Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
10 - 15
10 - 15
15 - 20
20 - 25
20 - 25
|Today...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Ne This Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop Late This Morning And Afternoon.|
|Tonight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight.|
|Fri...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Choppy.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves Rough. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves Rough, Diminishing To Choppy After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon, Then Diminishing To Light Chop.|
|Mon...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S. Waves Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
641am EDT Thu Mar 30 2023
Weak cold front tracks south across the area today with high pressure ridging building back into ENC tonight. High pressure slides offshore Friday. A strong cold front approaching from the west brings the threat for gusty winds, coastal flooding, and severe weather Saturday. High pressure once again builds into the Eastern CONUS Sunday, remaining in control through midweek.
Near Term - Today
As of 640am Thu... No significant changes to the forecast as of this update as we start the day out rather chilly. Cold front is currently nearing the NC/VA border and should be entering into the region shortly. Lows got down into the mid to upper 30s across our inland zones with 40s found along the coast and across the OBX as light winds and clear skies remain in place.
Prev Disc... Getting into the day today, a weak cold front currently located to the north in Virginia will continue to drop south today tracking cross the region this morning into early this afternoon while weakening and eventually dissipating. Behind this frontal passage S'rly winds will shift to a N'rly direction with drier air mixing down as well. This will help to drop dewpoints across the region this afternoon and evening as well as keep skies mo sunny for much of the day. There is some suggestion that enough mid level moisture may be accompanied by this passing front for some diurnally driven Cumulus clouds this afternoon but no real impacts are expected from this. A fairly widespread temp gradient will exist today given this frontal passage with our SW'rn zones likely getting into the mid to upper 60s while to the NE and across the N'rn OBX temps struggle to get into the low to mid 50s.
Short Term - Tonight
As of 4am Thu... With the cold front dissipated, high pressure ridging will build in from the north and west allowing for us to once again remain mo clear overnight tonight. Temps will however not get as low as Thursday morning as high pressure ridging will quickly push offshore out ahead of an approaching upper level trough to the west and its associated surface low and fronts. This will allow winds to become SE-S'rly around 5 mph or so overnight. Once again will have to monitor the threat for some patchy fog as the signal is slightly stronger this evening that a low level inversion will set up trapping moisture and with light winds in place the threat for fog may increase. For now not confident enough in fog development to put it in the forecast just yet but trends will need to be monitored. Low temps Thursday night get into the low to mid 40s.
Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
As of 4am Thu...Warming trend Friday, with strong winds warm/humid conditions Saturday, with a few strong storms possible. A cold front moves through Saturday night, clearing the way for high pressure to remain in control Sunday through the middle of next week.
Friday and Saturday...High pressure establishes itself offshore Saturday, with increasing S to SW flow through the day bringing warm air and moisture advection. LLJ arrives late in the day and overnight Friday, with a few showers possibly developing mainly north of the Tar/Pamlico River, but dry mid levels and lack of forcing will keep mostly dry conditions in place through Friday night.
Robust stacked low pressure moving from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada will prompt a cold front to approach from the west Saturday, crossing the area Saturday night into early Sunday morning. There is increasing confidence that a very strong S/SW LLJ will slide over ENC early Saturday morning, persisting into Saturday evening. Deep mixing and strong/gusty winds will occur Saturday, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph still expected across much of the area, with Wind Advisories potentially needed as the event draws closer.
The storm threat picture is beginning to come into better focus, with some form of convective initiation mechanism still being the primary missing piece. Still, most guidance continues to show some scattered showers/storms, especially in the afternoon. Very strong winds in the lowest 3 km, with the 50 kt jet reaching below 925 mb late in the afternoon, and around 1000 J/kg despite mostly cloudy skies, will result in very fast storm motions, and the potential for even modest convective elements to mix 50-60+ kt winds gusts to the surface. Storm Prediction Center has place ENC in the marginal severe outlook category for Saturday accordingly. The strong winds will also bring a minor coastal flooding threat to portions of ENC; see the COASTAL FLOODING section below for more info.
Sunday through Thursday...Zonal flow aloft slowly trends to ridging Sunday through the early part of next week, with surface high pressure building in from the west behind the cold front Sunday, passing overhead/nearby Sunday night, the setting up off the coast early next week. Lack of substantial deep moisture, instability, or forcing keeps a dry forecast in place through at least Wednesday, with temps trending from near normal Sunday to above normal for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. A general weakness in the ridge north of the area could bring rain chances back into the forecast by mid-to-late next week, but no significant hazards are apparent at this time.
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/... As of 400am Thu... We begin the period rather quiet with widespread 2-4 ft seas and general 5-15 kt W-NW'rly winds. Winds will veer this morning becoming N'rly and increase to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts at times late this morning and early this afternoon as the front tracks S across our waters. Seas will also build to 3-5 ft across the area with the central waters potentially seeing 4-6 ft seas this afternoon into early tonight. As such, have recently issued a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the central waters from Oregon Inlet south to Ocracoke Inlet for this threat. Elsewhere wind gusts will not be sustained long enough to necessitate SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) across the reminder of the waters. Front eventually dissipates tonight and high pressure builds back into the area overnight. This will allow winds to decrease closer to 5-10 kts and become more SE to S'rly tonight. Seas will also lower back down to 2-4 ft across all waters this evening as well.
LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... As of 4am Thu...High pressure sets up offshore Friday, with steadily increasing S to SW winds thorough the day. Strong winds arrive over the waters late Friday and Friday night, with conditions further deteriorating Saturday. Strong Gales will bring hazardous conditions for mariners through most of Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the waters overnight. Seas peak around 8-12+ ft in very rough local windswell Saturday afternoon/evening. Improving marine conditions early next week as high pressure builds in from the west Sunday, moves overhead Sunday night, then moves offshore Monday, bringing persistent moderate S to SW winds through the first half of next week.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 4am Thu...Strong/gusty S to SW winds expected late Friday night through Saturday evening will likely pile water up across the northern Pamlico Sound. At least minor flooding is possible for areas around soundside Nags Head and Roanoke Island Saturday and Saturday night. Additionally, large southerly swell/beach erosion and some elevated water levels are expected for the beaches south of Cape Hatteras Saturday and Saturday night, with localized ocean overwash possible for very vulnerable dune structures.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 9pm EDT this evening for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154.