Port Fourchon, LA to Lower Atchafalaya River, LA out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
10 - 15
15 - 20
10 - 15
10 - 15
5 - 10
|Today...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas Around 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet.|
|Saturday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...West Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming East After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet.|
|Sunday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
335am CDT Thu Mar 30 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 325am CDT Thu Mar 30 2023
Early this morning, upper ridging was over the Great Plains, with the next in the series of strong storm systems moving across California. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Michigan extending southward to the local area. Skies are mostly clear with light winds this morning. Temperatures were in the mid and upper 40s north of Interstate 10/12 and in the 50s elsewhere.
The upper ridging will continue to move east today with the axis crossing the local area late this afternoon and tonight. This will allow winds to turn to the southeast and south later today and tonight, returning moisture back to the area. We'll be mostly sunny today with comparatively low humidity levels and highs in the mid and upper 70s. Mid and upper clouds return tonight, and overnight lows are likely to be 10-15 degrees warmer than this morning.
As the California system ejects northeastward through the Plains States on Friday, the tightening pressure gradient will cause rather breezy conditions with humidity levels continuing to increase with dew points well into the 60s. Not quite enough for a Wind Advisory, but won't be a calm day, either. The main forcing will be well to the north of the local area, but we can't rule out an isolated shower before sunset across extreme northwest sections of the area. At this point, threat isn't high enough to carry in the forecast. Highs on Friday through filtered sunshine should be in the lower and middle 80s. Not much spread in the guidance, but based on the recent past, wouldn't be surprised to see a few spots exceed guidance.
(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 325am CDT Thu Mar 30 2023
The current California system will reach the Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday morning, with the trailing cold front becoming parallel to the upper flow over the Gulf Coast States on Saturday. While main forcing will remain well to the north of the area, and probably north of Interstate 20, there's still the potential for a narrow scattered to broken line of thunderstorms to move across the area late Friday night. This would be mainly north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor. Drier air will filter in behind the front on Saturday, but it's questionable whether that drier air makes it the whole way to the coast or not. Should end up with a fairly nice afternoon Saturday. As we lose the southerly component to the winds, and get some low level subsidence across northeast portions of the area, the Mississippi Gulf Coast could actually have warmer high temperatures Saturday than Friday.
As we remain in a progressive upper pattern, the drier air will only hang around for 24 hours or so, with winds returning to a southerly component and dew points rebounding from around 50 on Saturday to the 60s by Sunday night. A low amplitude shortwave is expected to move through the northern Gulf Coast States Sunday night, and could produce scattered showers and storms Sunday night and Monday morning. Shortwave ridging will cross the area Monday into Tuesday as the next northern stream system lifts out of the Rockies into the northern Plains and Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. Global models remain in some disagreement on timing and location of this system, so NBM compromise is the best option for now regarding shower/thunderstorm probabilities.
Sunday looks to be the one cooler day for the week for most of the area, with temperatures warming rapidly by Tuesday. Global models in agreement that Tuesday is going to be unseasonably warm, and even downright hot. Current temperature guidance would indicate potential for record high temperatures at pretty much all our climate locations, although a sea breeze could stop things just short on the Mississippi Coast. Guidance has been pretty consistently forecasting 90/91 for a high at Baton Rouge Tuesday for a few days now. One can count the 90 degree days prior to April 10th in Baton Rouge over the last 80 years on one hand, and not use all the fingers. Wednesday probably won't be much cooler than Tuesday, and above normal temperatures don't appear to be departing any time soon.
Issued at 325am CDT Thu Mar 30 2023
Wind and wave conditions should be fairly comfortable for the next 12 hours or so. Pressure gradient increases again later this afternoon and tonight. We may need Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines again overnight tonight into Friday, but for now, it looks like we shouldn't need an advisory. With a relaxed pressure gradient Saturday into early next week, conditions may be a bit more favorable for activities.
NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.