Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...East Winds Around 25 Knots. Seas 10 To 12 Feet, Occasionally To 15 Feet. Wave Detail: East 12 Feet At 10 Seconds And Northwest 3 Feet At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Tonight...East Winds Around 25 Knots. Seas 11 To 14 Feet, Occasionally To 18 Feet, Building To 13 To 15 Feet, Occasionally To 19 Feet After Midnight. Wave Detail: East 14 Feet At 11 Seconds. Showers Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 12 To 15 Feet, Occasionally To 19 Feet. Wave Detail: East 14 Feet At 12 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 11 To 14 Feet, Occasionally To 18 Feet. Wave Detail: East 13 Feet At 12 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Monday...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 10 To 12 Feet, Occasionally To 15 Feet. Wave Detail: East 12 Feet At 11 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Monday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 9 To 11 Feet, Occasionally To 14 Feet, Subsiding To 8 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet After Midnight. Wave Detail: East 11 Feet At 11 Seconds And Northwest 2 Feet At 7 Seconds, Becoming East 9 Feet At 11 Seconds And North 2 Feet At 7 Seconds After Midnight. Showers Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Tuesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 7 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday Night...East Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Seas 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1249pm EST Sat Dec 14 2024 Issued at 930am EST Sat Dec 14 2024 A surface high remains in place north of the Florida peninsula, with the pressure gradient remaining rather tight across the area. This has resulted in breezy to windy onshore flow locally, which has continued to advect moisture towards the peninsula overnight and through this morning. The 11Z XMR sounding measured a PWAT (Precipitable Water) of 1.09 inches, which is an increase of roughly 0.3 inches from last night's 23Z sounding. As a result of all these factors, coverage of onshore-moving showers has increased compared to yesterday, and the higher wind speeds have allowed for the showers to move farther inland this morning than initially forecast. Decided to increase rain chances across the interior to account for the trends this morning, with coverage of activity remaining isolated to scattered into this afternoon. Despite the higher cloud coverage associated with these showers, temperatures are still forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon across east central Florida, which is near to slightly above normal for this time of year. Conditions at all east central Florida beaches continue to remain hazardous. A high risk of rip currents continues. A High Surf Advisory also remains in effect for dangerous, rough surf with breaking waves of 6 to 10 feet at the beaches, with minor to moderate beach erosion possible. For Volusia County, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for minor coastal flooding, with the greatest impacts occurring during times of high tide. In summary, going to the beaches and entering the ocean is not advised. .PREVIOUS Issued at 219am EST Sat Dec 14 2024 ----------Synoptic Overview---------- Overnight analysis charts revealed a mid-tropospheric ridge extending from Mexico to Florida. In the mid-latitude westerlies, a shortwave trough is exiting Colorado and large-scale upper convergence resides over the eastern Great Lakes. In response, a sprawling 1045 hPa (+3 sigma) surface high sits over Lake Ontario. Above-normal surface pressures exist southward to Florida. However, a strong pressure gradient exists across the Southeast U.S. This gradient continues to advect modified marine air across the state from the Atlantic. A weak mid-level trough across Hispaniola will enhance low-level flow over the next 24 HR, causing increased moisture convergence along the coast late today through early Sunday. Overall, fairly warm and moist onshore flow will persist in the boundary layer through the middle of next week as upper ridging steers any major weather disturbances to the north of Florida. The 13/12Z grand ensemble cluster analysis shows little spread in the upper-air pattern through Wednesday. By late next week and especially next weekend, uncertainty jumps considerably as multiple northern stream disturbances are forecast to carve out another dip in the jet stream over parts of the Eastern U.S. This looks to be shaping up as a rather transient +PNA/-EPO pattern, but it is likely to produce multiple cold frontal passages for Florida. Ensemble means show strong ridging over the West but a general lack of upstream blocking over Greenland. This raises questions regarding the intensity and staying power of the cold air behind these successive cold fronts. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today-Sunday... Hi-res guidance, in particular the HREF suite, is honing in on periodic onshore-moving showers through the period. The highest coverage, now in the 50-60% range, is concentrated late this afternoon through tonight along the Space & Treasure Coasts. Over this area, there is at least a 20% chance of picking up an inch of rain, though these tallies will be quite localized. This lines up with splotches of max-member rainfall tallies ranging from 1-1.5". Aerial rainfall averages will be more in the 0.1-0.4" range across the district, except near/west of Greater Orlando where amounts over 0.1" will be tougher to achieve. Any rain at this point is welcomed considering our dry pattern of late. It promises to be breezy to windy as low-layer momentum picks up. The odds of peak gusts 35 MPH or greater are 40-60% for our coastal communities between today and tonight. Barrier Island and US-1 corridor residents should keep tabs on holiday decorations! Expect thicker marine stratocu with a few intervals of clearing. We could see a bit more sun on Sunday afternoon. Continued mild days and balmy nigheights courtesy of the onshore component. Beach conditions are becoming quite hazardous. We will have a High Surf Advisory and high risk for deadly rip currents this weekend. Breaking surf of 6-10 FT, periodic run-up to the dune line, and a lengthy swell period are raising concerns for minor to moderate beach erosion at times of high tide. We also happen to be within an astronomical high tide cycle this weekend, courtesy of the December "Cold Moon". For Coastal Volusia County, we have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for minor saltwater inundation around high tide through Sunday morning. Monday - Wednesday An appreciable pressure gradient will keep us in deep onshore flow early next week. A few showers remain in the forecast, with coverage increasing on Tuesday and Wednesday as proximity soundings reveal a little more instability each afternoon. Maintained isolated lightning chances on Tue/Wed. Temperatures hold above normal, particularly at night: upper 70s/near 80F each day, lows in the 60s. Thursday-Next Weekend Confidence continues to trend downward late in the week as a series of mid-latitude features are forecast to send at least a pair of cold fronts toward Florida. The first front appears to pass through here on Thursday, leading to low shower chances and a noticeable drop in temperatures by Friday and Saturday (mid 60s to mid 70s). Any concerns for excessive cold look to be just beyond this forecast package (next Sunday or Monday) with the second cold front. Modeled teleconnections resulting in this potential cooler weather pattern are fairly similar to those which have already sent a few strong cold fronts through the state this month, albeit limited in local frost/freeze impacts to this point. While some individual members and deterministic runs have advertised very impactful cold behind that second front late next weekend, there are some reasons to be skeptical, even beyond the threat being 8-9 days away. With little high-latitude blocking and the potential for a Pacific jet extension to quickly knock down the ridge over the West, a direct shot of Arctic air could struggle to make it down to Central Florida. And if it does, its staying power should be limited. Indeed, tonight's 14/00Z global models have backed off some of those extreme cold scenarios. To that end, we strayed from statistical guidance regarding low temperatures next weekend, which appear to be biased toward the colder solutions. However, we remain below ensemble means. Marine Issued at 219am EST Sat Dec 14 2024 A long fetch of fresh to strong northeasterly winds will contribute to hazardous boating conditions through early next week. Small Craft Advisories have been extended through at least early Tuesday. Seas of 8-12 FT today will build to 10-15 FT by Sunday before slowly subsiding to 5-8 FT by late Tuesday. Swell periods will lengthen to around 11-12 sec from tonight through Monday. Scattered to numerous showers are forecast each day. Intracoastal boating should remain choppy to rough through at least Sunday night. NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10am EST Sunday for FLZ141. High Surf Advisory until 4am EST Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3am EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575. |
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