Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Today...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 5 Seconds, Becoming Sw 7 Ft At 7 Seconds. Showers With Isolated Tstms. |
| Sun...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 35 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Occasionally To 11 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 8 Ft At 8 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 30 To 35 Kt, Diminishing To 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Occasionally To 13 Ft. Wave Detail: W 9 Ft At 7 Seconds And Sw 7 Ft At 8 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Occasionally To 11 Ft. Wave Detail: W 9 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 209am EST Sat Nov 15 2025 Synopsis High pressure nearby shifts offshore today, as a warm front approaches from the south and west. The front lifts through the region into this evening, with an attendant cold front moving through tonight. The departing system exits into the Canadian Maritime on Sunday, with high pressure building back in from the west through mid next week. A frontal system may then impact the region Thursday into Friday. Near Term - Through Tonight Ridging briefly builds in today with surface high pressure in place. Northern branch shortwave dives south from Ontario, breaking down the ridging and carving out a trough over the Northeast into the latter half of the weekend. After the cold, frosty start with most in the 20s and 30s, temperatures rebound into the upper 40s this afternoon. Conditions remain dry through the day with the ridging, though cloud cover thickens and lowers late as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Flow turns SW or S this afternoon as the surface high drifts off the Jersey shore, and WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) then continues as the warm front moves through and temperatures rise into the 50s through the evening. Rain overspreads generally from west to east after sunset, with showers developing into the NYC metro by early evening. Can't entirely rule out a few embedded rumbles of thunder with the activity, 00Z HREF progs max elevated instability (MUCAPE) of a hundred joules or two, mainly for coastal areas. Attendant cold front with the frontal system sweeps east after midnight, and likely brings a quick-moving moving band of showers along and just ahead of it. Conditions then dry out overnight into Sunday AM. The system is rather progressive, and duration and rates should keep Quantitative Precipitation Forecast relatively low, a few tenths for NYC, NE NJ, and the lower Hudson Valley, and up to a half inch or so across LI and SE CT. Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night In the wake of the exiting frontal system, increasing WNW flow and Cold Air Advection as the low deepens into the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure builds in from the west. WNW winds increase Sunday morning, gusting 30 to 35 mph across the region through the day. Likely see a few gusts top 40 mph, though appears to fall shy of Wind Advisory at this time. The flow weakens just slightly by Monday, but remaining gusty nonetheless, 25 to 30 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures on Sunday likely occur overnight into the early morning, before remaining steady or falling a few degrees through the day with the cold gusty wind. Monday will be the colder day, into the mid 40s for most, but with the winds should feel like the 30s much of the day. Can't rule out a few streamers making it into the local area from the northwest with cyclonic flow off the Lakes on Sunday, but confidence in coverage and occurrence too low at this point to include in forecast. Impacts minimal regardless outside any brief heavier shower. Otherwise, predominantly dry weather expected through early week. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday Key points: * The winds diminish Tuesday with light to calm winds into mid week. * Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, moderating to normal Thursday, and slightly above normal Friday. * Likely dry through at least Thursday afternoon with rain chances increasing for Thursday night and Friday. Too early to have any confidence regarding impacts. Relatively high confidence forecast through Thursday. Uncertainty increases Thursday night into Friday surrounding the track and timing of low pressure that would appear to pass to our north at some point late in the week. Did not stray from NBM during this period. NBM is reasonably close to AI GEFS and AI EPS regarding track and timing as implied by NBM wind fields. With that said, it appears that the global deterministic models may have just started converging on a solution with a slower timing of the system and its potential impacts. Marine Winds and ocean seas increase this evening with a frontal system moving through the region. The system exits on Sunday, with strong winds expected to develop behind it and gale conditions could persist through much of Monday on some waters. Small Craft Advisory goes into effect on local ocean waters at 23Z this evening, and 3Z tonight on all other waters, as wind gusts toward 25 kt develop and ocean seas build over 5 ft. Gale Watch remains in effect on all waters Sunday with gusty westerly flow expected to develop behind the frontal system. The watch was extended through the day Monday, with highest confidence on the ocean at this time. Winds and seas begin to improve late Monday as high pressure builds in, and sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected to return to all waters by Tuesday, then remaining so through midweek. Hydrology There are no hydrologic concerns through the entire forecast period. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 6am EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6am EST Sunday for ANZ345-350-353-355. |
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