Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
| Today...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt Late This Morning And Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop Late This Morning And Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers This Morning, Then Showers Likely This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Ne Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Waves Choppy. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Waves Rough. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Waves Rough. Rain Likely. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Waves Rough. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Rough, Diminishing To Choppy After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening. |
| Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 330am EDT Tuesday September 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have converted gale watches to warnings, and started headlines 6-12 hours earlier with earlier onset of strong winds expected. Issued Coastal Flood Watch for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Limited thunder chances to OBX and Gulf Stream waters Tuesday night and beyond. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Large and slow moving coastal low to impact ENC with periods of rain, strong winds, and coastal flooding mid to late week. Marine ale force winds and very dangerous high seas mid through late week. KEY MESSAGE 1...A complex and initially disorganized surface and upper level pattern today will begin to consolidate into a notable East Coast coastal low mid to late-week with a long duration of strong winds, very high seas, and coastal flooding across the OBX and adjacent coastal waters, sounds, and rivers. Currently, ENC remains wedged between two systems, with an upper low and cold front to the north and west, while weak coastal troughing off the coast. The cold front will continue to slowly sag south from Virginia into North Carolina and strengthen nerly flow over the next 12-24 hours. Periods of showers will break out today as vorticity advection slowly increases with fgen banding aloft leading to the rounds of showers. A few storms may develop as well, though with weak instability present due to widespread cloudiness, the thunder threat is minimal and certainly no strong to severe expected. Late tonight into Wednesday morning, the above- mentioned weak low is then forecast to deepen along the consolidating, and strengthening, frontal/baroclinic zone off the East Coast. 22/00Z model suite has trended quicker with pressure falls and resultant strengthening northeasterly winds, with gusty winds becoming gales as early as early Wednesday morning for northern coastal areas and quickly spreading south through the afternoon. Confidence continue to increase regarding a sub-1000mb low developing offshore during this time, and this is strongly supported by deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning guidance. Because of the blocky nature of the upper level pattern over the Atlantic, the low will be slow moving and meander about off the Mid Atlantic coast through late in the week, and thus a prolonged duration of high winds on the coast will lead to high impacts regarding coastal flooding on the OBX. Periods of rain, some heavy at times, may lead to rainfall totals of 2-3" across parts of the area, though with this rain being drawn out over several days (Tuesday through Thursday), significant rainwater flooding is not expected at this time. The strongest winds and greatest risk of coastal impacts is expected Thursday into Friday, especially along the OBX. Persistent northeasterly winds coupled with a longer fetch across the Atlantic should support long-period swell of 10-13s and seas of 10-16+ ft leading to breaking wave heigheights of over 10 ft for beaches from Duck to Cape Lookout. Not only will this create dangerous surf conditions, but this will also present a risk of beach erosion, ocean overwash at vulnerable locations, and coastal flooding (both soundside and oceanside), with the potential for significant impacts on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands where a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued. Large battering waves may last into the weekend even as winds diminish due to the low potentially retrograding towards the Mid Atlantic coastline to the north of ENC, as the AIFS and a decent handful of ECM ensembles indicate. The strong winds on the OBX may eventually warrant Wind Advisory issuance on Thursday and potentially into Friday. Marine Nerly winds will increase through today and into tonight as low pressure begins to take shape offshore along the cold front that drops south. Speeds of 10-20 kt today increase to 15-25 kt tonight along with building seas of 6+ ft tonight. Outlook (Wednesday through Sat): A notable coastal low is forecast to impact the area mid to late week with a period of hazardous winds and seas. Confidence continues to increase in widespread gale- force winds for the waters and sounds, along with Alligator River, and have thus issued gale warnings for these zones beginning as early as early Wednesday morning, while SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has been issued for the inland rivers (Pamlico and Neuse, along with their tributaries). At the peak, the central and northern coastal waters (nearshore and outer along with Eastern Pamlico Sound) may see gusts of 40-45kt with the most likely timing of highest winds on Thursday. Additionally, very highs seas will peak at 10-15 ft for the nearshore waters, and 15-20 ft for the offshore waters. A long duration event is expected, and while gales are expected to finally dimish Thursday night through Friday, large dangerous seas are expected to linger through the weekend, as the large area of low pressure begins to retrograde towards the Mid Atlantic coast north of ENC. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine Gale Warning from 7am Wednesday to midnight EDT Thursday night for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 7am Wednesday to 6am EDT Friday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory from 4am Wednesday to 8am EDT Friday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 7am Wednesday to 6pm EDT Friday for AMZ150- 152-180-182. Gale Warning from 2pm Wednesday to 6pm EDT Friday for AMZ154(Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet)- 184-186. Gale Warning from 2pm Wednesday to midnight EDT Thursday night for AMZ156-158-188. |
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