St. Augustine to Flagler Beach, FL 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. |
| Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. |
| Monday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 6 Seconds. |
| Monday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Tuesday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 7 Seconds, Building To 4 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period 7 Seconds After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet. |
| Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 343am EDT Sunday Mar 26 2023 ...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF WAYCROSS THIS AFTERNOON... ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, Marine IRE WEATHER,Climate Near Term (Through Tonight) Issued at 340am EDT Sunday Mar 26 2023 For areas north of Waycross, scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. With dew points in the upper 60s, high temperatures in the 80s, and CAPE values 1500-2000 J/kg, some of these thunderstorms may become strong or severe. The main threats today will be strong wind gusts and hail formation. The rest of SE GA and NE FL should remain dry, as the main area of convection will be north of the forecast area where the front is settled. Partly cloudy skies and southwesterly flow will allow temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 80s, potentially reaching 90 degrees in Marion, Putnam, and Flagler counties this afternoon. With the lack of an Atlantic sea breeze, even the east coast will be able to heat up into the mid 80s. Another mild night expected, with lows only falling into the mid to upper 60s. With ample moisture from the front over northern Georgia, patchy fog is possible in areas with calmer winds, mostly along I-75 in north Florida. Lingering showers in Jeff Davis, Coffee, and Appling counties will clear out around midnight. .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 340am EDT Sunday Mar 26 2023 Strong to isolated severe storm potential will continue across SE GA Monday just south of a meandering surface frontal zone, while dry conditions hold firm across NE FL under the influence of a persistent ridge axis across the FL peninsula. Steep mid level lapse rates near -7 to -7.5 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer with bulk shear 35-45 kts combined with sufficient low level instability Monday afternoon to continue a hail and localized damaging wind threat in stronger storms across SE GA, roughly north of the Highway 84 corridor. Near record high temps will near 90 degree under warm and breezy SW flow with the hottest temps between Highway 301 to the Atlantic Coast. Rain chances tapper off Monday evening with the loss of instability and the downstream passage of a weak mid level short wave trough. There is some forecast model uncertainty regarding how far south the surface front nudges into Monday night, with the GFS (Global Forecast System) pressing the boundary across NE FL into Tuesday morning while consensus guidance including the NBM/ECMWF/NAM keeping the boundary across south GA. Leaned toward consensus which with the front wavering across SE GA into Tuesday ahead of a stronger mid level short wave trough and associated mid level energy (PVA), which will bring a steady increasing in convection with isolated strong storm potential and training bands of locally heavy rainfall as the boundary shifts southward across SE GA and NE FL through the day Tuesday. The front is expected to clear the local forecast area Tuesday evening, with dry conditions by midnight Tuesday night as cooler and drier northerly flow funnels across the area into Wednesday as surface high pressure builds north of the region. After near record high temps Monday, temperatures will moderate into the mid 70s across SE GA to 80s across NE FL prior to the frontal passage. Above normal lows will range in the 60s Monday night and cool into the 50s to trailing the frontal passage Tuesday night. Inland fog is possible across the Suwannee River Valley early morning morning. Long Term (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 340am EDT Sunday Mar 26 2023 Wednesday & Thu...Dry conditions under breezy ENE winds Wednesday as high pressure builds NNE of the region under near zonal flow aloft and high cirrus. High temperatures will range from near to just below normal in the low/mid 70s across across SE GA and toward the Atlantic Coast to near 80 across our FL Suwannee River Valley zones. An upper level ridge strengthens across the GOMEX as the surface ridge shifts farther offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night weakening low level NE flow to E into Thursday. Temperatures will range in the 50s Wednesday night, then warm back above climo values for most areas by Thursday under the strengthening upper level ridge. With a dominant east coast sea breeze, expect some more diurnally enhanced cumulus clouds Thursday afternoon, but mid levels remain too dry for precipitation potential. Thu night, low level flow veers more SE as the surface ridge to the north builds farther offshore of the Atlantic coast. Min temps will range generally in the 50s to low 60s. Fri & Sat...Continued dry Friday with a return to HOT conditions as high temperatures near 90 degrees inland as the upper level ridge builds directly over the area and the low level ridge builds offshore of the GA/SC Atlantic coast, with weak 1000-700 mb enabling both east/west coast sea breezes to move inland toward the thermal low Friday afternoon. A transition to SW steering flow Saturday ahead of the next approaching front, with increasing rain chances increase across SE GA into the afternoon and evening. Models are trending drier with moisture return with the next frontal system so rain chances continue only in the 20-40% range. Marine Issued at 340am EDT Sunday Mar 26 2023 Southerly flow will continue through the weekend, and remain below advisory levels. Another cold front will move southeastward across our local waters on Tuesday, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Northerly winds will strengthen by Tuesday evening in the wake of this frontal passage. Rip Currents Moderate rip current risk today for NE FL beaches, low risk at SE GA beaches. Fire Weather Issued at 340am EDT Sunday Mar 26 2023 A frontal boundary will meander across south Georgia today and Monday with waves of strong to isolated severe storms, mainly during the afternoons and early evenings. Mostly Dry conditions will continue across NE FL with near record high temperatures. The warm temperatures and breezy SW winds with gusts near 25 mph each day will create very high daytime dispersion. A front will move across the area Tuesday trailed by drier conditions midweek. The highest rainfall amounts over the next few days will focus across SE GA where 0.50" to 1.5" of rainfall is expected, with locally higher amounts. South of Interstate 10, generally less than 0.25" of rainfall is expected, with localized higher amounts possible. Climate Issued at 340am EDT Sunday Mar 26 2023 Daily high temperature records and occurrence year for official climate sites are below for Sunday 3/26 through Monday 3/27. DATE SUN 3/26 MON 3/27 JAX 90/2021 90/2020 CRG 91/2021 89/2021 GNV 93/1907 91/1949 SSI 84/1955 88/2011 AMG 89/2021 88/2021 NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. |
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