Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River Louisiana Marine Forecast
|Today...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers Through The Day. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Late Morning And Afternoon.|
|Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely After Midnight.|
|Friday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South Late In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Day.|
|Friday Night...South Winds Near 5 Knots Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.|
|Saturday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast Late In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds.|
|Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds.|
|Sunday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds.|
|Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Monday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
Synopsis for Pascagoula to SW Pass Mississippi - GMZ501|
Synopsis for SW Pass Mississippi River to Atchafalaya River- GMZ500
1028 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020
A frontal axis will move through the coastal waters Friday allowing high pressure to become established into the weekend.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
620am CDT Thu May 28 2020
SHORT TERM...Cutoff low continues to spin over the ARKLATEX and there were a few storms in the late evening hours but by 5z the radar was clear over the region. By 08z temps ranged from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Today is a tricky forecast. Drier air has worked in as expected around the cutoff low and will likely be over the region for much of the day. That along with weak if not missing LL convergence and the wrong location with respect to the also weak jet streak does not promote convection today. The best mid level punch looks like it will be just north of the area as it rounds the base of the low today and that may lead to most of the convection remaining north of the area through the day but a few storms could impact the northwestern half /3rd of the area this afternoon. Conditions look to improve overnight and more so after 6z. The low will begin to open up as it gets picked up by the s/w that is already dropping into the northern Plains. This will actually drop a front into the area with decent LL convergence expected across the southeastern half of the CWA. That along with increasing moisture again and better instability suggest a decent chance of convection overnight. There could even be locally heavy rain with what develops.
Friday and into Friday night the trough axis becomes quite positively tilted as it drapes back across the region with the developing L/W trough over the eastern CONUS. This would suggest convection is still possible Friday and into Friday night. As we move into Saturday the trough axis shifts east and drier air will begin to move in. A few showers and thunderstorms may still be possible early Saturday but it looks like we will be drying out quickly that day.
LONG TERM...The extended part of the forecast looks warm and mostly dry. All model guidance, operational and ensembles are in great agreement with the ridge building in late this weekend and dominating the region through the first half of next week.
Ridge builds across the Plains and begins to slide east of the Rockies on Sunday while the L/W trough digs over the Atlantic coast. The ridge axis will extend across the region and much drier air will already be in place. This should lead to the first of what will likely be a couple dry days. H925 temps will be around 22-23C which should leave us with little problems approaching 90 everywhere. Things will only get warmer as we progress through the first half of the week. The ridge will continue to build southeast across the region becoming centered over the ARKLATEX Monday night and then the Lower MS Valley Tuesday night. LL temps will continue to warm and there is a chance we could begin to see a few isolated mid 90s early and mid next week. Heat index readings won't be too rough Sunday and Monday as we will still have dry air in place however dewpoints will begin to increase Tuesday and the max heat index may get in the 94- 97 range.
The forecast becomes a little tricky as we head into the back portion of next week. The ridge may begin to break down due to a few features. First appears to be a s/w dropping southeast out of central Canada and towards the Ohio and TN Valleys. This will suppress the ridge while at the same time there could be an upper low slowly taking shape in the Gulf and these two features could both erode the ridge which may allow for a few SHRA (rain showers) and TSRA to return. With the return of moisture afternoon heat index values will get in that......miserable zone. /CAB/
Like previous forecaster mentioned all is rather quiet on the coastal waters outside of convection. We will likely see offshore flow set up Friday night and could stay in place through Monday. High pressure will likely begin to slide east allowing winds to slowly veer. /CAB/
NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.