Marine Weather Net

Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON

W
WINDS
10
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ340 Forecast Issued: 318 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

Today...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Mon...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Mon Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Tue...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.
Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.
Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.
Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
420am EDT Sunday May 31 2020

Synopsis
A cold front pushes south of the area today. High pressure builds into the Ohio River Valley then south of the area on Monday. Weak low pressure and its associated warm front affects the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. A cold front will be nearby late Wednesday into Thursday, with a potential return to high pressure for Friday and into the weekend.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
With the cold front continuing its push to the south throughout the day today we'll see dry and clear conditions. The tight gradient between the low over the Canadian Maritime and the high entering the Ohio River valley will provide steady northwest winds today around 15-20 mph. The clear skies will help our region mix down occasional gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Temperatures will be quite pleasant as the cool Canadian winds keep daily highs in the low 70s

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Tuesday
The trough axis over New England extending from the quasi stationary upper level trough in eastern Quebec pivots east tonight allowing the aforementioned high to shift south into the mid Atlantic. The near cloudless sky will set up cool overnight temperatures. Min temps will be in the low 50s and 40s prior to sunrise.

A weak short wave disturbance riding the northern edge of the high moves south into New York State. The wave brings with it enough moisture to return cloud cover to the region for the day Monday. The additional coverage will hold temperatures in the low 70s and upper 60s during the day.

As the first wave exits to the south overnight Monday into Tuesday, a second weak wave moves southeast from the Great Lakes into the forecast area. The 120kt upper level jet driving this wave advects more moisture for Tuesday. Precipitable water values still only hover around an inch. This means any scattered showers that may form will likely be light in nature. Little change for temperature as areas no impacted by showers will see temperatures in the low 70s.

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
Temperatures will warm up significantly in the lower to mid levels Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Cannot rule out a few thundershowers as instability overall will increase into the day on Wednesday, with coverage questionable at this time. Another quick moving system then likely passes just north of the region with its associated cold front slated to come into the region late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Then questions arise into Thursday as to how far south the front will get. Clouds and a shower or thundershower chance could linger through the day on Thursday. By Friday into Friday night some of the global model guidance were attempting to get gradual height rises into the region from the southwest. The degree to which this occurs is even more in doubt now. Weak high pressure will attempt to settle in, but a weak boundary may attempt to get close from the north with the chance of an upper level trough lingering just north of the area. Much of the global guidance now sends another round of height falls into the northeast Friday night into early on Saturday. More substantial upper level ridging thus could get delayed into the latter portion of next weekend or later the following week, resulting in a series of cold fronts to potentially contend with for the late week period. Forecast uncertainty thus increases for late in the period.

Marine
High pressure will be building toward the waters today and tonight and to the southwest and south Monday. Winds and seas remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Monday. However, occasional near shore gusts may be near 25 kt this morning on the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet.

Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) continue across the forecast waters Monday night through Wednesday. Ahead of a cold front late Wednesday into Wednesday night seas may build close to 5 feet across the eastern ocean waters, and remain near 5 feet into Thursday night. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast waters remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Fire Weather
The region will be relatively dry with minimum RH values hovering around 30%. Lower RH values will likely be along Long Island, northeast New Jersey and the NYC metro. The limiting factor for fire spread is winds which will could gusts 20-25 but overall remain below 25 mph.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts expected through Saturday.

Equipment
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None..