Vermilion Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...West Winds 25 To 30 Knots. Bay Waters Extremely Rough.|
|Tonight...Northwest Winds 25 To 30 Knots. Bay Waters Extremely Rough.|
|Friday...Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Gusts Up To 40 Knots In The Morning. Bay Waters Very Rough.|
|Friday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Rough.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Saturday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.|
|Sunday...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
|Sunday Night...East Winds Up To 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
|Monday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.|
|Monday Night...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth.|
| Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400|
918 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021
A tight pressure gradient and good cold air advection over relatively warmer Gulf waters will allow for strong and gusty winds along with elevated seas through the end of the week. Winds will finally begin to relax Friday evening into early Saturday as high pressure begins to settle into the coastal waters. Winds will eventually become eastward by the end of the weekend as high pressure moves off to the east.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
924am CDT Thu Oct 28 2021
The large low responsible for yesterday's squall line and frontal passage continues to spin over northern AR and southern MO this morning. The gradient surrounding this low will keep winds brisk out of the northwest through the day. No changes were required to the previously issued wind advisory and gale warning.
/issued 643am CDT Thu Oct 28 2021/
AVIATION... Only clouds expected today will be at the KAEX terminal with wrap around moisture moving. However, ceilings should stay at VFR levels. Other issue will be the strong westerly winds with sustained around 20 knots and gusts to around 30 knots starting by mid to late morning and persisting through the afternoon.
/issued 418am CDT Thu Oct 28 2021/
SHORT TERM [Through Saturday night]... Upper level and surface low moving across the Ozarks this early morning will continue.nue to move slowly east-northeast through the weekend. Flow around this system will be westerly then eventually northwesterly helping to bring in a drier continental airmass that will linger into the weekend which will allow for more seasonal fall conditions.
Some wrap around moisture will likely move into portions of central Louisiana later this morning, possibly as far south as the northern fringe of Acadiana and linger into Friday. No precipitation is expected with the cloud cover, with the main affect to keep daytime highs lower and overnight lows higher than areas that see full sunshine and clear skies at nights.
Main issue for today, and again on Friday will be the potential for some strong and gusty winds. The deep low pressure system and high pressure building in from the Mountain West will allow for a tight pressure gradient over the forecast area. Along with daytime heating allowing for mixing, rather gusty west winds today then northwest on Friday will likely occur. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area from 9 am to 7 pm. Sustained winds are forecast from 20 to 25 mph with occasional gusts over 35 mph.
LONG TERM [Sunday through next Friday morning]... The start of the longterm period will consist of seasonal fall weather. Upper level ridging will spread over the central US, with a surface region of high pressure taking control of weather patterns through the midweek. Northwesterly flow aloft will keep cool air in the region with high temperatures in the upper 70s and nighttime low temperatures in the upper 40s inland to low 50s towards the beaches.
The ridging pattern gets broken down by an upper shortwave trough that swings through the Ohio River Valley and upper Mississippi Delta regions on Tuesday. On the heels of the shortwave feature will be the next upper longwave trough along with a weak cold front that will pass through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain chances increase going into Wednesday morning with
A tight pressure gradient over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, along with some cold air advection over relatively warm Gulf waters, will allow mixing to take place bringing strong elevated winds down to the surface.
Sustained winds over the coastal waters will near gale force by afternoon with frequent gusts over gale force and around 45 knots. These conditions will linger into early Friday, and therefore a Gale Warning will be in effect for these locations.
For the coastal lakes and bays, sustained winds will be in the 20 to 25 knot range with gusts to 35 knots, so a small craft advisory will be in effect for these locations.
As of now, the trajectory of of the wind will be from a more westerly direction today. This may mitigate some of the low water advisory potential, and tide guidance does not show any sites below the (-1) mean low lower water needed for an advisory.
Winds will begin decrease by Friday evening as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure begins to settle into the region.
TORNADO NOTES... So far the NWS Lake Charles has confirmed and issued a report on an EF2 tornado that occurred yesterday afternoon along and just south of the city limits of Lake Charles. Looking at Storm Prediction Center climo there is a 0.05 percent probability of a significant tornado (EF2 or higher) occurring within 25 miles of a point in southwest Louisiana during late October, or basically a 1 in 2000 chance. So this shows how rare of an event it is.
Also, looking at the storm events database from NCEI, this is the first confirmed significant tornado (EF2 or higher) in Calcasieu Parish since March 2, 1999, which occurred northwest of Sulphur in a mainly rural area.
This is also likely the strongest tornado to affect a portion of or very near the city limits of Lake Charles since a F3 tornado back on February 12, 1971.
There are also 2 confirmed tornadoes from yesterday in southeast Texas in Orange County. A write up and more information on these tornadoes will come later today as the storm survey crew continues to investigate areas further in Orange and Jefferson Counties. The same Storm Prediction Center climo holds for southeast Texas, a 0.05 percent probability of a significant tornado (EF2 or higher) occurring within 25 miles of a point in southeast Texas during late October, or basically a 1 in 2000 chance..
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...Wind Advisory until 7pm CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-041>045- 052>055-073-074.
TX...Wind Advisory until 7pm CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-215-216- 259>262.
GM...Gale Warning until 10am CDT Friday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472- 475.
Small Craft Advisory until 10am CDT Friday for GMZ430-432-435.