Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel, TX Marine Forecast
|Today...Northwest Winds 25 To 30 Knots Becoming 25 To 35 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Tonight...Northwest Winds 25 To 35 Knots Becoming 25 To 30 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Friday...Northwest Winds 20 To 30 Knots Becoming 20 To 25 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Sunday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 Feet.|
| Synopsis for High Island to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 60 nautical miles including Galveston and Matagorda Bays - GMZ300|
330 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021
Gale warning in effect for bays and Gulf waters through early Friday morning. Winds and seas will continue to build throughout the day and peak late tonight. Afterwards, winds will stay near advisory strength until Friday night. Seas will be slower to subside. Low water advisories still possible as early as tonight during low tide for our bays and ship channels.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626am CDT Thu Oct 28 2021
ssued 348am CDT Thu Oct 28 2021/... .SHORT TERM... It's National Chocolate Day and it'll be the perfect morning to celebrate with a cup of hot cocoa (or in my case a slice of chocolate cake: the breakfast of champions) as out-the-door temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across most of Southeast Texas, except along the coast where low 60s are expected. With a surface low to our northeast and surface high pressure moving down from the Four Corners region, the pressure gradient over the area will be fairly tight. The 00z suite of models are all in agreement on a LLJ developing later this morning on the western side of the low with 45-55 knot winds at 850mb. With lapse rates up to 2km at essentially the DALR and unidirectional flow aloft, there's high confidence in strong wind gusts reaching the surface. It'll be a hang on to your hat kind of day with northwesterly winds sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Consequently, a Wind Advisory is in effect for today from 7AM to 7PM for Southeast Texas.
Strong winds are indicative of efficient mixing, so I went a tick above guidance for this afternoon's highs to reflect temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Winds hold steady overnight on Thursday, so we'll only see temperatures drop down into the upper 40s/low 50s. Winds aloft on Friday will decrease with the loss of the LLJ, but still suitable enough for gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. With the decrease in winds and persisting cold air advection, Friday's temperatures will be a bit lower with highs in the low 70s. Surface high pressure eases in by Friday night allowing for winds to become light. With clear skies continuing to prevail, the environment will be primed for max radiational cooling. As a result, we'll finally get the full experience of the cold air brought in from Wednesday's FROPA as temperatures drop like a rock on Friday night. Temperatures will range from the lower 40s up north to the upper 40s/low 50s in the Houston metro area and the mid 50s along the coast. It's late October after all...it's about time that it actually feels like it!
Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
With high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft, deep northwesterly flow will persist over our area, helping to keep our temperatures mild and dewpoints low on Saturday. Daytime highs should reach the mid-70s and clear skies will help cool overnight lows to the 50s for most areas and 40s for our northern and rural sites. By Sunday, onshore flow resumes and this helps to slowly increase temperatures and humidity again, so daytime highs will be a few degrees warmer in the upper 70s to near 80 and overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s inland and near 60 along the coast. Another shortwave will approach on Tuesday, but rain chances will remain well north of our area and the only impacts will be increased upper level cloud cover. Rain chances for our area don't return until Wednesday and Thursday when another shortwave pushes across the Southern Great Plains and drags a cold front through Texas.
In the wake of the latest cold front, strong northwesterly winds will continue.nue to increase in strength today. With sustained winds approaching 25-30 kts for our coastal waters along with frequent gusts at 35-45 kts, a Gale Warning is in effect through at least 5AM tomorrow morning. Strong offshore flow will persist through at least Friday and winds aren't expected to drop below Advisory criteria until late Friday evening. Afterwards, seas will be slower to subside and drop below 5 ft by early Saturday morning. With this persistent strong offshore flow, low water advisories are possible for our bays and ship channels as early as this evening during low tide. Tide predictions appear to hover right around the criteria for a low water advisory near Morgan's Point and Manchester in the Galveston ship channel, so be prepared should a short fuse advisory be issued later today.
Due to dry air surging in following Wednesday's cold front in combination with strong northwesterly winds with higher gusts, fire weather conditions will be elevated throughout the day. Winds will begin to increase later this morning and persist throughout the day in the range of 25-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. This will be in combination with RHs decreasing to 25%-30% in the afternoon. The pressure gradient weakens after Friday allowing for wind speeds to come down, but the dry air will remain in place through early next week. Minimum RH values in the afternoon hours throughout the weekend will be in the 25%-35% range before moisture begins to gradually increase going into early next week.
NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...Wind Advisory until 7pm CDT this evening for the following zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
GM...Gale Warning until 5am CDT Friday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.