Marine Weather Net

South Mobile Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRIDAY

NW
WINDS
3 - 8
KNOTS

FRIDAY NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SATURDAY

NW
WINDS
3 - 8
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ631 Forecast Issued: 307 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020

Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Friday...Northwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming South 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West 3 To 8 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Saturday...Northwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Southwest. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming West. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Sunday...West Winds 3 To 8 Knots Becoming Southwest 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Monday...West Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot.
Tuesday...West Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 8 To 13 Knots. Waves Around 1 Foot. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
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Synopsis For Pascagoula MS To Okaloosa Walton County Line FL Out 60 NM Including Major Area Bays And Sounds - GMZ600
307 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

A light wind flow pattern is expected across the marine area for the rest of the week and will continue through early next week. Generally southerly flow will occur during the day with sea breeze development and southwest to west flow will prevail at night. Seas will be around 1 foot, with little change expected.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
228pm CDT Thu August 6 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...An upper level trough will continue to slowly move over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys through the near term period, with the northern Gulf coast located at the base of this trough. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will persist over the central CONUS and over the Atlantic. A surface front has also stalled over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, with the parent low pressure center located over central Alabama. This will likely remain in place through Friday.

Dry air continues over the area, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) from 1.2 inches over the inland areas to around 1.7 inches right along the coast. Isolated showers/storms will continue to be possible through the rest of the afternoon and perhaps into early this evening mainly for southwest and south-central Alabama as well as the western Florida Panhandle. Quiet weather will then follow for tonight. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will begin to slowly increase on Friday, with model values around 1.35 inches inland to around 1.7 inches near the coast by the afternoon. Expecting some showers to develop over the Gulf waters late tonight through Friday morning, with the potential for a few embedded storms as well. This activity will eventually expand to the land areas through the day, but mainly be concentrated along and southeast of I- 65. Isolated to scattered showers (with possibly a few storms) are thus anticipated through Friday afternoon.

Low temperatures tonight will then be in the lower to mid 70s along and southeast of I-65 and in the upper 60s to lower 70s northwest of I-65. Near the coast, lows will be in the mid to upper 70s. High temperatures Friday afternoon are likely to be in the lower to mid 90s north of I-10 and in the upper 80s south. Lastly, a LOW RISK of rip currents continues through at least Friday. /26

Short Term - Friday Night Through Sunday Night
An upper trof over the Eastern States, which extends modestly to the north central Gulf coast, steadily weakens and moves off into the western Atlantic through Saturday night. A modest upper level weakness lingers near the north central Gulf coast region in the wake of the upper trough, located between an upper ridge over the south central states and an upper ridge over the western Atlantic which extends into the eastern Gulf. A rather weak surface trof will be present near the interior portion of the forecast area Friday night through Saturday night and possibly even into Sunday night, supported by the circulation around a gradually weakening surface ridge over the interior eastern states and a surface ridge over the northern Gulf. With the upper trough exiting the Eastern States, this allows drier deep layer air over interior areas to be replaced with higher moisture content air from the southern portion of the area. Following upon this, precipitable water values of initially 1.4-1.8 inches (with drier air over interior areas) becomes predominately around 1.75 inches areawide by Sunday night. Considering the moisture trends and the weak surface trough as well as some support from a weak sea breeze, have continued with slight chance probability of precipitation over the southern two-thirds of the area on Saturday, then slight chance probability of precipitation follow for the entire area on Sunday. Dry conditions prevail overnight and into the morning hours each day, although a stray shower/storm will be possible. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the lower to mid 90s, with a few spots possibly reaching the upper 90s over interior areas. Lows Friday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast then trend gradually warmer by Sunday night to mostly range from the mid 70s inland to the upper 70s at the immediate coast. A low risk of rip currents continues through the period. /29

.EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...An anemic upper level weakness manages to persist near the north central Gulf coast region through Tuesday then shifts gradually westward through Thursday as the upper ridge over the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf strengthens somewhat and expands into the southeast states. A surface ridge remains in place over the northern Gulf and promotes a light southerly flow over the forecast area through the period. Precipitable water values around 1.75 inches on Monday trend a bit higher to 1.75-2.0 inches for Tuesday then trend a bit lower through Thursday due to modest subsidence associated with the expanding upper ridge. Expect a diurnal convective cycle to continue through the period with modest support from a weak sea breeze, and have limited coverage to scattered at best through the period, especially when considering the modest subsidence developing later in the period. Heat index values around 105 are expected Monday then look to range from 100 to 105 for the remaining days. /29

Marine
No impacts are anticipated for the marine areas through at least midweek next week. Expect little change in seas (around 1 foot) along with a light, mainly southerly wind flow (with sea breeze formation) during the day and a more southwest to west wind flow at night. Winds, waves, and seas will be locally higher near isolated to scattered showers and storms through the weekend, increasing in coverage somewhat during the early to middle part of next week. /26

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.