Perdido Bay Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...South Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Late This Evening And Early Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Late. Patchy Fog. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. Patchy Fog In The Morning. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday Night...West Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Northwest 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Wednesday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Friday...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. |
| Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Saturday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Saturday Night...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Smooth. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1048pm CST Monday Dec 9 2024 /issued 343pm CST Monday Dec 9 2024/ ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TER Marine Near Term (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 343pm CST Monday Dec 9 2024 09.12Z upper analysis shows the deep south under a west/southwest flow at high levels in the geopotential height fields with short- wave energy passing out of LA and expected to deamplify the remainder of the day as it lifts across central MS/AL. At the surface, we are warm sectored south of a better defined, but quasi-stationary front draped from the Red River Valley of TX/OK to the Mid MS River Valley. A weak surface trough was oriented from southern MS, southwest to across southeast to south-central LA. Along this surface trough, a zone of precipitable water values from 1.4 to 1.8 inches was aligned and considering the intersecting surface boundary and the mid level impulse passage riding east northeast in the flow aloft provides enough ascent to keep the local area unsettled. Radar shows a fairly solid area of rains streaming east northeast mainly along and west of I-65. Little in the way of thunder at present time within the rain band as radar returns are stratiform/low topped considering little to no instability as mid level lapse rates are around 5.5 C/KM and little to no convective available potential energy (CAPE). There is however a bit of instability (Surface Based Cape at 500-1000 J/KG) poking up into the western FL Panhandle which is lending credence of thunder support so will be watching this area. Some of the rains moderate to locally heavy, but with higher intensity drought and elevated flash flood guidance, forecasters will hold off on issuance of a larger areal flash flood watch. Feel any flooding issues coming from higher rainfall rates => runoff will be isolated and confined to areas subject to poor drainage. Since midnight, several observations primarily over southeast MS and interior southwest AL already have received 1 to 2 inches. Flow aloft changes little tonight with moisture axis aligned northeast to southwest from the southern Carolinas to off the LA coast. There is a signal in the latest short range ensembles of patchy fog development overnight and have included this in the gridded forecast. There is also indications in the guidance that coverage of precipitation lowers a bit by late evening before trending back up by daybreak and into the day Tuesday as upper trough begins to sharpen over the Plains down into TX causing upper level support/ascent to increase along a southeastward moving cold front. The front approaches the western zones by late in the day Tuesday and will make passage across the I-65 corridor Tuesday night. The better coverage of showers and storms will shift east of I-65 by late Tuesday night/early Wedam with the frontal passage. May see a mix of thunder within the larger coverage of warm sector showers Tuesday and Tuesday night as a narrow low level H85 jet strengthens combined with 0-6km bulk shear magnitudes increasing to 40 to 60 kts. Instability is mostly weak considering degree of cloud cover/rain. Parameters appear to be a bit out of phase amongst solutions but enough will be present for a Marginal Risk of a sub-severe storm or very isolated, brief severe storm here and there with a strong to isolated damaging wind gust threat being the main impact in any of those. Still could also see some moderate to locally heavy downpours and potential isolated water issues in areas subject to poor drainage. Temperatures will be mild and well above normal by December standards with highs Tuesday in the lower to mid 70s interior to mid 70s coast. Lows will also be mild and well above normal tonight in the lower to mid 60s interior to mid 60s coast. Lows trend colder Tuesday night as cold air advection arrives in the wake of the frontal passage, 37 to 42 northwest of I-65 to mid 40s east of the Interstate, southward to the coast. /10 Long Term (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 343pm CST Monday Dec 9 2024 A large upper trough continues to push across the eastern CONUS to start the period with a surface cold front marching its way through the forecast area early Wednesday morning. Any lingering showers and storms will quickly shift east of the area mid to late morning with dry, cold air working its way into the area. Surface high pressure slides into the region keeping things dry through Friday in the cold fronts wake. Heading into the weekend, another upper trough approaches the region and high pressure shifts east putting us back into a warm air advection regime. Rain chances will be on the increase again as we head into the weekend with isolated to scattered coverage each day, best chances on Saturday. The next upper trough approaches by the beginning of next week which will likely bring another increase in rain chances. Temperatures follow a similar roller coaster with highs in the 50's and lows in the upper 20's and lower 30's through Thursday night. Temperatures warm back to near seasonable norms in the lower to middle 60's over the weekend and lows in the 40's over the interior and 50's nearer the coast. A Low risk of rip currents will exist Wednesday through Friday. MM/25 Marine Issued at 343pm CST Monday Dec 9 2024 Short range ensembles indicate elevated probabilities of advective type fog over Mobile Bay where warmer, moist southerly flow characterized by dewpoints 65-70 degrees is over-riding cooler bay temperatures 54-59 degrees. Have noticed some mixing out/improved visibilities at time of writing but expect restrictions to lower after dark again. Dense fog advisory remains in effect until 6am Tuesday and could be expanded for the remainder of Mobile Bay. Considering high confidence of increasing northwesterly flow to small craft advisory criteria in the wake of a strong frontal passage Tuesday night, small craft advisories have been posted and will continue into Wednesday for Mobile Bay, out across the open Gulf. Seas markedly higher Tuesday night into Wednesday with highest seas 6, to perhaps 9 feet in the 20 to 60 NM zones considering the northwesterly fetch. We may see a brief window where wind gusts could increase to gale force and will continue to monitor over the next couple shifts for a possible upgrade to the advisory. /10 NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 3pm CST Wednesday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to midnight CST Wednesday night for GMZ650-655-670-675. |
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