Marine Weather Net

Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

E
WINDS
10
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

TROPICAL
STORM
CONDITIONS
EXPECTED

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

TROPICAL
STORM
CONDITIONS
EXPECTED

THURSDAY

TROPICAL
STORM
CONDITIONS
EXPECTED

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ550 Forecast Issued: 1117 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT
Tonight...East Winds 10 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers Likely Late In The Evening. Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers After Midnight.
Wednesday... Tropical Storm Conditions Expected. Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts To Around 40 Knots Becoming East 30 To 35 Knots With Gusts To Around 55 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas To 9 Feet. A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Extremely Rough On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers And Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night... Tropical Storm Conditions Expected. East Winds 35 To 40 Knots Increasing To 40 To 45 Knots After Midnight. Gusts Up To 65 Knots. Seas 12 To 14 Feet With Occasional Seas To 19 Feet. A Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Extremely Rough On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers And Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Thursday... Tropical Storm Conditions Expected. East Winds 45 To 55 Knots Becoming Southeast 45 To 50 Knots In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 75 Knots Diminishing To 70 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 15 To 18 Feet With Occasional Seas To 24 Feet. Extremely Rough On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers And Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night... Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Southwest Winds 30 To 35 Knots With Gusts To Around 60 Knots. Seas 18 To 21 Feet With Occasional Seas To 28 Feet. Extremely Rough On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers And Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday...Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...South Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts To Around 40 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas To 9 Feet. Rough On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Sunday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
914pm EDT Tuesday September 27 2022

Marine
Issued at 829pm EDT Tuesday September 27 2022

Rainbands associated with approaching Hurricane Ian will increase in coverage and intensity tonight from south to north across the area. Tropical storm force wind gusts in squalls will be possible by daybreak. Conditions will then deteriorate tomorrow morning through the remainder of the week, with Tropical Storm conditions expected across all of the local Atlantic zones. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect.

Hydrology
Issued at 829pm EDT Tuesday September 27 2022

Significant rainfall is expected to spread across the area over the next 24 to 48 hours as Hurricane Ian moves closer to the Florida peninsula. Latest guidance suggests a range of 10-15" with isolated amounts greater than 18" occurring over northern portions of east central FL (areas north of Kissimmee/Melbourne), with southern locations receiving 6-8" with isolated totals in excess of 12". A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of east central Florida.

This amount of rainfall will cause major flooding for portions of the area, especially for locations that have already received high rainfall amounts over the past 7 days. Creeks and rivers that are already approaching bankfull will overflow, leading to substantial flooding. Urban locations and low lying areas are especially susceptible, with inundation of major roadways and flooding of structures possible.

Levels along the Saint Johns River will continue to rise, with Astor forecast to rise above Moderate Flood Stage and above Lake Harney reaching Minor Flood Stage. It is important to note that higher rainfall totals could cause more substantial rises on the river, with flooding similar to Irma in 2017 a possibility. More "flashy" basins, including the Little Wekiva River and Shingle Creek are also greatly impacted by these high rainfall totals, and could quickly rise well into Moderate Flood Stage in a short window of time.

Interests along the river should prepare for major flooding and continue to monitor the latest forecasts for Hurricane Ian.

NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-247-254-259- 264-347-447-547-647-747.

Tornado Watch until 5am EDT Wednesday for FLZ058-154-159-164- 254-259-264.

Flood Watch through late Thursday night for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Hurricane Warning for FLZ044>046-053-058-144.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

Tornado Watch until 5am EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-575.