Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine, FL Out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...West Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Inland Waters Smooth. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Inland Waters Smooth. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Inland Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Tuesday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Inland Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tuesday Night...East Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Inland Waters Smooth.|
|Wednesday...North Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Inland Waters Smooth. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday Night And Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thursday Night...East Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers.|
AMZ400: Synopsis for Altamaha Sound GA to Flagler Beach FL out to 60 nm|
808 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020
A weak wave will move east across the region through Monday. High pressure will build from the northwest on Tuesday, then to the north northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. An area of low pressure will track east across area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will build to the northwest then north Thursday into Thursday night. Yet another low will track east across the region late in the week.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Jan 25, 2020 at 1200 UTC...
- 59 nautical miles east of Flagler Beach.
- 66 nautical miles east of Saint Augustine Beach.
- 73 nautical miles east of Jacksonville Beach.
- 74 nautical miles east southeast of St Simons Island.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
747pm EST Sunday Jan 26 2020
Upper trough will pivot east across the region overnight into Monday morning. Expecting light rain showers to accompany this feature, along with cloudy skies. Temperatures are expected to be above normal overnight, with readings falling into the mid to upper 40s.
.NEAR TERM [Through Monday]... Shortwave troughing will cross the Ozarks this evening and will then pivot eastward across the southeastern states overnight and Monday, reaching the Carolina coast by Monday afternoon. Isentropic lift associated with the aforementioned impressive jet streak and weak low pressure center migrating through the Gulf of Mexico will strengthen this evening, resulting in gradually thickening and lowering cloud cover through sunset from west to east, followed by light showers or drizzle moving over inland southeast Georgia and along the Interstate 10 corridor by the mid evening hours. Periods of light showers and drizzle will continue for locations along and north of I-10 through Monday morning, with locations south of I-10 likely not receiving much in the way of measurable rainfall. Lows tonight will generally remain in the mid to upper 40s.
A drier air mass will filter back into our region beginning on Monday afternoon as the shortwave trough bypasses our region to the north and the jet streak pivots offshore while weakening. A few peaks of sun will be possible late in the afternoon on Monday, with a light southwesterly breeze during the afternoon helping temperatures recover to near 60 at most locations following a chilly and damp morning. Highs may reach 65 in north central Florida, where cloud cover will not be as thick and measurable rainfall chances during the morning will be lower.
.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Wednesday Night]... A dry west-northwesterly flow pattern will develop in the wake of the departing shortwave trough on Monday night. Fair skies and decoupling winds will drive lows down to slightly below late January climatology, with upper 30s and lower 40s expected inland, ranging to the mid 40s at coastal locations. Meanwhile, the next upstream shortwave trough, which is currently impacting the U.S. West Coast, will dive southeastward through the southern Rockies and the Desert Southwest by late Monday and Monday night and will then amplify over Texas by Tuesday evening. Mostly sunny skies will offset weak cool air advection on Tuesday, with highs in the 60s region-wide. Mid level cloudiness should begin increasing towards sunrise on Wednesday, but radiational cooling earlier in the evening should result in lows similar to Monday night's values region-wide.
Shortwave troughing progressing across the southeastern states on Wednesday should direct weak low pressure east-southeastward from eastern Texas on Tuesday evening through the northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, reaching central Florida during the overnight hours on Wednesday night. Cloud cover will again gradually increase, thicken and eventually lower on Wednesday morning in advance of this storm system, with at least scattered showers migrating across our area on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Highs on Wednesday may touch 70 in north central Florida, with 60s expected elsewhere. Cloud cover will then depart from west to east during the predawn hours on Thursday, with lows falling to the 40s inland and around 50 at the coast.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]... Fast zonal flow aloft will prevail Thursday, followed by heights aloft rising later this week downstream of a longwave trough that will be progressing eastward through the Plains States. This trough will likely progress across the southeastern states on Saturday, preceded by weak cyclogenesis over central Gulf of Mexico. Northeasterly winds in the wake of the departing midweek low pressure center will keep highs near climatology on Thursday, with a wider range of low temperatures likely on Thursday night as coastal locations remain in the 50s.
Low level flow will veer early on Friday in advance of the developing storm system over the Gulf of Mexico, with warm air advection and the presence of a coastal trough / developing warm front resulting in increasing shower chances from south to north. Highs should continue to run near climatology as cloud cover thickens, with lows remaining above climatology on Friday night as periods of showers overspread our region from southwest to northeast. Low pressure is currently forecast to depart into the Atlantic waters on Saturday night, with a slightly cooler and drier air mass then advecting into our region on the heels of deep northwesterly flow aloft for late next weekend.
NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AM...None.