Matagorda Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...South Winds Around 10 Knots Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Bay Waters Smooth To Slightly Choppy Becoming Smooth After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...West Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming South In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth Becoming Slightly Choppy In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy Becoming Smooth After Midnight.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy Becoming Smooth After Midnight.|
Synopsis for High Island to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 60 nautical miles including Galveston and Matagorda Bays - GMZ300|
415 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020
Generally light onshore flow and low seas are expected through the week as high pressure builds over the Gulf. Chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase this upcoming weekend.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
405pm CDT Monday August 3 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday Afternoon]... An upper level shortwave will be moving across Central Texas today, and across Southeast Texas late this evening through Tuesday. The proximity of the shortwave along with a slight increase in low level moisture could trigger a few showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon as heating peaks. In addition, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms to the northwest of the CWA are gradually moving south southeastward. This activity could make its way into SE Texas later in the afternoon and evening. Any outflow boundaries produced by this activity could also produce a few more showers and thunderstorms through late evening. Any lingering activity should dissipate by early tonight. The shortwave is to continue to move across Southeast Texas Tuesday morning, reaching the Gulf waters sometime Tuesday afternoon. With the shortwave over our region along with decent amounts of low level moisture in place (PWs between 1.50 to 2.0 inches), isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop during the afternoon hours...dissipating in the evening.
High temperatures today and Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 90s. With moisture slightly higher on Tuesday, heat indices will rise a degree or two but will stay below Advisory criteria. Low temperatures tonight will remain in the mid to upper 70s. 24
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]... As the upper trough axis continues to push eastward by late Tuesday, an approaching upper ridge will become the dominant synoptic feature over the extended period, with its axis positioned near the leeside of the Rocky mountains by early Wednesday. With the approach of this feature, we should experience a prolonged period of near-seasonable high temperatures and precipitation associated mainly with the typical summertime diurnal cycle. Expect high temperatures through the weekend and into the early part of next week to stay in the low 90s along the coast, the mid-90s across the Houston metro, and the upper 90s to low 100s across the northern zones.
Global guidance remains in fairly good agreement in showing an increase in low-level moisture (surface PWs above 2.0 in) on Wednesday and into Thursday as a disturbance embedded within the prevailing upper ridge passes to our northeast. While most of the activity associated to this feature will likely develop to the east of the CWA, have maintained Probability of Precipitation in the 20s across the metro area and eastern zones with scattered to isolated activity expected. Heading into the end of the work week and towards the weekend, the trough axis pushes further eastward into the central conus, with surface high pressure concurrently pushing further eastward into the central Gulf. As the surface wind field takes on more of a southerly component, should see a return to the more typical diurnally driven convection by Friday with initial scattered activity developing offshore and advancing inland as the day progresses. Have carried 20- 30% Probability of Precipitation through the weekend and into early next week with this pattern expected to continue as the overall synoptic picture shows little change.
Light onshore flow will continue through the rest of the week, along with seas of 1 to 2 feet as high pressure builds over the Gulf. Rain chances will increase this weekend.
NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories