Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine, FL 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 3 Feet At 5 Seconds And East 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Northwest 3 Feet At 4 Seconds And East 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Saturday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. Showers Likely. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Saturday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 4 Seconds And East 2 Feet At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Monday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northwest 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Building To 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 738am EDT Thu May 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Red Flag Warning for Locations East of U.S.-301 in Northeast & North Central FL this Afternoon & Evening. Gusty Southwesterly Winds will Combine with Low Humidity & Ongoing Drought Conditions. Elevated Fire Danger Elsewhere Due to Breezy Conditions & Ongoing Drought - Strong to Isolated Severe TStorms Possible through Early this Evening. Main Impact Area: Locations Along and North of the I-10 Corridor. Main Hazards: Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Isolated Tornadoes - Near Record High Temperatures Today for Northeast & North Central FL - Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Friday Afternoon through Monday Near Term - Through Tonight Main Highligheights This Period: - Red Flag Warning for Locations East of U.S. Highway 301 this Afternoon Due to Gusty Southwesterly Winds, Near Critically Low Humidity Values, and Ongoing Drought Conditions - Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Across Inland Portions of Southeast GA and Northern Portions of the Suwannee Valley Today. Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Elsewhere Along the I-10 Corridor and the Rest of Southeast GA. Overnight surface analysis depicts a wavy frontal boundary extending from the southern Appalachians southwestward through the lower Mississippi Valley and coastal Texas. Aloft...stout ridging extends across the southern Gulf and the FL peninsula, with troughing over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes creating fast zonal flow over the Deep South that was propelling a potent shortwave trough eastward across MS and AL. Meanwhile, another potent shortwave trough was progressing eastward towards the Southern Plains states, with a cutoff trough spinning over Baja California and the Desert Southwest. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWATs (Precipitable Waters) remain generally in the 1 - 1.25 inch range across our area, with higher values of 1.5 - 1.75 inches located just upstream from our area across the FL panhandle and southwestern GA. A cirrostratus shield emanating from widespread convection over southern AL and central GA has overspread most of southeast GA and portions of northeast FL, with thinner cirrus noted elsewhere. Lower stratus ceilings were otherwise developing over the northern Suwannee Valley beneath the thinner cirrus shield. A south to southwesterly breeze of 5-10 mph at most locations was keeping temperatures mostly in the 70-75 degree range across our area at 07Z, except mid to upper 60s in the Suwannee Valley. Dewpoints were in the 60s area-wide. Troughing will progress eastward across the Great Lakes towards New England today, which will serve to gradually flatten the stout ridge over the southeast Gulf and FL peninsula. Fast zonal flow in between these two features will propel the potent shortwave trough that is producing widespread convection across the Deep South eastward across GA this morning, with another shortwave currently approaching the southern Plains shifting across the Ozarks early this afternoon and then across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians later this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a 140-knot jet streak based at 250 millibars (around 35,000 feet) will become oriented across the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians, which will increase diffluence aloft over southeast GA today. Cold pools emanating from clusters of ongoing strong convection over central GA and southern AL should push showers and thunderstorms across the Ocmulgee, Altamaha and Alapaha Rivers just before sunrise, with strong to isolated storms capable of producing downburst winds of 40- 60 mph and frequent lighting strikes this morning for locations west of Waycross in inland southeast GA. Just enough helicity may be in place for an isolated tornado to form within any supercells that cross into interior southeast GA this morning. Otherwise, low stratus ceilings may expand across the Suwannee Valley through early this morning, but upstream thicker cirrostratus should prevent dense fog formation. Our local pressure gradient will tighten ahead of the approaching frontal boundary today, with breezy southwesterly winds and thinning cirrus by the mid to late morning hours increasing fire weather concerns, particularly for locations east of U.S. Highway 301 this afternoon, where breaks in the cloud cover will boost highs to the mid and possibly upper 90s (see "Climate" section below for details on record highs for today). Frequent gusts of 25-30 mph, dewpoints crashing to around 60 this afternoon that will create near critically low humidity values, and ongoing drought conditions have prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning today for these areas, and an Elevated Fire Danger will exist elsewhere across the rest of northeast and north central FL as well as coastal southeast GA, where highs will likely climb to the upper 80s to lower 90s, and breezy southwesterly winds are expected to develop before noon today. Heat index values may approach 100 degrees along the I-95 corridor early this afternoon before dewpoints mix out during the mid to late afternoon. Convective coverage this afternoon remains uncertain as the primary shortwave exits coastal southeast GA. However, deep moisture pooling along the decelerating frontal boundary, featuring PWATs (Precipitable Waters) in excess of 2 inches, will traverse southeast GA and the I-10 corridor this afternoon through the early evening hours. ML CAPE values may rise to around 1,500 j/kg across southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley ahead of the front, and a lingering 40-45 knot west-southwesterly low level jet associated with the departing shortwave trough should push a broken convective line or clusters of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across southeast GA and possibly the I-10 corridor this afternoon, with activity likely weakening as it encounters the more stable air mass associated with ridging over the FL peninsula by sunset. The Storm Prediction Center has increased the risk for severe thunderstorm development to "Slight" (level 2 out of 5) for areas from Lake City to Waycross and points westward, with a "Marginal" Risk (Level 1 out of 5) remaining in place today elsewhere across southeast GA and the I-10 corridor. Damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph and frequent lightning strikes will be the primary threats within stronger storms that will be embedded within the expected broken line or clusters of convection that will be traversing southeast GA and possibly the I-10 corridor this afternoon through around sunset. Cold pools could push convection just south of the I-10 corridor early this evening, but activity will likely wane across our area before midnight. The frontal boundary will move slowly across southeast GA after midnight, reaching the FL/GA border towards sunrise on Friday. A northerly breeze and cool air advection developing during the predawn hours will drop lows to the lower 60s by around sunrise on Friday for interior southeast GA, with mid to upper 60s for coastal southeast GA. Lower 70s are forecast for locations south of the decelerating frontal boundary from the I-10 corridor southward, where multi-layerered cloud cover will thicken overnight. Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night Main Highligheights This Period: - Isolated Shower/T'storm Chances Friday, More Numerous Saturday The previous frontal boundary is expected to stall just south of the region on Friday, which will bring more of an onshore northeasterly flow as well as some drier air in the low levels across southeast GA as weak high pressure builds in from the north. Most of the area will have low chances (under 15%) of any showers and t'storms just behind the front, with the greatest potential being areas furthest south during the afternoon and evening hours as the sea breeze boundary pushes inland. Elsewhere, only slightly drier and cooler behind the boundary with plenty of mid and high clouds expected. Temps will be mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s north of about I- 10, with upper 80s to low 90s south despite some of the higher cloud cover. Mid level flow above the boundary becomes more active Friday Night and throughout Saturday/Saturday Night, which will result in periods of more numerous showers and some isolated embedded t'storms during this time frame. Guidance suggests that more numerous activity could begin as early as Friday Night over inland GA, with these "waves" of rainfall and embedded convection spreading further southward into Saturday as well. Highest coverage as well as Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts look to be across southeast GA where the more favorable upper support will be, which could reach as high as 0.5-0.75 in some areas during the Friday Night - Saturday Night time frame. This will trend closer to the 0.25-0.5 range for most of northeast FL. High temps Saturday will be similarly in the low to mid 80s north and upper 80s to low 90s south. Lows will be mainly in the 60s to low 70s both Friday and Saturday Night. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday Main Highligheights This Period: - Unsettled Weather Continues Early Next Week - Drier Conditions Look to Return Tuesday through Thursday Frontal boundary will meander near the region for late in the weekend through early next week, persisting periods of showers and isolated t'storms before a stronger boundary with more significant upper level support looks to dive southeastward Monday. This could return higher potential for strong to severe t'storms Monday, but also have enough momentum for this boundary to push well south of the area for Tuesday and into mid week. Drier and "cooler" conditions relative to the time of year therefore will be likely towards the latter half of the long term period, after a wetter and generally warmer former half. Marine A cold front moving across the southeastern states tonight will slow its forward progress as it approaches our local waters on Friday. Breezy south-southwesterly winds will keep Caution conditions in place this morning across the offshore waters. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of this front across mainly the Georgia waters, where strong to isolated severe storms possible. The frontal boundary will push across the Georgia waters after midnight on Thursday night, stalling by Friday evening across the northeast Florida waters. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along this front on Friday afternoon, with an increasing coverage expected this weekend through Monday. A round of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday afternoon and evening, well in advance of another cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. This front will sweep southeastward across our local waters on Monday afternoon and evening, accompanied by additional showers and thunderstorms that will shift offshore on Monday night. Breezy northerly winds in the wake of this frontal passage will shift to northeasterly by Tuesday morning as high pressure builds into the southeastern states, with Caution conditions likely and Small Craft Advisory conditions possible through Tuesday afternoon. Rip Currents Breezy southwesterly winds will prevail through at least mid- afternoon today, with a weak sea breeze potentially developing during the late afternoon hours. These winds and a fading southeasterly ocean swell will yield a low risk at area beaches. Winds will shift to northerly late tonight and Friday morning and then northeasterly by Friday afternoon, possibly creating a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches, with low surf heigheights at the southeast GA beaches likely keeping the risk low. An afternoon sea breeze on Saturday may keep a lower end moderate risk in place at the northeast FL beaches, and prevailing south- southwesterly winds on Sunday may reduce the risk back to low at area beaches. Fire Weather - Areas Of High Dispersions Today - Areas Of High Dispersions Over Northeast Fl Saturday A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms today to mainly northern portions of the area, and isolated strong to severe storms will be possible with wind gusts up to 40-60 mph. Hot and dry conditions are expected for portions of northeast and north central Florida out ahead of the front today, with breezy winds and low relative humidity down as low as about 30 percent possible for areas generally east of HWY 301. The sea breeze is expected to remained pinned near the Atlantic coast, and therefore significant wind shifts are not expected, except in/near showers and t'storms. Breezy transport winds and high mixing heigheights will lead to areas of high dispersions as well. This front will drop southward through today then stall over northeast FL, providing continued showers and thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Another cold front will move through early next week, bringing another round of showers and storms. High pressure will build toward the middle of next week ushering in a period of drier weather. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog is possible through early this morning, mainly across the I-75 corridor. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any expected thunderstorms near or north of about I-10. Climate Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for today: Thu, May 7: JAX: 94/1977 CRG: 94/1977 GNV: 96/1955 AMG: 93/1962 NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8pm EDT this evening for FLZ024-038-124-125-132-137-138-140-225-232-233-237-325- 333-425-433-533-633. GA...None. Marine None. |
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