Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: East 6 Feet At 8 Seconds And Northwest 4 Feet At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Southwest After Midnight. Seas 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 7 Feet At 10 Seconds And Northwest 3 Feet At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers. |
| Saturday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 7 Feet At 10 Seconds And Northwest 3 Feet At 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...Northwest Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 6 Feet At 10 Seconds And North 4 Feet At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sunday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: North 5 Feet At 8 Seconds And Northeast 5 Feet At 10 Seconds. |
| Sunday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 5 Feet At 10 Seconds And North 4 Feet At 8 Seconds. |
| Monday...North Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. |
| Monday Night...North Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. |
| Tuesday...North Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 204pm EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Issued at 812am EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 The threat for heavy rainfall and flooding will increase in Volusia and portions of adjacent counties through the morning. Keeping a close eye on heavy showers just off the Volusia coast on the weakening frontal boundary that are beginning to organize into a band that is expected to gradually push inland through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon. Model soundings show the classic long-skinny profiles indicative of heavy rainfall, including very high moisture (PWAT (Precipitable Water) over 2") and modest instability (MUCAPE ~1,500 J/kg). While shear isn't overly impressive, directional shear from N-NE low-level flow opposed by S-SW flow aloft will be sufficient so support training of heavy rainfall in this band. Recent HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) and RRFS runs show widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3" where this band sets up, with locally high amounts to around 5", and a very low chance for amounts up to 8". Soils in this area are at or near saturation, worsened by coastal flooding concerns along the Intracoastal waterways, and it won't take much rainfall to cause flooding or even flash flooding. Issued at 320am EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Today - Tonight A weak boundary is forecast to settle across central Florida today, resulting in a moist airmass remaining in place locally. Forecast PWAT (Precipitable Water) values exceed 2" areawide, with high rain chances anticipated across east central Florida. PoPs remain between 60-80%, with the greatest chances focused along the coast. Flooding remains the primary concern for today, especially given the highly saturated soils across the area from several previous days of rainfall. It will not take much rainfall to cause flooding given these conditions, so areas that see training bands of showers or receive multiple rounds of showers will be particularly at risk for flash flooding. Widespread rain totals of 1 to 3" are forecast, with locally higher amounts of 5" and greater possible. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the coastal counties through 8pm tonight. Sufficient MUCAPE of 1500 J/kg and greater will support the potential for storm development today, with lightning strikes likely the primary concern with anything that develops, in addition to the heavy downpours and flooding concerns. Gusty winds from storms cannot be ruled out, though confidence is lower. The chance for storm development decreases into the overnight hours. Aside from showers and storms, guidance continues to favor a tight pressure gradient across the area today, which will be further enhanced by the development of a surface low tonight. Northeast winds persist at 10 to 15 mph across the area, with gusts to 25 mph possible, especially along the coast. Winds decrease slightly overnight. The persistent onshore flow paired with higher seas will also maintain hazardous beach conditions through today. Coastal flooding, minor to moderate beach erosion, high surf, and a high risk of rip currents are all forecast at the local beaches. Entering the ocean is strongly discouraged. High cloud coverage from the greater moisture present across the area will limit daytime heating, with highs only reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures fall into the upper 60s to low 70s. Saturday...Once the surface low develops Friday night, it is forecast to slowly lift northeastward, dragging its attendant cold front across the Florida peninsula. Drier air slowly starts to intrude southward towards east central Florida, which will help cut rain chances down to 30 to 40% on Saturday. Low risk for storms on Saturday, especially given less instability present. A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out entirely though, so maintained a 40% chance of storms. Any shower and storm activity that manages to develop is forecast to subside into the overnight hours, especially as the front moves south of the area. With the surface low so close to the area and the pressure gradient tightening locally, winds are anticipated to be the breeziest on Saturday, especially across Volusia County. Winds back to out of the north-northwest at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible across the area. Conditions begin to improve into the overnight hours as the low pulls away from Florida. Coastal hazards are anticipated to persist into Saturday. Similar to today, coastal flooding, rough surf, minor to moderate beach erosion, and a high risk of rip currents will continue. Residents and visitors continue to be strongly advised to avoid the ocean and beaches. Temperatures across the area remain fairly consistent in the upper 70s to low 80s during the afternoon hours, with lows falling into the 60s behind the cold front. Sunday-Thursday...Drier air is forecast to continue settling across the peninsula through the extended period behind the front. As a result, rain chances drop below 20% areawide through the remainder of the weekend and into the middle of next week. Temperatures on Sunday remain slightly below normal in the upper 70s to low 80s, but increase to near- normal in the low to mid 80s Monday and beyond. Low temperatures fall into the 60s areawide, with the cooler temperatures focused across the interior, especially near and north of the I-4 corridor. Coastal hazards are anticipated to slowly improve through the extended period. Coastal flooding due to high astronomical tides and a high risk of rip currents due to long period swells are anticipated to continue through at least Sunday. Longer range guidance hints at lower chances for coastal flooding beyond Monday, but will continue to monitor and adjust the Coastal Flood Advisory as needed. Marine Issued at 320am EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Poor boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend. A front drifts southward across the waters today with an area of low pressure lifting northeastward across the area Saturday, with the cold front moving across the local waters on Saturday. Rain chances remain high through tonight at 70 to 90 percent, falling to 30 to 50 percent on Saturday. East-northeast winds 15 to 20 knots back to out of the north-northwest on Saturday at 15 to 25 knots. Seas build up to 8 to 9 feet across the offshore waters, with 4 to 7 foot seas forecast elsewhere. Winds and seas have jumped up in the Treasure Coast nearshore waters, with buoys 68 and 14 reporting E-ESE winds pushing to 20 kts and seas up to 7 ft, and the Small Craft Advisory has been extended to include this zone. Advisory continue for all Central Florida Atlantic waters through at least Saturday night. Behind the front, winds diminish to 10 to 15 knots and seas are forecast to slowly subside late this weekend into early next week, with a return of generally favorable and dry boating conditions forecast from Monday onward. NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...Flood Watch until 8pm EDT this evening for FLZ041-141-154-159- 164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. Coastal Flood Warning until 4am EDT Sunday for FLZ141-347-447. High Surf Advisory until 4am EDT Sunday for FLZ141. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4am Sunday to 4am EDT Monday for FLZ141-347-447. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4am EDT Monday for FLZ154-159-164- 647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575. |
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