Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Showers Late With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 243pm EST Monday Jan 13 2025 Synopsis Canadian low pressure passes north today into tonight bringing a cold front through late this afternoon into this evening. The are will then remain in between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west Tuesday through Wednesday. High pressure will largely be control for the end of the week with the exception of a weakening frontal system moving across the area Thursday. Another more potent frontal system impacts the region for the weekend. Near Term - Through Tonight Clouds increased across the region, lowered temperatures slightly. Expecting the clouds to remain abundant with the cold front passing through this evening. Still remains a slight possibility of a quick very light rain shower or snow shower late this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to prevail. Some mid level negative vorticity advection late this evening into overnight, will allow for some decrease to clouds. However, boundary layer remains mixed with cold air advection steady through the night. Gusty winds will be occurring that will mitigate radiational cooling. Used NBM range of lows, from upper teens to mid 20s for much of the region. NYC Metro expected to have lows more in the upper 20s. Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday High pressure located to our SW slowly nudges into the area TUesday through Wednesday. Simultaneously, low pressure that passed to our north moves into the Canadian Maritimes and then offshore to our east through this same period. We'll remain sandwiched between the two opposing pressure systems under a tight pressure gradient. This means NW wind gusts 25-30 mph will remain persistent Tuesday through Wednesday. Cold air advection on Tuesday will be supported by strong NW flow and a mid/upper-level trough that amplifies over the northeast on Tuesday and remaining nearby offshore on Wednesday. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will remain near freezing (32F) to the mid-20s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Tuesday through Wednesday is expected to remain dry and mostly sunny. However, a period of increased cloud cover is likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night with a passing surface trough. Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Monday The last in a series of shortwave troughs will drop across the Northeast Thursday sending a dissipating frontal system across the area with little more than some cloud cover and the last piece of some cold air before a brief warmup ensues Friday into Saturday. The mean longwave trough over the east lifts out at this time with Pac Energy briefly breaking down the ridge across western Canada and the PAC NW. The latter of which along with an amplifying northern branch trough descending south from central Canada is expected to carve out a longwave trough encompassing much of the Lower 48 by the close of next weekend. Models do diverge somewhat with the timing of a stronger frontal system along the eastern side of this trough that will move off the eastern seaboard over the weekend. The question resides is this a more progressive frontal system with the possibility of some weak frontal waves, or does a stronger low pass to the west of the area like the 00Z GFS (Global Forecast System) shows next Sunday. However, the 00Z GEFS shows no support for this deeper inland low and neither do the EPS and GEPS. Thus, see no reason at this time to deviate from the National Blend of Models (NBM), which supports a more progressive cold front moving through the area Saturday into Saturday night. Expect colder air to filter in for the second half of the weekend which looks to be the leading edge of an arctic airmass that drops south into the Central U.S. the following week. Have also maintained chance Probability of Precipitation for the weekend with mainly rain for Saturday and possibly rain and/or snow Sunday with decreasing chances. Temperatures will warm to above normal levels heading into Saturday before the aforementioned cold frontal passage brings in some cooler air Sunday. Marine A cold front moves across this evening. Cold air advection will allow for frequent gusts tonight through Tuesday. Pressure gradient tightens between low pressure well north of the waters and high pressure well southwest of the waters. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) already in effect across the ocean and is in effect through the day Tuesday. Non-ocean zones have SCA (Small Craft Advisory) go into effect starting 6pm this evening and those continue through the day Tuesday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely to continue Tuesday night through Wednesday for all forecast waters. Ocean seas during this time are forecast to be near 5 to 7 ft. Gales will even be possible for some time on the ocean Tuesday night. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to move across the waters Wednesday night into Thursday morning with sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. However, a dissipating frontal system moving through the area later in the day could produce a short period of marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions on the ocean waters. High pressure is then expected to follow on Friday with weakening winds and subsiding seas. Hydrology No hydrologic impacts expected through next weekend. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. |
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