South Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 3 To 8 Knots Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming North. Waves Around 1 Foot. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Friday...North Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Southwest 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Saturday...West Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Southwest 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...South Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...Southwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
| Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
246 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021
A light to occasionally moderate northeasterly to easterly flow is expected through Thursday, with flow transitioning to southerly to southwesterly flow on Friday and continuing this way into early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected through the period, with greater chances overnight each night. Little change in seas is expected through the period.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1020pm CDT Wednesday August 4 2021
Near Term - Now Through Friday
An anomalously deep upper level trough that is currently over our forecast area will be lifting out to the northeast during the day on Thursday, with another trough beginning to dig into the Central Plains while progressing east. With this pattern, our region will be in a generally zonal flow aloft on Thursday, but transitioning more to a southwesterly flow Thursday night and Friday as the second upper trough mentioned above progresses closer to our forecast area.
At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is currently stalled off the coast to our south with a weak low noted along the boundary generally south of the western Florida panhandle. Somewhat drier air is filtering into at least the northwestern portions of our forecast area, but even reaching down to the coast in some areas, as our current 64 degree dewpoint here at the NWS Office in West Mobile indicates. Going into Thursday, the surface boundary remains stalled just off the coast with the weak surface low persisting or gradually washing out. Only slight moisture return is expected on Thursday, mainly to the southeast of I-65, with drier air still pushing into the northwestern portions of the forecast area. As such, the best Probability of Precipitation on Thursday will remain primarily along and southeast of I-65 during the afternoon hours with isolated to scattered showers and storms expected, with the convective coverage then pushing offshore Thursday night. On Friday, with the secondary upper trough nearing our area from the west, the surface front will start to lift back northward as a warm front, slowly bringing increased moisture back into the region. But there remains some question as to just how much moisture recovery we will have, with the GFS keeping us a little drier with lower Probability of Precipitation on Friday than does the ECMWF. For now will go with low end chance Probability of Precipitation (about 30 percent or so) for most areas on Friday.
As far as temps go, highs through the period remain generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the cooler max temps down along the coast. Lows late tonight will range from the mid/upper 60s up in our northwestern zones where the drier air is more firmly entrenched, to the low 70s in the vicinity of the I-65 and mid 70s down along the coast. Thursday night lows about the same. /12
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.