Marine Weather Net

Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SAT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SAT NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ137 Forecast Issued: 715 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely. A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.
Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Mon...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Choppy. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
711pm EDT Fri July 20 2018

Synopsis: Low pressure developing along a warm front will approach from the south tonight and move across the area Saturday. A warm and moist southerly flow between low pressure to the west and high pressure over the Atlantic will produce unsettled weather from late this weekend through at least the middle of next week.

Near Term - Until 6am Saturday Morning
As of 711 pm Friday...Made slight adjustment to thunder wording in the zones for this evening as there is no lightning in the area, but there probably will be after midnight as the low lifts northeast toward the area. No change in Probability of Precipitation or temps

Prev disc...Light to occasionally moderate rain will continue moving from south to north across the CWA this evening and tonight as surface low works its way from the coast from SC into NC later tonight and Saturday. With precipitable water values of near 2 inches, some localized heavy rainfall will be possible and some areas could receive 1-2 inches or better before all is said and done later on Saturday. As the surface low moves near the coast tonight, there is some concern for some backing low- level winds that could increase low-level helicity with the possibility of brief spin-ups near the coast, especially the Outer Banks late tonight. Winds will veer to more SE/S toward morning and increase, especially near the coast and sounds. With clouds and precipitation, expect fairly uniform low temperatures tonight in the low/mid 70s

Short Term - 6am Saturday Morning Through 6pm Saturday
As of 340pm Friday...More widespread rain will move along the coast, particularly during the morning, before becoming more scattered during the afternoon as the surface low passes north of the region. Probability of Precipitation will be likely coastal areas during the morning, dropping to high chances for all areas by early afternoon. The combination of an upper low dropping south on the backside of the exiting surface low, and a decrease in cloudiness, should lead to some destabilization inland during the afternoon Saturday. This could produce a few strong to locally severe storms and most of the CWA is in a "Marginal Threat" of severe weather Saturday, with the best chances to be inland in the afternoon. With a decent amount of cloud cover Saturday, high temperatures will range from 85 to 88 degrees

Long Term - Saturday Night Through Friday
As of 305am Friday...An area of low pressure will move northeast of the Carolina coast Saturday evening. A warm and moist southerly flow will develop thereafter due to low pressure to the west and high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean, leading to unsettled weather conditions from Sunday through much of next week.

Saturday night through Thursday...The surface low mentioned above will lift northeast of the area Saturday evening, with deep, warm, and moist southerly flow developing in its wake through much of the upcoming week between low pressure to the west and broad western Atlantic high pressure. The upper pattern this period becomes favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms, most widespread during peak heating with a persistent mid level trough over the eastern US. Guidance indicates the potential for 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through mid week. Will continue to highlight severe/flood potential in HWO.

Temperatures Sunday through Thursday will be close to climatological normals, ranging from highs near 90 inland to mid 80s for the coast. Minimum temps will range from the low to mid 70s.

Marine Discussion
Short Term - Through Tonight: As of 711 pm Friday...Zones in good shape. No changes needed. NE/E winds currently along the coastal waters and sounds should veer to more SE/S later tonight in response to surface low that will track northeast along the coast from SC across NC by late Saturday. Winds and seas will ramp up by midnight with Small Craft Advisories having been issued for the Pamlico Sound and all Coastal Waters from 06z tonight through 06z Sunday morning. S/SW winds of 15-25 knots with some gusts to 30 knots are likely in the advisory area tonight and Saturday. Per latest local NWPS model, seas will build to as high as 6-8 feet, mainly during the day Saturday before subsiding later Saturday night.

Long Term - Saturday night Wednesday: As of 300am Friday...Low end Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected over the waters for much of the period. Sunday through Wednesday, moderate S/SW winds 10-20 kt develop in the low's wake, producing 4 to 6 ft seas, highest for the outer fringes of the coastal waters

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory from 2am Saturday to 2am EDT Sunday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-152-154-156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 11am to 11pm EDT Saturday for AMZ150

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