Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 1 Ft At 2 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 8 Seconds. Showers Likely With Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers And Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. |
| Mon...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft, Building To 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Sw 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. Showers And Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Sw 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. Showers And Chance Of Tstms. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. Showers Likely With Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 345pm EDT Sunday July 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in flash flooding potential has increased, although the exact location of the heaviest rainfall/greatest flooding still remains somewhat uncertain. A Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding has been expanded to include portions of southern NY (excluding NYC and Long Island) and northern New Jersey this evening through tonight and across the majority of the area (excluding far eastern Long Island) for Monday and Monday night. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Monday and Monday night (see Marine discussion below). .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms this afternoon through late Monday could lead to scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding. Flooding may be locally significant. 2) A few storms may produce strong wind gusts this afternoon into this evening. .KEY MESSAGE 1... A stationary front will remain to the south of the local area through late Monday. Multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms are anticipated as a series of shortwaves ride along the boundary through late Monday and possibly into Tuesday. Showers/storms will likely be most widespread to the north and southwest of NYC through early this afternoon, although some CAMs are hinting at showers/storms filling in to the east after 21Z/5pm and especially after 00Z/8pm this evening. Expect showers and storms to be more widespread Monday and Monday night as better upper level support/jet energy moves into the region. Conditions are still favorable for torrential rainfall rates/flooding through late Monday due to a very humid air mass over the region and a Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday night. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will be around 2 inches areawide, although PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of 2+ inches may periodically advect into the southern portion of the area, which is higher than daily max sounding climatology values. Mean flow will largely be parallel to the frontal boundary so training is likely with potential for backbuilding. 12Z HREF neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches of rain in 3 hours highligheights portions of the western Hudson Valley and western local NJ counties in a 30 percent contour for this evening into tonight, which is typically a good indication of flash flooding potential for this area. WPC has expanded a Moderate ERO into this area to highlight the enhanced flash flood potential. The flash flood risk may shift a bit farther eastward on Monday and similar HREF probabilities are in place over portions of the NYC metro area Monday afternoon with up to 50 percent across portions of NJ. A Moderate ERO has been introduced to the entire CWA (County Warning Area) for Monday/Monday night. Flooding impacts would be highest in urban and poor drainage areas in addition to the most responsive rivers/creeks/streams. In terms of rainfall amounts, storm total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast through Tuesday will likely range between 2 and 3 inches with locally higher amounts of 4+ inches. Rainfall rates will likely be 1-2 inches per hour with locally higher rates possible. The main area of uncertainty with the forecast is where the highest rainfall totals and resulting flooding will occur and will depend on the exact placement of the frontal boundary. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Given the moist environment, a few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight, although the threat is rather isolated/low given lack of shear/instability. Any stronger thunderstorms would be related to wet downbursts in any storms that manage to grow decent cores. The best chance of thunderstorms will be across NJ, the Hudson Valley, NYC, and western Long Island. Marine A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Long Island Sound from late Monday morning into late Monday night and from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point in addition to the South Shore Bays 6am Tuesday morning. East to east-northeast wind gusts to 25 to as high as near 30 knots and waves of 4 to periodically 5 feet are expected during this time. Waves may remain elevated into Tuesday. Rip Currents A low risk is expected for today. Increasing E flow should increase the risk back to moderate for Monday. Flow continues to shift out of the NE but given persisting E/SE swell a moderate is maintained for Tuesday. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Flood Watch through late Monday night for CTZ005>012. NY...Flood Watch through late Monday night for NYZ067>075-078>081- 176>179. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ069>075- 176-178. NJ...Flood Watch through late Monday night for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. Air Quality Alert until 11pm EDT this evening for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 11am Monday to 2am EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-340. Small Craft Advisory from 11am Monday to 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ345-350-353. |
New York Radar
Northeast Radar
East Coast Satellite