High Island to Freeport, TX Marine Forecast
|Today...Winds Briefly Becoming North And Northeast Around 10 Knots Early This Morning. Otherwise, Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Tonight...South Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.|
|Thursday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds Around 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Friday...South Winds Around 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636am CDT Monday May 16 2022
ssued 407am CDT Monday May 16 2022/... Short Term - Through Tuesday Night
Latest radar imagery shows remnant showers originating from an MCS that moved through Southern OK/Northern TX overnight beginning to push into the area, along with an associated outflow boundary quickly outpacing their southward progress. Isolated showers will taper off over the next few hours, with a brief northerly wind shift behind the aforementioned outflow developing. In general, showers should be confined mainly to the north of the I-10 corridor.
Synoptic pattern remains generally on track with the upper trough over the central Gulf giving way to a building ridge that looks to strengthen over the Central CONUS over the next several days. Onshore winds persist at the surface as surface high pressure over the Central Gulf remains in place while a developing surface low to the east of the Four Corners maintaining a moderately tight surface gradient. With the building ridge and continued WAA/moisture advection persisting, hot and humid conditions will prevail with a gradual warming trend over the next several days. National blend continues to show a high temperature bias, likely in part to significant over-prediction of MaxT present in recent GFS runs. Given this, have opted to continue to side towards the lower end of NBM distribution with highs today inching closer towards the mid 90s and increasing a further 1-2 degrees tomorrow afternoon. Overnight lows look to also be on an increasing trend with overnight cloud cover increasing over the next few days. Expect lows in the lower 70s inland and in the upper 70s along the coast.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
Mid-upper ridge continues to flatten during the midweek time period which should allow for some of the embedded impulses in the flow aloft to begin tracking closer, or across the area. Threw some low POPs into the grids Fri as atmos should be less hostile to any precipitation moving into the region from upstream...should it occur as some models have intermittently been suggesting.
Otherwise, most medium range guidance (with the exception of ICON) are still generally on board bringing a weak front into the region sometime Sat which should theoretically provide a llevel focusing mechanism and some better rain chances. Have 20-30 POPs in the forecast for now which will (hopefully) need to be adjusted upward once we get a better feel for timing/details. That said, NBM isn't too excited about overall chances and the old rule of thumb not to forecast rain in a drought comes to mind. 47
An outflow boundary from earlier storms well to the north may briefly cause a wind shift to the northeast or east early this morning across portions of the upper Texas coast. It should wash out fairly quickly and light to moderate south and southwest winds will persist for the early part of the week. Winds will become more south and southeast toward midweek as high pressure weakens. Winds and seas should gradually increase as the pressure gradient begins tightening. May need some intermittent caution flags, generally at night the next day or two, then a mix of caution/advisory flags in the mid and late week time period. 47
NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7am CDT this morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.