Straits of Florida from Craig Key to West End of Seven Mile Bridge Out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Overnight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast To East 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...Northeast To East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas Subsiding To 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast To East 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Decreasing To Near 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast To East 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday And Tuesday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds Near 5 Knots. Seas Subsiding To 1 To 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday Night...North To Northeast Winds Near 5 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Thursday...Northwest To North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday Night...Northwest To North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Friday...Northwest To North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 911pm EST Sunday Nov 1 2026 .SHORT TERM... Issued at 822pm EST Sunday Nov 1 2026 Water vapor imagery highligheights a high amplitude trough-ridge- trough triplet across the CONUS this evening. The trough in the Gulf had a 70 knot jet streak dive into its base over the past 12-hours. All the derived upper level forcing fields (Die Vort, Pot Vort, and Die Div) suggest potent forcing over the eastern Gulf and Florida. Low level streamline analyses place the Keys in weak speed convergence with very little anticyclonic or cyclonic curvature. Current radar imagery highligheights much less coverage across the Keys compared to this morning, and also across Florida compared to this afternoon. However, the occasional boundary interaction continues to be successful. The 00Z KKEY RAOB (Radiosonde Observation or Upper-Air Observation) sampled moderate ML CAPE and weak inhibition, coupled with a relatively disheveled vertical wind profile. The forecast for the next 24-hour will feature likely rain and thunderstorm chances through Monday afternoon. Low level streamlines will become more confluent and cyclonic by sunrise on Monday, and with the decreased heigheights aloft and upper level support, the advertised rain chances (80% tonight, 70% Monday) appear appropriate. Overnight lows will fall into the mid 70s, and breezes will be slightly enhanced across our eastern waters where a SCEC remains in effect. No changes are needed with this forecast cycle. Issued at 1255pm EST Sunday Nov 1 2026 The sun rose on a much more active day than expected for the Florida Keys. Widespread showers and thunderstorms were able to develop across the western half of the Florida Keys. Peak rainfall totals were observed between eastern Key West and Big Coppitt Key. Accumulation totals between 2 and 5 inches of accumulation were estimated based on MRMS and unofficial rain gauges across the Lower Keys. The atmosphere ended up being too saturated to observe hazardous wind gusts. Advected Layer PWAT (Precipitable Water) satellite estimates showed deep plumes of moisture from the surface through 500 mb across the Keys. Point being, a lot of moisture existed in the environment. The atmosphere finally stabilized over the Lower Keys by noon. Showers and thunderstorms will still be able to wax and wane from the Towers to the Middle and Upper Keys, but deep convective thunderstorms are less likely this afternoon. What was going on this morning, and why did we observe such heavy rainfall across the Lower Keys? Deep layer ridging set up over the eastern United States. The surface high associated with this ridge set up over New England. In the meantime, a shortwave trough set up over the northeastern Gulf. The trough was able to weaken the pressure gradient across southern Florida just enough to slacken the breezes across the Florida Keys. Breezes were also able to veer slightly to the southeast, and the combination of wind speed convergence and directional confluence was sufficient to sustain vigorous thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the upper altitude trough provided a source of upper altitude divergence to further fuel convection. What happens tonight and tomorrow? The shortwave trough is stuck in a region of broad upper level ridging and will not be able to move east quickly. Upper altitude dynamics are likely to remain over the Keys through tomorrow at the latest. The problem is that the US High will move further into the Atlantic. The pressure gradient is expected to continue to weaken across the Keys, suggesting the wind speed convergence will become less focused. Breezes will be stronger on the northern end of the CWA, which suggests shower coverage will be higher closer to south Florida. More rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible for the island chain and the nearshore waters. Weather conditions are expected to calm down quite a bit after Monday for the Florida Keys. Eastward movement of the Atlantic High and a pronounced trough over the central United States will act to direct most of the energy from the Gulf into the eastern US. The upper level trough will linger, but without a broad source of lift, breezes are expected to slacken to light to gentle by mid-week. Late in the week, model ensembles suggest a frontal boundary associated with the central United States trough will pass across the Florida Keys. The problem is that right now, models do not show consensus on where and when the front will move across the island chain. One group of model ensembles suggests dew points could drop into the mid 60s, while another does not lower dew points below near 70. We will keep monitoring this feature. While this forecaster would appreciate dew points lowering into the 60s, that is not a guarantee, and check back later in the week for more updates! Marine Issued at 822pm EST Sunday Nov 1 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across eastern portions of Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits. Elevated northerly swell will persist through Tuesday for the waters southeast of the Upper Keys. Broad wind convergence across the marine zones will keep shower and thunderstorm chances high through Tuesday. Expect slackening breezes and drier air during the middle of the week for all marine zones. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5am EST Monday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. |
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