Marine Weather Net

Vermilion Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUESDAY

E
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ435 Forecast Issued: 252 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely Early This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers Late This Evening And Overnight.
Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Showers Likely. Thunderstorms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Tuesday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Bay Waters Rough. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers With Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Bay Waters Rough. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Wednesday...East Winds Around 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Bay Waters Rough. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers With Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon.
Wednesday Night...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Very Rough. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Rough. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Friday...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1122pm CDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 405pm CDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

Forecast in the short term will depend on how the disturbance in the southern Gulf develops over the period. For now will go with the scenario that system remains sloppy with best moisture plume extending well off to the north.

The upper level ridge over the northwest Gulf continues to weaken today allowing highly anomalous moisture to move into the forecast area. This moisture has already worked with daytime heating and the sea breeze to produce shower and storm activity. This activity is expected to weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Rich Gulf moisture will hang around into Monday allowing for widespread shower and storm activity to develop by mid to late morning and expand during the afternoon. Heavy rainfall will be the main concern from the activity with a quick 1 to 2 inches in a short period will be possible.

The deeper tropical moisture plume will over take the forecast area on Tuesday. The air mass will definitely have a tropical origin to it with highly anomalous moisture values. Precipitable Water values will range from 2.2 to 2.5 inches which is well above the 90th percentile for this time of year of around 2 inches, and closer to max moving averages and daily highs. Also, 1000-500 mean layer relative humidity values will be over 90 percent and warm cloud layer depth will be between 14k-16k feet, which all means that convection will be highly efficient warm process rain makers.

Right now, the higher moisture values are focusing on lower southeast Texas and lower southwest Louisiana, where also the better 85H-70H southeast flow will be parallel to the developing theta-e ridge, allowing for a possibility of training. With these possibilities a Moderate Risk (level 3 out of 4) is already outlined for that area, and a flash flood watch may be needed as we near closer to the event.

Usually in these air masses, plenty of nocturnal activity will occur over the Gulf and right along the coast. Therefore, expect plenty of showers and a few storms over the coastal waters and just inland during the overnight hours. With low convective temperatures, this activity will spread quickly inland through the morning hours and continue into the afternoon before some decrease in activity during the evening with loss of any daytime heating.

Some breezy winds may occur right along the coast, and also during any convection some of the stronger winds may be brought down to the surface.

If there is some good news, high temperatures should be a little below normal and stay in the 80s.

Long Term
(Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 405pm CDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

The start of the longterm period carries the remainder of widespread showers and thunderstorms from disturbance navigating the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether a closed low pressure center develops in the short term, guidance continues the trend of pushing this system into either eastern Mexico or southeast Texas late Wednesday into Thursday. The large northward displacement of rainfall away from the low will be the driver for rain chances Wednesday with some influence for Thursday. Global models keep an airmass with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) well above 2.25 inches (greater than the daily climo max) entrenched over the region in conjunction with rainfall for at least Wednesday, thus we can expect very efficient rain rates and flooding concerns to prevail.

High pressure ridges over the seUS and into Mississippi by Thursday. This feature and east to northeast flow aloft will help to move some dry(er) air into the region with forecast PWATs (Precipitable Waters) Thursday ranging from 1.60 to 1.75 inches in cenLA to around 2.00 inches at the coastline. With ridge and aforementioned airmass moving in from the north and east, the efficiency and northward extent of convection should be limited to typical afternoon convection along the coastline and I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday.

Longterm models continue hinting at the possibility of another inverted trough moving along the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next weekend. If this solution is correct, another period of heavy rain and widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible.

Rain-and-cloud-cooled temperatures in the 80s on Wednesday will give way to highs closer to climate normals in the lower 90s for the remainder of the work week and weekend.

11/Calhoun

Marine
Issued at 405pm CDT Sunday Jun 16 2024

A trough from a disturbance moving out of Central America will gradually move west-northwest across the southern and western Gulf of Mexico from early to mid week. The gradient between the trough and high pressure to the northeast will bring moderate to strong east to southeast winds at or above 20 knots by Monday afternoon, that will continue through mid week. This prolonged wind field will allow for a significant increase in wave heigheights and swells. Wave heigheights are expected to be 4 to 8 feet on Monday increasing to 6 to 12 feet on Tuesday and Wednesday. A small craft advisory is in effect.

Also, with the long duration and fetch of the easterly winds, Ekman spiral affects will allow for water piling along the coast increasing tide levels. Tides will be around 2 feet above astronomical predicted levels. P-ETSS guidance shows actual tide levels during high tide times staring late Monday night through Wednesday at 1.5 to 2.0 Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) which are in coastal flood advisory category, with 10 percent exceedance, reasonable highest tide levels possible, in the 2.5 to 3.5 MHHW which would be over coastal flood warning criteria.

Currently a coastal flood advisory will be in effect for Monday night through Wednesday, and portions of it, especially the Cameron Parish and Jefferson County coast may be upgraded to a coastal flood warning as we get closer to the event.

Deep moisture will also be associated with this system that will bring widespread shower activity across the coastal waters through mid week.

NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1am Tuesday to 4pm CDT Wednesday for LAZ073-074-252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1am Tuesday to 4pm CDT Wednesday for TXZ615.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Monday to 7am CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.