Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast 5 Knots Late In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Monday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming East 20 To 25 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 6 To 7 Feet.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 Feet.|
|Thursday...South Winds 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
405am EDT Sunday May 31 2020
Current...A weak mid-upper level trough extends from along/offshore the SE seaboard into NE Florida early this morning. At the surface. broad/weak high pressure ridge extends from the GOMEX across the FL peninsula and into the western Atlantic. To the north a weak frontal boundary is draped along the Gulf Coast, Florida panhandle and into southern Georgia. Skies have cleared for the most part after late evening convection/debris rain dissipated with a few swaths of thin CI streaming overhead. 3AM temps fairly uniform between 70-75F under a light SW drift.
Today - Tonight
Mid level trough moves offshore into the western Atlantic as a narrow ridge to its west amplifies. Developing NW flow between the two features will allow the weak front to sag south into central Florida, but not until well after midnight. The increasingly diffuse boundary should be near the central CWA by sunrise Mon.
Deep moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) 1.7 to 1.8") and a very light (W-NW) wind flow will be in place, resulting in local mesoscale (sea/lake breezes) influences dictating initial diurnal convection. As has been the case over the past several days, additional development/propagation will become driven by convective outflows during the late afternoon into early evening. probability of precipitation will range from 30-40 for the coastal cos to 50 inland. H85-H50 steering winds will be out of the northwest at about 7-12kt, yielding a storm motion back toward the SE ("into" the ECSB) at 10-15 MPH. Local poor drainage flooding from torrential rainfall, frequent CG lightning, and gusty winds continue to be the main storm threats. Storms will linger into early evening before weakening/dissipating.
Max temps U80s-90F near the coast and L90s along/west of I-95. Mins in the L70s.
Monday - Wednesday
Mid level trough over western Atlantic will be shunted farther offshore while southern extent of axis erodes. As this occurs, a low to mid level ridge will expand across the Southeast US with ridge axis dropping to N FL by midweek. Meanwhile...a weak/backdoor surface front will drop southward into the central CWA Monday then quickly washout.
As influence of low/mid level anticyclone to the north becomes the dominant factor, a pattern change will ensue as steering flow becomes NE early to mid week. Dryer and more stable air will advect onshore into the northern third/half of CWA. Initial shower/storm development will be late morning/early afternoon near the coast, then generally spreading toward interior later each day. Convective coverage will lower areawide Monday, moreso across northern counties. Trend toward lower POPs Tue/Wednesday as relatively drier onshore flow prevails. POPs Monday ranging from 30 north to 50 Treasure Coast and Okeechobee area, then generally 20 N to 40 S Tue/Wed. Within onshore flow, max temps will reduce to mid 80s coast to near 90 far inland Mon, then lower/mid 80s coast and mid to upper 80s inland Tue/Wed.
Thursday-Saturday...Considerable disparity remains for extended range regarding evolution/placement of Central American Gyre. A piece of vorticity is forecast to eject out of the gyre Thu and lift north into the Gulf. As this occurs, GFS/ECM return slug of deep tropical moisture to southern/central FL peninsula as steering flow veers S/SW. This pattern suggests increasing convective coverage late week...possibly into the weekend. Given extended time range and uncertainty of pattern evolution over the Gulf, will reduce high blended model POPs to mid range values for now. Expect an uptick in shower/storm coverage with daily POPs near 50 percent areawide. POPs may need to be raised in later forecasts if enhanced lift associated with gyre becomes focused closer to the CWA. Max temps remaining mid- upper 80s.
Today - Tonight
S-SW winds at or below 10kt will yield to diurnal onshore ECSB circ near the coast in the afternoon. Seas 2-3ft near shore and 3-4ft well offshore, Storms could impact the ICW and the nearshore portions of the 0-20nm legs (mainly Volusia/Brevard) late in the day.
Monday - Wednesday
light northeast winds early Monday become E 15-20 kt during the afternoon and continuing overnight as surface high to the north builds into the region behind weak/backdoor front. E winds near 15 kt Tuesday lower toward 5-10 kt overnight, becoming SE 10 kt Wednesday as ridge axis drops south to the northern peninsula. Seas 2-4 ft early Monday build toward 4-7 ft overnight as NE fetch takes hold. Seas will gradually begin to subside Tue, reaching 3-4 ft by Wednesday afternoon. Isolated showers/storms north of the Cape and scattered showers/isolated storms farther south.
Thursday...as ridge axis broadens and drops into central FL, gradient flow becomes SE 10-15 kt, with seas 2-3 ft. Scattered to locally numerous showers/storms.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories