Vermilion Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Rain Showers Likely In The Morning, Then Chance Of Rain Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Rain Showers In The Evening.|
|Friday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Saturday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.|
|Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.|
|Sunday...North Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
|Sunday Night...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
|Monday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.|
Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400|
310 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019
Showers will continue through today as low pressure aloft advances eastward into the western Gulf of Mexico. This feature will be accompanied by a weak surface trof and a tightening pressure gradient resulting in a moderate offshore flow returning to the Gulf waters. This feature will be followed late by another cold frontal passage late in the day with rains tapering off as sharply drier air advects into the region. Northerly Winds will remain moderate in the wake of the front through Friday when high pressure builds over the region. Another area of low pressure and associated cold front will cross the area Sunday night with widely scattered showers accompanying it.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
604am CST Thu Nov 14 2019
Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic/New England ridging swwd through the warning Gulf region. In addition, a trough.weak low is noted off the middle/upper TX coast and a weak cold front is noted from low pressure over the Great Lakes through the middle Mississippi Valley to the srn Plains. Water vapor imagery shows a closed low aloft pushing ewd from Mexico in to deep southern TX. Regional 88Ds show plentiful areas of mainly light rain pushing across the region. Surface observations indicate much warmer temps than previously expected with readings generally in the mid/upper 40s and slowly warming.
Not many changes to previous forecast thinking this morning. As the low aloft opens/ejects enewd today, patchy rainfall will continue to develop/move newd across the forecast area...high res guidance indicates the rainfall expanding in coverage, especially over the swarning 1/4 of the forecast area this morning. Meanwhile the next shortwave moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains States will push the upstream surface front into/through the area this afternoon/evening. With drier air quickly advecting into the region, the shower activity should quickly come to an end shortly after frontal passage. Curious to see what temperatures will do today as cooling overnight has been fairly limited and forecast highs for today aren't much warmer than current readings...for now, will stick with blended guidance.
Surface high pressure/ridging aloft are forecast for the end of the week and weekend, leading to dry weather during that time frame. Afternoons through the weekend will feel downright tropical, with highs in the upper 50s Friday...warming to the lower 60s by Sunday. Below normal temperatures remain in the forecast with freezing temps likely for most of the northern 1/2 of the forecast area Friday night/Saturday morning...then mainly confined to the nern zones around sunrise Sunday.
Our next weather maker comes in the form of another strong shortwave digging a trough through the Rockies, helping initiate cyclogenesis over warning TX (as well as another warning Gulf low), followed by another weak front passage across the region during the early part of next week. With the airmass behind this front being more of a Pacific origin, temperatures are expected to be more seasonal to end the period.
Winds/seas are expected to increase later today as the gradient tightens behind the departing wave/weak low...looks like we could see a brief shot of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds tonight, but will leave SCEC headlines as inherited.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution from noon CST today through late Friday night for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.