Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Sat...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 7 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Gusts To 40 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Se 5 Ft At 8 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 4 Seconds, Becoming E 6 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 5 Ft At 8 Seconds. Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Rain Likely After Midnight. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 25 To 35 Kt, Increasing To 30 To 40 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts To 50 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft, Occasionally To 14 Ft, Building To 11 To 15 Ft, Occasionally To 19 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: E 10 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 6 Ft At 9 Seconds, Becoming E 12 Ft At 8 Seconds And Se 8 Ft At 9 Seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 35 To 45 Kt. Seas 14 To 19 Ft, Occasionally To 24 Ft, Building To 17 To 20 Ft, Occasionally To 25 Ft After Midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening. |
| Mon...E Winds 35 To 45 Kt With Gusts Up To 55 Kt. Seas 15 To 20 Ft, Occasionally To 25 Ft. Rain. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 30 To 35 Kt. Seas 12 To 16 Ft, Occasionally To 20 Ft. Rain. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft, Occasionally To 14 Ft. Rain Likely. |
| Tue Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Occasionally To 11 Ft. Chance Of Rain. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 313pm EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Synopsis High pressure continues to build in today and then will remain over the area into the start of the weekend. Low pressure will deepen and track north towards the region on Sunday. The low will then meander near the region on Monday, before heading out to sea by the middle of the week. Near Term - Through Tonight Strong high pressure continues to build into the area from the northwest tonight, eventually moving directly overhead late tonight and into Friday morning. The gusty N wind will diminish this evening as the boundary layer decouples. Clear skies and diminishing winds will allow for some radiational cooling, especially for inland areas away from the immediate coastline. Cold Air Advection from the northerly flow earlier in the day, a drier airmass, and a decoupled boundary layer will allow for surface temperatures to drop significantly bringing the potential for the first freeze of the season. Inland areas to the north are expected to fall into the lower 30s, possibly even some upper 20s. Freeze Warnings continue for these inland areas. Closer to the coast, middle to upper 30s are possible, with the immediate coastline having low temperatures into the low to middle 40s, courtesy of ocean temperatures remaining in the 60s. Any cooler spots not along the immediate coastline may develop some frost tonight, with Frost Advisory headlines issued for portions of southern coastal Connecticut and interior portions of NE NJ. There is also a chance for some frost across the LI Pine Barrens with temperatures around 32 degrees, but not enough of the zone for any headline. Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night High pressure then remains in control of the area Friday and Saturday. Generally clear conditions Friday with a gradually shifting wind out of the southeast will allow for temperatures to climb into the lower 60s, still about 5 degrees below average. The SE component to the wind as the high pressure center shifts east of the area will allow lower level moisture to advect into the area and dew points to increase into the low 40s. Given the increase in low level moisture and potentially some cloud cover moving in Friday night, low temperatures on Friday night will be warmer than Thursday night. Lows Friday night will be in the 40s and 50s with warmer spots near the NYC metro and along the immediate coast. High pressure remains just north of the area on Saturday with a developing coastal low approaching the area from the south. This will allow for increased cloud cover and a gradually increasing SE/E flow through the day. Highs Saturday will be in the middle to upper 60s to near 70. Some showers may approach the area from the south toward late afternoon. Long Term - Sunday Through Thursday The main focus continues to be on the storm for Sunday into early next week, with significant cstl impacts possible. The models continue to support low pressure deepening and tracking nwd towards the region on Sun, while high pressure remains over eastern Canada. Although there are some timing, track, and strength challenges, this pattern lends confidence to the wind field due to the relative positions of the high and low. As a result, issued high wind and cstl flood watches for the area. The strongest winds are still expected to be across srn/ern portions of the cwa and this is where the watch has been issued. Other areas will still be windy, but likely advy levels or lower attm. If the storm track trends wwd, this would expand the wind field wwd as well, but may limit peak gusts if the low ends up weaker. Will continue to forecast a max gust to around 60 mph during the peak of the storm based on 50kt bl winds in the GFS. This signal has been persistent. Did make some changes to the NBM, blending in the higher 06Z CONSALL for winds Sat night thru Monday over land, and manually increasing gusts there above the NBM as well. The rain develops from S to N on Sun. The NAM however is completely dry until eve. Stuck with the NBM which is closer to the faster GFS (Global Forecast System) as it is a bit too far out to have confidence in the slower NAM. Right now the window for the heaviest rain looks to be Sunday afternoon and eve, although this could change due to the eventual track, timing, and intensity of the sys. It remains windy on Mon, but the gradient relaxes so peak gusts are not expected to be as high. Still gusts around 40 mph very possible. If the low gets close enough, lighter winds could be possible with the strongest flow generally on the periphery of an occluded low. The GFS is starting to suggest this possibility, but the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has come in solidly S, keeping the area in a strong E/NE flow. The storm weakens and pulls away on Tue, so lessening rain chances and decreasing winds, although probably still breezy at the coasts. No changes to the NBM Wednesday and Thu. Marine Winds and seas continue to subside tonight as high pressure moves overhead. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected through Saturday afternoon. Winds increase Sat night, particularly on the ocean, ahead of developing low pres. A gale watch has been issued for the ocean. Winds increase to possibly storm force for Sunday and Sunday ngt. A storm watch has been issued for all waters except the harbor, where a gale watch was issued. All areas should be close to gale on Mon. Seas likely to peak around 20ft on the ocean with the sys. Winds and seas subside further Monday night and Tuesday as the low weakens and begins to track away from the region. Hydrology Widespread rain is expected Sunday into Monday. Average amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible. However, no significant hydrologic impacts are expected with this being a long duration rainfall and recent dry conditions. Tides / Coastal Flooding Total water levels are expected to approach and possibly just meet minor coastal flood benchmarks Friday morning's high tide cycle for the Nassau County south shore bays and S Fairfield. Impacts should be minimal. The potential remains for widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding and beach erosion Sunday and Monday, via the combo of high astronomical tides and surge generated by strong NE flow. Breaking waves around 10 ft possible based on 20+ ft seas offshore. Although exact impacts will be dependent on the eventual track and intensity of a deep low tracking toward the region, confidence in the event was high enough to warrant the issuance of a watch for the entire coast. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9am EDT Friday for CTZ005>008. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for CTZ009>012. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9am EDT Friday for CTZ010>012. NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9am EDT Friday for NYZ067>070. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9am EDT Friday for NJZ002. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for NJZ006-106-108. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9am EDT Friday for NJZ004-103. Marine Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ350- 353-355. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for ANZ350-353-355. |
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