Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 347pm EDT Monday Oct 14 2024 Synopsis A secondary cold front pushes offshore early this evening. A large area of high pressure then builds in from the west through early next week. Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning Initial cold front continues to work east across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. A secondary front will quickly follow through the next few hours. This front will shift winds from W-SW to NW and usher in the coldest air of Fall 2024 to date. Some weak returns accompany the secondary front and not anticipating anything more than a sprinkle. Dew points behind the initial front are dropping into the 30s with a very dry subcloud layer. A steepening pressure gradient will also lead to winds gusts 25-35 mph and a few spots could see a gust around 40 mph. Winds should start slowly weakening overnight as the gradient relaxes. Interior locations may begin to see winds decouple and become light towards day break. Otherwise, there will still be enough wind to prevent temperatures from completely bottoming out. NW flow and cold advection behind the secondary front will lead to temperatures falling into the mid 30s across the interior of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior SW Connecticut. It is these locations where winds will be weakest and have the highest chance of seeing frost development late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Have issued a Frost Advisory for W Passaic, Orange, Putnam, N Fairfield, and N New Haven counties. Further east in interior CT, there may be some frost but winds be remain a bit stronger and temperatures may not fall as much, but some patchy frost is possible. Elsewhere, lows will fall into the upper 30s and low 40s. .SHORT TERM /6am TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Large upper low and associated negative height anomalies will persist over the northeast through the middle of the week. The axis of the upper trough begins to shift to the coast on Wednesday and may slide just east by Wednesday evening. The lower heigheights will prevent the surface high over the Plains from building east too quickly. There will also be a surface low over southeast Canada and the Maritimes Tuesday and Wednesday. The region will lie between the low and high pressure allowing for gusty NW winds to continue both days. Gusts should peak around 20 to 25 mph Tuesday. The gradient may steepen as the high begins to draw closer Wednesday leading to potential of gusts around 30 mph. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday will range from the low 50s inland and middle to upper 50s closer to the coast. Temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday will once again fall into the middle 30s inland and upper 30s and low 40s elsewhere. Frost potential looks limited inland as winds likely stay elevated.. Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Monday Key Points: * A warming trend begins Friday with temperatures returning to normal, then above normal over the weekend into early next week. * No precipitation is expected. An anomalously strong upper trough Wednesday night into Thursday morning will depart the eastern seaboard, only to be replaced by an anomalously strong upper ridge building in from the west through early next week. There are some differences with the timing of an upper low breaking off from the departing upper trough in vicinity of the Mid Atlantic states. In either case, the area still looks to be far enough north and west to keep the forecast area dry. Otherwise, a large area of high pressure centered near the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys at the onset builds east through the period. Some northern branch jet energy moving over top the upper ridge may send a weak cold front through the region Sunday night. It will likely wash out with little change in airmass. Thus, looking a dry forecast. As for temperatures, Thursday will start off about 5 to 8 degrees below normal, then rising to above normal by a similar margin at the close of the weekend. Marine Minor changes were made to the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) on the waters with the non-ocean now running through 06z tonight and the waters east of Moriches Inlet running through 15z Tuesday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts are likely this evening into tonight behind a secondary cold front passage. Ocean seas will also remain elevated. Both winds and seas subside late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Winds likely fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels on the non- ocean waters by 06z and then on the ocean by day break Tuesday. Seas will also subside below 5 ft late tonight, but likely remain around 5 ft east of Moriches Inlet into a portion of Tuesday morning. Winds and seas should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels into Tuesday evening. Winds on the ocean should increase to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels late Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected through early next week with high pressure building across the waters. Hydrology There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Frost Advisory from 3am to 9am EDT Tuesday for CTZ005-006. NY...Frost Advisory from 3am to 9am EDT Tuesday for NYZ067-068. NJ...Frost Advisory from 3am to 9am EDT Tuesday for NJZ002. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT Tuesday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ353-355. |
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