Marine Weather Net

Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ670 Forecast Issued: 728 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Tonight...S Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Period 8 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight.
Mon...S Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms.
Mon Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms.
Tue...E Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To Around 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms.
Tue Night...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To Around 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms.
Wed...S Se Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts To Around 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms.
Wed Night...Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.
Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To Around 20 Kt Along The Coast To S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To Around 25 Kt In The Gulf Stream. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.
Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To Around 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. N Ne Swell 3 Ft. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.
Fri...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. N Ne Swell 3 Ft In The Morning. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
759pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 323pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

Easterly flow across the region as the frontal boundary continues to wash out to our north. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with the focus over the interior. Similar to yesterday a few heavy downpours will be possible with a localized flooding concern before activity moves over the interior. A brief gusty downburst wind may also be possible this afternoon.

On Monday, we will begin to see the winds become more southeasterly and breezy. Tropical moisture will also begin to advect into the area with precipitable water values increasing. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as coverage begins to increase. The primary threat appears to be localized flooding though a couple stronger storms with a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. We will also begin to watch the low-level flow and shear profile as we move throughout the day on Monday for the potential of multicellular to tropical supercells moving towards the region. This is something we will monitor as we move throughout the forecast period and continue to update with mesoscale analysis as Monday unfolds.

Warm and humid temperatures continue with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices approaching triple digits.

Long Term
(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 323pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

Early portions of the long-term forecast period (Monday night/Tuesday morning) will likely be dominated by impacts associated with what is presently Tropical Storm Ian. This system is forecast to intensify into a major hurricane at some point as it progresses north/northwestward into the warm eastern Gulf of Mexico waters. The onset of showers and thunderstorms associated with outer bands of Ian may begin late morning and extend into Tuesday morning. A noticeable augmentation of low-level (0-3km) wind shear has been suggested by model fields in association with broad-scale rotation associated with TS/Hurricane Ian. This environment may favor the development of tornadoes within rainbands, particularly for the NE quadrant of the system. Additionally, intense tropical rainfall- rates in association with convection will be capable of producing heavy rainfall within a short period of time, which may lead to localized and even flash-flooding. The Weather Predication Center has introduced a slight risk for excessive rainfall, which is subject to change depending on the forecast track and intensity of Ian. Rainfall coverage may be numerous to widespread for most of Tuesday and Wednesday. Generally, periods of heavy rainfall and strong winds can be expected across portions of South Florida. Uncertainty still remains in terms of the forecast track and intensity upon approach; overall impacts imparted on South Florida are likely to change based on the evolving track and intensity of TS/Hurricane Ian.

Residual rainfall associated with outer bands from Ian may linger into middle portions of the week, but should clear out gradually by Thursday as dry air is filters into the region in the wake of Ian departure. A bit of disagreement between later model runs of ECMWF/GFS, which could be attributed into track difference with Ian. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) suggests dry air keeps Probability of Precipitation low region-wide, while GFS (Global Forecast System) shows a ribbon of residual moisture along the east coast. Regardless, climo Probability of Precipitation values ranging from 30-50 after Thursday suggest a return to seasonable conditions, possibly a touch drier with the suggested ECMWF solution.

Maximum temperatures will be seasonably cooler for early to middle portions of the week. Temperatures may struggle to exceed 80 degrees for portions of South Florida, particularly where convective debris is most dense. Generally, maximum temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s across South Florida for Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday should be more seasonable with maximum temperatures generally in the upper 80s.

Marine
Issued at 323pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

Moderate breeze out of the northeast to easterly flow will continue through today in the wake of front across central Florida. Seas will generally remain around 2 to 4 ft across the local waters. Increasing moisture will allow an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon, which may be scattered to numerous in coverage at times.

Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to move northwest through the Caribbean Sea this weekend and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Significant marine impacts are possible for the local waters by early this upcoming week. Mariners should monitor the latest forecast updates and information as it becomes available.

Beaches
Issued at 323pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

There is a high risk of rip currents for Palm Beach County and a moderate risk for Broward and Miami Dade. A coastal flood statement is in effect for the east coast of South Florida. Minor flooding of roadways and low-lying areas may be possible during times of high tide.

Early this upcoming week, Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to approach the Florida Straits from the south. While uncertain, hazardous beach and surf conditions may materialize as this system approaches the region for both Gulf and Atlantic beaches.

Hydrology
Issued at 323pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in association with what is presently Tropical Storm Ian as it moves northward into the Gulf of Mexico. The Weather Predication Center has introduced a slight risk for excessive rainfall, with Tuesday through Wednesday being the primary period of concern. Localized flooding is likely for locations that receive repeated bouts of heavy rainfall, while flash flooding may be possible for any location across South Florida through this period. For a three day period spanning from Monday morning through Thursday morning, forecast rainfall totals range from 3 to 5 inches, with isolated totals exceeding 7 inches for some locations. Total expected rainfall coverage in association with the system will likely ensue early Tuesday and extend into Thursday morning, though this timing is subject to change based on the projected storm track/intensity.

NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8pm EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None. GM...None.