South Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Northeast Winds 18 To 23 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Late In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 18 To 23 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots Becoming East 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.|
|Sunday...West Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
941 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020
A weak surface low will track eastward across the northern Gulf, or just south of the Alabama and the northwest Florida coast through this afternoon. A moderate to strong easterly to northeasterly flow will continue over the marine area through this evening. Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms can also be expected with this pattern through early this evening. A light to moderate northerly flow will persist over the marine area through the remainder of the week as a weak surface ridge of high pressure builds over the northern Gulf states. A moderate to strong northwest flow can be expected over the weekend in the wake of a cold front that moves across the region late Friday night through early Saturday.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL
614am CST Wednesday Jan 29 2020
See updated information for land areas and aviation discussion below.
Widespread rain with mostly embedded showers continues to spread eastward over the much of the forecast area early this morning associated with a weakening shortwave trough in the mid levels approaching from the west combined with a weak surface low tracking eastward over the adjacent gulf waters of MS...AL and NWFL. With limited conditional or elevated instability throughout the day will continue to mention only a slight chance for thunderstorms during the day today moving off to the east quickly this evening. With this pattern no severe weather is expected. With plenty of rain and clouds expected temperatures will range from the lower to middle 50s for most inland areas and the lower 60s along the immediate coast. 32/ee
Near Term - Now Through Wednesday night
An upper trough which has been advancing across the south central states continues eastward across the central Gulf coast states today then exits to the east tonight. An associated surface low moves from near the Sabine River valley to southeast Louisiana by early this morning, then continues eastward over the adjacent Gulf waters of Alabama and Northwest Florida through this afternoon. The surface low continues quickly eastward and emerges in the western Atlantic late tonight. As the surface low approaches and moves into the region, increased isentropic lift in the 290-300K layer becomes strong and will support categorical probability of precipitation over the entire area today. Surface based instability will remain rather low to nil given the trajectory of the surface low, but elevated instability aloft should allow for some embedded thunderstorms generally over the southern portion of the area during the day today. Mainly dry conditions follow tonight as the surface low exits off to the east. Highs today range from the lower 50s well inland to around 60 near the coast. Lows tonight range from the upper 30s well inland to the mid 40s at the coast. A MODERATE RISK of rip currents will continue along the Gulf beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida through tonight. /29/32
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
A mid level shortwave trough over the Southeast moves off as another trough over the US/western Mexico border swings quickly east. Low level flow shifts to easterly as a weak surface ridge builds southwest over the eastern Conus Thursday into Thursday night. As the Southwestern Conus upper trough continues to swing east over the southern half of the Conus, increasing isentropic upglide over the Southeast will bring rain back the region later Thursday night into Friday. With any instability, elevated or otherwise, remaining well south of the forecast area, am not expecting any rumbles to mix in with the general rain-showers. The precipitation is expected to move east of the forecast area Friday night, bringing another general half an inch of rain to the area before the rain ends.
The increasing cloud cover and rain will bring a tighter diurnal temperature range to the forecast area through the Short Term. Thursday's high temperatures are expected to rise to around seasonal norms, topping out in the low 60s. Low temperatures Thursday night and high temperatures Friday will see the smallest temperature swing, with mid 40s to near 50 expected Thursday night, mid 50s to around 60s expected Friday. As the rain moves off and skies begin to clear, low temperatures Friday night are expected to drop into the mid to upper 40s. /16
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
As this second upper level shortwave trough that has moved over the southeast moves off, another series of shortwave trough dig a mean upper trough over the western Conus, with an upper ridge building over the eastern Conus. Increasing subsidence and southerly flow returning to the region brings a return of above seasonal temperatures to the forecast area through the weekend. High temperatures Saturday in the low 60s are expected, mid to upper 60s Sunday and Monday. Low temperatures Saturday night are expected to drop to an around seasonal upper 30s to low 40s, mid 40s to near 50 Saturday night. Rain returns to the forecast area late Monday through Monday night as the next upper level trough moves over the region. Temperatures MOnday night into Tuesday are expected to continue to rise even more above seasonal norms, with low temperatures Monday night dropping into the mid to upper 50s, low 70s Tuesday as southerly flow continues to move warm, moist air inland over the Southeast. /16
MARINE...A moderate to strong northeasterly wind flow will continue over the marine area through this evening in response to a weak surface low tracking eastward just south of the Alabama and Northwest Florida coast. Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms can be expected with this pattern through early this evening. A light to moderate northerly flow will persist over the marine area through the remainder of the week as a weak surface ridge of high pressure builds over the northern Gulf states. A moderate to strong northwest flow can be expected over the weekend in the wake of a cold front that moves across the region late Friday night through early Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the open Gulf waters of Alabama and Northwest Florida out to 60 nm including lower Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound east of Pascagoula through tonight. 32/ee
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6am CST Thursday for GMZ631-632-650- 655-670-675.