Marine Weather Net

Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUE

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ137 Forecast Issued: 931 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt This Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To Choppy This Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late This Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms This Afternoon.
Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Evening. Waves Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.
Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight.
Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves Light Chop.
Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Fri Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
937am EDT Monday May 27 2024

Synopsis
A cold front will then move through tonight or Tuesday. The next front passes late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

Near Term - Today
As of 940am Mon... - Severe thunderstorm risk through the day

- Elevated heat risk this afternoon

A complicated forecast is on the table today, with a conditional higher end severe weather potential still apparent.

The small MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) that moved through ENC last night has moved offshore and weakened. In its wake, an outflow boundary has been laid out that essentially stretches west to east along the NC/SC state line, and is acting more like a warm front. Meanwhile, an expansive MCS continues to move through the Appalachians, with the strongest part of the line moving through GA and into western SC. Increasing southerly flow, and warm/moist advection ahead of the MCS, appears to be supporting scattered elevated convection north of the above- mentioned outflow boundary/warm front over central NC and the coastal plain. As the southerly flow strengthens, the outflow/warm front should lift north, with the morning convection also lifting north into Virginia. Best forcing should keep convection focused just to our west/NW through at least mid- morning. There's still some potential, though, especially as WAA increases overhead. Additionally, if any morning convection can become surface- based, there would be a tendency to turn more right with time, potentially glancing our area.

Attention then turns to the west where the ongoing, and expansive, MCS is trekking east across the Appalachians. Recent 06z-09z short- term guidance remains mixed on how the ongoing MCS will evolve as we move through the day. Warming cloudtops across the northern end of the MCS is suggestive of a weakening trend. However, the southern end of the MCS still appears very healthy.

East of the MCS, short-term guidance is insistent on increasing southerly flow leading to boundary layer recovery/moistening beneath steep mid-level lapse rates through this evening, supporting moderate to strong destabilization. SREF probability guidance gives a 70% chance of MLCAPE exceeding 2000 j/kg, with some deterministic guidance indicating values as high as 3000 j/kg. The magnitude of instability is noteworthy, especially in tandem with 40-50kt of deep layer shear forecast. At face value, this would be supportive of some higher-end severe weather potential (ie. golf ball, or larger, hail and 60-70+ mph wind gusts). That said, there are still some uncertainties with what impact the upstream MCS, and any morning convection, will have. We'll continue to message the higher end potential, but also continue to note that there is more uncertainty than normal. Lastly, while the highest risk looks to be wind and hail. 0-1km SRH is forecast to top out around 100-150 m2/s2 which would support a tornado risk, especially where/if supercells develop. This risk could be maximized along any residual boundaries and/or the afternoon seabreeze. There appears to be a focused area from the coastal plain northeast through the Albemarle Sound vicinity where guidance is hinting at the greatest tornado potential.

Stay tuned for updates through the day on this ever-evolving situation.

Thunderstorms aside, hot temperatures and dewpoints in the 70s will lead to an elevated heat risk, with a "feels like" temperature closer to 100 degrees inland.

Short Term - Tonight
As of 230am Monday... - Continued strong/severe thunderstorm potential overnight

An unstable airmass will remain in place through the night as we remain in a southwesterly flow regime aloft. It's unclear how much convection will be ongoing through the night, as any daytime convection will likely play an important role in where storms exist through the night. However, barring widespread convection during the day today, there should still be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms overnight ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Stay tuned for updates on this risk through the night. Otherwise, it will be a very mild night.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
As of 0400 Monday...Long term opens up with showers associated with lingering front Tues and then clearing through the week as cool high pressure builds in.

Tuesday...Cold front lingers near the coast through the day Tues as the base of the upper trough approaches from the NW. Showers confined to the coast early Tues with chances increasing toward the HWY17 corridor in the afternoon as seabreeze inches inland. PoPs decrease from W to E behind the front which is expected to fully push offshore through the evening, briefly turning winds more Nerly. MaxTs in upper 80s most, upper 70s to low 80s beaches.

Rest of Workweek...Upper trough persists with shortwaves passing through the base of the trough Wednesday and again on Thursday with weak SFC trough developing inland behind the front. This troughing inland will delay the arrival of the SFC high from the NW, keeping temps fairly warm Wed. Temps cool end of the week as the high pressure begins spilling over the area, MaxTs in upper 70s, MinTs in the 50s. Forecast remains dry through this period.

Weekend...Upper trough swings through the East Coast and offshore with SFC almost directly overhead Saturday morning pushing offshore through the weekend. Get back to warm Serly flow regime early next week ahead of the next front.

Marine
SHORT TERM Through Tonight
As of 940am Mon... - Elevated winds and seas this afternoon into tonight

- Increased thunderstorm risk through tonight

Latest obs show S/SW winds 5-15 kt with seas around 2 ft. Southerly flow will steadily increase through the day, peaking this afternoon and this evening at 15-25kt. Confidence remains high enough to continue with a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to cover the 25kt and 4-6ft seas potential. Additionally, confidence has increased in 25kt winds occurring for a time across all waters, so with this update I've added the Neuse, Bay, Pungo, and Pamlico Rivers to the SCA. As a cold front approaches tonight, the gradient may relax enough to keep the winds below 25kt overnight, but we'll continue to re- evaluate this potential and adjust the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headline as necessary. A round, or two, of thunderstorms is possible through tonight. Where thunderstorms occur, there is the potential for 40-50kt gusts, hail, and waterspouts.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
As of 0400 Monday...A front lingers near the coast through the day Tuesday before finally pushing offshore overnight/early Wed. Showers and tstorms possible. SWerly winds 10-15G20kt. Winds briefly turn Nerly behind the front early Wednesday before becoming SWerly again as SFC trough approaches and moves through Wednesday night, turning winds Nerly for the remainder of the work week. Seas generally falling through the week; 2-4ft Tues, 2-3ft Wed, 1-3ft late week.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for AMZ131-136-137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to 4am EDT Tuesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-150. Small Craft Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to 6am EDT Tuesday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154-156-158.