Marine Weather Net

Vermilion Bay Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

N
WINDS
20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MONDAY

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ435 Forecast Issued: 857 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
Rest Of Today...North Winds Around 20 Knots. Bay Waters Very Rough.
Tonight...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Rough.
Monday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.
Monday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.
Tuesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.
Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.
Wednesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Chance Of Rain Showers.
Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Rain Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest After Midnight. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Rain Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
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Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400
857 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

Strong offshore flow will continue across the coastal waters today, with small craft advisory conditions possible over the Gulf waters into Tuesday morning. Light to modest east winds on Tuesday will be followed by a modest to strong onshore flow developing Wednesday ahead of an approaching storm system, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1130am CST Sunday Jan 19 2020

UPDATE... Cloud cover across southern portions of the forecast area continue to thin out as upper level trough continues to slide to the east and the entire forecast area should see sunshine during the afternoon. Despite the sunshine, strong surface ridge over the Canadian Prairies will continue to build down to the southeast allowing brisk north winds and cold air advection to persist making for chilly conditions. Only hazards today are the marine variety as the north winds make for small craft advisory conditions.

Current forecast is on track and no changes needed at this time.

AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty north to northeast winds are expected today, but decrease in speed tonight.

CDFNT has pushed well SE of the forecast area early this morning, though there are still some lingering patches of light rain across coastal SC LA per latest radar imagery. This activity should ease off to the ESE over the next couple of hours or so. With the exception of this area where some low/mid clouds remain, the bulk of the area is now clear or seeing only thin cirrus.

Temperature falls thus far have been a little slower than expected, with readings still a good 10 degrees or so warmer than forecast lows. Still, robust Cold Air Advection will continue to drive readings lower for another few hours even after sunrise, with the JAN sun taking some time to serve as an offset. On the other end of the spectrum, dewpoints are falling more quickly than most guidance, with readings in the upper 20s already nosing into Central LA.

Overall, forecast in the short term remains on track, with an expansive cold Canadian high forecast to prevail across the ERN CONUS keeping dry weather and below normal temperatures around for the next few days. TUE morning continues to be coldest of the forecast period, with some mid to upper 20s now expected over parts of east central LA and at least a light freeze expected across most areas away from the coast.

Increasing clouds can be expected starting TUE night ahead of an upper trough approaching from the west, with warmer temperatures and increasing SFC MSTR following suit on WED as return flow becomes established. Still a fair amount of spread in global model guidance on specifics like the evolution of the trough and associated SFC features, though a shift toward an inland SFC low is apparent in latest runs. At the minimum, there continues to be enough consensus to maintain high rain chances from WED night through THU, with chances decreasing from W to E THU night into FRI leading to a dry weekend.

Marine Discussion
Strong offshore flow will continue across the coastal waters today, with small craft advisory conditions possible over the Gulf waters into Tuesday morning. Light to modest east winds on Tuesday will be followed by a modest to strong onshore flow developing Wednesday ahead of an approaching storm system, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

13

NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.

Small Craft Exercise Caution until 6pm CST this evening for GMZ430-432.

Small Craft Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ435.