Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sat...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers. Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers And Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Sun...Nw Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1236am EDT Fri April 25 2025 Synopsis High pressure moves offshore overnight into Friday. A frontal system approaches Friday night and moves across Saturday. One cold front moves southeast of Long Island Saturday evening. A secondary cold front moves across early Sunday. High pressure then builds in through early next week. High pressure shifts well offshore towards the middle of next week with a frontal system moving towards the local area. Near Term - Until 6am This Morning High pressure continues to move offshore overnight. Light southerly flow turns more southwesterly in response to the exiting high pressure to the east. With height rises and increasing 850 mb temps overnight, expecting overnight lows to stay mild. Lows only drop into the mid-50s for most, with a few lower 50s for eastern most sections closer to the coast. Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Saturday Friday, southerly flow continues. Temperatures will be warm yet again with highs in the 70s to near 80, particularly inland, with the cooler spots along the coasts. A frontal system approaches on Friday, leading to increasing clouds through the day. Friday night a warm front passes, increasing showers across the CWA. Some timing discrepancies still exist with the timing of the cold front, but expecting it to pass late in the day or early evening Saturday. With strong lift and some hints of instability in the available 12Z guidance, expecting a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms with showers located along or just ahead of the cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon and evening. About 0.5-1.0" are expected Friday night through Saturday evening. No major hydrologic issues are expected. Warm temps overnight Friday are expected due to the cloud cover and warm air advection from the passing warm front. Overnight lows will be in the mid-50s to low-60s. Saturday will be cooler thanks to rainfall and a nearing cold front. Highs then will be in the mid-60s to low-70s. Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday Strong upper level low approaches Saturday night and moves across early Sunday. This slowly moves towards Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Upper level ridge then builds in across the region for Sunday night through early next week. This will eventually give way to quasi-zonal flow for mid to late week. At the surface, a cold front is expected to be exiting southeast of Long Island Saturday night. Increased POPs compared to previous forecast as another trough or secondary cold front moves across early Sunday. This will be accompanied by a steepening pressure gradient as parent low deepens as it moves through Maine. Rain showers linger Saturday night and then decrease late Saturday night into early Sunday. NW winds will increase and become gusty with cold air advection. Highest instability relatively speaking will be shifting southeast of the region so left out mention of thunder Saturday night after 8PM. Steep pressure gradient remains through Sunday. With cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) aloft with upper level low moving across, some more rain showers will be possible. Models indicate mainly dry conditions but manually increased POPs to slight chance. Also went higher than model forecasts with cloud coverage with cyclonic flow aloft. Used relatively cooler Superblend for the daytime high temperatures, which will be limited to upper 50s to lower 60s with the gusty winds and abundance of clouds the first half of the day. For next week, warming trend is evident in the forecast models with the ridging developing across the area. Consistent model 850mb temperature warming by the end of each day Monday into Tuesday. Expect a sharp rising trend to daytime high temperatures each day. Much of the region is in upper 60s to mid 70s for highs Monday and well into the 70s to near 80 for Tuesday. Used specifically the NBM 50th percentile for high temperature forecasts on Monday and Tuesday, which were relatively warmer compared to NBM alone. Uncertainty grows for mid to late week depending on the evolution of an approaching frontal system. The ridging moves offshore and quasi- zonal flow will help steer this frontal system towards the region. The system may linger nearby towards latter portion of week. Chances for showers and perhaps even an isolated thunderstorms are in the forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday. Chances for rain showers forecast to continue into next Thursday. Marine A few locations near shore are experiencing gusts up to 20 kt for a few more hours during the overnight, otherwise Sub advisory conditions expected through Friday night. Marginal small craft advisory conditions are expected for the near shore non-ocean waters Saturday ahead of and with the frontal passage mainly for 25 kt gusts, with 5 to 6 ft seas on the ocean waters by Saturday afternoon. For Saturday night, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions mainly for ocean seas, mainly near 5 to 6 ft, with otherwise mainly below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. Then for Sunday, expecting widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) wind gusts for all waters. Ocean seas trend down to 4 to 5 ft Sunday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) wind gusts diminish Sunday evening with eventually all waters below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) Sunday night. All waters remain in the forecast below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) Monday through Tuesday before SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions make their return Tuesday night, mainly for the ocean. Hydrology There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine None. |
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