Pensacola Bay including Santa Rosa Sound Marine Forecast
| Tonight...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest Late This Evening And Overnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms This Evening. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Thursday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southwest Around 5 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. |
| Friday...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Friday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Saturday...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Diminishing To Around 5 Knots After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Sunday...West Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming West After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 647pm CDT Tuesday Jun 23 2026 Issued at 1225pm CDT Tuesday Jun 23 2026 A departing shortwave in northwest flow aloft has dragged a weak surface boundary into the forecast area. This is a NW-SE oriented boundary near the Hwy 84 corridor. Weak low level convergence along this boundary will serve as a focus for scattered to potentially numerous shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. The atmosphere is very unstable with SBCAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy - high values indicate potential for severe weather) forecast to be near or exceed 4000 J/kg this afternoon along and south of the Hwy 84 corridor. In addition, mid level lapse rates are steep around 7-7.5 C/km. While deep layer shear is very weak, the above parameters suggest a few storms could become produce strong gusty winds. An isolated, brief severe storm cannot be ruled out. The only uncertainty is the extent of convective coverage since we are on the backside of the eastward moving shortwave and actually in shortwave ridging aloft. Will maintain 40-60% rain chances this afternoon for all but the far inland areas. Convection could still be ongoing along the southern half of the area early this evening, but this is expected to diminish by late evening. Our attention then turns to another shortwave embedded in the northwest flow that will approach the area on Wednesday. Guidance varies a little bit on the timing of this wave (not uncommon for convective NW flow events), but in general it appears that it will enhance our storm chances from late Wednesday morning through early Wednesday evening. Our instability parameters are forecast to be very similar to what we have today. The addition of a better forcing mechanism appears to yield a better potential for strong wind gusts in some storms with a few storms potentially becoming severe. The lack of deep layer shear will likely preclude a more significant severe threat. However, we will be monitoring storms closely tomorrow for the strong wind gust potential. There will be another good chance of storms on Thursday as the aforementioned shortwave leaves a weakness in the upper ridge across our area. Just like today, a few storms with strong, gusty winds will be possible. Given precipitable waters climbing back to around 2", we will have to monitor for locally heavy rainfall as the storms will be very efficient rain producers. We are not expecting widespread concerns, but given how saturated we are, we could see some localized flooding. The upper ridge will expand across the southeast states Friday into early next week. We will see much lower storm chances in this period along with 100-105 degree heat indices for much of the area. Heat indices could approach Heat Advisory criteria (108 degrees) in some locations by next Monday. 34/JFB Beach Forecast: A moderate risk of rip currents today will transition to a low risk through the rest of the week into the weekend. 34/JFB Marine Issued at 1225pm CDT Tuesday Jun 23 2026 A light to moderate westerly flow today will transition to a light offshore flow tonight as a weak front moves over the coastal waters. This front will dissipate Wednesday into Wednesday night. A general light southwest flow is expected by late in the week into the weekend as high pressure becomes reestablished across the southwest Atlantic into the central Gulf. 34/JFB NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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