Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...South Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...South Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Along The Coast To Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Showers Likely. Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Friday...East Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely In The Morning. Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Day. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...East Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Chance Of Showers Through The Night. Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Saturday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
| AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
1005 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021
The western edge of the Bermuda High persists over South Florida. Overall, mostly benign marine conditions expected across the south Florida coastal waters. Only exception would be around convection where cloud-to-water lightning, gusty winds, and locally higher seas will remain possible.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Locally elevated seas and gusty winds in the strongest showers and thunderstorms.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Jun 17, 2021 at 1200 UTC...
- 6 nautical miles east of Fowey Rocks.
- 9 nautical miles east southeast of Port Everglades.
- 10 nautical miles east northeast of Lake Worth.
- 12 nautical miles east of Jupiter Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
814pm EDT Monday Jun 21 2021
No major changes to the forecast at this time. Quiet weather conditions expected overnight, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible -- mainly across the local waters. For tomorrow, the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms should be across the inland and northern portions of South Florida. Another hot and humid day is expected tomorrow, with heat indices ranging from 100 to 107 across the area, though shower and thunderstorm development should provide some relief from the heat over inland areas.
AVIATION(00Z TAFS)... Primarily VFR expected through the period. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breeze boundaries tomorrow afternoon, though the greatest coverage should remain over the inland and northern portions of South Florida. Generally southeasterly flow, with the exception of APF where a Gulf breeze and southwesterly winds are forecast for tomorrow afternoon.
SHORT TERM... Through Tuesday:
A moist and unstable airmass remains in place over South Florida today with heat indices this afternoon in the triple digits and dewpoint temperatures approaching 80 degrees. The axis of the ridge of high pressure remains anchored over South Florida, although it has been weakened by the influences of Tropical Storm Claudette currently moving offshore of the southeastern CONUS this morning. The overall flow will remain light out of the south with both seabreezes developing this afternoon and pushing inland. The inland progression of both sea-breezes as well as the southerly prevailing flow will act to focus showers and thunderstorms over the interior and inland portions of South Florida.
With such a moist and buoyant airmass combined with insolation and convergent boundaries, there is certainly the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Looking at the 12z MFL sounding, parameters indicate the potential for a primary hazard of strong wind gusts associated with downbursts in the strongest convective towers as the DCAPE value on this morning sounding was an impressive 1326 J/KG. RAOB (Radiosonde Observation or Upper-Air Observation) analysis suggests that MLCAPE values will be approaching 4000-5000 J/KG across the interior this afternoon which will allow for efficient updrafts to develop and blossom. Although lapse rates are not as favorable as yesterday, they are still favorable enough for strong convective towers to develop. Small hail is also possible with the strongest convective towers, although the primary threat today should be strong to damaging winds. The primary storm mode today should be multicellular, with various outflow boundary interactions and the sea-breezes allowing for new convection to develop. Outside of the showers and thunderstorms, ample diurnal heating will allow for high temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower to mid 90s across South Florida this afternoon.
Once the solar heating is lost after sunset, showers and thunderstorms will begin to gradually weaken and dissipate during the evening hours. Showers and potentially a thunderstorm or two could develop overnight along the land breeze over the nearshore waters and briefly make it onshore. Winds will become light and variable overnight before the diurnally driven sea-breeze circulations kick in once again tomorrow afternoon. A similar pattern will evolve tomorrow as the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be across the interior, with the potential of frequent lightning, gusty winds, and localized flooding with the strongest convective column. High temperatures tomorrow will once again reach the upper 80s to mid 90s with the heat indices values reaching into the triple digits.
Long Term Tuesday Night through Thursday:
A series of perturbations will maintain mean troughing across the eastern CONUS while a mid level anticyclone centers over the southern Plains. A shear axis/zone of ascent will exist from just offshore of the Carolinas into central and southern Florida, which will provide a source for large-scale ascent in addition to low level forcing provided via the sea breeze boundaries. Therefore better than climatological rain chances are anticipated, with the easterly wind component favoring inland areas and the Gulf Coast for the best afternoon/evening coverage. That said decent rain chances will exist for all areas given the abundance of moisture. Seasonal temperatures should prevail.
Friday through Monday:
A shortwave ridge may prevail temporarily early in the period with some mid level drying occurring. Thereafter troughing aloft should again prevail with decent daily shower and thunderstorm coverage anticipated. The low-level wind flow should remain east to southeast, which again favors the best afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage over interior areas and the Gulf Coast region.
Southerly winds across the region will shift a little more back to the southeast by tomorrow. With a ridge of high pressure remaining in place through midweek, Generally benign boating conditions should prevail through the forecast period, except with any thunderstorm that may form. Expect brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds with the strongest cells.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.