South Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Around 30 Knots Becoming Northeast 18 To 23 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds 18 To 23 Knots Diminishing To 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 13 To 18 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...North Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Friday...North Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Saturday...North Winds 13 To 18 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Sunday...Northeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.|
|Sunday Night...North Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600|
359 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019
Strong offshore flow will continue through tonight as strong high pressure continues to build into the northern Gulf. Seas remain elevated tonight before gradually subsiding into Wednesday morning. A light to moderate northeast flow returns on Wednesday as surface high pressure shifts east. A moderate to strong northerly flow returns Thursday and Friday as another ridge of high pressure builds into the northern Gulf.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mobile AL
402pm CST Tuesday Nov 12 2019
Near Term - Now Through Wednesday
Low clouds have eroded across the region this afternoon, with only a few high clouds passing overhead as of 3pm CST. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight into early Wednesday morning as a much drier airmass remains in place over the region underneath northwest to zonal flow aloft. Cold surface high pressure will continue to build across the eastern CONUS through Wednesday morning. Breezy northerly winds continue late this afternoon, and with some locations still reporting occasional gusts up to 30 mph, have opted to keep the Wind Advisory intact through late this afternoon. The MSLP gradient should slacken somewhat over our forecast area by early this evening, but some gradient will still remain for northerly winds of 5-10 mph over the interior tonight and 10-20 mph with occasional higher gusts near the immediate coast and beaches. The mostly clear skies and cold/dry airmass will support the first freeze of the season for just about all of the CWA (exception may be barrier islands) tonight. Lows were trended toward the warmer NBM guidance given that wind speeds do remain slightly elevated through the night. Lows are forecast to range in the 20s over the interior and right around the freezing mark near the immediate coast. The Freeze Warning continues tonight through early Wednesday morning. Mostly clear skies and below normal temperatures continue on Wednesday, but high temperatures should be a little warmer in the lower to mid 50s. /21
Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday Night
Wednesday night through Thursday night, an upper trough over the Tex/Mex border moves east-northeast along the northern Gulf coast through the Short Term, with a stronger upper trough that has moved southeast to over the Southern Plains close behind. There will be an increasing coverage of isentropic upglide rain-showers over the forecast area Thursday through Thursday night as a result, though a very dry airmass due to a lack of moisture return over the region will help to slow any precipitation reaching the surface Thursday. Better coverage is expected to be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as the second, stronger shortwave trough approaches from the west. With the cold airmass that has moved over the region still in place, the biggest question is the chance of any winter weather. Guidance is indicating temperatures warm enough ahead of the approaching system to keep the precipitation in the liquid category, and remaining so Thursday night with the expected rain cooling. Low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday night in the mid 30s to near 40 inland, mid 40s along the coast are expected, with high temperatures Thursday in the upper 40s to around 50s inland, mid 50s along the coast.
Friday through Friday night, the upper shortwave trough moves off with northerly flow over the region bringing cooler air and continued below normal temperatures to the forecast area. High temperatures Friday in the 50s are expected. Low temperatures Friday night see a downturn as winds ease and skies clear, dropping to around 30 over northwestern portions of the forecast area to upper 30s southeast of the I-65 corridor, and around 40 to low 40s along the coast. /16
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
Another shortwave trough digs southeast over the Plains, building and shifting east a weak upper ridge over the Southeast from the Plains. This brings an upper tick in temperatures for the weekend, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s expected Saturday and low to mid 60s for Sunday. Low temperatures ranging from the low 30s well inland to mid 40s along the coast are expected.
The upper trough moves east over the Southeast late Sunday night through Tuesday, bringing a chance of rain to the region, mainly late Sunday night into Monday night. With a lack of moisture return ahead of the system's passage, rain chances remain low, with best coverage along and south of northern Gulf coast. Temperatures moderate upward through the beginning of the week with better daytime heating and weakening northerly flow expected. Highs in the low to mid 60s expected Monday, mid to upper 60s Tuesday. Low temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s Sunday and Monday night. /16
A tight pressure gradient and continued cold air advection over the relatively warmer waters will result in strong offshore flow over the marine area through early Wednesday morning. We will let the Gale Warning continue until 6pm CST for the coastal waters, including Mobile Bay and the MS Sound as marine observations still indicate occasional gusts near gale force. Winds should otherwise decrease to 20-25 knots with gusts around 30 knots after 6pm through 9am CST, and a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for all marine zones during this time frame. Seas of 5-7 feet over the nearshore waters gradually subside to 2-4 feet by early Wednesday morning. Seas of 7-11 feet well offshore meanwhile subside to 4-7 feet by early Wednesday morning. A light to moderate northeast flow will become established on Wednesday as surface high pressure shifts east. A moderate to strong northerly flow returns Thursday and Friday between low pressure moving across the central and eastern Gulf, and high pressure that becomes reinforced from the plains to the Mississippi Valley region. /21
NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...Freeze Warning from 6pm this evening to 9am CST Wednesday for ALZ051>060-261>266.
Wind Advisory until 6pm CST this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...Freeze Warning from 6pm this evening to 9am CST Wednesday for FLZ201>206.
Wind Advisory until 6pm CST this evening for FLZ201>206.
MS...Freeze Warning from 6pm this evening to 9am CST Wednesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
Wind Advisory until 6pm CST this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 9am CST Wednesday for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.
Gale Warning until 6pm CST this evening for GMZ630>632-650-655- 670-675.
Small Craft Advisory until 9am CST Wednesday for GMZ633>636.