Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River Louisiana Marine Forecast
| Today...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Friday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Saturday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Saturday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming West 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: North 4 Feet At 4 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Monday...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: East 5 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Monday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1208am CDT Monday Jun 22 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1135pm CDT Sunday Jun 21 2026 satellite imagery shows the tropical plume of moisture oriented SW-NE over our area continues to get piched by deep dry air on both sides of it. The dry air will win out finally ending the tropical moisture streaming in from the southern gulf and EASTPAC areas. Now all this moisture can concentrate over the EASTPAC to develop tropical cyclones that mainly move westward. We will still get a surge of tropical moisture from time to time, but it will be mainly from the Atlantic/Carribean areas on easterlies instead. This will finally move us into a more typical summer-like pattern. This does give way to the westerlies playing a role in our day to day weather this week and this is what occurs Tuesday through mid week. The synoptic upper trough will start to develop today and Tuesday causing the upper jet to orient NW to SE from Oklahoma to southern Miss, or at least this is the part we are concerned with. MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) features will develop to the NW and move down this path into the northeastern third of the area by late afternoon Tue. Outflows from these storms could cause new activity to develop farther south of their path so storms won't only be over the northeast third of the area, it's just the highest chances of storms will be found there. Although there will be some heavy rainfall with these storms, they will be trasitory with residence times of up to an hour with no training expected. The only possible issue is antecedent conditions. If any particular area has not had ample drying time, a quick inch of rain can still cause issues, otherwise this would not normally be an issue. The probabilities are higher for strong winds and hail than it would be for flooding rains so we will need to see how well areas dry out before Tuesday afternoon. Long Term (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1135pm CDT Sunday Jun 21 2026 With upper level high pressure sitting over the desert southwest and northern Mexico, a northern stream trough will begin to deepen over the eastern half of CONUS on Wednesday. As this troughing develops, the flow aloft will turn more northwesterly. There are indications that a large MCS could form over the southern Plains Wednesday and sweep southeastward, following the theta-e moisture axis, into the forecast area overnight Wednesday. The system will be weakening as it moves into the area, but gusty winds and some locally heavy downpours will be possible across the northern half of the CWA (County Warning Area) during this time period. The increase in cloud cover and rain chances will also help to temper the extreme heat with highs falling closer to average in the upper 80s and lower 90s and heat index readings dropping back to between 100 and 105 degrees. Thursday will see the upper level trough begin to pull to the east and the influence of the upper level ridging begin to increase. Overall, the day should be a fairly typical Summer day with highs climbing into the low 90s and scattered diurnally induced convection firing up in the late morning and afternoon hours. Rain chances will be highest north of I-10 where the influence of the ridge will be lowest and near average Probability of Precipitation for late June of 30 to 50 percent is forecast. South of I-10, only isolated activity is expected due to the slightly stronger capping inversion aloft. Friday will continue to see the influence of the ridge grow as the trough pulls out of the area. A return to a warmer and drier pattern is expected as temperatures climb back into the low to mid 90s and rain chances fall to around 20 percent for the afternoon hours. These lower rain chances are direct result of the drier air dropping PWATs (Precipitable Waters) below average or around 1.5 inches and the increasing mid- level capping inversion that reduces mid-level lapse rates to below 6.0 C/km and drops MLCAPE to around 500 J/KG. The one thing to keep an eye on is the threat of strong wind gusts from any storms that do form as dry air entrainment into the updraft could occur. By Saturday a zonal flow has developed with an upper level band of high pressure extending from Pacific to Atlantic. This brings classic summertime weather with afternoon thunderstorms predominating the pattern. Concurrently, a strong upper level ridge will be sweeping eastward and by Sunday morning will be centered to our north extending into southcentral Canada. A strong low will be spinning over the northern Rockies and beyond the forecast period will ride up over the ridge; more to come on this feature and its impacts in future discussions. [Schlotz] Marine Issued at 1135pm CDT Sunday Jun 21 2026 A surface ridge is currently centered in the eastern Gulf which is leading to southwesterly flow over the local marine zones. As an upper level trough digs into the southeastern US, the center of that high pressure will be driven west and into the north/central Gulf. That will put it right near the local area which will substantially decrease the wind field. So expect lighter and more variable winds Tues and Wed. As the trough lifts and tracks east, the surface ridge center then tracks back east which brings our winds back to southwest and closer to 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet. NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA... Heat Advisory from 10am to 8pm CDT Monday for LAZ058-064- 076>078-080-082-084-087-098-099. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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