Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 10 Seconds.|
|Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Seas 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Monday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming North In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet.|
Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
351 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020
A high pressure ridge will remain over local Atlantic through Monday with seas favorable for small craft operation. The ridge will retreat seaward ahead of a fast moving cold front which will cross the local waters late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Winds and seas will start to increase ahead of the front Tuesday, and continue behind the front on Wednesday, resulting in poor to hazardous boating conditions.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Thursday, March 26th. 43 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
30 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
23 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
14 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
9 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
439am EDT Sunday Mar 29 2020
...Heat Will Continue Through Tuesday, Followed by a Cold Front... ...Fire Sensitivity Expected to Increase Further on Tuesday as Southwest Winds Increase... Currently...Satellite imagery and hi-res model guidance indicating areas of fog may expand eastward into Lake County toward daybreak, and may also develop over interior counties near to west of Florida's Turnpike. Localized visibilities of a mile or less will be possible with any fog that develops over the far interior of east central Florida. Fog may linger an hour or two after sunrise, but should quickly dissipate as daytime heating kicks in.
Today - Tonight
Strong mid-level ridge will remain in place across Florida, maintaining hot and dry conditions today. Ridge axis of surface high pressure over the west Atlantic will keep a light south to southwest flow across the area, with the east coast sea breeze developing and shifting inland by early afternoon. This will limit highs to the mid to upper 80s along the coast, while west of I-95 temperatures will soar to near records in the low 90s. Leesburg and Sanford are forecast to exceed their record high temperatures for today, while Daytona Beach and Orlando will be within a degree of two of their record values (see climate section below). Lows tonight will remain mild in the 60s, with patchy fog development possible once again toward daybreak Monday, mainly over the interior.
Monday - Wednesday
Flattening mid level ridge across Florida early Monday will shift south and collapse by Tuesday ahead of a potent short wave trough pushing through the central-eastern CONUS but staying north of the state. The Atlantic ridge will gradually shift S-SE to offshore SEFL Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front that will reach the northern CWA a few hours after midnight, and then sweep rapidly SE through the CWA and offshore Wednesday morning.
Since the supporting mid level trough stays bodily north of the state (let alone the CWA), local mid level PVA is essentially nil ahead of the impending FROPA. And while there is some modest H25 divergence, and wind fields are decent, frontal convergence is also weak. Given the overall paucity of forced ascent, marginal instability, and nocturnal timing, plan to keep mention of TS out of the forecast for Tuesday night. Subsequent shifts can re-assess TS potential.
POPs will range from 40 NW to 20 SE Tuesday night, with a lingering 20 Probability of Precipitation for the far SE CWA early Wednesday morning.
Near record late March temps continue with M-U80s near the coast and L90s inland Mon, followed by U80s-L90s areawide Tuesday in an increasing pre-frontal SW breeze. Mins in the M-U60s, around 70F in some locations. Cooler/drier air takes hold areawide Wed- Wednesday night, albeit Wednesday maxes will still ne above normal for all but the northern CWA around 80F north to U80s south. Mins in the M-U50s inland, L60s along the coast as post-frontal winds will start to acquire an onshore component late
Thursday-Sunday...Model guidance indicates short wave ridging slowly rebuilding from the GOMEX toward FL as weak ripples of mid level vorticity ride over the top, and across FL. Increasing mean moisture and warm-frontogenetic type lift should lead to an increasing in clouds and rain chances, with a conservative 20-30 POP introduced at this time.
Near-normal max temps on Thu (U70s-80F) will rise just slightly above normal (L80s all but the immediate coast) from Fri onward. Mins U50s inland Thu night, otherwise L60s, with L-M60s for the coastal counties, U60s along the barrier islands.
Today - Tonight
Generally favorable boating conditions today, with seas up to 3-4 feet this morning falling to 2-3 feet by the afternoon. Southerly winds up to 10-15 knots this morning will become more southeasterly nearshore during the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland.
Monday - Thursday
Benign boating conditions (2-3ft) Mon-early Tue, with increasing winds causing seas to build to 4ft late Tue, and up to 5ft Tuesday night-Wed. Sea will build further on Thu as a NE swell propagates into the local waters, resulting in combined seas as high as 6-7ft offshore.
Hot and dry conditions continue today-Mon, with min RH values falling to the upper 30s to low 40s over much of the interior this afternoon. However, could see RH values over some spots near to northwest of the I-4 corridor fall briefly to the mid 30s.
Increasing SW winds Tuesday ahead of the approaching cold front will exacerbate fire weather sensitivity, as min RH values remain in the U30s to L40s areawide.
Leesburg and Sanford should exceed their record highs for today, as temperatures rise into the low 90s this afternoon. Daytona Beach and Orlando will also be near their record highs for today.
Site Date Record Date Record Date Record /Year /Year /Year DAB 3/29 90-1991 3/30 91-1939 3/31 90-1954 LEE 3/29 90-1991 3/30 91-1991 3/31 88-2016 SFB 3/29 91-1994 3/30 91-2000 3/31 92-1970 MCO 3/29 95-1920 3/30 97-1907 3/31 95-1907 MLB 3/29 90-1974 3/30 92-1975 3/31 91-1954 VRB 3/29 91-1997 3/30 91-2011 3/31 90-1975 FPR 3/29 92-1929 3/30 91-2011 3/31 90-1993
...March 2020 Stats/Rankings... With well above normal temperatures continuing through the rest of the month, we are on track for the warmest March on record for Daytona Beach, Leesburg, Sanford and Orlando.
It should also be the driest March on record for much of the area. However, isolated to scattered showers are currently forecast ahead of an approaching weak cold front into the evening of the 31st, so any additional rainfall before midnight on Tuesday evening could change these current rankings.
....March 2020 Average Temperature (Through March 28th):
Site: Avg. Temp: Ranking (Top 10):
Daytona Beach 70.3 (+6.1) Warmest (Record: 70.1/1945) Leesburg 73.3 (+7.7) Warmest (Record: 72.3/2012) Sanford 72.9 (+6.6) Warmest (Record: 72.3/2003) Orlando 73.4 (+6.7) 2nd Warmest (Record: 73.7/1907) Melbourne 70.8 (+5.1) 7th Warmest (Ties 1974) Vero Beach 72.1 (+4.9) 5th Warmest Ft. Pierce 70.8 (+3.9) -
...March 2020 Total Rainfall (Through March 28th):
Site: Rainfall: Ranking (Top 10):
Daytona Beach 0.02" (-3.82") Driest (Record: 0.08"/2006) Leesburg Trace (-4.04") Driest (Record: 0.04"/2006) Sanford 0.03" (-3.74") 2nd Driest (Record: T/2006) Orlando 0.02" (-3.36") T-Driest (Record: 0.02"/2006) Melbourne 0.03" (-2.95") T-Driest (Record: 0.03"/1956) Vero Beach 0.02" (-3.70") Driest (Record: 0.09"/1956) Ft. Pierce 0.02" (-3.31") Driest (Record: 0.19"/1917)
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories