Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Chance Of Showers. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Thursday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...East Winds 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...East Winds 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...East Winds 10 Knots. Seas 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
256 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021
The Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain across south Florida through today, then lift slightly north into central Florida on Wednesday. Numerous offshore-moving storms over the peninsula will push offshore through this evening with high coverage of offshore-moving storms again on Wednesday. The ridge axis will move north of the area on Thursday, as deep easterly flow prevails through the weekend with high rain chances continuing.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Tuesday, June 22nd.
47 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
31 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
24 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
14 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
9 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
247pm EDT Tuesday Jun 22 2021
Through tonight...Convectively active afternoon and evening well underway with showers and lightning storms along the west coast sea breeze approaching the I-4 corridor. Showers and lightning storms are also currently developing across the Treasure Coast with the east coast sea breeze slowly pushing inland.
Boundary collisions will continue to increase coverage and intensity through the afternoon with numerous showers and storms continuing to push across the interior toward the east or northeast around 20 to 25 mph, reaching the east coast through early this evening.
The 16Z sounding from XMR certainly supports the potential for strong storms with cold temperatures aloft of -9.5C and theta-e differentials approaching 40 K. This would make the main hazards wind gusts of 50-55 mph and half inch hail, but one or two storms could become severe with one inch hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph, more likely to occur where larger boundary collisions occur.
Something else to monitor is the potential for a southward-moving outflow boundary to interact with and lead to some intensification of ongoing convection and/or develop another round of showers and storms this evening across central FL, especially with some energy aloft thanks to an upper-level trough.
Will continue Probability of Precipitation of 60-70% virtually areawide into late this evening, with convection gradually dissipating by midnight or 1 AM. Even though the atmosphere will be largely stabilized overnight, an upper-level trough moving through may generate a few additional showers during the overnight period.
Wednesday (previous)...Early on Wednesday morning a broad upper- level trough will be pushing offshore of the Eastern Seaboard, as the tail end of that trough extends into northern FL. A weak surface front also moves into the northern FL peninsula, though model consensus is that this feature washes out by the time it reaches the southern FL peninsula in the afternoon. The ridge axis of the Atlantic Subtropical Ridge will be located across the Treasure Coast, resulting in a S/SSW wind regime across central FL. Abundant moisture across the region will support numerous showers and scattered lightning storms on Wednesday, with torrential downpours and frequent lightning strikes as the main threats. Minor flooding is possible as forecast soundings show PWATs (Precipitable Waters) approaching 2.10" and slow storm motion. Abundant cloud cover should keep afternoon highs in the upper 80s, which is slightly below normal for late June.
Thursday-Monday (previous)...At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis is forecast to quickly build back north of our area, ushering in a long duration of easterly flow. Aloft, a leftover stream of vorticity from the passing upper trough will gradually organize into a weak mid/upper-level wave that remains over the FL peninsula Thursday and Friday. By the weekend this wave is forced west as a cutoff upper- level low moves from the western Atlantic towards Florida into early next week.
Generally easterly flow results in lower rain chances for us in east- central FL, however that will not be the case this time around. The presence of deep moisture and lift induced by the upper wave will support widespread showers pushing onshore along the coast and moving quickly across the peninsula, with scattered afternoon lightning storms possible. A rainy end to the week as rain chances hover close to 70 percent each day, and they could end up being higher in the coming days. Below normal afternoon highs in the mid 80s, as overnight lows settle in the low to mid 70s.
Rain chances decrease a bit over the weekend and early next week (around 50-60 percent) as the upper wave moves away from FL. However, abundant moisture remains and still supports at least scattered afternoon showers and lightning storms. Afternoon highs climb back into the upper 80s along the coast and low 90s inland, with morning lows in the low to mid 70s.
Through tonight...Numerous offshore-moving showers and lightning storms are expected this afternoon and continuing well into this evening with some producing strong winds gusts of 40 to 45 kt, small hail, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas. Outside of showers and storms, winds tonight will be out of the south to southwest at 10 to 15 kt with seas 2-3 ft.
Wednesday (previous)...The Atlantic ridge axis lifts slightly north into central FL mid week, as a weak front washes out as it moves south across the FL peninsula. High moisture results in numerous afternoon showers and lightning storms. South to southwest winds 10-15 knots in the morning become southeast in the afternoon behind the sea breeze. Seas around 2-3 feet.
Thursday-Sunday(previous)...The Atlantic ridge axis lifts north of our area, producing a long period of east winds across the local waters. Deep moisture and an upper wave will produce widespread marine showers and a scattered lightning storms Thursday and Friday. Over the weekend, rain chances decrease a bit but still expect scattered afternoon showers and storms, especially along the coast. The long fetch of east winds will build seas to 3-4 feet Friday, and 4-5 feet over the weekend.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories