Hawk Channel from Craig Key to West End of Seven Mile Bridge Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Early, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 5 Feet After Midnight. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop, Becoming Choppy. Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...East To Southeast Winds Decreasing To Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Nearshore Waters Becoming A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...East To Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...East To Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...East Winds Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...East To Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds Decreasing To Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Becoming A Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...East To Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...Variable Winds Near 5 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Nearshore Waters Smooth. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...Winds Becoming Northeast And Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Nearshore Waters Becoming Smooth To A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005|
441 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020
Tropical Storm Zeta will move slowly northwestward, passing through the Yucatan Channel on Monday. Then an Atlantic ridge axis will build westward across the Florida Peninsula from Tuesday through Thursday, bringing an easing of southeast breezes.
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of October 24...
- 25 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
- 35 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
- 41 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
- 41 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
- 39 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
- 20 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
- 14 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
- 10 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Key West FL
404pm EDT Sunday Oct 25 2020
Unfortunately, or fortunately for some, rain has yet to materialize for the Florida Keys. Showers and thunderstorms have however, been ongoing across the southeast Gulf waters and now the far eastern Florida Straits. The showers over the southeast Gulf are due to speed convergence as faster winds are moving across the Florida Straits and into the southeast Gulf where wind speeds are slower. Activity over these waters has been ongoing for hours and shows no signs of letting up. Meanwhile, looking south BYX radar shows that showers and thunderstorms are developing over Cuba and beginning to race northward.
Outside of showers, skies have been partly to mostly cloudy for the island chain. This has kept temperatures down in the mid 80s. A southeast wind has kept moisture locked in across the area and as such, dew points have been in the mid 70s, making it quite muggy.
Looking at the tropics, Zeta has not moved from its position south of Cuba. Likewise its strength remains the same at 40 mph.
Short Term - Tonight Through Tuesday Night
Zeta should begin moving northwest this evening. As it does so, rain chances will increase tonight. As Zeta continues its northwest trek and moves away from our area, moisture will slowly wane into Monday and Monday night. That being said, rain chances will remain above normal until ridging pushes in from the northeast and east on Tuesday. It should be noted that this is also dependent on the ultimate track of Zeta. Should it take longer to make its jaunt to the northwest, the track could slide slightly further east and therefore allow for moisture to linger a little longer. For now, holding on with a more westward track and lower probability of precipitation for Tuesday.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through next Sunday)... By Wednesday, ridge axis will establish across the Florida Peninsula and reside just to our north for the extended period. This will help to suppress rain chances through Friday with near normal probability of precipitation expected. Thereafter we'll wait with bated breath to see if the next front actually makes it way to our neck of the woods. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFS differ on strength but both models line up with a late Friday arrival and a slight uptick on rain chances.
Currently seeing gentle to moderate southeast breezes across all of our waters. Breezes are expected to freshen tonight as Zeta begins to move northwest. As such Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for increasing winds. There is a chance for Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria winds to develop across portions of our waters. The exception looks to be over the Florida Straits, where SCA (Small Craft Advisory) looks likely. For now will hold off issuing SCA (Small Craft Advisory) and will defer to the next forecast cycle. Fresh to strong breezes will continue for Monday and Monday night, especially over the Florida Straits. Thereafter winds will begin easing starting Tuesday and continue to slacken through Thursday. A potential front could move in late Friday with freshening northeast breezes.
In 1903, the daily record cold high temperature of 70F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the coldest high temperature ever recorded in October. Temperature records date back to 1872.
NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories