Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of This Afternoon...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Numerous Showers And Scattered Tstms. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Widespread Showers And Scattered Tstms. |
| Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 324pm EDT Wednesday April 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe thunderstorm coverage for this afternoon remains uncertain due to dry air and capping aloft. .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will enter the area tonight and waver near or just north of the area Thursday through Saturday resulting in warm conditions and daily shower and thunderstorm chances. - A strong cold front passing through the region on Sunday could bring widespread rainfall and a drop in temperatures by early next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will enter the area tonight and waver near or just north of the area Thursday through Saturday resulting in warm conditions and daily shower and thunderstorm chances. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Watching several clusters of thunderstorms over western areas as they move slowly east. NUCAPS data from 1751Z showed a CAPE ridge axis from Lynchburg west and another one south of Fredericksburg VA. Recent visible trends show cumulus field getting squashed across northern areas due to westerly flow. ACARS and NUCAPS soundings also showed dry air aloft between 700-600 mb and weak capping aloft. Surface dewpoints are only in the mid 50s. All of these factors suggest that any severe threat would be isolated. Backdoor front will enter the area after 00Z tonight triggering more showers across northern areas and bringing in low ceilings. The front will get hunged up across the area Thursday. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms may ride along and north of the front tomorrow. Moisture is deeper tomorrow, but mid-level flow is weaker which may hinder storm organization and severe weather threat. The front will weaken and lift north of the front Fri limiting thunderstorm coverage, mainly to the Appalachian region. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front passing through the region on Sunday could bring widespread rainfall and a drop in temperatures by early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Not too much has changed in the model outlook concerning Sunday's frontal system. The GFS (Global Forecast System) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) are still well aligned on a significant upper trough moving through the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region this week culminating in a strong cold front moving across the East Coast on Sunday. The most likely impacts to the Mid Atlantic from this are widespread rainfall throughout the region (several tenths of an inch) as well as a sharp drop in temperatures, with potentially a 15-20 degree drop overall in temperatures. The thunderstorm risk is still extremely marginal at this time. NCAR's Medium Range AI Convective Hazards outlook still shows a chance of thunderstorms associated with this front, although it's 15%-30% probability has shifted slightly south since yesterday. Thunderstorms are still something to look out for over the next couple of days, but the primary impacts still remain widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures as the front tracks eastward. Marine SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely Thu night through Sunday as southerly flow strengthens and warm front lifts north. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely on Sunday as a strong cold front moves through the region. Widespread rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible, with winds shifting northwesterly by Monday in the wake of the front. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions may still be necessary on Monday, but should gradually decrease as the day progresses. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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