Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Choppy.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Sun Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
704pm EDT Thu April 2 2020
High pressure will build over the area into the weekend, as low pressure lingers over the Atlantic. High pressure then strengthens offshore early next week, as a weak boundary moves into the region.
Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
As of 700pm Thursday...Minimal changes needed to the current forecast with clear skies across the region at early evening. Low pressure off the New England coast will move a bit closer to the coast overnight with high pressure ridging south from the Great Lakes. This will lead to increasing NW/NNW winds. This will lead to better low-level mixing which should hold temperatures up a bit from last night. Lows will range mainly from the upper 30s inland to the low/mid 40s coast.
Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through 6pm Friday
As of 315pm Thu...The retrograding Atlantic low will cause winds to increase as it bumps into the inland ridge with breezy conditions inland and windy coast. Downslope flow will warm and dry the atmosphere with highs near 70 and low rh values around 25% leading to increased Fire Danger conditions. Skies will be mostly sunny.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Thursday
As 300am Thurs...Cool, but moderating conditions are expected into the weekend, as a large low pressure system meanders off the Mid-Atlantic coast. High pressure then builds into the area early next week, and then shifts offshore, leading to warmer, but more unsettled conditions through mid week.
Saturday...Jet stream blocking will lead to the retrograde of an expansive and strong low pressure system from the New England coast, south towards Bermuda. Locally, this will lead to continued northwest/northerly flow with stronger winds through Saturday as the low makes its closest approach to the area. Could see close to Gale Force winds across the Outer Banks again which could lead to some additional minor coastal flooding, see Coastal Flood section below for more details.
Dry conditions are expected though, and temperatures will be slightly below average with highs in the mid to upper 60s for most. Closer to the NE NC coast strong northerly winds off the cool ocean will lead to highs 50s to low 60s.
Sunday through Wednesday...High pressure will build over the area early Sunday morning, and shift offshore late in the day. Expect temps a bit warmer, with readings reaching the low 70s inland, and 60s closer to the coast.
High pressure then strengthens offshore Monday and Tuesday while a weak boundary moves into the region. This along with subtle upper level disturbances moving overhead, will lead to increasingly unsettled weather through midweek. Could also see an isolated thunderstorm with temperatures warming well into the 70s inland.
Short Term /through Friday/... As of 700pm Thursday...Gradient with strong low pressure off of New England and high pressure building south of the Great Lakes will lead to gusty NW/NNW winds of 15-25 knots through late evening, and increasing to 20-30 knots toward morning and through the day Friday. Small Craft Advisories have already been issued for the Sounds and continue for the coastal waters. Seas currently 5 to 8 ft northern and central waters will cont in that range tonight and Fri. Over southern waters seas will be mostly 4 to 6 ft with some 7 footers over the outer waters through Fri.
Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 330am Thurs...Strong NW/N winds will continue into the weekend, as a large low pressure system sits off the New England coast, and eventually retrogrades south towards Bermuda. Winds will be NW 15-25 kts Friday night with gusts close to Gale Force, turning to the north on Saturday. Winds finally subside Sunday, and then turn to the south late in the day. SW winds then strengthen to 10-20 kts on Monday.
Seas will be elevated and dangerous Friday through the weekend peaking at 8-12 ft east and north of Cape Lookout, while remaining 3-6 ft across the southern waters. Seas will subside through the day Sunday, but remain 5-7 ft on Monday.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 315pm Thu...Coastal concerns will continue along the Outer Banks this weekend, as low pressures over the Atlantic retrogrades back towards the East Coast. Beaches will begin to see long period swell from the distant low arrive Friday, peaking Saturday and Saturday night. Confidence is increasing that the Outer Banks will see large powerful wave action resulting in a prolonged period of wave run up (double digit seas with periods 14-15 seconds), with the threats for very rough surf, coastal flooding, beach erosion and ocean overwash. Moderate to potentially significant impacts will be possible for ocean side locations of the Outer Banks. This could impact portions of Highway 12, especially at times of high tide.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT Saturday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory from 4am to 5pm EDT Friday for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Monday for AMZ150-152-154- 156-158.