Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With A Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Rough On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers Likely. |
| Friday...North Winds 25 To 30 Knots. Seas 9 To 12 Feet. Very Rough On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers. |
| Friday Night...North Winds 25 To 30 Knots Diminishing To 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Seas 10 To 13 Feet. Very Rough On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers. |
| Saturday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 9 To 12 Feet. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers. |
| Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 6 To 9 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Sunday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. |
| Monday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Chance Of Showers. |
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Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500 319 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 A weak frontal boundary has pushed into the local waters and will become near stationary tonight and Thursday. Strong high pressure to the north will build over the local Atlantic waters Thursday night through Friday night and produce a surge of North winds with gusts to Gale force. High pressure will push east across the western Atlantic this weekend and weaken, allowing winds to gradually decrease but seas will be slower to subside. Gulf Stream Hazards: None. The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Monday, February 17th. 41 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet. 29 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet. 14 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet. 9 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 316pm EST Wednesday Feb 19 2020 Current - Tonight Surface heating, weak instability, and modest moisture have allowed for ISOLD/WDLY SCT showers across the area this afternoon. Movement has been toward the north or northeast at 10 to 15 mph. A weak surface ridge axis will remain suppressed south/east as a weak surface trough drops south across the peninsula and becomes quasi-stationary over the central peninsula. Winds will gradually become NW-NNE behind the boundary while remaining light southerly ahead of it. The boundary begins to wash out this evening and overnight as surface winds become light NNE-NE areawide. Generally, considerably cloudy to MCloudy sky conditions will continue overnight. With vicinity of boundary and residual moisture will keep a small Probability of Precipitation in areawide overnight for light precip. Any spots that see a little clearing may encounter localized patchy fog, else some low stratus may be more plentiful toward sunrise Thu morning. Rather mild conditions again overnight with lows in the 60s areawide. Thu...As the former boundary washes out across the central FL peninsula, winds will gradually become south to southwest during the day in response to a stronger boundary pressing southward that will approach the I-4 corridor by sunset. This boundary will be encouraged southward by mid-level shortwave energy aloft. Surface winds may veer northwest to north late in day north of I-4 depending on speed of the front. Moisture will again start to pool over the area ahead of this feature. Another unseasonably warm day is in store for much of the forecast area. Expect I-4 corridor northward to find the U70s to L80s with M80s and perhaps a few U80s further southward which could approach records for this date. An isolated shower threat early in the period will become more scattered (30- 40pct) during the afternoon from Indian River County northward. While there may be some breaks in the clouds at times during this day, expect considerably cloudy skies overall. Thu night-Fri night (previous modified)...A cold front will be extending from off the coast of southeast U.S. towards northeast FL and northeast Gulf of Mexico on Thu evening. As the low moves northeast overnight, the front will push south over the FL peninsula and exit the Treasure Coast on Fri morning. Isolated to scattered showers will reach east central FL ahead and behind the front. These will affect east central FL on Thu night as winds ahead of the front keeps a westerly wind flow. And as the front moves over the area, wind flow and showers will be from the northwest to north overnight and from the north by Fri morning. Windy, cloudy and cooler conditions expected on Friday with scattered showers brushing the coast in the strong northerly flow behind the cold front. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for the coast (if not farther inland as well) for northerly winds increasing to 20 to 25 mph and gusts up to around 35 mph. Highs will range from the upper 50s across Volusia/northern Lake counties to upper 60s to low 70s across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. As cold air advection continues into Friday night, temperatures will continue to plummet, falling into the mid-upper 40s near to northwest of the I-4 corridor and in the 50s farther southeast and along the coast. Sat-Sat night (previous modified)...Winds will veer to the northeast into Saturday as high builds across the southeast U.S., with breezy conditions still expected along the coast. Highs will still be cooler than normal, in the mid to upper 60s, except around 70 degrees across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Low level northeast flow will continue to transport isolated to scattered showers onshore, mainly impacting the coast during the day and be limited at night over the waters with a few reaching the Treasure Coast. Lows will drop to the 50s for most of the forecast area. Sun-Wednesday (previous)...Low level winds will continue to veer through late weekend into early next week. Winds will initially weaken as they shift to the east on Sunday, and then increase once again out of the south to southeast into Monday, as high shifts east of the Mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure and cold front over the central U.S. shifts eastward. The 00z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) wants to move this front through the area into Tuesday, while the GFS 00z kept it to the north. However, even with the ECMWF, the frontal passage looks rather weak, with an overall warming trend expected from Sunday through at least Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid 70s Sunday and in the upper 70s to low 80s on Monday-Tuesday. While Sunday looks to be rather dry, increasing moisture in the more southerly flow into next week should be sufficient enough to keep low end rain chances in the forecast. Marine Afternoon-Tonight...A weak frontal trough approaching from the north will become quasi-stationary later today/evening south of the Cape. isolated to SCT showers/sprinkles will be forecast over the next 24 hours due to coastal troughing/convergence, ample moisture and approaching stronger weather system. Winds N/NE behind the boundary and generally southerly ahead of it. Boundary is shown to lift back northward late in the night into Thu as winds become south/southwest across much of the coastal waters, but may remain northerly north of the Cape, especially closer towards the coast. Wind speeds remaining at or below 15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft offshore north of Sebastian Inlet. Thu...Another (stronger) front will approach the northern waters late in the day with a stronger northerly surge behind it. Scattered showers are forecast again. Lighter morning winds will become S/SW and increase during the day to 10-15 kts over the open Atlantic ahead of the approaching front. Initial seas 2-4 ft building to 3-4 ft near shore and 5 ft offshore, north of Sebastian Inlet by late day. Small Craft Advisories and/or a Gale Watch/Warning will be necessary as both winds/seas are forecast to deteriorate and become very hazardous behind the latest front. Thu night-Fri night (previous modified)...A cold front will pass across central Florida on Thu night and exiting the waters east of the Treasure Coast on Fri morning. Strong northerly surge behind this front will build southward across the waters after midnight Thursday through the day on Friday, with wind speeds increasing as high as 25- 30 knots, gusting frequently to Gale force across much of the waters. Seas will also increase rapidly, building to 8-12ft near shore and up to 14-16ft offshore from Friday into Friday evening. A Gale Warning will likely be needed over much, if not all the waters during this timeframe for these dangerous boating conditions. Sat-Monday (previous modified)...Boating conditions are expected to remain hazardous through the weekend. Winds will veer to the northeast Saturday and to the east on Sunday, with winds speeds gradually decreasing as pressure gradient relaxes. Wind speeds will drop from around 15-20 knots Saturday to 10-15 knots over much of the waters on Sunday. However, seas will be very slow to subside, with large wave heigheights up to 10-15 feet away from the coast Saturday, diminishing to 7-9 feet on Sunday. By Monday, a high pressure will be to our northeast and local winds will continue to veer and will persist from the southeast during the day. Current model guidance suggest that perhaps the offshore waters will see winds increasing to 15-20 knots but just during the day. Seas will continue to subside on Monday and possibly drop below 7 ft in the afternoon. Climate Another day of above normal temperatures. Below are the records for highs and warm lows for today. Sites with a "*" are on track to set/tied the record by the end of the day: LOC HI MAX WARM MIN DAB 86 1990 *66 1994 LEE 85 2018 *66 1975 SFB 88 2012 *65 1990 MCO *88 1962 *67 1992 MLB 88 1975 73 2018 VRB 87 2012 71 1961 FPR 88 1992 71 2019 NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. |
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