Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Patchy Fog Late With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Patchy Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sat Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Patchy Fog. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then 2 To 3 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 50 Kt. Waves 3 To 5 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Gusts Up To 40 Kt In The Morning. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Rain Likely In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...W Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Wed...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
442pm EST Fri Dec 8 2023
High pressure will slowly move offshore tonight through Saturday. At the same time, a warm front will stall in the area and head northeast on Saturday. A strong frontal passage will occur Sunday night, with low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into Canada on Monday. A broad area of high pressure then builds in through the rest of next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Saturday Morning
Upper level ride will move over the Northeast tonight as the center of surface high pressure slides off the East Coast. The main forecast challenges tonight will be if there will be any fog and/or stratus developing late tonight. NAM forecast soundings show a low level inversion late tonight well inland with abundant low level moisture trapped underneath. Other models show a hint of this inversion, but not nearly as deep. Meanwhile, ensembles show high probabilities of fog and stratus, mainly well the aforementioned well inland areas. Therefore, opted to continue mention of patchy fog and increasing clouds late. This will mean that temperatures in these areas will likely drop fairly quickly once sun sets tonight, but then remain steady and then slowly increase through the rest of the night, mainly sometime after 3 am. There is also the possibility of freezing fog in the areas well north of the area, but with even more uncertainty, did not mention in the actual forecast. If this does occur, then an SPS may need to be issued later tonight.
Short Term - 6am Saturday Morning Through Saturday Night
Any fog burns off early in the morning Saturday as the lower layers warm. Weak warm advection and rising heigheights will mean warmer conditions, with highs rising into the 50s region-wide. More in the way of clouds are expected as a weak surface trough moves toward the area, but if clouds break out a bit, even warmer temperatures are possible. Saturday night will see a slight chance to low end chance for light rain with the warm front still in the forecast area. The only areas the might not see any precipitation will be eastern areas. With continued abundant low level moisture, patchy fog will once again be possible, though a bit more widespread than the previous night. Lows will also be warmer given continued weak warm air advection, ranging from the 30s well inland to the middle 40s across the metro area.
Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
A flood watch has been issued for all but the Twin Forks of LI, and a high wind watch has been issued for all of LI, along with Brooklyn and Queens. Both watches start at 4 pm Sun.
A cold front approaches on Sun, with strong moisture transport ahead of it. High pressure over the Atlantic will allow for a strong pressure gradient, so increasing winds can be expected on Sun. The upper trough is still modeled to be near Lake Erie 00Z Mon, so the heaviest rainfall should hold off until late Sunday aft/eve and night with the upper support, and only light to mdt rain for the most part during the day on Sun.
By Sunday eve, rainfall increases in coverage and intensity across the region. With the strong, deep lift displayed in the modeled omega fields, isolated thunderstorms possible. The rain tapes off from W to E after midnight as the cold front sweeps thru. There is a good chance that the highest rainfall totals end up in CT with this event due to speed convergence on sly flow.
It is important to note that rainfall timing may change depending on the exact track and timing of the sys overall, and this far out it is entirely possible. There is already some spread in the models, which is why the consensus approach has been taken attm.
Any timing chances would impact the wind forecast as well. Based on the current consensus however, peak sly winds develop Sunday eve and end with the frontal passage. The most significant winds occur as the low begins to intensify Sunday ngt. For forecast gusts, generally mixed down 80 percent of the h95 winds from the 12Z NAM12. This method yields peak gusts around 60 mph. With 55kt or higher modeled around 1000 ft, these numbers seemed reasonable.
As the sys exits Mon, gusty NW flow but speeds below advy levels attm. There could also be a brief changeover to snow, particularly across the interior, early Monday before ending. Little to no accumulations are expected attm.
High pressure builds S of the region thereafter, keeping fair weather locked in place for the rest of the week. The NBM yields temps close to or slightly below normal Tue-Fri.
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria from tonight through Saturday night as a weak pressure gradient remains in place.
Strong sly winds develop late Sunday and Sunday ngt. A storm watch has been issued for all but portions of the Sound and Harbor, where a gale watch has been issued. NW gales possible behind the sys on Mon, then winds drop below Small Craft Advisory levels on Tue. Winds are likely to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels Wednesday and Thu, but seas on the ocean may linger at or above 5 ft.
There are no hydrologic concerns through Saturday night.
Around 2 inches of rain is likely Sunday and Sunday night. Locally higher amounts in excess of 3 inches are possible. Adjustments to the forecast are possible based on changes in the overall track, timing, and intensity of the system. A flood watch has been issued for all by the Twin Forks. Widespread urban and poor drainage flooding is likely, with some areas of more significant flooding possible, including the flooding of some rivers and stream.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
A strong cold front will bring increasing southerly flow late Sunday into Sunday night. The system brings potential for minor coastal flooding with the Monday morning high tide cycle. However, the strongest southerly flow is most likely to occur between high tide cycles. Winds will quickly shift to the west early Monday morning, which will help keep water levels down during times of high tide.
There remains a large amount of spread in the surge guidance. The highest chance for minor coastal flooding at this time appears to be for the south shore back bays and over the western Long Island Sound along the Westchester and Fairfield coasts. If the higher end of the surge guidance and stronger onshore winds linger closer to high tide, then minor coastal flooding would be more widespread, and a localized moderate coastal flooding threat would exist.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for CTZ005>012. NY...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179. High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NYZ075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ331-335-338. Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ332-340-345-350-353-355.