Matagorda Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy Becoming Smooth After Midnight.|
|Sunday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming East In The Afternoon And Increasing To Near 15 Knots In The Late Afternoon. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. Isolated Showers Late In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...South Winds Around 10 Knots Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Bay Waters Smooth To Slightly Choppy Becoming Smooth After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth Becoming Smooth To Slightly Choppy In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots Becoming East In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth To Slightly Choppy.|
|Wednesday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
|Thursday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth Becoming Slightly Choppy In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
Synopsis for High Island to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 60 nautical miles including Galveston and Matagorda Bays - GMZ300|
1009 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
A cold over the nearshore waters will continue to push south this evening with gusty north winds becoming northeast in early morning hours. Onshore flow will return Sunday night and Monday as high pressure moves off to the east. Another cold front is currently expected to move off the coast sometime on Tuesday.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1150pm CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday)... The cold front is continuing to slowly make its way across the CWA this afternoon, with only some weak showers associated with it. The stronger activity looks to be just north of the area and may only affect our far northern counties (i.e. Madison, Houston, Trinity) based on the current trends. Otherwise, we'll be keeping with the previous timeline with regards to FROPA as this boundary moves off the coast between 4-6PM CDT.
Slightly cooler/drier air will be filtering into the region tonight as the surface high builds down from the Plains. Low tonight should range from the lower 50s over the northern parts of the CWA to the lower 60s over the southern half. Low temperatures along the immediate coast are going to be near mid 60s. The lower humidities/mostly clear skies will be sticking around tomorrow as the surface high edges slowly east with time. Highs tomorrow are expected to be in the upper 70s/lower 80s for much of SE TX. Some low rain chances could return as early as tomorrow night as the boundary moves back onshore as a warm front. But for now, this scenario looks more likely to occur on Mon. 41
LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)... The period begins with the inland advance of a coastal warm front through the day Monday. As the lower level column begins to saturate back up, there will be an increased chance for early Monday under-the-cap showers. Rainfall probabilities significantly increase from late (Monday) morning through early afternoon with the forcing of the warm front primarily producing widely-scattered showers and with embedded, isolated thunderstorms. Unfortunately, overall low 24 hour Quantitative Precipitation Forecast of under a quarter of an inch which will do little to slow this current cool season drought. The passage of a near-eastern tracking shortwave trough across Oklahoma will pull down a front along its backside early Tuesday. This will allow a northern dry air mass to descend over the region and this air mass will remain in place through mid week. Monday's overcast and scattered precipitation will keep diurnal extremes in the more humid morning lower to middle 60s with the afternoon still warming up into the lower 80s under a warm air advection regime. Tuesday through Thursday's weather will be drier from both a precipitation and humidity stand point. Mid week clearing skies and weak offshore winds will have the waning days of March warming back into the lower to middle 80s (it is not foolish to believe that Wednesday's high temperatures may reach the upper 80s over the SW'ern CWA). Mornings will be more comfortable...middle 50s to lower 60s per the resident dry air mass.
Mid week upper level transitory ridging gives way to late week somewhat shallow shortwave trough passages along with periods of weak PVA moving up within the southwesterly mid layer steering flow. Increasing moisture and thickening late week cloud cover will regulate daytime warming to the middle to upper 70s by week's close. While the models are having a difficult time agreeing with the late period pattern, they do both show a Friday or Saturday passage of a relatively deeper shortwave trough. The southern branch of the jet is forecast to come across the state with a fairly progressive Friday cold frontal passage spiking next Friday through early Saturday's rain and thunderstorm threat. Timing may be off, but it does appear that southeastern Texas will receive a decent bout of weather during the first few days of April. 31
The latest cold front is still expected to move off the coast late this afternoon with only isolated showers possible with it passage. Generally light N/NW winds to develop tonight with high pressure building down into the region. As the high moves slowly east, winds across the marine waters will also be shifting to the east tomorrow afternoon. The return of the front as a warm front on Mon will also mean the return of light/ moderate onshore winds and isolated SHRAs over the bays/coastal waters. Models remain on track with the passage of the next cold front on Tues. We could see a bit more activity with the passage of this system, along with light/moderate offshore winds in place through early Weds morning. SE winds set to return Weds night...slowly strengthening Thur/Fri along with the return of some unsettled weather. At this time, not anticipating any Advisory or Caution flags through the next several days. 41
NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories