High Island to Freeport, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog This Morning. |
| Tonight...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 7 Seconds And South 2 Feet At 4 Seconds. |
| Saturday...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Saturday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Sunday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: South 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Sunday Night...South Winds Around 15 Knots, Becoming Southwest 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Building To 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet After Midnight. Wave Detail: South 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Monday...North Winds Around 30 Knots. Seas 7 To 10 Feet, Occasionally To 13 Feet, Building To 9 To 12 Feet, Occasionally To 15 Feet In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Monday Night...North Winds Around 30 Knots. Seas 8 To 11 Feet, Occasionally To 14 Feet, Subsiding To 7 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet After Midnight. |
| Tuesday...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Diminishing To Around 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet, Subsiding To 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 426am CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Issued at 1133pm CST Thu Dec 25 2025 The weather this Christmas evening is basically the same, but a little different, but really the same. We didn't manage any record highs today...but probably more because the records today were a bit stronger, as we are still far, far above your typical late December temperatures in Southeast Texas. And tonight, we have yet another foggy night, focused on the coastal bays and waters. But, in a bit of a change, dense fog does not appear to be as widespread as the previous umpteen nights, instead concentrating more in dense patches around the waters, with more broad areas of less dense fog, and even more low stratus farther inland. All of this is to say that while things are largely still the same as they've been for the last several days, we are at least starting to see the first small changes that signal a change on the horizon when a much-awaited cold front arrives late Sunday. But...until then...we're gonna keep on keeping on in the current frame of unseasonable warmth and overnight fog. Indeed, as we get into the weekend, we may see temps nudge up very slightly, with a few more folks getting into the 80 degree game. Sunday may be particularly interesting, as high temps will (either directly or indirectly) be influenced by the approaching front. Earlier, my puzzling had been whether the front would arrive early enough to chop down temps before the usual diurnal peak or not. Confidence in the timing is probably high enough now that Sunday looks like it will be safely another warm day in the streak. Now, we get into some more nuanced puzzling - when a strong front arrives, sometimes the hottest afternoon will be just before the front arrives. With a combination of typically warmer southwest flow but also a front near enough to induce some compressional heating along/ahead of the front, we can really juice up the temps before they take a dive. But...if the front comes too late, we'll miss out on that double effect, and end up with a day similar to the days leading up to it, or a bit cooler if there's significant cloud cover. So, which do we get on Sunday? Given recent model trends, it does look like frontal timing is slipping even a bit more, becoming more of a Sunday night/early Monday morning thing instead of Sunday evening. Because of this, I keep temperatures pretty similar to Saturday...and Friday...just a touch warmer than today. This does assume that we scatter out the morning fog/stratus enough. Buuuuuut, if you're interested, I checked out the NBM 75th percentile numbers just to explore a "what if" for a slightly faster front that gives us that extra boost. That scenario has widespread highs in the 80s, with the hottest part of the coastal plain making it up into the middle 80s! That's obviously a lower probability scenario (implied to be about 25 percent, though I will always note that NBM reality is not true reality, so they're not *perfectly* interchangeable), but it is certainly a plausible one if the timing works out that way. But, at some point Sunday night, the front will move through. I did hedge above the deterministic NBM for Probability of Precipitation Sunday night, given the moisture available and the strength of the front moving through. However, we're still on roughly the same page as far as the character of any rain - mostly scattered showers, a stray thunderstorm embedded in there amongst it. Despite moisture and a focusing mechanism, the upper trough still doesn't look strong enough to dig any more than the Central Plains against the strong ridging we've had in place. After some lingering slight chance PoPs for trailing showers on Monday, we dry things out with a much colder and drier airmass. How much colder? Well, if you're a cold miser, you'll want to look at the relative change. Highs Monday and Tuesday should be about 30 degrees lower than they're forecast to be on Sunday! And if you're really into freezing temps, then get yourself north of the Houston metro (maybe even the northernmost fringes of the metro!) as we'll be looking for a night or two in the 28-32 degree range up there. It should be pretty chilly all the way to the coast, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. I will note that if there's any room to move with this forecast, it will probably be in the downward direction. We're still 5-6 days out, and global models are notorious in this area for not being able to quite capture the intensity of the shallowest layer of post-frontal cold, likely due to vertical resolution issues. And despite this, and despite the deterministic numbers, NBM probabilities for sub-freezing mins even coastward of I-10 in the rural areas southwest of the Houston metro are near or a little above 50 percent! I've already hedged by diving under the deterministic NBM here, but there's a chance it may not be enough. And if we do any future adjusting from here on out, I'd expect it to be downwards. To explore a scenario that is low probability, but still wouldn't be terribly surprising to see, Tuesday night lows in the NBM's 25th percentile bring lows of 31-32 almost to the Gulf beaches. Now...given the strength of the ridging and heat we've had in place, I'm not convinced we're going to get *that* cold, but it's enough to make me nudge things more that way than the NBM seems willing to go. For Wednesday onward, things get a little less exciting. Zonal flow, or even some weak ridging sets up aloft, which gives us an expectation for fair weather and probably a slow warmup deep into the week. We'll be on the lookout to see how a decent shortwave trough plays into things towards the end of next week as it would be the next chance for some showers, but anything beyond this vague description would getting pretty speculative. Marine Issued at 1133pm CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Another night of sea fog is ongoing, though a subtle change in the winds has made for a situation more patchy dense fog than previous nights' widespread banks of dense fog. This general pattern should continue through the weekend, with the highest threat of dense fog overnight and during the morning. However, this small shift may allow for longer breaks in the fog in the late mornings and afternoons. A strong cold front pushes offshore late Sunday night, bringing strong winds and building seas in its wake. The chance of gale force wind gusts continues to increase, particularly over the Gulf. At the very least, small craft advisories will be necessary with the winds after this front, and perhaps a gale watch if confidence in these winds continues to grow. NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am CST this morning for GMZ330-335- 350-355. |
Houston/Galveston TX Radar
Gulf Radar