Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Choppy.|
|Thu...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves Light Chop.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight.|
|Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt In The Evening, Then Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1033pm EST Wednesday Nov 30 2022
A strong cold front will track across the region tonight with dry high pressure building back for Thursday and Friday. Another front, or coastal trough, could then impact ENC Saturday into Sunday with more unsettled weather returning.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
As of 1030pm Wed...The cold front has pushed to the Crystal Coast and will be offshore in the next hour. Winds are shifting to NW behind the front and become quite gusty as Cold Air Advection ramps up. Gusts expected to be around 20-30 mph. A much cooler and drier airmass will advect in overnight. Evening update mainly captures latest trends but otherwise the forecast is on track.
Previous discussion...Latest analysis shows surface low over southern Ontario with attendant cold front moving through the Mid- Atlantic, central NC and down into the Gulf of Mexico. The front will continue to push eastward and through eastern NC this evening. Showers continue to push off the Outer Banks this afternoon. There remains a chance of frontally-forced showers immediately along the cold front late this afternoon and early this evening, although CAMs are not as excited about this solution as previous runs, and not much seems to be happening upstream yet. Best forcing remains well to the north with the mid level trough. Much cooler and drier airmass advects into the area overnight as strong high pressure builds in from the west, with skies clearing from west to east. Winds shift to the NW, remaining breezy along the coast. Lows falling into the low/mid 30s inland and upper 30s to mid 40s along the coast.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through 6pm Thursday
As of 220pm Wed...Strong high pressure will continue to build in from the west as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Cold Air Advection continues through the day, with cool and dry airmass in place. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) falling to around 0.1". Low level thickness values and sunny skies support below normal temps with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday
As of 245am Wednesday...Relatively settled pattern continues through early next week, with a mostly-dry cold frontal passage this weekend, then another wave with limited moisture on Monday.
Thursday night through the Weekend...Mainly zonal flow aloft through Friday, with high pressure slowly building overhead from the west at the surface. Strong subsidence brings a high confidence dry forecast with ample sunshine. Cold Air Advection Thursday wanes through Friday, with temps Thursday running about 10 degrees below normal, trending closer to normal for Friday.
A weak H5 shortwave will pass north of the area this weekend, bringing a cold front through ENC Saturday night into Sunday morning. Persistent mid-level dry air will keep this frontal passage mainly dry, but a couple isolated light showers cannot be completely ruled out. Otherwise, Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the week, with highs into the 70 for most locations save the Northern Outer Banks, with ensuing Cold Air Advection Sunday swinging temps back well below normal.
Early Next Week
Stalled front sets up across the Southeast early next week. Current expectation is for the front to mainly remain well south of the area, but a very low amplitude shortwave aloft Monday could bring just enough destabilization locally that a northward jog from the front would bring some scattered showers to out area, and low end chance POPs have been included in the forecast beginning Monday.
High falls aloft begin Tuesday, but the remains significant model variability with respect to the surface pattern Tuesday and Wednesday, so persistent low end chance POPs and above normal temps seem most appropriate forecast for the time being.
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 1030pm Wed...Latest obs show seas around 3-6 ft and W to NW winds around 10-20 kt, except 20-30 kt across the outer central/southern waters where warmer gulf stream waters are allowing for better mixing. The cold front is pushing into the southern coastal waters and will push east of the coastal waters in the next hour are two. Winds will abrubtly shift to NW and become quite gusty behind the front and we could potentially could see a few gusts to Gale Force behind the front overnight.
SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) continue for the waters, sounds and rivers. Cold Air Advection will continue Thursday as strong high pressure builds in from the west. Gusty N/NW winds early slowly diminishing through the day. Seas will be slow to subside, and 6 ft may linger across the central waters into Thu night.
LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 3am Wednesday...Waning Cold Air Advection becoming moderate NE Thursday night in response to high pressure ridging in from the west. High pressure continues to build in from the W Friday, pushing offshore Friday night with a cold front approaching from the west Saturday. As is typical this time of year, the best mixing/strongest S winds ahead of the approaching cold front Saturday and Saturday night will occur over/near the Gulf Stream, with much less mixing near and inshore. Moderate to breezy Cold Air Advection develops behind the cold front Sunday into Monday, with near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible, especially across the coastal waters.
3-5 ft seas then generally prevail Friday through Saturday in a mix of weak local and medium period swells. Seas could reach 6 ft again Sunday into Monday with the return of breezy N winds.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Thursday for AMZ131-230- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Thursday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Thursday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Thursday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST Thursday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory until 3pm EST Thursday for AMZ156-158.