Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...South Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
327 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021
The Atlantic high pressure ridge will rebuild into the southern half of Florida through late week. This will produce light south to southwest winds and generally favorable conditions for small craft operation, outside of showers and thunderstorms. Showers and lightning storms will affect the Intracoastal Waterway and near shore Atlantic waters into this evening.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Saturday, July 24th.
41 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
27 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
22 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
14 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
7 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
317pm EDT Tuesday July 27 2021
...Peak Heat Indices 101-106F Next Few Afternoons... ...Locally Heavy Rainfall Remains Possible Next Few Days... Current - Tonight
An early initiation of showers and storms this afternoon across east central FL with many boundary collisions occurring. Storm steering flow into this evening will be weak and generally of a southerly component (5 kts), though with such a light component larger/stronger boundary collisions will allow for storm movement to be erratic at times. PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will average well in excess of 2 inches areawide. Temperatures at 500 mb remain fairly warm at -5.5C to -6.5C. While lapse rates are not that impressive, parameters continue in place for SCT-NMRS (50-60pct) convection. A few storms could be strong with primary threats of frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40 to 45 mph and torrential downpours leading to isolated rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches. This may cause localized flooding of roads and other poorly drained urban and low-lying areas.
The Atlantic high pressure ridge axis remains suppressed across south Florida. Light morning winds have become ESE/SE near the coast with sea breeze formation and slow penetration inland. The 915 MHZ USAF Cape wind profilers continue to show a dominant SWRLY direction above the surface thru 10.0 ft, though speeds remain fairly light, generally 5-10 kts.
Lingering early evening convection will weaken and/or move offshore by midnight. Mins in the M70s for most areas. Cloud debris will gradually diminish thru the night. Offshore surface wind component light.
Wed-Tue...Previous Modified...The subtropical ridge remains centered well east for much of the week, then builds into the central Atlantic Ocean this weekend into early next week. A far western extent of the ridge axis will remain across South Florida through the period. Aloft, weak ridging is forecast with no significant features. A stalled weak front across northern FL is expected to linger through late week before dissipating this weekend. This could cause an enhancement to our rain chances late this week, as deep moisture continues to be drawn up into east central Florida.
Light winds are forecast to prevail across Central FL for much of this week into next weekend, and with the ridge axis well to our south expect light SW to W flow across Central FL. The sea breeze combined with deep moisture and daytime heating will be the driver of showers and lightning storms each afternoon, as rain chances range from 50-60 percent each day.
Frequent lightning strikes, torrential downpours, and gusty winds will continue to be the primary threat from storms. There will be a higher threat for localized flooding due to slow storm motion, with some storms likely able to produce 1-3 inches of rain in a 1-2 hour time period. Afternoon highs should reach the low 90s along the coast and low to mid 90s inland, with peak heat indices between 101 and 106 each day. Remaining muggy overnight as lows settle in the mid to upper 70s.
Afternoon-Tonight...S/SSE (ESE at coast) winds around 10 kts. The wind component will switch back to SSW/SW this evening and overnight. Afternoon and evening showers and storms along the coast could last into the evening and pose a threat across the Intracoastal Waterway and very near shore Atlantic waters. Storm steering flow will generally be out of the south or SSW and could be erratic at times due to the weak nature (5 kts). Seas generally 2-3 ft but could build to 4 ft well offshore (north of Cape) and, of course, will be locally higher in the vicinity of stronger storms.
Wed-Sun...Previous Modified...Favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local waters through the week and likely into next weekend outside of any shower/storm activity. Winds will generally be light, becoming southeast to south at 10-15 knots behind the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas around 1-2 feet, with 3 feet possible well offshore. The highest coverage of afternoon storms will focus along and west of I-95, though there will still be some activity across the Intracoastal Waterway and very near shore Atlantic waters. Weak west winds and some dominant boundary collisions will also nudge a few storms toward the coast late each afternoon and evening. Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, torrential downpours, and a few wind gusts to 35 knots will be the main threats to mariners.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories