Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds.|
|Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds.|
|Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 5 Knots Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 Feet. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
334 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021
Weak high pressure will move south from the Carolina coast today then east over the open Atlantic tonight. A cold front will push into central Florida Thursday night and Friday and become quasi-stationary across north and central Florida through the weekend. Scattered showers and storms will push offshore north of Sebastian Inlet on Friday. Coverage of showers and storms will increase Sunday.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Tuesday, April 13th.
41 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
30 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
27 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
19 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
12 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
837pm EDT Wednesday April 14 2021
Currently...A few relatively brief showers were able to develop in late boundary interactions west of the forecast area around dusk. With loss of heating winds largely ascd with onshore sea breezes will diminish and veer more southerly over the next several hours.
Overnight...Wind speeds are expected to decrease to around 4 to 7 mph across east central Florida. Skies should become partly cloudy after midnight as BL moisture increases somewhat. Overnight lows will be around 60 to 66.
Thursday... A cold front will push across the Florida panhandle and approach northern Florida early in the day, then shifting southward through the day. The resulting high cloudiness should spread E/SE across the northern/central FA during the afternoon. Timing and speed of the front differs slightly between the models. For now, have gone closer with the GFS, thus a slight chance of rain and lightning storms across our northern counties in the late afternoon and into early evening on Thursday.
Afternoon highs will be above normal for this time of year, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, even along the coast where temperatures are expected to reach upper 80s due to the delayed sea breeze and more day time heating.
Thu Night...The weakening cold front will push slowly south becoming stationary across central FL. Will maintain isolated to scattered showers Orlando-Cape northward as fast moving impulses aloft provide some upper support, mainly overnight. Overnight lows mild in the 60s with conditions humid.
Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified... Fri-Wed...With the front draped across the area and impulses streaming E/SE in fast flow aloft, model guidance shows scattered storms developing Fri focused across the north half so have drawn 40 PoP there, decreasing to silent 10 Probability of Precipitation across the Treasure Coast/Okeechobee. The front should retreat northward a little Fri night across the panhandle/north FL. So rain/storm chances continue to decrease for Sat. Considerable cloudiness should keep max temps to the mid 80s across the far north but stronger heating expected Orlando southward. SW flow will be strong enough to at least delay the east coast sea breeze and possibly prevent it altogether. So max temps near 90/lower 90s expected even at the coast south of the Cape.
The front is forecast to slowly push back southward Sun-Wednesday but become nearly stationary across central FL as it becomes parallel to the upper flow. A stronger push southward may come by Wed. A plume of deep moisture from the Gulf is forecast to overspread the area with much higher rain chances beginning Sunday across the north and across the remainder of EC FL Mon-Wed. The stalled front, combined with waves of instability in the fast flow aloft, will provide a focus for several rounds of potentially heavy rainfall particularly Mon-Wed. The clouds and precipitation will hold max temps to the upper 70s/near 80 north and low to mid 80s south.
.Aviation...VFR conditions. Variable higher clouds will be moving over the area through the TAF period, FEW/SCT 120-250. Winds veering south to southwest and decreasing to around 5 KT overnight. Winds will then increase once again to 5-10 KT by early to mid morning. Rain chances will enter the forecast Thu afternoon, but confidence is too low to include it in the TAFs at this time.
Tonight...Good boating conditions continue with high pressure remaining off the east coast of Florida. Seas are forecast to stay around 2-4 ft in the nearshore waters and 4-5 ft in the offshore waters. Winds veering south to southwest after midnight.
Thursday... The high pressure will begin to shift south and eastward, away from the Florida peninsula, through the day on Thursday. A frontal boundary is forecast to move towards the local area Thursday, possibly making it to the far northern local waters by early evening on Thursday. Guidance is still in slight disagreement on speed and timing of the front, but for now trending closer with GFS which will place the front near our northern waters by early evening on Thursday. Seas are expected to build to 4-5 ft across all the waters in the morning before decreasing to 3-4 ft by the afternoon. Winds will be south to southwest turning southeast with a strong sea breeze late in the day increasing winds to 15-20 KT.
Thu..Is expected to be a fire sensitive day with breezy W/SW winds around 12 mph and gusty with min RH values 35 to 40 percent. Dispersion values will be Very Good to Excellent with rapid spread of any new or existing fires.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories