Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel, TX Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...East Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 6 Feet.|
|Monday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Gusts To 30 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Friday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1134pm CDT Sunday May 22 2022
/ISSUED 342pm CDT Sunday May 22 2022/
SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]... It's been quite some time since we've seen below normal daytime temps...what a welcome relief! Still have some lingering cloud cover from the departing trough and also some moisture trapped below frontal inversion north of the metro area. Suspect with a bit of partial clearing, lower wind speeds and a damp/wet ground in place that we might see some patchy fog develop later tonight.
The daytime hours Monday should be fairly benign as it'll take a while to get the deeper moisture transport kicked in with the returning onshore llevel flow. Eyes turn to the west Monday night as guidance indicates what could be a fairly potent shortwave eventually tracking toward the into the area. Forecast currently has its associated shra/tstms pushing into the western portion of the CWA toward daybreak...but these things sometimes can arrive faster than what model guidance indicates. The next couple shifts will need to evaluate the potential for any severe storms...possibly in the form of strong winds. Currently Storm Prediction Center has areas to our north and west outlooked in slight risk, but am a touch concerned with locations along/south of I-10 as well should any bowing segments develop within a potential line of storms racing ewd into the region as some of the HREF members and TT WRF depict. But, there's a fair amount of uncertainty regarding timing/evolution at this point. 47
Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
The active weather pattern will continue through mid week as a series of shortwaves rounding the base of an upper level trough over the Great Plains and a cold front move through Southeast TX. To start, a stronger shortwave moving eastward from the western TX region will move overhead during the day Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the rise Tuesday morning as low level moisture rapidly surges in from the Gulf with PWs peaking at 1.7 to 2.0 inches as the shortwave begins to pass through and storms developing over South Central and Central TX track east and into Southeast TX. With one hour rates of around 2.0 inches possible, some ponding of water on roadways and low lying areas is possible. Any minor flooding potential will depend on where the heavy rain falls and how saturated the soil will be at that location. Something to look out for these next few days. In addition, forecast soundings show conditions becoming more unstable in the afternoon to evening hours with SFC-6 km shear of 30-40 kts, mid level lapse rate a little over 7 C/km, SFC/MU CAPE of 2,000-3,500 J/kg and DCAPE around 800-1,000 J/kg, which could allow for strong storms capable of producing strong gusty winds and hail. Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook has placed a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for Tuesday/Tuesday night mainly for damaging winds and hail.
Chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front moves south southeast over Central TX and pushes across Southeast TX during the day Wednesday. Strong storms just ahead and along the front is possible and may again be capable of producing strong winds, locally heavy rainfall, and hail. Rain chances will cease Wednesday night as the front moves across the coastal Gulf waters and slightly cooler/drier airmass moves in behind it. High pressure will build over the local area on Thursday, inhibiting rain chances and resulting in light variable winds through Friday morning. Winds will turn southeasterly Friday as the high departs to the east northeast and onshore flow will prevail through the upcoming weekend, gradually increasing low level moisture.
As for temperatures, the highs will be mostly in the low to mid 80s Tuesday into Thursday. Some spots along the northern counties may experience highs in the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday...very nice. Much nicer are the lows dropping into the low to mid 60s on Thursday night. Expect a gradual warming trend Friday into the upcoming weekend as the onshore flow brings back warmer air from the Gulf.
Caution flags will remain in effect for the Gulf waters through late tonight mainly for elevated seas. Winds will turn east this evening and onshore flow will return Monday as a warm front moves inland. Periods of showers and thunderstorms expected to continue through mid week as a series of upper level shortwaves and a cold front move across the region. Some storms may be capable of producing strong gusty winds along with elevated seas. Moderate onshore flow and elevated seas expected Monday night through Wednesday and Caution flags are likely to be needed. The cold front is forecast to move across the coastal waters Wednesday night, and winds will turn north northeasterly in its wake. Winds will turn east Thursday night and southeast Friday night through the upcoming weekend.
For the beachgoers, high risk of strong rip currents will continue through tonight for the Gulf facing beaches. It is recommended to practice beach safety and swim near a lifeguard.
NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...NONE. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7am CDT Monday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.