Vermilion Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters A Light Chop Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Evening. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Friday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Rough. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Rough. Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Rough Decreasing To A Light Chop After Midnight.|
|Monday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Rain Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Rain Showers In The Evening.|
Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400|
538 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020
Light southwest winds will shift north to northeast tonight as a cold front moves through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will increase as the front moves through, with offshore flow strengthening in its wake. Moderate to strong offshore flow can be expected through Friday, with winds turning back to the southeast on Saturday as the surface high slides east. Another front is expected to move through the area during the weekend, bringing another round of showers and storms.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
656pm CDT Thu April 9 2020
UPDATE... Have extended Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97 east and south to include the remainder of Southeast Texas and parts of Central and Southwest Louisiana, basically west of a Rapides to Cameron line. Conditions are favorable for summertime type pulse severe storms with large hail and downburst winds to develop over the immediate forecast area through shortly after the loss of daytime heating. Also, bow echo severe feature in Houston's area is looking like it will hold together and move in later this evening with damaging winds, large hail, and even a spin up or two along the segmented bow features. The watch is out through 10/03Z or 10 pm local time. Grids and products have been updated.
, some of which could be strong to severe,
SYNOPSIS... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97 has been issued this afternoon for all of SE TX with the exception of Jefferson and Orange Counties. Regional radar mosaic shows convection progressing quickly east toward SE TX. Some isolated showers and storms have also begun developing near the Lakes region ahead of the main cluster.
This activity was occurring in concert with shortwave energy crossing the region and the development of surface low pressure along a frontal boundary across TX. This front has been nearly stationary acrs cntl LA into E cntl TX through the day. Ahead of the boundary, considerable warming has been ongoing as enough sun has filtered through thin high clouds, allowing temperatures to climb into the middle and upper 80s across the area.
HiRes progs and CAM guidance show convection progressing east acrs SE TX and into SW LA through the evening. Low level warming has been sufficient to strengthen instability across the region, and this, combined with steep midlevel lapse rates and deep layer shear, will maintain an environment conducive to strong to severe convection through this evening, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threats. Convection could begin to weaken some by late evening as instability begins to diminish.
Convection will continue to move east across southern LA overnight, as the surface low slides east. In the wake of the low and its trailing cold front, winds will shift northeast, bringing a cooler airmass into the region. By early Friday morning, temperatures should cool into the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Very subtle mid level ridging will translate over the region Friday, while surface high pressure builds south and east across the southeast CONUS. Thus, cooler and drier conditions will continue through the day Friday, and with highs only reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Closed upper low over CA will remain more or less anchored in place through Friday, before finally shifting east on Saturday. The low will transition into an open wave by Saturday night, as it ejects into the southern plains while assuming a neutral tilt. Moisture will rapidly deepen again on Saturday with low level flow becoming southerly as the surface high moves east, while aloft strengthening southwesterly flow spreads into the region. Precip water values will approach max values for this time of year by Sunday morning (1.8 - 2.0 inches). In addition to this, instability is expected to increase, with mid and low level jet dynamics and deepening shear setting up favorable conditions for a significant severe weather threat from late Saturday into Sunday.
Showers and tstms will begin to increase across TX Saturday, spreading into the area by late afternoon. becoming more nmrs to widespread overnight and into Sunday. Storms that develop will be capable of producing all modes of severe weather, although shear profiles and wind fields suggest the primary threats will be damaging winds and tornadoes. With unusually high moisture over the region, heavy rainfall will also accompany some storms, and localized excessive rainfall and flooding will be possible.
The front is expected to sweep through the area late Sunday, with high pressure building into the region by early next week. Much cooler and drier weather can be expected, with lows possibly falling into the middle 40s across our northern zones by Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Aftn highs both days are expected to range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
Light SW winds will shift N to NE tonight as a cold front moves through the region. Showers and tstms will increase as the front moves through, with offshore flow strengthening in its wake. Exercise caution conditions are expected to develop over the coastal waters tonight. Moderate to strong offshore flow can be expected through Friday, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters beyond 20 NM during the day. Winds will shift back to the SE on Saturday as the surface high slides east.
Another front will cross the region Saturday into Sunday, bringing another chance for showers and storms, and some storms could be strong. Winds will shift NW in the wake of the front, then gradually toward the northeast by early next week.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7am to 4pm CDT Friday for GMZ470-472- 475.
Small Craft Exercise Caution from 4am CDT Friday through Friday morning for GMZ470-472-475.
Small Craft Exercise Caution from 4am CDT Friday through Friday afternoon for GMZ450-452-455.