Marine Weather Net

Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU

W
WINDS
5 KNOTS

THU NIGHT

W
WINDS
5 KNOTS

FRI

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ340 Forecast Issued: 807 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 552 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Evening, Then Showers Likely With Scattered Tstms Late This Evening. Scattered Tstms And Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Thu...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers In The Morning.
Thu Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Fri Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Mon...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Mon Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves May Be Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
834pm EDT Wednesday July 17 2024

Synopsis
A cold front approaches this evening and moves through the area late tonight into early Thursday morning. The front then becomes nearly stationary Thursday afternoon as high pressure slowly builds and settles in on Friday. The high will remain in control through the weekend, with a weak cold frontal passage possible late Sunday into Monday. A warm front will move through early next week.

Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
A severe thunderstorm watch has been extended for the entire area, including the marine zones, until 1000pm EDT.

Scattered to line segments of thunderstorms, locally severe remain possible, with the main threat damaging winds in excess of 58 MPH. Also a threat of an isolated tornado, and hail to around 1 inch in diameter, are possible, as the pre frontal trough moves across the region. A cold front moving into western upstate New York, and northwestern Pennsylvania will move into the region late tonight and east of the region by early Thursday morning. Once the trough moves through, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible until the cold front passes.

Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Thursday Night
A cold front just to the east of the region early Thursday morning will become nearly stationary by Thursday afternoon as an upper trough remains to the west with a near blocking pattern setting up, and the flow parallels the front. A few showers will remain possible across the eastern areas early Thursday morning. A slightly cooler airmass moves into the area, and dew points are expected to fall through the day, into the upper 50s inland and lower and mid 60s elsewhere. This drier and cooler airmass will bring an end to the heat and humidity of the passed several days.

Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
No significant changes made to the long term forecast and the latest NBM was largely used with this update.

High pressure settles over the region Friday and remains in control this weekend. The front that passes offshore Thursday will remain south of the region. High temperatures on Friday will be close to seasonable levels in the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures rise slightly this weekend with highs a few degrees warmer in the upper 80s to around 90, warmest in the NYC metro and NE NJ. Dew points in the lower 60s will prevent heat indices from rising too much above the actual air temperature.

A weakening cold front may pass across the area late Sunday into Monday, but will likely not result in anything other than an isolated shower. At the same time, the aforementioned front stalled offshore will start to make it's way back north as a warm front. This front will return unsettled weather to the area with chances of showers/thunderstorms mainly Tuesday into next Wednesday.

Marine
A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect for all the marine forecast zones until 800pm EDT.

A cold front will be passing through the waters late tonight into Thursday morning, then become nearly stationary Thursday afternoon. Winds become W to NW behind the front and ocean seas will be slowly subsiding. A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains on the ocean waters into Thursday morning on the waters west of Fire Island Inlet, and through Thursday to the east. Seas may remain elevated mainly east of Moriches Inlet into Thursday evening, and the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may need to be extended.

Once ocean seas subside, winds and seas will remain below advisory levels on all the waters into early next week.

Hydrology
Any strong thunderstorms through this evening will be capable of producing localized heavy rain resulting in a limited risk of flash flooding, mainly of the localized urban and poor drainage variety. The Weather Prediction Center has placed the area in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall through early tonight.

No hydrologic impacts are anticipated Thursday into early next week.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
A high risk of rip currents will remain through Thursday with seas remaining elevated on a SE swell of up to 8 seconds.

Climate
Daily record high minimum temperatures for today, July 17:

...WED JUL 17... Newark: 80/1968 Bridgeport: 77/1968 Central Park: 82/1870 LaGuardia: 79/1999 Kennedy: 79/2013* Islip: 75/2021*

* = also in previous years

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...
Air Quality Alert until 11pm EDT this evening for CTZ005-006- 009-010. NY...
Air Quality Alert until 11pm EDT this evening for NYZ067>075- 176-178. High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ...
Air Quality Alert until 11pm EDT this evening for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ355.