Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...South Winds 5 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...South Winds 5 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet.|
|Sunday...South Winds 5 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...South Winds 5 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...South Winds 5 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
351 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020
Favorable boating conditions are expected through the weekend as light southerly flow gradually backs to southeast with seas remaining 3 feet or less through the period. The threat for offshore moving storms today will be confined north of Sebastian Inlet, with chances decreasing even further through this weekend.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Wednesday, August 5th.
39 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
28 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
23 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
14 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet. 8 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
318pm EDT Thu August 6 2020
Current - Tonight
As anticipated, a bit of a slower start to convective initiation this afternoon compared to days prior, with a well-defined east coast sea breeze already pushing past I-95 this afternoon. Just a few showers in the forecast area thus far, mainly confined to the Treasure Coast/Lake Okeechobee region, with isolated storms developing along a line just east of I-75 moving eastward. In typical summertime fashion, a robust mid to late afternoon collision is expected, with meso models favoring the mid-peninsula from west of the Saint Johns River to Lake Okeechobee. Based on the 15Z XMR sounding, a bit of dry air in the mid-levels may enhance wind gust potential in storms that do develop, however with 500mb temps at -6 degrees, conditions are not favorable for widespread strong thunderstorms. Still, expect the possibility of wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours leading to minor flooding concerns in slower storm motion. A bit of a forecast shift from this morning, with the likelihood emerging of storms building back towards the coast near sunset, with clearing anticipated in the late evening. Overnight lows will hold steady in the mid to upper 70s tonight.
Friday...Not much change to the overall summer regime with the Atlantic ridge building towards the state. Axis of higher moisture remains anchored across the area with PW of 1.90-2.10" in place tomorrow. As a result, a nearly duplicate forecast from today, with south to southeasterly flow allowing for a rapid sea breeze push inland, with showers and storms developing in the mid afternoon across the interior, with slightly lower coverage expected along the coast. Activity will linger past sunset tomorrow, but should clear quickly by late evening. Highs will top out in the upper 80s at the coast with the sea breeze influence, climbing to the low/mid 90s over the interior. Nighttime lows in the mid/upper 70s again.
Weekend-Next Week...(previous) Presence of aforementioned ridge setting up at the surface near central FL will lead to some airmass drying this weekend into early next week. The corresponding Probability of Precipitation forecast will remain at least scattered in coverage at the coast and likely inland with variable to light onshore steering winds. Daily flow patterns will be dominated by formation of the east coast breeze and development of localized boundaries, which will lead to daily storm chances highest across inland areas. generally went a little lower than Probability of Precipitation guidance from operational NBM for the extended period. Seasonal temperatures can be expected.
Tonight-Tomorrow...SE flow will return to S later this evening with a lessening of the afternoon sea breeze influence with winds diminishing from 10 to 5 knots. A bit of variability in direction overnight, as SW winds shift S, then return SE again tomorrow afternoon when the sea breeze initiates again. Favorable boating conditions with seas of 1-2 ft. A slight chance for thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters, mainly during the overnight, although afternoon storms could push back towards the coast in the evening hours.
Saturday-Monday...(previous) Surface ridge establishing nearby will lead to favorable conditions with seas around 2 ft or less this weekend and into early next week.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories