Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel, TX Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet.|
|Friday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet.|
|Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 Feet.|
|Sunday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Monday...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Tuesday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
| Synopsis for High Island to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 60 nautical miles including Galveston and Matagorda Bays - GMZ300|
1030 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020
Light winds will prevail through Friday then gradually veer to the south and strengthen. A cold front should push off the coast Monday with a moderate to strong offshore flow developing.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1131pm CDT Thu September 24 2020
SHORT TERM...[Tonight through Friday Afternoon]... The main issue is cloud cover with an extensive blanket across the region this afternoon that should persist through mid morning Friday. Winds relaxing tonight and may even become calm in a few inland locations. Eventually Friday mid morning northeasterly winds will prevail trending toward the east by late Friday afternoon. Temperatures will not have a big range with highs this afternoon in the mid to upper 70s falling slowly into the lower 60s north to near 70 on the coast. Temperatures Friday should rise into the lower to mid 80s (but if the clouds erode sooner then temperatures will need a nudge up). Rain chances remain very low but a spit or two of drizzle is possible it isn't likely.
LONG TERM [Friday Night through Wednesday]... Our fairly dry and generally benign weather pattern continues into the weekend as a broad area of surface high pressure sits over the south-central CONUS/northern Gulf of Mexico. As this high shifts slowly to the east by Saturday, look for a return to southerly winds by the evening hours. While this should result in a slight uptick in surface dew points, an overall weak pressure gradient will prevent deeper low-level moisture over the central Gulf from reaching the area. As a result, total PW values (Precipitable Water values) should remain in the vicinity of 1.0 in through the duration of the weekend. The latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) & GFS runs continue to place SE TX within the left front quadrant of a jet streak associated with a developing upper low to our west on Saturday, though the aforementioned lack of near-surface moisture should inhibit any widespread precipitation development. While an isolated shower or two isn't out of the question, was not confident enough to include any mentions of Probability of Precipitation in the forecast.
The major story of the extended period continues to be the approach of a surface cold front early next week. Model consensus over the past few runs has sped up the approach of this feature, which now looks to reach the northern counties by Monday morning, pushing through the metro area throughout the day and advancing offshore in the early evening. National blends continue to be conservative with rainfall along the front. Have increased Probability of Precipitation on Monday given the recent trend of a stronger frontal passage (850-700mb frontogenesis continues to show a strong signal in both GFS & ECMWF solutions) to around 30-40%, as convergence along the advancing boundary should be sufficient to generate scattered showers and storms.
In the wake of the front, look for a shift to moderate to strong offshore winds and noticeably cooler (dare I say, "fall-like") conditions. Lows on Monday evening should be the lowest we've seen in quite a while, with most inland areas dipping into the 50s while the coast will stay in the upper 60s. Persistent surface high pressure behind the departing front will bring an extended period of calm, cool, and dry weather to the area. Look for daytime highs in the mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s through the end of the work week.
Light winds with low seas will prevail through Sunday though swinging from north to northeast to southeast and south Friday into Saturday. A strong cold front pushes off the coast Monday morning and should bring SCEC and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Monday afternoon thanks to strong Cold Air Advection through Tuesday morning. A reinforcing cold front arrives Wednesday and should boost winds again with more persistently northeasterly flow and will be flirting with SCEC conditions (Small Craft Should Exercise Caution) Wednesday through Friday if the forecast remains on the current track. And the Tropics remain blissfully quiet.
NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories