High Island to Freeport, TX Marine Forecast
| Today...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. |
| Tonight...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers Late. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. A Chance Of Showers Early In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Late Morning And Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Easing To Around 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. |
| Friday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. |
| Friday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Saturday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...North Winds Around 15 Knots, Rising To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 519am CST Tuesday Jan 14 2025 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 421am CST Tuesday Jan 14 2025 High pressure over the Mid-South still prevails for today's weather, but our focus will gradually turn down the coast for the formation of a coastal trough. Its strength and track will be the primary driver for rain chances late tonight through tomorrow. But first, today. We're starting this morning near or a bit cooler than average. Given the veil of high cloud cover already streaming in overhead, I wouldn't expect anything to change for highs during the day, either. Forecast highs are in the mid-50s to around 60 today. Given the high pressure situated to our northeast, winds will continue to be roughly easterly or even more northeasterly through the day, which should also keep dewpoints down across the inland bulk of the area. Tonight, the high doesn't really go anywhere, but it does look get sort of squeezed/sheared out, largely to replaced by a fairly similar high dropping down the Mississippi River. This high pressure center will not be riding a raft down the river as this path is largely just a coincidence...but I wouldn't blame you if you pictured it as a Huck Finn character making its way in. All this is to say that with a bit of a jumble happening with this prevailing high, that leaves room for a developing coastal trough to exert more influence on our weather tonight through tomorrow. But...I'm not actually sure how big a deal that's going to be. Guidance seems to move this trough pretty quickly off the lower Texas coast and out over the Gulf, putting us already west of the trough axis and likely largely just reinforcing the pre-existing northeast-easterly flow regime. Now, while subtle, we do look to see dewpoints and precipitable water rise tonight. This is likely due to more direct onshore flow just aloft bringing in moisture directly to the column, and likely mixing its way down to the surface. Because of this, I still bring in some rain chances tonight and Wednesday, but keep things closer to the coast. So my mention of "slight chances" runs roughly from Brenham to Conroe to Livingston. "Chance" Probability of Precipitation are roughly along and south of I-10. "Likely" Probability of Precipitation are largely pinned to around and coastward of US-59, southwest of the Houston Metro...and coastward of the Beltway from there. And that's not all! Even where my Probability of Precipitation are high, that only implies a high confidence of any measurable rainfall, with a *strong* emphasis on the word "any". Because even our deepest moisture brings PWATs (Precipitable Waters) to around or just over an inch, I'm not anticipating much in the way of rainfall...I'm just more confident we'll get some light showers. Temperature-wise, expect a sharp compression of the diurnal range, with "warmer" lows tonight, and cooler highs down in the (low to) mid-50s. As the trough makes its way out over the Gulf, winds should turn offshore, and whatever light showers managed to push their way onto the coast will move on off while clouds eventually break deeper into the night. This should allow lows in the 30s to return inland of the Houston metro, while those closer to the coast are cooler, but look to stay in the 40s. Long Term (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 421am CST Tuesday Jan 14 2025 Early long term forecast is of lesser consequence relatively speaking. Surface high pressure slides east overhead on Thursday, pushing the coastal/gulf trough deep into the Southern Gulf, giving us a lull in rainfall. High pressure continues eastward on Friday, with southeasterly flow bringing WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) and moisture advection. This warms up highs into the 60s/lower 70s on Friday with temperatures for Friday night in the 40s/50s. The forecast goes downhill from here on out, especially with regards to temperature, as Texas is forecast to get slammed with cold weather this weekend into next week. This burst of cold air initially comes from a shortwave over the Southern Plains, which should push a strong cold front into the Brazos Valley sometime early Saturday morning. Showers/thunderstorms should accompany the FROPA, with gusty northerly wind filling in behind it as it moves offshore later that afternoon. Lows Temperatures for Sunday morning are currently forecasted to be in the 30s/40s, but thats just the beginning of this cold spell. A deep upper level low over the Hudson Bay (Canada) will push a strong 1040-1050mb surface high into the Northern PLains/Great Basin on Sunday. This frigid arctic airmass should fill in across the CONUS overnight into next week, bringing very cold conditions to SE Texas. Some uncertain remain as to the specifics with this cold air mass, so much of the numbers you see can change these next few days. At present, lows Temperatures for Monday & Tuesday morning are currently forecasted to be in the 20s inland to lower 30s along the coast. Hard Freeze conditions (Temps 24 or lower) will be possible in areas north of I-10, and especially so across the Brazos Valley/Piney s area, where NBM probabilities show high confidence (70-90% chance) for reaching Hard Freeze temperatures. Wind Chill temperatures are forecasted to be in the 20s to lower teens. LREF ensemble probabilities show that there is a low (30%) but still non-zero chance of Wind chills hitting single digits over the far northern reaches of our CWA (County Warning Area) early Tuesday morning. In the mist of these frigid conditions, a coastal trough is forecast to form near the Deep S Texas/Mexico coastline on Monday. This feature and the influx of moisture across the Texas coastal bend introduces a chance for precipitation on Monday. Models show -18 to - 20C at 500mb over our area by this point in the forecast. Dynamic Ensemble Soundings unfortunately show too much spread at this point to add much value, though notably it emphasizes the depth of this cold air mass, keeping temperatures throughout much of the sounding profile consistently below freezing aloft. If we take a look at long- range deterministic forecast soundings, they initially start off drier, but slowly saturate as the day progress, with some even suggesting a possibility of a seeder- feeder effect. While PWs remain fairly low, 700 and 850mb Frontogenesis further entertain the possibility of wintry precipitation. Bottom line, there is a chance that we may see a mix of winter precipitation on Monday, mainly in the form of sleet/snow inland during the day due to above-freezing surface temperatures, and moreso rain closer to the coast. This also means that, presently, none of this wintry mix is expected to accumulate, though if precipitation continues to occur into the night, then snow may become the more dominant precipitation type. Regardless, uncertainty is high, so stay tuned for updates. Marine Issued at 443am CST Tuesday Jan 14 2025 A coastal trough will bring scattered showers/storms, east/northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots and seas of 3 to 6 feet through mid week. This will warrant caution flags and occasionally Small Craft Advisories through Thursday. During this time frame, low tide levels are expected across the bays, which may make navigation difficult in some spots. Southerly winds return Friday morning and strengthen overnight ahead of the next cold front. This strong cold front should push offshore sometime Saturday afternoon, bringing showers/storms as it passes then gusty northerly winds and high seas in it's wake. Cold arctic air will works its way to the coast on Sunday into next week. Chances of a hard freeze occuring around Galveston Bay next week are low (20-30%). 03 NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ330-350-355-370-375. |
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