Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of This Afternoon...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt... Becoming Sw With Gusts To 25 Kt Late. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233pm EDT Sunday Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is potential for two rounds of thunderstorms during Monday afternoon and evening, with the first most likely to produce severe weather. This raises confidence that there could be a few instances of urban and poor drainage flooding. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms along with locally heavy rainfall possible on Monday. - 2) After a mid week dry spell, daily thunderstorm chances will return for the end of the week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms along with locally heavy rainfall possible on Monday. A low pressure system is forecast to track from the Ohio River Valley northeast on Monday with the associated warm front lifting north across the region throughout the day. This will bring the next chance of severe weather to the region, with the Storm Prediction Center having most of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe weather. There still remains a good bit of uncertainty regarding timing and severity of storms, given the model guidance discrepancy in the track of the low pressure system and associated fronts. With southerly flow, a warm and moist airmass is expected leading to adequate instability. Additionally, a low level jet is expected to pivot over the forecast area leading to 40-50 knots of bulk shear. The combination of instability and shear leads to a risk of organized supercells with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. Depending on the position of the warm front in the afternoon, there is an increased risk of isolated tornadoes for most of the forecast area, but in particular wherever the warm front sets up. While storm motion is expected to be progressive, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) nearing and/or exceeding 2 inches will lead to locally heavy rainfall within the strongest storms. In addition, many models are showing the potential for two rounds of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The Weather Prediction Center as most of the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall with scattered instances of flooding possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...After a mid week dry spell, daily thunderstorm chances will return for the end of the week. There is still some uncertainty where the cold front will be Tuesday and whether there are any linger showers or perhaps a thunderstorm as the mid level trough axis moves through. These chances are slightly higher for the southern half of the CWA, but many locations could remain dry. Temperatures will dip back slightly below seasonal averages into the upper 70s to mid 80s. High pressure will move across the area Wednesday, resulting in the most pleasant day of the week. Temperatures will be near or slightly normal with relatively low dew points in the 50s and mostly sunny skies. A slow moving upper level trough/closed low and broad surface low pressure will slowly lift through the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. While temperatures may not rise appreciably, there will be a return to muggier dew points. Specific forcing may be nebulous on Thursday especially, but locations west of the Blue Ridge will have greater instability and be closer to the upper trough, so these locations may have the highest chance of thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will encompass the entire area Friday as the surface cold front drops closer to the area. Some shear will be present, but instability may be limited, so the severe weather threat is uncertain at this time (supported by low ML guidance probs). Forecast uncertainty increases for next weekend as the frontal zone will behave like a typical weak summer front that may not entirely clear the area and only have minimal airmass differences across it. Saturday could be relatively drier as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes. However, the stalled front and potential for ripples in the quasi-zonal flow aloft could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day in a warm and humid airmass. Marine Light winds are expected today and through the overnight. Winds shift to southerly on Monday with a Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9AM to 6PM. Advisories will likely be needed on Tuesday as northwest winds gust 15 to 20 knots. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms are expected across the waters Monday afternoon and evening with SMWs likely needed. Northwest winds behind a cold front may result in marginal advisory conditions on Tuesday. Light winds are expected Wednesday under high pressure. Small Craft Advisories may be needed Thursday afternoon into Thursday night in southerly flow. The next upper level disturbance could bring more thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6pm EDT Monday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6pm EDT Monday for ANZ530- 535>538-542. Small Craft Advisory from 9am to 6pm EDT Monday for ANZ531>534-539>541-543. |
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