Marine Weather Net

Hawk Channel from Craig Key to West End of Seven Mile Bridge Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

ESE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

FRIDAY

E
WINDS
10
KNOTS

FRIDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SATURDAY

E
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ043 Forecast Issued: 429 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2020

Tonight...East To Southeast Winds Near 5 Knots, Becoming East And Increasing To Near 10 Knots Late This Evening. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth, Becoming A Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.
Friday...East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday...East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday...East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday...East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday...East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.
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Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005
429 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

An Atlantic ridge axis will persist across the Florida Peninsula well into next week. Light and gentle easterly breezes will become gentle to moderate from Friday evening through Tuesday.

Gulf Stream
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of August 6...
- 54 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
- 28 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
- 18 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
- 15 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
- 14 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
- 12 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
- 8 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
- 6 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
351pm EDT Thu August 6 2020

The next 7 days as a whole will feature near-normal and routine mid-summer weather. Rain chances will not vary more than about 10 percent from the August climatology value of 30 percent at Key West (a bit higher up the Keys). No tropical cyclone development is expected.

Short Term
(Through Sunday night)

The 12z balloon soundings this morning from both KEY and MFL showed substantial drying of the mid-level air mass over the previous 12 hours. For the Keys, this has suppressed convective activity today, though some convective activity is bubbling up over the eastern Straits now. This activity could bring localized rain to a few spots across the Keys late this afternoon and early this evening.

In the big picture, MIMIC PW imagery shows a large region of dry mid-level air currently making its way westward past Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the southeast Bahamas. The northern edge of this drier air will pass by the Keys on Friday and Friday night, leading to a somewhat suppressed convective outlook until Saturday.

Though that dry air mass will exit on Saturday, there is still plenty of less consolidated dry air upstream across the Atlantic. Mid-level heigheights and surface pressures with the subtropical high ridge axis across the FL Peninsula will peak on Saturday and Saturday night, indicating a continuation of larger scale subsidence. Then on Sunday, another more consolidated dry mid- level air mass will spread into the Keys, with GEFS ensemble plumes showing the driest PW values (Precipitable Water values) of the 7-day forecast on Sunday night.

The main message is that rain chances from now through Sunday night will average a little below normal, though a couple of periods such as Friday and Sunday night could very well get shut down in terms of convective coverage.

Long Term
(Monday through next Thursday)

The official forecast reflects slightly below-climo rain chances through Wednesday. During this time, the subtropical ridge axis will be just to our north, and PW values (Precipitable Water values) will run a little below the climatological moving average.

Rain chances start to climb back to near normal next Thursday. The speed or strength of easterly flow will start to pick up modestly as pressures over the Caribbean Sea start to slowly lower. Stronger easterly flow tends to deepen surface-based moisture. This is reflected in the GEFS ensemble plumes, which show PW values (Precipitable Water values) rising back to near or slightly moister than normal on Day 7.

Marine
No headlines or highligheights are anticipated through at least Tuesday night.

An Atlantic ridge axis will persist across the Florida Peninsula well into next week. Light and gentle easterly breezes will become gentle to moderate from Friday evening through Tuesday.

NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GM...None.