Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt Late. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Rough. A Chance Of Showers Until Early Morning, Then Showers Likely Late.|
|Thu...S Winds 25 To 35 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Rough. Showers With Isolated Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Sat...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves Flat.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Mon...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se. Waves Flat. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
709pm EST Wednesday Jan 23 2019
Synopsis: A cold front will approach from the west tonight into Thursday, then move offshore Thursday night. High pressure builds in from the west by Friday into Monday. Another cold front will approach the area by mid next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
As of 700pm Wednesday...No minor changes with this update, besides minor tweaks to reflect current trends. Radar is showing a mix of light rain moving onshore; mostly along the coastal counties, along with chaff. Will continue the mention of slight to widely scattered light showers for the next hours hours, then Probability of Precipitation increases as the LLJ ramps up after midnight as better lifts begins to work in from the W ahead of front. Kept probability of precipitation in low chance to slight chance range thru 06z then gradient ramp up to categorical deep inland and chance far E late. Mdls show very little if any instab thru overnight so kept as rain shower for now. S winds will be quite gusty all areas espcly late as low level jet develops. Extremely mild lows in the 55 to 60 degree range expected
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through 6pm Thursday
As of 230pm Wednesday...A bevy of impacts will be possible Thursday morning into the afternoon ahead of a cold front. Winds will be very strong out of the SSW for the first half of the day with wind gusts of 40-50 mph likely along the Outer Banks and coastal Carteret and Mainland Dare counties. A wind advisory has been issued for these areas. An expansive area of prefrontal rain and convection also appears likely, which will lead to 1"-1.5" of rain, with the heaviest amounts along the coast. Although instab will remain quite weak a few thunderstorms will be possible and given strength of low level jet (60+ knots at 925mb) stronger convective elements will have potential to produce damaging winds. Will maintain categorical PoPs for the morning hours, and then gradient end probability of precipitation from W to E thru the afternoon as deeper moisture slides offshore. Temperatures will be very warm for most of the day, with readings approaching 70 inland
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday
As of 3pm Wed...Drier and colder air return for Friday through the weekend. Rain chances increase by Tuesday into midweek as a weak low and cold front approach the area.
Friday through Sunday...Behind exiting storm system and cold front, a deep longwave trough will anchor itself over the most of the CONUS centered over the Midwest and Deep South. Arctic cold front, albeit modified, will bring cold temps back into E NC with near to slightly below climo temps, with highs expected in the 45-50 degree range both Fri and Sat. Good radiational cooling expected, with coldest readings on Fri night in the low/mid 20s away from the beaches, and in the low 30s on the beaches. Latest model trends don't show as strong of a cold air blast, and heigheights will begin building by Sunday and as a result temps climb back to climo, with afternoon highs 50-55 degrees in southwest winds though continued mostly sunny skies.
Monday through Tuesday...23/12Z forecast guidance has continued trend on ridging through Monday and therefore lesser chances of coastal storm development and therefore continued dry forecast. By Tuesday however, reinforcement of arctic airmass centered across the upper midwest will send a shortwave and cold front towards the region again. A weak area of low pressure is expected to track somewhere up the east coast on Tuesday ahead of the approaching cold front. Will continue the trend of chance Probability of Precipitation on Tuesday, as ECMWF continues to be most consistent and has support from the CMC, though GFS continues to be a drier outlier. Temperatures through this period will be milder, with highs mostly in the 50s, and possibly some low 60s on Tuesday. Lows will be near to a bit above avg.
Wednesday...Next arctic cold front will push through by mid week with a return to below climo temps and dry weather.
Short Term /Through THursday/... As of 700pm Wednesday...Winds are starting to increase across the southern waters.
Prev Dis...Very dangerous boating conditions develop tonight and cont Thu ahead of a cold front. S winds will ramp up 25 to 35 kts tonight and then expect SSW winds to peak 30 to 40 kts Thu with some gusts approaching 50 kts. Have Gale warnings developing all waters tonight and cont most of Thu. Winds will begin to shift to the W and gradient diminish late Thu as front reaches coast. The strong winds will lead to seas building to 9 to 13 feet late tonight then peaking at 12 to 20 feet Thu...highest outer central waters.
Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 3pm Wed...Winds turn to the NW at 10-20 kts behind the front Thursday night, and then slowly diminish a bit more to 10-15 kt Fri through Fri night. Winds then back to SW but will remain light on Sat. Seas will slowly subside to less than 6 feet by late Friday afternoon into early Fri evening
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 300am Wed...Strong winds on Thursday will lead to high water levels on the soundside of the Outer Banks north of Cape Hatteras, where inundation up to 1 foot will be possible. High surf is expected across the southern facing beaches with minor beach erosion possible
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 4pm EST Thursday for NCZ047-095-103-104.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8am to 5pm EST Thursday for NCZ103.
High Surf Advisory from 5am Thursday to 1am EST Friday for NCZ095-103-104.
High Surf Advisory from 8am to 3pm EST Thursday for NCZ098.
Gale Warning from 5am to 2pm EST Thursday for AMZ136-137.
Gale Warning from 1am to 7pm EST Thursday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound).
Gale Warning from 4am to 4pm EST Thursday for AMZ130-131.
Gale Warning until 7pm EST Thursday for AMZ152-154-156-158.
Gale Warning from 1am to 4pm EST Thursday for AMZ150