Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm Marine Forecast
|Today...Northeast Winds 25 To 30 Knots With Occasional Gusts To Gale Force. Seas 10 To 13 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Showers Likely.|
|Tonight...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 9 To 11 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Chance Of Showers.|
|Thursday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 7 To 9 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. Showers Likely.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 8 To 11 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
354 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019
Dangerous boating conditions will develop early this morning through tonight as north to northeast winds and seas increase further behind a strong cold front. Seas will remain elevated into Thursday as winds slowly decrease.
Gulf Stream Hazards: North winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts to gale force this morning. Seas building to 10 to 13 feet.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Wednesday, November 13th. 43 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
32 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
27 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet. 18 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
10 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
444am EST Wednesday Nov 13 2019
...Dangerous Seas and Surf Today... Current...Strong cold front and attendant northerly surge has reached the far southern CWA as of 4 AM. Widespread low clouds have overspread the entire CWA, and 3.9UM/RGBNTM show that the clouds over the northern third of peninsula are already moving SW, which doesn't bode well for potential breaks in the clouds across the north. Temps ranged from the M50s across the central and north interior to the L70s along the Treasure Coast.
Today - Tonight
Strong/breezy north winds will make for a cool day as low clouds hang tough areawide. Temps will moderate as flow veers to NE through this afternoon. This will also allow for light rain showers to rapidly return from the Atlantic. Maxes will range from the L-M60s north to the M70s south.
Main weather story today will be surf zone impacts as the brisk winds produce large breaking waves, pounding surf and a strong southward flowing long shore current with numerous strong Rip Currents also present. Entering the ocean is not advised today. Also expect water runup to the dune line during the next two high astronomical tide cycles around 8am and 830 PM, which could result in some minor beach erosion.
Winds will veer to easterly as the strong post-frontal high pressure ridge shifts quickly eastward, with the shower threat continuing for coastal areas. Flow remains strong enough to where coastal temps won't drop more than a few degrees from their afternoon highs, while even inland areas don't drop off more than 10F. Mins are expected to range from the U50s NW of I-4 to the L70s along the Space/Treasure Coasts.
Thursday-Friday...A southwest flow develops aloft as a mid-level trough enters the western Gulf of Mexico while another digging mid- level trough moves southward across the Central Plains. Eventual phasing of these systems will occur sometime early Friday with the trough becoming cutoff over the Gulf Coast states late in the day. In the low-levels, an inverted trough or weak low will develop in the eastern Gulf Thursday before moving northeast across Florida on Friday and begins to deepen off the SE U.S. coast.
Onshore flow in the low-levels will provide a low shower chance along the coast early Thursday, but significant dry air in the 700- 500 mb layer will keep most of the area dry for a good part of the day. Higher moisture will then begin to lift back northward from south Florida as the weak surface low/trough begins to develop in the eastern GOMEX. Shower chances then increase later in the day and especially Thursday night as with some impulses aloft move across the area while also being in the right entrance region of an upper- level jet streak. Will advertise 30-40% showers mainly for late Thursday and then 50-60% for the overnight period with the deeper moisture and lift in place. Enough instability along the Space and Treasure coasts may result in a few storms as well.
High rain chances continue into Friday being on the ascending side of the mid-level low and as our next cold front approaches the area. Shower chances will then gradually decrease from north to south Friday afternoon (GFS) or Friday night (ECMWF) as the cold front begins to move through the area. As the surface low deepens off the SE U.S. coast, a significant fetch of dry, continental air will come down the Florida peninsula behind the cold front. Will keep shower chances mention of chance of showers through Friday night due to the slower ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) solution.
Saturday - Sunday
.As the area of low pressure further deepens off the U.S. east coast, drier airmass will continue to filter down into the area with mid-level ridging building in. Rain chances, if any, look to be confined toward the coast on Saturday and would be in the form of low-topped light showers. No rain in the forecast for Sunday.
Much cooler temperatures for Saturday starting in the mid 50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s with highs topping out in the mid to upper 60s most areas (still some low 70s south of Melbourne). Even cooler temps for Saturday night/Sunday morning with low 50s inland and mid to upper 50s for coastal areas. A few spots NW of I-4 may even fall into the upper 40s! Highs Sunday rebound a few degrees with upper 60s to low 70s.
Monday - Wednesday
Low rain chances again on Monday before rain chances increase on Monday night into Tuesday as another mid-level trough approaches from the west. Highest rain chances will reside NW of I-4 with decreasing chances farther south. As the trough axis quickly pushes east of the area Tuesday night, the global models are in good consensus with dry weather prevailing during the middle of next week. Temperatures look to continue slightly below normal.
Near gale conditions continue for the Volusia waters this morning, with a strong SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to the south. North winds around 23-27KT will gust to gale force through this morning, before gradually diminishing through tonight. Seas peak 10-13FT over the Gulf Stream, 7-9FT closer to shore. Will likely need a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for seas for the Volusia waters later tonight, even as winds drop to below 20KT.
Thursday-Sunday...A prolonged period of poor to hazardous boating conditions will exist over the Atlantic waters. There may be a brief improvement in conditions during the day Friday where winds diminish and seas subside. However, numerous showers and a few storms are expected on Friday.
Conditions rapidly deteriorate again Friday night continuing through the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens due to an area of low pressure strengthening off the SE U.S. coast. Westerly winds around 20 knots on Saturday will back to NNW on Sunday. Seas will build to 7 to 8 ft on Saturday and up to 8 to 11 feet on Sunday.
The SJR at ASTF1 briefly rose to 2.8FT with the initial northerly wind surge, but appears to have now stabilized between 2.6 and 2.7FT for now. The river remains in Minor Flood Stage and will continue to be monitored in case it approaches Moderate Flood Stage due to northerly wind component backing up the downstream flow coupled with a small tidal component.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Surf Advisory from 7am this morning to 10pm EST this evening for Coastal Volusia-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St. Lucie.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10am this morning to 10pm EST this evening for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0- 20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.
Gale Warning until 10am EST this morning for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 5am EST Thursday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0- 20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.