Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt, Increasing To Around 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
201pm EDT Monday September 23 2019
A cold front approaches today and passes through tonight. High pressure then slowly begins to build in Tuesday night. High pressure during the second half of the week will briefly be interrupted by a fast moving cold front on Thursday. Another cold front will then settle southward across the region Saturday night into Sunday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Hourly temperatures across northeast New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley, and interior southwestern Connecticut are a few degrees higher than forecast, so adjusted temperatures accordingly. Also, raised high temperatures a few degrees as well across these areas. Also, cut back POPs with a later onset time given where the line of showers are currently.
One quick comment here, latest NAMNest and HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) not showing much in the way of convection late today into this evening. Mid level cap and dry air in the boundary layer appear to be obstacles. This will have to be watched with subsequent runs to see if this trend continues.
Otherwise, closed 500mb low tracks near the northern Great Lakes and strengthens a surface low to its east. An associated cold front and pre-frontal trough approach the Tri-State area. There could be showers and possibly even a thunderstorm N and W of the city this afternoon with the pre-frontal trough.
High temperatures will be above normal across the area. 850mb temps are forecast to be about a degree warmer than yesterday's, but there will probably be at least a little more in the way of clouds this time around. Expecting highs within a degree or two of yesterday's, with parts of NYC and NE NJ near 90, and 80s for most other areas. This is 10-15 degrees warmer than normal, but not expecting any record high temperatures to be challenged.
There is a high rip current risk at the ocean beaches today.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Tuesday
The strongest overall lift arrives this evening with the passage of the cold front combining with some lift from aloft. This setup will bring the best chances of rainfall, and there will still be a chance of a thunderstorm with some CAPE available. Rain chances then diminish west to east overnight with the departing cold front.
The cold front moves farther offshore on Tuesday, but high pressure will be slow to build in its wake as the trough axis associated with the upper low to our north shifts through here. The cyclonic flow and some moisture streaming in from the NW will promote some afternoon cumulus development. 850mb temps cool down to 9-10C, and with a downsloping flow, highs in the upper 70s for the city, LI, and NE NJ. Lower and mid 70s expected elsewhere.
There is a high rip current risk at the ocean beaches for Tuesday.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
A fairly progressive upper flow will be featured during the period with the westerlies active across the northern third of the country. This will result in another cold frontal passage on Thursday, with surface high pressure generally in control from Wednesday through Saturday.
Global models then point toward a pattern change the following week with anomalously warm heigheights across the eastern U.S. as a highly meridional flow sets up. The greatest uncertainty lies in a potential cold frontal passage late Saturday into Sunday as a strongly confluent mid level flow sets up across eastern Canada and the northeast. The latter of which will increase surface pressures as a high attempts to build in from the north. The combination of the building heigheights and confluent flow lend to the question just how far south will the boundary be able to get. The operational GFS is on the faster side on the model envelope. Preference at this time was to go closer to the slower ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GGEM. Regardless, a 6-12 hour difference at this juncture in time is negligible.
Rain chances are limited during the period with low probabilities with each cold frontal passage as lift, moisture, and instability are all marginal.
As for temperatures, generally remain above normal through the period with the largest departures ahead of the cold fronts. Thus, Thursday and Saturday look to be the warmest days of the period with the best chance of eclipsing the 80-degree mark. Otherwise, highs will be in the 70s. Lows will generally be in the 50s to around 60, but also warmer Thursday morning and Saturday night ahead of the cold fronts.
SW flow increases through this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds expected on the ocean, and even occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for the other waters. The cold front moves through tonight, and an offshore flow for Tuesday remains below 25 kt. Seas during Tuesday on most of the ocean waters will however remain elevated at advisory criteria due to an increasing swell from Tropical Storm Jerry. Long period S-SE swells around 5 ft will then likely impact the ocean waters through mid week. Additionally, a strengthening southerly flow ahead of a cold front on Thursday will also contribute to these seas with potential SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. See the tropical prediction center for forecasts on Jerry.
Rainfall tonight will range mostly from a tenth to a third of an inch with localized higher amounts possible. Any impacts are more likely to be minor. Otherwise, no significant hydrologic impacts expected through this week.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8pm EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.