Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sun...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sun Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 228pm EDT Sat May 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes were made to the forecast. We continue to monitor showers and thunderstorms as they track into the forecast area this afternoon and evening. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A more organized threat for severe thunderstorms Wednesday along a strong cold front. Turning much cooler by late week. - 2) Hot temperatures and daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue daily through Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 1...A more organized threat for severe thunderstorms Wednesday along a strong cold front. Turning much cooler by late week. Amplified mid-latitude flow continues across the country as a sprawling upper ridge remains across the eastern U.S. down into the Gulf of America. Looking upstream, a series of shortwaves are slated to track toward the east and northeast in time. This eventually flattens the northern extent of this ridge which sets the stages for a pattern change. A much cooler pattern ensues for the latter portions of next week. Looking a bit more closely at the mid-week system, the stronger height falls and wind fields may stay off to the north across New England. Meanwhile, models do show an uptick in low-level moisture as dew points rise into the upper 50s to low 60s. This occurs in concert with the development of a lee trough. Ample heating that carries high temperatures into the low/mid 90s should be enough to yield to destabilization of the atmosphere. While showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur given forcing from the trough and low-level convergence along the lee trough, the severe component is more an unknown. If the stronger wind fields with the trough to the north near the local area, a more discernible severe threat may emerge. As the associated cold front exits the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday morning, a much cooler air mass ensues for late in the week. This comes with an unsettled weather pattern as high pressure builds to the north and additional disturbances track overhead in the southwesterly flow. Given the anticyclone center across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario, a persistent low-level north to northeasterly wind is expected. This comes with plenty of clouds and daily high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s (50s to low 60s across the mountains). KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot temperatures and daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday. Surface high pressure shifts offshore through early next week as a cold front remain stalled to our northwest. Upper level ridging building overhead combined with southerly flow at the surface from high pressure yields above average temperatures through Tuesday. High temperatures today will be in the 80s with high elevations staying in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms approaching from the west will track east across the area this afternoon. The best chance for any thunder is west of the Blue Ridge as showers weaken as they track east. By Monday, highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s for most with Tuesday being the warmest day of the period. Heat indices are forecast to remain below heat headline criteria across the area although may approach the upper 90s. In addition to hot temperatures, daily showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly west of the Blue Ridge. The threat for severe weather remains low due to a lacking forcing mechanism. Marine A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the southern portions of the tidal Potomac and the Chesapeake Bay until 11PM this evening. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots are expected. Rain showers cross the waters this evening and overnight, although no hazardous marine conditions are expected at this time. South winds diminish overnight and are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through Monday morning. Winds increase slightly in the afternoon, nearing advisory criteria with additional SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) possible. An uptick in southerly flow may lead to some channeling effects on Tuesday afternoon into the night, especially over the wider waters of the Chesapeake Bay. This would support Small Craft Advisory issuances. However, vertical mixing may be limited at times given how warm the air is versus the colder waters beneath. Winds eventually decrease into much of Wednesday although this comes with a risk of convection. Showers and thunderstorms become more widespread as a cold front nears from the west. Special Marine Warnings may be needed as this convection rolls through on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Behind the cold front, Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed as northwesterlies begin to increase. Climate Here are some daily temperature records during the May 18-20, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***MONDAY, MAY 18TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1877) 72F (2015) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (1987)! 68F (2015)! Baltimore (BWI) 97F (1962) 70F (2017) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 75F (2017) Martinsburg (MRB) 96F (1911) 66F (2015)! Charlottesville (CHO) 95F (1962)+ 73F (1911) Annapolis (NAK) 95F (1962)+ 69F (1953)+! Hagerstown (HGR) 93F (1962) 71F (2017) ***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1997)+ 72F (2015)! Washington-Dulles (IAD) 92F (1997)+! 66F (2017)+! Baltimore (BWI) 98F (1962) 75F (1877) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F (1962) 78F (1962) Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1911) 69F (1996)! Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (1962) 72F (1997) Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1962) 71F (1911)! Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 69F (2017)+! ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019) Baltimore (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+ Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+ Martinsburg (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998) Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996) Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898) Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998) NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for ANZ530>534-537>543. |
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