Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Tonight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft By Midnight.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Mon...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. Light Rain Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...E Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Light Rain.|
|Wed...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 6 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. Rain Likely.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
318am EST Sat Feb 22 2020
High pressure remains in control through Monday. Weakening low pressure approaches from the south and west Monday night, stalling south of the region on Tuesday as a frontal boundary. A stronger area of low pressure approaches on Wednesday and moves across the area Wednesday night and Thursday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
High pressure will be centered to our southwest today. Low RH up through the upper levels results in a sunny day. 925mb temperatures are forecast to warm up by around 6 degrees C from yesterday afternoon, so highs will return closer to normal after a couple of days being below normal.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Monday
Mainly clear conditions continue tonight and Sunday with high pressure still in control, centered to our south. Radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall into the teens in the coldest spots, but most suburbs will be in the 20s, and the city will see lows 30-35. 925mb temps rise to 1-2C Sunday afternoon, so expecting highs generally around 50 for most locations, but lower- mid 50s in the city and nearby areas of NE NJ.
High pressure weakens over the area on Monday. Clouds begin to lower and thicken through the day ahead of the next storm system, but it will remain dry through the day. High temperatures again will be above normal.
Long Term - Monday Night Through Friday
A split jet stream flow pattern will be in place Monday night with a northern stream shortwave passing across SE Canada and a southern stream shortwave moving across the central States. Models continue the trend of dampening the southern stream wave out faster as it approaches the northeast. The surface low associated with the shortwave weakens as it approaches Monday night. With models trending weaker and dryer with this feature, will now go with a dry forecast for most of the area Monday night. Temperatures aloft and forecast freezing level heigheights suggest that anything that falls Monday night would be rain.
Chances of light rain then increase on Tuesday as the weak wave of low pressure approaches, but now is shaping up to be more like a frontal boundary stalling to our south. Most of the forecast area likely sees some rainfall by day's end. Lift weakens Tuesday night and mid-levels dry out, but with the frontal boundary still nearby, cannot rule out a chance of light rain.
A ridge amplifies along the Western North America on Wednesday leading to a deepening downstream trough over the Central States. The models have continued to come into agreement that this next trough will deepen another surface low stretching across to our south and west on Wednesday, then attempt to consolidate it as it lifts northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. The persistent pattern this winter of inland tracking lows will continue with this system as the consensus of guidance indicates the parent low moves through the eastern Great Lakes with a potential secondary developing nearby us before moving into New England. Plain rain is the most likely precipitation type in this scenario late Wednesday through Wednesday night with mild air in place. Will have to watch if any wrap around precipitation can make it across the region as colder arrives when the low departs Thursday morning, but this looks like a very low probability at this time.
The upper trough becomes a closed low late Thursday into Friday as it tracks across New England. Conditions should dry out with temperatures falling below normal for the end of February.
A moderate westerly flow will be in place today across the waters as high pressure will be centered to our south. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds are still expected on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet today, but occasional gusts to 25 kt will be possible on the remaining ocean waters as well as eastern LI Sound. Have extended the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) into this evening with marginal gusts and seas, but all waters will probably still be below advisory conditions by midnight. A weaker westerly flow then continues overnight and backs towards the SW on Sunday.
Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected on the waters Monday into Tuesday with a weak pressure gradient in place. An approaching low pressure system Tuesday night and Wednesday should help build seas to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels on the ocean. Winds may also gust to around 20 kt on the waters on Wednesday.
No hydrologic issues are expected.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for ANZ350- 353.