Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 Knots. Seas 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Monday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Showers And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
414 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020
An Atlantic high pressure ridge axis to the north and weak low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will produce increasing east to southeast flow through Monday along with poor boating conditions. Deep moisture will overspread the area from the south and produce a high coverage of rain and storms Monday into Tuesday. Then the Atlantic ridge will rebuild back to the southeast U.S. coast late in the week.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots and seas up to 6 feet south of Sebastian Inlet.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Wednesday, May 20th.
40 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
28 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
24 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
17 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
10 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
424pm EDT Sunday May 24 2020
...Flood Watch issued for portions of East Central Florida... ...Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flooding for Memorial Day... Tonight...Deep tropical moisture will continue to stream northward across east central FL through the overnight hours with low level ESE flow in the H9-H8 layer increasing to 25-30 knots. This will allow convergent bands to continue to move onshore mainly south of Sebastian Inlet through the overnight. A Flood Watch has been issued for Okeechobee/Martin and St Lucie counties starting at 4 pm with risk of heavy rainfall into the evening and then another increase in shower bands moving onshore late tonight along the Treasure Coast. From Orlando northward expect a lower shower coverage overnight in the scattered range with the heavier rain threat reaching Orlando on Memorial Day. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Memorial Day...The mid level trough approaching from the west, diffluent and divergent flow aloft and a copious amount of tropical moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) to 2.2-2.4 inches) will lead to heavy rain bands setting up across the area on Monday. The tropical wave axis lifting north across the area will lead to low level convergence which will focus very heavy rainfall bands initially along the Treasure Coast in the morning and then lifting up into Brevard/Osceola and metro Orlando by afternoon. There is a risk of training rain bands in the strengthening low level southeast flow. Areal rainfall amounts will reach 2 to 5 inches across east central FL with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 to 10 inches in a few locations. The higher amounts would likely set up along the Brevard and Treasure Coast with coastal convergence and rain bands continuing to train and stream onshore. Storm Prediction Center has placed southern portions of east central FL in a marginal risk for severe weather with curved low level hodographs favoring the potential for some rotating storms that could produce a brief tornado. High temps will be held down to around 80 with the cloud cover and heavy rainfall.
Tue-Wed...High rain chances will continue Tuesday to 70-80 percent and then dropping to 50-60 percent Wednesday. The deep moisture will begin to push off into the Atlantic on Tuesday push leave a trailing band of moisture near the coast with the highest tropical moisture along the Treasure Coast. SSW low level flow will favor the eastern side of the peninsula for a high coverage of afternoon showers and storms with the heavy rainfall threat continuing across east central FL, especially along the coastal counties. THe flow will relax somewhat Wednesday but with southerly flow and deep moisture rain chances will remain above normal with the east coast breeze pushing inland by late afternoon and triggering additional convection. Highs in the mid/upper 80s will rise to the upper 80s to around 90 on Wed.
Thursday-Saturday (Previous)...The remnants of the vigorous tropical wave will be somewhere near the GA/SC coastline as a strong surface high builds into the western Atlantic. Some of the deep moisture lingers, keeping our rain chances on the high side Thursday and Friday. Scattered to numerous showers/storms could develop each afternoon. By Saturday, as the ridge axis finally moves atop the Florida peninsula and the deep tropical moisture is filtered out, rain chances return to normal values around 30-40 percent. Temperatures look to be near normal, as afternoon highs reach the mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s inland.
Tonight...E/SE winds to 15/15-20 knots will keep seas elevated across the Atlantic. Will continue Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines south of Sebastian Inlet with the highest coverage of shower and isolated storms also expected across the southern waters overnight. Seas mainly 4-5 ft.
Monday - Thursday
A strong tropical wave will move across the Florida peninsula and local waters during the early part of the upcoming week. Heavy rainfall is increasingly likely, with a chance of thunderstorms each day from Monday through Wednesday. Boating conditions could become poor to hazardous Monday as southeast winds increase to 20 knots and seas build 5-6 feet. There is a chance some storms Monday could be strong, producing wind gusts in excess of 35 knots and waterspouts.
By Tuesday, seas diminish to 4 feet and south winds drop to 10-15 knots. By mid week, conditions improve as high pressure builds into the area late week. Still, deep moisture allows scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop each afternoon Wednesday and Thursday.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for Martin-Okeechobee-St. Lucie.
Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Indian River-Northern Brevard-Orange-Osceola-Seminole- Southern Brevard.