Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt Late. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 338pm EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in the development of severe weather has increased slightly for late Saturday. The Slight Risk from the Storm Prediction Center has been expanded to included most of the area, including all of New York City. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe thunderstorms possible Sat afternoon and evening. 2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible on Sun. 3) Dry weather continues into midweek with a warming trend. Possible showers and thunderstorms and warmer temperatures towards late week. .KEY MESSAGE 1... After a hot day on Sat with highs in the 80s and 90s, an approaching cold front and falling heigheights are expected to trigger thunderstorms in the afternoon and eve. SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg and initial DCAPE around 1000 indicate an initial downburst potential across warning zones, transitioning into bowing segments as the development spreads east across the cwa. There is around 30-40kt of wind at h85 to work with as well, contributing to the wind threat. The BRN shows good shear to instability balance across most of the area, with a tendency to multicellular mode from roughly Staten Island west and east. The NAM models storm motion in the 10-15kt range, so in general the flood threat looks to remain in the minor urban and poor drainage category. Timing is mainly late afternoon into the eve, but thunderstorms may linger overnight with even an isolated severe threat continuing due to cyclonic flow aloft and elevated instability. One challenge to the forecast is whether weak convection in the vicinity of the prefrontal trough inhibits development later in the afternoon and early eve. The NAM hints at this. If this does occur, afternoon and eve thunderstorms will be less widespread and the severe threat limited. The overall pattern however suggests a more robust event, so the expansion of the Slight Risk through most of the cwa by Storm Prediction Center seems appropriate. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong h5 vort max will drop sewd thru the region on Sun, drawing the cold front thru from the N. Warm temps initially with mixing wly component winds early in the day are forecast to set up some steep lapse rates as the cold pools drops in. There are some significant differences with model timing and placement, so confidence is a bit blw average attm. However, still think isold-scattered showers and thunderstorms is a good forecast for the day, especially the eastern half of the area closest to the upper level low. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The high pressure over the region shifts more to the south Monday night into Wednesday. Ridging aloft will be strong. Conditions will be dry. Airmass gradually becomes warmer. The high pressure becomes more Western Atlantic based and weakens across the local region Wednesday night into Friday. Ridging aloft weakens as well with a shortwave trough moving in. Weak surface low moves nearby. This will make for a more unsettled weather pattern. There forecast has a possibility of showers and thunderstorms. The showers and thunderstorms are not expected to impact much overall with the warming temperature pattern for this forecast period as their temporal and spatial extent will be limited. Airmass will continue to warm and become more humid as well. Temperatures start to reach more into the 90s mid to late next week. Possibility for some mid 90s to near 100 degree heat indices Thursday and Friday next week. Marine Increasing SW flow on Sat will bring seas to around 5ft on the ocean, with winds close to 25kt as well. A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has therefore been issued for the ocean from 18Z Sat thru Sat ngt. Elsewhere, winds appear mrgnl for a SCA, so have not issued an advy there attm. Winds become NW on Sunday behind a departing cold front. Speeds are modeled to remain just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) lvls, with seas on the ocean subsiding to around 4ft. Winds and seas below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels all waters on Mon. Below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected with high pressure in control Monday night through midweek. A potential return to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions for the ocean Wednesday. Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the rest of today into this evening. There is a high risk of rip currents for Saturday into Saturday evening. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Sunday into Sunday evening. There will be increasing onshore winds and swells with relatively highest winds and swells expected on Saturday. Southerly winds today are in the 10-15 kt range with ocean seas building to 2 to 3 ft. The southerly winds increase to 15-20 kt Saturday with gusts near 25 kt. Ocean seas build to 4 to 5 ft Saturday. The winds become more westerly Sunday with less onshore component but southerly swells will remain near 3 to 4 ft. Climate Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: Friday, June 5 KEWR: 95 (2021) KBDR: 87 (2025) KNYC: 99 (1925) KLGA: 94 (2010) KJFK: 90 (2010) KISP: 88 (2010, 2026)* KISP tied their record high temperature today Saturday, June 6 KEWR: 97 (2021) KBDR: 93 (2021) KNYC: 98 (1925) KLGA: 95 (2021) KJFK: 90 (1968) KISP: 90 (2021) Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures: Saturday, June 6 KEWR: 71 (2021) KBDR: 67 (2025) KNYC: 77 (1925) KLGA: 76 (2021) KJFK: 69 (2024) KISP: 68 (2024) NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT... Air Quality Alert until 11pm EDT this evening for CTZ009>012. NY... Air Quality Alert until 11pm EDT this evening for NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ... Air Quality Alert until 11pm EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 2pm Saturday to 6am EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. |
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