Marine Weather Net

Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUE

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ137 Forecast Issued: 100 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Rest Of Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Isolated Showers In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. Scattered Showers, Mainly In The Evening.
Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon.
Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1011pm EST Sunday Jan 26 2020

Synopsis
High pressure will shift south of the area tonight. Fast moving low pressure may bring a brief period of rain for Monday before high pressure builds back in through mid to late week. A coastal storm is possible next weekend.

Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
As of 1000pm Sun...The latest satellite imagery is showing high clouds are moving across the ENC this evening and expect the mid clouds to arriving to our southwestern zone shortly after midnight. With it update, made minor tweaks to the hourly temperatures based on the current trends, but in generally the forecast remain in great shape. No other changes were done with this update.

Prev Dis...Upper air analysis shows an amplifying upper ridge over the western CONUS and a complex upper low continuing to swirl over portions of New England and Quebec. A well- defined shortwave was noted on satellite imagery moving into the MS valley and will be the main weather-maker for our area in the short term.

At the surface, a broad 1020mb high was analyzed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This high will gradually shift south of our area tonight and with subsidence aloft expect another quiet night. Cloud cover will gradually increase overnight as shortwave approaches the Carolinas and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) rise. Lows expected to hold around climo tonight with most inland areas reaching into the 30s except for portions of the immediate coast.

Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through 6pm Monday
As of 315pm Sun...Aforementioned shortwave approaches the Carolinas Monday with cloud cover increasing and a chance for some spotty rainfall. The best chance will be from midday into the evening hours as moisture deepens but with the best vorticity advection displaced to our south and lacking jet dynamics expect total accumulations to be light - around or under a tenth of an inch. Only change to Probability of Precipitation was to extend PoPs into the overnight hours based on latest hi-res guidance trends. Highs quite similar to today, reaching into the low to mid 50s.

Long Term - Monday Night Through Sunday
As of 315am Sunday...Most of the upcoming week will be dry and seasonable. Another southern stream system may impact the area at the end of the week into next weekend, but considerable model differences exist.

Monday night through Friday...Most of the week beyond Monday will be dry with seasonable temperatures. Highs should generally be in the low to mid 50s, with lows ranging from the low/mid 30s inland and low/mid 40s Outer Banks. The real shot for measurable precipitation comes Thursday as another decent mid-level shortwave crosses the area, but precipitation will again be light and largely confined to the coast, so kept Probability of Precipitation quite low.

Friday Night and Saturday...While the longer-term models show a deepening trough and strong shortwave diving south toward the Gulf Coast before lifting out to the northeast, there are considerable differences on timing, location and strength of the ensuing surface system. The recent trends in the models have been for a weaker low further offshore, reducing the amounts of precipitation and overall impacts to the area, compared to yesterday's model cycle. However, still quite a bit of uncertainty at this time range, so will play it safe and keep low chance Probability of Precipitation in the forecast. GFS and Canadian are faster with the onset of precipitation, showing more of a Friday start time, while the ECWMF brings in the bulk of the precipitation on Saturday. Temperatures still remain fairly close to normal through Saturday.

Marine
Short Term /Tonight and Monday/... As of 1000pm Sun...No update needed.

Prev Dis...The latest buoy observations are showing mostly westerly flow 5-15 knots and seas 3-4 feet. Made additional adjustments to the wave height forecast as seas are lower than what we are forecasting; used mostly WW3 model for the overnight hours.

Prev Dis...Wave guidance has evidently been running hot today, as observed outer water seas are running about two feet lower than forecast. With no apparent near term wind surge to drive heigheights back up, opted to drop the SCA. Seas will remain at around 4-5 feet for the period with westerly flow of around 10-15 kt with slightly higher winds for the outer waters.

Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
As of 325am Sunday...A strong mid- level shortwave, embedded in a deep trough along the Atlantic coast, will pass across the area Monday night and Tuesday and will lead to a period of NW winds 15-20 knot winds and seas 3-5 feet, below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. For Tuesday night through Thursday, winds should generally be N 5-15 knots with seas 2-5 feet.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None. MARINE...None.