Marine Weather Net

Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THU

E
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ350 Forecast Issued: 637 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
Tonight...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Showers Early This Evening, Then Showers Late This Evening And Overnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Thu...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Showers Likely.
Thu Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Evening.
Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas Around 4 Ft. Chance Of Showers.
Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Showers In The Morning.
Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.
Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
758pm EDT Wednesday April 17 2024

Synopsis
A slow moving warm front approaches from the southwest and moves through the area into Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for Thursday night into Friday before a cold front passes through Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure then follows from Saturday afternoon through early next week. A weak frontal system will impact the region mid week.

Near Term - Through Thursday
Made minor adjustments to the probabilities this evening, and with little to no CAPE or instability across the region into early this evening have removed mention of thunder.

A high amplitude upper level ridge over southeastern Canada and western New England will start to deamplify over the Mid Atlantic this evening. As this occurs, a weakening stacked low over the Great Lakes region will eventually lift a surface warm front associated with this low will approach from the southwest today.

The warm front will lead to isentropic lift in association with overrunning moisture with rain showers across the region this evening. Instability will continue to be the challenge with the overall thunder potential but given that there has been some lightning upstream the forecast now includes a slight chance of some embedded thunderstorms later this evening. Confidence is low (15%) on the likelihood of widespread mention of thunder especially with a modest low level inversion keeping much of the area stable. The 12z suite of CAMs still indicated the potential for some short lived embedded heavier showers moving through southwestern portions of the forecast area overnight tonight within the New York City metro area.

During the overnight expect the shower coverage to increase although decrease in intensity. As the WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) lift decreases, showers will transition from potentially heavy at times to more of a steady light rain.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal for this time of year.

Short Term - Thursday Night Through Friday Night
Shower coverage looks to lower Thursday as isentropic lift weakens over the area and high pressure building in from the northeast brings in a cooler and drier air mass in the lower levels.

The high building in with the weak low to our south will mean a strengthening easterly flow develops across the area that starts to increase late tonight. It does not look to be overly windy, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts to 25 mph by Thursday morning. Winds start to decrease Thursday afternoon as the high continues to nose into the region, with the weak low well out to sea by this point.

The easterly flow will also mean cooler than normal temperatures for Thursday, with highs only in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Mainly dry conditions from Thursday night (except perhaps some lingering showers for eastern areas) through Friday morning with high pressure over the region. The chances for showers increase Friday afternoon and Friday night as the associated cold front approaches and begins to move through late Friday night.

Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
Little change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the previous forecast/NBM.

A cold front approaches and passes through Friday night into Saturday morning. Moisture will deepen along with a chance of showers with its passage. High pressure then builds in behind the front with dry weather for Saturday afternoon. The high will continue to build into the region through the rest of the weekend and remain in control of the weather through Monday. High temperatures near normal on Saturday, but cooling off slightly for Sunday. Temperatures rebound a few degrees on Monday.

A 500mb trough then shifts through the Great Lakes on Tuesday with an associated weak surface low and cold front. It appears that we should by dry through the day, but cannot rule out a shower for western zones by the end of the day. Rain chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures remain in the lower and middle 60s.

Marine
No changes to the winds and seas at this time.

Winds and seas remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through early evening. However, easterly winds will increase tonight as strengthening high pressure builds in, and by late tonight will likely reach 25 kt on the ocean waters and the entrance to the harbor. A few hours later, all waters will see SCA (Small Craft Advisory) wind gusts. A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in effect for all waters from late tonight through the day on Thursday.

Winds gusts diminish Thursday night as the high continues to build in over the area. Non ocean waters will likely drop below 25 kt early Thursday night. The ocean waters will likely have SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts hang on for the first few hours of Thursday night before they also come down below 25 kt.

Seas build to 4 to 7 ft on the ocean by Thursday morning into the afternoon, diminishing thereafter. However, they remain above or right around 5 ft Thursday night, so an extension to the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) over the ocean may be needed for Thursday night and perhaps into Friday with a persistent, though slowly weakening easterly flow. Waves finally drop below 5 ft on the ocean by Friday night.

High pressure building over the area waters Saturday through the first part of next week should keep conditions sub-advisory waters through at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels for Wednesday with the next low pressure and associated cold front to approach.

Hydrology
There is the potential for 0.25" to 0.75" of rainfall through Thursday afternoon. Although a brief heavy shower is possible, no hydrologic impacts are expected with this event and thereafter through the first half of next week.

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 6pm EDT Thursday for ANZ331- 332-335-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 2am to 6pm EDT Thursday for ANZ338- 350-353-355.