Marine Weather Net

Vermilion Bay Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SATURDAY

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SATURDAY NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ435 Forecast Issued: 605 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Today...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Patchy Fog Early This Morning.
Tonight...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop.
Saturday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop.
Saturday Night...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.
Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop.
Sunday Night...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop.
Monday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.
Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.
Tuesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.
Tuesday Night...South Winds Around 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
124pm CST Fri Feb 23 2024

.SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 330am CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Early morning surface analysis shows a cool front crossing the forecast area at this time, with the front roughly located along a KESF-KDRI- KHOU line with dewpoints dropping into the 40s a few hours after its passage. A pre-frontal trough was also noted crossing the sern zones, with wrly winds noted behind it. Meanwhile, high pressure was building through the Rockies this morning. Water vapor imagery shows a minor shortwave approaching from the northwest. Surface observations indicate plenty of low cloud cover, especially ahead of the front, and while there are restrictions to visibility present, marine fog has been largely held at bay so far. Local 88Ds are PPINE.

Main concern in the near term continues to be fog potential, although with the front now crossing the forecast area, the likelihood of dense fog development is diminishing by the minute as drier boundary layer air gradually spreads across the region. Primary area of concern will be the sern zones where the lower dewpoints will be last to arrive.

As this drier air through the column arrives on the heels of a nrly low-level flow and a nwrly flow aloft, skies will clear today and remain generally clear through Saturday. Main issue through the remainder of today looks to be a round of elevated nrly winds as a reasonable gradient lingers and weak Cold Air Advection develops. Winds will relax this evening, leaving behind a clear and cooler night with lows dropping back to the more seasonal mid/upper 40s.

By the end of the short term, with surface high pressure moving east of the forecast area and a southerly low-level flow off the Gulf re- developing, low-level moisture/cloud cover will be on the increase yet again, although weak ridging aloft will preclude any precipitation development. Temperatures are forecast to gradually warm back to highs pushing 80 (mainly over the nwarning zones) with lows back in the 50s.

Long Term
(Monday through Friday) Issued at 330am CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Much above normal temperatures will prevail as the workweek gets underway. The surface pattern will be noted by high pressure east of the region, with southerly winds sustaining an influx of warm and moist Gulf air. Aloft, modest ridging initially over western TX will shift east from Monday into Tuesday, with capping and dry air aloft maintaining dry conditions over the area amid partly to mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday are expected to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s each afternoon, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

A tightening pressure gradient will develop on Tuesday, as low pressure forms over the plains. Thus, southerly winds are expected to strengthen, potentially approaching wind advisory criteria.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase by Wednesday as shortwave energy over the western US moves east, directing a cold front into the region. At this point, model guidance begins to diverge quite a bit, and forecast spread increases through the latter part of the week. The operational GFS (Global Forecast System) and Canadian models both lean toward a deeper and more progressive shortwave trough moving through the region, with most of the precipitation this week occurring on Wednesday followed by drier weather. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is less phased with northern and southern stream energy, maintaining a more progressive northern stream system (north of the region) and a slower southern stream system, that would bring a longer period of rain chances as the front slows over the region. Given this uncertainty, the NBM blend remains the best forecast option with low rain chances persisting through the end of the week, while temperatures trend toward seasonal normals as winds become northerly Wednesday night into Thursday.

24

Marine
Issued at 330am CST Fri Feb 23 2024

SCEC conditions (Small Craft Should Exercise Caution) are expected to linger on the coastal waters through mid-day before diminishing. The next round of elevated winds is set to begin late Sunday night and into early next week as the gradient tightens with lower pressures developing over the Plains.

25

NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.