Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Occasional Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers. Showers Likely Late.|
|Mon...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then 2 To 3 Ft In The Afternoon. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Rain Likely With Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then 1 To 2 Ft After Midnight. Rain Likely In The Evening. Snow Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain.|
|Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain.|
|Fri Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
| 937 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
A warm front will approach overnight, with a weak wave of low pressure moves across Monday morning. A corresponding cold front will then move across Monday evening. High pressure from the west will then begin to build in late Monday night. This high pressure will continue to build in on Tuesday, followed by weak and quick moving low pressure Wednesday and early Wednesday night. High pressure will return Thursday. A weak disturbance will push through early Friday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
1012pm EST Sunday Dec 5 2021
A warm front will approach overnight, with a weak wave of low pressure moves across Monday morning. A corresponding cold front will then move across Monday evening. High pressure from the west will then begin to build in from the west late Monday night. This high pressure will continue.nue to build in on Tuesday, followed by weak and quick moving low pressure Wednesday and early Wednesday night. High pressure will return Thursday. A weak disturbance will push through early Friday, followed by a wave of low pressure and its associated cold front for the second half of the weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
Northern stream trough digs into the Great Lakes tonight with low pressure deepening across the same area. Associated warm front will approach this morning, with weak southern stream shortwave energy allowing for weak wave developing along this.
Strengthening SE flow and lowering clouds tonight ahead the warm front and wave, with showers becoming likely after midnight from SW to NE. Overall shower activity expected to produce light rainfall amounts through Monday morning. With some weak instability advecting in on the nose of the a 45-50 kt llj to the se of the wave, can't rule out a rumble of thunder across far se portions of the region towards daybreak. Better chance likely stays over the ocean waters.
Temperatures are expected to hold steady and slightly rise overnight, reaching around 40 to 50 degree range early Monday morning. The warm air advection aloft will allow for extra vertical lift for the showers to form.
Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through Monday Night
Warm air advection continues Monday with the surface to transitioning to eventually more SW flow. A weak wave of low pressure will pass northeast of the region late Monday morning into afternoon.
A low level jet once the area gets into the warm sector late Monday morning through Monday afternoon. SW winds aloft around 3-7 kft above the ground increase to near 60 kt. A strong inversion within this layer will prevent much of this from mixing down to the surface. However, with the approaching cold front going into early Monday evening, showers are expected along it and any enhancement of showers could bring down higher gusts than in the forecast. So while winds are generally expected to SW around 20 to 25 mph with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range, there could be some gusts around 45 to 50 mph especially with any enhanced showers with the passage of the cold front.
Surface based instability appeared minimal with different forecast models so no thunderstorms were mentioned in the forecast. High temperatures were a blend of national blend of models dataset and the ECS MOS guidance, mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
For Monday Night, after the cold frontal passage, winds will switch to more westerly flow but will remain gusty. Gusts of around 30 to 40 mph still expected in the evening with possibly some higher gusts to near 45 to 50 mph with showers lingering behind the cold front. Showers end and winds diminish overnight as high pressure begins to build in from the west. Lows forecast Monday night with cold air advection will be trending several degrees colder with a range from the upper 20s to upper 30s. The winds staying will help mitigate the cooling with the extra mixing in the boundary layer.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
High pressure will settle over the region on Tuesday as a Western Canadian CP high pressure system settles over the area. The winds will be a bit gusty with breezy conditions early in the day, but the winds should diminish quickly into the afternoon as the pressure gradient decreases. Temperatures will average below normal despite sunshine with mainly lower half of the 40s for daytime highs, with even a few upper 30s in the higher elevations well inland.
