Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves Light Chop. Tstms Likely. Showers Likely.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Thu...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
938pm EDT Sat July 20 2019
Synopsis: Hot and humid conditions continue through early next week as the area remains between subtropical high pressure offshore and weak troughing inland. A front will approach the area Tuesday before crossing Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing much needed relief from the heat for the second half of the week.
Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning
As of 940pm Sat...Mostly clear and quiet conditions expected across Eastern NC tonight. Persistent wind will keep temps very warm and muggy with lows expected to only reach the mid to upper 70s...low 80s along the beaches
Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through 6pm Sunday
As of 345pm Sat...The upper level ridge prevails on Sunday with surface high pressure remaining offshore and promoting SW to WSW flow across the region. Thus similar conditions are expected to today with a suppressed sea breeze and below normal Probability of Precipitation for the period. Opted to keep the forecast dry with no clear forcing mechanism present for tomorrow.
The SW flow will once again encourage highs into the mid to upper 90s. On the other hand, it will also encourage slightly lower dew points (albeit still above 70 everywhere). Heat indices will once again reach 105+ across the entire region with areas north of U.S. 70 most susceptible to indices of 110 or higher where the warmest temperatures are forecast to overlap with slightly higher dew points. Thus issued an Excessive Heat Warning for areas north of the highway and kept a Heat Advisory south
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Saturday
As of 335pm Sat...Oppressive and dangerous heat and humidity persists through Monday, then a slow moving and moist cold front will bring much needed rainfall and relief from the heat wave beginning Tuesday and continuing Wed. More pleasant temps are expected for the remainder of the week with highs mostly in the 80s.
Sunday night and Monday...The oppressive heat and humidity continue with sultry lows in the mid to upper 70s (around 80 beaches) and Highs Monday in the mid 90s inland and around 90 coast. This will result in Heat Index values around 105 degrees again in the afternoon with Heat Advisories likely needed for one last day. While the subtropical high remains in control Monday, little to no convection is expected once again, and will carry barely a 20 Probability of Precipitation for interior locales as most areas dry.
Tuesday and Wednesday...The upper pattern will undergo a significant change with major amplification of a western ridge and eastern trough. The amplification of the aforementioned trough will drive a cold front towards and through most of E NC by Tuesday night. Deep moisture convergence ahead of this front looks sufficient enough to justify the continuation of likely POPs Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. A severe threat may be present, as deep layer shear inc to 25-30 kt, and surface based CAPE's at or above 2,000 J/KG by Tuesday afternoon. The progression of storms should be fast enough to limit a flood threat, but a couple inches of rain are possible in heavier convective bands. A few locations may reach or briefly exceed 90 degrees but most locations will be in the mid to upper 80s for highs Tue. The front is forecast to move just southeast of the area Tuesday evening and stall Wednesday with the boundary being close enough E NC to give coastal areas a decent shot of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday and will up Probability of Precipitation Wednesday east of Highway 17 to likely with chance west. A drier and much cooler airmass filters into the region behind the front on NE flow with highs in the low 80s ending the long heat wave. Wednesday night lows finally back to near climo in the 65-70 degree range interior to low/mid 70s beaches.
Thursday through Saturday...Longwave troughing will be present across the Eastern CONUS through late week with surface high pressure ridging into the region. Though as is typical for E NC in the heart of the summer, how far south the front remains this period will dictate precipitation potential. Looks the front, which will be washing out, will be close enough to warrant chance Pops eastern locales Thu and Fri through coverage should be scattered. Sat looking fairly dry attm so will forecast a "silent" 20% PoP. NE flow is forecast to prevail through the period resulting in pleasantly warm temps and slightly below climo Highs in the 80s and more comfortable TD's mainly in the 60s.
Short Term - Through Sunday: As of 615pm Sat...A sharpening of the inland surface trough has led to an increase in southerly flow with speeds expected to remain 15-20 kt through Sunday. Differential heating has resulted in winds gusting at times to 25 kt early this evening. These gusts should taper off only to increase again late Sunday as conditions remain the same the next 24 hours. With the persistent, moderate southerly flow expected to continue, seas are forecast to remain 3-5 ft through Sunday.
Long Term - Sunday night through Thursday: As of 335pm Sat...Tight gradient ahead of a slow moving cold front will result in enhanced SW flow of 15-25 kt with higher gusts Sunday night into Tuesday with elevated seas peaking at 5-7 ft late Monday and Monday night (highest outer central waters). The SW winds decrease slightly to 15- 20 kt Tuesday afternoon with seas 4-6 ft. The front is forecast to move south of the waters by Wed, with NE winds developing but only in the 10-15 kt with seas mostly 2-4 ft Wednesday and Thu.erm /Sunday through Wednesday/..
Near record high temps will be possible this weekend.
Record High temps for 7/20 (Saturday)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 100/1977 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 92/2002 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 102/1977 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 98/1986 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 103/1977 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 101/1977 (KNCA ASOS)
Record High temps for 7/21 (Sunday)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 103/1952 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 94/1977 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 102/1977 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 98/1987 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 101/2011 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 100/1987 (KNCA ASOS)
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Heat Advisory from 11am to 8pm EDT Sunday for NCZ090>092-094- 193>196-198-199-204-205. Excessive Heat Warning from 11am to 8pm EDT Sunday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-203. MARINE...None