Marine Weather Net

Galveston Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY

W
WINDS
5 KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

S
WINDS
5 KNOTS

FRIDAY

NW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ335 Forecast Issued: 234 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Early This Evening. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Thursday...West Winds Around 5 Knots, Backing To South In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth. Scattered Showers. Isolated Thunderstorms Early In The Morning, Then Scattered Thunderstorms In The Late Morning And Afternoon.
Thursday Night...South Winds Around 5 Knots, Veering To Southwest After Midnight. Bay Waters Smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms In The Evening. Scattered Showers.
Friday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Backing To Southwest In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth. Showers. Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...South Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight, Then Showers Likely Late.
Saturday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Backing To Southeast In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth. Showers Likely. Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon.
Saturday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely Early In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Sunday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Showers.
Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611pm CDT Wednesday July 17 2024

.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 150pm CDT Wednesday July 17 2024

Think of today as the transition day from hot weather with a few storms to a more rainy weather pattern as a cold front pushes towards Southeast Texas. Now I know what you're thinking...cold front?! At this time of year, in this part of the country, localized entirely within the Southern Plains?! The cold front itself won't technically make it any cooler because it'll be fairly weak and diffuse. However, the increasing moisture along with upper level support (PVA) that results from it will lead to increasing rain chances. So, the effects from the frontal boundary will make it "cooler" but only by a few degrees per day. But hey, this time last year we were talking about our high temperatures (not heat index values) reaching the triple digits, so I'd take rainy weather (just not too rainy) any day over that. The frontal boundary doesn't move in until early Thursday, so we'll get back to that in a sec. For this afternoon, we're already seeing scattered convection developing mainly south of I-10. One rather robust storm around the Pasadena area has prompted a few Special Weather Statements and a Flood Advisory with peak rainfall rates of ~3-4"/hr. Temperatures this afternoon topping out mainly in the mid to upper 90s north of I-10 and low to mid 90s south of I-10 certainly played a role by adding in some decent heating to the mix. Heat index values topped out just below our Heat Advisory threshold this afternoon with most values topping out around 104-107°F.

Tonight is when we'll see the frontal boundary approach from the north. The 12Z CAMs are in somewhat of agreement on a cluster of storms developing along the boundary with the greatest potential for coverage being west of I-45 tonight into Thursday morning. This will play a factor into what occurs Thursday afternoon, because a solution of widespread rainfall will stabilize the environment and keep things isolated. However, if things aren't as widespread tonight, then we could see additional showers/storms develop during the afternoon hours on Thursday. With the increasing rain chances though comes "cooler" temperatures as we are only anticipating high temperatures in the low 90s for Thursday. Low temperatures see a similar drop as well with lows going from the upper 70s on Wednesday night to the low to mid 70s on Thursday night. With PW values (Precipitable Water values) above the 90th percentile at times (especially with moisture convergence along the frontal boundary), so locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times and could lead to isolated street flooding. With that in mind, it's worth mentioning that WPC has most of Southeast TX outlined in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall tonight (north of I-10) into tomorrow (most of Southeast TX).

Batiste/Holloway

Long Term
(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 150pm CDT Wednesday July 17 2024

The pattern will remained unsettled for southeast Texas during the long term. The atmosphere near the surface will feature a stalled, weak frontal boundary. The mid/upper levels will feature increased troughing, dropping mid/upper pressure heigheights through early next week. 500MB height ensemble means suggest negative anomalies across much of the southern plains. Once diurnal processes are added to the mix, we end up with an elevated daily chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms across our region. Highest Probability of Precipitation in the Friday- Tuesday time frame are generally over the southern half of the CWA. But our northern counties will likely partake in the action as well. Locally heavier thunderstorms are likely. Therefore, we cannot rule out localized flooding during the long term.

Now let's talk about temperatures! If you're not a fan of the higher rain chances, then perhaps you can take solace in the below average afternoon temperatures. Friday - Sunday
ternoon highs are expected to average in the upper 80s to low 90s. By Monday and Tuesday, we may be able to drop those values into the mid/upper 80s! Sure, it will still be humid. Overnight lows will not drop, remaining well into the 70s for most. But as we all know, the heat can be quite stifling here in southeast Texas. So enjoy the less hot weather while it lasts!

Self

Marine
Issued at 150pm CDT Wednesday July 17 2024

Generally light winds and low seas are expected through the weekend. Winds may increase somewhat Monday-Tuesday, but should remain in the light to occasionally moderate range. There will be a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms thanks to an approaching, weak frontal boundary that will stall over our region by the weekend. Locally higher winds and seas possible near and within thunderstorms.

NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.