Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Sat...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
1017pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023
High pressure builds in from the west tonight behind a departing low well offshore. The high then gives way to a weak frontal system that moves across the area Tuesday night. Brief high pressure follows on Wednesday remaining in control through Wednesday night. Low pressure will then past to the north and west, lifting a warm front north of the area on Thursday and dragging a cold front through Thursday night into Friday. Another system may impact the area Friday night into Saturday with high pressure possibly returning on Sunday through Monday.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
Updated for current conditions and trends into late tonight as skies have become mostly clear with increased subsidence with building high pressure to the west, and with diminishing winds, and dew points falling into the lower 20s, and evening into the teens inland.
Deepening offshore low pressure will pass well to the east of the area tonight, while high pressure builds in from the west.
Lows tonight will be close to normal with most of the outlying areas in the 20s with the NYC metro around 30.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Tuesday Night
A progressive flow across the Lower 48 will feature two streams with little if any phasing between the two. A northern branch shortwave trough will lift across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest tonight, racing eastward on Tuesday and sending a weak frontal system toward the area. High pressure over the area Tuesday morning will move offshore by afternoon with a strengthening return flow. This combined with increasing clouds will allow for warm advection with temperatures holding steady or even slowly rising Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday will be near normal around 40. This looks to be a light rainfall event overspreading the area Tuesday evening and likely east of the area before daybreak Wednesday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be a tenth of an inch or less.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
The long term period starts out with a departing cold front and high pressure building in from the west. Like much of the winter has been this year, Wednesday will be mild with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Shortwave energy moves through in the mid-levels during the afternoon, and then deep ridging sets up across the east coast. Wednesday night will be mostly clear until mid and high level clouds approach with an approaching low pressure system late. This low will pass to our north and west, but drag its associated warm and cold front through the area. If any associated precipitation moves into the area in the early morning hours on Thursday, forecast soundings support the chance of freezing rain, with a warm layer around 850mb and below freezing surface temperatures across portions of CT and the Lower Hudson Valley. Ground temperatures will be highly dependent on timing of clouds moving in and how well these areas can take advantage of several hours of decent radiational cooling conditions. If there is any freezing rain it will likely be short- lived and quickly change over to plain rain. Rain becomes likely Thursday afternoon and will taper off Thursday night.
There will likely be some brief break in the rain before another system impacts the area. With the cold front pushing offshore Friday, another area of low pressure will form along the boundary and likely pass directly over the area. This system is expected to remain all plain rain.
High pressure builds in from the south and west Sunday through Monday allowing for a return to dry weather.
Temperatures continue to be above average through the entire long term period. The warmest day will likely be Thursday, with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s that likely get reached Thursday night.
The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the non ocean waters, and the ocean waters west of Moriches Inlet was allowed to expire at 10pm EST, as gusts and seas were under advisory levels, except possibly across the outer ocean zones until around midnight as winds remain marginal, and swells from the departing low may keep seas near 5 feet.
Northerly winds will subside through the night as strong low pressure passes well east of the waters and high pressure builds in from the west. Then with another frontal system moving into the area Tuesday into Tuesday night SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely return on the ocean waters. Thus, any break from SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions looks to be brief and therefore have extended through Tuesday night on the easternmost ocean zone. The remaining ocean zones to the west will likely see seas come up Tuesday afternoon along with marginal southerly gusts at night. So, SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely need to be issued for these waters later tonight.
5 to 7 ft waves will linger on the ocean waters on Wednesday as a cold front exits the area. By early Wednesday night all waters will be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. There will then be two low pressure systems that will move through the area and bring SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. The first Thursday night through Friday morning will bring 25-30 kt gusts to all waters except the NY Harbor and western Sound, as well as 6 to 8 ft waves on the ocean waters. The next will be Saturday through Sunday morning and will bring very similar conditions. With this system, winds will extend a bit farther west and include all waters.
There are no hydrologic concerns through the beginning of next week.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EST Wednesday for ANZ350.