Marine Weather Net

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach, FL 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MONDAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ474 Forecast Issued: 259 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2022

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY
Today...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms This Afternoon.
Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Monday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds.
Monday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds.
Tuesday...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds.
Wednesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers.
Thursday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet.
Thursday Night...Northeast Winds Around 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
606am EST Sunday Nov 27 2022

.SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 301am EST Sunday Nov 27 2022

Monday & Monday night...Surface high pressure quickly moves into the local area from the NE GOM Monday which will furnish mild temperatures and dry weather. The surface high pressure area shifts to the northeast over the mid Atlantic region by Monday night. Zonal flow aloft on Monday gives way to a ridge building in from south Florida. As a result, westerly flow during the day becomes north-northeasterly at night. Above normal high temps (in the 70s) anticipated Monday. Drier northerly drainage flow Monday night will cool lows into the mid/upper 40s well inland across SE GA and north of I-10 to 50s toward north central FL and the coast as onshore flow develops.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Elongated surface high pressure ridge extends from southeast Canada trough the eastern seaboard with axis nudging into northern Georgia. The upper ridge extends over the eastern CONUS with long wave trough over the intermountain west. This will result in a low level ENE flow Tuesday with moderating temperatures and continued dry weather with upper level southwesterly flow. A coastal trough begins to develop offshore then morphs into a lifting warm front Tuesday night bringing coastal shower potential and a return of fog. Highs will range in the mid/upper 70s inland Tuesday to with onshore flow with warmer lows in the mid 50s/60s Tuesday night as moisture returns with the lifting warm front and flow veers SSE.

Long Term
(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 301am EST Sunday Nov 27 2022

Wed...Warm air advection further rises temps Wednesday into the upper 70s to low 80s ahead of the next approaching frontal system that is migrating from the west. Continued with a chance of showers mainly for SE GA Wednesday & Wednesday night as upper level flow remains nearly zonal aloft with little upper level forcing in place as the front settles south and east toward the coast shortly after midnight. The front pushes further east into the offshore waters by daybreak.

Thu through Sat...After the frontal passage, mid and upper level ridging will build in, keeping SE GA and NE FL dry for the remainder of the long term. On Thursday, temps will initially be a little chilly warming into the low 60s SE GA to the lower 70s north central FL. A brief, strong local nor'easter pattern is likely late Thursday night into Friday with windy onshore flow and a return of an elevated rip current risk, rough surf, potential tidal flooding, and beach erosion. Saturday, easterly flow weakens as high pressure shifts south and eastward with an axis extending across the local area into the weekend and we expect a continuation of dry conditions and a warming trend in temperatures.

Marine
Issued at 301am EST Sunday Nov 27 2022

A warm front has lifted across the waters this morning and sea fog has formed from St Augustine north and will linger across the nearshore waters until the late morning. Southerly winds will turn southwesterly and increase as a cool front approaches from the west. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected offshore today with increasing winds. Showers and isolated storms are possible along the front as it presses southeastward through the waters this afternoon and evening. Behind the front, high pressure will build north then northeast through midweek before another frontal system arrives Wednesday night or Thursday. Robust high pressure building behind the second system may lead to strong and hazardous onshore winds to end the week.

Rip Currents
Moderate risk of rip currents today will become low Monday due to a prevailing offshore flow.

NOAA Jacksonville FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 9am this morning to 7pm EST this evening for AMZ470-472.