South Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher Near Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots, Becoming Southeast 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Feet In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Thursday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming North After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming North 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Friday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
956pm CDT Sunday May 22 2022
Near Term - Now Through Tuesday
An interesting evening with a fairly well defined surface, and especially mid level, low pressure center out over the Gulf south of Mobile Bay. This feature is quickly lifting to the north, and will likely make its way ashore sometime late this evening or early predawn hours Monday. The midlevel circulation center appears to be only about 55 to 60 miles offshore south of Fort Morgan, while a broader surface circulation is located over the Gulf a little to the south and further offshore. These features are moving toward the north at a pretty good clip, and as we stated will likely be onshore late this evening or early Monday morning before sunrise. Some of the offshore platforms and a number of ship reports have indicated some wind gusts up to around 40 to 45 mph, and as the deeper convection moves ashore later tonight some gusty winds could be possible. The primary windflow will generally be out of the east to southeast, but some strong and more variable wind gusts will also be possible with stronger storms in a spiral band rotating inland across coastal AL and the western FL panhandle this evening as well. This spiral band feature will be moving ashore between now and about 11 PM, and some sudden, somewhat stronger wind gusts could be associated with the stronger storms within the band. A brief, isolated tornado could also be possible with any of the stronger cells, and we will be monitoring for that.
No significant development of this system is expected before it moves inland later tonight, but regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue across portions of the central Gulf Coast and spread inland across the interior southeast CONUS during the day on Monday. Some localized flooding due to heavy rainfall may occur in some areas. Abundant deep layer moisture will remain over the area, with precipitable water values increasing to 1.7-2.0 inches by Monday. As such, with the system lifting north across the region on Monday, the heavier rainfall, and potential associated flooding, will likely be the greatest hazard, with 3 to 4 inches of rainfall possible in some locations from now through Monday evening. The Weather Prediction Center has a slight risk of flash flooding over most of our area through Monday. Probability of Precipitation remain likely through Monday as the remnant low moves north, further inland into AL.
As the low moves further inland a mainly onshore flow will continue, continuing to bring abundant moisture into the region. With this rain chances will remain elevated through the near term. Will see a decrease in coverage across the area Monday night as we loss heating and instability, but will however maintain chance PoPs through most of the night. Probability of Precipitation will increase to likely once again on Tuesday as ample moisture remains, instability again increases during the day and a shortwave trough aloft approaches from the west. Overall severe threat, however will be fairly low both Monday and Tuesday, and Storm Prediction Center does not have any of our area outlooked at this time. In general, expect a summer like pattern with slightly better coverages of storms.
With widespread clouds and continued likely Probability of Precipitation on Monday expect high temps to be in the lower to middle 80s across the region (possibly even remaining in the upper 70s in some areas). A little more sunshine on Tuesday should allow for daytime highs to climb into the middle 80s at most locations. Lows Monday night mainly in the mid to upper 60s inland and the lower 70s along the coast. /12
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206.