Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 6 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sun...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 6 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Sw 5 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds, Becoming Sw 4 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Mon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Sw 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds, Becoming Sw 7 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Occasionally To 11 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 9 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Tue...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Occasionally To 13 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 10 Ft At 7 Seconds. Scattered Rain And Snow Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft After Midnight. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Occasionally To 10 Ft. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 339pm EST Sat Jan 25 2025 Synopsis High pressure over the region shifts to the south and east tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front moves across the area Sunday. High pressure briefly returns Sunday night into Monday. A cold frontal passage on Tuesday is followed by a clipper on Wednesday. High pressure then builds in through the rest of the week. Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning Surface high pressure shifts well to the south and east tonight in response to a northern stream upper trough moving north of the Great Lakes with near zonal flow across the region. A surface cold front also approaches. Very weak warm advection, a southwest flow, and increased cloud cover will combine to keep temperatures relatively mild overnight, with lows around normal levels. The deterministic NBM and MOS guidance were blended for overnight lows. Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Monday With near zonal upper flow the surface cold front will pass through the region rather quickly Sunday. And with little moisture and lift, no precipitation is expected. Increased cloudiness from Saturday night into Sunday morning will dissipate with the frontal passage. The airmass change will be subtle with highs Sunday, and lows Sunday night near normal levels once again. There may be a few high clouds Sunday night in association with a weak vort max and shortwave moving through the area. Weak upper troughiness persists Monday and yet another frontal system approaches. Weak surface high pressure that builds in briefly Sunday night shifts south Monday. Once again temperatures will be near, or just under normal, but with a gusty west flow temperatures will feel nearly 10 degrees colder. Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday Two main systems in the extended. The first is a cdfnt on Tue. The modeling is generally dry, including the NBM Probability of Precipitation output, but with steepening lapse rates and some llevel instability, thinking is that some scattered activity possible. The NAM has some CAPE modeled over the area. The best dpva however is N of the cwa, and moisture is limited, so confidence is not high. As a result, manually went with scattered 30 probability of precipitation for Tue. The next sys is a clipper on Wed. Best precipitation chances along and N of the surface low track. Although the timing seems to be in pretty good agreement amongst the models, the exact position of the low is still uncertain, with the 12Z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) further N than the GFS. Both models however bring the cwa into the warm sector attm, with the track roughly along or N of the Mass Pike. Cannot rule out a track ending up further S, but for now will continue to follow the consensus modeling and keep the low N of the area, resulting in milder temps and lower precipitation chances and amounts. The NBM was bringing in additional probability of precipitation for Fri and Fri night with the next sys in the pipeline, but based on the 12Z modeling this seems too soon so kept the forecast dry until Sat night, where chances for a wintry mix were introduced. Otherwise, the forecast temps follow the NBM with minor tweaks. A bit windy on Tuesday with mild wswly flow ahead of the cdfnt becoming nwly. Marine An increasing pressure gradient force will allow for southwesterly wind gusts to approach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels across all but the New York Harbor waters this evening. The increased pressure gradient is in response to high pressure shifting to the south as low pressure approaches and passes to the north, with an associated cold front. Also, ocean seas will be building to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels tonight. The cold front passes through the waters during Sunday and a strong and gusty westerly flow develops in the wake of the front. Therefore, have expanded the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to encompass all the forecast waters during Sunday. High pressure building behind the cold front late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night will allow for winds and gusts to diminish, and the non ocean waters should be below advisory levels by early evening. However, ocean seas and gusts will be slower to subside, so have extended the ocean SCA (Small Craft Advisory) until 06Z Monday. With high pressure weakening during Monday with the approach of yet another frontal system wind gusts across the forecast waters, and ocean seas, may increase up to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels, and another advisory may be needed. Gales are possible on Tue. A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may be needed on Wed, with the possibility of gales on Thu. Cond close to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels on Fri. Hydrology No hydrologic impacts are expected tonight-Sat. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 7am to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 1am EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355. |
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