Vermilion Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Rain Showers In The Evening, Then Rain Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Thursday...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Bay Waters Very Rough. Rain Showers In The Morning, Then Rain Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Bay Waters Very Rough.|
|Friday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Rough.|
|Friday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Saturday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Rain Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North After Midnight. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Rain Showers.|
Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400|
325 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020
Showers will increase tonight and Thursday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the coastal waters Thursday with strong northerly winds developing in its wake Thursday night into Friday morning.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
517pm CST Wednesday Feb 19 2020
Short Term [Today and Thursday]
This afternoon's regional radar mosaic shows an area of rain ongoing across central and northern LA along a boundary at 850 hPa. This will remain the case through this evening as the boundary will serve as the primary mechanism for ascent across the region. Increasing isentropic ascent and a reinforcing cold front moving southward through the Central and Southern Plains will result in showers and rain becoming more widespread after midnight through Thursday morning. The surface front is expected to be exiting the CWA by late Thursday afternoon and rainfall chances will quickly decrease, but a few overrunning showers may continue into late Thursday evening.
Long Term [Friday through Tuesday]
Model and ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement on how the upper level height pattern will evolve during the long term period. An upper level ridge and associated surface high pressure will be over the region from Friday through Sunday morning. This will result in dry conditions and temperatures that will initially be well below normal before increasing to near normal on Sunday.
On Sunday, a trough will progress across the Central/Southern Plains and support lee cyclogenesis. As this surface cyclone progresses to the east-northeast, there could be enough support for some showers across the region from Sunday through Monday. High pressure will build into the region behind this and should result in a mostly dry weather for the middle part of next week.
Showers will increase tonight and Thursday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the coastal waters Thursday with strong northerly winds developing in its wake Thursday night into Friday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected across the entire area and gale conditions will be possible over the coastal waters during Thursday night. Conditions should begin to improve late Friday afternoon as high pressure builds over the area.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night for GMZ435-450-452-455-470-472-475.
Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6pm CST Thursday for GMZ435- 455-475.
Small Craft Advisory from 9am to 6pm CST Thursday for GMZ450- 452-470-472.
Small Craft Advisory from 9am Thursday to 6am CST Friday for GMZ430-432.