Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine, FL 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 7 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds, Subsiding To 5 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds Late This Morning. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds. |
| Monday And Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds. |
| Tuesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds. |
| Tuesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. |
| Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. |
| Thursday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 556am EDT Sunday April 28 2024 Synopsis Issued at 411am EDT Sunday April 28 2024 Early morning surface analysis depicts gradually weakening high pressure (1030 millibars) situated off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with this feature continuing to wedge down the southeastern seaboard. To the south of this surface ridge, a weak coastal trough remains in place over our near shore Atlantic waters. Aloft...ridging remains situated along the U.S. eastern seaboard, while a large trough remains in place over the western half of the nation. This ridge overhead of our region continues to deflect potent shortwave troughs emerging from the lee side of the Rockies northeastward across the Plains states and the Upper Midwest. A tight local pressure gradient remains in place along the coast, where breezy onshore winds prevail, but less in the way of marine stratocumulus is advecting onshore due to the weakening of the coastal trough. Mostly high altitude cloudiness prevails over our region downstream of a weak, moisture starved shortwave that was progressing across the Deep South. Temperatures at 08Z ranged from the lower 60s for locations near the Altamaha/Ocmulgee Rivers in southeast GA to the lower 70s along the northeast FL coast, while dewpoints were uniformly in the upper 50s and lower 60s area-wide. Near Term (Today and Tonight) Issued at 411am EDT Sunday April 28 2024 High pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast will shift southward while gradually weakening today and will be positioned off the Carolina coast by this evening. This feature will keep a tight local pressure gradient in place today, keeping breezy onshore winds in place at coastal locations throughout the day, while breezy conditions spread inland by the mid to late morning hours. Meanwhile, weak shortwave troughing traversing the Deep South will flatten the ridge aloft that is currently overhead of our region, with this feature likely keeping a veil of high cloud cover in place through the mid to late afternoon hours. There should also be an uptick in marine stratocumulus advecting onshore this morning as what's left of the coastal trough breaks down and pushes inland, possibly generating a few isolated showers for coastal locations and the Interstate 95 corridor through this afternoon. Measurable rain chances will likely be confined to coastal locations south of St. Augustine, with coverage remaining isolated at best through this afternoon. Decreasing cloud cover late this afternoon and a slightly drier low level air mass filtering into our region will allow highs to climb to the low and mid 80s inland, while breezy onshore winds keep coastal highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Our local pressure gradient will relax overnight as skies clear out, allowing for radiational cooling to take place inland. A light onshore breeze will continue at coastal locations, keeping lows generally in the mid 60s. Lows at inland locations will fall to the mid and upper 50s, and some patchy radiation fog can be expected across inland portions of southeast GA during the predawn and early morning hours on Monday. .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 411am EDT Sunday April 28 2024 Surface high pressure remains parked in the Atlantic off the FL/GA coasts for early week. Subsidence and a dry airmass (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) < 1 inch) will continue dry conditions on Monday. South-southeasterly flow develops ushering in warm and moist air into the region. On Tuesday, an upper shortwave and its associated weakening front approach from the NW providing some forcing for ascent. There may be enough moisture to support a few showers moving into inland SE GA and developing along the afternoon sea breeze Tuesday afternoon into evening. Daytime highs will range from around 80 along the coast to the mid/upper 80s further inland. Long Term (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 411am EDT Sunday April 28 2024 Warm and mostly dry conditions prevail through the week as surface high pressure remains in the western Atlantic and ridging aloft builds back over the SE US. The diurnal sea breezes slowly shift inland each day but lack of moisture will hinder showers from developing along the boundaries. The next potential for rainfall appears to be Saturday as the next front approaches the region. Above normal temperatures expected with highs rising into the upper 80s/low 90s and overnight lows in the 60s. Marine Issued at 411am EDT Sunday April 28 2024 High pressure building southward towards the Carolina coastline this morning will gradually weaken as it becomes situated off the southeastern seaboard early this week. Small Craft Advisories continue offshore through this morning, with winds and seas subsiding back to Caution levels this afternoon. Small Craft should Exercise Caution if venturing through the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL today, where winds of 15-20 knots and seas of 4-6 feet will prevail today. A weak coastal trough may generate a few showers over our local waters today before this feature dissipates this evening. Breezy easterly winds and elevated seas will diminish tonight, with prevailing winds becoming southeasterly on Monday and then southerly on Tuesday. Seas of 3-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore by Tuesday. A weakening frontal boundary entering the southeastern states on Tuesday could develop isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Atlantic high pressure will then build westward from Bermuda later this week, resulting in prevailing southeasterly winds. Another frontal boundary will enter the southeastern states next weekend, possibly resulting in increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout our local waters. Rip Currents Breezy easterly winds and rough, elevated surf conditions will keep a high risk of rip currents in place today throughout our local waters. Onshore winds and only gradually diminishing surf will result in a moderate rip current risk at all area beaches on Monday and Tuesday. Hydrology Issued at 411am EDT Sunday April 28 2024 Moderate flooding will continue today along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near the Three Rivers Estates gauge. Water levels will fall back to minor flooding overnight tonight, with minor flooding then expected to continue into next weekend. Meanwhile, minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near the gauge at Hildreth through Tuesday, with water levels then expected to fall below flood stage by Tuesday night. Otherwise, minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Suwannee River from the gauge near Branford and points downstream through early portions of this week. NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT this morning for AMZ470-472- 474. |
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