Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late This Evening And Overnight.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. Showers And Tstms Likely In The Evening, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Tstms Likely. Showers Likely.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Diminishing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. Showers Likely In The Morning. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
426pm EDT Wednesday July 6 2022
A series of weak cold fronts will move into the area late week and into the weekend bringing periods of unsettled weather. Strong cold front pushes through by Sunday bringing a reprieve from the sultry and unsettled weather pattern.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
As of 400pm Wed...Very hot conditions will continue through the rest of the afternoon and into this evening as temps are approaching 100 degrees across the coastal plain, and heat indices are 105-110 across the forecast area. Have extended the Heat Advisory through 8 pm to account as temps will be slow to fall this evening.
The prospect of severe thunderstorms remains a large question mark this evening. There has been slightly drier air than expected over the area today, likely due to a slightly more westward component to the winds. Though convection is currently firing across the NC/VA piedmont, this activity will struggle to make it the ENC coastal plain before loss of daytime heating this evening. There still is some chance of seeing a strong to severe thunderstorm move into the area this evening, but that threat looks minimal at this juncture.
If convection does make it to Eastern NC this evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger through the night, but otherwise conditions should remain dry. With breezy winds continuing through the night, very little cooling is expected and lows will only drop to the upper 70s to low 80s.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through 6pm Thursday
As of 400pm Wed...Very similar conditions are expected tomorrow with high pressure offshore and a weak stalled boundary to the north in VA. The main expected difference tomorrow will be shortwave energy moving overhead in the afternoon, and a slightly more moist atmosphere, which together should be enough to overcome any inhibition for convective initiation. Strong heating will allow for significant instability to develop by late morning, which will also coincide with 20 kts to perhaps 30 kts of deep layer shear. This should all come together to produce rapid convective initiation by early afternoon, and include a threat for severe thunderstorms (likely in the form of damaging wind gusts), as well as the potential for flash flooding (due to high PWATs (Precipitable Waters) and very heavy rain rates).
With very hot conditions and high humidity expected again, a Heat Advisory has been issued for all mainland areas. High temps are expected to reach the low to mid 90s, and with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s expected (potentially almost 80 along the coast), heat indices will again reach 105 to 110 degrees.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday
As of 400pm Wed...Showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast through first half of the weekend as a very moist and unstable airmass prevails across the region through the rest of the week. Cooler and drier air mass moves in for the second half of the weekend into early next week.
Thursday Night through Saturday...Period of hot and sultry conditions will cont to be in place as ENC is under broad nwrly flow aloft, but at the surface flow is swrly bringing very moist and unstable atms to the region. This pattern will be conducive to afternoon diurnal thunderstorms, though also potential overnight MCS activity as atms will cont to be quite unstable through the overnight periods, and thus have high probability of precipitation each night through Saturday. Record or near-record high PW's are forecast through this period, with readings of 2.25-2.5", certainly at or above the avg mean max for early July. Severe threat will be in place each day, as aforementioned shortwave energy provides marginal shear parameters, though instability will be quite high. With the high PW air mass in place, flooding rains are possible as rainfall rates will be quite high in thunderstorms. Highs through the rest of the week cont to push above 90 inland, with mid 80s along the beaches. Some marginal heat adv conditions each afternoon as TD's will range from 75-80.
Sunday through Wednesday...Strong cold front is forecast to push through by Sunday, ending the unsettled weather and bringing a welcome reprieve from the hot and sultry conditions. Highs should be knocked down into the 80s with lower humidities. Nigheights will cool down into the low/mid 60s inland with low 70s beaches.
SHORT TERM /Through Tomorrow/... As of 400pm Wed...Moderate SW winds will continue through the period as the gradient remains pinched with a stalled front to the north. Winds across the coastal waters will at times gust to 25 kts through tomorrow, but given the marginal nature of this threat, will hold off on issuing any Small Craft Advisories. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft through the period.
LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/... As of 4pm Wed...Swrly flow will inc somewhat Thu/Fri as gradient increases and weak cold front/low pressure to the north strengthen the winds. Winds inc to 20-25 kt late Thur, and remain in this range through Fri. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may eventually be needed for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Seas generally 3-5 ft through Sat, though some 6 ft sets will develop from time to time through early weekend. Cold front moves through by Sat night or early Sun, with nerly winds developing but should be sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) (10-20 kt).
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205.
Heat Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.