Marine Weather Net

Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


15 - 20


15 - 20


10 - 15


The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ370 Forecast Issued: 1136 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023

Rest Of Today...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. A Chance Of Showers Late This Morning. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms This Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early.
Tonight...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.
Saturday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Saturday Night...Winds Becoming Northwest Near 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots Late In The Evening, Then Becoming North Around 30 Knots With Gusts Up To 45 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet, Building To 7 To 10 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 13 Feet After Midnight. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Evening.
Sunday...North Winds Around 30 Knots With Gusts Up To 45 Knots, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 9 To 12 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 15 Feet, Subsiding To 7 To 10 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 13 Feet In The Afternoon.
Sunday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To Around 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Feet After Midnight.
Monday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Tuesday...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots, Becoming East 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.
Tuesday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
211pm CST Fri Dec 8 2023

.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 144pm CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Weak disturbances aloft coupled with deep LL moisture advection have resulted in scattered showers and even an isolated rumble of thunder here and there today. Activity on radar is showing signs of waning as 850MB WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) enhances the cap aloft. This will come into play tomorrow for our thunderstorm threat. Tonight is expected to be a mild and muggy night with lows struggling to drop below 70 degrees. Winds should also decrease as we head into the evening hours.

The much anticipated cold front arrives tomorrow afternoon, bringing with it a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. Shear and some instability parameters point to the possibility of a few strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the aforementioned cap aided by WAA around 850MB will act as a suppressive force against our updrafts. IF we can achieve more sunshine than expected then MAYBE we can mix the atmosphere enough to overcome the cap. IF severe thunderstorms were to occur, the primary concern would be damaging wind gusts. Most locations will not receive a strong to severe thunderstorms. Considering the strong cap, the atmosphere may be hard pressed to produce any thunderstorms. However, given the shear parameters, the radar will still warrant a close eye tomorrow afternoon. Temps in the 70s with muggy conditions are expected ahead of the front. Winds increase from the northwest behind the front as Cold Air Advection takes hold. Most of the CWA (County Warning Area) is expected to drop into the 40s Sunday night. So get that ugly holiday sweater ready!


Long Term
(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 144pm CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Come Sunday morning, we will be firmly in a post-frontal environment, and enjoying (or not, depending on your happiness about cooler weather) temperatures a good 20-25 degrees colder than 24 hours previous on Saturday morning. Winds also look to be pretty gusty at the outset of the day - a gale watch is in effect for the Gulf waters, and we may need a wind advisory for the islands and potentially even coastal portions of the mainland if we really see strong, northwesterly winds materialize in the wake of the front.

Those winds will gradually come down through the day Sunday, but cold advection will continue, keeping highs in the 50s rather than the 70s we're expecting for Saturday on the warm side of the front. Though chilly, we should see a pretty good amount of sun. And while early December sun is pretty close to min power for the year, it should at least make for a nice, chilly day and not a dreary chilly day!

High pressure settles in Sunday night, and yup, we're getting together the ol' radiational cooling gang for that one. Clear sky, dry air, light winds...expect this one to get chilly. Hey, at least we don't have fresh snowpack to really boost the overnight free-fall in temperatures! NBM numbers actually do seem pretty reasonable. Already undercutting globals like the GFS (Global Forecast System) and Euro, which are probably missing the coldest part of a shallow cold pool. However, I'm not really ready to buy into a super cold solution like the Canadian. I did mix in a bit of the 25th percentile NBM to slide my result down the probability curve a little bit for Sunday and Monday night. This normally wouldn't be a huge deal, but with forecast lows potentially right around freezing for a good chunk of the area, I want to try to get on the right side of that line for as many folks as I can.

The high slips east of our area Monday, which will turn winds more easterly and at least shut off the cold air tap. Monday night into Tuesday, a weak upper trough and an associated surface low zip through Ontario. What does this have to do with us in Texas? Well, nothing directly. But another Canadian high will drop through the Great Plains and into the eastern half of the US, reinforcing the high pressure already set up there. This will keep generally easterly flow in place for the rest of the week. At least some of that time will be a little more south of due east, and will help filter back in some warmer, more humid air and send temperatures on an upward trend into the midweek. Things won't get crazy, but we'll surely see highs get back into the 60s to around 70 and humidity keeping overnight lows up as well. Beyond that, there's a bit more uncertainty. While the synoptic picture doesn't change significantly, moisture looks to build enough for more clouds going into the back half of the week, which will certainly arrest any warming trend, and may even shave a couple degrees off daytime highs (the clouds will probably act to keep overnight lows a bit warmer though, as well).

Finally, late Thursday into Thursday night, some low Probability of Precipitation look to creep into the picture as we get ready for the arrival of our next front.

Issued at 144pm CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Moderate onshore flow and somewhat elevated seas will prevail in the waters 20 to 60 NM through today into Saturday. Caution flags are up for those waters and winds are very near the small craft threshold this afternoon. Depending on the timing of Saturday's cold front, we may have a very brief window for a bit of fog Saturday evening. This would only occur if the front is late, giving us time after sunset with light winds and humid air over cooler waters.

The cold front will push off the coast Saturday evening with strong northwest and north winds in its wake. Winds around gale force are likely into Sunday morning before gradually diminishing. Low water levels are also anticipated in the bays on Sunday. High pressure moves off to the east on Monday and a long fetch of moderate east and southeast winds will then set up across the Gulf for much of next week. This fetch is frequently one that supports sea fog, but we'll first have to erase the dry air in place. With the expected trend for increasing humidity, any fog would hold off until late next week, and would likely be patchy and not terribly dense. However, this may be something to watch as we push into next week.

NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6pm CST this evening for GMZ370-375.