Marine Weather Net

High Island to Freeport, TX Marine Forecast


TODAY

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THURSDAY

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ355 Forecast Issued: 332 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
Today...Northeast Winds Increasing To Around 20 Knots This Morning Then Diminishing To Around 15 Knots Late. Seas 4 To 5 Feet.
Tonight...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet.
Thursday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To Around 15 Knots Late. Seas 4 To 5 Feet.
Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.
Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.
Friday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet.
Sunday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet.
Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1154pm CDT Tuesday September 27 2022

Long Term
(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 331pm CDT Tuesday September 27 2022

Lows in the northern part of the forecast area last night already managed to already match my forecast lows for Thursday night. This made it pretty clear that, though the initial bit of cold air behind the front was very shallow and got some help, things are going to cool very effectively once the drier air really gets in there. Obviously, I'm feeling the need to cut down on the lows forecast.

On the flipside, I don't want to get too aggressive with it, as cold advection looks to stall and maybe even reverse a bit tonight, until Ian moves up into the Gulf enough to resume some modest cold advection here as it enhances northeast flow at low levels. Of course, what's probably more important here than colder air coming in is reinforcing the drier air coming in, leaving the chilliness to come from efficient radiational cooling overnight. Ultimately, I ended up shifting lows from the deterministic NBM to the 25th percentile. That cuts down lows some, but also seemed to hold our typical geographic pattern when radiational cooling dominates better than most of the deterministic solutions.

While that sufficed for most of the week, this got to be a bit too much of a cut getting into the weekend, as the gradient wind should (keyword: should, dependent on Ian's track) diminish and allow the seabreeze circulation to try to make itself known again. This should start to bring some higher dewpoints back into the picture from the coast inward. So, for that, I switched back to the deterministic NBM and undercutting slightly.

High temperatures were more or less keeping the same idea from previous days going. Dry air will help the night cool off, but also should maximize heating during the day, so highs in the 80s for most of the week seems perfectly reasonable, creeping back up towards 90 degrees inland late this weekend or early next week. There are some minor changes in the precise numbers day to day, but any changes aren't really enough to make a noticeable change to how people will be feeling.

Marine
Issued at 331pm CDT Tuesday September 27 2022

As Ian has crossed Cuba and into the far southeast Gulf of Mexico, we are going to gradually begin seeing more influence of the storm on the forecast for our marine waters - particularly for the Gulf waters farther offshore. Caution flags are already in place on the Gulf with plenty of gusts on the waters to SCEC and even some occasional gusts above small craft threshold. We should see slow increase in the winds, and so the Gulf waters get a small craft advisory late tonight, which should go through at least tomorrow - but potentially longer.

Between Ian over the Eastern Gulf and high pressure to our north, winds should stay up with caution and/or advisory flags needed for stretches through much of the week. Eventually, as Ian exits the scene, winds will relax and show signs of returning to the diurnal cycle. Seas should also diminish as well, backing more into the 1-3 foot range by the late weekend.

We'll also have to watch water levels at times of high tide for the next several days. Tides could reach to around 3 feet above MLLW in the second half of the week. As it is, this is short of levels typically needed to cause coastal flooding issues, but the long periods of the waves have been known to increase wave runup, and cause issues at slightly lower thresholds. We will have to monitor as the week goes on and be prepared to quickly anticipate any tide problems.

NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 5am CDT Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 5am CDT Wednesday for GMZ350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 5am to 4pm CDT Wednesday for GMZ350- 355-370-375.