Clouds will then increase Tuesday night, and will thicken after mid night as a fast and progressive upper trough approaches from the west-southwest. It still appears that the upper level energy will have difficulty consolidating along and off the coast into Wednesday and Wednesday evening. The GFS guidance has been more robust than other deterministic model camps on many of its runs with this system. But the other global guidance and much of the ensembles indicate otherwise, with a slightly more open wave in the mid levels. This should preclude any significant precipitation amounts as the lift overall with this system should be relatively weak. Temperatures will be cold enough across the entire area for Wednesday morning to be mainly all snow. Into the daytime hours if the snow cannot get any sort of intensity then even a light accumulation would be difficult as the entire area during the daytime will likely be above freezing with mainly middle and upper 30s. Guidance is not indicating strong flow across thermal isopleths at 850 mb, along with weak PVA and overall forcing. Therefore precipitation, and thus any snow amounts look to be quite light. For now the thinking is for any snow amounts to be around or under an inch, with coastal sections potentially even mixing with or changing over to light rain for a bit as complete web bulbing will be difficult absent any stronger lift. There is also the chance that the system will scoot far enough to the east that some parts of the area may only see around a trace to a couple of hundredths of total precip. Thus, unless significant errors are in the current progs accumulation totals would be negligible to none. The trough axis pivots through quickly for Wednesday night and any light precipitation should shut off towards midnight or some time during the early portion of the overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
High pressure will briefly return on Thursday providing a good amount of sunshine, at least to start. Expect another seasonably chilly day on a north to northeast breeze with mainly upper 30s and lower 40s for daytime highs. Look for mid and high clouds late in the day and into Thursday evening as another fast moving disturbance approaches quickly for Thursday night into early Friday. A burst of warm advection, especially around 850 mb could result in a period of light snow for late Thursday night into early Friday. A light accumulation with this cannot be ruled out, especially across northern areas. The coast may even go over to a light mix or rain before the disturbance pushes on by later on Friday. Behind this system temperatures warm up as a southerly flow gets established later Friday into Friday night. With warm advection clouds can be expected into Friday night and Saturday. At this point any stronger forcing will wait until Saturday night and likely into a portion of Sunday as a cold front approaches. This would bring a period of rain due to noticeably warmer temperatures. There are still questions as to whether a stronger wave of low pressure can develop along the boundary. For now believe a weak wave along the boundary is most likely, with a period of rain more likely for Saturday night into the first half of Sunday. The guidance is very divided for Sunday night into Monday of the following week as there has been a few hints of a more phased solution with more of a southern low potentially bringing up another round of rain / showers, but this solution remains low confidence at this point.
Increase in easterly flow tonight with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions returning to the ocean waters after midnight. Occasional SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts possible for LIS and S and E bays.
While most wind gusts are expected to be 25-30 kt across the waters Monday morning, low level jet will be increasing with winds 35-40 kt near 2-4 kft. With rain showers moving across, some of the low level jet will get mixed down resulting in occasionally higher peak gusts. For this reason, have gale warning starting Monday morning with some peak gusts expected in the morning and then more frequent in the afternoon and evening for the ocean, Eastern Long Island Sound, South Shore Bays as well as Peconic and Gardiners Bays. NY Harbor and Western Long Island Sound remain mostly in the 25-30 kt range for wind gusts late Monday morning through Monday night although occasional gusts will be possible for these waters.
Late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, gales still are forecast on the ocean while non-ocean part of the gales will diminish with lingering SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level gusts.
Small craft conditions are anticipated to begin the day on Tuesday for all the waters, but then winds and seas come down gradually during the morning and then more quickly into the afternoon with high pressure building. Sub small craft conditions are then expected through Tuesday night and Wednesday. By Wednesday night eastern portions of the coastal waters will then likely experience marginal small craft conditions, with the eastern ocean likely having more solid small craft conditions due to seas at 5 ft. By later Thursday the north to northeast wind will decrease as high pressure settles nearby once again as sub small craft conditions should prevail into Thursday night and likely into much of Friday. By later on Friday marginal small craft seas will become increasingly likely for the eastern ocean.
Rain amounts around a quarter inch or less expected late tonight through Monday night.
At this time no hydrologic impacts are expected through the period.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Brief and localized minor coastal flooding expected Monday morning along the south shore bays of Nassau County with the Monday morning high tides. Surge needed as low as 1/2 to 1 ft for minor coastal flooding.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 10am Monday to 6am EST Tuesday for ANZ335-338. Gale Warning from 6am Monday to 1am EST Tuesday for ANZ331- 332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6am Monday to 6am EST Tuesday for ANZ350- 353-355.