South Mobile Bay Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Light Chop. Showers With Thunderstorms Likely. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Light Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers With Thunderstorms Likely After Midnight. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. Showers With Thunderstorms Likely In The Morning, Then Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Sunday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely. |
| Monday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Tuesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA 457pm CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 Issued at 1156am CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 The high pressure over the Atlantic and moisture from long gone Hurricane Polo continues to advect in tropical moisture. PWATs have climbed to around 2.4-2.5 inches which is quite anomalous being well above the 90th percentile (~1.95 inches) and is even close to the daily max of 2.54 inches based on sounding climatology. With PWATs (Precipitable Waters) this high, the atmospheric column is close to fully saturated. The significant deep layer moisture and freezing levels of 15,000+ft will support efficient warm rain processes with rainfall rates topping out at 2-3 inches/hour. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected into Monday before the deep moisture departs. CAMs continue to pinpoint areas along the coast for the highest rainfall amounts. Ensemble 6-hour LPMMs show multiple periods of some bulls-eyes of around 4-6 inches along the coast this evening and especially Sunday morning into the early evening. Right now we are forecasting precipitation totals of 4- 6 inches through Monday and some of our far northern reaches could only receive 2-3 inches. Some areas, especially along the coast generally along and south of I-10 could receive up to 10-15 inches where storms train over the same area. These areas would have life-threatening flash flooding and some rivers are already expected to go into flood stage over the few days. We opted to issue a Flood Watch for coastal counties given the high totals coming in from the high-res guidance. No widespread severe weather is expected with this event, but some gusty winds and lightning are possible with any storms. Some guidance is pointing towards a weak area of low pressure forming near the coast on Sunday. This feature would enhance rainfall and increase low-level shear with curved hodographs which introduces an isolated tornado/waterspout potential. The good news is that while it is very moist and rainy, temperatures are at or below normal through the weekend as the rainfall and cloud coverage keeps highs mostly in the low 80s. The plume of deep tropical moisture (2+ inch PWATs) lasts into the beginning of next week keeping the increased rain chances into at least Monday. A cold front then sweeps through the area and decreases rain chances around Tuesday and into late next week. It will definitely feel like fall out there as temperatures decrease and the drier air will be very welcomed after this wet period. The front does come with increased winds bringing dangerous marine/beach conditions with marine winds near advisory levels, higher wave heights, and an increased rip current risk again. ..Coastal Flooding Minor coastal flooding continues to be a concern Sunday morning. Local tide gauges showed very close or exceeded thresholds this morning and a similar setup looks to be true for Sunday morning during the pre-dawn hours when the high tide combines with persistent onshore flow. Most areas approach or equal our 2.0 feet MHHW threshold (2 feet above normally dry ground) so we opted to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for all coastal areas from midnight to 8AM Sunday. Expect some minor inundation for typical trouble spots like Dauphin Island and Fort Pickens and splashover on the causeway. ..Beach Forecast Hazardous beach conditions continue with all area beaches flying red flags again today. The rip current risk continues to be HIGH for all beaches in southern Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle. The HIGH risk continues to Monday then drops to a MODERATE Monday night through Tuesday before increasing again around Wednesday to HIGH. Increased surf up to 3-4 feet continues into the beginning of next week and by mid week may further increase towards High Surf Advisory criteria. SS/97 Marine Issued at 1156am CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 Moderate to occasionally strong southeasterly flow continues into Sunday. Winds relax by Monday morning and then become strong and turn northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front on Tuesday. Advisory level conditions are possible Tuesday through Thursday as we get strong easterly winds.Seas increase to 3-5 feet late week into early this weekend with another bump to 5-8 feet possible in the middle of next week with the increasing winds. SS/97 NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ALZ261>266. Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 8am CDT Sunday for ALZ263>266. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for FLZ201>206. Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 8am CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. |
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