Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
| Today...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt Late This Morning, Then Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt This Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop Late This Morning, Then Increasing To A Moderate Chop This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Rain. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. |
| Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 700am EST Fri Jan 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A potential changeover to snow on Sunday remains uncertain, but the best chances for any accumulation look to be inland over the coastal plain. Another Arctic blast expected early next week with lows/winds chills in the teens. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Bitter cold this morning with wind chills dropping to around 15 degrees through 9 am. 2) Cold rain expected Sunday with the potential for a change over to snow with some minor accumulations possible. 3) Another Arctic blast expected early next week with lows and wind chills in the teens Monday through Wednesday mornings. 3) Marine ale conditions persist across the coastal waters early this morning, but conditions quickly improve later today. KEY MESSAGE 1... Temperatures have fallen into the 20s across ENC as an Arctic airmass continues to build in. Wind chills have dropped into the upper teens in some spots, and temps/wind chills will continue to decrease through sunrise this morning with wind chills bottoming out around 15 degrees. Temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 40s this afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2... A potentially favorable upper air pattern for winter weather will develop this weekend with a very deep and cold upper level trough reaching down to the GOA. As this trough pivots eastward Saturday into Sunday, a surface low is expected to form along a surface boundary off the SE coast, and deepen as it moves offshore Sunday. Models continue to show a wide range with the surface low track along/off the NC coast which will ultimately determine the extent of snowfall across the region, which has not lead to increasing confidence with this system. If the low forms too close to the coast not enough cold air will be in place for any wintry precipitation except for across the northern coastal plain, while a solution farther offshore would allow for sufficient cold air to change rain to snow across much of ENC. Current thinking is that precipitation will begin as rain early Sunday, then potentially change over to snow for a time as the low pulls away from the area and low level NW flow increases allowing the column to cool sufficiently. Guidance still showing wide range of liquid precipitation amounts from as little as 0.1"-0.2", to nearly an inch in the wettest model. As for accumulating snowfall, there remains ensemble support for up to an inch or two, with a majority of the deterministic guidance showing less than a half inch of accumulation. A quick warm up into the 60s on Saturday, will likely limit snow accumulations due to warmer ground temps. We will continue to closely monitor the trends for this system. KEY MESSAGE 3... Another Arctic blast is expected behind the low pressure system Sunday, leading to well below normal conditions Monday through Wednesday. Low temps will reach the upper teens to low 20s, and when factoring in wind chills it will feel like 10-20 degrees each morning. Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest and could meet Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Marine Gale conditions will persist across most of the coastal waters for the next few hours with Small Craft conditions elsewhere before conditions quickly improve later this morning. Unfortunately, tranquil conditions won't last long, and by this evening winds will again be increasing, this time out of the SW. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed for the warmer coastal waters where frequent wind gusts of 25-30 kts are expected tonight through most of Saturday. Elsewhere conditions will remain below criteria and generally SW 10-20 kts. A period of 6 ft seas are likely Saturday over the Gulf Stream waters. Outlook: A brief period of improving conditions will develop Saturday night with Small Craft conditions likely returning to portions of the coastal waters Sunday through Tuesday. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST this morning for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 9am EST this morning for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Saturday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154- 156-158. |
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