Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line Marine Forecast
|Today...Northeast Winds 5 Knots Becoming East In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet With A Dominant Period 7 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Numerous Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers Likely And Scattered Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers Likely And Scattered Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South After Midnight. Seas 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...Southwest Winds 5 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Showers Likely And Scattered Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
434 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021
A weak surface trough draped across central Florida and the adjacent Atlantic today will remain across the area through the start of the workweek before it dissipates as high pressure builds over the region. Light and variable winds will become southeast Monday and Tuesday, then veer to south and southwest Wednesday ahead of an approaching cool front. The front will stall across central Florida late this week. Seas of 2 to 3 feet through tonight will increase to 3 to 4 feet well offshore during the work week as a small swell develops over the local Atlantic.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Saturday, September 18th.
42 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
30 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
23 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
14 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
9 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
445am EDT Sunday September 19 2021
...Unsettled Weather Pattern Through the Upcoming Week... Currently - Tonight
A weak mid-level trough will remain west of Florida for the next 24hrs with a downstream ridge extending E-NE from the peninsula into the western Atlantic. The residual diffuse surface trough over the state will gradually wash out by the start of the workweek. This setup will continue the pattern of weak surface and steering flow once again. Anomalously deep tropical moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of 2.2" to 2.4") remaining in place, coupled with the aforementioned weak wind flow, will result in another day of slow-moving diurnally forced convection, with locally heavy rainfall, and the continued threat for localized flooding.
Little rainfall is expected until this afternoon when the local sea breezes form, with scattered-to-numerous showers/storms developing as they progress inland. A slightly favored west coast sea breeze will set up a collision from NE Lake county, through Orlando to near Lake Okeechobee. Outflow boundaries from early storms will initiate several rounds of additional storms. H50 temps -4C to -6C will limit mean CAPE values/updraft strength, and confine primary storm threat to heavy rainfall (2-4" or so). The potential for additional localized flooding continues, especially in areas that have already received substantial rainfall over the past several days. Frequent lightning and isolated wind gusts 35-45 mph will also be possible. Showers from convective debris should last well into the late evening. High temperatures will be mostly in the U80s with L90s interior south. Min in the L-M70s.
Monday-Tuesday... The upper-level longwave pattern will begin to transition to zonal flow over the United States as we kick off the workweek. In the mid and lower levels, an inverted trough will remain stalled out just off the the northeastern Florida coast with high pressure building over the western Atlantic, as well as, the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The unsettled weather pattern will continue with a moist and unstable airmass in place. Guidance continues to suggest that precipitable water values will remain high with values in the 2.2-2.5" range across east-central Florida through Tuesday. Deep west-southwest flow on the western side of Florida is expected to continue to pump in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico while the disturbance off the northeast coast of Florida also helps advect moisture from the western Atlantic, especially as weak onshore flow develops on the east coast during the afternoon hours. The aforementioned set-up will produce widespread precipitation across the Space Coast to start off the week as increased surface convergence helps trigger precipitation to develop each day. Primarily diurnally driven scattered-to- numerous showers and storms will develop during the afternoon hours as local sea breeze collisions and outflow from developing thunderstorms collide. The steering flow is forecast to remain slow and erratic with several synoptic features causing a chaotic wind regime across the region, which will likely lead to a variable and slow storm motion. With the continued unsettled weather pattern over east-central Florida and persistent rain in some spots, flooding will continue to be the main concern with any storms that develop. The main threats from any isolated strong storms that develop will be heavy rainfall, flooding, and wind gusts to 40-50mph. The best chance for rain will be across inland locations, especially west of I-95 and along I-4. High temperatures will remain near normal as they top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to reach the low-to- mid 70s.
Wednesday-Saturday... The upper-level longwave ridge over the eastern half of the country will begin to break down as a strong upper-level trough deepens and digs southeastward over the Northeast. At the same time, high pressure will retrograde across the Gulf of Mexico with a pre-frontal shortwave moving into northern Florida by Wednesday evening. PW values (Precipitable Water values) will stay around 2" or higher through at least mid-week which means scattered-to- numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast each day, especially during the afternoon hours. Increased rain chances will continue through the end of the week as the frontal boundary moves through central Florida on Thursday into Friday. Models indicate that drier and cooler air will move in behind the front towards next weekend. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s for highs with lows in the low-to-mid 70s.
Current - Tonight
Boating conditions are forecast to remain mostly favorable through the period. Winds will be light and variable, less than 10kts and mostly around 5kts. Coastal winds will become easterly in the afternoon with the onset of the sea breeze. Scattered showers and storms will be possible near the coast in the afternoon, with isolated showers and storms across the coastal and offshore waters possible. Seas 1-2ft nearshore and up to 3ft offshore.
Monday - Thursday
Winds will primarily remain light at 5-10kts from the south-southeast through Wednesday before veering to the north-northeast by Thursday. Seas will remain favorable for boaters with wave heigheights around 1-3 ft nearshore and wave heigheights reaching up to 4 ft well offshore. Scattered-to-numerous showers and lighting storms will remain in the forecast through the forecast period each day, especially as storms develop and move onshore during the afternoon hours and then weaken and push offshore overnight.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories