South Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...South Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Sunday...Southwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming South. Waves Around 1 Foot. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Southwest. Waves Around 1 Foot. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Monday...Southwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...Southwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Tuesday Night...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...East Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL
618pm CDT Sat July 20 2019
Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION... 00Z issuance...Isolated lingering showers dissipate early this evening, then redevelop mainly near the coast late tonight. Coverage of showers and storms becomes scattered to numerous on Sunday with the higher coverage expected over the western half of the area. VFR conditions prevail outside of the convection with MVFR conditions expected with the stronger showers/storms. Light and variable winds tonight become southerly 4 to 8 knots on Sunday. /29
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334pm CDT Sat July 20 2019/
NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...An unsettled weather pattern continues through the weekend as weak upper ridging over the central and midwestern CONUS maintains a northeast flow over the local area. Weak shortwave impulses embedded within this flow continue to provide enough support for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. While there should be a lull in activity early tonight after daytime heating shuts down, am expecting some redevelopment to occur offshore and along the coast late tonight into early Sunday morning, similar to last night though not quite as extensive. This activity gradually spreads inland during the day Sunday, with the greatest coverage occurring over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama counties where deeper moisture will reside (PWATs around 2.00 inches). Slow storm motion and ample tropospheric moisture content will present a minor flooding risk for urban areas and small creeks and streams, particularly in the aforementioned areas where thunderstorm coverage will be greatest. In terms of temperatures, expect highs to remain a few degrees cooler than normal (upper 80s) over the western half of the area Sunday afternoon due to increased cloud cover from showers and storms. Farther east over south-central Alabama and the interior Florida panhandle, thunderstorm coverage will be more scattered and peeks of sunshine will allow temps to reach the low to mid 90s. /49
SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...An inverted mid level trof will continue to slowly move westward across the area through Monday. The combination of the trof along with plenty of deep layer moisture and daytime heating will lead to scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms again on Monday. A digging upper trof over the eastern states will send a cold front into the area Monday night into Tuesday. This will keep even higher rain chances on Tuesday as the front slowly moves south. Locally heavy rain will continue to be the primary threat. /13
LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The frontal boundary sinks a bit more to the southeast and becomes quasi-stationary near or just off the coast by Wednesday. Showers and storms look to be likely over the western FL panhandle to coastal Alabama and points offshore Wednesday and Thursday with lower rain chances to the north. The front will likely move back northward late in the week with showers/storms likely over a larger part of the area. Considering the front, clouds and rain chances, daytime highs through much of the medium range look to stay in the 80s. Overnight lows may dip into the mid 60s over the northwest zones Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
MARINE...High pressure over the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf maintains a generally light onshore flow across the area through Monday. Winds shift to westerly early to mid next week as high pressure builds west into the central Gulf and a front approaches the local area from the north. Showers and thunderstorms continue through the forecast period, some of which could produce gusty winds. /49
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.