Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line Marine Forecast
|Tonight...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 7 Feet With A Dominant Period 12 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Tuesday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period 12 Seconds. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 11 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Wednesday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 5 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.|
|Friday...South Winds 5 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
307 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019
West-northwest winds and a northeast swell continue to generate rough seas into Tuesday evening. High pressure to build across the Southeast U.S. veering winds by Wednesday as improving boating conditions return into midweek.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Northwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Saturday, November 16th.
45 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
35 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
30 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
23 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
16 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
236pm EST Monday Nov 18 2019
Currently and Tonight...Departure of the early clouds has led to a nice day, with temps rebounding into the 70s. West to NW winds will become light to calm with darkness, and some patchy ground fog will be possible in some spots mainly inland early Tuesday morning. Expect overnight lows in the L-M50s.
Tuesday...A shortwave aloft will pass during the day largely unnoticeable, except for some mid-higher clouds. Temperatures will warm into the 70s with modest W-NW winds.
Wednesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Despite mostly sunny skies, the northerly breeze will keep max temps in the low/mid 70s through midweek, about 3-5F below average. Cool air advection with the NW breeze Tuesday night will allow a drainage flow to develop over the FL Peninsula that will push Wednesday morning temps into the mid/upper 40s across the interior, and into the low/mid 50s along the immediate coast, which is roughly 5-10F below average. Winds begin to veer onshore by Wednesday night, allowing temps to recover to the low/mid 50s, which is near average for late fall.
Thursday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Progressive weather pattern shaping up for the latter half of the week as the 300mb- 200mb jet pattern takes on a strong zonal component. The ridge axis will move off the eastern seaboard by daybreak Friday ahead of a new high amplitude frontal trough pushing across the MS Valley. This trough will push the next cold front through central FL over the weekend. Some disparity between the GFS and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) models as to the timing of the frontal passage. GFS suggesting a Sat/Sat night event, ECM hinting as a slower, Sun/Monday event. However, neither model indicates much of an impact as the frontal axis takes on a positive tilt as it develops over the Central Plains.
Temps continue to modify into the weekend with winds shifting to due east on Thursday, south/southeast on Friday, south/southwest on Saturday, then due west on Sunday. Limited time for full airmass modification will keep temps largely within 5 degrees of average.
Tonight and Tue...Current wind and wave guidance keeps an advisory in place overnight, and then will begin to trim back the advisory over portions of the near shore waters early Tuesday with expectations on higher seas being confined over the outer waters and gulf stream by Tuesday afternoon. High tides will have potential for further beach erosion through tonight.
Tuesday Night...Hazardous seas will slowly improve, anticipate Small Craft Advisory conditions to remain in place for much of the local Atlantic waters into early Wednesday. Winds veering from W/NW to N/NW in a gentle to moderate breeze. Seas subsiding to 4-5 feet nearshore, and 5-6 feet offshore.
Wednesday...A strong area of high pressure to build over the Deep South, forcing winds diminish to a light to gentle breeze while veering to due north during the day, then northeast overnight into Thursday. Seas subsiding to 3-4 feet nearshore and from 4-5 feet offshore.
Thursday-Friday...Winds will continue to shift through late week as the high pressure builds into the western Atlantic. Winds become light to gentle from the east by Thursday afternoon. Then, winds shift to south/southwest by late Friday morning. Steady state seas expected, 2-3 feet nearshore and 3-4 feet offshore.
A drying trend continues through midweek with forecast min RH values inland getting into the lower to mid 30s beginning Tuesday. No rain is forecast at least through the remainder of the work week.
The river level on the Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to stay in Minor Flood Stage for the foreseeable future. The combination of north winds and higher than normal tide levels downstream is preventing water from discharging at a normal rate, resulting in higher river levels upstream.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Surf Advisory until 3am EST Tuesday for Coastal Volusia- Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St. Lucie.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Tuesday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.