Marine Weather Net

South Mobile Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
8 - 13
KNOTS

TUESDAY

N
WINDS
3 - 8
KNOTS

TUESDAY NIGHT

W
WINDS
8 - 13
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

NE
WINDS
3 - 8
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ631 Forecast Issued: 310 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Tonight...Northwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming North 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Tuesday...North Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming West 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Tuesday Night...West Winds 8 To 13 Knots Becoming North 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Wednesday...Northeast Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Southeast. Waves Less Than 1 Foot.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Thursday...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Friday...South Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Friday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers.
Saturday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers.
Saturday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers.
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Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600
310 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Surface high pressure slides east along the coast toward the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Light offshore flow becomes onshore by Wednesday night as high pressure moves across the Gulf waters. A cold front sweeps through over the weekend, which allows for the development of a moderate offshore flow and higher seas.
Area Forecast Discussion
...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL
528pm CST Monday Nov 18 2019

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...The increase in mid to high level clouds this morning and afternoon was due to a shortwave trough dropping through the eastern half of the CONUS. Today's cloud cover kept daytime high temperatures in the mid to low 60s across much of the area. The upper level pattern begins to shift as we go through the day on Tuesday as an upper level trough pushes east toward the Atlantic, while ridging builds into the central portion of the CONUS on the backside of the trough. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface slides east along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday, which will keep winds generally light in the near term. Temperatures overnight will be fairly similar to this morning with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Tuesday will be a pleasant fall- like day with slightly warmer high temperatures than today. A few locations may hit 70° on Tuesday with dewpoints in the 40s and clearing skies. 07/mb

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, continues across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday night. With this, mostly clear skies and mild temperatures will continue through Wednesday night, with lows each night mainly in the 40s across the area except along the immediate coast where 50s are expected. Highs on Wednesday expected to be in the lower 70s. By Thursday into Thursday night, the ridge axis shifts east of our area and a gradual moisture return off the Gulf begins, with slightly moderated temperatures expected. Highs Thursday remain in the lower 70s, lows Thursday night a little warmer than Tuesday and Wednesday nights, ranging from the lower 50s inland to upper 50s closer to the coast and even a few lower 60s at the coast. /12

Long Term - Friday Through Monday
There remains some differences in modes with regard to timing of FROPA and associated showers late this week and early this weekend, but models are beginning to be in better agreement. The GFS is still a little faster than the ECMWF, but now by only about 6 hours or so. The CMC is very close to the ECMWF. Still went with a blend of the models for timing, but leaned toward the slightly faster GFS solution based on latest trends. Looking for an increase in Probability of Precipitation beginning late Friday, and continuing through early Saturday, with the best chances for precipitation coming on Friday night. With this, made some adjustments to Probability of Precipitation from previous grids. The moisture return that began at the end of the short term period will continue out ahead of the front, but overall moisture levels will remains rather minimal. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) do increase to around 1.75 inches in advance of the front late Friday into Saturday, but MUCAPE's are forecast to be no more than 500 J/KG. Due to the lack of instability, we have only included showers to forecast in association with the FROPA. But, models indicate that there could be some shear associated with the system (SFC-500 MB Bulk Shear 65-75 KT, SRH 200-250 M2/S2 and a 850 MB Jet of around 30-35 KT), so we will continue to monitor instabilities in case later model runs show an increase. At this time, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is a little stronger with regard to dynamics across our area than is the GFS, primarily on Friday night. A slight chance of lingering precipitation through Saturday evening, and then for now looking at mostly dry conditions Sunday through Monday. Daytime highs on Friday in the 70s out in advance of the front, cooling to the upper 50s to middle 60s Saturday through Monday in the wake of the front. Lows Friday night in the primarily in the 50s with the front approaching, but cooling mainly into the mid 30s to upper 40s range Saturday and Sunday nights. /12

MARINE...Surface high pressure slides east along the Gulf Coast toward the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. A light offshore flow gradually turns to become onshore late on Wednesday as high pressure moves across the Gulf waters. A cold front sweeps through the area this weekend, which allows for the re-development of a moderate offshore flow and higher seas. Winds and seas relax early next week. 07/mb

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.