Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm Marine Forecast
|Today...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Saturday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Chance Of Showers. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Sunday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
355 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020
Winds will continue from the southwest to west as an area of low pressure develops off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight The low will move offshore this weekend with continued low level westerly flow and deep moisture bringing high shower and storm chances each day through the holiday weekend.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Thursday, July 2nd. 44 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
33 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
24 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
17 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
10 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
353am EDT Fri July 3 2020
Today...A mid level trough off the southeast Atlantic coast continues to extend SW toward NE FL providing a favorable environment for another round of west to east moving showers and storms from mid day through this afternoon across east central FL. Deeper moisture with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) increasing above 2 inches from Osceola and Brevard county northward and proximity to the low-mid level trough axis across N FL should portend the highest coverage of afternoon storms across the northern sections reaching Lake county by late morning into mid day and then progressing toward the Volusia and Brevard coast into mid afternoon. Somewhat drier air with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) initially near 1.6 inches from Lake Okeechobee to Martin county should limit convection across far southern sections though some scattered late afternoon storms are still possible for St Lucie and Martin county beaches. Storms will move eastward at 15-20 mph today with locally heavy rainfall amounts up to 2 inches, gusty winds to 40-50 mph with some of the stronger storms and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Beach goers and small craft on area lakes and the intracoastal and near shore waters should be on the look out for storm moving in from the west today. Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s. An east swell and higher than normal tidal range will contribute to a moderate risk for rip currents at the Atlantic beaches.
Tonight...Deep moisture will continue across northern sections into the evening with the GFS model indicating weak low pressure developing off the NE FL coast. Minor impulses in the westerly flow aloft should continue scattered showers/storms for northern sections into late evening and then expect a slight shower chance north overnight. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 70s.
Saturday-Monday...A weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary will linger north of the area through the weekend into early next week, keeping the subtropical ridge axis south of central Florida. This will continue an offshore westerly flow through the period. NBM guidance looks a little too high with Probability of Precipitation for the weekend, with MOS consensus values around 30 percent lower. Forecast rain chances fall in between the two, with Probability of Precipitation increasing from 50-70 percent on Saturday, to 60-80 percent on Sunday and Monday as moisture continues to increase across the area. Highest rain chances will be across the northern half of east central Florida where greatest moisture will reside.
Wind flow pattern will favor scattered to numerous showers and storms developing across west central Florida and shifting eastward through the area, especially into the late morning and afternoon hours before pushing offshore. A few stronger storms possible, with any storm or outflow boundary interactions with the east coast sea breeze, which is more likely to develop Sunday and Monday when low level offshore flow will be weaker. Main threats will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40 to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall.
Highs will reach into the low 90s this weekend with low to mid 90s then forecast into Monday. Increasing convection and cloud cover each afternoon will provide some relief from these hot temperatures. Overnight lows will remain in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday-Friday...Models show subtropical ridge axis lifting back northward and across the area toward mid-week as a strong ridge aloft builds in from the east. Subsidence from the ridge and some drier air may lower coverage of showers and storms from Tuesday into Wednesday, with temperatures climbing into the mid 90s across the interior and low 90s along the coast. A mid-level trough/closed low will then shift toward and offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast allowing ridge to eject westward from Thu-Fri. This should lead to increasing moisture and rain chances into late week.
Today...WSW winds to 10 knots offshore will become S/SE near the coast for a time this afternoon before convection moves through and likely returns flow to the WSW by late afternoon and early evening. Seas will range from 1-2 ft nearshore to 2-3 well offshore. The mainly hazard today will be eastward moving storms which will reach the coast by early to mid afternoon and move offshore through late afternoon. Some of the stronger storms may contain gusty winds in excess of 35 knots.
Tonight...Variable wind flow due to storms this evening across the waters will become W/SW to 10-14 knots offshore overnight. Seas 1-2 ft near shore and around 2 ft offshore.
Sat-Tue...Pattern remains relatively the same with ridge axis south of the region during the period, as a weak front/trough persists near to north of Florida/Georgia state line. Winds will generally be out of the W/SW becoming S/SE nearshore as the east coast sea breeze develops. Should sea breeze form on Saturday it will likely remain pinned near the coast, with farther inland movement expected Sunday onward as low level offshore flow weakens. Wind speeds expected to remain less than 15 knots with seas 1-3 feet.
Main concern for boaters will be the threat of gusty offshore moving scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon as an offshore steering flow persists through the holiday weekend into early next week.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories