Marine Weather Net

Matagorda Bay Marine Forecast


THIS AFTERNOON

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ330 Forecast Issued: 121 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

This Afternoon...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early.
Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Evening.
Friday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning.
Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy.
Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy.
Sunday Night...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy To Choppy. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
722pm CDT Wednesday May 29 2024

.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 352pm CDT Wednesday May 29 2024

In yet another sign that we are firmly, fully, and truly into summer, the radar and satellite show us that today is a day for a smattering of showers and storms around the area, but mostly focused on the seabreeze! At the very least, we can expect this to be a feature again tomorrow (and probably well beyond that, but that's a topic for the long term section below). The hot, humid summer airmass will provide plenty of potential energy for any thunderstorms that can get going. However, the warmth also extends upwards into the lower atmosphere, and so we'll also see some capping to prevent widespread development of showers and storms. This cap can be defeated, though, it will just take localized stronger thermal updrafts, or convergence along features like the seabreeze, or a front stalled just northeast of our area up around the Piney s.

In the strongest couple of storms, we could see some hail and/or damaging winds thanks to the ample amounts of moisture and instability available for an updraft that manages to grow significantly enough to tap into it. But that's the high end; the more common outcomes for folks into this evening and again tomorrow will be for something in the range of dry to a sub- severe thunderstorm.

If that all sounds very seasonable, very early-summer, you'd be right! And what also looks quite seasonable are the afternoon high temperatures. We are mostly in the upper 80s and lower 90s around the area this afternoon (shoutout Pearland at a lovely 77 post- thunderstorm!). Tomorrow looks pretty much the same. My forecast comes in very slightly cooler than today, but in the grand scheme of things, is largely in the same ballpark - middle 80s to around 90 degrees. Nighttime, however, is a slightly different situation: persistent onshore flow and high humidity will keep the temperature overnight up high, particularly right on the Gulf Coast. There, it will be difficult for temperatures to fall much below 80, if at all. Even lows in the middle 70s look to extend well inland. North of the Houston metro, we may manage lows in the lower 70s, still several degrees above average. If anyone can manage to fall below 70 degrees, the best shot will be in Houston County...but just the county, the city of Houston has got no shot.

Long Term
(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 352pm CDT Wednesday May 29 2024

Chances for showers and storms continue for Friday...and the next day...and the next day...and the next day...and the...well...you get the picture. With multiple shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow aloft interacting with elevated moisture (PW values (Precipitable Water values) up to 1.8-2.2" at times) and plentiful instability (CAPE generally between 2500- 3500 J/kg at times), we'll continue to see the daily chances for showers and storms. Things look especially interesting on Friday as a fairly robust shortwave drifts through the Southern Plains with the tail-end of it passing through the Brazos Valley/Piney s. CAPE during this timeframe will be in that 2500-3500 J/kg range and will be paired with steep 700-500mb lapse rates (~7.5-8.0°/km), bulk shear of around 40 knots, upper level diffluence, and PVA from the passing shortwave. This scenario is favorable from some of the storms that develop on Friday to become strong to severe, and as of right now it appears that damaging winds and hail will be the main hazards as a linear convective system seems to be favored.

Storm Prediction Center currently has most of Southeast TX (with the exception of areas along the coast) in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe weather. It currently appears that the greatest potential of severe weather would be across the Brazos Valley/Piney s, but there is plenty of time for that change. With PW values (Precipitable Water values) near and exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.87"), there is the potential for locally heavy rainfall leading to isolated street flooding in vulnerable areas. WPC has outlined a slight risk (level 2 out of 4) of excessive rainfall generally north of a Columbus-Huntsville-Onalaska line and a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) elsewhere with the exception of areas near the coast for Friday. The parade of shortwaves continues throughout the weekend and into early next week leading to persistent chances of rainfall. Generally, chances for showers/storms will be a little bit higher the further to the north you are...but you should also note that the timing and placement of these storms will likely be dictated by mesoscale features, so don't place too much stock into the rain chances at a particular location at a particular time. It is springtime after all! Speaking of that, let's talk temperatures.

The daily chances of rain will generally keep our daytime temperatures right around normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s throughout the forecast period. Daytime temperatures will be mainly in the low 90s early next week as we get on a little bit of a warming trend with ridging aloft building in by midweek. Nighttime temperatures are a different story though as those will continue to run well above normal with lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s. We won't be able to escape the warm and muggy nigheights just yet, but there will be some lucky folks that get some rain-cooled air each day...that'll be the equivalent of winning the weather lottery!

Marine
Issued at 352pm CDT Wednesday May 29 2024

Generally light onshore flow will continue through the forecast period with intermittent periods of moderate onshore flow mainly during the overnight/early morning hours. Seas will remain in the 3 to 5 ft range through the weekend and may approach 6 ft early next week with the persistent onshore flow. Another result from the steady onshore flow is an elevated risk of rip currents that will likely extend into next week. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into early next week due to various passing upper level disturbances.

Batiste

Hydrology
Issued at 352pm CDT Wednesday May 29 2024

There are currently three River Flood Warnings in effect: two along the Trinity River and one on the Navasota River. The Trinity River at Liberty is forecast to remain in minor flood stage through Thursday afternoon. The Trinity River at Moss Bluff is forecast to continue in minor flood through the weekend. The Navasota River at Normangee is forecast to continue on its downward trend and should drop out of minor flood stage late Wednesday night.

Please monitor updated forecasts via the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as river flooding continues.

Batiste

NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.