Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds, Becoming W 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. Chance Of Light Freezing Spray Until Early Morning. |
| Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds, Becoming Sw 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 7 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening. |
| Thu...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 7 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 6 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Snow Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Snow Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 653pm EST Tuesday Jan 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes made to forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Near zero wind chills into this morning. 2.) Temperatures moderate briefly Wednesdaypm into Thursday. 3.) Prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures from Friday into early next week. 4.) High uncertainty with late weekend storm. .KEY MESSAGE 1... W winds do weaken into tonight as high pressure settles in just south of the area. Thus there will be more of a noticeable wind chill through the first half of the night. Minimum wind chill readings should get down into the single digits once again. After midnight the winds will get light, especially for some of the sheltered non-urban locations. This will get actual air temperatures down into the lower teens to around 10 above, otherwise actual wind chills before the winds shut off will be in the single digits. Quite cold no matter whether the wind is blowing or not. .KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will then move offshore into Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will establish a return flow as the winds acquire a southerly component. Thus, temperatures recover and get close to average for this time of year during the afternoon. A weak warm front approaches and ushers in even milder air for later Wednesday night into Thursday. The warm front may trigger some light snow across northeastern sections, and some snow / rain showers across portions of Long Island early Wednesday night, but no impacts are anticipated. Afterwards, temperatures Thursday should reach the lower and middle 40s. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A longwave upper trough across the eastern half of North America will continue to send arctic air southward into the lower 48, east of the Rockies. Multiple pieces of the polar vortex descend southward during this time. The first shot sending an arctic cold front through the area Friday. The core of the cold air will move into the area Friday night into Saturday. A reinforcing shot will then follow Sunday night into Monday behind low pressure moving off the east coast, but not quite as cold as the first. After near freezing highs on Friday, temperatures will plummet with lows Saturday morning in the single digits to around 10 at the coast, and daytime highs likely not getting out of the teens. This will also be accompanied by a gusty W/NW flow that will produce wind chill values below zero Friday night. There is the chance for cold weather hazards. Sunday into Monday will be slightly warmer with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits inland to the lower teens as the coast. .KEY MESSAGE 4... There continues to be a lot of uncertainty with the track of low pressure developing along the east coast Sunday and passing to the south and east Sunday night into Monday. Recent trends in the both the dynamical and AI models are clearly trending toward a more southward suppression of the storm track. The GFS (Global Forecast System) in particular is the most suppressed, keeping the area dry. Even the Canadian which is still fairly wet, has shown a trend in the highest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast axis to shift south. The latest long term NBM (13Z) has come up with chances of snow, but based on trends in the 12Z guidance wanted to keep chance Probability of Precipitation no higher than 50 percent. NBM probabilities for snow amounts of 6 inches or more Sunday into Monday rage from 40 percent inland, to around 60 percent across Long Island and southern portions of the NYC metro. The main reason for the differences in the guidance are likely due to the amount of interaction between the southern and northern branches of the polar jet. The 12Z guidance is showing less phasing with the GFS leaving much of the energy behind across northern Mexico. Bottom line, we are not out of the woods yet on an accumulating snowfall event for the region on Sunday, but the next 24-48h will be critical to see if models find some continuity and lock on better to a solution. Marine Small craft conditions wane mainly from west to east through this evening and into a portion of the overnight further east out on the ocean. Otherwise, sub small craft conditions should prevail into the first half of Wednesday. Later Wednesday into Wednesday night small craft conditions return for at least the ocean and possibly some of the non-ocean waters. During Thursday small craft conditions may spread across the remainder of the waters. Marginal small craft conditions will then likely remain for the ocean through Thursday night. An Arctic cold frontal passage Friday afternoon should then bring SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions to all waters Friday afternoon/night, with W-NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and occasional gusts to 35 kt on the ocean, and seas 5-7 ft. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions should continue on the ocean Sat into Sun, with NW-N flow gusting to 25-30 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt may also be possible on the non ocean waters as well Sat night. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for ANZ332- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. |
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