Marine Weather Net

South Mobile Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
8 - 13
KNOTS

MONDAY

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
20
KNOTS

TUESDAY

E
WINDS
13 - 18
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ631 Forecast Issued: 359 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
Tonight...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming East. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.
Monday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Monday Night...East Winds 20 Knots Diminishing To 13 To 18 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday...East Winds 13 To 18 Knots Becoming Southeast 8 To 13 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Wednesday...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming South. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.
Thursday Night...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Friday...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
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Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600
359 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

A strengthening surface ridge along the eastern U.S. coastline to the northeast Gulf of Mexico will bring moderate to strong easterly flow and building seas beginning tonight and lasting into Tuesday. Winds will then ease to light to moderate from the south to southeast for the remainder of the forecast.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641pm CDT Sunday May 24 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...An upper ridge will continue to build over the eastern conus from the western Atlantic through the near term. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Rockies, with a southeastward extension over the Gulf of Mexico, will continue to move eastward over the Great Plains. Will see an increase in coverage of rainshowers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening hours generally north of I-10 due to decreased stability. Enough instability is indicated (MUCapes topping 2000J/kg in the heat of the day) for strong storms to develop. Also, with DCapes again topping 1000J/kg and dry air in the mid/upper levels, strong winds are possible if this dry air mixes in to any downdrafts of the taller storms. Small hail will also be possible with wetbulb zero heigheights around 11,000-12,000'. High temperatures today are trending as forecast, topping out in the 88 to 93 degree range over most of the forecast area, with mid 80s close to the coast.

An upper level shortwave trough moving through the mean gulf upper trough late tonight through Monday afternoon will move north over the north-central/northeastern Gulf coast. Increasing coverage of convection is expected to spread north over the northern gulf late tonight through Monday, with the best coverage expected along the coast near the best upper dynamics from the shortwave trough.

Low temperatures tonight are expected to range from 65 to 70 degrees, with low 70s at the coast. The increasing cloud cover and precipitation will limit daytime heating, bringing a cooler day to the forecast area for Memorial Day than previous days. High temperatures Monday are expected to range from 84 to 89 degrees, with low 80s at the coast. With the cooler temperatures over a significant portion of the forecast area, the chance of strong storms decreases significantly. With low level winds and swells increasing along the beaches, a High Rip Current Risk begins on Monday. /22

Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday Night
A moist and difluent flow pattern aloft will continue over the the area downstream of a cutoff upper low over Texas. Meanwhile, a upper ridge will extend from the western Atlantic through the mid- Atlantic states. The difluent flow aloft combined with disturbances rotating through the southwest upper flow will lead to continue scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will be most numerous during peak heating hours, but will linger into the evening due to the previously mentioned features. With the moist airmass remaining entrenched across our region, a few showers may tend to re-develop overnight, especially near the coast. Highs will generally be in the mid and upper 80s depending on if/when a site receives rain. /13

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The pattern changes little through the extended term as the local area remains between an upper cutoff low to the west and a weak upper ridge to the east. At the surface, high pressure remains firmly in place over the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf. The result will be a persistent moist and unsettled deep-layer southerly flow across the region through the period. With this pattern, expect shower and thunderstorm activity to develop across the area each day, becoming most numerous during peak heating hours along an inland- advancing sea breeze. Moderate instability and weak shear will support a primarily pulse-type thunderstorm mode, though can't rule out a few multi-cells capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. While activity should decrease after sunset each evening, decided to leave in low-end PoPs each night as weak instability will remain in place and some areas could see a few showers and storms form along leftover outflow boundaries.

Temperatures remain steady through the period, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s (and perhaps a few locations reaching low 90s) each afternoon. Low temps each night only dip into the upper 60s inland to low/mid 70s along the coast. /13

MARINE...A strengthening surface ridge along the eastern U.S. coastline to the northeast Gulf of Mexico will bring moderate to strong easterly flow and building seas beginning tonight and lasting into Tuesday. Winds will then ease to light to moderate from the south to southeast for the remainder of the forecast. /22

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6am CDT Monday through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6am CDT Monday through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1am Monday to 11am CDT Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 6am Monday to 11am CDT Tuesday for GMZ631-632.