Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Se Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 800pm EST Sat Nov 8 2025 Synopsis A weak cold front tracks across the forecast area this evening before lifting northward as a warm front Sunday morning. A stronger cold front pushes through the forecast area Sunday night bringing mountain snow showers and much colder temperatures. High pressure builds to the south Monday and Tuesday before another weak front tracks over the area on Wednesday. High pressure returns for the end of the week and into the weekend. Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning Latest surface analysis depicts a subtle cold front lurking just north of the Mason-Dixon line. This front is marked by not much more than a wind shift. It will drop south and dissipate, then redevelop overhead early Sunday as a warm front. Overnight low temperatures drop into the 40s for many areas, with lower 50s near/east of I-95. Precipitation chances increase by early Sunday morning from south to north due to warm air advection. Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Monday Night The short term period is split in two with a potent cold front pushing through the forecast area Sunday night. Ahead of the front, warm air advection will yield light precipitation, mainly east of the Blue Ridge, Sunday morning. Mostly cloudy skies can be expected in the morning with a few breaks in the clouds possible in the southern portions of the area in the afternoon. High temperatures warm into 60s to low 70s across the forecast area with those at higher elevations staying in the 50s. As the front moves through, precipitation chances increase along the front. As the afternoon line of rain showers moves through, a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out due to non-zero instability. Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe weather just to our south with the forecast area in a general thunderstorm outlook. Winds increase in the wake of the frontal passage with west winds gusting 15 to 20 knots. A cool and dry airmass moves in with overnight temperatures dropping into the 30s to low 40s. Those at higher elevations will drop into the mid to upper 20s. While primarily dry conditions are expected across the forecast area, the exception will be the Alleghenies where upslope snow showers persist through Monday night. With Froude numbers staying in the 1 to 1.50 range, the resultant critical flow will not favor spillover snow showers farther downstream of the mountains. Overall, 1-3 inches is expected with localized higher amounts possible. Temperatures on Monday rise into the 40s and 50s with the Alleghenies staying in the 30s. Blustery winds will yield wind chill values staying in the 30s and 40s during the day before dropping into teens and 20s overnight. Low temperatures will be in the 20s across the forecast area with highest elevations dropping into the teens. A potent upper level trough digs across the east coast Monday night, leading to a slight chance of precipitation areawide. With cold temperatures in place, any precipitation that falls will be snow. While precipitation is expected to be light and little to no accumulation is expected, can't rule out a snow flake east of the mountains on Monday night. Long Term - Tuesday Through Saturday Upper troughing will progress offshore during the day on Tuesday. Meanwhile, at the surface, a strong area of low pressure will track toward the mouth of the St. Lawrence River while high pressure becomes centered along the Gulf Coast. Such a pressure pattern will lead to gusty westerly winds across the area. Those winds could potentially near Wind Advisory criteria in the mountains. Upslope snow showers in the Alleghenies will gradually wind down over the course of the morning as the subsidence inversion lowers behind the departing trough. Further east, dry conditions are expected, along with a mix of sun and clouds. It will be a chilly day everywhere, with highs in the 30s in the mountains and 40s elsewhere. The winds will make it feel much colder, with wind chills holding in the 20s and 30s through much of the day (teens in the mountains). A shortwave trough and associated clipper low will track to our north on Wednesday. Synoptic scale forcing for ascent associated with this system should largely remain to our north, so continued dry conditions are expected. However, the system will help to maintain a strong pressure gradient across the area, resulting in gusty southwesterly winds. Temperatures will trend warmer, with highs in the 50s and lower 60s for most (40s mountains). Upper troughing will linger over New England/Quebec for Thursday and Friday as upper ridging starts to build over the center of the country. At the surface, low pressure is expected to stall near the Gulf of St. Lawrence while high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Such a pattern will result in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures, with highs in the 50s (40s mountains) and lows generally in the 30s. Marine Winds remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. A warm front will develop overhead and move north early Sunday. Southerly winds near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria, gusting around 15 knots as the warm front lifts north during the day Sunday. A strong cold front is forecast to cross the waters Sunday night bringing high end Small Craft Advisory criteria winds across all waters. Winds shift to northwesterly in the wake of the front with advisories likely needed through Monday. At least high-end Small Craft Advisory winds appear likely in westerly flow on Tuesday, and low-end Gale conditions may be possible at times, especially Tuesday morning. High-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds appear likely within southwesterly flow on Wednesday. Fire Weather A potent cold front will yield gusty winds in its wake Tuesday next week. Cool temperatures and recent precipitation, albeit light, could inhibit fire weather concerns with highs in the 40s. Tides / Coastal Flooding Tidal anomalies continue to slowly rebound with a few sensitive locations (Annapolis and Straits Point) rising into action stage during the highest high tide cycles this weekend. No coastal flooding is expected. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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