Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line Marine Forecast
|Today...Southwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Tonight...West Winds 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Thursday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.|
|Friday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Numerous Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...Southwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Numerous Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms.|
Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
357 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020
An area of low pressure over the Carolinas and the Atlantic ridge axis across south Florida will produce a southwest to west wind flow the remainder of the week. This flow will be strong enough to either delay or prevent east coast sea breeze development each afternoon, and if the sea breeze should develop it will remain along the coastal counties. Above normal coverage of showers and storms will continue through late week, with this activity reaching the intracoastal and nearshore Atlantic waters each afternoon from the west.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Sunday, July 5th. 44 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
33 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
24 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
17 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
10 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
436am EDT Wednesday July 8 2020
...Storm Coverage Will Remain At or Above Normal Through Late Week... Today - Tonight
Low pressure will shift slowly E/NE over the Carolinas today, with a weak surface trough associated with this system sliding southward into North Florida. Deeper moisture associated with this feature will spread across the area, with model PW values (Precipitable Water values) increasing to 2-2.3" through the afternoon. This will continue above normal rain chances across the area, with Probability of Precipitation ranging from 60-70 percent. Hi-res model guidance all seem to be in good agreement with a broken band of showers/storms developing across north Florida during the predawn hours aided by an approaching mid-level shortwave. This band of convection will then shift southward into Lake and Volusia counties into the morning hours and continue southward through Orlando to the Cape by late morning/early afternoon. Additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are then expected to develop farther south through the remainder of the afternoon, with repeated rounds of convective development possible across northern central Florida.
Low level offshore flow looks to be strong enough to prevent sea breeze formation for much of the east central Florida coast, with the exception being along the coast of Martin and potentially St. Lucie counties. While this will limit potential for boundary interactions and enhanced thunderstorm development along much of the coast as it has the past few days, a few stronger storms will still be possible. Main threats will be frequent lighting strikes, gusty winds up to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall, as storms move E/SE and offshore up to 15 to 20 mph. An earlier start to convection across Lake and Volusia counties will likely keep max temps limited to the upper 80s/near 90 degrees. However, farther south highs will be able to reach the low 90s, potentially mid 90s along coastal sections south of the Cape due to lack of a sea breeze, before storm coverage increases across the region.
Rain chances will then decrease into the evening as convection pushes offshore, with only a slight chance for showers continuing after midnight northwest of I-4. Temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s.
Thu...Weak low pressure will be along the North Carolina coast with the Atlantic subtropical ridge axis remaining across south FL. These two features will maintain a west to southwest (offshore) flow pattern across EC FL. This will at least delay the east coast sea breeze formation and produce slightly above normal temperatures in the low to mid 90s. The deepest moisture is forecast to shift east of the area but precipitation water values will remain high, close to 2 inches. So have drawn 40-50 percent PoPs across the area which is very climatological for early July.
Temperatures aloft look warm with -5C to -6C at 500 mb and unimpressive lapse rates. However, forecast model soundings show some drier air aloft which should promote additional gustiness. A few strong storms will be possible especially where boundary collisions occur (think outflow and sea/lake breezes). Lightning strikes will be the primary threat as is typical in July. Heavy rainfall will occur but westerly steering flow around 20 knots should keep storms moving so accumulations should be manageable.
Fri-Tue...Models continue to show surface low shifting N/NE along the mid Atlc/New England coast this weekend. A lingering frontal boundary will be left in the wake of this low, remaining nearly stationary north of Florida. An amplifying upper trough over the eastern U.S. will keep the Atlantic ridge axis south of the area resulting in a continued offshore (W/SW) flow pattern across the region.
Deeper moisture will build back across central Florida with higher rain chances of 60-70 percent expected each day, as scattered to numerous afternoon storms continue to develop and push eastward across the area and offshore into early evening. An increase in W/SW low level winds through late week and into the weekend may be enough to limit or prevent east coast sea breeze development, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s each day before convection and cloud cover increase across the area.
Today - Tonight
An increase in low level offshore flow is expected to keep winds out of the W/SW up to 10-15 knots north of Sebastian Inlet. Winds a forecast to become more southerly around 5-10 knots across the Treasure Coast waters later this afternoon where the sea breeze has a better chance to develop. Winds will then prevail out of the W/SW over the entire waters into tonight with speeds up to 10- 15 knots. Seas will continue to range from 1-3 feet.
Earlier start to offshore moving gusty storms will be possible across the Volusia coast this morning, with additional scattered to numerous storms pushing offshore of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast through the afternoon. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor as storms approach from the coast from the west today.
Thu-Sun...Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of the local Atlc waters, across south FL, with W/SW wind flow dominating. Onshore flow should develop near the coast most afternoons behind the sea breeze but formation could be quite late some days and even not at all if the offshore flow is too strong. The threshold is roughly 15 knots at 850 mb. Wind speeds forecast to remain 15 knots or less with seas 1-3 feet, increasing 4-5 feet offshore Sat-Sunday in a combination of wind wave and swell.
Main threat to boaters will continue to be scattered to numerous offshore moving storms producing frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds, mainly from mid afternoon through early evening each day.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories