Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River Louisiana Marine Forecast
| Today...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Friday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Saturday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Saturday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming West 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: North 4 Feet At 4 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Monday...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Monday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 145pm CDT Monday Jun 15 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday night) Issued at 143pm CDT Monday Jun 15 2026 A broad mid/upper level trough currently encompasses probably 3/4 of the country, with only the southwestern and West Coast states not under this trough. A weak frontal boundary that moved into the local area last night remains draped across or near the forecast area this afternoon and is expected to remain the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. The boundary has become increasingly diffuse, but continues to reside within a very moist airmass. This mornings sounding data measured a record high PW for the June 15th, 2.41". For this afternoon, CAMs show scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will redevelop near the boundary and along any remnant outflow boundaries. Instability is present, but not overly strong, with forecast soundings showing generally modest CAPE and weak deep- layer shear. As a result, storms should remain poorly organized overall. However, the deep moisture profile and warm cloud depths will support efficient rainfall production. Any storms that train or repeatedly develop over the same locations could produce localized rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches in a relatively short period of time. As we saw this morning along the MS coast, upwards of 5-10 inches in small areas is certainly a possibility. Previous thougheights were that the higher risk would be focused in western portions of the CWA. While thats still true based on CAMs in general, but this morning proved it can happen pretty much anywhere locally. Therefore, we have extended the Flash Flood Watch to include the entire CWA (County Warning Area) except for coastal LA parishes south of New Orleans where flash flooding is extremely rare. Tonight into Tuesday, the stalled boundary will remain near the area and continue to serve as a focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Another weak shortwave rolling through the base of the trough will enhance convection along that boundary in the early morning hours. Unlike today, it doesn't appear that a partially drier slot will move in from the south. So am concerned with morning storms continuing into the afternoon without a lull. Long Term (Friday through Sunday night) Issued at 143pm CDT Monday Jun 15 2026 The remainder of the week continues to suggest that the wet pattern in general will continue. The biggest interest peak falls on plume of moisture in the Bay of Campeche. That wave is forecast to track through Texas from Brownsville to the Sabine Pass by the start of this portion of the forecast period. Whatever form of organization this feature is as it tracks across the region late in the week, local impacts will be pretty much the same. Abundant moisture will accompany it thus with height falls from surface pressure lowering, makes sense to see plenty of rainfall which results in localized flash flooding along with river flooding. Obviously highly dependent on where the bulk of moisture moves through the northern Gulf Coast states. As confidence has increased with local impacts from that system, have extended the Flash Flood Watch to account for the flooding potential. Marine Issued at 143pm CDT Monday Jun 15 2026 A weak surface high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf and will continue to dominate the local coastal waters. As a result, a steady south to southwesterly flow will persist, with winds generally around 10 to 15 knots through Tuesday night. These conditions will keep seas near 2 to 4 feet across the open Gulf waters, while the sounds and tidal lakes remain closer to 1 to 2 feet. By early Wednesday, a tropical disturbance in the SW Gulf is forecast to track northward along the Texas coast before moving into western and central Louisiana Wednesday night. The interaction between the weak low to the west and the strong high to the east will cause winds to increase from east to west over the entire gulf via tightening pressure gradient. Forecast boundary layer winds well into the mid 20 knot range should be a good proctor for observed winds over the coastal waters. Thus, expect the need for a Small Craft Advisory during this mid/late week timeframe. NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>058-064-071-076>087-089-090-092-094-096-098>100. GM...None. MS...Flood Watch through Friday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...None. |
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