Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...East Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots Late. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Until Late Afternoon, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 5 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 5 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 5 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Monday Night...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 5 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Tuesday...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To Around 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. |
| Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1114pm CDT Fri April 10 2026 ...NewARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid Saturday with scattered showers/storms expected. - Better chance of showers and storms on Sunday. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and localized flooding. Best chance of heavy thunderstorms is in our western and northern counties. - Strong rip currents expected along Gulf-facing beaches through the weekend. - Increasingly summer-like weather by the second half of next week. Issued at 1106pm CDT Fri April 10 2026 Deep LL onshore flow is pushing a warm, moisture rich air mass into our region from the Gulf. We have this moisture to thank (at least in part) for Friday's showers and thunderstorms. Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis shows a Gulf surge of 1.5 to 1.7 inch PWAT (Precipitable Water) values, meaning that Saturday's atmosphere will be just as moisture rich as Friday's. However, the southeast Texas atmosphere should experience less synoptic ascent on Saturday, suggesting less widespread shower / thunderstorm activity. Even so, we still expect scattered activity Saturday morning and afternoon, especially across our western zones where the highest PWAT (Precipitable Water) values are expected. It is important to remember that even isolated showers/storms can result in locally heavy rainfall when the atmosphere is rich in PWAT. As for temperatures, expect highs once again the low 80s for most locations. Synoptic forcing will be more robust on Sunday due to the approach of a ML shortwave from Mexico. This should result in higher rain and thunderstorm chances across our region, particularly in our northern and western counties. HREF members are more unstable on Sunday, showing a decent shot of 1000+ j/kg CAPE for most of the CWA, with some potential for over 2000 j/kg in our northwestern zones. We also expect an enhanced LL jet as the shortwave induced LL pressure falls over central and west Texas. The jet will be strongest over central and north Texas, with peak shear occurring in the morning. This technically places the best shear environment to our north and west, and before peak daytime heating / instability. But even so, I think there will be some shear to work with Sunday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our western counties in a Level 1 of 5 threat of severe thunderstorms on Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary concerns. In addition, locally heavy rainfall could result in localized flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has placed our northern zones in a Level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall. The northwesternmost corner of our CWA (County Warning Area) (near College Station) is under a Level 2 of 4 risk. As we head into next week, the pattern is expected to be dominated by a strong mid/upper ridge over the Gulf, and a surface high near SE CONUS. This pattern supports a humid and increasingly warm weather regime as the week progresses. Most inland areas are expected to be in the mid/upper 80s by Wednesday. By the end of the week, many spots could be approaching 90. Considering afternoon dew points are expected to be near 70 degrees across the region, the late week air mass may feel more summer-like than spring-like. Tis a reminder that summer approaches. Self Marine Issued at 1106pm CDT Fri April 10 2026 An enhance east to southeast 15-20 knot (occasionally higher) wind fetch will continue across the northern Gulf through at least the middle of next week. This will result in periods of enhanced waves and swell, along with elevated water levels during high tide. Water levels are forecast to peak near 3.0 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) over the next few days, which may inundate the lowest most vulnerable coastal spots. But for now, our forecast keeps water levels below Coastal Flood Advisory thresholds. Afternoon winds could gust over 25 knots, especially in upper bays. Seas are forecast to average in the 4-6 foot range over the Gulf. But we cannot rule out occasionally higher seas, especially more than 20 NM offshore. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. We are monitoring a risk of a few heavier thunderstorms on Sunday. As of now, the highest risk of heavy thunderstorms is well north of the coast. But something worth monitoring. NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1am CDT Saturday for GMZ350-355-370-375. |
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