Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Northwest Late. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming North 10 To 15 Knots In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Becoming Northeast Late. Seas Around 2 Feet. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots Late. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds Around 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 11 Feet.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds Around 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 11 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet.|
|Friday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
605pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 337pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
With the area in a post-frontal environment by Tuesday morning, the main feature of the long term will be the indirect impacts SE Texas sees from the passage of Ian far to our east. As Ian is expected to strengthen tremendously as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean Sea, the expectation here is for the pressure gradient between it and a broad area of high pressure over West Texas and New Mexico to result in strengthening northeast winds for our area. Don't expect winds to crank up dramatically, but we could see sustained winds in the 15-20 mph range with gusts around or a little above 25 mph at their peak in the middle of the week.
That northeasterly direction of winds should also be in place through much of the atmosphere, and the influx of northern, continental air is very likely to be a dry flow. The NAEFS mean precipitable water values fall below the 10th percentile for much of the week, and the Euro ensemble drops things below the third percentile. It seems very likely that we will be seeing a weak with low humidity, sunny sky, and virtually nil chances for rain. Indeed, the highest Probability of Precipitation I have between Tuesday and Sunday night anywhere in the CWA (County Warning Area) is 9 percent over the Gulf waters. The highest PoP over any land we forecast for is just 5 percent.
Of course, with plenty of sun and few clouds, one starts to wonder about the potential for heat in the week to come. And...that's a pretty fair concern. Fortunately, we do have some mitigating factors, and ultimately the impact should result in things getting a little bit cooler in the area! We will see plenty of sun, and even though we are into astronomical fall, the sun angle is still enough to get some decent heating. But, to counter that, the influx of dry air will allow for more efficient cooling at night under a mostly clear sky, allowing low temperatures to fall into the 50s and 60s, setting a low temperature floor to begin with. Also, the post-frontal air is modestly cooler, and the deformation of flow around Ian looks to keep pumping some cooler northern air into the area as 850 mb temps look to continue to slip deep into the week.
Now, cold weather fans, don't get super excited. The sun is still good at warming things and these mitigating factors are enough to offset that, but not overwhelm the sun. Temperatures will not be summer-like as they were last week, but still expect highs near and probably even a little bit warmer than normal. If you like it colder, it may be good to shift your outdoor time to the early morning, as lows around dawn should at least be near or a bit cooler than late September averages.
Issued at 337pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
Look for generally light winds driven by the seabreeze/landbreeze circulation to be the main factor tonight and early tomorrow, but a weak front will move in during the day, turning winds northeasterly and bringing the slightest of rain chances in the morning. Those northeasterly winds will prevail for the rest of the week, as the indirect influence of Tropical Storm Ian comes to be the main driver of the forecast.
Expect winds and seas to increase, particularly in the mid to late week as the storm (expected to be a strong hurricane) passes by well to our east, but near enough to tighten the pressure gradient. Ensemble data suggests surface winds around the 90th percentile, and it seems likely that caution flags and/or small craft advisories will be needed for portions of this time frame as well.
At the beaches, we should expect some breezier conditions, and given the northeasterly flow, we should also anticipate higher tide levels and rip current risk. It's not likely to be as enhanced as if the winds were to have more of an easterly wind, but the physics of a northeast wind along the coast should increase beach hazards above typical levels.
NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories