Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
5 - 10
5 - 10
5 - 10
|Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Hazy This Evening. Patchy Fog After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Wed...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Patchy Fog In The Morning. Hazy. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft. Hazy In The Evening. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. Patchy Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
620pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023
High pressure will remain in control through Friday. A back door cold front will pass through Friday night into early Saturday, followed by high pressure building from the north. Another cold front may pass on Tuesday.
Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning
High pressure remains generally over the area with clear skies into tonight. Hazy skies will persist into this evening with some low- level smoke also over the area. The smoke originated from a couple of wildfires over Nova Scotia and the high pressure is allowing the smoke to filter into our area. This smoke likely lingers over the area tonight.
Otherwise, light onshore flow this afternoon and into this evening will aide in moisture advection with generally clear skies allowing temperatures to drop this evening. As a result, there is a chance of patchy fog and low stratus, especially for coastal areas. Lows tonight will be in the 40s for much of the area with the coolest spots for interior locations. The NYC metro and surrounding areas may not drop out of the 50s.
Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Wednesday Night
High pressure continues to dominate the area with clear skies and generally light winds expected during the day. Some low-level smoke may also linger around the area along with widespread hazy skies. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s and low 80s for the northwestern interior spots with locations closer to the coast in the low to middle 70s.
Another round of low stratus and patchy fog remains possible for Wednesday night with high pressure in place. An increase in surface moisture with onshore flow will prevent lows from dropping lower than 50 for much of the area, the NYC metro may not drop below 60.
Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
Fcst confidence from Thu into daytime Fri fairly high, as an upper ridge to the west and a broad trough to the south both persist. Enough ridging aloft should remain in place to keep the southern sys from impacting our wx, meanwhile we should turn progressively warmer Thu into Fri, with highs in the 80s on Thu away from south facing shores, and reaching the lower 90s NW of NYC on Fri, a good 5-10 deg above normal along the coast and 10-15 deg above normal inland.
Timing of a back door cold frontal passage Fri night/Sat still in question, with the GFS (Global Forecast System) faster than the ECMWF. Because of this kept high temps on Sat a little warmer than NBM, with near 80 NW of NYC and reaching the mid/upper 70s elsewhere. As high pressure to the north builds in through the rest of the weekend, temps should trend to within a few degrees either side of normal from Sunday through Tuesday, with Sunday the coolest of the three days (upper 60s east to mid 70s west).
Another cold front may pass on Tue. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFS are in close agreement with the 30/12Z cycle, but run-to-run timing and position of weather systems has been inconsistent given model difficulty handling the overall blocky pattern aloft extending from eastern NoAm across the northern Atlantic, so frontal passage could be delayed into Wed.
Any remaining gusts near 25 kt and ocean seas near 5 feet should diminish this evening. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are then expected for all waters through at least Friday night.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) cond should return to the ocean and the eastern Sound/bays daytime Sat after a back door cold frontal passage, with NE flow gusting to 25-30 kt (highest on the ocean), and ocean seas up to 6 ft. Winds diminish Sat night but elevated ocean seas should linger into then, and possibly into part of daytime Sunday on the outer waters closer to 20 nm offshore.
No hydrologic impacts expected through early next week.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
There is a high risk of rip current development for the ocean beaches today with a brisk E flow/swell and surf heigheights 2-3 ft. A moderate risk is expected for Wed/Thu with diminishing winds but with some residual swell.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9pm EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ353- 355.