Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast
|Today...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt This Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...Se Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu Night...Se Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
| 554 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
High pressure over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada this morning will build across the Northeast today and then settle along the New England coast on Monday. The high will give way to a slow moving cold front during the middle of the week, which passes through the area Thursday into Friday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
724am EDT Sunday September 19 2021
High pressure over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada this morning will build across the Northeast today and then settle along the New England coast on Monday. The high will gradually give way to a slow moving cold front during the middle of the week, which passes through the area Thursday into Friday. High pressure returns to start the weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
A few passing clouds across SE CT and eastern LI this morning, otherwise mostly sunny skies today. Minor adjustments made this update to account for latest observations and trends.
Ridging both aloft and at the surface builds across the Northeast today before settling along the New England coast to start the week. North winds this morning will usher in a drier, cooler airmass with near normal highs in the 70s. It will also be considerably less humid as dew points fall through the 50s and in some cases into the upper 40s.
A few gusts into the teens this morning, but as the high builds through the day, winds will slacken and veer to the NE.
Under clear skies and light winds tonight, preferred a blend of the cooler MET/MAV MOS as opposed to the warmer NBM. Readings well inland and across the Pine Barrens region of LI may get into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Elsewhere, lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday
The high settles along the New England coast to start the week and moves little through Tuesday. This will place the area under an onshore E/SE flow. However, a high amplitude upper level ridge along the east coast and subsidence should result in a slow moistening up process. This is the only possible wrinkle during this time as moisture increases beneath a subsidence inversion. At this time, have leaned toward a more optimistic drier solution, which will keep skies mainly clear through Monday night, with clouds beginning to gradually increase across western sections on Tuesday and then expand eastward. NAMNest is particularly aggressive in saturating the boundary layer Monday night into Tuesday, but have discounted at this time.
Expect near normal temperatures during this time with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows starting to moderate a bit due to the onshore flow.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
The main feature in the long term continues to be a large digging trough and frontal system that approaches the area by the middle to end of the week.
High pressure to the east of the area Tuesday night allows for onshore SE flow which advects moisture into the region. Global models struggle to determine if this onshore flow will allow for the development of showers Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning but at the very least, there will be a potential for patchy fog with a moist BL and inversion.
The chance for showers increases on Wednesday with strengthening southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front to the west which slow down as it approaches. Models have been developing a low pressure system immediately to the west of the area over western PA along the approaching front. This happens in response to a large digging trough and associated shortwave rounding the base of it in the mid-levels. There is some uncertainty as to how the low progresses through the area as the mid-level trough seems to briefly cut-off from the large-scale flow. This present itself at the surface as a quickly occluding low that retrogrades into the Midwest. Meanwhile the cold front remains just to the west inching it's way closer to the area by Thursday.
The frontal system looks to progress enough to the NE that the front slowly moves through late Thursday and into early Friday but the timing is still uncertain. Either way there looks to be a multiple day moist southerly flow over the area allowing for the potential of persistent rain showers Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening on Thursday. The front clears sometime on Friday with high pressure building in for the weekend with a cooler and drier airmass taking over.
High temperatures for much of the long term will be around average, generally in the middle 70s. Highs will be coolest on Friday with some interior locations not getting out of the upper 60s. Lows will follow similar trends remaining fairly consistent night to night with temps in the 60s generally. The coolest nigheights will be Friday night through Sunday night with some Interior locations possibly dropping into the lower 50s.
Long period E/SE swells will produce seas around 5 ft for the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet. This should be short- lived and mainly only this morning as swells continue to gradually diminish.
High pressure over New England Monday slowly moves offshore Tuesday into Wednesday. SE flow between the high and a slow moving cold front will increase late Wednesday into Thursday. This may lead to seas building close to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels on the ocean as well winds approaching 20-25 kt on the ocean.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Wednesday. It is too early to be specific with rainfall amounts for the mid to late week frontal system, but an inch or more of rainfall is possible.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
There is a moderate rip current risk today due to continued easterly swells. This may persist into Monday with a low to moderate risk.
In addition, the combination of the E/SE swells and an approaching full moon could bring waters levels close to minor coastal flood benchmarks. However, water levels are expected to remain just below minor benchmarks across the south shore back bays of Nassau county with the evening high tides.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350-353.