Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
| Today...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S This Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat Late This Morning, Then Increasing To Light Chop This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Thu Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Fri...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. Showers Likely. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 732am EDT Tuesday April 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marine conditions continue to improve and have allowed the SCA to expire for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters south of Ocracoke Inlet. Latest guidance has trended farther north with the low pressure system this weekend bringing increased precipitation chances. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A progressive pattern continues this week with additional opportunities for rain mid week and again this weekend. There is a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms with the mid week system. Marine: Elevated seas will continue to bring SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions across the coastal waters north of Ocracoke Inlet into tonight. Low end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible Wednesday night into early Thursday for portions of the coastal waters. KEY MESSAGE 1...A progressive pattern will continue through the week with another low pressure system forecast to push across the area late Wednesday followed by another southern stream system potentially impacting the area next weekend. Upper ridging over the area today will weaken as dampening shortwave energy approaches the area. Associated low pressure will lift north of the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front pushing into the Ohio River Valley today. Showers and thunderstorms moving into the Appalachians early this morning will push into the piedmont but will dissipate as they approach ENC as forcing weakens. Will see increasing clouds this afternoon but most guidance keeps ENC dry today, although a few do bring light Quantitative Precipitation Forecast this afternoon. With the sub-cloud layer remaining very dry do not expect more than a few sprinkles at most and continue to Probability of Precipitation below mentionable. Another low will pass north of the area Wednesday lifting a warm front through the morning hours with the trailing cold front pushing across the area Wednesday night. A high shear/modest CAPE environment will be in place ahead of the front that could produce strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. 0-6km bulk shear forecast to be around around 40 kt, however instability is a bit more uncertain with global models showing mainly around 500-1000 J/Kg, although some HiRes models are over 1000 J/Kg. Current forecast sides with the development of OVC skies associated with the warm front, but there still remains a chance of at least some partial clearing later in the day ahead of the cold front, which could allow some of the higher CAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy - high values indicate potential for severe weather) advertised to come to fruition. Storm Prediction Center has the region in a Marginal Risk of severe storms for Wednesday (level 1 of 5). Best forcing will be north of the area and most guidance keeps precipitation amounts around a quarter inch, however could see higher amounts in thunderstorms. Run to run consistency among the models continues to be poor for the system next weekend, however 00z guidance has trended a bit farther north with the low, now tracking off the NC coast. Given the inconsistency, confidence remains low in the forecast details, but it is an encouraging trend. While rainfall amounts through the week will not have much impact with alleviating the drought, hopefully precipitation and higher humidities will help reduce the wildfire threat across the region. Marine Current observations showing N to NE winds around 15 kt or less with seas around 3-6 ft. Winds will become variable today as high pressure transits the area, becoming southerly late tonight but should remain less than 15 kt. Seas will continue to slowly subside through tonight becoming 2-5 ft by late tonight allow for the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to end for the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet. Outlook: A low pressure system is forecast to pass north of the area Wednesday night and could see low end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions over the nearshore coastal waters S of Oregon Inlet redevelop late Wednesday afternoon night into Thursday. Another low pressure system may pass across or just south of the waters late in the week. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Wednesday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. |
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