Marine Weather Net

Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ137 Forecast Issued: 629 PM EST Sat Dec 05 2020

Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.
Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.
Tue Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Wed...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
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629 PM EST Sat Dec 5 2020
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
Colder high pressure to builds in from the west through the weekend. Another strong storm system is then expected for develop off the NC coast Monday, with high pressure building in behind in through mid week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
639pm EST Sat Dec 5 2020

Synopsis
Colder high pressure to builds in from the west through the weekend. Another strong storm system is then expected for develop off the NC coast Monday, with high pressure building in behind in through mid week.

Near Term - Tonight
As of 640pm Sat...No significant changes needed to previous forecast for update. Strong low pressure system will continue to race NE towards Nova Scotia, allowing the pressure gradient across our region to gradient relax. Stubborn cold air scu will gradient push off the coast overnight, with skies clearing as high pressure builds in. Decent radiational cooling set up expected overnight with clearing skies and light winds inland. Lows overnight will likely drop below freezing west of Hwy 17 into the low 30s with mid- to- upper 30s elsewhere and around 40 deg for the beaches.

Short Term - Sunday
As of 245pm Sat...High pressure will move overhead Sunday, allowing for mostly sunny skies and calm winds. Low-level thicknesses begin to increase through the afternoon, allowing temps to warm up slightly, but remain below climo. Highs in the low-to-mid 50s. Clouds will begin to inc towards the late afternoon/early evening hours as the next storm system sets up in the Southeast.

Long Term - Sunday Night Through Saturday
As of 3am Saturday...A series of coastal lows brings more precipitation to the area Sunday night through Monday night. Chilly and dry weather returns for Tuesday through Thursday under the influence of high pressure, before upper level heights rise with milder temperatures late in the week.

Sunday night through Monday night...Surface low pressure is forecast by most of the medium range models to develop and move just south of the CWA Sunday night into Monday, producing numerous showers. This will occur as two pieces of mid-level energy convergence over the deep south producing anomalous low 500 mb heights. The GFS is a bit drier than some of the other models, but used blend which keeps Probability of Precipitation in the 40-50 percent range through the period. These Probability of Precipitation will likely need to be raised if current trends in the guidance continue. The rain will be quite chilly as lows Sunday night will be upper 30s to lower 40s, with highs Monday in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Any precipitation should end by midnight Monday night.

Tuesday through Friday...Most of the midweek period will be rather chilly. Tuesday night looks to be the coldest night with lows in the mid to upper 20s over most of the CWA, except mid 30s Outer Banks. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, before moderating to the upper 50s to around 60 degrees by Thursday. As mid-level heigheights build behind the departing low, highs moderate nicely into the low to mid 60s by Friday. No precipitation is expected for the midweek period.

Marine
Short Term /Through Sunday/... As of 640pm Sat...Dropped SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the southern waters based on obs. Latest obs show NW winds 10-20 kt with seas 5-8 ft north of Ocracoke and 3-5 ft south. Winds calming quickly across the region as strong low pressure in New England races off NEwrd towards Nova Scotia, easing pressure gradients over the Mid Atlantic waters. Light Wrly flow around 5-10 kts expected by Sunday afternoon. Seas will have a delayed response, but continue to subside overnight through Sunday. Seas 5-8 ft along the central and northern waters will subside to 3-5 ft by Sunday morning.

Long Term - Sunday night through Thursday: As of 320am Saturday...Winds 5-15 knots Sunday night through Monday. As a wave of surface low moves offshore, winds increase to 20-25 knots from the N/NW Monday night into Tuesday and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will be needed as seas build to as much as 6-7 feet. Westerly winds subside to 10-15 knots by Wednesday, but seas will remain elevated.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory until 5am EST Sunday for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory until 11am EST Sunday for AMZ150-152.