Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Ne Winds 35 To 45 Kt With Gusts Up To 60 Kt. Seas 15 To 20 Ft, Occasionally To 25 Ft, Subsiding To 13 To 18 Ft, Occasionally To 23 Ft This Afternoon. Wave Detail: E 19 Ft At 11 Seconds, Becoming E 17 Ft At 11 Seconds. Chance Of Tstms This Morning. Rain. Isolated Tstms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Ne Winds 35 To 45 Kt, Increasing To 45 To 55 Kt After Midnight. Seas 12 To 16 Ft, Occasionally To 20 Ft, Building To 13 To 18 Ft, Occasionally To 23 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: E 16 Ft At 10 Seconds, Becoming E 18 Ft At 10 Seconds. Rain With Isolated Tstms. |
| Sun...E Winds 30 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 55 Kt, Becoming Se 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 14 To 19 Ft, Occasionally To 24 Ft, Subsiding To 10 To 14 Ft, Occasionally To 18 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: E 19 Ft At 10 Seconds, Becoming Se 14 Ft At 9 Seconds. Rain With Isolated Tstms In The Morning, Then Rain Likely With Isolated Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Occasionally To 11 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: E 8 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds, Becoming Se 6 Ft At 8 Seconds And Sw 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. Showers And Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers After Midnight. |
| Mon...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 9 Seconds And Sw 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. Showers. |
| Mon Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Tue Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 455pm EDT Sat September 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High wind warning for Long Island and parts of SE Connecticut until 12PM Sunday. Wind advisory expanded to include Orange NY, Putnam NY and Western Passaic NJ. Wind advisory for all zones extended until 12PM Sunday. For the waters, all marine zones except for NY Harbor now have the storm warning which is in effect until 12PM Sunday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Nor'easter strong winds through early Sunday 2) Nor'easter heavy rain potential through the rest of the weekend 3) Widespread coastal flooding impacts expected through the weekend. Greatest impacts expected Saturday and Sunday. 4) High surf and rip current risk through at least Sunday. .KEY MESSAGE 1... With increasing confidence of wind gusts reaching near 60 mph for Long Island and some parts of Southeast Connecticut, the wind advisory has been replaced with a high wind warning. These locations especially across Eastern Long Island show some potential within HREF of reaching near 70 mph at times with wind gusts. The wind advisory has been expanded to cover the rest of the forecast region, now including the zones of Orange NY, Putnam NY, and Western Passaic NJ with the increased wind gust forecast. Both of these wind hazards end at 12PM Sunday. Wind headlines were extended farther into Sunday after analyzing latest model guidance. The operational RRFS and HREF mean show these near 60 mph wind gusts for Long Island and into parts of Southeast CT into tonight and early Sunday morning. Even the 10th percentile of the HREF max wind gusts indicates this. For places where the wind advisory remains, such as NYC, adjacent zones of NE NJ, Southern Westchester and rest of Southern Connecticut, there very well could be some occasional gusts up to 60 mph but are not expected to be frequent. Models indicate a further tightening of the pressure gradient as the nor'easter approaches from the south and east into tonight with central pressure around 990mb. For Sunday, the low pressure area is expected to be just south of Long Island and close to the NJ coastline. In terms of mid-latitude cyclone evolution, this low has already occluded with relatively warmer air around the center compared to surroundings. Models continue to indicate a northwestward track of this nor'easter through the rest of the weekend. They also continue to indicate the low maintaining nearly the same strength with some increased low level frontogenesis tonight into early Sunday as the center makes it closest approach. The models do indicate some weakening for the afternoon into evening timeframe Sunday as the low fills in, allowing for a relative loosening of the pressure gradient. Vertically, the low is becoming more vertically stacked. For Sunday afternoon, there could still be some gusts to 50 mph especially for the first half, but feel these would be more isolated. Otherwise, most gusts for Sunday afternoon expected to be within the 35 to 45 mph range. Models also indicate a northward movement of the cutoff mid level and associated vort max that moves in late tonight into early Sunday. Along with this forcing, marginal elevated instability works its way into the area from the east. Potentially even more low level instability moves in late Sunday into Sunday evening. With this, at times, there could be an isolated embedded thunderstorms within the rain. Rain becomes more of convective showers with the increase of low level instability late Sunday into Sunday evening. The rain showers continue into early Monday. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The Weather Prediction Center has placed the area in its excessive rainfall outlook for marginal to slight risk for the rest of this weekend. The nor'easter will present some moments with heavy rainfall but overall the storm total rain is expected to fall over a long period of time, through Monday. The storm total rainfall ranges from near 1.5 to near 4 inches, with lowest amounts in parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and highest amounts within parts of Suffolk County on Long Island. With the HREF continuing to indicate within its 3 hr max Quantitative Precipitation Forecast of there be less than 3 inches and not even 10 percent probability of achieving 3 inches of rain within 3 hrs, there is less confidence on flash flooding potential overall. Heavy rain potential also with higher precipitable waters near 2 inches into tonight but both NAM and GFS (Global Forecast System) do lower this quantity closer to 1.5 inches for Sunday. For now, decided to not go with a flood watch but did insert in the hazardous weather outlook, the following, localized flash flooding will be possible for the rest of the weekend. More common flooding from the rain will be minor with ponding of water on roads in poor drainage, low lying and urban areas. What will exacerbate this flood potential will be near the coastlines, the ongoing coastal flooding near times of high tide and any coinciding heavy rainfall. These coastal areas could easily have excessive runoff with the heavy rain. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Widespread minor to moderate, with locally major, coastal flooding will occur around the times of high tide through Sunday morning. Additional rounds of minor flooding possible Sunday night through next week. Surge guidance is overall bullish on lowering water levels tonight as compared to this morning peak water levels, but then rebounding a bit for Sunday AM. For southern and eastern bays of LI, with continued gale to storm force northerly winds thru tonight backing to the NE/E on Sunday, tidal piling, and gradually rising astronomical tide levels, water levels will likely have trouble falling too much with this evening and Sunam high tides. Widespread moderate coastal flooding remains likely for Long Island thru the Sunam high tide, with locally major coastal flooding is possible for southern Nassau and SW Suffolk, including the north facing portions of the barrier islands and twin forks/Peconic river. Water levels may not fall much if at all below minor flood thresholds in a few of these spots even during low tide. Wave action will exacerbate moderate shoreline impacts along north facing shorelines. Along western LI Sound, we could see higher water levels Sunday AM as compared to this morning due to winds backing to a more favorable ENE flow for building surge and waves, and resulting in a more widespread moderate flood threat. For NYC/NJ harbor and the tidally effected waters of NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley, the northerly flow through Sunam should keep impacts to generally minor to locally moderate through these tidal cycles. The current forecast is based on a blend of bias corrected 12Z STOFS, and P-ETSS and Stevens NYHOPS 75th percentile forecasts. With the tidal piling and backing of winds to the NE on Sunday, we have leaned towards the 75th percentile of guidance to incorporate a safety margin through Sunam high tides. .KEY MESSAGE 3... High risk of rip currents and high surf through Sunday along ocean shorelines. While ocean swells in outer ocean reach near 13-16 ft, surf height of near 7-11 ft expected closer to shore. There will be some variation due to swell orientation, with occasionally more ENE vs more ESE swell direction. The lack of orthogonal component to shoreline really limits the surf heights closer to the shore. However, with current buoy observations running higher than GFSWave by a few feet, felt wave heigheights are already within advisory range within the surf zone. Beach flooding and erosion can be expected today and into Sunday. Marine High ocean seas near 15 to 20 ft and high LI Sound seas near 5 to 9 ft forecast through early Sunday. Ocean seas eventually forecast to lower to near 10 ft by late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening while LI Sound seas forecast to lower near 6 ft. Both seas forecast to lower closer to 6 ft late Sunday night into early Monday. The aforementioned model consensus showing the higher gusts near 60 mph for Long Island tonight into early Sunday also has much of the surrounding waters also getting 60 mph wind gusts. For the waters, all marine zones except for NY Harbor now have the storm warning which is in effect until 12PM Sunday. The NY Harbor still has their gale warning in effect until 6PM Sunday. Essentially, after 12PM Sunday, expect gales on all waters. By 6PM Sunday, some gales could remain for parts of the waters. Otherwise, high end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level wind gusts are expected, gusts mostly near 30 kt. Wind gusts remain mainly within SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels late Sunday night into Monday morning. Gusts eventually subside below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels by mid to late Monday afternoon but ocean seas likely remain at SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels near 5 ft. The eventual return of sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions for marine zones except for ocean 20-60 nm out does not occur until closer to Monday night when high pressure makes its return, building in from the west. This continues into midweek for these waters except for ocean out 20 to 60 nm which will take longer to subside below SCA, probably not until Tuesday for those zones. Then, those outer ocean zones are forecast to be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) into midweek. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for CTZ005>007-009-010. High Wind Warning until noon EDT Sunday for CTZ008-011-012. Coastal Flood Warning until 6pm EDT Sunday for CTZ009-010. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6pm EDT Sunday for CTZ011-012. NY...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for NYZ067>075-176-178. High Wind Warning until noon EDT Sunday for NYZ078>081-177-179. Coastal Flood Warning until 6pm EDT Sunday for NYZ071>075- 078>081-176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 8pm EDT Sunday for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Coastal Flood Warning until 6pm EDT Sunday for NJZ006-104-106- 108. Marine Storm Warning until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-340-345- 350-353-355-380-383-385. Gale Warning until 6pm EDT Sunday for ANZ338. |
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