Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots Becoming East 15 To 20 Knots In The Late Evening And Overnight With Occasional Gusts To Gale Force Possible. Seas 9 To 12 Feet With A Dominant Period 13 Seconds. Rough On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 8 To 11 Feet With A Dominant Period 13 Seconds. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 7 To 10 Feet With A Dominant Period 13 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Wednesday...East Winds 10 Knots. Seas 7 To 10 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Wednesday Night...East Winds 10 Knots. Seas 7 To 10 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
351 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020
Vary hazardous marine conditions continue tonight with fully arisen seas 10 to 13 feet near shore and 14 to 17 feet offshore. Winds will begin to diminish overnight and into midweek. However, large long period swells will continue to produce hazardous conditions.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with occasional gusts to Gale Force through this evening.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Sunday, September 20th. 37 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
27 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
24 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
15 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
10 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
359pm EDT Monday September 21 2020
...Additional Beach Erosion and Minor Coastal Flooding With High Tide Tonight and Tuesday
Current...A tight NE gradient has allowed for windy conditions across ECFL today. The pressure gradient has been tighter across the northern sections and a little "wider" towards the southern part of the state, allowing for slightly stronger winds and wind gusts along the Volusia and Brevard coasts that spread inland through the afternoon. Scattered showers have been pushing quickly to the southwest through this afternoon.
Tonight-Tomorrow...By this evening, only lingering activity is expected as drier air makes its way across the peninsula from the north, with forecasted Global PW values (Precipitable Water values) of 1.05-1.20 inches. Probability of Precipitation drop after 8 PM, with only scattered chance of Gulf Stream showers possible through the overnight period and into the early morning hours along the coast and across northern Lake and Volusia counties. By tomorrow afternoon there will be a slight chance of rain everywhere except southwestern Lake, eastern Osceola, and Okeechobee counties. Conditions will remain breezy/gusty tonight esp along the coast. Winds not quite as strong tomorrow but still 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal for this time of year, with highs hovering in the low to mid 80s tomorrow with overnight temperatures in the upper 60s low 70s tonight.
Wednesday...Dry pattern will continue for Wednesday, as the pressure gradient weakens further supporting 10-15 mph winds. Rain chances are less than 20 percent and will not mention in the forecast. Max temps in the mid 80s. Lows in the mid to upper 60s interior but holding in the lower 70s along the coast due to persistent onshore flow off warm sea surface temps. Large, long period swells will continue to impact the surf zone so have extended the High Surf Advisory through Wednesday along with a High Risk of rip currents.
Thursday-Weekend (previous)...Higher Probability of Precipitation begin to return on Thursday, as the high pressure shifts further eastward into the Atlantic. With winds shifting to SE on the western periphery of the high, moist air will be ushered back in as PWATs (Precipitable Waters) over 2" return by Saturday. Thus, increasing Probability of Precipitation into the weekend, with 20-40% from north to south on Thursday becoming 50-60% for the weekend. High temperatures will also rebound back into the upper 80s/lower 90s, while lows remain in the low to mid 70s.
Tonight-Tomorrow...The Gale Warning will be allowed to expire at 4pm, with a Small Craft Advisory replacing it, going out until 8pm on Wednesday. Winds will be NE around 25 KT with occasional gusts to gale force possible this evening. Tomorrow, winds will be ENE around 20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT. Distant Hurricane Teddy will keep wave heigheights 9-11 ft nearshore and 12-13 ft offshore waters with a dominate period of 13 seconds. "Teddy" will continue to produce high surf with additional beach erosion and minor coastal flooding through tomorrow. Water levels on the intracoastal waters will also rise with localized flooding adjacent to the river/lagoon.
Wednesday - Thursday
High pressure over the eastern U.S. slides southward towards the local area and the pressure gradient eases. Onshore E/SE flow will continue, but further decrease to 10-15kts for Wednesday and Thursday. Despite the drop in wind speeds, seas will remain elevated through the period. Wave heigheights 10-13ft for Tuesday will subside to 9-12ft on Wednesday, then 7-9ft for Thursday. As a result, have extended the Small Craft Advisory, High Surf Advisory and High Risk of rip currents through Wednesday afternoon.
High Tides Tonight Tuesday
Daytona Bch 1211am 1249pm Sebastian Inlt 1158pm 1243pm Fort Pierce 1215am 100pm
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Moderate Flood, before very slowly decreasing. The Saint Johns River above Lake Harney has reached Action Stage, and is forecast to remain steady in Action Stage through this week. The river is forecast to reach Action Stage at Sanford and Deland in the next couple days. Northeast winds and high astronomical tides are combining to prevent normal discharge on the Saint Johns River. Refer to Flood Statements from NWS Melbourne for the river levels and forecasts near Astor and Lake Harney, which will be updated daily while the points remain in flood stage.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Surf Advisory until 8pm EDT Wednesday for Coastal Volusia- Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St. Lucie.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4pm EDT Tuesday for Indian River- Martin-St. Lucie.
Wind Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for Coastal Volusia- Indian River-Inland Volusia-Martin-Northern Brevard-Orange- Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard-St. Lucie.
Coastal Flood Warning until 4pm EDT Tuesday for Coastal Volusia- Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for Northern Lake- Okeechobee-Southern Lake.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet 0-60 nm.