Vermilion Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Tonight...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Tuesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Rough.|
|Friday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Rough.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Rough.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
633am CDT Monday May 16 2022
/issued 405am CDT Monday May 16 2022/
Short Term - Today through Wednesday
Across the northern tier of the US temps are in the 40s with upper 50s across the central US and lower 70s down into the gulf states.
Storms that developed from an MCS over north Texas last night have pushed to the southeast this morning and into this region... but as this has happened the strength of the storms has diminished. Showers are noted moving into northern Tyler and Jasper counties attm. Most of this activity will be gone around sunrise or a bit thereafter.
What's going on with the weather...an upper level ridge over the Mexican Plateau extends into the south central US. This can be seen in the sounding data and models from last eve with northerly winds aloft. The precipitation wtr has nudged up slightly but remains low... The CAPE is typical for this time of year. The other factor in this pattern is a surface high pressure to our south which has brought in southwest to west winds. The guidance is suggesting that this overall pattern looks to hold fm today through Thursday morning. There will be some perturbations moving thru the stream aloft but nothing of note or any help. Sunny days with temps around the upper 80s to lower 90s for afternoon highs and lows in the low to mid 70s.
If you are outside just remember to take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water to remain hydrated.
Long Term - Thursday Through Monday
Ridging aloft will weaken/flatten through the latter half of the week as a series of shortwaves approach the region from the west. At the sfc, high pressure ridging west across the Gulf of Mexico will keep winds southerly, allowing dewpoints to gradually increase from Thursday into Friday. In spite of the weakening ridge aloft, there will be a lack of any good forcing mechanisms (aloft or at the sfc) to produce convection and this will maintain dry conditions across the area for both Thursday and Friday. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, temperatures are expected to remain above normal, with daily lows around 70 or into the lower 70s and high temps in the lower to middle 90s. There should still be enough dry air over the region on Thursday to keep apparent temperatures from climbing too far above air temperatures, but as dewpoints begin to nudge upward on Friday, heat indices could climb to near 100 degrees.
Aloft, a trough will dig over the W CONUS at the start of the long term period. As it moves east through the latter part of the workweek, the pressure gradient over the area will tighten in response to cyclogenesis over the southern plains. This will result in strengthening winds on Friday. At this time, wind speeds are not expected to reach advisory criteria but still could be rather gusty during the day.
As the trough shifts east across the northern/cntl plains Saturday, it will lift the surface low NE and send a trailing cold front toward the area during the weekend. Global models show relatively good agreement regarding the progression of this system, but some minor differences in amplitude/strength render some uncertainty with respect to the timing of the front, with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) a little faster with its arrival compared to the GFS and CMC. Overall though, moisture is forecast to deepen and pool in advance of the front, with precipitation water increasing to between 1.6 and 1.8 inches. This, combined with sufficient lift across the region, will allow showers and tstms to develop across the area late Friday night into Saturday, with the highest rain chances on Saturday as the boundary settles into the area.
As most of the energy associated with the upper trough stays well north and northeast of the area, the front is expected to gradually stall near the coast by Sunday and linger into Monday. This will provide a focus for at least some low end rain chances to persist through the end of the weekend and into early next week. While these rain chances will be good news for an area that has been unusually dry through the spring, the other piece of good news will be that temperatures should trend back toward seasonal normals, with lows Sunday and Monday mornings in the middle to upper 60s across much of the area and highs in the middle to upper 80s.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.