Marine Weather Net

High Island to Freeport, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ375 Forecast Issued: 921 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
Rest Of Today...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.
Tonight...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers Until Late Afternoon, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely Late In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.
Friday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet Subsiding To 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.
Saturday...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Saturday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Sunday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.
Sunday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Late Evening And Overnight.
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Synopsis for High Island to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 60 nautical miles including Galveston and Matagorda Bays - GMZ300
921 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020

High pressure building into the state will maintain the moderate to strong offshore flow through the morning with gradual weakening through tonight. Another storm system will move over the region with east and northeasterly winds Thursday into Friday morning.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
926am CST Wednesday Jan 29 2020

Made some tweaks to T grids as clearing over the SW zones should allow for more of a warm up in that area and cooled temps a bit to the N-NE as cloud cover will linger in this area a bit longer this afternoon. Also slowed the clearing a bit from the SW based on latest ConShort guidance and vis satellite imagery. Marine forecast looked on track and no changes were made to current advisories. 43

SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow Night]... Quite a bit of wrap-around clouds working down across most of the CWA this morning, but not picking up much by way of precipitation at this time. All of this should be exiting to the east late this morning/early afternoon. With strong northerly winds in place and the lingering clouds, it should be a cool start to the day. Highs this afternoon should range from the mid and upper 50s north then around 60 south. Cool and quiet tonight with the upper ridge set- ting up very briefly over the region. Lows tonight should fall to the lower and mid 40s inland...around 50 at the coast.

As the upper ridge scoots off to the east, the weather pattern is expected to come under the influence of the deepening trough out to the west. The increasingly SW flow aloft will be drawing a series of disturbances across the area by Thurs. While moisture could be limited initially, low POPs will be slowly increasing from the SW through the day Thurs. Rain chances will likely peak Thurs night/ early Fri morning with the passage of a strong embedded shortwave in the southern stream jet. The forecast track of this system puts the highest POPs over the Gulf waters and our coastal counties at this time. We'll also see another shot of cold/dry air behind the shortwave as an associated cold front sweeps down from the South- ern Plains. 41

Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
Friday should start off colder/drier, but we may not see a lot of the clouds clearing as the upper pattern remains unsettled. While the one strong shortwave exits to the east, models appear to keep the bulk of the energy/axis of the main longwave trough out west at/ near the northern Baja Peninsula. Around this same time, we could see another strong shortwave moving down along the northern Rocky Mountains, resulting in the semi-classic Double Bubble of Trouble in the Trof Aloft scenario. As this more northern shortwave makes its way down into the Southern Plains, the closed Baja low should retreat a bit more to the SW. The first shortwave should move ac- ross the state on Sat, with the Baja low finally trekking through Sunday night/Mon. So what does all this mean for SE TX for the week- end? Continued high clouds, warmer temperatures (as low/mid level SW flow strengthens) with rain chances returning by Sunday night/Mon. Thereafter, next cold front is currently forecast for Tuesday night. 41

Marine Discussion
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) extended for the 20-60nm waters to 4 pm and remains through 9 am for the nearshore and Matagorda bay areas. The strong 10 am Cold Air Advection wrapping around the upper low should wane this afternoon and give the winds and chance to relax. Northeasterly flow takes shape tonight-Thursday until a warm front tucks up into the far coastal waters Thursday night/Friday. The far coastal waters could become very active with showers and thunderstorms during the fronts presence. Easterly component should help to push up tides and likely rip currents. The front gets a kick as a reinforcing cold pushes through Friday and weak high pressure briefly settles in. Then it slides southeastward and develops light south and southwesterly flow for the weekend. 45

AVIATION... Wrap around cloud deck expanding southeastward to the coast this morning should gradually erode from the west mid morning likely clearing the CXO/IAH/HOU terminals mid afternoon. This will probably be short lived as moisture trapped beneath the strengthening inversion starts moving back in from the northeast tonight/early Thursday. MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) decks of 2000-3000 should be the main concern. Gusty northwesterly winds today across the terminals...possibly near 25 knots in the LBX/BYY area but these gusty winds should relax this afternoon as Cold Air Advection wanes. 45

NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4pm CST this afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM... Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 4pm CST this afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.