Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine, FL 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...North Northeast Winds Around 30 Knots With Frequent Gale Force Wind Gusts. Seas 12 To 17 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 22 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Showers Likely.|
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Occasional Gusts To Gale Force Possible. Seas 10 To 13 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 17 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thursday...East Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 8 To 11 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 14 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Showers Likely.|
|Thursday Night...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 11 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 11 Feet. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 11 Feet. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.|
AMZ400: Synopsis for Altamaha Sound GA to Flagler Beach FL out to 60 nm|
915 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020
Low pressure strengthening just northeast of the Bahamas will pivot eastward this afternoon as arctic high pressure moves eastward and reaches the Mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday morning. Strong northerly winds with frequent Gale Force gusts today will gradually weaken overnight as a coastal trough develops over the near shore waters, which will generate scattered showers through Thursday. Winds will shift to northeasterly on Thursday as the coastal trough moves onshore and high pressure gradually weakens over coastal New England. Meanwhile, weak low pressure developing over the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday will shift north- northeastward through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Friday, dragging a cold front across our waters on Friday afternoon and evening. High pressure will then build into our region from the west this weekend, with offshore winds expected in the wake of the frontal passage. Seas will remain elevated over the offshore waters through Saturday before gradually subsiding late in the weekend.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Jan 20, 2020 at 1200 UTC...
- 63 nautical miles east of Flagler Beach.
- 68 nautical miles east of Saint Augustine Beach.
- 76 nautical miles east of Jacksonville Beach.
- 89 nautical miles east southeast of St Simons Island.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1027am EST Wednesday Jan 22 2020
...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM EAST TO WEST IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA... Late morning surface analysis depicts complex low pressure (1007 millibars) organizing near the Bahamas, while arctic high pressure (1034 millibars) was centered over the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern states. Aloft...a potent shortwave trough was diving southeastward through the Gulf Stream waters off Cape Canaveral, which was deepening a longwave trough just off the southeastern seaboard. Meanwhile, shortwave ridging was building over the Florida panhandle and southeastern U.S. in advance of an upstream shortwave over the southern and central Plains states. Thickening stratocumulus was noted along and east of Interstate 95 in northeast Florida this morning, with this cloud shield gradually progressing inland. Shower coverage was confined to the offshore waters adjacent to northeast Florida, while fair skies prevailed east of I-95 as very thin cirrus spilling overtop of the shortwave ridge was invading the skies of our westernmost counties. A tightening local pressure gradient overnight kept surface winds elevated in the 10-20 mph range, resulting in low level mixing that prevented a hard freeze at our inland locations. We posted a Wind Advisory for coastal northeast Florida through this evening, as our gradient remains tight and winds were sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts around 35 mph at area beaches. Winds at inland locations were gradually increasing, with sustained speeds of 10-15 mph at most locations as of 15Z, which was keeping wind chill readings in the 30s at most locations. Temperatures were recovering into the upper 30s and 40s, with a large dewpoint gradient developing over our region as a very dry air mass remains entrenched at inland locations, where values were in the teens, ranging to values around 40 along the northeast Florida coast.
Stratocumulus will continue to thicken and progress further inland this afternoon and evening as a coastal trough develops over our near shore waters. Short-term, high resolution guidance indicates that isolated showers should begin to move onshore across Flagler and southern St. Johns Counties towards sunset. The cloud shield should reach I-95 in southeast Georgia and the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in northeast and north central Florida by early evening. Cold air advection on the heels of strong low-level north- northeasterly winds will keep highs in the 50s area-wide today, or about 10 degrees below late January climatology. Gradual veering in the low level flow will shut off cold air advection this evening, and increasing cloudiness will keep temperatures nearly steady at coastal locations overnight, with lows elsewhere at inland locations mostly in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Scattered shower coverage should expand westward to include the U.S.-301 corridor in northeast and north central Florida, with isolated showers possible along I-95 in southeast Georgia towards sunrise.
