Marine Weather Net

Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

N
WINDS
5  KNOTS

SUN

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ137 Forecast Issued: 609 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Tonight...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.
Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop.
Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.
Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.
Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.
Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
609 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
High pressure will slide offshore Sunday. A cold front will push through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning, with high pressure building in behind it. A large low pressure system will affect the region Thursday and into Friday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
605pm EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Synopsis
High pressure will slide offshore Sunday. A cold front will push through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning, with high pressure building in behind it. A large low pressure system will affect the region Thursday and into Friday.

Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning
As of 605pm Sat...High pressure will become centered over the mid-Atlantic tonight and produce calm winds and clear skies across eastern NC tonight. This will result in excellent radiational cooling conditions thus will continue.nue to forecast lows a few degrees below guidance with mid to upper 40s inland to mid to upper 50s along the immediate coast. Guidance indicates little in the way of fog tonight but cannot rule out patchy shallow ground fog late.

Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through 6pm Sunday
As of 215pm Sat...High pressure slides offshore Sunday with low level flow veering from NE early in the day to SE during the afternoon. Warm and dry conditions expected with mainly sunny skies but will likely see an increase in high clouds late. Highs expected in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland to mid 70s coast.

Long Term - Sunday Night Through Saturday
As of 245am Sat...High will slide offshore early next week, with warm temps continuing. A developing low pressure system pass to our north Monday night, and push a cold front through the area. High pressure then briefly builds in Tuesday and Wednesday, with another stronger storm system expected to affect the area Thursday and Friday.

Sunday night and Monday...High pressure remains offshore Sunday night into Monday. Continued moisture advection on Monday could yield some scattered showers or thunderstorms by the afternoon with some modest instability present. Highs Monday should climb into the low to mid 80s.

Monday Night through Wednesday...A developing area of low pressure will push into the Mid-Atlantic Monday night ahead of a sharp upper level shortwave. As the low moves offshore overnight, it will drag a cold front to its south through Eastern NC. A quick shot of rain with some scattered thunderstorms can expected across the area overnight. Will have to watch for the potential of any strong to severe storms given strong dynamics in place, however the unfavorable nocturnal passage of the front and lack of instability inland from the coast will be limiting factors.

The front will be offshore by mid morning Tuesday, and with most models now showing stronger Cold Air Advection behind it, temperatures will only warm into the upper 60s to low 70s despite clearing skies. High pressure will try to build into the area Wednesday, however a stalled area of low pressure over the southern New England coast will keep low level heigheights from building much through the day, and another seasonable day is expected with highs ranging from the upper 60s to around 70.

Thursday And Friday
A deep upper level trough and/or cut off low will lumber across the central US next week reaching the Deep South early Thursday. Surface low pressure is then expected to deepen and race inland up the East coast Thursday and into Friday. With the latest forecast cycle, there are both significant timing and meteorological differences between the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC through this period. The GFS remains the fastest solution, and splits the low pressure system with one low occluding over the southern Great Lakes, while another low races to the NC coast and moves offshore and up the Eastern Seaboard. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and CMC are much slower showing impacts from this system more on Friday than Thursday as the GFS has it. The ECMWF shows more of a classic Nor'Easter solution with low pressure moving eastward from the Deep South and off the NC coast before rapidly deepening and moving up the East Coast. The CMC seems to be somewhere in the middle of these two solutions. At any rate, given the uncertainty, will keep an extended period of chance Probability of Precipitation for Thursday and into Friday.

The eventual speed and strength of the system will determine the impacts felt here, but there is some potential for heavy rain, severe weather, strong winds, and minor coastal flooding with this system.

Marine
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/... As of 605pm Sat...High pressure becomes centered across the mid- Atlantic states tonight then slides offshore Sunday. N to NW winds 10 kt or less tonight veers to the E to SE Sunday. Seas will continue.nue 2-3 ft.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 325am Sat...Decent boating conditions are expected for the period, with high pressure in control until Monday night when a cold front moves through the coastal waters.

As high pressure slides farther offshore Sunday night, winds will slowly veer around to SSE 10-20 kts Sunday night. Winds subside slightly Monday morning, but then increase again to S 15-20 kts by Monday afternoon. By Monday night winds will peak at 15-25 kts just ahead of a cold front, and then turn to the W at 15-25 kts behind the front on Tuesday. Marginal Small Craft conditions will be possible both ahead of the front Monday night, and behind on Tuesday. Winds subside some Wednesday becoming W at 10-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through Monday morning, and then build to 3-5 ft Monday afternoon through Tuesday, with some brief periods of 6 foot seas possible.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.

Marine
None.