Marine Weather Net

South Mobile Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

MONDAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUESDAY

NE
WINDS
15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ631 Forecast Issued: 450 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Tonight...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Monday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Morning. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Monday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Evening.
Tuesday...Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.
Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.
Wednesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.
Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.
Thursday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...Tropical Storm Conditions Possible.
Friday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers Early In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Late Evening And Overnight. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
654pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022

/issued 457pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TER
Marine
Near Term
(Now through Monday) Issued at 243pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022

An upper level shortwave trough that is rounding the base of an upper trough over the eastern Conus moves off, with a weakening cold front moving south across the forecast area tonight into Monday in response. A drier airmass has settled over the forecast area and nearby today(with precipitable h20 values in the 1.1"-1.4" range), limiting ongoing showers and thunderstorms north and northwest of the forecast area from moving too far south this afternoon. As the front moves south across the forecast area tonight, guidance is advertising a slight chance (at best) of showers and thunderstorms moving south across the forecast area with the front, before the front stalls along the coast early Monday morning. This front is expected to provide the focus for precipitation formation Monday afternoon, mainly along the coast. With limited instability and wind shear, any risk of strong to severe storms will be minimal.

The dry airmass over the forecast area this afternoon will allow for efficient heating. Temperatures well above seasonal norms are expected, even with the proximity of the upper trough stretching south over the eastern Conus. Temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s expected. Tonight, the above seasonal temperatures continue, with an increase in cloud cover from the weakening cold front and an uptick in moisture levels helping to decrease overnight radiational cooling. Lows temperatures ranging from the upper 60s along and north of Highway 84 to low to mid 70s along and south of I- 10 are expected. Somewhat cooler air will overspread the forecast area Monday behind the front, with the northern half of the forecast area most affected. High temperatures ranging from mid 80s along and north of Highway 84 to near 90 along and south of I-10, still above seasonal norms. /16

SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Thursday Night) Issued at 243pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022

A complex short term forecast is in play for the Monday night through Thursday night time frame. A cold front that passed through the area Sunday night into Monday morning will set the stage for much cooler and drier air to work its way into the area during the period. A strong surface high pressure works its way into the Great Lakes region, helping to promote rising surface pressures across the area. On the contrary, Tropical Storm Ian will be moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, attempting to bring lower pressures towards the gulf coast. The net result is a rapidly increasing pressure gradient over the area that will likely bring a fairly decent gradient wind event beginning Wednesday morning and lasting through Friday for much of the area, regardless of the track of Ian. Most global models and even some hi-res short term guidance that are finally getting into range indicate strong 925 to 850mb winds above the surface during the period, upwards of about 35 to 40mph. Considering afternoon heating and a mixed layer developing through the 850mb level on most guidance, I would anticipate these winds to easily transfer to the surface in the form of gusts with sustained winds generally 10 to 15mph lower during the afternoon hours Wednesday and Thursday. A wind advisory may be necessary for this period if confidence increases on higher wind gusts.

Outside of gradient winds, the big story is Ian. Forecast guidance this morning has generally trended slightly east with the center track of the storm. Despite this, the expected impacts remain rather unchanged with strong winds lasting through Friday morning associated with Ian southeast of the I-65 corridor. Rain chances have increased some as our cold front that is situated over the coastal zones will act as a lifting mechanism for the warm, moist airmass being advected northward by Ian. This should result in at least some overrunning precipitation across much of the area, with greatest precipitation amounts expected southeast of the I-65 corridor. At this time, around 1 to 3 inches seems reasonable and is what is presently being forecast Thursday. Very high surf, likely exceeding 10 feet, can be expected beginning Wednesday morning and lasting through Friday morning. This may result in some coastal beach erosion. Rip current risk will also substantially increase, becoming high Tuesday night through Friday owing to the high surf and increasing swell.

Perhaps the bizarre part of the forecast is how cool and dry it will be for much of the period until substantial moisture advection occurs Thursday. We get a decent taste of Fall with highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's Tuesday and Wednesday, becoming lower to middle 70's inland and along/east of the I-65 corridor and middle to upper 70's across southeast MS and far southwestern AL Thursday. Lows will be very cool Monday night, dipping into the lower to middle 50's inland and upper 50's to lower 60's nearer the coast. The rest of the periods lows will feature middle to upper 50's over interior southeastern MS and interior southwestern AL, with lower to middle 60's in the vicinity of the I-65 corridor and points southeast. Dewpoints will be rather low for Tuesday into Wednesday in the upper 30's to lower 40's inland and lower to middle 40's near the coast. This will result in rather dry conditions with humidity values in the 20 to 30% range. This combined with the strong winds may result in increased fire risk, mainly on Wednesday. By Thursday, dew points should be on the increase as Ian advects in higher dewpoints. MM/25

Long Term (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 243pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022

Ultimately, the forecast for this time frame will be largely dependent on where Tropical Storm Ian (projected to become a hurricane) makes landfall. Based on the current guidance from the National Hurricane Center, Ian looks to make landfall somewhere along the panhandle to central Florida peninsula on early Friday morning. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding its overall track and intensity, and with this, our area could end up dry and fairly quiet on Friday, or see much higher rain chances along with wind impacts. Either way, we will continue to see high surf conditions through Friday morning before beginning to subside. Additionally, rip current risk is expected to remain HIGH through Friday before gradually coming down by Friday night. Hopefully, uncertainty in the track forecast will improve over the next 12 to 24 hours. Currently, forecasting breezy conditions, possibly stronger on Friday before subsiding going through Friday afternoon. As for Probability of Precipitation chances, given the current track is forecast to be east of our area the greatest Probability of Precipitation chances will remain on the eastern half of the CWA (County Warning Area) on Friday. As Ian moves further inland, Probability of Precipitation chances should diminish through the rest of the period, but the greatest chances, if Probability of Precipitation do occur remain over the far eastern portion of the CWA through Sunday with chance probability of precipitation lingering for Saturday and slight chance probability of precipitation for Sunday, accounting for the uncertainty with the overall pattern later during this time. JEH/88

Marine
Issued at 243pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022 A cold front moves across the area into Monday morning, bringing moderate northeast winds to the marine zones by Monday evening. Winds begin to increase earnestly by Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, likely reaching small craft advisory criteria as Tropical Storm Ian enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday, gale force wind gusts begin across the offshore marine zones, potentially spreading to the bays and sounds by Wednesday night into Thursday. This is most likely across the FL panhandle bays and sounds where strong tropical storm conditions are possible. Winds should relax into the weekend as Ian pulls away from the area. Seas build significantly Wednesday morning into Thursday with wave heigheights upwards of 10 to 14 feet during that period in offshore waters.

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.