Matagorda Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms After Midnight. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Late.|
|Sunday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. Thunderstorms Likely Until Late Afternoon. Showers Likely. Thunderstorms Likely Late In The Afternoon. Some Thunderstorms May Produce Heavy Rainfall Late In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy Becoming Smooth After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Monday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth Becoming Smooth To Slightly Choppy In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth Becoming Slightly Choppy In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy Becoming Smooth After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
446am CDT Sunday May 31 2020
Short Term - Through Monday
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a large upper-level low spinning across northern Mexico ushering in a moist southerly flow into SE Texas. A short wave moving around this upper level disturbance will help to trigger scattered strong thunderstorms across the southwestern portion of the CWA through the day today. Jackson, Matagorda, and Wharton counties high the highest chance of experiencing stronger thunderstorms from around noon through sunset as that disturbance moves through the area. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) increasing to near 2 inches will mean that the thunderstorms that do form will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall. The high pressure that has been sitting over northern Texas the past few days has retreated northwards. This will allow for higher PWATs (Precipitable Waters) to make their way northward, so isolated showers are possible this afternoon up through Harris County. A lull in the shower activity is expected after sunset this evening, but return on Monday thanks to daytime heating and continuing high PWATs. Although coverage and intensity of Monday's storms will be less than today due to less favorable upper level support.
High temperatures today and Monday will be in the mid to upper 80s north of I-10 and in the low 80s south of I-10 due to increased cloud cover. Low temperature tonight will be in the low 70s across most of the area, and in the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
Long Term - Monday Night Through Sunday
Upper ridging will dominant early June's weather pattern by providing the subsidence needed in keeping this period's areal precipitation chances low and temperatures trending above normal.
While rain chances will be low, most everyone will pick up measurable rain from Tuesday through Thursday. The mid to upper level ridge enveloping the Southern Plains will display a subtle weakness over Eastern Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico. 85H to 5H riding will focus over the southeastern U.S. with a longwave ridge axis over the Rocky Mountains. This places Texas within the relatively weaker height channel. Traditionally, within this set up, any disturbed weather forming over the Bay of Campeche gets caught up within this channel and brought northward towards the Upper Texas coastline...or gets caught within the east to southeast 7H steering flow between two aforementioned mid to upper ridges. In essence, this height weakness channel also becomes a moisture channel as higher moist air masses over the warmer southwestern Gulf are advected northward into the region.
The surface pressure gradient with high pressure generally stationed over Georgia and Florida in relation to lowering pressures (due to daily heating) over the Rocky lees and western Texas will maintain an onshore orientation through the week. This will keep PWATs (Precipitable Waters) high, in the 1.6 to near 2 inch range...these numbers fall into the 75 percentile by early June standards. Convective temperatures in the lower 90s will likely be achieved so, if lift is either provided along the local breezes or from a landfalling weak Gulf disturbance, expect at least low end Probability of Precipitation to be in place for (at least) the southern 2/3rds of the forecast area through a good part of the week.
Heat will also be a topic this coming week. Ambient temperatures not falling much overnight (only the low to mid 70s) will quickly warm into the early afternoon lower 90s within a more humid air mass with little to no mixing per weak lower level southerlies will produce "feels like" mid to late week temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Thus, be aware and take the proper precautions to avoid heat exhaustion if outside exercising or working between the hours of Noon to 4 PM.
The global deterministic models are still developing a closed off circulation from the current broad disturbance over southern Mexico and the northern countries of Central America. The GFS solution is to bring a weak tropical system (near 1000 mb low) to Galveston Bay next Tuesday while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is a faster solution of taking its weak low of around 1000 mb up the Sabine Pass late Sunday. The NHC has placed a 30% chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. Obviously, due to the disagreement amongst models, confidence is very low but it will still be wise to pay attention to what becomes of this potential system. Tomorrow is the official start of the 2020 Hurricane Season so now is a good time to review your hurricane plan! 31
Occasional early day showers and an isolated thunderstorm can be expected over the maritime the next several days. Funnels and/or waterspouts are likely within the strongest cells. High pressure positioned over the southeastern U.S./Florida, along with a weak surface boundary paralleling the upper Texas coastline, will maintain a general (north)east wind today. Inland heating will cause a slight nearshore veering of winds to the southeast later in the afternoon. Nearshore significant wave heigheights will remain in the average near 2 foot range...3 to near 4 feet over the far offshore waters. The early week pressure gradient will favor a typical onshore wind orientation so southeasterly winds will become the dominant wind by Tuesday. The approach of a southern Gulf low into the northern Gulf early next week will back strengthened winds to the east-northeast and increase precipitation chances. 31
NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories