Galveston Bay Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To Slightly Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers Late This Evening And Overnight. Patchy Fog. |
| Sunday...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To Slightly Choppy. A Chance Of Showers Until Late Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Showers Likely Late. Patchy Fog Late. |
| Sunday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Veering To Southwest Late In The Evening, Veering To Northwest After Midnight. Bay Waters Smooth. A Chance Of Thunderstorms Early In The Evening. Patchy Fog In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Monday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. |
| Tuesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. |
| Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wednesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Thursday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 553pm CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Long Term (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1247pm CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Warmer weather and rising rain chances can best summarized the forecast trend for next week. On Monday, we'll start off with surface high pressure draped over SE Texas/Northern Gulf coast, courtesy of a recent cold front. We could see some showers early in the day as that weak cold front pushes off the coast, though thereafter we should see a lull in rain chances. Onshore flow returns by Tuesday, with PWs rising to 1.0-1.4" over SE Texas. The return of WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) and isentropic lifting, paired with some weaker impulses aloft should bring periods of isolated rain chances on Tuesday. Those impulses aloft come from a mid/upper level cutoff low, which starts out over southern California/Four Corners/Baja California. This system will slowly work it's way east over the next several days, taking on a Rex-Block pattern as ridging sets up north of the cutoff low. Showers become more widespread and persistent from Wednesday and onwards. Thursday and onwards begins to look especially soggy. A deeper trough to the northwest looks to push a cold front into SE Texas. Deterministic guidance suggests that this boundary could stall out over our area, or push offshore and stall out over the Gulf. Even still, some of those more optimistic solutions depict the boundary lifting back north as a warm front/coastal trough near the end of the work week. Bottom line, guidance is entertaining the idea that a stalled frontal boundary remaining in place over SE Texas, which can act as a forcing feature to produce locally heavy rains. Though thats not the only factor looking to enhance rainfall rates, as PWs should reach 1.3-1.8" over the area (varying by your model of choice). A low level jet of ~40 knots begins to set in over the area on Thursday/Friday, with diffluence developing aloft as the aforementioned low tracks eastward. Forecast soundings show deep saturation and skinny MU cape profiles for both Thursday and Friday. Even this far out, we've sort of checked off every box in the "heavy rainfall" category outside of slow corfidi vectors (which are too high at the moment). Ensemble table for NAEFS, GEFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) showing PWs above the 90th Climatological and M-Climate percentile, approaching the all-time max for this time of the year during some periods. Guidance suggests that this possible heavy rain threat comes to a close late Friday night/early Saturday, though LREF cluster analysis for day 7 shows higher heigheights in the parent ridge of the rex block (cluster 1 & 2), with higher highs preceding the cutoff low (cluster 2), suggesting a slower departure compared to the grand ensemble. This suggests that the coastal trough and heavier rainfall may require a bit more time to depart the area off to the east. We're several days out from this next bout of rainfall so a lot can change. Signs point towards a relatively soggy period beginning Wednesday, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall from Thursday through Friday night. Street flooding is within the realm of possibility with this pattern, though we'll get a better idea of the specifics with this rainfall heading into next week. 03 Marine Issued at 1247pm CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Light to moderate onshore winds will occasionally warrant caution flags ahead of an approaching cold front this weekend. Periods of scattered showers and isolated storms possible today and tonight, with rainfall becoming more widespread across the Gulf Waters on Sunday as the front pushes towards the coast. Patchy sea fog will be possible in the bays and nearshore waters ahead of this front, mainly from dusk to dawn if winds end up being calmer. Northerly winds set in behind the front with a lull in rain chances setting in early next week as the cold front stalls offshore. Onshore winds return by Tuesday, with winds and rain chances increasing throughout the work week. Patchy sea fog could also return during this period if winds stay low enough. Widespread rain chances and locally heavy rainfall will be possible with a stronger disturbance arriving on Thursday, continuing through Friday ahead of a cold front. Lower tide levels will be possible at low tide Sunday morning through mid next week. 03 NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9pm CST this evening for GMZ350-355-370-375. |
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