Marine Weather Net

Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel, TX Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

N
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

FRIDAY

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRIDAY NIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SATURDAY

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ350 Forecast Issued: 342 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
Tonight...North Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
Friday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.
Friday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.
Sunday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas 1 Foot.
Sunday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Monday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.
Monday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 0 To 1 Feet.
Tuesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 0 To 1 Feet.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 0 To 1 Feet.
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Synopsis for High Island to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 60 nautical miles including Galveston and Matagorda Bays - GMZ300
342 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Strong N to NE winds and elevated seas will continue across the Gulf waters in response to a surface low pressure and a cold front resulting in SCEC/SCA conditions through at least late tonight. Winds and seas will gradually diminish going into the weekend. Another front is expected Sunday night into Monday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
355pm CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Short Term - Tonight Through Friday
A mix of rain/drizzle and overcast skies will prevail for the rest of the afternoon and evening. A surface low pressure will continue to move eastward and across the local waters this afternoon, while a cold front moves southward and into SE Texas later today. The surface low pressure has maintained modest low level moisture across SE Texas while ascent from the frontal boundary will help produce additional rain/drizzle through late evening/early night hours. As the low pressure exits the local waters and the colder/drier air mass behind the front moves across the region tonight, rain chances cease and skies gradually clear out. Across the northern regions of SE Texas, there is a chance for patchy fog development late night into early Friday morning. This is mainly due to the combination of clear skies, decreasing winds, and residual ground moisture. Upper air sounding and SREF/HiRes models are also hinting fog mainly across the aforementioned region; however, there is a chance other locations could have brief periods of patchy fog development as well. A slight decrease in temperatures will occur tonight in response to the cold air advection. Minimums are expected to range in the low to mid 30s areas north of I-10 and in the upper 30s to low 40s areas south of I-10.

On Friday, high pressure ridge will build across local area. Subsidence aloft along with the dry air mass will result in sunny skies and light northerly winds inland. Winds will be stronger along the coastal regions and Barrier Islands. High temperatures will range in the upper 50s to low 60s area wide. 24

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]... A cold, cloudy, and drizzly end to my last operational forecast shift here at the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston office. It has been an absolute honor to serve both the people and our local partners across Southeast Texas over the past three years. Thank you.

With that said, not much has changed in the guidance from the previous forecast package. Below normal temperatures are forecast to continue through the weekend, with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s Saturday and Sunday, warming into the mid 60s to low 70s by Monday. Precipitable water values (PWs) remain low, less than a quarter of an inch Saturday, with high pressure dominating the forecast. With mostly clear skies overhead, low temperatures Saturday night will drop into the mid 30s to low 50s due to ample radiative cooling.

Onshore flow returns for a short period of time Sunday, for just long enough to advect PWs back up between 0.8 to 1.0 inches. Global guidance is not as aggressive with the return of moisture as in the 12Z run yesterday, and therefore have pulled back on the slight chance for showers. An upper level trough still looks to push through the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. Therefore by early Monday morning, would expect some development of scattered showers across the Gulf waters that should continue through the afternoon hours. This is also in association with a weak surface trough that will meander over the northwestern portions of the Gulf of Mexico into early Tuesday morning. Another weak front ushers in behind the upper-level low Tuesday morning and PWs once again dry out to less than 0.5 inch. Winds turn more out of the northwest by Tuesday morning as this drier airmass ushers in. High temperatures will be back in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, rising above seasonal normals. By Thursday, the chance of rain returns to the forecast, with periods of precipitation possible through Saturday. Model solutions diverge in terms of the timing of the late week frontal passage with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) being the fastest solution by about 6 hours, followed by the Canadian and GFS which are in better agreement.

Marine
Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through late tonight, as a surface low pressure continues to move eastward across the Gulf waters and a surface cold front moves across SE Texas. Surface observations over the past few hours have been reporting winds of around 20-25 knots with higher gusts and are expected to become northerly by this afternoon. Seas have increased to near 5 feet along the nearshore waters and near 6 feet along the offshore waters. Strong winds look to hold up longer than previous forecast, thus, the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) was extended. For the nearshore waters, a SCEC will replace the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) at 8pm CST tonight, while the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) continues through 6am CST Friday. SCEC conditions (Small Craft Should Exercise Caution) will continue thereafter. Elevated winds and seas will also create moderate to high rip currents along the local beaches. Winds and seas gradually improve Friday throughout the day as high pressure ridge builds across the region. Tide levels on the bays are expected to decrease but remain above Low Water Advisory criteria.

Light north to northeast winds and seas below 3 feet are expected over the weekend. Onshore flow will return early Sunday. The next cold front is expected to move across the Gulf waters Sunday night. This will result in strong winds and elevated seas in the wake of the front Sunday night into Monday morning. 24

NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8pm CST this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 8pm CST this evening through Friday morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6am CST Friday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from Friday morning through Friday evening for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.