Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft This Afternoon. Wave Detail: S 1 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds, Becoming S 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds, Becoming S 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: S 6 Ft At 6 Seconds. Showers And Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 240am EDT Sunday August 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rainfall amounts have been lowered for this evening through Monday morning. WPC has moved the marginal risk for excessive rainfall tonight to only include NE NJ, NYC, and western Long Island. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and a few thunderstorms this evening through a portion of Monday morning may produce locally heavy downpours. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is the main concern, but a localized flash flood risk exists close to the coast. 2) Dry with near normal temperatures Monday night through Wednesday before the next chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday night into Thursday. .KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure shifts offshore through this afternoon. A warm front gradually approaches from the southwest with warm advection increasing into the evening. Most of the daytime will be dry, but a shower cannot be ruled out late in the afternoon well north and west of the NYC metro. Ahead of the warm front this afternoon will be a decaying convective complex moving out of central/eastern PA into the region this evening. The complex will likely just be an area of showers as it races ahead of the greatest instability axis, which will reside well to our south and west. While an isolated heavy downpour or thunderstorms is possible within this complex, most of the showers will be on the moderate to light side. The majority of this activity will most likely occur across the western half of the area, so parts of SE CT and eastern LI may remain mostly dry through the first half of the night. The warm front will then make its closest approach to the southern portion of the area overnight into early Monday morning. A weak wave of low pressure is still forecast to develop along the warm front and then move over or just south of the area late tonight into Monday morning. This will support the development of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Instability should increase somewhat, but will be dependent on how far north the warm front and the resulting track of the low. If the low and front remain south of Long Island, showers may end up mostly on the moderate side with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm/heavy downpour, mainly confined to the southern half of the area. If the low and front end up further north over or just north of Long Island, the showers and a few thunderstorms, could be locally heavy at times, especially across portions of the NYC metro, Long Island, and southern CT. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) should be able to climb to around 2 inches. However, the progressive nature to the system along with limited instability should prevent anything more than minor/urban poor drainage flooding and a localized flash flood risk. The risk of any localized flash flooding would most likely end up late tonight/early Monday morning when the warm front and low pressure are closest to the area. WPC has trimmed back the marginal risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding to include only NE NJ, NYC metro and western Long Island. This is supported by continued trends in all deterministic global, AI models, and the latest CAMs. Average rainfall amounts range three tenths across interior Lower Hudson Valley to one half to three quarters most elsewhere. An inch is possible across eastern Long Island. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out in any heavier downpours. There is no severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon and evening. The limited instability should keep the threat minimal overnight/Monday morning. However, will have to watch near and along the warm front/low pressure late tonight/early Monday if instability were to increase more than currently forecast. Any lingering showers across E Long Island and SE Connecticut should end around mid Monday morning. A trailing cold front/surface trough will move across the area late in the day, which may be enough to support scattered shower and isolated thunder development. The higher probability (chance) resides inland and across NE NJ and NYC metro. Cannot rule out a brief locally heavy downpour. Further east the chances are much lower due to subsidence from behind the passing low pressure. .KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build over the area Monday night through the middle of the week. This will lead to dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. Models continue to come into better agreement with the next shortwave trough and associated cold front moving over the northeast late Wednesday night into Thursday. Much of the energy and lift may pass well to the NW, limiting potential for showers/thunderstorms. However, there is still some ensemble spread which is captured well with the NBM. Probability of Precipitation increase late Wednesday night and continue in the chance range through Thursday afternoon. Uncertainty is much higher for the end of the week/start of next weekend. High pressure may build over the northeast, but the front that moves through Thursday may stall to our south. Some of the guidance hints at a few waves of low pressure riding along the front. It remains to be seen if any unsettled weather will occur heading into next weekend. The current NBM precipitation probabilities indicate a slight chance on Friday and chance next Saturday. Marine S flow gradually increases today as the high moves offshore. This will yield potential for 25-30 kt wind gusts on the NY harbor, ocean, and south shore LI Bays. Winds on LI Sound and eastern LI Bays should remain just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. 25 kt wind gusts may linger on the ocean into Monday before subsiding in the late afternoon. Seas will also build into this evening, reaching 5- 7 ft tonight into early Monday. Seas subside Monday afternoon and evening. Conditions will then remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Monday night through Thursday with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place. Rip Currents For today, the rip current risk is moderate for NYC, Nassau and western Suffolk ocean beaches and low for eastern Suffolk ocean beaches remains low into this eve at ocean beaches. Seas will be slow to build and may only reach around 3 ft late in the afternoon for western Beaches. For Monday, the rip current risk is moderate for NYC and Nassau ocean beaches and high for Suffolk ocean beaches. Seas will be subsiding to 3 to 4 ft for Nassau and NYC ocean beaches with a light offshore flow developing through the day. At Suffolk ocean beaches, residual 5 ft seas are expected to continue for much of the day. This could lower to moderate if the higher seas subside faster than currently expected. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 4am EDT Monday for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory from 11pm this evening to 8am EDT Monday for ANZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 11pm this evening to 4pm EDT Monday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 11am EDT Monday for ANZ355. |
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