Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 5 Knots Becoming South After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. A Dominant Period 7 Seconds.|
|Thursday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Scattered Thunderstorms. Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas To 7 Feet. A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Friday...Southwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday Night...West Winds 20 To 25 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet.|
|Sunday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...North Winds 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet.|
|Monday...Northeast Winds 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
| Seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest one third of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest ten percent of the waves. Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
400 PM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021
A weak high pressure ridge over the southeast U.S. and Florida will slide east over the western Atlantic, producing light winds and generally favorable seas through this evening. Winds will become southerly and increase starting around sunrise Thursday, with conditions becoming hazardous by mid day due to rapidly increasing southwest winds ahead of a strong cold front. The front will sweep across the local waters Thursday night, preceded by one or more bands of fast-moving strong to severe thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. Conditions will remain hazardous Friday with strong westerly winds and building seas well offshore. Winds and seas slowly subside this weekend.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Friday, October 26th.
39 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
30 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
23 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
15 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
10 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
411pm EDT Wednesday Oct 27 2021
Tonight-Tomorrow...Overnight, conditions will remain cool and dry as high pressure breaks down with an approaching shortwave upstream. Lows will reach the low-to-mid 60s inland and mid 60s to low 70s along the coast.
A strong low pressure system will strengthen into a mature wave this evening as it sweeps through the Mid-South before tracking up the Appalachian Mountains and into the Northeast through this weekend. For us here in east-central Florida, the associated warm front is expected to sag from the triple point into the western and southern portions of Florida by the early morning hours. At this time, the low pressure system will begin to transition to a decaying wave - speeding up the system as the low pivots to the northeast and the cold front outpaces the warm front, causing it to quickly retreat northeast of Florida by the afternoon hours.
It appears we may have a classic "Battle of the Models" setting up across east-central Florida tomorrow. Most guidance up until today have suggested that the majority of the convection will occur with the cold frontal passage and will be more linear in nature with little in the way of precipitation well ahead of the front. However, hi-res models such as the HRRR, have suggested that discrete precipitation/cells will be possible in the morning and earlier than previously suggested by most guidance as the warm front lifts north. Although the temperature gradient will likely be quite weak along the warm front, isolated-to-scattered showers and storms will form out ahead of the warm sector through the afternoon hours. The cold front will then rapidly approach western Florida by the afternoon hours with a line of strong storms likely out ahead of the front. With a tightening gradient over Florida, winds could gust to 25- 30mph from the south-southwest outside of any thunderstorms.
The biggest question of the day will be, how much instability will we see, especially later on if we get convection in the morning with the warm front? The GFS has remained consistent and somewhat low with instability. Hi-res short term models are more aggressive though with CAPE values reaching 2,500 J/kg+, SCP at 2-4, STP in the 1-3 range, helicity approaching 150-300 m^2s^2, moderate-to-high bulk shear values, and conditionally unstable mid-level lapse rates. While most of the area will have the potential to see isolated strong-to-severe storms, the best chance for severe storms will north-northwest of a line that extends from Cocoa Beach to far western Okeechobee county. The best dynamics and forcing will be in place from early afternoon to early evening which will present the best time-period for severe storms, especially across the aforementioned areas. Storm motion will be to the east-northeast at about 40-50mph, maybe even higher for places north of I-4, which when coupled with a 40kt LLJ, will help produce widespread gusts around 50mph along the main line of storms during the afternoon and into the evening hours (mainly from northwest to southeast between 1 pm to 7pm). The main hazards with any severe storms that develop will be: wind gusts to 60-70mph, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, one or two tornadoes, hail, and heavy rain. Thankfully, flooding shouldn't be much of a concern due to the fast moving nature of this system. Highs are forecast to reach the low-to-mid 80s north of I-4 and mid 80s to near 90 degrees south of I-4. Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front by Thursday night.
Thursday Night to Saturday...(Modified Previous few lingering bands of showers will be possible Thursday night as the cold continues to push south of the local area. Large deep layer low centered over the mid MS and TN Valleys Fri morning will elongate and pivot NE-ward through the mid Atlantic and NE CONUS through this weekend. The mid level trough at its base will rotate eastward across Florida late Fri through Sat night, after which the flow aloft becomes zonal. Breezy west winds continue into Fri with lingering wrap-around moisture, which could touch off some showers Fri afternoon-evening, mainly north (closest to the trough base), where 30/20 POPs were drawn. Turning cooler this weekend as high pressure builds eastward in the wake of the departing low, and winds gradually shift to WNW and NW.
Fri temps range from the U70s/U50s north to L-M80s/L-M60s south, followed by 70s/50s for most of the CWA this weekend.
Monday - Wednesday
revious)...High pressure centered over the southeast CONUS elongates NE into the western Atlantic, which causes local winds to veer to northeast and increase a bit from early to mid week. Modest increase in shallow low level moisture could support a few Atlantic showers moving onshore the coastal counties by Wed. Otherwise, dry with moderating back near to slightly above normal.
Tonight...Winds will quickly veer southerly and increase to 10-15 kt by daybreak ahead of a strong cold front. Seas will be 2-3 ft over the nearshore waters and 3-4 ft offshore.
Thursday-Sunday...Rapidly deteriorating boating conditions as S-SW winds increase to 20-25kt, followed by passage of squall line and attendant strong-severe storms. Winds will shift to WSW-W with speeds remaining 20-25kt through the day and only slowly decrease by early Sat morning. Offshore (NW) flow will persist 10-15 knots Sunday then veer NE 10 knots Monday. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all the waters beginning Thu afternoon and continuing through Fri.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Thursday to 8pm EDT Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Thursday to 8am EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.