Low pressure strengthening near the Bahamas will pivot eastward this afternoon as arctic high pressure moves eastward and reaches the Mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday morning. Strong northerly winds with frequent Gale Force gusts today will gradually weaken overnight as a coastal trough develops over the near shore waters, which will generate scattered showers through Thursday. Seas will peak in the 8-11 foot range near shore and 12-17 feet offshore this afternoon. Winds will shift to northeasterly on Thursday as the coastal trough moves onshore and high pressure gradually weakens over coastal New England. Seas should remain at Small Craft Advisory levels near shore through at least Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, weak low pressure developing over the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday will shift north-northeastward through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Friday, dragging a cold front across our waters on Friday afternoon and evening and resulting in winds shifting to southerly by Friday morning. Following a round of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms along the front on Friday afternoon, high pressure will build into our region from the west this weekend, with offshore winds developing in the wake of the frontal passage. Seas will remain elevated over the offshore waters through Saturday before gradually subsiding below Small Craft Advisory levels late in the weekend.
.COASTAL IMPACTS... Winds will gradually veer and will become north-northeasterly this afternoon. Surf will continue to increase along the NE FL coast to 7-10 feet with a high risk of rip currents that will continue through Thursday. The approach of the New Moon and onshore flow will also produce elevated water levels during times of high tide with values peaking around 1.5 feet above MHHW ("ground level"), likely just below minor coastal flooding levels and will continue the Coastal Flood Statement through Thursday for coastal northeast Florida.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Strong low pressure development near the Bahamas will continue the cold north flow this morning with wind chill advisory verifying nicely with values expected to bottom out in the upper teens and 20s across the region with winds of 10-15 mph inland and 15-20 mph along the coast. Winds have kept temps elevated and still expect widespread lows in the upper 20s inland and lower to middle 30s along the coast, not sure the middle 20s and hard freeze conditions will materialize over far inland regions but will keep Warning posted for now.
As low tracks away towards the E-SE through the day and High Pressure builds north of the region the steering flow will slowly become Northeast and steer some of the clouds towards the coast along with some rainfall chances along the NE FL coast south of JAX, while further inland expect high cloudiness to increase from the west and skies will become partly cloudy there, while the mostly cloudy skies along the coast will hold Max Temps down in the upper 40s/near 50 degrees, while some lower 50s expected across inland SE GA and middle 50s across inland NE FL. The gusty north to northeast winds will be in the 15-25 mph range along the coast with gusts close to 35 mph at times, just below wind advisory.
As the steering flow becomes easterly and overrides the colder airmass tonight, this will continue to increase cloudiness area- wide with overcast conditions by early Thursday morning and this will hold temps above freezing overnight. Lows in the mid/upper 30s across SE GA/Suwannee River Valley and 40s elsewhere. Scattered coastal showers will spread across most of coastal NE FL and into the St Johns River Basin towards morning. Breezy NE flow will continue along the coast at 15-20G30 mph through the night.
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]... Thursday...High pressure remains north of the region and low level onshore flow from the Northeast will continue while steering flow just above the surface will veer to the Southeast and this upglide will continue abundant cloudiness but shower activity will mainly remain limited to the coastal counties along the I-95 corridor with rain chances possible inland to the US301 corridor at times. Temps will climb back closer to the climo levels in the upper 50s across SE GA and lower to middle 60s across NE FL.
Friday...High pressure ridge breaks down as next frontal passage pushes in the from the West and brings moist SW flow aloft out of the Gulf and across the region and expect scattered to numerous showers along with a return to above normal temps into the upper 60s through middle 70s as surface winds become south at 10-15 mph.
Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
Saturday...Sunny skies and seasonably cool temps return behind the frontal passage as high pressure builds in from the west. Max temps will be near 60 degrees across SE GA and near 65 degrees across NE FL. West to Northwest winds in the 10-15 mph range.
Sunday-Monday...Next fast moving low pressure system will track across the Gulf and across the FL peninsula south of the region Sunday Night with a chance of showers mainly for NE FL at night. Otherwise mainly dry conds for both days with Max Temps mainly near climo levels in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows in the 30s possible over inland areas Sunday Morning and some frost is possible but a freeze is not expected.
Tuesday...Large high pressure center builds over the SE US and expect dry conds to continue with sunny skies and temps warming into the mid-upper 60s area-wide.
NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.
High Surf Advisory until 4am EST Friday for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.
Wind Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.
GA...None. AM...Gale Warning until 4pm EST this afternoon for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM..