Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Overnight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 10 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 117am EDT Thu April 25 2024 Synopsis Strong high pressure builds in overnight through Friday, and then slowly gives way to a warm front that moves through the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Weak high pressure briefly follows through Monday. A cold front will then approach on Tuesday, passing Wednesday morning. Near Term - Until 6am This Morning Updated for current conditions. Based on latest obs/trends, readings across the area are currently a few degrees warmer than forecast. There is uncertainty whether the cold advection overnight and diminishing winds will be able to offset these trends sufficiently to get as low as forecast. Have raised temps a couple of degrees in spots, but will maintain freeze warnings across the interior for temps dropping to around freezing. Some mid level cloudiness may linger near the coast overnight, otherwise high pressure builds in from northwest. Winds will slowly diminish, especially across the interior. The combination of a colder airmass and diminishing winds will result in lows overnight about 10 degrees below normal. Much of the interior will drop to around of just below the freezing mark. Coastal locations will drop to about 35 to 40. Frost does not look like a concern with a large dew point/temperature spread, but perhaps patchy. .SHORT TERM /6am THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry and cool conditions continue for Thursday as the strong Canadian high pressure continues to build in from the northwest and an upper level trough sets up across the Northeast then pushes east later in the day. An upper level ridge over the mid-West amplifies and slowly heads east Thursday night through Saturday with the ridge axis just moving over the area late in the day Saturday into Saturday night. As previously mentioned, cool conditions continue Thursday. Some modification in the air mass expected for Friday, but it should remain seasonably cool. Highs on Thursday will be in the middle to upper 50s, then upper 50s to lower 60s for Friday. Slightly colder temperatures are expected Thursday night as compared to tonight with clear skies and calmer winds. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the 20s across the interior and Pine Barrens of Long Island. Will have to monitor for potential of Frost Advisory/Freeze Watch for these areas with the subsequent forecast overnight tonight and tomorrow. Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday Not much has changed with regards to the long-term forecast. An omega block over the eastern CONUS will be a predominate feature through the weekend and early next week, with its western leg over the central states and multiple shortwaves lifting NE through the Plains states and upper Great Lakes, its eastern leg over the Canadian Maritimes and adjacent Atlantic, and an upper ridge over the East. The first of the shortwaves lifting through the Plains and Great Lakes will send a warm front toward the area Sat night that should then lift through on Sunday, with low chance for showers mainly inland. A warming trend will then follow, with temps well above normal especially from the NYC metro area north/west, with highs well into the lower/mid 70s on Sunday and either side of 80 on Mon. Most of Long Island and SE CT should be cooler, with highs in the 60s, to low-70s on Mon, due to onshore flow and afternoon sea breezes, also some intrusion of cooler maritime air from the east depending on the position and intensity of low pressure developing well to the east over the Atlantic. The omega block should start to break down on Tue, with the upper ridge weakening and a cold front approaching from the west, bringing the chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms as moisture increases ahead of it, particularly as it moves through early on Wednesday. Temps on Tuesday should continue to be on the mild side, with highs in the 60s across much of S CT/Long Island, and in the 70s across the NYC metro area north/west and interior S CT. Per NBM 50th/75th percentile forecasts, temps early next week have potential to be a few degrees warmer than fcst, possibly upper 70s to mid 80s on Mon, and mid 70s to lower 80s on Tue, depending on both the strength of the ridge and onshore flow. Marine The Coastal Waters Forecast with wave component details is operational. Winds and gusts have been running lower than forecast, and based on latest guidance have trended lower with both into Thursday morning. Will leave the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) in place and re evaluate with the forecast issuance later this morning. With building high pressure, winds and gusts gradually diminish below advisory levels by late tonight. Ocean seas will remain elevated into Thursday morning, and then subside below 5 feet. A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect on the ocean waters until 1000am EDT Thursday. With a weak pressure gradient later Thursday through Friday night, with high pressure in control, winds and seas will remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters. Quiet this weekend into early next week with winds/seas below advisory criteria. S-SW flow up to 15 kt after a warm frontal passage could briefly push ocean seas up to 4 ft late day Sunday into Sunday evening. Fog may also become possible Sunday night as more humid air traverses colder waters. Hydrology No hydrologic concerns through early next week. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Freeze Warning until 9am EDT this morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Freeze Warning until 9am EDT this morning for NYZ067>070. NJ...Freeze Warning until 9am EDT this morning for NJZ002-103. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT this morning for ANZ350- 353-355. |
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