Marine Weather Net

Straits of Florida from Craig Key to West End of Seven Mile Bridge Out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

E
WINDS
15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SATURDAY

ESE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SATURDAY NIGHT

SSW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ053 Forecast Issued: 436 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

Today...East Winds Near 15 Knots, Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet.
Tonight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Isolated Showers.
Saturday...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Isolated Showers.
Saturday Night...South To Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Isolated Showers.
Sunday...West Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Isolated Showers.
Sunday Night...West Winds Near 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest To North And Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Building To 2 To 3 Feet. Scattered Showers.
Monday...North To Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northeast And Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Subsiding To 1 To 2 Feet. Isolated Showers.
Monday Night...Northeast To East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Isolated Showers.
Tuesday...East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet.
Tuesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
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Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005
436 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

High pressure will elongate into an east-west ridge axis over North Florida today. The ridge axis will settle down the peninsula and reach South Florida on Saturday. The next cold front will limp through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys Sunday and Sunday night, with winds shifting from northwest back to northeast again by late Monday.

Gulf Stream
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of November 21...
- 69 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
- 43 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
- 41 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
- 20 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
- 13 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
- 9 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
- 6 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
- 2 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
509am EST Fri Nov 22 2019

Temperatures are in the lower 70s this morning along the island chain with dew points in the mid 60s. Winds have continued their slow veering towards the east, allowing slightly warmer conditions this morning then the past couple of mornings. Winds are not quite as strong as well, owing to the lack of cold air drainage from the mainland. A fair amount of strato-cu is being detect by GOES-East infrared imagery this morning, mostly concentrated in the Florida Straits where the most efficient air mass modification is occurring. Key West radar is mostly echo-free, with one legitimate shower detected near a plume of chaff. Interestingly the radar also shows a quasi-stationary boundary near the edge of the reef off of the Lower Keys. This appears to be where northeasterlies north of the reef are meeting easterlies in the Straits.

Concerning the forecast, another dry day is on tap with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies along the island chain. A warming trend will commence this weekend as winds clock around towards the east today, the southeast tomorrow, and finally the southwest on Sunday. This will allow air parcels to transport more humid air into the Florida Keys from the warm waters of the Straits, bringing dew points up to near 70 degrees by Saturday night. Rain chances will also increase as a result, but still anticipate shower activity to remain mainly isolated with no chances for thunderstorms due to a tremendous lack of instability and lift. By Sunday night a weak cold front will move through the area, dipping dew points down to near 60 degrees for a fairly short period (Sunday night through Tuesday morning). The front will have less of an impact on temperatures, with only the Upper Keys getting a good chance at seeing the 60s due to cold air drainage from the mainland. Following the front Probability of Precipitation will collapse again to less than 10% as dry air and subsidence aloft regain the foothold. In fact substantial mid-level ridging looks to rapidly build overhead by Wednesday. Comparing forecast ensemble mean 500mb height values to the CFSR 1979-2009 climatology yields a maximum value for this date, well above the top 10th percentile in the database. This will translate to well above average temperatures, perhaps challenging record highs on Wednesday. Models do indicate the potential for a 'back door' cold front to end the work week, which may allow for slightly drier air to work its way into the Keys just in time for Thanksgiving. Stay tuned.

Marine
No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Gentle to moderate breezes will characterize most of the forecast period, with a gradual clocking around of the winds this weekend as the next cold front approaches on Sunday. Winds overall will be rather lackluster with the passage of the front, with Sunday night seeing the best chance of a brief freshening northerly wind surge. Thereafter winds look to slacken as they become northeast to east to start the week.

Climate
On this date in 1882, the daily record cold high temperature of 65 degrees was recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GM...None.