Marine Weather Net

Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRIDAY

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ572 Forecast Issued: 308 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast Late This Evening, Becoming Southwest After Midnight, Becoming Northwest Late. Seas 2 Feet. Wave Detail: North 2 Feet At 4 Seconds And East 2 Feet At 9 Seconds.
Thursday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Wave Detail: North 2 Feet At 4 Seconds And East 2 Feet At 9 Seconds.
Thursday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: North 2 Feet At 4 Seconds And East 2 Feet At 9 Seconds.
Friday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: North 2 Feet At 5 Seconds And East 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 4 Feet At 5 Seconds And East 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Saturday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.
Sunday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Monday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
702pm EDT Wednesday May 29 2024

.PREVIOUS Issued at 200pm EDT Wednesday May 29 2024

...Continued Hot Today with Afternoon High Temperatures in the Mid to Upper 90s West of I-95 through Thursday... ...Sensitive Fire Weather Conditions Continue... Current - Tonight
The heat continues with M-U90s interior and L90s near the coast this afternoon. Peak heat indices well into the 90s, except 100-105F south of the Melbourne-Kenansville line. As a weak frontal boundary slides toward Lake Okeechobee this afternoon, where it will eventually become quasi-stationary, drier air will follow southward behind it. Northerly winds 10-15 mph (some higher gusts) behind this feature will gradually veer NE/E (coast-inland) with an earlier initiation of the ECSB. Deepest moisture values will be associated in vicinity of the front and hence greatest convective threat across Okeechobee County, southern Brevard, and the Treasure Coast. Highest Probability of Precipitation southward 20-30pct. Primary storm threats include frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds to around 50 mph locally, small hail, and heavy downpours. Diurnal activity will wind down near mid-evening well south, with mainly dry conditions overnight. Continued mild and humid overnight with mins in the U60s to L70s, with M70s for barrier islands.

...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified... Thu-Fri...The aforementioned front lingers in the vicinity of the local area through the remainder of the work-week. Continued dry air on Thu is forecast to further limit shower and thunderstorm chances, especially across the I-4 corridor, though have recently added 20-30pct Probability of Precipitation with surrounding offices across the interior and through Lake Okeechobee closer in vicinity to the previous front as well as deepest moisture exists here. Models also hint at some mid-level energy traversing the area later in the day. Afternoon highs to rise into the M-U90s inland and L90s along the coast, with a slow inland moving sea breeze in the afternoon.

By Fri enough moisture will seep back into the local area to aid a passing upper level trough in supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the interior. Probability of Precipitation increase to 20-40% across the area, though an increase in onshore flow looks to enhance the ECSB, with the collision occurring on the western half of the peninsula. A slightly earlier onset of the sea breeze will finally provide a small amount of relief from near-record high temperatures. Highs Fri afternoon forecast in the U80s to near 90 along the coast and the L- M90s inland. Overnight lows remaining in the U60s to L70s.

The Weekend-Early Next Week
The weak frontal boundary is forecast to finally push south of the area Sat, as a ridge builds into the western Atlc. Models continue to differ on the amount of dry air that will filter in behind the front. So, have maintained NBM Probability of Precipitation of 20-30% each day, though this is likely generous. Will also need to monitor the thunderstorm threat, as dry air in the mid and upper levels will likely prevent most deep updrafts. The ECSB will remain dominant in prevailing onshore flow, increasing to up to 15 mph this weekend, with higher gusts. Stronger onshore flow will help to keep high temperatures near normal, in the U80s to L90s. A few M80s will even be possible along the coast. Overnight lows in the M-U60s.

Marine
PREVIOUS MODIFIED... Issued at 200pm EDT Wednesday May 29 2024

Remainder of afternoon-Thu...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail through mid-week. A weak frontal boundary settles south across the Lake Okeechobee region this afternoon, confining afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances to the Treasure Coast waters. By Thu, only a slight chance mention for Probability of Precipitation in the afternoon are forecast for the Treasure Coast waters. NWRLY winds early in the morning will veer northeast/east into the afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15 kts. Seas 1-2 ft.

Fri-Mon...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this weekend, as high pressure building into the western Atlantic increases onshore winds to around 15 kts or even 15-20 kts at times. PoPs remain 30% or less through the period. Seas 1-3 ft Fri will build to up to 4-5 ft this weekend, as winds increase.

Fire Weather
PREVIOUS MODIFIED... Issued at 200pm EDT Wednesday May 29 2024

Remainder of Afternoon-Evening...Drier air filters into the local area behind a recent weak frontal boundary, with min RH values falling to 25-35% over the interior west of I-95 and 40-50% for coastal locations. Very near critical fire weather conditions are expected, with light northerly winds veering onshore at 10-15 mph, very dry fuels, and Excellent dispersion. Temperatures into the mid to upper 90s over the interior and lower 90s along the coast. A few showers or lightning storms will be possible along and inland from the Treasure Coast and across Okeechobee County where moisture remains deepest and closest proximity to a surface front.

Thu-This Weekend...Similar conditions will persist into Thu, with min RH once again forecast between 25-35% west of I-95 and 40-50% along the coast. Onshore winds are expected to increase to around 10 mph in the afternoon, with Very Good to Excellent dispersion and high temperatures in the 90s. Have added a 20-30pct chance for showers and storms across the interior/Lake Okeechobee region for the afternoon.

Will begin to see some improvement in min RH late week into this weekend. However, min RH values will remain near-critical over the interior. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will persist, as onshore winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph and precipitation chances remain low.

NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None.