Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Near 20 Knots. Seas 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late. Some Thunderstorms May Produce Heavy Rainfall Late.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Some Thunderstorms May Produce Heavy Rainfall In The Morning And Gusty Winds.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Thursday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Friday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
Synopsis for High Island to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 60 nautical miles including Galveston and Matagorda Bays - GMZ300|
348 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020
Moderate onshore winds and elevated seas will continue through Memorial Day and then gradually lessen on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through Thursday. A disturbance may move into the region early Monday morning bringing strong gusty winds.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343pm CDT Sunday May 24 2020
.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday Afternoon]... Active radar this afternoon with heavy rainfalls over the corridor from north of Lake Somerville through southern Brazos with a bullseye of 4+" in Grimes county then continuing east into Montgomery and Trinity counties. Amounts of 1-3 inches were common in this corridor. Gusty winds as well were showing up during the early afternoon hours with the stronger storms. Possibly some minor tree damage in Brazos county. The main issue is the rainfall and expecting more rain in the areas to the south of the previous corridor the remainder of the afternoon then should see storms dissipate or weaken considerably with the loss of heating early this evening.
After midnight will be watching for the remains of the line of storms that develops this evening over the Hill Country/Northern Mexico to move eastward rotating around the south side of the upper low. These showers and thunderstorms should approach the western counties around midnight and more probably after midnight gradually weakening as the move east into SETX. After 4 am though some of the CAMs showing an interesting looking line of storms coming in off the Gulf across the Galveston Bay area and the wind profile there might support waterspouts. Threat for heavy rainfall starts increasing Monday after 8 am and with another fairly easily reached convective temperature should see scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop over the area during peak heating with a delay in the onset verses today's ignition time thanks to getting worked over early in the morning. Mesoscale features will be the things to monitor closely as these could change the forecast significantly. Global models are more generous with rain chances in the afternoon over the area and have gone a little below the NBM for now to give some wiggle room for the CAMs predictions. 45
Long Term - Monday Night Through Sunday
The upper level trough digs down and closes off over northern Texas Tuesday night, and this system will meander over Texas through the rest of the forecast period. There is a blocking high pressure downstream over the Eastern Seaboard, and then another blocking high upstream over the Four Corners region, so there just is no place for the low pressure over Texas to go. A series of shortwaves will round the outside of the closed low that pass through SE Texas bringing increased showers and thunderstorms as they do. The first one will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then a brief lull late Wednesday before another shortwave brings more rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.
The question becomes exactly where in Texas the low pressure ends up meandering over towards the end of the week, and there has not been the best model consistency (neither run-to-run nor between models) in its location. Latest suite of guidance has the closed low slowly sliding into E TX and into Arkansas Thursday night. This would bring drier air into our area. However, if the high pressure to the east nudges a bit further west or strengthens, then that low pressure slides west bringing wetter weather for us. This low pressure may still be meandering in or near Texas over the weekend continuing the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
Continued onshore flow with elevated seas of 4-5 feet through Monday night then should see lighter winds and lowering of seas. Overnight could have a line of storms that moves east through the coastal waters bringing strong gusty winds from the west. Monday afternoon through Wednesday a diurnal pattern of showers will likely develop with greater coverage in the mornings and diminishing in the afternoon. 45.
NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Monday morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.