Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Choppy. |
| Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 750pm EDT Tuesday Oct 8 2024 Synopsis Cooler and drier high pressure is building over ENC and will remain over the area through late week as Hurricane Milton pushes off the Florida Coast into the Western Atlantic. High pressure will slowly migrate south this weekend with a cold front pushing through the area early next week. Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning As of 8pm Tuesday...No major changes to the forecast with this update. Previous Discussion...As of 1:30pm Tuesday...Cooler and drier high pressure continues to build over the area. Efficient radiational cooling will take place tonight with inland lows expected to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s. Closer to the coast where the wind will stay slightly more elevated, temps will bottom out in the low 60s. No fog is expected to develop overnight given persistent light winds and a lack of moisture. Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through 6pm Wednesday As of 1:45pm Tuesday...High pressure will remain in control and support another day of seasonably cool temps in the mid-70s and dewpoints in the 50s. Mostly sunny skies will prevail through early afternoon before high clouds start to increase from south to north through the rest of the day. Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Tuesday As of 3am Tuesday...High pressure will build into the area through the end of the week. TC Milton will move off the Florida coast and pass well south of the area Thursday into Friday. A cold front will push through the area early next week. Wednesday through Friday night...An upper cut-off slow will slowly push eastward across southern Quebec and northern New England through the period with surface high pressure building in from the northwest bringing seasonably cool temps and comfortable dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. Skies will be most sunny Wednesday but will see a bit more clouds Thursday and TC Milton moves off the FL coast into the western Atlantic well south of the area. Guidance continues to show the precipitation mainly remaining south of the area but could see a few showers across the southern coastal waters Thursday. Expect increasing NE winds as gradients tighten between high pressure across the Mid- Atlantic and the tropical system. Main impacts from the system are expected across the waters and beaches with an increased rip current, large surf and dangerous boating conditions. There may also be a threat of minor coastal flooding with prolonged moderate to strong NE winds including the threat of dune erosion and ocean overwash in vulnerable locations. Temps will be below normal through most of the period with highs in the low to mid 70s Wednesday, then increasing clouds and stronger NE winds expected to keep temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday and Friday. Lows will be in the mid 50s to around 60 Wednesday night with upper 40s to lower 50s inland to mid 50s to around 60 along the coast. Saturday through Monday...High pressure will be centered across the South on Saturday then will be suppressed southward Sunday as a strong northern stream shortwave and attendant cold front pushes across the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic. Most guidance shows the cold front pushing across the area during the day Monday. There will be limited moisture with the front with only a shallow saturated layer mainly below 700mb and have kept PoPs below mentionable most areas except OBX. SWly flow will develop Saturday into Sunday bringing a warming trend across the area. Highs Saturday are expected to be in the mid 70s on Saturday and around 80 on Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast Saturday, then mid to upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s coast early next week. Marine SHORT TERM Through Tonight As of 1:45pm Tuesday...The waters off of Cape Hatteras are expected to continue fluctuating between 5-6 ft through this evening, so SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) continue for this area. Winds will remain northeasterly at 10-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt, mainly south of Cape Hatteras. Due to the persistent winds and long NE fetch, 6 ft seas will overspread the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet late tonight and continue to build to 7 ft tomorrow morning. Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday As of 330am Tuesday...High pressure will build into the area from the NW through the long term bringing primarily north to northeast winds across the waters. Winds will be around 10-20 kt Wednesday morning, then will briefly diminish to below 15 kt Wednesday afternoon and evening. N to NE winds increase to around 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30-35 kt possible by Thursday afternoon and continue through Thursday night as Hurricane Milton passes south of the waters bringing tightening pressure gradients and building seas across the waters. Seas will be around 4-7 ft central and northern waters and 3-6 ft southern waters Wednesday and Wednesday night, then build to 5-10 ft Thursday and Friday, highest across the southern and central waters. Winds will diminish Friday night and then become W to SW around 10 kt or less on Saturday with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft. Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 330am Tuesday...Long period swell from distant Hurricane Kirk will gradually fade today into Wednesday but they still post an increased rip current risk and strong shore break across the ENC beaches. TC Milton will pass well south of the area on Thursday. Large swell from this system will likely impact the beaches for the latter half of the week. Prolonged moderate NE winds through the week will increase Thursday as gradients tighten between high pressure centered northwest of the area and TC Milton which could also bring a threat of minor sound-side flooding across the southern portions of the Pamlico Sound, Neuse River and eastern Carteret County. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 3am EDT Saturday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7am Wednesday to 6am EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158. |
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