Hawk Channel from Craig Key to West End of Seven Mile Bridge Marine Forecast
| Today...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Early, Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet, Except 2 To 3 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop, Becoming Smooth To A Light Chop. Isolated Showers. |
| Tonight...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. Isolated Showers. |
| Sunday...North To Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest To North 20 To 25 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas Around 1 Foot, Building To 2 To 3 Feet. West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light, Seas 1 To 2 Feet, Building To 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop, Becoming Very Rough. Scattered Showers. |
| Sunday Night...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light, Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet, Building To 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Nearshore Waters Very Rough. Isolated Showers. |
| Monday...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Becoming North To Northeast 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Except 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Very Rough, Becoming Choppy. |
| Monday Night...North To Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Increasing To Near 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Except 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Choppy, Becoming Rough. |
| Tuesday...North To Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Except 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Very Rough. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet, Except 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Very Rough. |
| Wednesday...Northeast To East Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet, Except 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Very Rough. Isolated Showers. |
| Wednesday Night...Northeast To East Winds Near 20 Knots, Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Nearshore Waters Rough, Becoming Choppy. Isolated Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 428am EST Sat Jan 17 2026 Issued at 428am EST Sat Jan 17 2026 CIMSS products shows a deep upper level mean layer trough across the eastern United States early this morning. To its south, upper level ridging is trying to nudge its way northwestward which is helping to resharpen the trough that is already in place. Deep mean layer ridging continues west of this trough across the West Coast with the ridge nudging north into western Canada. The pattern across much of North America remains highly amplified (meridional). At the surface, high pressure remains over the western North Atlantic with the southwestern side of this ridge nudging through Florida and into the eastern Gulf. This is leading to marine observations platforms surrounding the Island Chain observing northeast to east breezes of 10 to 15 knots. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) looks very different again compared to 24 hours ago. Moisture is beginning to increase in earnest across the area early this morning with estimated PWAT (Precipitable Water) values ranging from 0.6 inches to 0.9 inches throughout the Keys. Since the air is still relatively dry, KBYX radar is not detecting any shower activity. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows mainly mid level clouds across the Keys as this is where the moisture increase has been. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 60s with near 70 degrees in the far Upper Keys and dew points are in the mid to upper 50s. .FORECAST... High pressure will continue to loosen its grip across Florida as it continues moving farther out into the North Atlantic. This will result in the gradient continuing to weaken with the Keys ending up in a col region for tonight. A col region is usually when an area is in between the significant weather systems. This will lead to continued slackening breezes through early Sunday morning. Slight moisture return in the low to mid levels will run the risk for an isolated shower or sprinkle across the Island Chain today and tonight. Therefore, slight chances (10% today and 20% tonight) are forecast. Temperatures will rebound quite nicely today into the lower to mid 70s with dew points also continuing to climb. Numerical and global guidance is all on board for another strong cold front to press through the Keys sometime late Sunday/Sunday evening. This will result in another shot of cooler air, breezy to windy conditions, and a dip in humidity. Moisture is expected to continue increasing ahead of the front resulting in chances of showers for Sunday. In the wake of this front, a rather large high pressure system is expected to move across the eastern United States. This will keep the breezes elevated for much of the week. Moisture will remain scarce with most of the shower activity, if any, remaining across the Straits, at least initially. Once we approach mid week, the moisture is expected to creep northward bringing slight chances back into the forecast along the Island Chain. Temperatures and dew points will also slowly moderate through the week. Expect temperatures to be back to slightly above normal to above normal by late in the week. Marine Issued at 428am EST Sat Jan 17 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure centered over the western North Atlantic will slowly loosen its grip across Florida today. This will support rapidly slackening breezes. The next cold front is forecast to push through the Florida Keys coastal waters on Sunday or Sunday night, with fresh to strong, (potentially near gale (SE Gulf)) northerly breezes in its wake for early to the middle part of next week. An expansive high pressure system will then move across the eastern United States in its wake. This will continue to promote to fresh to strong breezes through the week. Climate On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1983, the daily record low temperature of 53F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...None. |
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