Marine Weather Net

South Mobile Bay Marine Forecast


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8 - 13


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8 - 13

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ631 Forecast Issued: 1133 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Rest Of Today...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Tonight...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Northeast. Waves Around 1 Foot. Patchy Fog After Midnight. Patchy Drizzle After Midnight.
Monday...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Patchy Fog In The Morning. Patchy Drizzle In The Morning.
Monday Night...East Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Tuesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 13 To 18 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...East Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Thursday...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 13 To 18 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
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Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600
1133 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

A light offshore flow will transition to easterly into Tuesday, then southerly by Wednesday as TS Zeta moves north over the Gulf of Mexico towards the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. For all the latest information on TS Zeta, please refer to forecast advisories and discussions from the National Hurricane Center.
Area Forecast Discussion
...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL
625am CDT Sunday Oct 25 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...No changes needed at this time, with a stubborn stratus deck and patchy fog reported on area observations and satellite products. /16

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...An upper ridge will build north over the Southeast as a strong upper level shortwave digs south over the western Conus. A low level ridge will build west over the Southeast in response to the building upper ridge. A cold front has moved south to over the northern Gulf of Mexico, with cooler air moving south in a very moist airmass over the majority of the forecast area, creating a deck of low stratus along with patchy fog to the area at this time. Am expecting this stratus to persist over the area most of the area today, helping to limit daytime heating, especially west of the Alabama River. The result is high temperatures today around to a bit below seasonal norms northwest of the Alabama to above southeast. Low 70s expected well northwest of the Alabama to the mid 70s along the Alabama and I-65 corridor to upper 70s to around 80 south and east. Drier air will move over the forecast area tonight, allowing for better radiational cooling even as upper subsidence increases with the building ridge. The upper subsidence is expected to prove the greater influence, though, with low temperatures remaining above seasonal norms. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s expected over the majority of the forecast area, with mid 60s along the coast. Monday will see a return of well above seasonal temperatures to the forecast area as upper subsidence increases and the drier airmass remains over the forecast area. Northwestern portions of the forecast will still see the effects of the cooler air that had moved over the area, though. High temperatures ranging from the upper 70s well northwest of the Alabama River to low to mid 80s southeast of I-65 are expected.

A Moderate Risk of rip current today will ease to a low tonight, but as increased swell from TS Zeta begins to affect area beaches Tuesday, the Rip Risk will increase to a High Tuesday night and remain so in to the latter half of the week. /16

Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday Night
A large positively tilted upper trough initially in place from the northern/central Plains into the southwest states splits and cuts off an upper low near southern New Mexico while the northern portion of the upper trough deamplifies while spreading into the northeastern states. In response, an upper ridge axis in place over much of the Gulf gradually retreats from the western Gulf. This overall pattern will be of great importance for steering Zeta, especially the upper ridge position and strength. Per the latest track from the National Hurricane Center for Zeta, the system will be located near the northeast yucatan peninsula Monday night then advances northwestward then northward through Tuesday night, advancing to approximately 120 miles south of the Louisiana coast by late Tuesday night. Will continue with dry conditions for Monday night, then as abundant tropical moisture associated with Zeta spreads into the area will have pops increasing to chance to likely for Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the highest probability of precipitation over extreme southwest Alabama and extreme southeast Mississippi where both the best deep layer moisture and low level convergence will be located. Highs on Tuesday will be mostly in the lower 80s, then overnight lows trend warmer during the period, from lower 60 to around 70 Monday night to mid 60s to lower 70s Tuesday night, with the higher values near the coast. It should be noted that these overnight lows Tuesday night are about 20 degrees above normal, mild to say the least. A low risk of rip currents is expected Monday night which increases to a moderate risk on Tuesday. Please see the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Zeta. /29

EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...High amounts of tropical moisture will continue to spread across the north central Gulf coast by early Wednesday as Zeta lifts north across the north central Gulf of Mexico. Per the latest track from the National Hurricane Center, Zeta is expected to make landfall along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday then turn northeastward while moving across Mississippi Wednesday night in advance of a deep trough that will be moving east over the southern Plains. There are still uncertainties as to what the eventual track of the system will be, and nearly the entire forecast area is within the cone of uncertainty. The forecast continues to remain challenging Wednesday into Wednesday night, and local impacts will be driven by the eventual track and intensity of the tropical system. The timeframe of any impacts for our local area would likely be on Wednesday and into Wednesday evening. Bottom line for now is that all of our forecast area will have the potential heavy rain, severe weather, high surf/rip currents, as well as gusty wind and potentially coastal flooding impacts by midweek. POPs have trended upward into Wednesday and Wednesday night as the tropical system comes ashore. Rain chances begin to lower on Thursday as the tropical system lifts further inland, away from our area, and then cooler and dry weather should return to the area Thursday night through Saturday following the passage of the trough to our north and an associated cold front across our area. /12 /29

MARINE...Light offshore flow will transition to a moderate easterly into Tuesday as TS Zeta moves north over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will increase through mid week as Zeta passes west of area waters and moves onshore on the Louisiana coast. Flow remains a moderate to strong onshore into Thursday until a cold front moving over area waters brings a moderate to strong west to northwest flow for the latter portions of the week. /16

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.