Galveston Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots Late. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy, Increasing To Choppy Late. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early This Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late This Morning And Early Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. |
| Thursday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To Around 15 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Choppy, Diminishing To Slightly Choppy After Midnight. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. |
| Saturday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Saturday Night...East Winds Around 15 Knots, Becoming North 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Slightly Choppy, Increasing To Rough After Midnight. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Diminishing To Around 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Rough, Diminishing To Choppy In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 655am CDT Wednesday April 1 2026 Issued at 1119pm CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2026 In last night's discussion, we talked about how the fog potential would be inhibited by winds remaining elevated thanks to elevated winds aloft from a nearby LLJ. Whelp, we have the results and it turns out our theory was correct! Go us!!! With that in mind, we have another round of ~25 kt winds aloft which well help keep winds a bit elevated overnight. Since we know what happened last night with a similar setup, we can have a bit higher confidence on fog potential being inhibited tonight as well. It's not entirely impossible though...just on the off chance fog develops just to prove us wrong. Onshore flow will continue to increase low-level moisture, which will lead to low temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s. Just for comparison, our normal HIGH temperature for this time of the year is in the upper 70s. Daytime temperatures will continue to be above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s, but there will be a few instances where we deviate from this thanks to the return of rain chances! Having rain chances in the forecast feels like a victory in and of itself! The last time that the City of Houston had observable rainfall (more than a trace) was March 11th...nearly three weeks ago! As you can imagine, that's not great for the ongoing drought situation. ~83% of Southeast Texas remains in at least a severe drought, but there is FINALLY some relief on the way. This rainfall won't take us out of drought conditions completely, but it certainly won't cause further degradations. The first opportunity for rainfall comes on Wednesday into Thursday. PW values (Precipitable Water values) reach near or above the 90th percentile (~1.50") by late Wednesday. Couple that with a LLJ, a passing embedded shortwave, and daytime heating, and we have potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon hours. As a shortwave trough pushes through the Four Corners region on Wednesday, a subsequent surface low will develop near the Oklahoma Panhandle and drift northeastward. An associated cold front will will push into the northwestern portion of the state but stall out in this region. Moisture convergence along the front will have PW values (Precipitable Water values) well above the 90th percentile. Divergence aloft only adds to the favorable environment for showers/storms, but the more favorable support looks to be over the Brazos Valley and the Piney s. With PW values (Precipitable Water values) as high as they are, locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. The general timing for this looks to be Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours. PW values (Precipitable Water values) remain elevated going into Friday and with more passing embedded shortwaves and daytime heating, chances for showers/storms persist. Late Saturday into Sunday is when the next high chances of rain comes. This is due to another cold front, but this one looks to actually push through thanks to more favorable upper level support through an upper level low sweeping through the CONUS. It still remains a little too early to look into the exact synoptic details, but the ingredients do look to be in place for moderate to heavy rainfall. As a result, WPC has outlined all of Southeast Texas in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall. Model guidance still remains wishy-washy on if this front will push cleanly through or if it'll linger near the coast leading to rain chances sticking around through Sunday. Be sure to stay up to date on the forecast especially if you have any outdoor plans over the holiday weekend. Cooler and more seasonal temperatures will follow in the wake of this front going into early next week. Batiste Marine Issued at 1119pm CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and 2-4 ft seas will persist through late Wednesday. A tightening pressure gradient late Wednesday will lead to winds and seas increasing likely warranting a period of caution flags through at least Thursday morning. This increased onshore flow will increase the risk of rip currents going into the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week, but especially over the weekend as a cold front pushes through Saturday night. Uncertainty remains on if the cold front will push offshore or linger along the coast through Sunday. Moderate offshore flow and elevated seas are expected in the wake of this front into Monday. Batiste NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...None. GM...None. |
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