Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...E Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight, Then Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt Late. Seas 9 To 12 Ft, Occasionally To 15 Ft. Wave Detail: E 11 Ft At 8 Seconds. Showers This Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Slight Chance Of Showers Late. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Until Early Morning. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming W 30 To 35 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 9 To 13 Ft, Occasionally To 17 Ft, Building To 11 To 15 Ft, Occasionally To 19 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Sw 10 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 9 Ft At 9 Seconds, Becoming Sw 12 Ft At 8 Seconds And Se 6 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 30 To 40 Kt. Seas 12 To 17 Ft, Occasionally To 22 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 14 Ft At 8 Seconds And Se 5 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Sat...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 9 To 13 Ft, Occasionally To 17 Ft, Subsiding To 7 To 10 Ft, Occasionally To 13 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Sw 11 Ft At 8 Seconds And Se 4 Ft At 13 Seconds, Becoming Sw 8 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 4 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: W 6 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 11 Seconds, Becoming W 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Sun...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Tue...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 353pm EDT Thu Oct 30 2025 Synopsis A frontal system will move through this afternoon into tonight. The associated area of low pressure will continue to deepen as it lifts up into New England and eastern Canada Friday into Saturday. High pressure building from the west on Sunday will settle offshore by late Monday. A cold front will pass across Monday night into Tuesday before high pressure returns on Wednesday. Another cold front is possible late next week. Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning Cold front entering the area with narrow band of very heavy rain and isolated lightning strikes, with precipitation rates close to an inch per hour. E-SE winds ahead of the band have been gusting to 45-50 mph in spots along the immediate coastline around the NYC metro and western Long Island Sound as as a 50-kt LLJ passes overhead. These winds likely spread E into this evening, then weaken after the convective line passes through. Winds then pick up out of the W after midnight tonight. Rain quickly ends SW-NE tonight as the front passes E and the associated surface low exits into upstate NY and New England. The region averages a widespread 1.5-2.5 inches by this time, with some locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches possible . Temperatures will fall to near 50 in NYC and into the 40s elsewhere. Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through Saturday Night Wind pick up again on Friday from the west as the low deepens while moving out of New England into eastern Canada. Strongest winds most likely to occur in/around NYC Fri afternoon/evening, with some sustained values close to 30 mph and gusts to 45 mph, and lower values inland but still gusting up to 35-40 mph. Issued a wind advisory for the entire CWA (County Warning Area) from 12 noon until midnight, including impact on Halloween in areas to the north/west where winds will likely be weaker. On Saturday, there will still be a fairly strong pressure gradient between the departing strong low and building high pressure from the west. Gusts 25-30 mph appear likely, with the higher values closer to the NYC metro area and the coast. The gradient begins relaxing late in the afternoon allowing winds to diminish, with any lingering gusts ending ending after sunset. High temps will be in the 50s both Fri/Sat. Low temps Fri night will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s, then a little cooler Sat night, 35-40 inland with some frost, and 40-45 for the NYC metro area and the coast. Long Term - Sunday Through Thursday Key Points: * Dry and seasonably cool to end the upcoming weekend. * Mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of next week. A cold front passage may bring a few showers Monday night. * Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels Sunday through the middle of next week. High pressure aloft and the surface will bring dry and seasonably cool conditions for the second half of the weekend. Winds will much weaker compared to Saturday due to a relaxed pressure gradient. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s. Mostly clear conditions, dry air, and weak winds will lead to a chilly Sunday night with lows falling into the mid 30s inland and upper 30s to mid 40s elsewhere. Some moderation in the airmass is likely on Monday as high pressure begins moving offshore. Highs may rise slightly above normal into the upper 50s to low 60s. For Monday night, the modeling continues to differ on the handling of the interaction of a dampening southern stream shortwave with an approaching northern stream shortwave. Most of the guidance continues to keep the waves far enough apart that any low pressure associated with the southern stream passes well south and east of the area. A cold front associated with the northern stream will quickly sweep across the area. The model consensus has consistently indicated a low chance Probability of Precipitation during this timeframe, which seems reasonable given the aforementioned pattern. The cold front pushes well offshore Tuesday morning with high pressure ridging returning into Wednesday. Seasonably cool conditions are expected to continue through mid week. Another fast moving cold front is possible on Thursday. Marine E-SE gales were occurring on the ocean, NY Harbor, the Great South Bay, and the wrn/central Sound ahead of a cold front and narrow convective line. These winds should spread eastward ahead of this feature. After the frontal passage winds lull for a period tonight before picking up out of the W late tonight. Gales should return to all waters by Sat afternoon and continue into tonight, and for simplicity's sake replaced any gale watches with gale warnings, and extended those warnings in time to run through Fri night on all waters despite the lull, and into early Sat morning on the ocean. Hydrology Instantaneous rainfall rates with a narrow convective line moving through attm have come close to an inch in only 10 minutes in parts of NYC, with storm totals over 2 inches, causing flash flooding in spots. Widespread rainfall of 1.5-2.5 inches expected through tonight, with widespread nuisance flooding likely. Local amts as high as 3-4 inches, and rates up to an inch in less than an hour, will also present a localized flash flood risk mainly from western CT/Long Island north/west. Tides / Coastal Flooding An increasing onshore flow through today will increase surge and bring minor coastal flooding with this afternoon and evening high tide cycles. The most vulnerable locations across the Lower NY Harbor, south shore back bays, western Great South Bay, and western Sound (southern Fairfield, and Southern Westchester) are expected to exceed minor flooding benchmarks. There is also a chance that a few of the most vulnerable locations (Freeport and Lindenhurst) could just touch moderate benchmarks. A coastal flood advisory has been issued for these locations. At coastal Bronx, and the north and south forks of Long Island may just touch minor flooding benchmarks, and a coastal flood statement remains in effect for these areas. Winds will shift to the W-WSW tonight allowing water levels to begin subsiding into Friday morning. Despite the wind shift, water levels may not subside enough to prevent minor coastal flood benchmarks from being met along the Great South Bay before the Friday morning high tide. Additional statements or an advisory may needed, but confidence is not high enough at this time. Breaking waves of 5-7 ft along the oceanfront will result in beach erosion flooding around the times of high tide, with minor damage possible to dune structures. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Wind Advisory from noon Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for CTZ005>012. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for CTZ009. NY...Wind Advisory from noon Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for NYZ071. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for NYZ072- 074-075-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9pm EDT this evening for NYZ080. NJ...Wind Advisory from noon Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for NJZ006- 106-108. Marine Gale Warning until 6am EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338- 340-345. Gale Warning until 8am EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355. |
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