Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...S Se Winds 5 Kt Becoming E. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Period 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely In The Morning. A Chance Of Tstms Through The Day. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Period 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sat...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Period 7 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Sat Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Period 7 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Tstms In The Morning. Showers. Tstms Likely.|
|Sun Night And Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To Around 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To Around 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. N Ne Swell 3 Ft After Midnight. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely Late In The Evening. A Slight Chance Of Tstms Through The Night. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To Around 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. N Ne Swell 3 Ft. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
1011am EDT Fri September 29 2023
Issued at 1005am EDT Fri September 29 2023
Fairly tranquil morning thus far across South Florida. 12Z MFL sounding indicates slight drying (although still plenty of moisture), with PW dropping to 2.1 inches owing to a subtle backing of winds out of the ESE within the boundary layer. A modest augmentation of low-level SRH and wind shear can also be noticed, which may allow for a few isolated stronger storms today. With that being said, heavy rainfall yielding localized flooding is the main concern for today, with a few isolated locations possibly receiving rainfall totals up to 2-3 inches - primarily over interior portions of South Florida, although still possible for populated metro regions as well.
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 217am EDT Fri September 29 2023
Today into Tonight
A stationary front was located over the Lake Okeechobee early this morning which high pressure over the Western Atlantic waters. The weather pattern will keep an light southerly steering flow in place over South Florida through tonight bringing in the deep tropical air mass to the region from the south.This will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the sea breezes today and slowly move into the interior areas through the afternoon hours. POPs will remain the 70 to 90 percent range across the region with the highest POPs over the interior and Lake Okeechobee region today.
The showers and thunderstorms will then slowly dissipate this evening due to the lost of heating. However, the metro areas of South Florida could still see some showers and thunderstorms especially late tonight, due to a possible coastal trough developing. Therefore, will keep scattered POPS in the forecast for the metro areas of South Florida through tonight with the interior areas see evening POPs before going dry.
The forecast PWAT (Precipitable Water) values through tonight will also remain in the 2.1 to 2.4 inches across South Florida which is near the maximum for this time of year. This will lead to possible heavy rainfall with any showers or thunderstorms through tonight. At this time, will not be issuing any flood watches for South Florida due to the isolated heavy rainfall the pass couple of days. However, will continue to monitory the latest forecast and the heavy rainfall coverage through tonight to see if we need to issue a short fuse flood watch for portions of South Florida.
Highs today will should warm up to around 90 degrees except mid to upper 80s east coast metro areas. However, with the high humidity across South Florida today the heat index readings could get into the lower 100s over South Florida. Lows tonight will remain in the mid to upper 70s over South Florida to near 80 along the east coastal areas.
.Saturday... The stationary front will continue to remain stationary over the Lake Okeechobee area on Saturday, as the sea breezes slowly develop and push inland. This will continue to keep the deep tropical moisture in place over South Florida leading to another around of showers and thunderstorms. POPs will remain the likely range on Saturday over South Florida.
PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will also remain in the 2.1 to 2.3 range on Saturday over South Florida leading to another day of possible heavy rainfall.
Highs on Saturday will again be in the lower 90s over most areas except around 90 along the metro areas. With the high humidity, the heat indices could get up into the lower to mid 100s over South Florida.
(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 217am EDT Fri September 29 2023
Active weather is expected to continue through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week as a large trough remains draped across the eastern CONUS. This will assist the stationary frontal boundary to stay in place across northern FL through the end of the weekend. On Sunday, the boundary will keep the abundant tropical moisture in South Florida for one last day (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) ~2.2-2.4"). Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday with Probability of Precipitation reaching 70-80% in the afternoon and evening. Sea breezes and convective boundaries have been the essential players in development this past week. A shortwave on Sunday will assist convective development, which may lead to more activity. With the exceptionally saturated grounds, flooding continues to be a concern especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties' flood prone urban areas.
As we begin early next week, the stubborn frontal boundary will gain momentum and push southwards. With this movement, it will bring drier air into the region with the potential for PWATs (Precipitable Waters) to fall to ~1.5-1.8" and dew points drop into the upper 60s and low 70s. The drier air will make its entrance likely mid-to-late Monday; thus, we will see the true drop in rain shower and thunderstorm coverage and potential to start on Tuesday. The chance for Probability of Precipitation will fall into the 30-50% range, which is likely to continue through the long term period. Temperatures for the period will be in the mid-80s to low 90s with overnight lows mostly in the 70s.
Issued at 217am EDT Fri September 29 2023
The winds will remain from the easterly direction through this weekend into early next week, as wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots increase to breezy conditions by end of this weekend into early next week. This will allow for the Atlantic seas to remain in the 2 to 5 feet range today before decreasing a little bit to 2 to 4 feet this weekend. The Gulf seas will remain at 2 feet or less through this weekend. Therefore, Boating conditions looks good outside of any showers or thunderstorms this weekend for South Florida waters.
Issued at 217am EDT Fri September 29 2023
A high risk of rip currents will continue for the Palm Beach County beaches through this evening with a moderate risk for the Broward County and Miami-Dade County beaches. An elevated risk of rip currents is likely to persist for the Atlantic beaches through this weekend due to an moderate easterly wind flow.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible during high tide cycles this weekend along the Atlantic and gulf coast beaches due to King Tides. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been extended for the Atlantic coast of South Florida through at least Sunday. For the west coast and far southern coastal Miami-Dade County, minor coastal flooding is possible, and a Coastal Flood Statement has also been extended through at least Sunday.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3pm EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173.
High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.