Straits of Florida from Craig Key to West End of Seven Mile Bridge out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...South To Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast To South. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...Southeast To South Winds Near 5 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Wave Detail: East To Southeast 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...East To Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: East 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...East Winds Near 5 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. |
| Saturday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Sunday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...East To Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Monday Night...East To Southeast Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Thunderstorms With A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Tuesday...East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday Night...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 215pm EDT Thu August 20 2026 Issued at 230am EDT Thu August 20 2026 After the past 3 consecutive KEY soundings in recent days sampled PWAT (Precipitable Water) values less than an inch, a rather remarkable feat considering the daily mean values this time of the year are closer to the 1.8- 1.9 inch range, there are finally some signs that atmospheric moisture is starting to recover. While the 20/00Z RAOB still only measured a PWAT (Precipitable Water) value of 1.21 inches, it is a notable improvement compared to the stretch of record dry sounding data in recent days. Latest Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis data shows a rather substantial moisture gradient is in place across the region with maximum PWAT (Precipitable Water) values around 2.4 inches in central FL and values ranging from 1.2-1.6 inches across the Florida Keys. The higher moisture values to the north of the area are associated with a weak upper low in the vicinity of the northeast Gulf and some of this moisture will gradually advect southward across the Florida Keys throughout the day, which will help to scour out any last remnants of the most recent SAL (Saharan Air Layer) event. Given a light and variable col flow pattern today with a split ridge setup and the uptick in moisture, there will finally be an introduction of Probability of Precipitation back to the forecast once again with higher rain chances generally north of the Island Chain in closer proximity to the upper low and any outflow boundaries that push into the area from seabreeze convection over south FL. In addition, some activity could also form via cloud line development but forecast soundings still show some inhibition to contend with so would expect overall coverage to be on the limited side. Friday may also feature another opportunity for cloud line development, but the col region will be a bit displaced to the west as low-level flow becomes more out of the SE so precipitation chances will be a bit lower despite a continued moistening trend. The aforementioned upper low will gradually weaken and become absorbed into an eastern US trough over the weekend. This trough gradually amplifies across the eastern CONUS throughout the weekend with its axis pushing across portions of the peninsula on Sunday. The trough will also drop a cold front across the northern Gulf Coast and Southeast US as it swings through with moisture pooling occurring in these areas ahead of the associated frontal boundary. As this occurs, surface high pressure in the central Gulf weakens and retreats westward, which will bring a more familiar summertime pattern back to the Florida Keys by late weekend and early next week with a more dominant southeasterly flow regime developing. As a result, atmospheric moisture values are anticipated to return to more typical values for this time of the year with daily Chance Probability of Precipitation returning as well, especially from Monday onwards through the remainder of the forecast period. In addition, there might be another wave of Saharan dust that spreads across the region late in the weekend, but early indications are that dust concentrations will decrease as it moves across Cuba and The Bahamas. Marine Issued at 1136am EDT Thu August 20 2026 Conditions will be favorable for waterspout formation through the early afternoon hours. Mariners are reminded a waterspout would most likely appear beneath a dark, flat bottom of a building cumulus line, just at the hint of rain. From synopsis, a split ridge across our waters with a nearby col will result in light and variable winds this afternoon. The split ridge pattern will remain in place through the end of the week and early in the weekend with a mostly light to gentle variable wind pattern. Winds will then increase and become more southeasterly for late weekend and into the new work week, with daily gentle to moderate breezes expected. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...None. |
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