Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northwest Winds 25 To 30 Knots With Gusts To Around 45 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet.|
|Thursday...Northwest Winds Around 30 Knots Becoming 25 To 35 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 11 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 25 To 35 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 11 Feet.|
|Friday...Northwest Winds 25 To 30 Knots Decreasing To 20 To 25 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
| Synopsis for High Island to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 60 nautical miles including Galveston and Matagorda Bays - GMZ300|
331 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021
A cold front carrying a line of strong storms has pushed through the coastal waters this afternoon. Behind the front, winds are quickly becoming westerly to northwesterly. These winds will strengthen to high end Advisory criteria this evening, with frequent gusts to the Gale threshold emerging late tonight. Sustained north winds to Gale with frequent gusts to around 45 knots are expected into Thursday night. Winds and seas will stay elevated through Friday night, so either a small craft advisory will be needed after that, or possibly the Gale warning may need to be extended into Friday. Expect low water advisories for bays and ship channels on Thursday and Friday as well.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630pm CDT Wednesday Oct 27 2021
ssued 344pm CDT Wednesday Oct 27 2021/...
In the wake of this morning's line of strong to severe thunderstorms and stout cold front, the main weather story for the next couple of days will be breezy north winds. This will usher in colder and drier air, but also pose a threat to unsecured, light items...like your favorite Halloween decorations. Take some time today to make sure everything is held down. A wind advisory has been issued across Southeast Texas tomorrow for the period of gustiest winds. Also, though conditions are not critical enough to need a red flag warning, it would be wise to be careful with open flame, especially near light, grassy areas, which can dry out in a matter of hours in gusty winds and low humidity.
Meanwhile, over the waters, the surge of northerlies has prompted the upgrade of the Gale Watch that had been in place to a Gale Warning. With frequent gusts to or above the gale threshold expected to develop late tonight, the start time of the warning has also been brought up six hours earlier.
As the winds settle down, there is not much more expected in the way of consequential weather. Enjoy this upcoming stretch of fair weather, with plenty of sun, low humidity, and relatively seasonable temperatures.
.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]... This morning's surface cold front has departed well to the east, with satellite imagery indicating a rapid clearing across the area over the last several hours. The synoptic pressure gradient remains strong as surface high pressure begins to move into the region with a deepening surface low to our northeast and broad surface high pressure over the West Central CONUS. As a result, expect moderate to strong northwest winds to persist over the next 48 hours with wind speeds increasing to 25-35 mph. A Wind Advisory will be in effect between 7AM and 7PM tomorrow across SE TX with wind gusts potentially reaching upwards of 40 mph.
Strong Cold Air Advection as a result of the elevated winds will allow for a relatively quick entrance of cool and dry air to the region this evening. Surface dewpoints have already dropped into the 50s across much of the area this afternoon, and values are expected to drop further into the 30s and 40s tomorrow. With the aforementioned Cold Air Advection and clear skies promoting efficient radiative cooling, low temperatures overnight will plummet into the 50s in most locations.
Thursday is shaping up to be quite pleasant, albeit a bit breezy. Clear skies continue with high temperatures expected to remain confined to the mid 70s. Persistent Cold Air Advection and continued clear conditions will allow for overnight lows to settle into the lower 50s, potentially into the upper 40s across some areas north of I-10.
Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
Not much to say about the long term. We will be on the back side of an upper trough Wednesday morning, and the deep northerly flow will likely help keep temperatures in the lower half of the 70s, and perhaps even the upper 60s towards the Pineywoods. Look for weather to be fair and dry, keeping afternoon RH low yet another day. Winds on Friday will likely be a bit breezy, but not as strong as Thursday as the strong northerly flow into the base of the trough comes to an end over the area.
After that, look for zonal flow or weak upper ridging to prevail over the region. Low level flow will gradually shift back to being more onshore late in the weekend, helping to start a very gradual (and likely small) warming trend, and a boost to humidity levels. We should see temperatures pass through seasonal averages to a little bit above those averages early next week, and there's not much to say beyond that. For as subtle as it is, there's pretty good consensus in guidance for a weak shortwave Sunday night/Monday. That might bring us a modest increase in clouds, but not likely much more than that.
For a change from warm, fair weather, we have to look to the middle of next week. Though deterministic models do it in different manners, there's still consensus in some sort of more significant trough digging into the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. It also may drive a cold front near or through the area. Since the specifics are fairly divergent, there's probably not a ton of value into speculating quite this deeply into it. For now, it should suffice to say that this shift from zonal flow/weak ridging will give us our next notable increase in rain chances after several days with nil or functionally nil PoPs.
A cold front carrying a line of strong storms has pushed through the coastal waters this afternoon. Behind the front, winds are quickly becoming westerly to northwesterly. With strong offshore flow setting up on the backside of this frontal setup, winds are becoming gusty over Southeast Texas, and this should soon spread to the bays and coastal Gulf waters. Look for winds to strengthen to high end Advisory criteria this evening, with frequent gusts to the Gale threshold emerging late tonight. Sustained north winds to Gale with frequent gusts to around 45 knots are expected into Thursday night.
With this channel of strong offshore flow staying somewhat persistent through Thursday and potentially even part of Friday, winds and seas will stay elevated through Friday night. Either a small craft advisory will be needed after the current end time for the Gale warning, or possibly the Gale warning may need to be extended into Friday. These winds will also drive down water levels in the bays. Expect low water advisories for bays and ship channels on Thursday and Friday.
With strong northwest winds behind this morning's cold front and a rapid entrance of drier air into the area over the next 24 hours, elevated fire weather conditions are expected. Wind speeds will reach 25 to 35 mph across much of the area during the day tomorrow, while minimum RH values will reach the 20s and 30s. Winds will gradually taper off heading into the weekend, but conditions will remain relatively dry.
NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...Wind Advisory from 7am to 7pm CDT Thursday for the following zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
High Rip Current Risk until 8pm CDT this evening for the following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1am CDT Thursday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
Gale Warning from 1am Thursday to 5am CDT Friday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM..