Matagorda Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...East To Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Early This Morning, Then Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Late This Morning And Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 25 Knots And Gusty. Bay Waters Choppy. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Easing To Around 15 Knots In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Bay Waters Choppy, Easing To Slightly Choppy In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers With Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. Showers With Thunderstorms Likely Early In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Late Evening And Early Morning. |
| Saturday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. |
| Sunday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. |
| Sunday Night...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To Slightly Choppy. |
| Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Backing To East In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth, Rising To Smooth To Slightly Choppy In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To Slightly Choppy. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 440am CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM,Hydrology Synopsis Issued at 225am CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Scattered to widespread showers with locally heavy rainfall will be possible through Friday afternoon with periods of lulls in the shower activity expected. - Light to moderate rainfall has already occurred across the SW portion of the region with totals of .8-1.5" - Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon today, an increase in coverage and intensity is expected this evening through Friday morning - especially across the SW portions of the region (particularly around Matagorda Bay) - A Flood Watch is in effect for Jackson, Matagorda, Brazoria, Wharton, Colorado and Fort Bend counties through Friday afternoon - Storm total rainfall through Friday will be generally up 2-5", however isolated higher amounts up to 9" will be possible within the Watch area - Overall minor urban and small stream flooding is expected, but a few instances of flash flooding is possible - with tonight into Friday morning being the main window of concern - Cannot out rule an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two developing this afternoon or Friday afternoon .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 225am CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 The rain has arrived and will be sticking around through the rest of the short term period. A large upper-level trough is swinging through northern Mexico into Texas this morning and a shortwave trough out ahead of this system is what is triggering the widespread showers we have seen over our southwestern counties since around sunset last night. MRMS QPE has rain totals through 2am generally around .75" to 1" across Jackson, Matagorda, Wharton, and Colorado counties with some pockets of higher totals nearing 1.5-2". This widespread light to moderate shower activity will persist through this morning along and south of I-10, but CAM guidance is indicating the showers will become more isolated to scattered (rather than the widespread/stratiform rain we are seeing overnight), but the coverage expands further north into the Brazos Valley and even to the Piney s by the mid afternoon. The main trough axis is expected to move through our region tonight through Friday afternoon increasing not only the coverage of the shower activity, but also the intensity. CAM guidance varies on exactly where the heaviest rainfall will occur (mainly due to mesoscale interactions that are hard to predict this far out), but there continues to be a better consensus that the moderate to heavy rainfall tonight will occur south of I-10, but west of I-45 with the areas around Matagorda Bay having the highest chances. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible for much of the region through Friday afternoon as the upper level disturbance slowly moves through. We finally get to be on the backside of the trough Friday evening leading to an end of the precipitation (on land, it may linger over the Gulf waters into Friday night). The Flood Watch has been expanded to now include Colorado and Fort Bend counties and has been extended through 00z Saturday (Friday evening). No big changes in the rainfall totals expected through the event: generally up to 2-5" with isolated higher amounts of up to 9" within the Watch area is expected. Now, ground soils are particularly dry with D1-D3 drought being experienced across the Watch area with 3-hr FFG around 4". So, there is going to need to be a decent amount of rain to overcome these dry grounds. Rain rates could be as high as 1-2" per hour within some of the stronger storms tonight into Friday, and there is also potential for some training storms. If these two things happen to occur at the same time, then we may be able to exceed the high FFG. Overall, minor/nuisance flooding of low-lying or poor drainage areas is expected - but some instances of flash flooding cannot be out ruled within the Watch area. There is some bust potential where the axis of heavy rainfall this evening through Friday morning sets up over the coastal waters and areas inland see much less rainfall. WPC has expanded the Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4 - corresponding to at least a 40% chance of exceeding FFG within a 25 miles of a point) to include most of Jackson County, western half of Matagorda County, and a portion of southern Wharton County. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) extends up to US-290 and down through eastern Brazoria County, and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) in the Brazos Valley down through the Houston Metro and Galveston County. For Friday, the Houston Metro and areas to the south and east are in a Slight Risk with the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk. Storm Prediction Center has also a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) today and tomorrow for portions of the region for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong wind gusts and hail (and possibly even a quick, weak tornado) - but the primary weather concern through Friday will be the localized heavy rainfall potential. Overcast skies will keep temperatures fairly seasonal during the daytime today and Friday with highs in the low to mid 70s, but mild overnight temperatures with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Long Term (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 225am CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 After a wet short term, the long term is looking fairly dry with just some slight chances of showers in the Piney s Sunday and again midweek next week due to a passing disturbances to the north. The main headline this weekend into next week will be the increasing temperatures and humidity with daytime high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s (even reaching 90 degrees by Wednesday) and overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. Marine Issued at 225am CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 The forecast through Friday night / Saturday morning is very complex, featuring higher than normal uncertainty. First, let's talk about what we know. First, we know there will be periods of rain and thunderstorms. Second, we know that winds will generally be moderate to fresh out of the east to southeast. In addition, we also know that seas will build. Our current forecast has winds over the bays and Gulf averaging ~15-20kts through Friday night. Winds within thunderstorms will likely be higher. But the real wild card in the forecast concerns potential for strong winds well outside of these thunderstorms. This is because we are likely to see larger clusters of strong thunderstorms called Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) which result in localized pressure perturbations, steepening the gradient in the vicinity of the storm. Therefore, be advised that there could periods of much higher winds even if your location is not directly hit by a thunderstorm. Self Hydrology Issued at 225am CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Preceding low river levels before this rain event will likely limit any significant river flooding over the next couple of days. However, some gauges along the Lavaca/Navidad may reach Action (bankfull) or even Minor stage with some rises of other area rivers possible by Friday afternoon. Check with the West Gulf RFC and at water.weather.gov for the latest river forecasts.. NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ210-226-227-235>237- 335>337-436-437. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7am CDT this morning through this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. |
Houston/Galveston TX Radar
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