Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming East Towards Daybreak. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Wednesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
| East Central Florida Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
819pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023
Currently...Quiet and stable conds locally due to dryer north to NE winds. The current forecast will remain valid at this time.
Tonight/Tue...High pressure will remain in control of our weather with a veering wind flow from NE tonight to E on Tue. Seasonably cool temps tonight under mostly clear skies with mins in the upper 40s to lower 50s interior/Volusia. A little milder along the coast south of the Cape due to the light onshore flow, holding in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The high pressure center slides off the Carolina coast on Tuesday and winds will veer out of the East. The pressure gradient will support breezy conditions along the coast at 15 mph and gusty. There will be some fair weather marine stratocu that will pancake beneath a strong subsidence inversion near 4k ft. No rain expected as moisture layer is very thin. Max temps a couple/few degrees warmer reaching the mid 70s coast and upper 70s interior.
Wednesday-Thursday...Surface and upper level ridging over the Southeast US early in the period drifts eastward into the Atlantic through Thursday ahead of an approaching trough. Until then, dry conditions prevailing, though the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) suggests there could be a few showers over western portions of the peninsula Thursday afternoon. Easterly winds around 5-10mph veering southeast/south- southeast into Thursday. Warming, with highs in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday increasing to the low to mid-80s Thursday. Overnight lows Wednesday morning in the mid to upper 50s (with lower 60s along the immediate coast) warming to the mid-60s by Thursday night.
Friday - Sunday
odified previous)....Global model guidance has come into much better agreement with the timing of the surface and mid level features forecast to impact Florida during the end of the week/weekend. A highly amplified pos-tilt mid level short wave trough crosses the MS Valley Fri night, acquiring a neutral tilt as it crosses the eastern CONUS from the Great Lakes to FL, moving rapidly across the state Sat-Sat night. Ahead of the mid level system, a pre- frontal trough will sweep across the peninsula Fri evening, followed by the actual front overnight into Sat morning.
Previous differences in timing between the GFS (Global Forecast System) and ECMWF have been resolved (at least for the 12Z run), with both models in good agreement for the front clearing the SE CWA (County Warning Area) between late morning and early afternoon. POPs 30-50 percent Fri afternoon-Fri night, with a slight chance for lingering showers early Sat (mainly along the coast and south).
After a warm end to the week, cooler temps for Sat night/Sunday as the strong post-frontal high pressure ridge builds into FL. Max temps Fri pushing well into 80s in increasing SW flow ahead of the strong cold front, dropping back to the 50s areawide Fri night behind its passage. Maxes in the 60s this weekend with widespread 40s for mins Sat night and 40s inland to L-M50s coast Sunday night.
Issued at 819pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023
Currently...Will keep the caution stmt in place for the outer segments as winds counter the Gulf Stream current overnight, and some choppy higher seas near 6 ft are likely especially near the current.
Tonight/Tue...High pressure over the eastern US will push SE and off the Carolina coast Tuesday afternoon. In response, winds will veer northeast tonight at 10-15 knots. Will continue the Caution headline into this evening for seas 5-6 feet offshore but seas will subside below 6 ft by early Tue. Winds turn out of the East Tuesday with pressure gradient supporting 10-15 knots across the northern (Volusia) waters and 15 knots elsewhere. Choppy seas 3-5 feet.
Wednesday-Saturday...High pressure mid week drifting into the Atlantic late week ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Dry conditions through Thursday, with increasing shower chances Friday and Saturday as the front moves through the local waters. Onshore flow Wednesday around 10-15kts becoming SSE/SE Thursday. Then, southerly winds 15-20kts Friday veering NW Saturday behind the front. Seas 3-4ft early in the period building to 4-6ft Wednesday night into Thursday. Behind the front, seas building to 6-8ft in the Gulf Stream, with 4-6ft across the nearshore waters.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories