Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Occasional Gusts Up To 25 Kt Until Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Light Snow In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Light Snow, Sleet Likely With Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Chance Of Light Snow, Light Rain And Light Freezing Rain After Midnight.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...N Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
| 923 PM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
High pressure continues to build into New York and settles overhead mid day Monday. Low pressure approaches from the west Monday night and weakens to a trough Tuesday into Wednesday. The trough remains nearby Wednesday, then weak high pressure then remains in place into Wednesday evening. A coastal storm passes fairly well south of the area late at night through Thursday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Friday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
935pm EST Sunday Jan 24 2021
High pressure builds into New York, settling overhead mid day Monday. Low pressure approaches from the west Monday night and weakens to a trough Tuesday into Wednesday. The trough remains nearby Wednesday, then weak high pressure then remains in place into Wednesday evening. A coastal storm passes fairly well south of the area late at night through Thursday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Saturday.
Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
Mid and high level clouds have moved into the region with a quickly flow through nearly zonal mid and upper levels. This area of moisture begins to move out of the area toward Monday morning. Winds were continuing to subside as high pressure moves into from the west. However temperatures will be slower to fall off with the cloud cover. Adjusted clouds, temperatures, and dew points through the overnight for current conditions and expected trends.
The high pressure system near Lake Ontario becomes more centered over New York state allowing winds to weaken. Quite impressive 140kt jet at 250mb strengthens to nearly 170 knots likely in response to increased ridging aloft and the persistent blocking system in northern Canada. The local effect of this will result in any cirrus to quickly exit to the southeast late tonight.
Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through Monday Night
Ridge overhead shifts east along with the surface high in northern New York Monday. The day is expected to remain clear and dry resulting from a combination of subsidence aloft and mid level RH values less than 20%. The winds will be much more manageable around 5- 10 mph with gusts around 15 mph just enough to make ambient temperatures in the upper 30s to feel like the low 30s in the afternoon.
Attention shifts late Monday to the low pressure system over Missouri and the upper level trough. This trough initiates the moisture return to the local environment aloft as southwest winds advect a residual tropical Pacific airmass into the area. Cloud cover should increase overnight into the early morning hours. Some of the short range models are indicating some light snow could be possible in the predawn hours. Thermal profiles support the slight chances of snow with surface temperatures well below freezing to begin the day Tuesday.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
Low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley gets sheared and weakens as it runs into ridging and confluent flow aloft over the local area. Models still agree that the low weakens to more of a surface trough by the end of the day Tuesday before shifting SE through PA and NJ Tuesday night, and near or over us on Wednesday. PCPN chances increase SW to NE across the area on Tuesday. Still have likely Probability of Precipitation for most of the forecast area, with lower chances toward the eastern fringes.
Regarding PCPN type and amounts, this still appears to be a light PCPN event with liquid equivalents in the order of up to around a quarter inch. PCPN types however have become more of a challenge as models have trended somewhat warmer aloft over the past 24 hours (warm nose pushing in farther north), but also trended drier in the ice nucleation zone shifting through late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Expecting PCPN to begin as snow everywhere, then as the warm nose pushes in, snow mixing with sleet for southernmost portions of the forecast area by mid-afternoon. Drier air shifts in aloft soon after this for some locations along with slight warming aloft. A snow/sleet mixture therefore expands across LI, NYC and most of NE NJ, and the drier air aloft could cause freezing rain in parts of NE NJ and some adjacent areas as temps will be at or below freezing. Thermal profiles might not change all that much in the evening, so kept PCPN types the same as late afternoon in most areas. Late at night, models show a period of moisture returning aloft, so that would eliminate the chance of rain/freezing rain for a period. With all of this considered, snow accumulation forecast still remains at sub-advisory levels, generally 1-3 inches NW of the city and up to 2 inches elsewhere. Didn't include any ice accumulations in the forecast as confidence in its occurrence is too low at this point.
For Wednesday, some models are still showing lingering lower- level convergence and moisture in the vicinity of a surface trough. Lift (outside of GFS) still appears weak and dry air will be aloft. Will go with a slight chance of drizzle/freezing drizzle in the morning, then dry in the afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday 35-40.
Moving forward, the next in the series Pac systems in the southern branch will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night into Thursday. The associated surface low undergoes rapid deepening during this time, but global models are all in good agreement with the system passing to our south. Both the GEFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble members are all clustered close to the operational tracks at this time. Thus, will only go with a slight chance of snow late Wednesday into Thursday. It seems unlikely at this time that there would be any accumulation. More importantly though, there is the potential for a surge of cold air behind the system as a piece of the polar vortex drops off to the south and into the area Thursday night into Friday. Gusty NW winds during this time will produce wind chill values in the single digits at night and in the teens during the daytime. Highs on Friday may not get out the 20s.
The southern branch returns over the weekend as the polar high gradually retreats Saturday into Saturday night ahead of the next system. There are some differences at this time with the magnitude and progression of the system with the GFS and GGEm the most progressive in bringing winter weather into the area next Sunday. For the time, due to the uncertainty, chances will be low at this time. Temperatures will also moderate over the weekend with highs into the 30s to around 40 on Sunday.
Have cancelled the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) on the eastern Long Island Sound and eastern Long Island bays as wind gusts have quickly fallen below 25 kt as high pressure continues to build from the west.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions remain in place over the eastern ocean waters until 1am EST as winds and gusts continue to diminish, with subsiding seas. All locations should be below advisory criteria late tonight.
Winds and seas increase Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens over the waters. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will be possible on the ocean during Tuesday night, primarily for the potential of a swell pushing seas over 5 ft. The swell could keep seas up to 5 ft on the ocean into a portion of Wednesday before both winds and seas increase once again Wednesday night and Thursday due to the influence of a coastal storm. Too early to be certain, but a potential of gale force gusts on all waters exists during Thursday and Thursday night. Winds and seas subside during Friday, but with advisory conditions likely.
No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through next week.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Monday for ANZ350.