Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening. |
| Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tue...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Waves Flat. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 647am EDT Fri August 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have added a climate section to the AFD. Updated Aviation Discussion. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid temps expected across ENC over the next few days. 2) Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity likely today and tomorrow. This activity will bring a marginal severe and flooding risk, with the aid of an approaching front. 3) Next front approaches early next week, bringing another round of shower and thunderstorm activity to ENC. Aviation: LIFR conditions possible in TSRA on Friday KEY MESSAGE 1...Yet another warm and muggy morning today with temps in the 70s to low 80s and debris clouds from dissipating showers to the north and west of the area filtering into ENC. As far as today goes, do expect any leftover debris clouds to dissipate later this morning with yet another hot day on tap. 1000-850 MB thicknesses will be slightly higher today (1435-1440 m) as compared to previous days which should result in highs in the 90s. Latest guidance suggests we at least near record high temperatures today, though whether we reach record highs today will be dependent on if morning cloud cover dissipates early enough. See CLIMATE section for more information. With a front to the north slowly encroaching, moisture is forecast to pool out ahead of the front allowing dewpoints to potentially increase into the mid to upper 70s, resulting in widespread "feels like" temperatures of 105-110F this afternoon across ENC. While we toyed with the idea for an Extreme Heat Warning across our SW'rn zones, think the morning debris clouds plus afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity should preclude us from reaching criteria. As a result have kept the heat advisory in place across all of ENC. We continue to encourage anyone planning on spending time outdoors to stay hydrated and to limit exposure to the heat, if able. While we "cool down" as compared to today this weekend, with frontal progression slow to occur, temps still get into the mid 80s along the OBX to low to mid 90s inland. With dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 70s this weekend could see continued heat indices around 105 F. While the footprint will likely be smaller, this could result in additional heat headlines this weekend with the greatest chance to see additional heat headlines across our SW'rn zones which will be the last to be impacted by the aforementioned front. Front will lift north as a warm front Sunday into Monday and Monday would be our next best chance at more widespread heat headlines across ENC. KEY MESSAGE 2... Best chance to see more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity occurs today and over this weekend with the approach of a frontal boundary and associated mid level shortwave. At the outset, have a mid level ridge centered over the Southeast. While initially this morning we will not have much upper level support with a mid level shortwave still in the Ohio River Valley riding along the periphery of this ridging, we should see a more active seabreeze that pushes inland later this morning and afternoon as winds are more S'rly as compared to previous days. So the seabreeze wont be pinned along the coast. This should result in a more active seabreeze with better moisture and more interactions with local sound and river breezes as well, aiding in surface convergence. Then as we get into tonight a combination of the aforementioned front and mid level shortwave should provide additional lift for another round of showers and thunderstorms coming in from the north and west. This front then likely stalls across the area on Sat bringing continued rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity before the front finally lifts north as a warm front on Sun. Overall this should result in continued chances for scattered precipitation over the next few days so have kept high end chance Probability of Precipitation in the forecast. Pre-storm environment today and tomorrow is marginally conducive for strong to severe storms as well as isolated flooding potential, supported by both NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) and AI guidance. Latest guidance suggests while deep layer shear will be weak (generally around 20-25 kts), instability will be more than sufficient (MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg) for strong updrafts along the seabreeze and aforementioned front. With moisture also pooling ahead of the front, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) increase to 2-2.25" today as well. Activity should be mainly diurnal, although there is a risk of some overnight convection as upstream activity migrates along the sub-tropical ridge. Thunderstorm activity is forecast to wane in intensity and coverage as we get later into tonight, though with the front hanging around the area tomorrow as well yet another potential round for strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly south and west of where the aforementioned front stalls. Strongest storms could produce wet microbursts, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall given this environment. While not likely there is also a non-zero tornado threat within the strongest storms. As a result Storm Prediction Center has portions of the area under a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather today and tomorrow. In addition to this, slow storm motions, upper level winds parallel to the surface front, and ample moisture will bring a threat for isolated instances of flash flooding and WPC also has the areas under a marginal risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall today and tomorrow as well. KEY MESSAGE 3...A second frontal boundary looks to approach early next week after a brief lull Sunday. Still plenty of details to hammer out, but medium- range AI NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) guidance points once again to at least a marginal risk of stronger storms for portions of the Carolinas, along with a heavy rainfall risk as humid airmass remains unyielding. Marine Ongoing 5-10 kt S-SW'rly winds and 1-3 ft seas are noted across all waters this morning out ahead of an approaching cold front. As this front begins to approach from the north later today we see the pressure gradient tighten. This will result in near SCA conditions this afternoon into tonight. Winds increase to 10-20 kt when coupled with typical thermal gradient. An infrequent gust to 25 kt is not entirely out of the question, mainly for soundside waters and coastal zones north of Hatteras, but probabilities are too low to warrant SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines. With winds increasing seas will also build to 2-4 ft this evening. These elevated conditions will continue into Sat morning before gradually weakening as the front stalls and the pressure gradient relaxes some with winds falling to 5-15 kts and seas back down to 1-3 ft. Front will also bring an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms Fri afternoon into the late evening hours, a few storms could be strong and produce gusts over 35-40 kt. A return to more benign boating conditions are then forecast Sat night into Sunday as high pressure ridging builds into the area. Yet another front nears the area Monday into Tuesday bringing yet another low-end chance at SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions and more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Climate Record High temps for 08/14 Friday LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 97/2023 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 91/2019 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 99/1918 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 93/1995 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 104/1925 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 96/2019 (NCA ASOS) NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC... Heat Advisory from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199- 203>205. Marine None. |
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