Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast
| Tonight...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop This Evening, Then Increasing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. |
| Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Rain. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. |
| Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Wed Night...W Winds Around 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 201pm EST Sat Jan 25 2025 Synopsis High pressure will continue to build into the region through this weekend. A weak front will bring a chance of rain Monday, with dry conditions Tuesday as high pressure becomes entrenched over the Deep South. The high will shift offshore later next week and a large degree of uncertainty exists in the forecast beyond Wednesday as a series of upper level shortwaves move over the eastern US. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 2pm Sat... Key Messages: -Can't rule out some patches of Black Ice overnight as some of the snow pack still remains -Still cold overnight with lows inland in the 20s High pressure centered to the south will gradually shift offshore during the next 24 hours but still be the primary influence on our weather through Sunday. Skies are currently clear and winds light, but the gradient will tighten late tonight with the potential for a light W breeze developing inland and guidance is indicating areas of Cirrus clouds streaming in tonight. Both of these should act to limit radiational cooling, at least at times. However, not convinced that winds stay decoupled all night, and the Cirrus looks thin at satellite and there will still be some snow pack to contend with. Thus thought it prudent to ride the low side of guidance envelope for lows inland with mins mostly in the mid 20s but low 20s in sheltered locations. With temps below freezing inland for most of the night, another round of black ice formation is possible, but its impact should be more isolated as a large chunk of the snowpack continues to melt away today. Short Term - Sunday As of 2pm Sat...High pressure will continue to influence the weather with westerly flow aiding a noticeable warming of temps. Will forecast highs in the low 50s but MOS guidance is indicating potential for widespread mid 50s. With these temps any residual snowpack will completely melt in the afternoon. Expecting sunshine filtered through Cirrus clouds at times throughout the day. Long Term - Sunday Night Through Saturday As of 215am Saturday... KEY POINTS: - Warming trend continues through Wednesday - Monday 20-30% chance of light rain south of hwy 264, likely dry along and north of 264 - A lot of uncertainty in the forecast Wednesday afternoon onwards, slight chances of rain Wednesdaypm and Saturday Sunday (1/26): Sunday a trough of low pressure sweeps through to our north, weakening the high pressure just offshore. However, further to the south, high pressure remains largely unaffected by this trough and ridging extends north and east over ENC keeping us dry. A weak cold front at 800-900mb with little to no surface wind shift will move through from NW to SE Sunday afternoon/evening. While we could see some cloud cover along this front, no precip is expected thanks to dry air below 500mb. Temps Sunday a couple degrees warmer (around 50F) than today despite the cloud cover. Monday (1/27): Monday a weak, E-W oriented elevated front (500mb) will sink S through the FA upping cloud coverage and increasing precip chances. Locally we'll remain sandwiched between the upper trough over Eern CAN and the Sern stream system crossing Nern Gulf coast states. Most guidance suggests the precipitation remaining south of us. However, the GFS (Global Forecast System) has been consistent in showing precipitation reaching the southern half of the CWA. While the GFS is the outlier, I am not certain enough to discount this outcome. Still trended downwards with PoPs, now 10-20% (formerly 20-30%) chance south of hwy 264. Dry lower levels of the atmosphere will make it hard pressed for precipitation to reach the ground. If precip moves in, it will likely be very light in nature, and clouds will gradually lower as atmospheric column at the lowest levels moistens with evaporative cooling. By late morning/afternoon, measurable rain may end up reaching the ground thanks to a more favorable moisture profile, but should still remain light. Ptypes are expected to be only rain with this system, but the front end of the precipitation event will have to be worth watching, especially should precipitation start earlier in the morning than currently forecast, while temps are at their coldest. Tuesday (1/28) - Saturday(2/1): Confidence decreases behind the front through the work-week with questions about where the front will end up, and how the boundary will react/move in response weak waves traveling through the upper level low over Eern CAN. Warming trend ensues mid-week, with highs climbing to the mid to upper 50s Tuesday. As of right now, the two "most likely" periods of possible rainfall are Wednesday night and Saturday. However, I do expect PoPs to fluctuate quite a bit during this period until there is more model consensus on the upper level low and the amplitude and timing of associated shortwaves. Wednesday night we have a low sweeping across New England, with its associated cold front moving through the region. Strong high pressure builds in behind this cold front, and will keep us dry Thursday and Friday. Saturday starts to shift offshore as low sweeps across the great lakes. The persistence of this high will be key in determining if we get precipitation Saturday or if it shields us from sufficient moisture. Marine SHORT TERM /through Sunday/... As of 2pm Sat...Though marine conditions are expected to remain below advisory levels through Sunday, moderate W flow is forecast to develop late tonight into Sunday morning. NW winds are currently 5-10 kt this afternoon. Overnight winds are forecast to back to the W and increase to 10-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt over the outer southern and central waters where the warmest SST's are located. These winds will continue into Sunday morning then diminish to 10-15 kt Sunday afternoon as the gradient relaxes. Seas 2-3 ft late today will build to 3-4 ft tonight with some 5 ft seas over the outer waters in the stronger flow. Sunday afternoon seas will subside to 2-3 ft with 4 ft seas over the outer waters. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 330am Saturday...Monday pleasant boating conditions return, although there are chances of light rain for marine zones south of the Alligator River, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds, and Oregon Inlet. Tuesday winds pick up again as a trough of low pressure moves across the Northeast. While we will remain dry, pinched pressure gradient will result in SW gusts up to 25 kt for coastal waters Tuesday. SW flow will usher in warmer air, but with how cold the inland sounds and rivers are, do not expect much mixing over these zones. As a result, wind should remain lighter and below small craft criteria as long as flow is SW for inland sounds and rivers. Tuesday waves increase to 3-5 in response to the higher winds, with some 6 footers possible along the gulf stream. Wednesday winds pick up again, this time 25-30 kts for Gulf Stream, becoming 10-20kts for inland sounds and rivers as a stronger surface low pivots across the northeast. Waves increase to 3-6 ft in response to the winds. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine None. |
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