Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 8 Seconds And South 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 8 Seconds And North 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 8 Seconds And North 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 9 Seconds And North 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning. |
| Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...South Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Seas 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 648am EDT Monday May 25 2026 Issued at 207am EDT Monday May 25 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- The broad pattern remains unchanged this morning. Florida's weather remains under the control of a deep-layer high-pressure system. The 591 dam upper high sits northeast of the Bahamas, while a large surface high extends from the NW Atlantic to the Deep South. Southeasterly onshore breezes maintain a mT air mass across the state, with PWAT (Precipitable Water) (total moisture) values near to just above seasonal norms. The 24/12Z ensemble suite is in excellent agreement through midweek. As the upper high nudges slightly closer to the state, somewhat lower moisture is slated to advect overhead through tomorrow. MIMIC-TPW imagery shows that some of this drier air is already encroaching. Then, as an omega block begins to form over the mid-latitudes of N America, a trough near the Canadian Maritimes should cause the ridge to weaken and settle southward during the second half of the work week. As the surface ridge axis follows suit, our prolonged stretch of onshore flow is expected to end by Thursday or Friday. Bouts of subtropical energy emanating from a disturbance over the Southwest U.S. should undercut the developing omega block. One such disturbance is expected to slowly transit the Gulf late this week. Ahead of it, a plume of rich tropical moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) > 1.75") should reach the state beginning Wednesday. By the weekend, cluster analysis strongly implies that a shortwave trough will sit either over or just north of Florida. The combination of this energy, copious moisture, and offshore boundary-layer flow provides multiple opportunities for unsettled weather, with impacts peaking either this weekend or early next week. This is in line with a region of favorable 200 hPa divergence and potential upward motion across the eastern Gulf and Florida by the weekend. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Tuesday... This should be the quietest portion of the week from a weather perspective. Those attending Memorial Day events should plan on seasonably hot temperatures and low (but not zero) chances for showers and storms. Somewhat drier air and less convergence for storm development is noted among the hi-res models through Tuesday. This leaves us with a few low-topped showers near the coast in the morning, transitioning to 20-30% coverage of showers and storms over the interior by afternoon and evening. Typical diurnally driven summerlike storms are expected, with brief, gusty winds, occasional lightning, and heavy rainfall as the primary threats. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk continues, as does the High Risk of life-threatening rip currents through at least tonight. Wednesday - Friday... The latter half of the work week will be transitional. Moisture will quickly increase beginning Wednesday and remain anomalous from there. As ridging weakens, the surface high pressure axis slowly slips southward, reaching our latitude by Thursday before sinking toward the Florida Straits on Friday. With flow eventually turning offshore, the eastern half of the peninsula should see progressively higher coverage of showers and storms. An early look at proximity soundings from model guidance reveals light winds through the column but plentiful afternoon instability. Gusty wet microbursts (40-50 mph) and torrential rainfall, leading to localized minor flooding, appear to be the primary hazards. High temperatures will remain seasonably warm before storms get going, in the upper 80s to around 90 F. Lows remain balmy in the low/mid 70s. Next Weekend There are still plenty of details to iron out, as evidenced by the spread of outcomes in the guidance. However, the overall setup remains favorable for multiple rounds of showers and storms. A direct moisture tap from the Caribbean Sea, combined with a weak disturbance, should promote 70-80% rain chances each day. Repeated rounds of storms could begin to cause some flooding issues if they affect the same areas. Over the weekend, most likely rainfall amounts are 1-2 inches. For much of east central Florida, there is at least a 10% chance of receiving 3" or more. High temperatures settle a couple of degrees below normal in the mid 80s due to extra cloud cover, but it will be quite muggy. Marine Issued at 207am EDT Monday May 25 2026 High pressure remains in charge across the Western Atlantic, with a surface ridge axis extending from near Bermuda to North Florida today. Moderate to at times fresh southeast breezes will persist, which may occasionally cause poor boating conditions. By later this week, high pressure will weaken and settle south of the waters as a weak disturbance gathers in the Gulf. Isolated showers and storms are forecast early this week, with increasing coverage later in the week. SE winds 12-18 kt through Wednesday, becoming SSE around 10 kt on Thursday. Seas 4-5 ft through Wednesday, then 2-4 ft on Thursday. NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. |
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