Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Around 1 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then 1 To 2 Ft Late.|
|Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Likely.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
956pm EST Monday Jan 20 2020
A large high pressure system covering the eastern two thirds of the nation will build over the area through Thursday, then retreat to the north on Friday. Low pressure will likely impact the region for the upcoming weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
Forecast on track with just a few minor adjustments to reflect latest observations. Otherwise, clear and cold conditions are expected tonight with NW-N winds diminishing and decoupling inland. This plus some snow pack inland supports lows either at or a couple degrees below MOS, with lower 20s in NYC, teens elsewhere in urban/coastal sections, and single digits inland.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Tuesday Night
Sunny skies continue, with only few-scattered high clouds mid to late afternoon and into Tuesday night. Temps should recover to levels just under mid winter averages, with highs in the mid 30s for NYC metro and Long Island, and lower 30s inland. Lows Tuesday night night should be in the lower/mid 20s in NYC and surrounding areas, and mostly in the teens elsewhere, maybe some single digits across interior SE CT and in the Long Island pine barrens.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
The long term begins on the quiet side with high pressure remaining over the region. The high retreats to the north on Friday as it situates over Quebec. Dry conditions prevail through Friday with a gradual moderation in temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be slightly below normal in the middle and upper 30s. Temperatures should then average above normal during the daytime as highs reach the lower and middle 40s both Thursday and Friday.
Confidence in a unsettled weekend is increasing, but the specific details regarding timing of precipitation and amounts are still in question. The system is currently over the Pacific is forecast by the models to make its way onshore of the Pacific northwest Tuesday into Tuesday. The shortwave then tracks towards the Plains by Friday as it amplifies. There is good agreement among the deterministic GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC as well as their ensemble means for the shortwave to become a cut-off upper low as the northern stream retreats to the north. The upper low should then gradually track towards the eastern seaboard on Saturday, and potentially over the region on Sunday. Associated surface low pressure develops across the Middle Atlantic and tracks near the region as well.
The large scale pattern is not favorable for a significant wintry event. The track of the upper low and associated surface low will be key to whether or not the interior sees any wintry precipitation. Lingering cold air inland initially may be enough to see some wintry precip, but the consensus of the guidance at this point is for the low to track near or over the region late Saturday into Sunday. Have followed closely to a consensus of the models which yields a mainly plain rain event with a possibility of some wintry precipitation inland. Highest Probability of Precipitation are currently Saturday night, but did not get too detailed with timing and specifics since the event is occurring about 6 days out.
The proximity of the upper low Sunday into Sunday night could linger clouds and precipitation through the day. All of the details should be worked out in the coming days, but it is important to note the background pattern currently depicted by the models supports a mostly rain event across our CWA. The upper low should gradually move east of the area early next week.
Temperatures Saturday through Monday should average slightly above normal.
Winds and seas have fallen below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels and will continue through Tuesday night.
High pressure over the waters will lead to light winds and seas well below 5 ft Wednesday into Thursday. Ocean seas gradually build Thursday night through Friday as a system passes well offshore. Seas then continue to build on Saturday as low pressure approaches the waters from the west. Winds gradually increase to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels by Saturday.
Widespread precipitation is becoming likely this weekend. Precip amounts are uncertain at this time, and it is still too soon to tell what if any impacts may occur.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.