Matagorda Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northwest Around 10 Knots Late This Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Becoming West Late. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy, Diminishing To Smooth Late This Morning And Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth, Increasing To Slightly Choppy In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...East Winds Around 15 Knots, Becoming Northeast 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. |
| Tuesday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. |
| Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To Slightly Choppy. Showers. |
| Wednesday Night...East Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Bay Waters Smooth To Slightly Choppy, Increasing To Slightly Choppy After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 558am CST Sunday Jan 18 2026 Issued at 1214am CST Sunday Jan 18 2026 A very subtle reinforcing front has about made its way through the entire area just before midnight, and high pressure will settle over the region through the night, locking in light, variable, but mostly offshore winds for a cool, dry day Sunday. Given the continued very dry conditions that will also persist for the day, the change to light winds rather than Saturday's gusty performance will do a great deal to ease the potential for more rapid fire growth. But with RH just as low or slightly lower than Saturday and vegetation that is only getting drier, caution with (or postponing use of) anything that could cause sparks and flame will still be a good idea if it's not for a professional burn that requires very specific conditions you've pre-planned for. Look for that high pressure to drift across area Gulf waters through the night, setting us up for another chilly night, with a light freeze this time held generally north of the Houston metro. Expectations here are the high will move far enough off to the east that we'll get some light onshore flow to set up later in the night. It won't make a big difference...but between the end of cold advection, a little more mechanical mixing, and maybe even a small hint of warm advection near the coast, it can well be the difference between a cold night in the mid-30s and a night that features a light freeze. With that said, light onshore winds may bring in just enough moisture, while staying calm enough for half of the area or so closer to the coast to manage some frost development towards dawn. So, even if we don't quite reach freezing, you may want to spend another night protecting anything that's even frost-sensitive. That light onshore flow, along with plenty of sun, looks to give us a bit more warmth on Monday, and while still a dry afternoon, at least not quite as dry as the weekend. If you were only going off the past week or so, you'd think this is a sign we're headed to conditions on the warm side of average for Tuesday...and you'd be wrong. We've got yet another weak cold front set to move through Monday night...kind of a back-door front, really - there isn't a whole lot to it. But, it will chop down any warming trend, and keep conditions right around seasonal averages for Tuesday along with some northeast winds. Perhaps the more interesting thing this front does is stall out offshore, where a coastal trough develops and lifts back north for the midweek, finally bringing in decidedly more moisture and our first solid chances at rainfall in a while. I still don't expect us to be looking at anything like a drought-buster, but all rain helps given our current drought conditions, and rain chances - especially the closer you get to the coast - look quite high for Wednesday. Going back to the LREF cluster analysis tool, we can start to try to pick at potential scenarios for this mid-week rain. Compared to last night, the grand ensemble itself is wetter. The highest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is still offshore, but coastal counties look to average three- quarters of an inch or more of rain, with more the half to three- quarters inch inland towards the coastal plain and Houston metro, with a quarter-inch to half-inch well inland. Like last night, the top cluster is wetter than the grand ensemble, though it is not the wettest one. What looks to happen here is a northern stream trough is a bit stronger, and its surface reflection may be more effective at drawing our coastal trough up and surging more rain potential farther inland. It also does appear that we may be shaking out some of our dispersiveness concerns from last night. This top cluster has a smaller proportion of the total membership (29 percent of LREF members) but it does so by better dispersing the GEPS members. This top cluster now only has 50 percent of that ensemble. The GEFS, while a bit light in the top cluster, is also better dispersed than the previous night. One thing that does stand out is that all four clusters in the tool lay out at least some rainfall across the area - there are no real "dry" clusters to be found. This at least helps increase confidence in putting likely Probability of Precipitation across Southeast Texas, and less concerned that we'll get skunked and have all the rain offshore. Now, I'll probably always have concerns about the models being fully dispersive in this type of quasi-mesoscale setup and I wouldn't rule out an "all the rain offshore" scenario entirely...it's more of a paranoid fear rather than one that has a lot of supporting evidence in the guidance right now. Of course, with this coastal trough bringing in increased raininess and cloud cover, that will limit temperatures somewhat, but with the influx of a warmer, more humid airmass, we still should see a general trend of increasing temperatures through the midweek. Late this week, we should see things begin to accelerate more as the rainmaker exits the region and our LREF ensemble systems all bring 850 temps up to around the 90th percentile. With this sharp increase in low level temps, afternoon highs Friday and Saturday should make runs to around or above 70, and warm spots on the coastal plain will look to see things push towards the middle 70s. Until, of course, this quick-moving pattern just keeps on pushing, and another cold front arrives sometime late in the weekend. Rain chances with this front aren't nil, but with moisture levels being sapped from the departure of our midweek rainy airmass, I'm keeping Probability of Precipitation fairly low to start. We have some more time to see how the picture for next weekend evolves. Marine Issued at 1214am CST Sunday Jan 18 2026 Strong northeast winds and high seas continue overnight, then diminish through early Sunday morning. Onshore winds return Sunday night before becoming offshore again following yet another cold front on Monday. This front will stall out offshore, before lifting back northward and returning onshore winds Tuesday into Wednesday. Expect more widespread rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday as another weather system pushes through. While the precise location of the heaviest rains is still somewhat fuzzy, the coastal trough acting as the focus for these rains makes it more likely that at least some of the heavier rain showers should be over the Gulf waters. Low water conditions will persist in the bays Sunday, particularly on upper portions, while moderate to strong northeast winds persist. Though winds become onshore Monday, the advisory may even need to be extended through Monday's low tide cycle. Fire Weather Issued at 1214am CST Sunday Jan 18 2026 Relatively poor RH recovery (by Southeast Texas standards, anyway) to the 55-60 percent range tonight will set us up for another very dry day on Sunday. For another day, look for RH to fall into the upper teens and 20s for all but the beaches. Even there, the most "humid" part of Southeast Texas, should still expect minimum RH around 30 percent. Unlike yesterday, winds should be much lighter, only rising to around 5 mph for the large majority of the area. Winds at the coast may be slightly stronger, but still only in the 5-10 mph range. Despite a brief return to onshore flow for much of Monday, a weak reinforcing front Monday night will bring winds back to northeasterly. This will prolong the time it will take for more humid conditions to return. Those more humid conditions, and ultimately some solid rain chances, should finally arrive mid- week. NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...Freeze Warning until 8am CST this morning for TXZ235>238- 335>338. GM...Low Water Advisory until 6pm CST this evening for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until 7am CST this morning for GMZ330-335- 350-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10am CST this morning for GMZ370-375. |
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