Marine Weather Net

Hawk Channel from Craig Key to West End of Seven Mile Bridge Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

VARIABLE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THURSDAY


The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ043 Forecast Issued: 416 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

Tonight...Variable Winds Near 5 Knots, Becoming North And Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Building To 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth, Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers.
Wednesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Decreasing To Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy, Becoming A Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers.
Wednesday Night...Northeast To East Winds Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas Building To 2 To 4 Feet. Nearshore Waters Becoming Choppy. Scattered Showers.
Thursday...East Winds Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers.
Thursday Night...Southeast To South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday...Southwest To West Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Northwest To North Winds Near 10 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet, Building To 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop, Becoming Choppy. Scattered Showers.
Saturday...Northwest To North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy. Isolated Showers.
Saturday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy. Isolated Showers.
Sunday...North Winds Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers.
Sunday Night...North To Northeast Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Showers.
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Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005
416 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

A cold front will push southeast through the Gulf of Mexico tonight, then stall near, or just south of the Florida Keys Wednesday, resulting in another round of freshening north to northeast breezes. The wind surge behind the front will be short- lived as breezes will diminish Thursday through Friday. A second cold front is likely by Friday night or Saturday. Fresh to strong northerly breezes are expected by Saturday or Saturday night.

Gulf Stream
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of November 11...
- 62 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
- 42 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
- 30 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
- 25 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
- 13 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
- 11 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
- 9 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
- 5 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
327pm EST Tuesday Nov 12 2019

Water vapor imagery highligheights mean-layer ridging stretching from Central America to the Bahamas. A long wave trough axis pivoting east through the Mississippi River Valley is driving a sharp cold front southeast through the Gulf of Mexico. Mean layer streamlines are nearly parallel to the frontal axis, which means the front's forward movement is relying mostly on pure momentum from the dense and shallow polar air mass (see this morning's 12Z KLIX RAOB). Gulf marine stations behind the front continue to gust between 30 and 40 knots. Locally, east to southeast breezes have diminished to 5 knots or less. Skies are mostly cloudy and the KBYX radar is nearly echo free.

.FORECAST... Forecast reasoning has not changed appreciably this cycle. Two frontal passages are expected over the next seven days, late tonight or Wednesday morning, followed by a more vigorous front by Friday night or Saturday. Between the fronts, a sloppy and weak surface gradient, in conjunction with increasing low-level moisture, weak mid-upper level lift, and favorable venting aloft, will result in above normal rain chances (30-45%) Wednesday night through Friday night. In fact, weak low-level cyclonic curvature will provide convergence along the second front. We have retained slight thunder chances Thursday night and Friday, and we have not fallen for the inflated Probability of Precipitation Friday and Friday night, noting that high PW usually confounds the models' expectations for rain chances. Complicating the forecast is the possibility of the first front stalling near the Keys, and also the progressive nature of the pattern. Breezes will freshen and diminish quickly, twice through the forecast period. Slight differences in timing will result in large errors in the derived forecast. Nevertheless, we have tried to blend the differences in timing. There remains a 12-18 hr difference in frontal arrival timing for the first front. We will stick with the best performer from the front several days ago, leaning towards a Friday night/ Saturday morning arrival. On the whole, the inherited forecast is in line with our thoughts.

Marine
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds tonight across the deeper waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico due to north to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. From synopsis, a cold front will push southeast through the Gulf of Mexico tonight, then stall near, or just south of the Florida Keys Wednesday, resulting in another round of freshening north to northeast breezes. The wind surge behind the front will be short- lived as breezes will diminish Thursday through Friday. A second cold front is likely by Friday night or Saturday. Fresh to strong northerly breezes are expected by Saturday or Saturday night.

NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GM...None.