Marine Weather Net

Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

S
WINDS
15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ536 Forecast Issued: 1034 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
Rest Of Today...S Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Scattered Showers With Isolated Tstms Late This Morning, Then Numerous Showers And Scattered Tstms This Afternoon With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt... Becoming W Late. Waves 1 Ft.
Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Wed Night...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.
Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Fri...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1002am EDT Monday May 27 2024

Synopsis
A warm and humid air mass will persist through today. A cold front will push through the area tonight. A secondary cold front moves in by mid-week before high pressure builds in by Friday.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 945 AM, rain showers are moving northeast across the area along and west of the Blue Ridge with some isolated shower activity in NE Maryland. Shower and thunderstorm activity to the south of the forecast area has been weakening as it moves through the area, likely due to residual cloud cover and cooler temperatures from overnight rain showers. Looking at recent visible satellite, mostly cloudy skies can be seen across much of the forecast area with a thin layer of high level clouds along and east of I-95. How cloud cover evolves this morning and into the early afternoon will play a role in the amount of instability and how much the atmosphere recovers for afternoon and evening convection.

Previous Discussion Follows: Some notable changes were observed in the latest guidance early this morning and it is mainly to delay convective initiation this afternoon and push back the timing of the frontal passage until mid evening. The severe risk also has shifted more east to areas along and east of I-95 and east of Rt 15 in northern MD. Latest CAMs this morning show several broken short line segments including bows developing across the northern neck of VA lifting NE into southern MD. Other short line segments are seeing on the reflectivity products over north central MD into southern PA. The primary threat remains damaging winds due to strengthening wind fields and moderate instability (~1500 J/kg), but a couple of tornadoes and isolated large hail are also possible. Severe risk should diminish quickly after 00Z and be over completely by 02Z Tue.

Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night
Scattered to numerous instability showers are expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as additional shortwave energy rounding the base of the upper trough axis moves across the region. Shower activity on Tuesday may not produce any lightning at all, but has better chance of generating lightning on Wednesday due to higher CAPE values and steeper mid-level lapse rates/cooler temps aloft.

Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
Deep upper troughing will move overhead during the day Thursday. Skies should start out mostly sunny, but some fair weather clouds may form in response to daytime heating during the afternoon. A few sprinkles or a brief light shower can't be ruled out either, but most locations should remain dry. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the upper 60s to mid 70s, with dewpoints only in the mid 40s.

We'll remain under the influence of upper troughing through the day Friday, but the trough axis will start to progress off to our east during the afternoon hours. This will result in another day of below normal temperatures within northwesterly flow. Sunny skies are expected, with high temperatures generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes Friday night. With clear skies, light to calm winds, and dewpoints only in the low to mid 40s, it will be a chilly first night of June, with low temperatures dropping back into the 40s to near 50 for most.

Narrow upper ridging will build overhead next weekend, before the flow flattens out and turns more zonal in nature early next week. High pressure at the surface will move overhead Saturday morning, before progressing offshore later Saturday into Sunday. As this happens, a slight warming trend in temperatures will occur. Highs on Saturday are expected to reach into the mid-upper 70s, with upper 70s to lower 80s in the forecast for Sunday. Conditions are expected to remain predominantly dry this upcoming weekend, but a stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out on Sunday.

Marine
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected today through tonight due to gradient winds. Special Marine Warnings are also likely to be required for thunderstorm winds greater than 33 kt.

Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) northwesterly winds are expected on both Thursday and Friday.

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Tides / Coastal Flooding
With increasing south/southeast flow, there will be a higher chance of minor flooding with this morning's high tide. Straits Point, Annapolis, and DC SW Waterfront will be most susceptible. Westerly winds behind a cold front will lead to decreasing anomalies through the middle of the week.

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1pm EDT this afternoon for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1pm EDT this afternoon for MDZ014. VA...None. WV...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ530- 535-536-538. Small Craft Advisory from 11am to 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ530- 531-539. Small Craft Advisory until 3am EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>534-537- 539>543.