Marine Weather Net

Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRI

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SAT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ137 Forecast Issued: 1013 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Overnight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Showers Late.
Fri...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely.
Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers.
Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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1013 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
The remnants of Beta will reach the Carolinas tonight leading to periods of rain lasting into Saturday. A cold front will move across the area Monday night and early Tuesday, followed by cool high pressure for mid to late next week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
823pm EDT Thu September 24 2020

Synopsis
The remnants of Beta will reach the Carolinas tonight leading to periods of rain lasting into Saturday. A cold front will move across the area Monday night and early Tuesday, followed by cool high pressure for mid to late next week.

Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
As of 745pm Thursday...Abundant mid and high clouds continue to stream across the area this evening. KMHX radar showing most of the FA dry with earlier light rain/sprinkles having moved offshore, however additional returns to the west will move into the area and continue the increasing Probability of Precipitation trend through the overnight. 25/00z KMHX sounding showing very dry air remains below 16k ft and it will take a while to saturate the column and expect the precipitation fairly light. Temps have cooled into the mid 60s inland to lower 70s southern coastal sections but clouds will limit additional cooling and continue to forecast low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

Short Term - Friday
As of 345pm Thursday...As the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta track from Mississippi into the Carolinas, rain chances increase Friday. Would expect mostly light stratiform showers during the early part of Friday, with things becoming more convective during the afternoon into early evening. Instability will be modest and mostly near the coast but some decent low-level shear is forecast after 21z into the late evening hours of Friday. As a result, Storm Prediction Center has most of our area in a Marginal Threat of severe weather Friday afternoon/evening with some strong gusts and an isolated tornado possible. Parts of our area are also in a Slight threat of excessive rain tomorrow as precipitable water values surge to around 2 inches. Expect the highest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast to be inland during the early afternoon and moving to the coast during the evening hours, same as the severe weather threat. Warm temperatures in the mid to upper 70s expected for Thursday.

Long Term - Friday Night Through Thursday
As of 230pm Thu...Unsettled into the first part of the weekend as moisture from remnant Beta streams northeast over the Carolinas combining with a south to southeast flow of moisture off of the Atlantic. This will result in numerous to widespread showers and chance of tstms. This will pose small flash flood and svr threats into early Sat morning. A cold front is forecast to move slowly across the area Monday night, with deep troughing developing across the eastern US.

Friday Night through Sunday...Models continue to trend wetter Fri night into Sat. Consensus is for a wet period Friday night, maybe into Saturday morning, as warm advection and moisture advection from the remnants of Beta and low level southerly flow off of the Atlantic support numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. Models seem to be trending a bit slower, hanging onto the heavy rainfall into the first part of Sat. Locally heavy rainfall likely with potential for minor flooding and localized flash flooding. Highs will gradually warm through the weekend, into the lower 80s by Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper flow is forecast to become more amplified next week with an Eastern upper trough developing. The leading edge of the trough will be associated with a strong surface cold front which will move slowly across the Mid Atlantic and will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday night. The front is currently forecast to push through Monday night and early Tue. Lowered pops a bit mid week, though strong dynamics aloft could squeak out a few showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s through Wed, then back into the 70s Thu as cooler and drier air filters in.

Marine
Short Term /Tonight and Friday/... As of 4pm Thursday...Winds continue SW at 5-10 knots over the coastal waters and Sounds with seas at 2-4 feet and lingering 11-12 second swells. Winds should be mostly SW 5-10 knots tonight, but increasing to 10-15 knots southern waters, and then backing to more SE/S on Friday. Seas will continue at 2-4 feet.

Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/... As of 405pm Thursday...S/SE winds 5-15 kt increasing to 10-20 kt Friday night with seas building to 3-5 ft. S/SE winds will diminish a bit Sat with seas 2-4 ft. Right now Sunday looks like the best boating day with winds generally 10 kt or less and seas subsiding to 2-3 ft. A cold front will approach the waters Monday, moving through Monday night and early Tuesday. SW winds increasing to 15-20 kt Monday afternoon and evening, with seas building to 3-5 ft.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None. MARINE...None.