Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 341pm EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Synopsis High pressure remains across the region through this weekend but its center will be moving farther south and out into the Atlantic. Offshore high pressure remains early next week but a cold front will approach. This cold front will approach Tuesday night into Wednesday, then move through by early Thursday. Strong high pressure will follow from the west Thursday through next weekend. Near Term - Until 6am Saturday Morning High pressure remains across the region tonight but its center will be moving farther south of the region. A low level westerly flow will be in place. Ridging aloft approaching the region and will keep subsidence strong, allowing for mostly clear sky conditions. Across the interior, winds become very light to calm. Radiational fog is forecast along interior river valleys and outlying interior locations especially where fog occurred the previous morning. No fog expected along the coast with winds staying up too much within the boundary layer and allowing for more vertical mixing. Used a blend of MAV/MET/NBM for forecast low temperatures along the coast and a blend of MAV and MET for forecast low temperatures inland. Expect a vast range of lows from mid 40s across parts of the interior to near 60 within parts of NYC. Short Term - 6am Saturday Morning Through Sunday Night For this weekend, a ridge of high pressure will be in control, keeping dry weather and mostly clear sky conditions. With the center of the high pressure area moving farther south, a more SW low level flow will develop and advect warmer air into the region Saturday. The 850mb temperatures are forecast to rise a few degrees Saturday afternoon and maintain nearly the same values on Sunday afternoon. The high temperatures are expected to be noticeably warmer than the Friday high temperatures and will be well above normal for this time of year. Noting the forecast guidance leaning towards higher than the mean with forecast temperatures, used the NBM 90th percentile for high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday. The high temperatures will be very similar for both days despite a more onshore component to the surface wind on Sunday. Expecting a majority of the region to have high temperatures within the range of low to mid 80s for both Saturday and Sunday. The Twin Forks of Long Island as well as some portions of other coastlines have high temperatures forecast more in the mid to upper 70s. For Saturday night into early Sunday morning, with winds becoming very light across the entire region, used a blend of MAV/MET for low temperatures to better capture radiational cooling. With forecast increases in dewpoints, more fog is forecast as well including inland and some locations along the coast. Did not put into forecast yet, but patchy fog will be possible again for late Sunday night into early Monday morning for some locations with similar environment and efficient radiational cooling expected once again. Long Term - Monday Through Friday NBM was largely followed with only minimal changes. Key points: * High pressure remains in place in the area through Tuesday. * A frontal system approaches the area Tuesday night, eventually moving through during the day on Wednesday. Model guidance varies a bit with timing but frontal passage expected to move through the area by Wednesday night. Main concern in a period of light to moderate rainfall. Thunder not anticipated, but not completely ruled out. * Another strong high pressure system builds in from the west thereafter and into next weekend. * Temperatures will be anomalously warm Monday and Tuesday with highs in the middle 70s to low 80s, about 10-15 degrees above average. Temperatures drop to near normal for Wednesday. Temperatures then drop below normal Thursday and into the weekend with highs in the low to middle 60s. Marine Conditions could get close to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds for ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet late tonight on the outer portions of the zone according to latest wave guidance from NWPS. However, with winds staying near 10-15 kt and being out of the west across the ocean, opted to keep conditions below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds for the marine forecast through tonight. There is some disagreement between NWPS and Wavewatch over the forecast wave heigheights in the local ocean waters tonight and this uncertainty is another reason for not issuing SCA. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will be possible late tonight for parts of the ocean but probability is not high enough to warrant SCA (Small Craft Advisory) issuance. Otherwise, sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected across all marine zones with high pressure in control this weekend. Overall pressure gradient is expected to become relatively weak. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected Monday through Tuesday night, though there may be a few gusts on the ocean waters that approach 25 kt on Tuesday afternoon. Hydrology Total rainfall from the frontal passage next week may be 0.5 to 1", however, there are no hydrologic concerns at this time. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine None. |
New York Radar
Northeast Radar
East Coast Satellite