Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...South Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Period 10 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tonight...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Period 10 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.|
|Monday...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds Increasing To 9 Seconds In The Afternoon. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.|
|Monday Night...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 9 Seconds Becoming 3 Seconds After Midnight. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tuesday...South Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Along The Coast To South Southwest 10 To 20 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Seas Around 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Tuesday Night...West Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots Along The Coast To West Southwest 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Along The Coast To Northwest 10 To 20 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...North Winds Around 10 Knots Along The Coast To North Northeast 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Along The Coast, Gusts Up To 20 Knots In The Evening. Seas 2 To 3 Feet Along The Coast And 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional To 6 Feet In The Gulf Stream. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet Along The Coast And 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional To 8 Feet In The Gulf Stream. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop.|
AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
357 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020
Northeasterly Atlantic swell will diminish over the next day or so, allowing for improving conditions early in the week. Easterly wind surges could bring bouts of cautionary conditions to the Atlantic and Lake Okeechobee waters at times.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Northeasterly swell could produce 4 to 5 foot seas over the Gulfstream through the rest of the weekend.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Mar 28, 2020 at 1200 UTC...
- 16 nautical miles east of Fowey Rocks. 23 nautical miles east of Port Everglades. 19 nautical miles east of Lake Worth.
- 18 nautical miles east of Jupiter Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
408am EDT Sunday Mar 29 2020
.Discussion... Short Term - Today Through Monday Night
Another foggy start possible over portions of South Florida including the interior and inland suburbs of both coastal metro areas. High pressure will remain lodged over the region to close out the weekend and kick off the work week. The southeasterly flow today will keep warm air flowing into the region which in turn will have the chance to warm up as it crosses the peninsula resulting in another toasty day across the east coast suburbs, interior, and Southwest Florida again.
Little change to the pattern on Monday with more fog possible in the morning and another hot day. Sea breezes will be possible both Sunday and Monday, which could bring some relief for the immediate coast but it will still warm up inland. Shower chances are not zero and the main focus for any convection would be around sea breeze boundaries and where they could collide if they push inland significantly due to the lightening surface flow Monday. Otherwise, most records on Sunday are in the lower 90s which should be safe if today's forecast pans out. The story for Monday is a bit different as the record at Naples is 88 and could be threatened.
Long Term (Tuesday through Saturday):
The dominant surface ridge and high pressure aloft will finally begin to erode as a deepening trough/low complex races across the E CONUS Tuesday and Wednesday. An associated frontal boundary is shown by the long range models pushing southeast and through the FL peninsula in the late Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. In response, the high aloft migrates SW into the Gulf region, while the surface ridge weakens and moves into the west Atlantic. This will allow for winds across SoFlo to veer to the south/southwest ahead of the frontal boundary.
The overall synoptic scenario will result in increasing chances of showers, and potential for a few thunderstorms to form. Consensus in model solutions is for SoFlo to experience the bulk of the rain, along with slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon/early evening. But with the best upper level dynamic support remaining well to the north of SoFlo, so the main impacts should be limited to showers. POPs actually went down a little in latest model runs with 25-30% at best, with the FROPA basically moving out of the area Thursday mid morning. As mentioned in previous discussions, this timing could be adjusted as new model runs become available, but attm there is no compelling reason to deviate from the ongoing forecast philosophy.
The winds continue to veer to the W/NW on Thursday and eventually N by Friday behind the FROPA with another round of drier and stable air settling across the area. However, models are now hinting at another, stronger trough system over the SE CONUS sending another front into SoFlo for the start of the weekend. For now, will keep inherited low-end scattered coverage for Saturday and wait for upcoming model data before making any significant changes.
Temperatures should remain warm on Tuesday with highs in the mid- upper 80s to low 90s. Then a rather brief cooling trend begins on Wednesday behind the FROPA with afternoon highs remaining in the low- mid 80s by the end of the long term.
Northeasterly Atlantic swell will begin to diminish today allowing seas to diminish heading into early next week. Easterly wind surges could also bring bouts of cautionary conditions to the Atlantic and Lake Okeechobee waters at times.
.Beach Forecast... The threat of rip currents will be high along the Atlantic beaches today and likely remain elevated into the early portions of the next work week.
.Aviation... Generally VFR though some low cigs and visibilities could lead to bouts of sub-VFR conditions this morning, particularly at APF. Wind will remain southeasterly through much of the period except at APF where a Gulf sea breeze will turn the wind westerly late morning into the afternoon.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.
Short term/Marine/Beaches...RAG Long term...AR.