Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
|Today...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Rain Early This Afternoon. Rain Likely Late.|
|Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. Rain Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Rain Or Snow After Midnight.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Rough. A Chance Of Snow Or Rain In The Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Snow In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Choppy.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
636am EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Rapidly deepening low pressure system passing well offshore will impact the area today and tomorrow. High pressure will build back over the area late weekend and early next week. The next storm system will approach mid to late next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 625am Fri...Strong upper level trough digs across the eastern US Friday, churning up a coastal low off the Southeast coast. Low will lift north and strengthen during the day, increasing cloud coverage through the afternoon. Precip expected to start off as rain and develop mid to late afternoon with best chances east of Hwy 17 as the storm system becomes more organized. Rainfall expected to remain light as decent dry layer around 850-700mb gradually saturates. Aftn highs expected in the upper 40s to around 50.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Saturday
As of 4am Fri...Forecast challenges remain with the snow potential of this coastal low with many factors fully reliant on the timing and rapid intensification of this coastal low, both factors of which are notoriously difficult to model. The general evolution for this system has the upper level trough becoming more amplified as it digs across the Southeast, allowing for rapid deepening of the coastal low. Trough becomes more negatively tilted Sat morning and begins to lift across the Mid Atlantic seaboard. Strong Cold Air Advection on the back side of the low will allow for overnight temps to drop across the FA and help transition rain to snow by early Satam and continuing through the mid to late morning hours.
Guidance consensus continues the drier trend with best moisture contained to the immediate coastline overnight. With models favoring a quickly exiting low, the window of opportunity for more robust snowfall from the initial back side of the developing coastal low remains narrow. In short, moisture will be limited by the time boundary layers are cold enough to support any wintry ptypes. Some snowfall accumulations remain possible overnight, but will be limited to mainly the NOBX and northern counties of the FA with only around a half inch to maybe an inch of total snowfall expected. Models are, instead, continuing to focus in on weak surface troughing across western and central NC early Sat AM. Weak ascent from this feature will provide a broad area of light snowfall as it transits across central NC and into eastern NC by daybreak Saturday, eventually merging with the parent coastal low, which has relocated northward over coastal New England at this point. Guidance currently suggests this weak troughing feature will provide snowfall of about 0.5 to around 1 inch as it pushes across the FA, with highest amts north and west. Total snowfall amts of 1-2 inches are expected across the northern tier of counties with around an inch or less points south and little to no accumulations across the Crystal Coast and SOBX. As a result, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for areas along the Hwy 264 corridor north.
Coastal system will depart late Sat morning through the early afternoon with a cold airmass behind it. Aftn temps will briefly warm to the mid 30s before temps begin their tumble tonight.
It is also worth noting that, dependent on how long the snowfall persists into the day Saturday as the gradient is tightening along the Northern Outer Banks, strong wind gusts over 35 mph and falling snow may combine to reduce visibilities to 1/4 mile or less at times.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
As of 330am Fri...Strong Cold Air Advection continues Saturday night, bringing one of the coldest nigheights of the season. Lows will reach well into the teens for most of the area, with lower 20s for the beaches, with wind chill values in the lower teens or upper single digits, especially for areas that received accumulating snowfall. At these temperatures, any wet surface will freeze, and black ice and slick roads will be a concern.
High pressure builds in from the south Sunday and Monday, then from the north Tuesday, keeping a dry conditions in place and allowing temps to slowly moderate.
The high then slides off the Northeast coast mid to late week as low pressure rides up the Appalachians. This will bring warm air advection locally, with Wednesday and Thursday shaping up to be two of the warmer days in the last several weeks. Rainfall chances return to the forecast with the arrival of the more moist airmass, but significant timing differences with the arrival of the best lift ahead of an approaching cold front justifies no more than chance POPs Wednesday through the end of the workweek for the time being.
SHORT TERM /through Friday night/... As of 4am Fri...Developing coastal low this afternoon will cause marine conditions to quickly diminish tonight. N winds surge back to 20-25 kts with gusts exceeding 30 kts. Seas surge from 2-4 ft this afternoon to 3-6 ft by early Sat morning.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
As of 4am Fri...Strong high pressure passing offshore brings gales to the coastal waters and eastern Pamlico Sound Saturday, with warnings now in place. Confidence is lower in gales prevailing for the Croatan/Roanoke/Albemarle Sounds, so opted for Gale Watch for now. On the rivers, limited exposure will keep winds in the 20-30 kt range. Quickly building northerly windswell associated with the rapidly deepening low will bring seas to 8-12 ft east of the Outer Banks by Saturday afternoon and evening. conditions steadily improve Saturday night into Sunday as the low moves off the New England coast and high pressure begins to build in from the south locally. Any lingering hazardous seas (6+ ft) will subside Sunday.
Generally favorable marine conditions then prevail through early next week as high pressure builds in from the south initially, then from the north beginning Monday night.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 4am Fri...Rapidly deepening low pressure passing offshore will bring strong north to northwest winds Saturday. Minor coastal flooding is possible mainly along the soundside Outer Banks South of Rodanthe and Downeast Carteret County Saturday into early Sunday morning. Additionally, the combination of elevated water levels and building northerly swell could bring the threat for minor ocean overwash for Hatteras Island north of Cape Hatteras around the time of high tide over the weekend.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2pm EST Saturday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-203. Wind Advisory from 9am to 10pm EST Saturday for NCZ203>205.
Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 10pm EST Saturday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 7am to 7pm EST Saturday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory from 4am Saturday to 1am EST Sunday for AMZ131. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for AMZ230-231. Gale Warning from 5am Saturday to 2am EST Sunday for AMZ150- 152. Gale Warning from 7am to 10pm EST Saturday for AMZ158. Gale Warning from 7am Saturday to 1am EST Sunday for AMZ154(Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet)- 156.