Marine Weather Net

East of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank Marine Sanctuary Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

W
WINDS
35 - 40
KNOTS

TUE

W
WINDS
30 - 40
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

W
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

WED

W
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ250 Forecast Issued: 403 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
Tonight...W Winds 35 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 55 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. Wave Detail: W 11 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. Occasional Freezing Spray.
Tue...W Winds 30 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: W 10 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 11 Seconds. Freezing Spray.
Tue Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: W 9 Ft At 6 Seconds. Freezing Spray.
Wed...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Nw 6 Ft At 6 Seconds, Becoming W 4 Ft At 5 Seconds. Light Freezing Spray In The Morning.
Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds.
Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: N 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Snow In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. A Chance Of Light Freezing Spray After Midnight. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less, Increasing To 1 To 3 Nm After Midnight.
Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Light Freezing Spray.
Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Light Freezing Spray.
Sat And Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
612pm EST Monday Feb 17 2025

Synopsis
Very strong winds continue tonight into Tuesday afternoon before subsiding Wednesday. Colder than normal temperatures expected early in the week with highs in the 20s and wind chill index near or below zero. Still monitoring a potential coastal storm that may bring us another chance of snow later in the week, but guidance continues to favor an offshore miss.

Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
Key Points

* Strong to damaging winds continue into tonight * Bitterly cold wind chill values between 0F and -15F

The low-pressure system that crossed over SNE yesterday bombed out into a 958mb low per the 18z WPC surface analysis. This is the anomalously strong low-pressure system that is the driver for the 60- 70mph winds observed across Massachusetts today. Not much reprieve from the wind tonight as the pressure gradient remains tight. 850 mb winds tonight remain around 50-60 knots (roughly 60-70mph). Even without diurnal heating, Cold Air Advection will still promote mixing enough mixing to allow for gusts of 45-55mph to continue overnight. Overnight lows drop into the low teens to single digits, which, combined with the strong winds, will make it feel like 0F to -15F below zero. Opted to issue a Cold Weather Advisory for high terrain in the Berks and northern Worcester Hills. HREF shows 80-100% probs of -15F wind chills, with low probs of 0-20% for -25F wind chills.

Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Tuesday Night
Key Points

* Strong winds again Tuesday, finally weakening Tuesday evening * Bitterly cold all day with wind chill values between +5F and -5F

850mb LLJ remains strong Tuesday morning at 50-60 knots but begins to weaken Tuesday afternoon to 40-50 knots. With mostly sunny skies expected again, mixing potential should reach, if not exceed, the 850mb level again. Bufkit sounds show up to 55 knots at the top of the mixed layer. Opted to extend the current wind headlines, even if gusts are quite as strong as Monday, expecting 45-55mph gusts to continue through Tuesday afternoon. Future shifts may opt to downgrade the High Wind Warning to a Wind Advisory after the threat of 60-70mph winds ends. High temperatures on Tuesday will struggle to top 20s across the interior, with low 20s near the coasts. The windchill index stays near 0F on Tuesday, making it feel bitterly cold out.

The 850mb LLJ finally dissipates Tuesday night, but it will still be blustery with gusts of 20-40mph continuing. Very cold again with lows in the single digits to low teens and wind chill index in between 0F and -15F again. Cold weather headlines may be needed for the high terrain once again.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
Key Messages:

* Calmer winds, but frigid temps Wednesday night.

* Coastal low looks to track south of southern New England Thurs/Fri... could see some snow across the Cape and Islands

Wednesday/Wednesday night... The pressure gradient will continue to relax throughout Wednesday, leading to surface winds dropping off significantly... possibly even pushing gusts below 10mph by Wednesday night. Daytime temps look to moderate slightly as a weak upper-level ridge builds, with highs in the mid to upper 20s. Overnight temps look to continue to trend on the colder side... single digits possible across the interior and northern MA, low to mid teens across RI and southeast MA, and near 20 for the far eastern Cape and Nantucket.

Thursday And Friday
Ensembles continue to indicate some impacts from a coastal low Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, but uncertainty in the track remains high. Steering flow continues to indicate the low will remain further south across the mid-Atlantic; however, ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensembles are trending further north than the GFS, and Canadian ensemble guidance is trending the furthest east. Regardless, the Cape and Islands are likely to see at least 1" (>50% prob across ECMWF, GFS, and GEM) of snow by Friday morning.

Saturday through Monday... Another weak, upper-level ridge looks to move into the area Saturday, bringing calmer weather and daytime temps in the mid-to- upper 30s. Possibly could be another low moving up the coast for the start of the week bringing wintry precip, but will continue monitoring as this week progresses.

Marine
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Moderate confidence.
Very Dangerous Marine Conditions continue tonight with westerly wind gusts between 40-50 knots in the southerly waters and 50-60 knots in the northern waters. Seas in the open waters continue to climb to 10-15 feet, while Cape Cod Bay, and the sounds will see waves of 5 to 8 feet. With the Arctic airmass now moving over the waters and temperatures dropping into the 20s, moderate freezing spray will become a concern starting this evening through Wednesday morning. Freezing Spray advisory remains in effect for all near and off shore waters.

Winds hardly relent Tuesday with gusts of 40-50 knots likely. Winds finally begin to diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday to 20-30 knots.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of freezing spray.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of snow.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of snow, chance of freezing spray. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...Wind Advisory until 5pm EST Tuesday for CTZ002>004. MA...Wind Advisory until 5pm EST Tuesday for MAZ003-005>007- 010>024. High Wind Warning until 5pm EST Tuesday for MAZ002-004-008- 009-026. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10am EST Tuesday for MAZ002-004-008-009-026. RI...Wind Advisory until 5pm EST Tuesday for RIZ001>008.

Marine
Storm Warning until 4am EST Tuesday for ANZ230-231-250-251- 254. Freezing Spray Advisory until 10am EST Wednesday for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. Gale Warning until 10pm EST Tuesday for ANZ232>237. Gale Warning until 4am EST Wednesday for ANZ255-256.