Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...South Winds 10 Knots Along The Coast To South Southeast 5 To 10 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Monday...East Northeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Along The Coast, Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. In The Gulf Stream, Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet Building To 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas To 8 Feet After Midnight. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet Along The Coast And 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional To 9 Feet In The Gulf Stream. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Chance Of Showers. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots Along The Coast To East 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday And Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots Along The Coast To East Southeast 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Chance Of Thunderstorms|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
313am EDT Sunday May 31 2020
Short Term - Today Through Monday
Latest surface analyses and model representations depict a large high pressure system sprawling across much of the east CONUS, and pushing a trough/low complex into the eastern seaboard. The low will depart the NE CONUS today, while an associated, trailing surface frontal boundary migrates southward into the northern half of the Florida peninsula. Satellite representation of this boundary remains poorly defined, but still remaining organized enough to bring some deep convection just north of the CWA this afternoon. Meanwhile, weak surface ridging will remain in place today over Soflo with persisting SE flow, while model soundings still depict steep lapse rates at the mid levels along with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) near 2 inches.
The overall synoptic scenario will again result in another day of sea breeze-driven convection with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorm activity favoring interior and western areas as sea breezes push inland. However, outflow boundary collisions may again help in triggering additional storms in areas with the lowest forecast POPs, especially towards the late afternoon hours.
For Monday, models show better consensus in pushing the remnants of the surface boundary past the FL Keys, and bring ENE flow in its wake. Despite the return of high pressure behind the FROPA, abundant moisture between the Bahamas and the FL east coast will continue to advect towards SoFlo, and bringing even higher POPs than Sunday. Or at least that's what model solutions are depicting. Still, higher probability of precipitation remain in the interior and west areas, but with slightly better chances of having showers and a few storms over the Atlantic metro areas.
As in previous days, expect temperatures to continue hitting the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon with moist/muggy periods at times.
Long Term - Tuesday through Saturday
The latest computer model guidance shows what is left of a very week frontal boundary draped just to the north of the region on Tuesday. Both of the GFS and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) are starting to show deep moisture advection beginning to take place during this time frame as a stronger easterly flow will begin to take shape. The stronger easterly flow will be the result of the building pressure gradient between the weak frontal boundary and the stronger area of high pressure trying to build in from the north. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to form on Tuesday and Wednesday especially during the afternoon and evening hours as the sea breezes develop and push inland. The greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms will be across the interior areas as an easterly flow will remain in place. There will be enough instability in the area to support a stronger thunderstorm or two during this time frame as the remnants of the weak frontal boundary will remain just to the north.
As the end of the week approaches, the latest GFS and the ECMWF are starting to show more of an increase in moisture as the decaying frontal boundary remains stalled out over the region combined with a ridge of high pressure looking to stay just off to the north. This will allow for enhanced chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue especially across the interior sections during the afternoon hours. With the increase in moisture towards the end of the week, periods of heavy rainfall may be possible across portions of South Florida depending on how the exact pattern sets up. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.
High pressure across the region and its associated surface ridge will keep southeasterly winds over the coastal waters today. Benign boating conditions continue through early Monday, except in the vicinity of thunderstorms. A cold front is expected to reach South Florida on Tuesday with winds backing to NE, and periods of rough seas and gusty winds, especially over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will begin to quickly subside on Wednesday and remain benign through the end of the work week.
.Aviation... High pressure over the western Atlantic will keep southeasterly winds around 10 kt today, then becoming light and variable again tonight after 00-01Z. VCSH remains in the TAFS (Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts) after 17-18Z, and will defer to upcoming updates to decide to include TS if necessary for this afternoon. For now, VFR should continue to prevail through most of the forecast period with showers in the vicinity of the terminals this afternoon.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.
Marine...17/AR Aviation...17/AR Short Term
17/AR Long Term...55/CWC