Marine Weather Net

Vermilion Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUESDAY

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUESDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ435 Forecast Issued: 358 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
Tonight...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.
Tuesday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Bay Waters A Light Chop Decreasing To Smooth In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.
Wednesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Rough. Chance Of Rain Showers.
Wednesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Rain Showers Likely.
Thursday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Chance Of Rain Showers In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Rain Showers In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Rain Showers.
Friday...North Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.
Friday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.
Saturday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.
Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.
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Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400
358 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

Offshore flow will weaken this evening as high pressure builds across the region. Seas will follow overnight. Onshore flow will return tomorrow afternoon as the high moves east of the area, This offshore flow will strengthen Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure develops over Texas. The low will drag our next cold front through the coastal waters Wednesday afternoon and evening with another round of elevated northerly flow forecasted behind it. Winds will ease by Friday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
527pm CST Monday Nov 30 2020

Despite plenty of sunshine this afternoon, temperatures have remained in the low to mid 50s thanks to brisk cold air advection in the wake of yesterday's cold front. A surface high continues to drift across central Texas this afternoon and is expected to become centered nearly overhead later tonight allowing winds to calm. The ideal radiational environment is expected to result in the area's first freeze of the season. Guidance has been trending lower with overnight lows tonight with the bias corrected Euro bringing Alexandria all the way down to 19. The official forecast is above nearly all of the latest guidance runs across central Louisiana as those kinds of extremes rarely pan out even under favorable conditions. Lows along the I-10 corridor have been much more consistent with temperatures touching or just below freezing for four or so hours early tomorrow morning. Unprotected crops and sensitive vegetation will likely be killed. Exposed pipes should also be protected. However, running water is generally not necessary for underground or insulated pipes.

The surface high will shift east of the area by tomorrow afternoon, turning winds out of the southeast. As the relatively warm, moist air begins to lift back into the region late in the day, a wide spread in overnight lows are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the gulf airmass will keep lows near the coast in the low to mid 40s while parts of central and northern Louisiana, still in the continental airmass, will once again flirt with freezing.

A shortwave digging south from Canada into the plains Tuesday will induce a surface low and a trailing cold front that will swing through the area Wednesday. The orientation of the front, good moisture return ahead of it and the still saturated ground from last weekend's thorough soaking will result in a low end chance of flash flooding and WPC has included the area in their day 3 marginal risk area. There are some timing differences with regards to exactly how fast the front will push through the area with the Euro notably slower than much of the other guidance. As this appears to be an outlier at present, kept only token 20 PoPs across acadiana Thursday although this will be removed should the Euro accelerate the front in future runs.

Decent cold air advection behind the front Thursday into Friday with temperatures running below normal into next weekend.

Marine Discussion
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8am CST Tuesday for LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8am CST Tuesday for TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ450-452- 455-470-472-475.

Small Craft Exercise Caution until midnight CST tonight for GMZ435.