Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key Marine Forecast
| Today...East Winds Near 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Nearshore Waters Rough. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Tonight...East Winds Near 20 Knots, Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Nearshore Waters Rough, Becoming Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Sunday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast To East Winds Near 15 Knots, Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Subsiding To 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop, Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Monday...Northeast To East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...Northeast To East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday...Northeast To East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot, Building To 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Except 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop, Becoming Choppy. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday...Northeast To East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light, Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday Night...Northeast To East Winds Near 20 Knots, Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Nearshore Waters Rough, Becoming Very Rough. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 422am EDT Sat April 4 2026 Issued at 425am EDT Sat April 4 2026 Dry conditions appear well established across the Florida Keys for the first weekend of April. KBYX radar returns just after midnight highlighted a line of disorganized showers north of the Lower Keys, but that activity has since dissipated. Nighttime microphysics observations from GOES East detect lines of shallow cumulus across the Keys nearshore waters, nothing indicative of heavy showers or thunderstorms. A glace at the GOES East derived precipitable water highligheights a tongue of dry air extending south towards the Upper Keys from the Outer Banks. The Atlantic High is still in place for today, which is responsible for the pressure gradient maintaining fresh easterly breezes along the reef. The weather pattern suggests today will be slightly warmer than normal with sustained breezy conditions. .FORECAST... A mid latitude cyclone deepening over the Great Lakes will start to change the weather pattern over the northeastern US. There is high confidence this low pressure system will have enough energy to displace the Atlantic High and weaken the broad ridge that has maintained the breezy conditions across the Florida Keys by Sunday to Monday. Slackening winds does not mean the direction is likely to shift, and low level moisture is forecast to wash over the Keys through Sunday to Monday. Early next week, model guidance suggests the cold frontal boundary associated with the Great Lakes low will move into the Gulf. What remains of the boundary could reach the Florida Keys by mid week and provide a source of lift for showers and thunderstorms. A well developed high over the eastern United States would be responsible for pushing the frontal boundary south, and guidance suggests high confidence in another breezy to windy period for the Keys next week, possibly as early as Tuesday night. Models do not show consensus on the strength of these winds at this time. The spread from the NBM shows a range of over 20 mph at EYW for Wednesday and Thursday, so details are still up in the air. The good news is that model guidance gives medium to high confidence in a more favorable environment for midweek rainfall. Considering the extended drought conditions, any precipitation would be much appreciated. Marine Issued at 425am EDT Sat April 4 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a broad Atlantic high will begin to weaken and move east during the first half of the weekend. There is high confidence that moderate to fresh easterly breezes will slacken during the weekend. Light to gentle breezes early next week will freshen by Wednesday in response to a strong high over the eastern United States. A chance of showers will return to the forecast by Monday night, and thunderstorms are possible after the start of the work week. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT early this morning for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. |
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