Matagorda Bay Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Patchy Fog. |
| Wednesday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. |
| Wednesday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. |
| Thursday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. |
| Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. |
| Friday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. |
| Friday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. |
| Saturday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. |
| Saturday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1225pm CST Tuesday Feb 3 2026 ...NewARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms are expected along a frontal boundary that will push through late this afternoon and evening. - A cool down to seasonal temperatures is expected Wednesday- Thursday. - Warmer than normal temperatures return Friday into the weekend. Issued at 1149am CST Tuesday Feb 3 2026 Let's begin this AFD by talking about Precipitable Water (PWAT). If you take a glance at SPC's mesoanalysis page for south-central CONUS, you'll notice a stream of 1.0-1.2 inch PWAT (Precipitable Water) being pushed from the Gulf into E Texas via deep LL (sfc-850 mb) S to SSW flow. This has helped instigate the numerous showers across the CWA, with a few locally heavy downpours. Generally speaking, the atmosphere is behaving as predicted. But there is one change in the forecast relative to 24 hours ago, and that is the uptick in expected LL instability. The low-levels are not expected to be THAT unstable. But HREF surface cape is showing decent potential for at least 400-500 j/kg over portions of the CWA, with HREF max suggesting locally over 1000 j/kg late this afternoon roughly along and east of I-45 and north of I-10. Given the robust jet above, efficient LL moisture transport, and surface convergence from an approaching cold front, I'm not going to be surprised if we end up seeing some thunderstorms on radar later this afternoon evening, especially along and just ahead of the front. SE Texas is not outlooked for severe weather today. But a locally heavy thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as the front pushes through later this afternoon and into the evening. We are expecting a cool down in the front's wake. But as discussed in previous AFDs, the current system lacks the arctic connection that has been common of late. This can be noticed via the strength of the surface high pushing southward across the plains (~1030 mb vs the recent 1040-1050+ mb highs of recent). You will notice a northerly breeze on Wednesday. But temperatures will only drop to about normal. Afternoon temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday are expected to range from the upper 50s to mid 60s, with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Our northern Piney s counties could manage a light freeze. But those areas average lows in the upper 30s this time of year. So a low in the lower 30s could be considered the low side of normal up there. Mid/upper ridging takes hold by the weekend, signaling a return to warmer than average temperatures. The NBM is showing most locations back above 70 degrees on Friday. Some areas could approach 80 over the weekend! But to our west potentially looms a robust mid/upper trough or low. Both deterministic and ensemble data are showing this feature. Therefore, it wouldn't surprise me if rainfall chances increase for the early and/or middle part of next week. But that's a bit beyond the scope of our forecast. Self Marine Issued at 1149am CST Tuesday Feb 3 2026 Winds remain strong enough offshore to warrant a continuation of the Small Craft Advisory through the rest of this afternoon. A relatively long fetch of 15-25 knot winds is enhancing seas offshore of Matagorda, especially 20+ NM offshore. Winds and seas should decrease later today and this evening as a front approaches. The front could produce locally heavy showers and thunderstorms as it pushes offshore this evening into tonight. We cannot rule out patchy fog ahead of the front this evening. The overall set up for fog is marginal. Gusty north winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday, and advisories are possible. Best chance of Small Craft Advisory level conditions will be over the Gulf, but couldn't rule out meeting criteria over the bays. Lighter and more SW winds are expected on Friday and Saturday. South to southeast flow and higher moisture levels are possible early next week. Therefore, there is potential for sea fog next week. NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6pm CST this evening for GMZ350-355-375. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm CST this evening for GMZ370. |
Houston/Galveston TX Radar
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