Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt Early, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Scattered Showers, Mainly This Evening. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Early This Evening.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Sat...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
| 406 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
Weak high pressure builds in through Thursday, and then slides east Thursday Night into Friday. A low pressure trough moves in for Friday night into Saturday, while stronger low pressure passes well offshore. A low pressure trough moves in for Friday night into early Saturday, while stronger low pressure passes well offshore. Weak high pressure will follow for Saturday night, then a warm front and wave of low pressure will approach on Sunday and impact the area into Monday. High pressure should return on Tuesday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
446pm EDT Wednesday May 5 2021
Cold front moves through this evening, with high pressure building in through Thursday, and then slides east Thursday Night into Friday. A low pressure trough moves in for Friday night into Saturday, while stronger low pressure passes well offshore. A low pressure trough will move slowly across Friday night into Saturday. A warm front and wave of low pressure will approach Sunday night and move across on Monday. High pressure will then return from the north and west from Monday night into mid week.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
Lead shortwave energy and occluded front over the area, moves east by early evening with moderate shower activity moving east of LI/CT, and then a band of scattered showers moves through this evening with main shortwave trough approach and cold front crossing.
Drying on breezy NW flow in wake of cold front this evening into overnight as departing surface wave gradually strengthens and tracks towards the Canadian Maritimes, and weak high pressure builds into from the west.
Temperatures will be near seasonable with weak caa and mixed low- levels (upper 40s city/coast and mid 40s interior).
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Thursday Night
Mean troughing through the period with closed upper low over Hudsons Bay, and associated northern stream shortwave digging and sharpening through the Ohio and Tennessee valley into SE US by Thursday Night. At the surface, weak high pressure builds into the region from the west on Thursday and gradually east Thursday Night.
A sunny start will likely give way to increasing high/mid deck in the afternoon ahead of sharpening trough to the west. A breezy start to the day (gusts 20 to 25 mph) in tightened gradient between building high and departing low should gradually subside as high pressure exerts more influence.
High temps slightly below seasonable in Canadian continental airmass (lower 60s interior, mid 60s city/coast). Light winds Thursday night as high pressure moves through, with generally seasonable temps for urban centers, but if high/mid deck thins out potential for some radiational cooling across far outlying areas into the 30s. Low prob of some patchy frost.
Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
For Fri-Sat the area will be in a squeeze play between offshore low pressure passing well south/east and a long wave upper trough approaching from the west. A surface trough reflection will accompany the upper trough, with some interaction occurring with the offshore surface low. This should lead to sct-numerous showers Fri night into Sat. Global model forecast TT 50+ suggests potential for isolated thunder, which could be possible given deep moisture and moist adiabatic lapse rates through the column per forecast soundings.
Models remain fairly consistent with the idea of a warm front and wave of low pressure approaching early next week, but have slowed down on timing, which is now forecast to run from Sunday night into Monday night. High pressure will follow going into mid week.
Temps through the period should run at least a few degrees below normal, with highs in the 60s (except Sat and possibly Monday where most areas may not get out of the 50s). Frost freeze concerns are not a concern attm with lows in the 40s.
Winds will become northwest and increase in the wake of cold frontal passage this evening. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts expected to develop from west to east across all waters this evening through midnight. Gusts on nearshore waters may be marginal.
Sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will then return by Thursday afternoon from W to E as high pressure builds in and winds and wind waves quickly subside, continuing through Friday.
Conditions this weekend into early next week should remain quiet. Conds on the ocean could approaching but likely fall short of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria Sat afternoon/night, and again Monday night.
No significant widespread rainfall is forecast at this time.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 8pm this evening to 2pm EDT Thursday for ANZ338-355. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2pm EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353.