Marine Weather Net

Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine, FL Out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

W
WINDS
25
KNOTS

MONDAY

W
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUESDAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ452 Forecast Issued: 257 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
Tonight...West Winds 25 To 30 Knots With Frequent Gusts To Gale Force Diminishing To 20 To 25 Knots Towards Daybreak. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Very Rough On The Intracoastal Waters.
Monday...West Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Rough On The Intracoastal Waters.
Monday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters.
Tuesday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.
Tuesday Night...East Winds 5 Knots Becoming Southeast After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters.
Wednesday...South Winds 5 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters.
Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.
Thursday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Thursday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers.
Friday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Chance Of Showers.
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AMZ400: Synopsis for Altamaha Sound GA to Flagler Beach FL out to 60 nm
257 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

Strong winds continue behind the cold front that crossed the waters this morning. Sustained gale force winds over the offshore waters and frequent gusts to gale force over the nearshore waters will be possible through Monday morning. Winds and seas will gradually subside early this week and are expected to lower below warning and advisory criteria by Tuesday. High pressure will move into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, then a cold front is expected to move southeast across the waters on Thursday.

Gulf Stream
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Jan 15, 2022 at 1200 UTC...
- 37 nautical miles east northeast of Flagler Beach.
- 46 nautical miles east of Saint Augustine Beach.
- 61 nautical miles east of Jacksonville Beach.
- 68 nautical miles east southeast of St Simons Island.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
659pm EST Sunday Jan 16 2022

55pm EST]... Near Term - Through Tonight
The low pressure system that brought us rain and wind today is now moving towards the northeastern US where it is expected to bring winter weather. We are currently in the dry slot of the system, and descending air in this region is mixing down strong winds to the surface. Windy conditions in our local area will persist through the evening and into tonight. Here at JAX we have observed 20-30 mph sustained winds with gusts as high as 58 mph throughout the day. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all of NE FL and SE GA through late tonight. As the system lifts northeast, the tip of the comma cloud will pass just north of our area, and flow around the low will push colder, drier air into the region for tonight. A few isolated showers will also be possible in NE FL this evening on the backside of the system.

Temperatures tonight will be nearly 20 degrees colder than they were last night. Lows are expected to drop into the middle 30s in SE GA and upper 30s to lower 40s in NE FL and at the coasts. Frost and freeze conditions are not expected tonight because winds will be too strong for frost formation and temperatures are expected to remain above freezing. The wind will, however, make temperatures feel much colder. Wind chills will be in the middle to upper 20s in SE GA and upper 20s to lower 30s in NE FL.

Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
Dry and cool weather will persist Monday and Tuesday. Surface high pressure will build to the west-northwest on Monday and another upper level shortwave will dive across the Southeast US, pushing the cool, dry continental air mass further into the region. Winds will decrease on Monday, but winds could still be breezy during the afternoon hours. Winds will become calm Monday night through Tuesday night as high pressure shifts over the region.

Although clear skies are expected during the day Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures will only reach into the 50s and lower 60s both days. Clear skies and calm winds both nigheights will allow for efficient radiative cooling, so lows will be cold. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 20s to middle 30s Monday night and a few degrees warmer in the lower 30s to lower 40s Tuesday night. Frost and freeze conditions are expected both nights.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday

High pressure will shift off the East Coast on Wednesday as a low pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes region. This low pressure system will bring a trailing cold front towards the southeast, and it will cross the area with scattered showers expected on Thursday. An upper level shortwave will eject out of the upper Mid-West down towards the Tennessee Valley Thursday night into Friday that will push the front further south and likely trigger cyclogenesis over the Atlantic as it swings off the US East Coast next weekend. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the long term forecast for next weekend as forecast model solutions diverge. The GFS solution bring a wave of precipitation across the area while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is much drier. Current forecast precipitation chances favor a drier solution, so there is a chance precipitation chances could increase as we get closer to the weekend.

Temperatures through the long term period will trend near normal Wednesday and Thursday, then below normal Friday through the weekend after the cold front passage. We could see frost and freeze conditions again next weekend.

Marine
Strong winds continue behind the cold front that crossed the waters this morning. Sustained gale force winds over the offshore waters and frequent gusts to gale force over the nearshore waters will be possible through Monday morning. Winds and seas will gradually subside early this week and are expected to lower below warning and advisory criteria by Tuesday. High pressure will move into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, then a cold front is expected to move southeast across the waters on Thursday.

Rip Currents
Moderate Risk through Monday.

Fire Weather
Strong winds behind the cold front will continue through this evening, and a Wind Advisory remains in effect for then entire area through late tonight. Sustained winds 20-30 mph and gusts 40-50 mph will be possible. Higher surface and transport winds will also result in elevated nighttime dispersions tonight. Winds will decrease on Monday, but afternoon winds could still be breezy. This will result in good daytime dispersions. Calm winds are expected Monday night through Tuesday as high pressure moves into the region, which will result in low daytime dispersions area wide on Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday will be dry and cool with frost and freeze conditions possible Monday and Tuesday nights.

NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...Wind Advisory until 1am EST Monday for Baker-Bradford-Central Marion-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns-Eastern Alachua-Eastern Clay-Eastern Marion- Eastern Putnam-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Flagler-Inland Nassau-Inland St. Johns-Northern Columbia-South Central Duval-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Trout River-Union-Western Alachua-Western Clay-Western Duval-Western Marion-Western Putnam.

GA...Wind Advisory until 1am EST Monday for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon- Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols- Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern Charlton- Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton.

AM...Gale Warning until 10am EST Monday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 4am EST Monday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.