Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine, FL Out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: East 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 7 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Friday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 7 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Southeast 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Saturday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 242am EDT Thu August 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Scattered Thunderstorms Each Day Through the Weekend. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding - Increasing Rip Current Potential Later This Week Through the Weekend .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Isolated strong storms possible this afternoon into evening The mid / upper level trough that has been affecting the area for a few days will be west of the forecast area at 12z Today, located from eastern TN southward to the western FL panhandle. It will continue to lift to the northwest today. Mean steering flow through about 500 mb will be south to southeast about 10-15 kt and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will be just above 2 inches, but noting some drier air will filter in per the GFS (Global Forecast System) and SREF guidance with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) lowering to about the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range by 09z Friday. With the Atlantic surface ridge essentially lifting into southern GA this morning, the developing background southeast flow will enable the east coast sea breeze to move in steadily inland during the day, with winds become east and southeast behind the sea breeze. Don't see the west coast sea breeze making it to our forecast area. With a moist and unstable airmass in place with plentiful low level moisture, we expect some isolated convection to be present over the marine waters where there will be some weak low level convergence and MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. After collaboration with CHS, there may be a risk of funnel clouds or a waterspout over the marine waters through the mid morning hours with favorable low level CAPE. Convergence along the east coast sea breeze and daytime heating should result in fairly quick development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from 8am to noon time, generally pushing westward from over the coastal counties and moving toward the Highway 301 corridor as well. During the afternoon, scattered showers and storms are expected with MLCAPE rising to about 2400-2800 J/kg range. Over some of the inland areas, numerous showers and storms are possible as indicated in some of the latest guidance. Main storm threats are heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. DCAPE values are not excessive, and look to stay under 700 J/kg so winds of about 40-50 mph seem reasonable for possible downburst winds. Soundings and HREF show potential for localized 2-3 inch hourly rainfall, which if there were some brief training of cells, could dump 4+ inches of rainfall causing localized flooding. With plentiful moisture, clouds and precipitation will hold highs to the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast. Tonight, isolated to scattered showers and storms expected in the evening, most common well west of Highway 301 and close to the I-75 corridor. Near and after midnight, only isolated shower or a storm possible, which, after midnight would be more favorable along the coastal counties given the prevailing deep southeast flow. Lows tonight expected in the lower 70s inland and mid to upper 70s toward the coast where a gentle southeast surface wind flow will continue. Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night Main Highligheights This Period: - Daily chances for isolated strong thunderstorms, with wind gusts and heavy rainfall the greatest hazards Continuing onshore flow through the end of the week and into the weekend as high pressure extends westward from the Atlantic. As higher moisture will be in place over NE FL at the start of the period, coastal showers will be possible during the morning hours on Friday over coastal NE FL. As the day progresses, storms will begin to develop with the inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze, with most convective activity focused along the sea breezes mergers between US-301 and the I-75 corridor across NE FL. On Saturday, the onshore flow persists with the high pressure remaining in place as an inverted trough just off the Atlantic coast, allowing for coastal showers again during the morning hours. Higher moisture levels (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) in the 2+" range) combined with diurnal heating and the Atlantic sea breeze will drive development of numerous showers and storms by the afternoon hours across much of the area. Gusty downbursts with winds in the 40 to 60 mph possible with any storms, in addition to frequent lightning and heavy downpours at times. Daytime temperatures will rise to the lower 90s area-wide aside from coastal locations which will be a bit cooler in the upper 80s thanks to the onshore flow. Overnight Lows will drop to the lower 70s. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday Main Highligheights This Period: - Daily chances for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with wind gusts and heavy rainfall the greatest hazards The high pressure situated over the eastern CONUS will begin to sink southward towards central FL late Sunday into Monday. This will have the southeasterly flow steadily become more southerly, where both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes will be able to push inland during the afternoon hours. The coverage of showers and storms will likely be limited due to drier air under the ridge of high pressure, but isolated storms during the afternoon hours will still be possible as the sea breezes merge over inland locations. Daytime highs near average this weekend will increase to above average into early next week due to less storm coverage. Lows will be near normal this weekend and trend a bit above normal Tuesday into Wednesday. Marine High pressure centered over Bermuda will build westward toward the United States east coast through the weekend shifting flow from east and southeast today to more east late this week and into the upcoming weekend. Sea heigheights will gradually rise into early Friday due to the persistent southeast winds, which may reach up to 15 knots from Friday through Saturday. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will also continue daily, some of which will produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning strikes. Rip Currents A wind shift to a more southeast/onshore flow along with some increase in wind waves will build surf/breakers to 2-3 feet later today with a Moderate rip current risk expected. Friday into the weekend sees potential surf/breakers of 3-4 feet and corresponding increased rip current risk. Fire Weather Scattered to numerous showers for inland locations as southeasterly winds will be present once again as high pressure builds northeast of the area. Friday, more easterly winds will prevail with coastal showers moving onto the Northeast FL coast before midday with numerous thunderstorms inland in the afternoon. Isolated strong thunderstorm potential will remain each afternoon with storm outflows causing sudden and erratic wind shifts, locally stronger winds, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning in and near thunderstorms. Overall light transport winds will keep dispersions in the fair range this afternoon, but breezier winds on Friday will allow for good dispersions to develop across inland locations away from the coast. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected, with shallow, patchy fog late overnight limited to areas that receive locally heavy rainfall. NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GA...None. Marine None. |
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