Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine, FL 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Monday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
725pm EDT Sunday July 3 2022
40pm EDT]... Near Term - Through Tonight
Scattered to numerous showers and storms started earlier than expected today by a couple hours, which may lead to an earlier end to precipitation this evening. Due to the earlier start, the east coast sea breeze didn't get the chance to move inland and remained pinned to the coast. This enhanced storms over the beaches this afternoon. Storms are now picking up over north central FL and will increase over coastal SE GA in the next couple hours as outflow boundaries collide with the sea breeze. Heavy rainfall and flooding remain the main concerns with storms today, but strong storms could produce strong wind gusts 40-50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. Convective coverage will begin decreasing early this evening, leading into mostly dry weather for the overnight period. Patchy fog will be possible once again late tonight into early Monday morning in areas that receive rainfall today. Low temperatures tonight will be similar to last night in the lower and middle 70s.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
The weather pattern will remain unchanged for the next few days with a high pressure ridge extending over the Florida peninsula from the Bermuda high to the east in the Atlantic. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected on Monday/Independence Day and Tuesday, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. Precipitation chances will be just slightly higher on Monday/Independence Day due to a weak trough axis extending just north of the area from coastal SC down into southwest GA. Sea breezes are expected to develop each day. Light southwesterly winds on Monday/Independence Day will allow the east coast sea breeze to move inland and merge with the Gulf coast sea breeze a bit west of the I-95 corridor. Light southerly winds on Tuesday will allow the sea breeze merger to occur further inland near the I-75 corridor.
The fireworks forecast for Monday/Independence Day is looking optimistic. Around 8 PM, precipitation chances are expected to be isolated over the eastern half of the forecast area and scattered over the western half. Be sure to monitor the latest forecast as we get closer to Monday evening, and stay weather aware. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!
Temperatures will be near normal Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows in the 70s.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday]... A stagnant weather pattern will persist with an upper level high centered to our west over the southern US and surface level ridging extending over the local area from the east. Humid, warm, and stormy weather will continue through the long term period. Wednesday and Thursday, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible with the highest precipitation chances over NE FL where sea breeze convergence will be strongest. Scattered precipitation chances may continue Thursday night through Friday as an upper level shortwave travels around the upper level high and moves southwest across the forecast area. This shortwave could provide upper level support for strong to severe storm development. Increasing precipitation chances are expected next weekend as a trough axis slides south down the east coast towards the area followed by a frontal boundary.
Temperatures through the long term period will trend near normal with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the 70s.
No marine hazards are expected through the work week. The weather pattern will remain fairly constant with a high pressure ridge extending over the local waters from the Bermuda high to the east in the Atlantic. Southwesterly winds will continue through Monday then shift to southerly. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the waters each day.
Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches through at least mid week.
Humid and stormy weather conditions will continue through Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible each day, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. The sea breeze will develop each day, and could enhance storms in the afternoon. Storms could bring locally heavy rainfall, variable gusty winds, and lightning. Transport winds will be light the next couple days, resulting in widespread low daytime dispersions inland on Monday/Independence Day and areas of low daytime dispersions inland on Tuesday. Patchy fog possible each morning, mainly in locations that received rainfall the day before.
Locally Heavy rainfall amounts are possible each afternoon through the holiday weekend with localized and urban flooding potential from slow moving thunderstorms over areas that received locally heavy rainfall the past couple of days.
NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AM...None.