Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E Around 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers. |
| Sat Night...E Winds Around 5 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Light And Variable. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers In The Evening. |
| Sun...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 741pm EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain chances have increased for Saturday, likely lingering into the afternoon, especially for coastal locations. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A complex frontal system will impact us tonight through Saturday bringing several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Severe and flash flooding impacts are not anticipated at this time. 2) High pressure builds late this weekend into the middle of next week bringing the potential for a prolonged period of heat. However, confidence is low towards mid-week with unsettled weather remaining possible. .KEY MESSAGE 1... The combination of favorable jet dynamics (LFQ) and a shortwave trough emerging from the Great Lakes will be the catalyst for a complex of showers and thunderstorms to develop across western NY and western PA late this afternoon into this evening. The complex will track east along a warm frontal boundary. While the portion of the warm front that works into our area tonight looks rather diffuse, upper support should allow the complex to make it this far east, but in a weakened state. Severe weather and flooding are highly unlikely due a more stable airmass and the progressive nature of the system. The best chance for rain will be north and west of NYC with decreasing chances toward the coast where there will be less upper support. Highest rainfall amounts of up to a quarter inch will also be across the interior. Localized higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. A few showers may linger into the morning hours Friday, otherwise it should be mainly dry. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across New England in the afternoon due to steep mid-level lapse rates and marginal instability. There is a low chance for some of this to affect CT and LI in the late afternoon/early evening. Any rain would be brief. Severe weather is not expected at this time. The associated cold front trailing from low pressure passing to the north will move across the area late Friday night. The location of this boundary and how quickly it settles to the south will be key to how much rain the area receives and whether there is enough instability for thunderstorms. A consenus forecast approach supports the boundary and developing low pressure along it to be far enough south for mainly rain. However, rain chances have increased and it will likely continue into the afternoon, especially for LI. There are solutions such as the 12Z NAM 12km and NAM 3km that keep the front closer to the area with enough instability to support stronger convection and a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall. This solution though is an outlier at this time, but subtle timing and amplification changes with the upper trough will need to be watched. Right now, widespread coverage expected late Friday night into Saturday morning, decreasing in the afternoon from north to south. Did deviate some from the NBM temperatures the next couple of days due to a recent high bias, cloud cover, and wind direction being more easterly on Saturday. Highs will be in the 80s on Friday away from the immediate coastline, but likely not getting out of the 70s on Saturday due to cloud cover/rain. Lows during this time will mainly in the 60s. It will also become noticeably more humid on Friday. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Surface high pressure drops down from Canada on Sunday and causes conditions to dry out. Meanwhile, mid level ridging begins to amplify over the Midwest, with the local area straddling the eastern periphery of this ridge. There remains plenty of uncertainty with the strength and positioning of the ridge as it attempts to build east. Some model guidance show a digging trough over the Western Atlantic may try to close off which would lead to a cooler, more unsettled pattern. Conversely, there are other models that offer shallower, more transient troughing that favors warmer weather with a quicker eastward expansion of the ridge. Adding to the low confidence is the possibility of any ridge riders coming down into the area, producing more in the way of convection and muted temperatures. NBM spread captures this uncertainty well, with 15+ degree separation between the 25th and 75th percentile high temperatures mid next week. For now, increasing confidence in seasonable summer heat returning early week, with at least the possibility for hotter weather mid to late next week, though many solutions still on the table. Marine Sub-advisory conds are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Rip Currents A moderate risk of rip currents for the rest of today and Friday with 2 to 3 ft southerly swells at 5-7 sec periods. Persisted the moderate risk for Saturday, however, it is a low- end moderate which given light onshore flow and 2 ft waves may end up being a low risk in future forecasts. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine None. |
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