Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine, FL 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 6 Feet At 8 Seconds. |
| Wednesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 6 Feet At 12 Seconds And Northeast 5 Feet At 8 Seconds. |
| Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Becoming West After Midnight. Seas 5 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 6 Feet At 12 Seconds And West 5 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet. Wave Detail: West 5 Feet At 5 Seconds And Northeast 5 Feet At 11 Seconds. |
| Thursday Night And Friday...Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Northwest 6 Feet At 5 Seconds And East 4 Feet At 11 Seconds. |
| Friday Night...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 11 Seconds And Northwest 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Saturday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northeast. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. |
| Sunday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 859am EDT Wednesday Oct 29 2025 ...New .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk Today Northeast Florida Beaches - Small Craft Advisory through Thursday - Minor Tidal Flooding St. Johns River Basin. Elevated tides through early November minor tidal flood risk - Patchy Inland Frost Potential Saturday Morning Issued at 851am EDT Wednesday Oct 29 2025 Airmass change is on the way today and through tonight. There isn't any needed changes to the forecast, so left as is. A frontal system will continue to lift a warm front through the region this morning and afternoon, breaking up the stratus as it does so. This warming southerly flow and sunnier sky will raise temps to the mid/upper 70s across NE FL while lingering stratus keeps SE GA in the lower 70s for this afternoon's high. Tonight, a cool and dry airmass will overspread the area, bringing clear skies and cooling temperatures. HiRes guidance insists on a few late evening showers accompanying the frontal passage but thunderstorms are not expected. By daybreak lows in the mid/upper 40s will be common in SE GA and portions of inland NE FL. While other coastal locations and the southern zones, fall to the low 50s. Near Term Issued at 129am EDT Wednesday Oct 29 2025 Almost the entirety of the area remains socked into low clouds with areas of drizzle and fog early this morning, though things are expected to change throughout the day today as a cold front approaches from the west this afternoon. Low clouds are expected to linger through about mid to late morning before wind direction shifts more southeast to southerly by this afternoon and helps to mix us out. Rather weak convection ahead of the frontal boundary looks to start impacting western areas by about the late afternoon time frame in the form of a somewhat broken line of showers. Fortunately for us, the northeasterly drainage like flow that's been in place over the past 24+ hours has left a lack of low level moisture to maintain higher chances for rain with the line. This goes hand in hand with expected instability as well, especially with low clouds taking their time this morning to mix out. Therefore, despite modestly strong fall frontal passage, chances for rain and especially thunderstorms are expected to be on the lower side, with the best chances for rainfall being generally over western areas and especially inland southeast GA closer to more favorable upper level support that will be lifting northeast of the area through tonight. High temps are a bit tricky today, with the two main factors being how quickly low clouds scatter out this morning/afternoon, as well as how short lived we will be in the warm sector ahead of the front and how much of a boost in temps that will give us. All in all, expecting to average out to widespread 70s across the area, with some potential for some low 80s over far southern areas where expect low clouds to move out the quickest. The front clears the area from northwest to southeast this evening through early Thursday Morning, ushering in a cool and dry west to northwesterly flow area-wide with cloud cover also mostly clearing out rather quickly. Temperatures and dew points crash throughout the night, featuring lows mostly in the 40s to near 50 inland and low 50s near the coast and St. Johns River. .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 129am EDT Wednesday Oct 29 2025 Cool and dry with gusty post-frontal westerly winds Thursday between high pressure building eastward across the Gulf Coast states and an approaching reinforcing dry front sliding southward down the SE region. The high builds NNW of the region through Friday with a ridge axis extending across the local area bringing lighter winds as the aforementioned dry front slides offshore of the Atlantic coast. Clear skies prevail Friday into Friday night, with a low to medium chance for some patchy inland frost mainly across southeast GA and areas north and west of the JAX metro area including locations near and north of the I-10 corridor in cooler pockets under good radiational cooling conditions. The latest 01z NBM CONUS run advertised the higher probabilities of (30-40%) of temperatures 36degF or below between Waycross, Hilliard and Glen St. Marys. This would be the first frost of this season. Temperatures will trend below normal this period with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s to a few mid/upper 30s well inland Friday night. Long Term (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 129am EDT Wednesday Oct 29 2025 Dry weather prevails this weekend with a gradual warming trend in temperatures as the surface high north of the area shifts offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast Saturday into Sunday. Low level winds shift to onshore/easterly Sunday as a coastal trough begins to form over the local Atlantic waters, with the low level pressure gradient increasing late Sunday into Monday as this coastal trough morphs into a lifting warm front ahead of the next approaching frontal system. With breezy onshore flow by Monday, a chance of coastal showers returns to the forecast with elevated rip current risk and tidal flooding impacts. Monday into Tuesday, the next frontal system approaches from the west, but there remains a great deal of forecast model discrepancies with the evolution, timing and track of synoptic features, including the track of a frontal surface low. The official NWS NBM extended model guidance is weighed more toward the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) solution which shows a surface low across the southern Gulf with breezy onshore flow across the local area in the cool sector of this system and a drier forecast with just passing showers. However, ensemble runs of the GEFS, GEPS and ENS show a wetter solution with the operational GFS (Global Forecast System) having a potential squall line scenario Mon/Tuesday with a strong cold front passage and cool down Tuesday into Wed. Given high uncertainty, there is very low confidence in the Mon-Wednesday time frame with regards to severe storm risk. What does look likely is a continuation of tidal flooding impacts with the approach of the full moon Nov. 5th. High temperatures will moderate this period back toward seasonal averages with highs in the 70s with lows near to below normal ranging from the 40s/50s inland to 60s coast. Marine Issued at 129am EDT Wednesday Oct 29 2025 Low clouds and areas of mist/drizzle over area waters will subside later this morning as a cold front approaches from the west. Winds will shift more southeast to southerly ahead of the front before it moves through tonight as Hurricane Melissa moves well to the east of the region. High pressure builds in from the northwest behind the front, with breezy conditions expected through Thursday. Conditions subside Friday and into Saturday as high pressure moves almost directly over the area. Another frontal system is expected to approach the area Sunday, likely bringing unsettled conditions once again through at least Monday. Hydrology Issued at 129am EDT Wednesday Oct 29 2025 Coastal flood advisory continues for the St. Johns River basin from downtown JAX southward to Satsuma where peak inundation up to 1.5 ft MHHW is expected around high tides. Expect this trend will continue for at least the next couple of days, but likely through much of next week as astronomical tides further increase with the approach of the Nov. 5th full moon. Will continue to monitor observations to see if the advisory needs to be extended to include the ICW of St. Johns and Flagler counties. NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1am EDT Thursday for FLZ132-137- 325-633. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 5am EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. |
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