Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Chance Of Light Freezing Spray.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
| 536 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
Weak surface low pressure to our north will send a cold front across the waters tonight. High pressure builds in from the west Saturday and Saturday night, and settles over the region Sunday. The high weakens Monday as low pressure approaches. The low passes south of the area Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of next week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
540am EST Fri Jan 22 2021
A cold front moves across the region today. High pressure then builds in from the west Saturday and Saturday night, and settles over the region Sunday. The high weakens Monday as low pressure approaches. The low passes south of the area Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Forecast generally on track this morning. Just a few minor adjustments to reflect latest observations.
Otherwise, an upper level low will remain well north of the region today. As this low slowly moves eastward, it will send a cold front across the region. There is not a lot of moisture to work with as the front moves through, so expect a mostly dry day. There is however a chance of a few light snow showers or flurry north and west of NYC. Otherwise, expect a mix of clouds and sun. Winds will be from the west-northwest with gusts to 25-30 mph.
High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal, generally in the low 40s.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Saturday
High pressure west of the region starts to build into the area tonight. The combination of the low to the north and the arriving high, the pressure gradient will tighten over the region. Expecting a breezy night with winds becoming more northwesterly. Wind speeds will remain between 10-15 mph, with gusts into the 20s. In addition, a decent shot of cold air advection moves into the region. Lows overnight will fall into the lower 20s. Can not rule out a few locations reaching the teens, however the winds may prevent this from occurring. Conditions overnight will remain dry.
A cold airmass will be in place for Saturday with a gusty northwest flow as temperatures are expected to be a few degrees below seasonal normals, with wind chills in the teens and lower 20s.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
The northern stream will somewhat remain dominate and progressive Saturday night into Monday. A ridge builds into the northeast and mid Atlantic coast by Sunday and then weakens as a northern stream trough moves into eastern Canada Sunday night and Monday.
Saturday night the gusty northwest flow gradually diminishes as the cold airmass remains and temperatures will be around 5 degrees below normal. Wind chill values will be mostly in the single digits.
Meanwhile a southern stream shortwave moves out of the southwest and quickly reaches the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. There is some phasing of the northern and southern stream Tuesday into Tuesday night, however, the southern stream surface low will dominate as the surface low reaches the Ohio Valley by 00Z Tuesday. There remain some differences in the guidance with the timing and placement of another low developing off the mid Atlantic coast Monday night and tracking east into the Atlantic through Tuesday night. The trends remain to keep the low to the south of the area as arctic high pressure to the north noses down along the northeast coast. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) continues to be the furtherest north with the low, while the GFS and Canadian keep the precipitation shield across the southern portions of the forecast area. Will keep the probabilities at chance throughout the region for late Monday night through Tuesday. The airmass remains cold and precipitation is expected to be in the form of light snow.
Thereafter high pressure returns for later Tuesday into Thursday. And the is a chance another low moves south of the area late Thursday.
Low pressure to the north and east of the waters and strong high pressure well to the west will set up a steep pressure gradient of west to northwest flow. This will get further enhanced with cold air advection tonight into Saturday behind a cold front.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) in effect for all waters today through tonight with gusts up to 25 kt expected and a few 30 kt gusts possible from time to time. Then, a further increase in pressure gradient Saturday will allow for potential gales across all waters. The forecast will have these gales mainly across the ocean and non-ocean waters surrounding Eastern Long Island. Winds start to decrease more noticeably late Saturday night. Gale watch in effect for all waters Saturday through Saturday evening. The gale watch continues for all of Saturday night for the Eastern Long Island Bays and Eastern Long Island Sound as well as the ocean zones.
High pressure will build in slowly from the west Saturday and Saturday night, and wind gusts will be gradually diminishing below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Sunday, with ocean seas below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) by late day Sunday. Sub advisory conditions are then expected across all the waters from late Sunday night through Tuesday night as high pressure gradually weakens with approaching low pressure to the south.
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the upcoming weekend. No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through the middle of next week.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for ANZ335-338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EST Saturday for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for ANZ330-340-350-353-355.