Matagorda Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming West Late. Bay Waters Smooth. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms Early This Evening.|
|Monday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northeast In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth To Slightly Choppy. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To Slightly Choppy.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy.|
|Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy.|
|Friday Night...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To Slightly Choppy. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
338pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER
.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 337pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
With the leading edge of the deeper moisture from the W/SW nudging a bit further into SE TX today, temperatures haven't been quite as hot as previously expected this afternoon. Additionally, there does seem to be a bit more development along/ahead of the cold front/prefront- al trough just north of our CWA. But given the timing of the passage of this line here (tonight/overnight), these rain chances will lower (from 20-30% to 10-20%) before picking up once again when it finally moves into the coastal counties/waters around sunrise. Despite winds shifting to the N/NE tonight and tomorrow, the cooler air/lower dew- points won't make it into the region until tomorrow night. So, highs tomorrow afternoon will remain somewhat warm (upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations). The stronger Cold Air Advection should result in low temperat- ures in the upper 50s across our northern CWA, lower to mid 60s over the central (including HTown proper), and mid to upper 60s along the coast for tomorrow night into Tues morning. 41
(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 337pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
With the area in a post-frontal environment by Tuesday morning, the main feature of the long term will be the indirect impacts SE Texas sees from the passage of Ian far to our east. As Ian is expected to strengthen tremendously as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean Sea, the expectation here is for the pressure gradient between it and a broad area of high pressure over West Texas and New Mexico to result in strengthening northeast winds for our area. Don't expect winds to crank up dramatically, but we could see sustained winds in the 15-20 mph range with gusts around or a little above 25 mph at their peak in the middle of the week.
That northeasterly direction of winds should also be in place through much of the atmosphere, and the influx of northern, continental air is very likely to be a dry flow. The NAEFS mean precipitable water values fall below the 10th percentile for much of the week, and the Euro ensemble drops things below the third percentile. It seems very likely that we will be seeing a weak with low humidity, sunny sky, and virtually nil chances for rain. Indeed, the highest Probability of Precipitation I have between Tuesday and Sunday night anywhere in the CWA (County Warning Area) is 9 percent over the Gulf waters. The highest PoP over any land we forecast for is just 5 percent.
Of course, with plenty of sun and few clouds, one starts to wonder about the potential for heat in the week to come. And...that's a pretty fair concern. Fortunately, we do have some mitigating factors, and ultimately the impact should result in things getting a little bit cooler in the area! We will see plenty of sun, and even though we are into astronomical fall, the sun angle is still enough to get some decent heating. But, to counter that, the influx of dry air will allow for more efficient cooling at night under a mostly clear sky, allowing low temperatures to fall into the 50s and 60s, setting a low temperature floor to begin with. Also, the post-frontal air is modestly cooler, and the deformation of flow around Ian looks to keep pumping some cooler northern air into the area as 850 mb temps look to continue to slip deep into the week.
Now, cold weather fans, don't get super excited. The sun is still good at warming things and these mitigating factors are enough to offset that, but not overwhelm the sun. Temperatures will not be summer-like as they were last week, but still expect highs near and probably even a little bit warmer than normal. If you like it colder, it may be good to shift your outdoor time to the early morning, as lows around dawn should at least be near or a bit cooler than late September averages.
Issued at 337pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022
Look for generally light winds driven by the seabreeze/landbreeze circulation to be the main factor tonight and early tomorrow, but a weak front will move in during the day, turning winds northeasterly and bringing the slightest of rain chances in the morning. Those northeasterly winds will prevail for the rest of the week, as the indirect influence of Tropical Storm Ian comes to be the main driver of the forecast.
Expect winds and seas to increase, particularly in the mid to late week as the storm (expected to be a strong hurricane) passes by well to our east, but near enough to tighten the pressure gradient. Ensemble data suggests surface winds around the 90th percentile, and it seems likely that caution flags and/or small craft advisories will be needed for portions of this time frame as well.
At the beaches, we should expect some breezier conditions, and given the northeasterly flow, we should also anticipate higher tide levels and rip current risk. It's not likely to be as enhanced as if the winds were to have more of an easterly wind, but the physics of a northeast wind along the coast should increase beach hazards above typical levels.
NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories