Marine Weather Net

Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN

NW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ350 Forecast Issued: 753 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W Late. Seas Around 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Evening. Patchy Fog Early This Evening, Then Areas Of Fog Late This Evening And Overnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm, Decreasing To Less Than 1 Nm Late This Evening And Overnight.
Sun...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas Around 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. Areas Of Fog In The Morning. Vsby Less Than 1 Nm In The Morning.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 7 Seconds.
Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds.
Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 7 Seconds.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft.
Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Chance Of Showers.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
807pm EDT Sat July 13 2024

Synopsis
A weak frontal boundary washes out offshore tonight. High pressure returns Sunday with a thermal trough setting up over the region Monday and Tuesday. A cold front then approaches from the west on Wednesday, moving offshore Thursday. High pressure builds in for the end of the week.

Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning
Airmass largely capped as a weak cold front settles south and east across the forecast area this evening. The few showers noted over the Lower Hudson Valley have weakened and expect this trend to continue. Additional activity across NW CT also should quickly weaken as it drops SE.

The other concern tonight will be with fog development due to weak flow and lingering low level moisture. Confidence is not high where fog will develop, but there appears to be a higher probability across Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Left mention of fog out of forecast over the NYC metro, but will also include patchy fog for inland areas. The fog could become locally dense near the coast if it does develop. Lows will range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s near the coast.

Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Sunday Night
Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of NE NJ, NYC metro, and Nassau County beginning noon on Sunday.

A broad upper trough will persist over the region on Sunday. Weak high pressure returns, but a thermal surface trough will develop over the region by Sunday afternoon. The flow aloft will also predominately be westerly, which should help dew points mix out into the middle to upper 60s in the afternoon, especially away from the coast. Models continue showing 850 mb temps mostly 17-19C during the afternoon, highest west of the NYC metro. Afternoon sea breezes are likely to develop, so dew points near coastal locations may not be able to have dew points mix out a bit. There is a good consensus among the guidance for highs to reach the upper 80s and lower 90s, warmest across NE NJ, NYC, and interior Lower Hudson Valley and interior southwest CT. Heat indices will peak at or just above 95 over the urban corridor in NE NJ, NYC metro, and Nassau. It is possible that some locations near the south coast fall just short of a 95 heat index. Elsewhere, max heat indices should reach the upper 80s and low 90s.

There may be some weak shortwave energy within the aforementioned broad trough. However, model soundings indicate middle level capping. This will prevent any substantial instability. The NBM is showing a slight chance Probability of Precipitation west of the NYC metro, but feel this may be overdone given the capping and weak instability. Will keep Probability of Precipitation below 15 percent west of NYC with this update.

Warm and muggy conditions continue Sunday night. Confidence in any fog or low stratus is low at this time with westerly flow increasing above the surface. Will keep sky conditions mostly clear with lows generally in the 70s.

Long Term - Monday Through Saturday
Main points:

* Heat wave likely to continue through Wednesday with hot and humid conditions. Max heat indices forecast from the upper 90s to low 100s. Potential for 105 urban and interior locations on Tuesday.

* Chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly late afternoon into the evening for Monday and Tuesday. Best chance to the north and west of NYC. A more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms exists for Wednesday into Wednesday night with a cold front.

Expect high heat and humidity during this time frame with the forecast area residing at the southern edge of the westerlies. Not only will very warm temperatures be advected into the region in a deep-layered WSW flow, but less capping and shortwave energy brings the potential for a late day/evening MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) moving in from the west. This could further complicate the temperature forecast with convective debris from upstream convection.

As for temperatures, stayed close to the NBM, but there is the potential for slightly higher values, especially since there is not much spread in the box and whisker plots and the deterministic forecast is generally below the 50th percentile. A target of opportunity for this forecast will be the dew points, which will be critical in how high heat indices get. In previous high event this summer, there was more of a maritime influence, especially for coastal locations. Deep mixing and more of a S/SW low-level flow should help to transport some slightly lower dew point air to the surface. Thus, to knock down the NBM dew points a bit, used a blend of the CONSALL with the NBM. This keeps dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s during the times of max heating. Regardless, heat indices will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s, possibly around 105 Tuesday across the urban corridor, Lower Hudson Valley, and interior SW CT. Should higher dew points be achieved, then the likelihood for Excessive Heat criteria would increase. For the time, have held off on any watches, but Heat Advisories are in effect Monday and Tuesday for all but SE coastal CT and SE Suffolk on LI.

The best chance of convection looks to be on Wednesday/Wednesday night as a cold front works across the area. There is some uncertainty to the eastward progression of the front, and chances linger into Thursday. Also, as previously mentioned, MCS development at the southern end of the westerlies Monday and Tuesday will need to be watched. High pressure then builds in for the end of the week with temperatures closer to normal.

Marine
Seas east of Moriches Inlet have subsided below 5 ft. Therefore, the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has been cancelled. A relatively weak pressure gradient tonight through Sunday night will lead to conditions below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels.

Winds and seas largely remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through the middle of next week. Ocean seas get to 5 ft Wednesday into Thursday as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front.

Hydrology
No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through the rest of the weekend.

Given an abundantly moist air mass in place, any thunderstorms that develop early to mid next week will have the potential to produce locally heavy downpours that result in nuisance flooding, particularly in urban and poor drainage areas.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
A high rip current risk continues for all beaches this evening, and then through Sunday evening for the beaches of southeastern Suffolk county. A southerly swell of 4 ft 7s will be slow to subside into Monday. RCMOS and NWPS are generally in good agreement with the high risk for the far eastern beaches. A moderate risk can be expected elsewhere.

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...
Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 10pm EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>011. NY...
Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 10pm EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>071-078>080.
Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10pm EDT Tuesday for NYZ072>075-176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents until 9pm EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-178-179. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NYZ081. NJ...
Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 10pm EDT Tuesday for NJZ002.
Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10pm EDT Tuesday for NJZ004- 006-103>108.

Marine
None.