East of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank Marine Sanctuary Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Se 25 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Patchy Fog. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Patchy Fog. A Chance Of Rain. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Sun And Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Mon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Light Freezing Spray.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Light Freezing Spray.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1241am EST Fri Feb 26 2021
Diminishing winds and chillier tonight through Friday as high pressure builds in from the west. Mainly rain is expected on Saturday, but a brief period of snow is possible at the onset across portions of interior southern New England. Dry weather follows Saturday night into Sunday morning, but a bit more rain is possible later Sunday into Sunday evening especially towards the south coast. Mainly dry weather is expected for the first half of the next work week, but a brief shot of windy and very cold weather is expected later Monday into Tuesday.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
1240am and 10pm Updates... No changes in the latest update. Forecast still looks on track.
Discussion from 7 PM... No changes were made to the forecast as it is largely on track this evening. At this time, gusty wind persist across much of the interior but winds will diminish overnight. If winds diminish more quickly than predicted, radiational cooling, especially where snowpack is still present, may cause temperatures to fall slightly below the current forecast.
Update from 4 PM... Winds continue to gust out of the northwest behind the cold front that moved through the region last night. Pressure gradient will relax overnight as high pressure begins to build over southern New England. Overnight lows in the teens and 20s.
Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Saturday
* Gusty northwest winds diminish overnight * Chilly Friday, but with light winds/clear skies. * Brief period of snow early Saturday morning before transitioning to rain.
Gusty northwest winds behind a cold front that pushed through the region last night will diminish as high pressure builds in over southern New England this evening. The northwest winds will usher in drier air and clear skies, which with modest winds should allow for moderate radiational cooling overnight. With modest Cold Air Advection aloft as well, this setup will support low temperatures in the teens and 20s for most of southern New England tomorrow morning.
On Friday we'll begin to see northwest flow transition to westerly and eventually southwesterly as high pressure builds eastward. With high pressure and dry air in place, expecting mostly sunny skies tomorrow afternoon as well. Temperatures will be less mild than today and yesterday with highs topping out in the mid upper 30s, with some locations perhaps touching 40.
As high pressure quickly slides east of New England tomorrow evening, a weak low pressure system is expected to develop off the east coast in response to a short-wave trough propagating across the northeast. Although this will be a fairly weak/progressive system there will be enough moisture and forcing in place to produce precipitation in southern New England beginning early Saturday morning. Precip type may start as snow for portions of north/western MA and western CT early Saturday morning before transitioning to rain late morning/early afternoon Saturday. No significant accumulations are forecast prior to the transition. High terrain may see a coating to an inch before the transition to rainfall begins.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
Highlights... * Mainly rain Sat with a brief period of snow possible at the onset generally across the interior and areas north of the MA Turnpike
* Dry weather follows Sat night into Sunday AM, but a bit more rain possible later Sun/Sunday evening especially south of the MA Turnpike
* Brief shot of very cold air possible later Monday into Tue
Details... Saturday... A wave of low pressure will be tracking well to our north across Quebec on Saturday. While a weaker wave may develop near the south coast, the main system will act to flush out the remaining cold air across the region. So while a brief period of snow is possible in parts of the interior and locations north of the MA Turnpike at the onset, this will generally be a rain event as thermal profiles warm. A coating to 1 inch of snow may occur in this region with a low risk of up to 2 inches in northwest MA. Regardless, even in these locations Ptype will transition to all rain by Sat afternoon. Temperatures a bit tricky as most guidance suggest highs in the 40s to even near 50 across RI/SE MA. However, secondary wave indicated on the 3 KM NAM indicates shallow cool air may keep temps between 35 and 40 across parts of the interior all day. Will have to see as we come in range of the other high resolution guidance, but it is often correct in these type of cases. Lastly, fog is possible which may be locally dense in spots across the interior especially if a shallow inversion remains in place.
Saturday night through Sunday night... A weak ridge of high pressure builds into the region Sat night into Sunday morning bringing a return to dry weather. Will have to watch for some dense fog Saturday night into early Sunday AM. Otherwise, another weak wave of low pressure passing to our south may bring a period of rain later Sunday into Sunday evening. Best chance for this will be south of the MA Turnpike, based on the track of the system. Relatively mild temps continue with highs mainly in the 40s again on Sunday and perhaps near 50 across parts of RI/SE MA.
Monday and Tuesday... While dry weather should prevail, the long range guidance indicates a rather strong amplifying northern stream shortwave across eastern Canada into northern New England. This potentially will bring a shot of windy and very cold weather to our region sometime late Monday into Tue. While the exact magnitude of the cold remains to be seen, given overall progressive flow it should be short-lived.
Wednesday And Thursday
Uncertainty increases considerably in this portion of the forecast. There is a lot of spread among individual GEFS/EPS members and track of a potential low pressure system. Depending on how that evolves the threat for some rain and/or snow exists later Wed/Thu.
Gusty northwest winds will diminish this evening. Small craft advisory for the near-shore waters set to expire by 00Z Friday. Gusty winds/wave heigheights around 5 feet may persist through early tomorrow morning. Currently have small craft expiring for outer waters by 12Z tomorrow, but we may be able to drop them sooner. Light winds tomorrow as high pressure moves overhead before a weak low pressure system moves over the coastal waters Saturday morning/afternoon. Gusty winds behind this system may warrant SCY Saturday afternoon/evening.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less.
Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of rain showers.
Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.
Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST this morning for ANZ250- 254>256.