High Island to Freeport, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Building To 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet After Midnight. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. |
| Friday Night...Southeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds Around 30 Knots With Gusts Up To 40 Knots. Seas 7 To 10 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 13 Feet, Building To 9 To 10 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 13 Feet In The Afternoon. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Gusts To 35 Knots In The Evening. Seas 8 To 10 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 13 Feet. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 7 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 11 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1144pm CDT Wednesday April 24 2024 Long Term (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 406pm CDT Wednesday April 24 2024 ♬ Humidity's created a monster, the atmosphere don't want seasonable no more, it's summer, spring's chopped liver ♬ Hopefully y'all have taken advantage of our stretch of fair weather and temperatures that have been warm, but not too hot...because the long term portion of the forecast will give us a bit of change on both fronts at one point or another this weekend into the first half of next week. We'll start by shifting things up to a bit more of an unsettled pattern. Come Friday morning, the subtle ridging that's been in place over the region will be amplifying, but it will also have moved off to the east. Both of these will be in response to the arrival of a stout upper trough dropping off the Colorado Rockies. Of course, this will induce lee cyclogenesis over the Central Plains, and guidance continues to indicate a pretty strong surface low. In turn, this induces increased southerly low level winds feeding rich, Gulf air into Texas. And...you might think I'm setting things up to talk about a severe thunderstorm setup. While that's definitely true for somewhere (north of here), it's not really a driving concern in our area. While we'll have warm, moisture rich boundary layer air moving in, it will be happening under southwest flow just aloft - which should largely cap us off, moving the primary focus for severe weather up to the dryline/cold front. Now, with the front making its way to the region, we are not completely devoid of a severe threat. Those folks way up in our northwest (the Caldwell, B/CS, Madisonville, Crockett types) will need to be aware of just how far the front can push before stalling out, or how far ahead of the front the threat can ride on outflow boundaries, and the storm/severe threat is not zero. But with both the surface low and upper trough already so far north and ejecting to the Great Lakes, that will cause the front to stall out short of our area. Saturday, we take our next crack at things as the next upper trough makes its way in. Though this trough looks to dig a little deeper, it doesn't look quite as potent, the surface low looks weaker, and is probably a bit slower. Again, this should keep us capped off and focus the severe threat to the north in Oklahoma and North Texas. Our northern spots may again be keeping an eye out to the north for some residual nighttime action, but with the focusing mechanism even further to the northwest, odds should be even lower, putting Saturday as the fairer day of the weekend. It should also be noticeably hotter, with highs in the upper half of the 80s. As the upper trough continues to push its way through the Plains Sunday into Monday, we'll finally see a better chance of rain and storms in the area. Without much change in the broader environment, the best severe potential again is likely to mostly be north of the area. But, as initiation will be closer to the area, there'll be a marginally better shot at a stronger storm or two. There is a chance we could see some briefly heavy rain in the stronger stuff, as both NAEFS and EPS indicate that we'll have meridional flow above the 90th percentile, which also coincides with some stout moisture transport into/through the area. Though that upper trough will be exiting, another shortwave trough looks to ride its coattails across North Texas, helping keep the fun going through Monday, and perhaps even into Tuesday with more on/off rounds of showers and storms. Towards mid-week, we'll finally start to see some ridging aloft try to build in, which will give us a shot at some fairer weather. However, it's worth noting that deterministic guidance several more shortwaves in the pattern, so we may not see the tap turn entirely off. Something to pay attention to in the coming days. Marine Issued at 406pm CDT Wednesday April 24 2024 Moderate onshore flow and fairly low seas will continue through Thursday morning. Winds and seas will be on an upward climb late Thursday and into the weekend as a long fetch of moderate to strong southeast winds set up across the Gulf. Small Craft Advisories are likely Friday into Saturday night. At the coast, the persistent onshore winds will help to push water levels up, so going into the weekend as those winds strengthen, we may need to keep an eye on how high above astronomical tides those water levels will push. Additionally, the stronger winds should increase the threat for rip currents going into the weekend. Hydrology Issued at 406pm CDT Wednesday April 24 2024 Minor river flooding continues along portions of the Trinity River due to runoff from previous rounds of rainfall. The Trinity River at Liberty (LBYT2) remains in minor flood stage, but is on a downward trend and is forecast to fall out of flood stage as early as late this afternoon/early this evening. The Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) is still on an upward trend in minor flood stage and is forecast to reach its crest on Thursday afternoon. This site is forecast to remain in minor flood stage until further notice. The Trinity River at Riverside (RVRT2) will remain in action stage going into the weekend. You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink: water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...None. GM...None. |
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