Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop Late.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat After Midnight.|
|Sat...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves Flat, Increasing To Light Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Sun...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Evening, Then Becoming W After Midnight. Waves Choppy, Increasing To Rough. Showers. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Mon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon, Then Diminishing To Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
203pm EST Thu Dec 7 2023
Cool high pressure builds into the area today with a warming trend to follow into the weekend. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and increased chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 145pm Thursday...Upper ridging currently centered over the Mississippi River Valley will push eastward tonight with a subtle shortwave sliding sewd across the region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered over the Southeast will slide off the coast tonight with lee troughing developing across the western piedmont. The shortwave will have very little influence of sensible weather across ENC other than to tighten the pressure gradients some, which will mostly be felt along the coast as light to moderate sw winds. Clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling across inland areas and expect temps to fall fairly quickly after sunset this evening. Low tonight expected in the low to mid 30s inland to low to mid 40s along the coast.
Short Term - Friday
As of 145pm Thursday...The upper ridge axis becomes centered across the Eastern seaboard Friday with surface high pressure offshore. A dry airmass remains across the region although will see high clouds passing overhead that will bring filtered sunshine throughout most of the day. light SW winds allow for warming temps and expect highs near seasonable norms in the lower 60s.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Wednesday
As of 330am Thursday... KEY MESSAGES
1) Strong cold front to bring the potential of multiple hazards Sunday/Sunday night
2) Above normal temperatures over the weekend
3) Below normal temperatures next week
A potent shortwave will move ashore along the Pacific NW today, dive southeast into the Southern Plains by late Saturday, then lift northeast across the Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday into Monday. Medium range ensemble guidance have backed off a bit on the strength of the wave as it moves through the Eastern US, but it still appears likely that it will take on a negative tilt as it moves through, the strength of which is still noteworthy. At the surface, high pressure will shift offshore on Friday, with a stout return/southerly flow developing over the weekend. A cold front will then march east across the Carolinas Sunday night.
What's most impressive with this system is the kinematics. A strong 50-60kt southerly LLJ is forecast to develop on the warm side of the system, with some guidance forecasting an impressive 60-70kt within the jet. With widespread clouds and showers, heating will be strongly WAA-driven, and mixing should be on the shallow side. Even so, there should be enough mixing into the lower reaches of the LLJ, allowing a fairly widespread area of 30-40 mph winds at times prior to the passage of the cold front, especially Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Where mixing and the pressure gradient are maximized, gusts of 45+ mph will be possible. Probabilistic guidance gives a 50-60% chance of those higher gusts being reached (highest probs along the coast), and a Wind Advisory may be needed for a portion of the area.
The strong kinematics with this system will also support anomalously strong moisture transport into the region ahead of the front, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) peaking as high as 1.25-1.50". The strong moisture transport will be important for both the rainfall potential and any severe weather potential. Rainfall-wise, guidance differs on where the axis of heaviest rainfall will be, but there's a pretty good signal for 1- 2" of rain given the strong lift overlapping with anomalous moisture. It's been fairly dry over the past week across Eastern NC, and we should be able to handle these rainfall amounts. However, where rainfall rates are the highest, typically flood-prone and urban areas could see some minor hydro issues.
Regarding the convective potential, the strengthening southerly flow will help advect 60s dewpoints into the area, but with warmer temps aloft and weak lapse rates, instability may only top out in the 250- 500 J/kg range. Strong deep layer shear will be present, setting up a conditional high shear/low CAPE severe weather risk. Given the strength of forcing, it's possible that a narrow band, or two, of thunderstorms will develop ahead of the advancing front, capable of pockets of enhanced wind potential. Keep in mind, with the strong winds aloft, even weak convection could help mix down some stronger gusts at the surface. As is often the case this time of year, the main limiting factor will be weak instability. Stay tuned as we continue to assess this potential.
Once the front clears the area, a drier and colder airmass is forecast to settle into the region next week. Temperatures will drop back below normal (similar to the past couple of days).
SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 2pm Thursday...High pressure centered across the Southeast will push off the coast tonight with a trough developing across the western piedmont. Current obs showing W to NW winds around 5-10 kt with seas around 3-5 ft northern and central waters and 2-4 ft southern waters. Winds will back to WSW late today as the surface high slides offshore. Will see some tightening of the pressure gradients tonight as a weak midlevel shortwave moves across the area with WSW winds increasing to 10-20 kt. Wly winds diminish to around 10-15 kt Friday with seas subsiding to 2-3 ft across most waters by the afternoon though up to 4 ft may continue across the outer central waters.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 330am Thursday... KEY MESSAGES
1) Hazardous marine conditions expected Saturday night into Monday
High pressure overhead on Saturday will lead to light winds (5-10kt) and good boating conditions. Seas will be 2-3 ft. Conditions will begin to deteriorate Saturday night as a cold front approaches from the west. This will lead to a strengthening southerly wind and building seas. The worst boating conditions are expected later Sunday into Sunday night as the cold front moves east across the area. The front will be accompanied by a period of gale- force winds over the coastal waters, including the Pamlico Sound, and strong SCA-level winds over the remaining inland rivers and sounds. Over the warmest coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras, model guidance and pattern recognition suggests occasional gusts to storm-force will be possible (40-60% chance). Elsewhere, a solid period of 25-35kt southerly winds can be expected as the front moves through. Seas will respond to the strong southerly flow, and will build to 7-13 ft offshore (5-8 ft close to shore). Inland rivers and sounds will be very choppy to rough. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front, and will lead to areas of enhanced wind gusts. Behind the front, gusty northwesterly winds will lay down to 15-25kt, and seas will eventually follow suite.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories