Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line Marine Forecast
| Today...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots Late In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 11 Seconds. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Thursday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 11 Seconds. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday Night...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Friday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. |
| Saturday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. |
| Sunday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers. |
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Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500 402 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020 Long period swells will continue to gradually diminish over the local Atlantic waters today, as the high pressure ridge axis shifts south of the local Atlantic waters. This will produce a veering wind flow becoming west today and Thursday. A cold front is then forecast to cross the area Friday, with winds increasing out of the north to northwest. Gulf Stream Hazards: Westerly winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots tonight. The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Tuesday, April 7th. 42 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet. 29 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral. 22 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet. 15 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet. 10 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 358am EDT Wednesday April 8 2020 ...Near-Record High Temperatures Today and Tomorrow... Today...Surface high pressure to the northeast of the Bahamas will slide to the south and east setting up the surface ridge axis just south of Florida. As a result light southerly to southwesterly flow will steadily veer to westerly through this morning. The westerly winds will then increase to around 10 mph by late morning with gusts of 15-20 mph at times in the afternoon. Expectation is that the flow will at least delay the development of the east coast breeze until late afternoon and keep it pinned close to the coast or possibly be strong enough to prevent it altogether. Either way, it will be a very warm day across east central Florida with plentiful sunshine across most the area. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to near 90 inland and upper 80s to low 90s toward the east coast, threatening some daily record high temperatures (see climate section below). Deeper moisture across northern areas may keep temperatures a degree or two "cooler" with a bit more cloud cover and also combined with daytime heating a few showers could develop this afternoon, mainly from Leesburg to Sanford and points northward. Tonight...The pressure gradient will remain fairly tight supporting winds of 10-15 mph keeping the atmosphere mixed overnight. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees it will be very mild with lows only falling into the upper 60s to low 70s. Thu-Fri...The latter half of the week begins an unusually active synoptic pattern for the southeastern CONUS, with evolution of a split flow upstream. A subtropical jet will eject out of old Mexico during Thu, and approach the eastern Gulf Thu night. Increasing moisture and winds aloft will bring unsettled conditions to the northernmost areas, and a small chance of showers will unfold during the afternoon Thu and into Thu night mainly across areas north of metro Orlando. Early Fri, a cold front will press southward from N FL as a broad upper trough swings across the SE. Proximity of a notable ascent region of the earlier mentioned 100+kt jet, and suitable moisture will increase shower chances areawide, along with a small chance of perhaps elevated thunder. expect a cooler day with highs only in the L70s N to L80s southernmost sections ahead of the front. Showers taper from W-E Fri night with post frontal lows on the cool side in the L50s N to L60s S. Weekend...A cut-off low responsible for split flow pattern will eject out of the NM/TX region late Sat. Locally, the front which passed on Fri will return back to the north as a warm front, leaving a surface boundary favorable for development of showers and a robust warm sector quickly evolves across the area by Sat night. A small chance of rain will be mentioned Sat with this feature as temperatures rebound to the L80s. During Sun, the ejecting low will contribute to additional height falls upstream across the Lower MS Valley to eastern Gulf and with deep moisture and presence of an approaching trough rain chances will increase somewhat During Sun, along with a chance of storms. Next week...Med range guid settles the trough feature across the peninsula early in the week, and a mentionable rain chance along with possibility of thunder will account with some uncertainty of effects of a surface trough feature to the area. The forecast is lower than normal confidence past Sunday. Marine Today...Southwesterly winds around 15 kt early will veer westerly through this morning with the ridge axis south of Florida. Expect a 10-15 kt breeze through early afternoon that will diminish and back to around 10 kt as the sea breeze tries to develop. Seas will run 2- 4 ft nearshore and 3-4 ft nearshore. Tonight...Boating conditions will become poor as westerly winds increase to 15-20 kt (mainly offshore) with the pressure gradient tightening. Small craft should exercise caution. Forecast still favors the lower of the wave models due to the offshore flow with seas building slightly up to 5 ft well offshore. Thu-Fri...Offshore flow trajectory Thu-Thu Night will limit effects on seas with seas around 3 ft near the coast and up to 5-6 ft well offshore. A cold front will surge across the waters on Fri, likely creating advisory conditions from N-S by afternoon. Winds and seas will also be subject to gusts from showers and a few storms. Weekend...Expect a brief lull in winds Sat, with seas allowed to temporarily decrease. Sly gradient flow will re-develop Sunday ahead of next approaching feature. Headlines for wind may be required for a portion of the waters Sunday with seas in the 4-6 foot range and winds 15 to 20 kts. .CLIMATE...Record highs will be approached the next two afternoons at some locations across east central Florida. Record Record Date High/Year Date High/Year DAB 8-April 92 1938 9-April 91 1999 LEE 8-April 91 1978 9-April 90 2015 SFB 8-April 92 2006 9-April 91 1999 MCO 8-April 93 1908 9-April 96 1908 MLB 8-April 91 2006 9-April 92 1999 VRB 8-April 91 2004 9-April 92 2018 FPR 8-April 91 1939 9-April 91 2018 NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. |
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