Vermilion Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...South Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely Early This Afternoon, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early.|
|Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Bay Waters Choppy. Thunderstorms Likely. Showers.|
|Wednesday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Bay Waters Rough. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Bay Waters Rough.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Friday...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1110am CST Tuesday Nov 29 2022
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 430am CST Tuesday Nov 29 2022
Warm and moist air advection occurring over the forecast area this early morning with temperatures and dew points rising during the night. This also can be noticed with the usual low clouds and patchy fog, along with streamer showers off the Gulf. This is in response to a robust upper level trough moving out of the Rockies and a surface low forming over the Southern Plains.
The upper level trough and surface low will move eastward today into tonight. Southerly low level jet will continue to increase ahead of this system to 40+ knots by late morning. This will allow highly anomalous moisture seen on the GOES over the middle Gulf to advance quickly into the forecast area. Precipitable water values are expected to increase to over 1.5 inches (which is above the 90th percentile of Storm Prediction Center daily climo) by afternoon.
We also will see an increase in low level instability as the warm humid air moves inland. MUCAPES by afternoon will be in the 2000-3000 j/kg range, especially north of I-10 away from the marine layer. Therefore, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase.
With the region becoming under the favorable right entrance region of an upper level jet moving around the trough, the environment will become highly sheared allowing for some rotating storms, along with favorable mid level lapse rates to produce hail.
Thus, some of the convection that becomes surface rooted, best chance of this will be north of I-10, will have the potential to become severe, and cells that become discrete will have supercell characteristics. Therefore, thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce all modes of severe weather, including damaging wind gusts, large hail, a few tornadoes, intense rainfall rates, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. During this round, large hail will probably have the highest probability.
A cold front from the storm system will approach the forecast area this evening and move across overnight. As this occurs, the scattered showers and storms are expected to form into line segments that will probably congeal into a squall line feature from late this evening into the overnight. These storms will again have the potential for severe weather, with mainly damaging wind gusts and large hail, although embedded spin ups within the line can not be ruled out. Also, training of heavy rain cores within the line could also bring about a quick flood ha12 kzard.
Severe Potential: This afternoon through tonight.
Enhanced Risk Potential (level 3 out of 5) for areas northeast of roughly a Newton Texas to Opelousas Louisiana line. Large Hail at least 30 percent within 25 miles, damaging winds at least 15 percent, tornado at 5 percent.
Slight Risk Potential (level 2 out of 5) for the remainder of the of forecast area. Damaging winds/large hail at least 15 percent withing 25 miles, tornado 5 percent.
Excessive Rainfall Potential: This afternoon through tonight.
Marginal Risk Potential (level 1 out of 4 or at least 5 percent) for areas east of roughly a Jasper to Beaumont Texas line. There is a small area in eastern Avoyelles and eastern St. Landry parishes that have a Slight Risk Potential (level 2 out of 4 or at least 15 percent.) This will mainly be for intense rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Any HP-Supercells or training along the squall line will bring quick heavy rainfall that may overwhelm urban drainage areas or low areas that still have saturated grounds from recent rains.
The rain chances will end quickly behind the front with brisk northerly winds bringing in cooler and drier air. The coldest night in this episode looks to be Wednesday night/Thursday morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s.
(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 430am CST Tuesday Nov 29 2022
Surface high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic coast Friday will turn increasing winds southeasterly, advecting a shallow, but warm and humid airmass back across the region through the day. Dewpoints are forecast to climb from the mid 40s Friday morning into the mid 60s by Friday evening. The tropical airmass will allow temperatures to climb well above normal through the weekend with afternoon highs in the upper 70s (lower 80s across central Louisiana) and overnight lows in the lower 60s. Aloft, a sprawling upper level ridge centered over the central Gulf of Mexico will maintain comparably dry, zonal flow in the mid and upper levels resulting in only scattered cloud cover.
A shortwave is forecast to move quickly out of the Pacific northwest across the northern plains and into the Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday. A trailing frontal boundary will dig south across the central U.S. but will meet strong resistance from the ridge over the gulf causing it to stall. A majority of guidance stalls the boundary further north across central and southern Arkansas compared to north Louisiana as was being depicted yesterday. Should this scenario verify, the result would be only isolated convection across the region which would be more diurnally driven in response to the tropical airmass rather than frontal lifting. Should the front stall further south, more widespread convection would be expected Saturday.
The gulf ridge will expand north across the northern gulf coast Sunday into Monday pushing the stalled boundary back to the north and lifting some drier mid level air across the area as it does so. Steady southerly flow at the surface will maintain temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above climatological norms into the first half of next week.
Issued at 430am CST Tuesday Nov 29 2022
Southeast flow is increasing over the coastal waters this early morning and with that warm and moist Gulf air is being push back over relatively cooler near shore water temperatures with mid 60 dewpoints moving over lower 60s water temperatures. The result has been sea fog especially over the southeast Texas and lower southwest Louisiana near shore waters according to satellite. However, not receiving any widespread reports of below 1 nm visibilities in that area, so no marine dense fog advisory as of now but will monitor closely. This flow will continue through the day, so at least patchy sea fog is likely to persist over the near shore waters through the day. Wind speeds will be in the 15 to 20 knot range so will continue the exercise caution wording.
A cold front will move through the coastal waters late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, some could be strong with gusty winds and frequent cloud to water lightning. The chance for storms and any lingering sea fog will end with the frontal passage.
In wake of the front, high pressure will build down from the Plains bringing northerly winds and cold air advection. This will allow for strong and gusty offshore winds. There will be the potential for frequent wind gusts over gale force by Wednesday afternoon beyond 20 nm. Therefore a Gale Watch has been issued for the coastal waters between High Island and Cameron and this maybe extended for all the outer waters later today.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ430-432-450-452.
Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for GMZ450-452-470-472.