Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 8 Seconds And North 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 9 Seconds. |
| Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 Feet. Wave Detail: East 3 Feet At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Friday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Saturday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 142pm EDT Tuesday May 26 2026 Issued at 155am EDT Tuesday May 26 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Monday evening objective analysis showed a sprawling ridge at H5, with heigheights exceeding 588 dam along the Atlantic coast from Norfolk, VA to the Florida Keys. Its center remains well offshore, to the north of The Bahamas. Mid-level (H7 / 10 kft) moisture has decreased substantially over the Florida Peninsula, as was forecast. Through Wednesday, the associated surface high-pressure axis remains north of Central Florida, and mid-level moisture will only slowly increase beginning on Wednesday. In the polar jet stream across N America, a pronounced omega block is slated to develop this week. As the digging trough on the eastern flank of the block drifts into the NW Atlantic beginning Thursday, ridging over Florida will collapse. This is expected to send the near-surface high-pressure axis south of the area by Friday. Additionally, a shortwave trough, currently over the Sonoran Desert, is forecast to slowly progress eastward and into the Gulf by week's end. Ahead of it, the 25/12Z ensembles transport deep Gulf moisture and embedded weak vorticity eastward toward the peninsula. Once it reaches the area beginning Thursday, this anomalous moisture remains in place at least through this weekend. With PWAT (Precipitable Water) values in excess of the 90th percentile, the encroaching shortwave trough, and weak to offshore boundary-layer flow, multiple rounds of unsettled weather should result beginning late this week and through the weekend. By around next Tuesday, a weak front associated with the trough over the Northeast U.S. may approach the state. Cluster analysis suggests that guidance is nearly evenly split on whether this late-season front will clear Central Florida or stall nearby. Climatology would lean toward a stalling front, which would prolong unsettled conditions well into next week. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Wednesday... Little change to our persistent weather pattern is expected today. With some drier air aloft, very similar conditions to our Memorial Day are forecast. One subtle difference is that the hi-res models give a slightly better chance (50%) for late-day and evening showers and storms generally over Lake County, to the west of Greater Orlando. Aside from a few morning showers or a quick storm, the coast should be mainly dry today. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal, particularly at night along the coast. Breezy southeast winds continue, with a few gusts from 20-30 mph by afternoon. Rough surf will exist at our beaches today, and a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues. Beach-goers should refrain from entering the surf. A few more showers may develop along the coast tonight and early Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, slightly higher moisture works in from the Gulf. With the surface ridge axis still to our north, this should focus greater shower and storm chances from Lake George to Orlando to Sebring and points westward (50-70%), with 30-40% chances closer to I-95. Model proximity soundings reveal substantial DCAPE due to the lingering effects of dry air aloft, which may promote at least a low chance for wind gusts approaching 50 mph in the strongest storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Thursday - Weekend... Deeper moisture really surges in here beginning on Thursday. With the high-pressure axis on its way south and southwesterly flow aloft, numerous showers and storms should form and push toward the east coast by Thursday afternoon. These could also be somewhat strong with at least a low chance for wind gusts of around 50 mph. Frequent lightning will also remain a threat. Light offshore flow becomes established beginning Friday, pinning any sea breeze near the coast. Increasing cloud cover will be a harbinger of the copious moisture in place over Central Florida. It will not take much daytime heating to spark additional rounds of showers and storms each day. While the rain will help drought conditions, the highly efficient rain rates may cause some ponding and/or flooding, especially for urban locales. Rainfall tallies of 1-2.5" should be relatively common through this period, with a 10-20% chance of exceeding 3". High temperatures should range generally in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the low/mid 70s. Expect very muggy conditions. Early Next Week As mentioned in the overview, there is a fair amount of disagreement regarding how long this unsettled weather pattern will stick around. Once we reach June, it becomes very difficult to get a clean cold frontal passage in Central Florida. We currently favor a solution that keeps the continental air bottled up to our north through at least Tuesday. With that in mind, high coverage of showers and storms should persist. Statistical guidance tends to agree with that assessment, with rain chances above 70% on both Monday and Tuesday. Locally excessive rainfall will remain a concern. Temperatures look to stay a bit below normal due to the amount of cloud cover that is forecast. Marine Issued at 155am EDT Tuesday May 26 2026 To the south of an axis of strong high pressure, fresh onshore flow continues over the local Atlantic. This is producing poor boating conditions, particularly behind the afternoon sea breeze. Little change is forecast through Wednesday. The surface ridge axis will then push southward on Thursday before reaching the Florida Straits on Friday. Winds should decrease as this occurs. Only isolated showers and storms are forecast through Wednesday. Then, showers and storms will become more numerous beginning Thursday. Some of the storms late this week will have the potential to push offshore, bringing sudden wind gusts and higher seas. SE winds 12-18 kts through Wednesday, becoming S 10-15 kts on Thursday, then variable 5-10 kt on Friday. Higher winds and gusts near storms late in the week. Prevailing seas 3-5 ft through Wednesday, decreasing to 2-3 ft Thursday and Friday. NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. |
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