Marine Weather Net

Perdido Bay Marine Forecast


TODAY

NE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
5 KNOTS

SATURDAY

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SATURDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ633 Forecast Issued: 346 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Today...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots Early This Morning, Becoming South Around 5 Knots This Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Tonight...South Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming East After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Saturday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Monday...North Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday Night...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Tuesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
534am CST Fri Jan 27 2023

/issued 454am CST Fri Jan 27 2023/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TER
Marine
Near Term
(Now through Saturday Night) Issued at 338am CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Surface high pressure continues to build eastward across the Gulf Coast states early this morning. Temperatures are ranging in the upper 20s to around the freezing mark across much of southeast MS and interior southwest AL as of 4am CST, and a little warmer in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees across the remainder of south central AL and the western FL panhandle. The surface high will settle over our forecast area today before shifting to our east across the southeastern U.S. tonight. Dry weather conditions will continue through tonight with occasional high clouds spreading overhead. Temperatures will remain below normal today with highs once again ranging from the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Lows tonight may be a few degrees warmer, but still chilly in the lower to mid 30s over interior areas along and north of the I-10 corridor and in the upper 30s to mid 40s along the immediate coast.

A general west-southwest flow pattern aloft will continue into Saturday with high cloudiness gradually thickening through the day. Precipitable water values will be on the increase along with favorable ascent from southeast TX and into the Mississippi Valley region by Saturday night as a series of shortwave impulses propagate over this region along with increasing difluence within the southwest flow. Isolated rain showers may develop late Saturday night across far western and northwestern portions of our forecast area, but the better rain chances won't arrive until Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday are forecast to range from 60-65 degrees, while lows Saturday night range from around 40 to the mid 40s over interior portions of the western FL panhandle and into south central and interior southwest AL (these areas will still be more under the influence of the surface ridge) and generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s across southeast MS and into coastal portions of southwest AL and the western FL panhandle. /21

Long Term (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 338am CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Heavy rainfall expected Sunday with unsettled weather continuing into the middle of next week. A shortwave trough moves across the region Sunday afternoon and evening accompanied by a weak surface low/trough, serving as our first system of interest. A series of shortwaves begin transiting the south- central into eastern U.S. by the middle into latter part of next week while upper level ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico.

The first system of interest on Sunday will serve as a heavy rain producer for the region. Upper level difluence will increase by Sunday afternoon and evening as the trough moves across the area, serving as our source of lift. Heavy rainfall will likely result as strong warm air advection continues and overrunning precipitation occurs. Who sees the heaviest rainfall is still uncertain as that will be determined by the warm front positioning, however it does appear that a widespread 1 to 2 inches is likely at this juncture. In addition to the heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding threat, there remains a chance that the synoptic warm front manages to push onshore prior to the surface low/trough progressing east across the area. As usual, how far inland the warm sector can get is anyones guess at this point, but the northernmost limit would likely be coastal counties of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle such as the NAM 3km suggests. In the warm sector, adequate shear upwards of 50 to 60kts with moderately curved, elongated hodographs would support severe weather potential when coupled with 500 to 1,000j/kg of SBCAPE and MLCAPE. With all that said, the caveat remains how far does the warm sector get onshore and the quality of low level moisture return (mid 60's like global models advertise versus upper 60's surface dewpoints like the NAM 3km advertises). At this point it's too early to really go into any details until we get within range of other CAM guidance, but certainly something to keep an eye on as we move forward in time.

Beyond Sunday we should see a break from impactful weather at least Monday into Tuesday with only a few showers and isolated thunderstorms possible each day. Our next system to keep an eye on will be towards the middle of next week as shortwave trough begins to progress across the south-central U.S. There remains timing and trough placement discrepancies amongst the global guidance on this feature, but a return to stormy weather can be expected by middle to late next week.

Forecast temperatures for Sunday will be only in the lower 60's over interior southwestern AL while areas nearer the coast will be up around 70. A steady warming trend will occur into the middle of the week with highs likely reaching the lower to middle 70's for areas southeast of the I-65 corridor by Tuesday and Wednesday with middle to upper 60's elsewhere. Lows follow suit becoming upper 50's to lower 60's by Monday into Tuesday nights, followed by a cooling trend late week depending on timing of the next cold front passage. MM/25

Marine
Issued at 338am CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Offshore flow has strengthened over the coastal Gulf waters and small craft operators will need to exercise caution through the early morning hours. Winds otherwise become lighter by this afternoon into this evening as high pressure builds over the marine area. Southeasterly flow will increase Saturday into Sunday ahead of the next approaching system. /21

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.