Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Sat...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 449am EDT Thu April 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High temperatures for today increased by a significant amount across portions of the NY and CT coasts. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight and Friday, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. 3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will usher in much colder weather for the beginning of next week, including subfreezing temperatures Monday night. .KEY MESSAGE 1... Today looks like the last hot day of the forecast period. High temps in the 80s to around 90 for most of the area. Had to manually boost temps well above the NBM for the CT and NY coasts. Brought Montauk up by 11 degrees above the NBM, which may still end up being too little. Still warm and above normal on Fri, but high temps only in the 70s and low 80s with falling heigheights and chcs for showers and thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A few cells may still Probability of Precipitation early this morning with outflow passing thru the cwa. No upper support so this convection should be limited in extent and intensity. Unstable today, particularly N and W, but with the lack of a trigger tstm development is expected to be low probability attm. Still something to watch in the mesoscale as the day goes on due to expected CAPE and a lack of CIN. The next best chances are this eve and tngt as heigheights fall and the surface boundary drops swd into the area. The surface boundary looks a bit too displaced from the upper support tngt to support a solid focus and high confidence in development. Stuck with the NBM probability of precipitation which are only slight chc. Timing of the upper trough for Fri seems a bit too early for optimal tstm support attm. A six hour difference could allow for this to act on enough CAPE to produce some strong low topped convection. For now the NBM was followed which indicates chances for showers thru the day. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Shwrs and embedded thunderstorms likely on Sunday with a cold frontal passage. Timing will determine the nature of any svr threat. The GFS (Global Forecast System) and AI-GFS right now look a little too quick to support a big event with the front already into the area at 12Z. It is still a powerful upper low with a H3 jet modeled at 130+kt, so precipitation is still likely with the sys. NW winds kick in behind the front and temps plummet by late in the day with lingering areas of rain. The cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) aloft builds in Monday with 1000-500mb thicknesses around 520dam. The steep lapse rates should allow for at least isold-scattered shwrs, possibly mixed with snow or ice pellets. The NBM probability of precipitation may be a bit too low. Some spots across the interior may drop below freezing Sun ngt, then much of the area could drop below freezing Monday ngt. MGJ MOS climo is 39, and the MEX is already producing 29 Sunday night and 25 Monday ngt. Marine Waves across the eastern ocean waters may briefly build to around 5 ft tngt, otherwise conditions will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will likely bring SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Sunday and Monday. Climate Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK:60/2002 KISP: 61/2002 NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine None. |
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