Vermilion Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early This Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late This Evening. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. |
| Friday...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop. |
| Friday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop. |
| Saturday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Saturday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop. |
| Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop. |
| Sunday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. |
| Monday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. |
| Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Choppy. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 141pm CDT Wednesday April 22 2026 ...NewARINE,Fire Weather .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated rain chances are expected through this evening, and a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in place. - Some areas that receive rainfall today may see patchy fog develop overnight, particularly inland areas. Dense fog is not expected. - Warmer temperatures, humid conditions, and isolated to scattered showers are expected through the latter half of the period. (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 137pm CDT Wednesday April 22 2026 Southeasterly flow is in place across the area today around a ridge of surface high pressure centered across the Deep South. This has allowed Gulf moisture to stream into the CWA, with dewpoints at most sites about 10F higher than 24 hours ago. As a result, the mid-level dry layer of the last few days has almost completely eroded per the 18Z KLCH sounding, which showed PWAT (Precipitable Water) of 1.33 inches. A mid-level disturbance approaching the area is evident on water vapor satellite imagery. Instability has increased this morning owing to diurnal heating and continued low-level moisture advection, with values across the CWA (County Warning Area) up to the 1000-2000 J/kg range per latest Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis. CAM guidance continues to indicate an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the area this afternoon, with generally greater coverage further south and west where greater moisture and instability are present. Severe storms are not expected due to the lack of deep layer shear, but with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values around 1.3-1.5 inches (generally 75th-90th percentile), a few storms may be capable of heavy rainfall. WPC maintains a marginal risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall for areas southwest of a line from Toledo Bend Dam through Crowley to Intracoastal City. Deterministic rainfall totals in this region through tonight are generally in the 0.5-1.5 inch range, though some localized amounts over 2 inches may occur. Any higher end totals appear most likely over an area including Jefferson/Orange counties and western Cameron/Calcasieu parishes, where NBM probabilities of exceeding 1 inch through tonight are in the 40-55 percent range. However, thus far convection has been fairly muted over this region due to stabilization in the wake of the activity moving eastward across the Gulf waters. The airmass may recover in time for deep convection to develop later this afternoon, but there is substantial uncertainty in this potential. Expect showers/storms to gradually taper off this evening with the loss of daytime heating as the disturbance exits to the east. Some patchy mist/light fog may develop tonight over parts of inland southeast TX or central LA if skies can clear enough, particularly any areas that saw substantial rainfall during the day. However, this threat looks isolated and limited, and any fog/mist that does develop will burn off quickly Thursday morning. With deep moisture remaining in place and a few upper level disturbances passing through the region, expect isolated to scattered convection to develop each day through the remainder of the week primarily in the afternoon hours. Instability will be sufficient for thunderstorms, but with very little to speak of in the way of deep layer shear, not expecting anything severe. Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend, with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s by the end of the week with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Global deterministic models are in agreement that a stronger trough will dig into the central Plains to start the weekend, which will push a cold front towards the Gulf Coast. However, with upper level support staying well to the north, this front is expected to stall out somewhere around the AR/LA border Saturday before lifting back off to the northeast. This will keep the region in a warm, humid southerly flow. Rain chances Saturday will be more focused over northern and eastern portions of the region, closer to the stalled front. Mid-level ridging will begin to build back into the area starting Sunday, bringing a further decrease in rain chances from south to north to start the week. The beginning of next week will feature continued warm, humid, and mostly dry conditions across the region as the storm track stays displaced to the north. 64/Silas Marine Issued at 137pm CDT Wednesday April 22 2026 Southeast flow around 10-15 kt is expected to dominate for the next few days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible primarily today and tomorrow as a few upper disturbances pass through. For the weekend and into the start of next week, winds should be southerly at around 5-10 kt across the coastal waters with perhaps a few isolated showers. Fire Weather Issued at 137pm CDT Wednesday April 22 2026 Southeast winds have brought a substantial increase in Gulf moisture to the area, with dewpoints climbing into the 60s where they are expected to stay throughout the forecast period. This will also promote an increase in afternoon convection and associated rain chances through the week and into the weekend. As a result, fire weather concerns should be relatively low through the period, and some areas could see some modest improvements in ongoing drought conditions. NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. |
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