Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine, FL Out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northeast This Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: East 2 Feet At 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming West After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Thursday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. |
| Friday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Friday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. |
| Saturday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Night. |
| Sunday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Night. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1226pm EDT Wednesday July 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Expected Each Day. Isolated Strong Storms Possible Late this Afternoon Into Early Evening Along the I-95 Corridor. Hazards: Wind Gusts Near 40 mph, Frequent Lightning & Heavy Downpours. - Heat and Humidity Builds Late this Weekend and Early Next Week. Heat Advisory Conditions Possible Sunday through Tuesday. Near Term - Through Tonight Main Highligheights This afternoon and Tonight: - Typically Hot and Humid Summertime Weather Returns Today - Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Will Push Eastward Across Our Area this Afternoon and Evening. Hot and humid airmass remains over the area as a stalled frontal boundary draped across central GA will gradually dissipates as it drifts northward into tonight. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the NE Gulf helps maintain a west- northwest flow. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deep moisture remains in place for much of the area, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) ranging from around 1.8 inches across north central FL to around 2.2 inches in SE GA. Isolated to widely scattered convection is expected to develop along mesoscale boundaries such as the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes during the early to mid afternoon hours today, with low and mid level flow pushing the Gulf coast sea breeze quickly eastward, while the Atlantic sea breeze remains pinned the I-95 corridor. Convection may pulse along the I-95 corridor late this afternoon into early evening as mesoscale boundaries collide. Relatively mild temperatures aloft will likely result in locally heavy downpours being the main threat with a few stronger storms producing wind gusts 30-40 mph. strong wind gusts. Convection lingers near the coast this evening and gradually wanes with the loss of daytime heating. High temperatures will generally top out in the lower 90s, with heat index values generally peaking in the 100-105 degree range this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night Main Highligheights During This Period: - Daily bouts of showers and storms Northwesterly flow will cap convective potential slightly Thursday and possibly into Friday as well, especially the further north and west you go with the continental influence. That said, there is still more than sufficient moisture in the lower levels as PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will hover around the 1.9 to 2 inch range, and therefore expecting more of a typical sea breeze driven convective pattern throughout the short term. One main factor that suspect is causing more discrepancy amongst model guidance is the forming of a broad upper low over the Florida peninsula and/or eastern Gulf on Thursday/Friday, in which the placement and evolution will play a role in convective coverage as well as the outlook for the long term (more on that below). All in all, expecting highest tropical moisture transport on the east side of the upper low across the Florida peninsula to result in highest Probability of Precipitation across northeast FL, especially towards the nearly pinned Atlantic breeze on both Thursday and Friday. Highs will overall trend close to normal for the short term, in the low to mid 90s. Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday Main Highligheights During This Period: - Daily bouts of showers and storms - Potential heat advisory conditions this weekend and into next week Overall a more active convective pattern is looking increasingly likely this weekend and potentially into early next week, as both an upper level low and developing surface troughiness are expected to impact the region. The National Hurricane Center has placed the northeastern Gulf and northern Florida Peninsula in a 20% chance of tropical development with this developing troughiness and upper level energy sometime this weekend or early next week, before lifting generally northeastward along an approaching frontal boundary. This potential will be monitored closely over the coming days as details become more clear. Regardless, the main take home points will be the potential for more enhanced shower/t'storm activity and/or heavy rainfall beginning this weekend, and secondly as a seasonal reminder to maintain tropical readiness. Marine A frontal boundary stalled over the Georgia waters will lift slowly northward as a warm front this afternoon and tonight as it weakens. Meanwhile, weak high pressure centered over south Florida will shift slowly westward across the Gulf through Friday, creating a prevailing northwesterly flow across our local waters, with a late afternoon sea breeze developing today and then earlier in the afternoon on Thursday that will shift winds to onshore over the near shore waters. Scattered late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible today and Thursday, mainly over the near shore waters, followed by coverage decreasing to isolated on Friday afternoon and evening. NHC has highlighted a low chance for tropical cyclone development later this weekend into early next week which could bring widely scattered, mainly late afternoon and evening thunderstorms back to our local waters as southwesterly winds prevail. Rip Currents Prevailing offshore winds and low surf heigheights will continue to keep the rip current risk low at area beaches during the next several days. Fire Weather - Patchy High Dispersions Over Inland Northeast Fl Today Northwesterly flow in the lower levels will drop chances for showers and t'storms slightly today and Thursday, especially the further north and west you go away from sea breeze influences. The flow will be strong enough for some patchy high dispersions inland over north central Florida today, especially over areas like the Ocala National Forest. These dispersions will drop off rather quickly into interior southeast GA. Shower and t'storm chances generally increase Friday and into the weekend with a more active pattern emerging. This is partially due to potential tropical development in the northeast Gulf that we are currently monitoring, in which more details will be ironed out over the coming days. No concerns with minRH through the rest of the week with sufficient low level moisture. Fog Potential and Other Remarks: Significant fog development is not expected for the next several nights. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible in and near thunderstorms, with occasional outflow boundaries capable of producing sudden wind shifts well away from ongoing convection. NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GA...None. Marine None. |
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