Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 25 Knots With Occasional Gusts To Gale Force. Seas 7 To 10 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday Night...North Winds 25 Knots With Occasional Gusts To Gale Force. Seas 9 To 12 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 9 To 12 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 9 To 12 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
419 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019
A moderate to fresh onshore breeze will gradually slacken and veer to southerly through tonight as a warm front lift north across central Florida. Long period swells will be slower to subside, resulting in hazardous boating conditions lingering through this evening. A gale center is forecast to develop offshore the southeast coast Friday and intensify this weekend as it moves slowly northeast. Increasing northwest to north winds will cause winds and seas to become hazardous for small craft operators.
Gulf Stream Hazards: East winds near 20 knots with seas 7 to 9 feet. Winds and seas will gradually subside late today and tonight, but still remain poor to hazardous.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Wednesday, November 13th. 43 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
32 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
27 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet. 18 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
10 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...Retransmitted National Weather Service Melbourne FL
440am EST Thu Nov 14 2019
Current...Tuesday night's strong stalled out across extreme SOFL as the strong polar high over the central-eastern CONUS has expanded into the western Atlantic. As forecast by model guidance, an inverted trough has formed just inland from the east coast, between E to ENE synoptic flow and the northerly peninsular drainage wind. This has also clearly manifested itself in the thermal profile, with surface obs ranging from M-U50s over the far NW interior to the L-M70s along the immediate coast from cape Canaveral south. Latest IR imagery shows mostly broken multi-layered clouds across the area.
Today - Tonight
Large surface high pressure ridge to the north will continue to shift eastward, with low level flow gradually veering to E-ESE today, then become more southerly behind the boundary as it lifts northward as a warm front across the CWA overnight. Increasing ascent along/north of the frontal boundary will cause pressures to lower as clouds increase further/thicken overhead. Diurnal showers will break out through this afternoon and increase in coverage after midnight, with potential for a few TS to form overhead. Despite the clouds, marine modification will allow temps to reach the U70s, with some L80s south. mins only falling back into M60s-L70s.
Friday-Friday night...Our next cold front is forecast to be just to the northwest of I-4 Friday morning with broad surface low pressure over or just off the northeast FL coast. In the mid and upper levels, the cutoff area of low pressure will be slowly moving across the Gulf Coast states. Deep moisture across the area, some impulses in the flow aloft, and being in the right entrance of an upper-level jet will provide a day of high shower chances. Probability of Precipitation of 60-70% areawide look good along with a few rumbles of thunder also possible. Mostly cloudy skies should keep high temperatures in the low-mid 70s north of Orlando with mid to upper 70s for areas south.
The cold front is expected to be around the Lake Okeechobee/Martin county area by Friday evening. This frontal boundary looks to have some anafront-type characteristics with deeper moisture and upper- level support remaining behind the boundary, so shower chances will linger into Friday night. As the surface low deepens off the SE U.S. coast, northwesterly winds will begin cool, dry advection that gradually brings down rain chances from west to east as we get toward Saturday morning.
Saturday - Sunday
.The area of low pressure will further deepen off the U.S. east coast with NW/NNW winds continuing to bring in a much drier airmass down the Florida peninsula. Most of the area will remain rain-free, but increased convergence with a northerly wind surge will bring a low-topped, light shower chance for the coast on Saturday, mainly across northern Brevard and coastal Volusia county. Winds will become breezy to windy along the coast around 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible. Sunday continues to look dry with breezy, northerly winds persisting along the coast.
Much cooler temperatures for Saturday starting in the mid 50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s with highs topping out in the mid to upper 60s most areas (still some low 70s south of Melbourne). Guidance has trended even cooler temps for Saturday night/Sunday morning with low 50s inland and mid to upper 50s for coastal areas. A few spots NW of I-4 may even fall into the upper 40s. Similar high temperatures are expected for Sunday.
Monday - Thursday
An upper-level trough looks to sweep across the area on Monday but is only expected to bring an increase in cirrus- level clouds with the atmosphere remaining very dry in the mid and lower levels.
Rain chances then increase on Monday night into Tuesday as another trough and cold front approach from the west. Some uncertainty in the surface reflection with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) developing a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico while the GFS does not. The ECMWF is the wetter of the solutions, but either way the highest rain chances (only going 30% due to uncertainty) look to be northwest of the I-4 corridor some time in the Mon. night/Tues. timeframe. As the trough axis quickly pushes east of the area Tuesday night, the global models bring another stretch of dry weather in for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures look to continue slightly below normal for this period.
Today - Tonight
Winds and seas continue to slowly slacken from their peak around mid-day Wed. Current winds are in the 15-20KT range (strongest south and offshore) with seas 6-7FT near shore and 8-9FT well offshore. These will continue to gradually slacken/subside today through tonight, with seas falling below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria early this evening, or possibly late this afternoon in the near shore Volusia/Brevard legs. Still, conditions for small craft will remain poor through tonight. Both NWPS/WNAWAVE guidance initialized about a foot too high, and thus had to be adjusted downward.
Friday - Sunday
Numerous showers and a few storms are expected on Friday with a brief decrease in seas. The start of a prolonged period of a hazardous boating conditions begins Friday night as NW/WNW winds increase and veer northerly Saturday as a strong area of low pressure continues to develop off the SE U.S. coast. Seas will rapidly build to 7-9 ft nearshore and 10-12 ft offshore over the weekend with strong northerly winds continuing into Sunday. Gusts to gale force look possible on Saturday and Saturday night, but there is some uncertainty in how strong winds will get as it depends on how strong and where the surface low eventually develops.
Monday...Although winds back to offshore and decrease on Monday, seas will begin to slowly subside but still remain hazardous.
The SJR at ASTF1 continues in minor flood stage between 2.7-2.8FT. Expect a steady to slow fall over he next day or two, however, this will likely be halted, mainly by strong N-NW flow behind the developing Atlantic Gale Friday into this weekend.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4am Friday from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out to 60 nm.