precipitation south of the MA Pike. Low pressure moves northeast quickly on before dawn on Friday with most guidance indicating showers will come to an end between 03-06Z. All HREF ensemble member reflectivities show showers coming to an end by 12Z.

We will see temperatures warming well into the upper 40s to near 50 degrees though the 24 hour period ending ~7am Friday which will result in midnight (Thursday) highs for portions of our area. Winds will turn from the south to the southwest this evening/overnight, building from about 15 kt this afternoon to 25kt by sunrise Friday as cold air advection starts to kick in at the higher levels (925/850mb).

Short Term - Friday

With a cold front clearing the coast sometime Friday morning, anticipating clearing skies on westerly flow by Friday afternoon. Given the warm start to the day, surface temperatures will warm well into the 50s with a shot at 60F across the coastal plain and CT River Valley. Blustery winds will accompany the near record warmth Friday given deep mixing bringing gusts of 25-35kt to the surface thanks to increasing NW Cold Air Advection aloft. A few gusts to 40 kt are possible across the high terrain of the Berkshires and the Worcester hills. Confidence is too low in this gust potential to hoist a Wind Advisory, but future shifts may consider putting one in place if winds trend higher in future forecast updates.

Long Term - Friday Night Through Wednesday
* Dry with cooler/seasonable temps Sat & Sat night

* Some rain may impact the southern half of the region late Sunday into part of Monday with lower risk of rain or mixed precipitation further north

* Above normal temps much of next week

Details... Friday night... Dry & chillier weather return to the region Friday night. This in response to modest cold advection on a stiff westerly breeze behind the earlier cold frontal passage. Low temps will still be above normal though for this time of year...generally bottoming out in the upper 20s to the lower 30s by daybreak.

Saturday and Saturday night... Upper trough crosses the region Sat morning...followed by dry northwest flow. This should result in dry and cooler/more seasonable temperatures Sat & Sat night. High temps Sat will mainly be in the upper 30s and lower 40s with a bit of a northwest breeze. A ridge of high pressure builds over the region Sat night which should allow for a good night of radiational cooling. Low temps should mainly be in the teens in the suburbs with 20s in the urban centers.

Sunday into Monday... The main concern will be the track of a moisture loaded southern stream system Sunday into Mon. Given the lack of amplification of the northern branch of the jet...this system will likely pass near or southeast of the Benchmark. However...downstream ridging coupled with this being a southern streamer may allow for some of the precipitation to advance northward into parts of our region. The greatest risk for this will be across our southern sections especially near the south coast later Sunday into the first half of Mon. Despite being on the northwest side of this system...the lack of antecedent cold air would favor mainly rain near the south coast. If the precipitation is able to make it further north...the potential for some wintry mix being involved would increase. The EPS/GEFS still show considerable spread in the northwest extent of the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shield...but greatest risk remains towards the south coast.

Tuesday and Wednesday... The EPS/GEFS and CMC ensembles indicate upper trough over the western states with southwest flow/above normal height fields in the east. This should result in above normal temps across our region Tuesday into Wed. This should result in a good chance that many locations break 50 on Tuesday and/or Wed.

Marine
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Thursday... NW flow gradually shifts to the south and builds through the day Thursday. Winds remain below small craft thresholds. Seas gradually build to near 5 feet again.

Thursday night...SW winds increasing to 15-20kt gusting 25 to 30 kt. Seas build to 5 to 7 ft for the outer waters. Borderline Gale Force winds are possible across the waters Thursday evening and overnight but confidence is low in widespread gusts exceeding thresholds.

Friday... SW flow gradually shift to the west as gusty conditions persist through the day.Winds subside to between 20-25kt by 00Z Saturday, but seas remain near 5 ft, prompting extended SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) across all waters.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Small crafts most likely to persist across the outer waters due to wave action.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Small crafts most likely to persist across the outer waters due to wave action.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain, patchy fog.

Monday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Climate
Record Maximum Temps for Fri 2/10... Boston 60/1990 Hartford 55/1909 Providence 58/1909 Worcester 55/1909

NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7pm EST Friday for ANZ230>237-251. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Saturday for ANZ250-254>256.