Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Rough. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Tonight...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Rough. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Rough. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Rough, Diminishing To Choppy After Midnight. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Choppy. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Choppy. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 645am EDT Tuesday September 30 2025 Synopsis Tropical Storm Imelda and distant Hurricane Humberto are expected to remain offshore, but will bring coastal impacts to the area through late week due to their respective swells. Strong high pressure will build in from the north the next few days and into the weekend bringing with it a prolonged period of strong NE winds midweek and cooler and drier conditions mid to late week. Near Term - Today As of 645am Tue...Latest analysis shows surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic and NE, while Imelda and Humberto continue to churn offshore over the Western Atlantic. Both tropical cyclones will gradient push E-NE and further offshore today. The gradient will continue to tighten between the high and the two cyclones, with NE winds increasing, gusting 20-30 mph today. Light showers continue stream in from the S/SW this morning. Weak impulse embedded within the Imelda tropical moisture plume will continue to support areas of light showers through late morning and early afternoon. Models continue to trend drier overall today. Will keep chance probability of precipitation through afternoon, with best chances across the southern half of the area. Dry air will gradually filter in from the north this afternoon with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) falling below 1.5" late. Widespread clouds and NE flow will again keep temps in the 70s. Short Term - Tonight As of 250am Tue...High pressure will continue to build in from the north, as Imelda and Humberto gradually push E-NE and further offshore. Gradient between the systems will continue to tighten as strong NE winds continue. Wind Advisory remains in effect for Hatteras/Ocracoke Islands and Downeast tonight, with NE wind gusts up to 45 mph. Drier air begins to filter in overnight. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s. Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday As of 1230am Tuesday... Key Messages: - Strong high pressure building in from the north will lead to a prolonged period of gusty NE winds this week. - Wind Advisory continues for portions of the Outer Banks and Down East Carteret County through Wednesday. Imelda and Humberto will quickly list ENE away from the region on Wednesday as an upper level shortwave slides off the Northeast Coast. Surface high pressure will build in from the north while upper ridging builds across the Eastern CONUS through the remainder of the long term. Strong pressure gradients between the high building in and the tropical systems off the coast will continue to bring winds around 25-35 mph with gust around 40-45 mph across portions of the Outer Banks on Wednesday, strongest across Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands and Down East Carteret County, and continue the Wind Advisory here. Inland areas will see gusts around 25-35 mph. NE winds gradually weaken Wednesday night through the end of the week, then veer to easterly as the surface high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Generally dry weather is expected for most area through the long term although a coastal trough offshore may produce periods of showers across the coastal waters. Some guidance does show some of these showers working their way toward the coast, especially over weekend into next week with easterly flow developing as the highs moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Temps will be a few degrees below normal through the work week with highs in the mid 70s. Temps warm to near normal over the weekend with highs around 80/lower 80s. Marine SHORT TERM Through Tonight As of 645am Tue...Treacherous conditions will continue across the waters with strong NE winds and dangerous seas. Latest obs show NE winds 15-25 kt and seas 5-11 ft. The gradient continues to tighten between high pressure to the north and offshore Hurricane Humberto and TS Imelda to the E and SE. Conditions will continue to deteriorate across the waters today and tonight, with long period swell (8-11 ft/13-15 sec) and strong NE winds 20-30 kt gusting 25-40 kt. Seas will build to 8-15 ft today. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters and sounds, with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the inland rivers. Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday As of 1am Tuesday... Key Message - Dangerous marine conditions expected through the long term, with swell from two tropical cyclones impacting the waters as well as strong NEerly gradient winds expected through much of the work-week. Tight pressure gradients from high pressure building in from the north and two tropical systems across the western Atlantic will bring strong NE winds through much of the week. Most waters will continue to experience Gale Force winds on Wednesday (except the inland rivers), then will see gradual improvement through the week as the tropical systems move further offshore. Seas expected to peak around 10-15 ft on Wednesday, then will very slowly subside through the rest of the long term as long period swell from both tropical system will continue to impact the waters, however seas 6 ft or greater expected to keep SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions through the rest of the long term. Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 250am Tue...Building long period swell and strong NE winds will lead to minor to moderate oceanside flooding over the next few days. Strong NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding for soundside areas adj to the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers. CF Warnings and Advisories continue with waters levels rising today. Oceanside...The forecast remains on track as long period swell from distant Humberto is expected to peak today into Wednesday. While Humberto begins to move away later this week, swell from Imelda then quickly arrives into the area and likely peaks closer to the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe. As a result, swell impacts are expected to last much of the upcoming week, which include dangerous rip currents, large breaking waves, and the potential for ocean overwash, coastal flooding, and wave runup impacts. Most significant impacts at the moment look to be across portions of the OBX near Hatteras Island and Ocracoke where 2 to 3 ft AGL of inundation is possible today into Thu given weakened dune structures across the area. 1 to 2 ft of inundation is possible across oceanside Crystal Coast and NOBX. The strong NEerly winds due to the strong high pressure may exacerbate the issues brought on from the strong swell. High Surf Advisories remain for the entire coast for rough surf and beach erosion. Soundside...Prolonged period of strong NE winds will lead to water level rises the next few days. 1-2ft of inundation is expected along the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo rivers. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11am this morning to 8am EDT Friday for NCZ080-094-194. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205. High Surf Advisory from 11am this morning to 11am EDT Wednesday for NCZ195-199. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11pm this evening to 8pm EDT Thursday for NCZ195-199. High Surf Advisory until 8am EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Warning from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT Friday for NCZ196-204-205. Wind Advisory from 8pm this evening to 8pm EDT Wednesday for NCZ196-204-205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT Friday for NCZ203. Marine Gale Warning from 6pm this evening to 6pm EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 2pm this afternoon to 8pm EDT Wednesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Thursday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 7pm this evening to 8pm EDT Wednesday for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT Wednesday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154-156-158. |
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