Marine Weather Net

Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, FL out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

THURSDAY

ENE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ670 Forecast Issued: 340 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
Today...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 30 Knots Along The Coast To North 20 To 30 Knots With Gusts To Around 40 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Along The Coast, Seas 7 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas To 11 Feet Building To 10 To 12 Feet With Occasional Seas To 15 Feet In The Afternoon. In The Gulf Stream, Seas 13 To 15 Feet With Occasional Seas To 19 Feet Building To 15 To 18 Feet With Occasional Seas To 22 Feet In The Afternoon. Period 10 Seconds. North Swell 4 To 9 Feet Increasing To 7 To 12 Feet In The Afternoon. Intracoastal Waters Rough. Showers Likely.
Tonight...Northeast Winds 10 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots Along The Coast To Northeast 15 To 25 Knots With Gusts To Around 30 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Along The Coast, Seas 10 To 12 Feet With Occasional Seas To 15 Feet. In The Gulf Stream, Seas 15 To 18 Feet With Occasional Seas To 22 Feet Subsiding To 12 To 14 Feet With Occasional Seas To 18 Feet After Midnight. Period 11 Seconds. North Swell 6 To 11 Feet Becoming North Northeast 4 To 9 Feet After Midnight. Intracoastal Waters Rough In Exposed Areas. Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Thursday...East Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Seas 9 To 11 Feet With Occasional Seas To 14 Feet Subsiding To 7 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas To 11 Feet In The Afternoon. Period 10 Seconds. North Northeast Swell 3 To 8 Feet Becoming 3 To 6 Feet In The Afternoon. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Thursday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Along The Coast To East Southeast 5 To 15 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas To 10 Feet. Period 10 Seconds. Northeast Swell 5 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers Through The Night.
Friday...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas To 8 Feet. North Northeast Swell 3 Feet In The Morning. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Friday Night...West Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.
Saturday...North Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. North Northeast Swell 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.
Sunday...North Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. North Northeast Swell 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop.
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AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm
340 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Strong northerly winds and swell will continue to produce hazardous marine conditions over all the local waters through tonight. Elevated seas and wind speeds will then gradually diminish late tomorrow through Friday as the surface low to our east slowly pushes further into the Atlantic.

Gulf Stream Hazards: Hazardous winds and seas will build through today, with elevated seas remaining through much of the week.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Jan 20, 2020 at 1200 UTC...
- 5 nautical miles southeast of Fowey Rocks.
- 7 nautical miles east northeast of Port Everglades.
- 5 nautical miles east northeast of Lake Worth.
- 10 nautical miles east southeast of Jupiter Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
951am EST Wednesday Jan 22 2020

South Florida woke up this morning to some of the coldest temperatures and wind chills we have seen in years. Low temps from this morning ranged from the low 30s to low 40s, with wind chills in the mid 20s to upper 30s. See earlier sent PNS for the detailed low temps and low wind chills across the region. Temperatures are slowly beginning to moderate with high temperatures later today in the low 60s across interior and Gulf coast to mid 60s along the east coast.

There is a meso-low that has developed just north of the Bahamas, with a cloud band on the southwest side that is well defined on visible satellite. As this band pushes through it will help bring a chance of showers for the east coast later today. The band will also allow for a continued push of breezy and at times gusty northerly winds. These winds will continue to bring hazardous marine and beach conditions to South Florida. No major changes to the current forecast, with only some slight adjustments to temperatures to account for observations this morning.

.Prev /issued 628am EST Wednesday Jan 22 2020/

Aviation... Generally VFR conditons throughout the period with breezy and at times gusty northerly winds veering to northeasterly by the end of the period.

Prev /issued 323am EST Wednesday Jan 22 2020/

Short Term
Today... Strong low pressure east of the Bahamas will continue to move slowly southward today. This will keep a tight pressure gradient over South Florida along with breezy to windy northerly wind flow. Wind gusts could get up into the 30 to 35 mph along the east coastal areas today. Therefore, a Wind Advisory will be issued for the east coastal areas of South Florida for today. The weather will also remain mostly dry today, except for the northeast areas where a few shower could work into this area during the afternoon hours.

Current temperatures early this morning have been running in the mid to upper 30s over the interior areas to the lower to mid 40s over the metro areas, except around 40 over metro Palm Beach County. The temperatures should continue to slowly fall through the early morning hours and should be near freezing over the western interior areas to mid to upper 30s over rest of the interior and west coast metro areas by sunrise today. The east coast metro areas should see lows around 40 over the metro areas of Palm Beach County to lower to mid 40s over Broward and Miami- Dade County, except for the far western areas of the east coast metro areas where temperatures should get down to the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

The winds will still be 5 to 10 mph over the interior and west coast metro areas to 10 to 20 mph over the east coast metro areas early this morning. This will allow for the wind chill readings to be in the mid to upper 20s over the western interior areas to lower to mid 30s over rest of the region early this morning. Therefore, the wind chill advisory remains in the effect until 9 AM EDT this morning.

Highs today will only struggle to get into the 60s over South Florida due to the breezy to windy northerly flow bringing in the colder air from the north.

Tonight through Thursday night... The strong low will move eastward into the Atlantic waters through Thursday. This will allow for the winds to become more easterly over South Florida as the pressure gradient relaxes. At the same time, showers should also develop over the Atlantic waters and work into the east coast metro areas before dissipate. Therefore, a slight chance of showers will be added for the east coast metro areas for tonight into Thursday night.

A warming trend will start tonight and continue into Thursday over South Florida with lows tonight in the 50s, except upper 40s west of Lake Okeechobee. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s with Thursday night lows in the 50s except 60s east coast metro areas.

Long Term... Friday through Wednesday... Flow swings more southerly on Friday, placing South Florida under a brief, warmer regime for the end of work week. The southerly component of the flow will aid in advecting additional moisture through atmospheric column, resulting in a slight chance of showers for the east coast and Atlantic waters to stick around through the early portions of the weekend. Aloft, mid-level ridging shifts eastward and phased long and shortwave troughing trigger cyclogenesis over the midwest with a cold front extending into the Gulf of Mexico. As the surface low deepens and continues northeastward, the frontal boundary will approach the region with a FROPA possible late Saturday into early Sunday. Convection may develop ahead or along the boundary, but the FROPA should cross with little fanfare as the upper level support is forecast to remain well north of the boundary.

Behind the front, winds veer out of the north and allow for another shot of cold air advection down the peninsula that will moderate temperatures a few degrees below average. Overnight, lows could dip into the mid to upper 40s across the northwestern interior and near 60 across the east coast each night through early next next week. Afternoon temperatures should only climb into the upper 60s to low 70s across South Florida.

One feature to keep an eye on for the early portions of next week is a surface low that looks to develop over the central Gulf of Mexico along the aforementioned boundary, which should be draped to our south. Global models continue to handle the trajectory of the associated moisture differently. The GFS allows a few showers to infiltrate, but keeps the bulk of precipitation to our south and west. However, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) pushes much of the moisture across northern portions of South Florida, resulting in a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms. Therefore, have taken a middle of the road approach by raising Probability of Precipitation across the peninsula and local waters. The outcome can certainly change as we get closer in time and thus, will continue to monitor over the next several days.

Marine... Windy northerly winds will continue to affect South Florida waters with gusts getting up to near Gale Force conditions today, except for frequent gusts getting into gale force conditions. The winds will then slowly decrease tonight and by Thursday afternoon be 10 to 15 knots from the northeast direction. Atlantic seas will be 11 to 15 feet today before slowly decreasing to 7 to 9 feet by Thursday afternoon. The Gulf seas will be at 4 to 7 feet today before slowly decreasing to 2 to 3 by Thursday.

Therefore, an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will continue for all of the local waters today, except for a Gale Warning for the Atlantic waters today. An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will then be in place for the Atlantic waters tonight.

Aviation... The winds will be northerly over the Taf sites today with speeds around 15 to 20 knots gusts up to 30 knots. The winds will then shift more northeast tonight with speeds decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. The weather should remain dry over most of the TAF sites today before some showers affect the east coast taf sites tonight. However, coverage is still to small to mention in the TAF sites at this time for tonight. The ceiling and vis should also remain in VFR conditons for all of the TAF sites.

Beach Forecast... A building northeast swell today through Friday in the Atlantic waters will allow for a High Risk of Rip Currents along the east coast beaches of South Florida. The breakers along the beaches of Palm Beach County will also be building to 7 to 8 feet today through Friday. Therefore, a High Surf Advisory has also been issued for the beaches of Palm Beach County through Friday evening.

NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1pm EST this afternoon through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

Wind Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

High Surf Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 7pm EST Thursday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for AMZ610-630.

Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

Gale Warning until 7pm EST this evening for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for GMZ656-657- 676.

Update...33/Kelly.