Marine Weather Net

Perdido Bay Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

MONDAY

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ633 Forecast Issued: 940 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY
Rest Of Today...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Areas Of Dense Fog Late This Morning.
Tonight...Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Patchy Fog In The Evening, Then Areas Of Dense Fog After Midnight.
Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Areas Of Fog In The Morning. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. Patchy Fog.
Tuesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Patchy Fog In The Morning. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...South Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming West After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Wednesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming West In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Wednesday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Thursday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
542am CST Sunday Mar 3 2024

/issued 536am CST Sunday Mar 3 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TER
Marine
Near Term
(Now through Monday) Issued at 536am CST Sunday Mar 3 2024

A weak upper trough over the extreme southeast states slowly progresses into the Carolinas during the period while a series of modest shortwaves continue to move across the forecast area. A weak and diffuse frontal boundary currently located near the coast is anticipated to dissipate today as a light southeasterly flow develops over the area. The flow diminishes tonight, then a somewhat stronger (around 10 knots) southeasterly flow follows for Monday. Areas of dense fog are affecting much of the area currently and have continued with a Dense Fog Advisory which will be in effect until mid morning by which time the fog should have dissipated. Dense fog development is likely across the area again tonight. Indicated MLCAPE values today look to typically range from 500-1000 J/kg, but model soundings are also rather dry especially above around 750 mb which suggests that convection that tries to develop will succumb to the entrainment of dry air and dissipate. Some spotty convection may manage to develop today over interior areas in this environment, but the potential coverage looks too limited to mention probability of precipitation at this time. For Monday, MLCAPE values will again be near 500-1000 J/kg but soundings exhibit better moisture content in lower levels which may be sufficient to allow for convection to survive rather dry air that continues to persist above 750 mb or so. Have opted to continue with slight chance to chance probability of precipitation for Monday. Shear values will be low through the period, but the presence of the dry air aloft indicates the potential for pulse type convection producing strong gusty winds, mainly on Monday with the better convective environment. Highs today and Monday will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tonight range from the upper 50s well inland to the lower 60s closer to the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through the period. /29

SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 536am CST Sunday Mar 3 2024

A weak southern stream shortwave trough, located over southern Texas/northern Mexico at the start of the period, is expected to quickly lift to the east-northeast through the period, likely passing overhead Tuesday evening. At the surface, a frontal boundary will be diving southeastward over the central US during the period, with a pre-frontal trough developing out ahead of it over the Lower Mississippi River Valley Monday night. This surface trough will gradually push eastwards on Tuesday, with some guidance suggesting that a weak low may attempt to develop along it over coastal portions of Louisiana/Mississippi. If this low does manage to develop, it would lift northeastward along the trough, moving across our area and lifting out by the evening hours. The synoptic frontal boundary finally pushes through by late Tuesday night.

The forecast continues to remain on track with very little changes to overall thinking. Rain chances quickly increase from west to east Monday night into Tuesday as diffluence from the upper trough moves overhead and the prefrontal trough (and possible surface low) develops and approaches the area. Storms will likely already be ongoing over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and they may start to exhibit some storm organization/clustering due to deep layer shear values approaching 35-45 knots across that area. However, as this activity starts to enter our area, shear values will start to lower as mid-level flow starts to weaken. Additionally, due to a nearly saturated profile giving way to weak lapse rates, instability remains rather meager across the area. Therefore, the overall severe risk continues to remain low at this time, although there might be a brief window during the late morning hours where a few stronger storms (potentially one or two severe storms) capable of producing gusty winds might be possible over our southwestern zones (generally south of Highway 84 and west of the Tombigbee River) as the storms first enter our area. Portions of this general area are currently outlooked in a Marginal Risk for severe weather so we will continue to monitor trends closely. Additionally, due to the highly saturated environment, any instances where convection may begin to train over the same areas could lead to localized flooding concerns. Rain chances decrease from west to east Tuesday night as the upper trough lifts away and the frontal boundary sweeps through.

Highs will top out in the low 70s on Tuesday, and lows will only drop into the upper 50s to low 60s. The rip current risk will gradually increase to a high risk by Tuesday night. /96

Long Term (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 536am CST Sunday Mar 3 2024

Mainly dry conditions are expected through at least Thursday morning as zonal flow aloft briefly develops in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave that lifted away from our area during the short term. Upper flow will gradually turn more southwesterly Thursday night into Friday as a longwave trough treks eastward across the central US. At the surface, the frontal boundary which pushed through the area during the short term briefly stalls offshore on Thursday before surging northward as a warm front late Thursday night into Friday morning. The combination of the advancing warm front and the strong southwesterly flow aloft will allow for rich, deep moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) up to 1.8 to 2.0 inches) to advect back into the region. At the same time, a surface low develops in response to the upper trough over the central US which will result in a strong cold front approaching the area Friday and pushing through on Saturday. Although still quite far out in time, models are in agreement that the combination of the deep moisture and forcing induced by strong diffluence aloft and the approaching front at the surface will likely lead to an increase in rain chances for Friday and into Friday night. Right now, the best forcing looks to reside just to the north of our area, however, being that we are still six days out, that could easily change over the coming days, so we will definitely have to monitor trends closely. It should be noted that long range model guidance continues to suggest that very strong shear (0-6km shear greater than 65kts) will be present across the southeast US, along with increasing instability, and the development of a strong 50+ kt LLJ. Locations where these factors overlap could very well see a severe threat materialize. As we get closer and see more run to run model consistency, then we will be able to iron out the details. Heavy rainfall/flooding may also become a concern with this event taking into consideration the rainfall we will receive during the short term period event, and the abundant available moisture with this event. Rain chances decrease on Saturday as the strong cold front sweeps through the area. Temperatures remain well above seasonal norms through the period, with temperatures dropping Saturday night in the wake of the front. /96

Marine
Issued at 536am CST Sunday Mar 3 2024

Areas of dense fog will likely affect bays, sounds and nearshore waters this morning. Dense fog development is likely again tonight. Small craft may need to exercise caution on Tuesday well offshore. Winds and seas will be higher near storms. /29

NOAA Mobile AL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CST this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CST this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630>636-650-655.