Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: East 2 Feet At 8 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: East 2 Feet At 8 Seconds And Southwest 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: East 2 Feet At 8 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: East 2 Feet At 7 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 6 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Friday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 300pm EDT Monday August 3 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES,ARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 251pm EDT Monday August 3 2026 - Unsettled to begin the work week, with a 50 to 70% chance of showers and storms today and Tuesday. The strongest storms will be capable of producing a few wind gusts up to around 50 mph. There is a 5 to 10% chance of 3 to 4 inches of rain, which may cause flooding in poor drainage areas. - Onshore flow returns to the area by midweek, pushing the highest coverage of showers and storms over the interior by Wednesday and Thursday. - Another disturbance may arrive from the east late in the work week. If this occurs, rain chances and the risk of life- threatening rip currents at Atlantic beaches would both increase beginning Friday. Issued at 251pm EDT Monday August 3 2026 Currently - Tonight Early convection on the west coast has once again blanketed much of the peninsula in mid to upper level clouds, limiting potential for destabilization from daytime heating. The only areas that managed to see decent sunlight were south of I-4, and outflow from the earlier convection offset that destabilization some. While scattered to numerous showers with embedded isolated lightning storms remain possible thanks to the high moisture and broad upper level support from the nearby trough, the prospect for stronger storms seems to now be limited to the coast from the Cape south, and even that is being upset by the outflow overrunning the sea breeze before the boundary can develop much. Storms here will be capable of gusty winds to 55 mph, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours. While convection elsewhere is expected to be weaker, the enhanced 20-25 kt steering flow means even moderate convection could produce gusts to 45 mph. The potential for rainfall amounts over 2" has decreased due to how convection evolved, but there still remains a threat for locally high rainfall amounts that could lead to minor flooding of low-lying areas, especially along the coast south of the Cape. Afternoon highs near to slightly below normal in the U80s-L90s thanks to the high cloud cover. Rain chances drop in the evening but once again don't go away in the overnight, and a 20-30% is maintained. Tuesday...A lobe of upper-level energy becomes cut-off over the Deep South at the parent trough that has been resident over the eastern US that last few days lifts away. The elongated surface low centered over the Northeast ejects with the trough, but the abandoned mid-level disturbance to the south will help keep the trailing front draped across the the North Gulf states in place. Offshore flow will continue a bit longer between the front and high pressure over the western Atlantic, but will weaken and become more southerly. High moisture in the weakening offshore flow remains over the area, but not as anomalously high as previous days, supporting 40-60% rain chances in the afternoon and evening, and should finally see an end to the overnight rain chances. Could even see rain chances drop across the northern counties if the mid-level low manages to develop a weak surface low and advect drier air towards North Florida. There is again potential for early convection near the west coast to upset how things evolve the rest of the day, so confidence in exact timing and strength is very low. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated embedded storms are expected in areas clouded over, while locations that get sunlight could see higher coverage heavier showers and stronger lightning storms. Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure over the western Atlantic and its surface projection shift closer to the Eastern Seaboard as the cut-off low is lifted into a broad trough swinging down to the to the northern Plains and Ohio valley. Winds start light and variable Wednesday morning, then become onshore (easterly) in the afternoon, where they'll remain through the rest of the week. The onshore flow will allow the east coast sea breeze to push well inland, shifting the highest rain chances over the interior. The plume of high moisture will linger over the area Wednesday, before being ushered west, with closer to normal moisture advecting across the peninsula Thursday. Better daytime heating looks to offset the lost moisture, and rain chances remain 40-60%. Could see an early start to showers and storms near and along the east coast, then moving inland with a collision over the interior Wednesday, and closer to the west coast Thursday. Friday - Sunday The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged. High pressure over the western Atlantic is flattened and shunted some as the trough to our north pushes towards the Mid-Atlantic seaboard and offshore, but the surface high will stay nearly stationary off the southeast seaboard, keeping the ridge axis to the north and us in onshore flow. Models continue to bring a weak disturbance and higher moisture towards Florida along the southern edge of the Bermuda high. Latest trends have generally been weaker, most bringing an open wave that half of which recurve offshore causing little to no local impact, and the other half recurve over/near Florida but vary how far north/south. A few solutions develop more of a trough, which further complicates the forecast by introducing advection of drier air on the western/southern side of the feature. Therefore, it is too early to tell what if any impacts this wave could bring, but the return of high rain chances and minor flooding impacts are on the table. Otherwise, near typical Florida summer conditions with afternoon thunderstorms and highs in the U80s-L90s, possibly creeping towards the M90s inland. Marine Issued at 251pm EDT Monday August 3 2026 Today-Friday...Generally favorable winds and seas for boating in the local Atlantic waters through mid-week. A weak cut-off low pressure system over the Deep South and the attendant weak cold front draped across the North Gulf coast will keep the Atlantic high offshore through Tuesday. Offshore (southwesterly) flow will continue between these two systems the next couple days, becoming weaker on Tuesday. The high will then shift closer to the eastern seaboard Wednesday, shifting winds onshore (easterly), and remain in control of local conditions through late week. During the offshore flow period the sea breeze circulation will shift winds S-SE, and enhance flow during the onshore period. Wind speeds 5-15 kts and seas 1-3 ft through Wednesday. A weak disturbance is forecast to approach Florida Thursday into Friday, which could increase winds to 15-20 kts and seas to 4-6 ft at times. Mariners should monitor the forecast and be prepared to exercise caution. NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. |
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