Marine Weather Net

Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

ESE
WINDS
15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

ESE
WINDS
15
KNOTS

SUNDAY

ESE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

ESE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ670 Forecast Issued: 1001 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
Rest Of Today...East Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Period 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tonight...East Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Period 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late In The Evening.
Sunday...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop.
Sunday Night...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop.
Monday...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday Night...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday...East Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...East Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Late In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Showers Through The Night.
Wednesday...East Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Chance Of Showers. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
958am EDT Sat May 21 2022

The 12z soundings from Miami and Key West show classic Saharan Air Layer (SAL) conditions, with a very warm and moist sfc/boundary layer underneath a dry/subsident 925-650 mb layer. Mid-level lapse rates are quite steep for South Florida, ranging from 7.5 to 8 C/km which is another hallmark of SAL. Consensus of the convective allowing models is for thunderstorms to be mainly confined to areas around and west of Lake Okeechobee this afternoon and early evening, with little to no precipitation elsewhere. This pattern generally makes sense considering the SE-S low level flow focusing moisture convergence over those areas. Made some slight adjustment to the afternoon/evening Probability of Precipitation to focus the highest values west of Lake Okeechobee, then a fairly tight gradient of lower Probability of Precipitation to less than 20% south of West Palm Beach (including the Miami/Fort Lauderdale metro).

As far as hazards are concerned, the steep mid-level lapse rates along with upper level divergence from a mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should support a few strong storms late this afternoon and early this evening over interior and western sections of the southern Florida peninsula, with one or two severe storms possible around and west of Lake Okeechobee. This same area also has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall and localized flooding.

Raised high temperatures a couple of degrees over inland SW Florida due to quite impressive 1000-850 mb thickness values of 1436m. Mid 90s will be common from the Everglades to inland SW Florida this afternoon. Heat index values will reach 100F pretty much everywhere this afternoon, and exceed 105F in a few areas of inland SW Florida.

Adjustments have been made to the graphical hazardous weather outlook graphics in accordance with the aforementioned analysis.

(Issued 728am EDT Sat May 21 2022)

Occasional MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) ceilings at all terminals through 17z in a moist SE low level wind flow, otherwise VFR conditions will be more prevalent today. SHRA/TSRA will be more confined to the interior and western portion of the FL peninsula between 21z-03z, possibly impacting KAPF where VCTS is in the forecast. East coast sites should remain mostly precip-free through the period. SE wind increasing to 12-15 knots with periodic gusts over 20 knots through 00z.

(Issued 326am EDT Sat May 21 2022)

.ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TODAY... .MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN LAKE REGION TODAY... .HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURN TO EAST COAST TODAY... SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)... Saturday is a bit of a transition day as the plume of tropical moisture spreads northward and a Saharan air layer (SAL) attempts to enter the region in its wake during the weekend. With the infiltration of this drier, warmer air will come a gradient between the more unsettled pattern we have experienced in the last day or so thanks to the moist, tropical airmass and the drier, hot conditions which will help limit some of the convection and related cloud coverage.

Aloft, the subtropical jet visible around 700 mb will shift westward into the Gulf of Mexico as the ridge builds in through the day on Saturday, displacing some of the support at the lower levels for more widespread convective enhancement. At the same time, the temperature and moisture gradient with the entering SAL (Saharan Air Layer) could provide an initiating boundary capable of providing for isolated strong storms and even an isolated severe, particularly if it comes coincident with peak heating around western and northern portions of South Florida where more ample moisture and the presence of a Gulf sea breeze could be additional factors. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts and excessive rainfall which could lead to localized flooding are the primary concerns with the strongest storms today, particularly across the Lake Okeechobee region and in Southwest Florida.

Convection will diminish on Saturday night with a dry slot potentially setting up overnight and into the morning hours on Sunday. The presence of the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) should enable much lower coverage of convection with the shower, and any thunderstorm, chances focused over Southwest Florida where slightly more ample moisture and a peripheral influence from the building ridge of high pressure allow for better rain chances. Temperatures both afternoons will climb into the lower to mid 90s across much of the area, particularly interior and west, with triple digit heat index values to match.

Long Term(Monday through Friday)... As the new work week kicks off, a weakness in the ridge will allow for a trough to push towards the eastern seaboard of the United States. This will pinch the high pressure back eastward into the Atlantic while closer to home the ridge will get focused right around the southern peninsula of Florida which will create some alternating between dry slots and moist, unsettled patches. The moist patch to start the week could give way to a dry slot Tuesday into Wednesday before moist air returns ahead of an approaching frontal boundary driven by low pressure over the Great Lakes to close out the week. This overall means typical diurnal summer time type convection for most of the week with scattered daily mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Upper 80s to mid 90s will continue over most afternoons with the easterly to southeasterly flow most nigheights providing for warm overnight temperatures as well in the mid to upper 70s along the east coast. Forecast confidence is moderate to high with little spread in the extended pattern with the global guidance.

Convection has diminished overnight with some sub-VFR cigs moving into portions of the east coast. Drier air today will shift the high TSRA chances north and west with PBI and APF having the higher chances of impacts. Conditions this afternoon could become gusty, particularly around convection. Short-fused AMDs may be necessary.

Marine
Moderate southeasterly flow will persist as the focus of the unsettled weather pattern shifts north and westward rest of the weekend. However, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible through early half of the week across the Gulf and Atlantic waters with winds and waves locally higher in and around storms. As high pressure builds northeast of the region this weekend, small craft exercise caution conditions (winds of 15-20 kts) at times will persist through the weekend and into at least early portions of the week across the local waters.

Fire Weather
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly across the interior and Lake Okeechobee region today with activity becoming less extensive by Sunday as aforementioned ridge of high pressure builds in through the weekend. Maximum dispersion values will remain in the very good range through the weekend and even excellent for portions of the west interior south and west of Lake Okeechobee. Minimum relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels throughout the forecast period.

BEACHES... The risk of rip currents across the Atlantic beaches will be high for the weekend and into early next week as a southeasterly wind flow increases. A Rip Current Statement for the high risk will be issued this morning and be in effect through the weekend and it might need to be extended into the week later on.

NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None. GM...None.