Marine Weather Net

Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line Marine Forecast


THIS AFTERNOON

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUNDAY

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ550 Forecast Issued: 1029 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022

This Afternoon...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Dominant Period 4 Seconds. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Early In The Morning, Then Numerous Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Dominant Period 4 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms In The Evening.
Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Sunday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Wednesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1123am EDT Sat May 21 2022

Currently, it's quiet across east-central Florida with mostly dry conditions across the state. Meanwhile, the western Atlantic ridge continues to stretch across the state of Florida, however, weak waves of upper-level energy continue to pivot along the outer edge of the ridge and along the subtropical jetstream. Upstream of east-central Florida, a weak shortwave trough is located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which can be depicted by an area of PVA and increased PWAT (Precipitable Water) values over 2." Showers and lightning storms will develop as we head into the afternoon hours as surface winds on the west coast veer onshore ahead of the shortwave. Precipitation is forecast to increase in coverage as outflow from storms upstream collide with sea and lake breeze interactions to trigger numerous showers and lightning storms to develop over east-central Florida today. High instability (Surface CAPE around 5,000 J/kg), sufficient bulk shear, conditionally to absolutely unstable lapse rates, very high moisture, cool temperatures aloft (-10C at 500mb), SHIP around 1 or higher, in addition to, low-to- moderate SCP/STP values, as well as decent upper level divergence means that a few storms may become strong to severe this afternoon. The main hazards with any strong storms that develop will be heavy rainfall, wind gusts up to 50-60mph, hail around 1," frequent lightning strikes, and flooding. Torrential downpours will produce 1 to 2 inches in many locations today, with local amounts up to around 3 to 5 inches in a few spots which receive multiple rounds of storms. This threat will be highest along and north of I-4. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.

/issued 335am EDT Sat May 21 2022/

Current...Lingering mid-upper level forced ascent has been maintaining convection/associated debris rain across the northern CWA all night, with local radars showing precipitation now limited to Lake/Volusia Counties, and lifting NE-ward. A widespread canopy of mid/upper clouds also extend south across the southern CWA, with some breaks noted near the Lake O/Treasure Coast region. Current temps are in the L70s areawide.

Today - Tonight
Setup for scattered (south) to widespread (central and north) diurnal convection remains in place. Deepest moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) ~1.8") will shift to the northern half, with values dropping back to about 1.5/1.6" around Lake Okeechobee. While mid level ascent wanes, upper level divergence continues overhead through early evening, before shifting offshore into the Atlantic. The western Atlantic ridge axis shifts to NOFL, resulting in a light- moderate SE-SSE flow over ECFL. Convection should get an somewhat early start again, but more likely to take place across the far north where deeper moisture, and leftover outflow/differential heating boundaries may be present, ahead of the ECSB passage.

Lower PWAT (Precipitable Water) air associated with the mid level reflection of the Atlantic ridge expanding west will start to infiltrate the SE CWA by this afternoon, so have lower POPs there to 40, trending up to 80 percent from I-4 northward. SW steering flow is a little stronger which will lead to a better chance for strong storms, however like Fri, repeated rounds of storms could produce local amounts of 2-4" once again, which could cause local flooding or some roads, urban and poor drainage areas. Max temps in the M-U80s, with lowest maxes expected north due due clouds and earlier precipitation onset. Mins in the L70s.

Sunday-Monday...A weak pressure pattern coupled with suitable lingering moisture will lead to development of diurnal showers and inland storms Monday. Coverage should be lower than what occurred during the weekend. Some locally heavy rain will be possible inland due to a weakly steered environment and numerous boundary interactions. A developing ridge begins to form aloft near the peninsula during Mon, and adt'l drying should keep daytime coverage in the low scattered category inland with isolated showers/storms along the coast.

Extended...Broad and weakly formed ridge aloft just east of the state by Tuesday will remain in place through midweek, leading to a reduction of avbl moisture, and continuation of Iso-Sct Probability of Precipitation daily through midweek. An onshore flow pattern will bring seasonal temperatures with lows in the L-M 70s and highs in the U80s to L90s, and a better rain chance inland from the coast. LL flow pattern will become primarily sly around Fri as a broad continental trough migrates over the SE states. This pattern evolution should increase rain/storm chances Fri into Saturday.

Marine
Today - Tonight
SE-S winds 10-15kt, backing slightly near shore in the afternoon. Seas 2-3ft. Main concern for boaters continues to be strong offshore-moving TS during the late afternoon and evening, most likely north of Sebastian Inlet northward, where highest inland diurnal coverage is expected, along with stronger SW steering flow.

Sunday-Monday...Seas range from 2 to 3 feet early week with winds SE-E 9 to 14 kts. Winds and seas have potential to be enhanced by storms over the waters as well as storms moving offshore from the mainland, esp for the nearshore waters from the Cape northward.

Extended...Favorable marine conditions with a reduction of storms through mid week. Expect E-SE winds around 12 to 16 kts with seas 3 ft Tue, becoming 3 to 4 ft through midweek.

NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None.