Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...W Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Fri...E Winds 5 Kt...Becoming Nw Late. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. Light Freezing Spray. |
| Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Morning. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Snow. Light Freezing Spray. |
| Sun...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Freezing Rain, Snow And Sleet. Rain Through The Night, Then A Chance Of Snow After Midnight. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 947am EST Thu Jan 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the entire region for a potential major winter storm this weekend. Now is the time to make preparations given the significant impacts from this storm as well as prolonged cold to follow. Letting the Winter Weather Advisory for the Allegheny Mountains at 10 AM. Continuing to see an earlier trend of when the mixing will start Sunday morning compared to 24 hours ago. Our snow totals later this afternoon will include snow, sleet, and ice accumulations through 7pm Sunday. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) High confidence for a major winter storm across the region late Saturday into Sunday. - 2) Dangerously cold wind chills and near record breaking temperatures will remain likely this weekend through early next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...High confidence for a major winter storm across the region late Saturday into Sunday. Not too much change in regards to timing based upon the latest guidance with late Saturday evening through Sunday night as the prime period for significant winter weather impacts. NOAA AOML recon had been put dropsondes into the piece of the storm system yesterday which is still back west of Baja California. These dropsondes combined with upper air/other aircraft observations should give the models a few more pieces to the puzzle in regards to what will happen this weekend. The overall synoptic pattern remains rather complicated, particularly as a number of the features have not moved into the denser North American data network yet. As is common with Mid- Atlantic snowstorms, both the northern and southern streams need to be active with some interaction between the two. Looking more closely at this, the northern stream remains very amplified as cyclonic flow draws Arctic air southward. At the same time, the mentioned upper low just offshore of southern California should gradually accelerate eastward across Baja California early in the weekend. The height pattern evident in the guidance suggests a decent amount of confluence downstream across the central/eastern U.S. Ample lift over this region will occur atop the Arctic air mass that plunges southward in time. Meanwhile, ample low-level moisture advection takes place which will tap into the ample energetics of this setup. As the Arctic high settles over New England, the familiar cold air damming isobaric pattern sets up along the Eastern Seaboard. This will certainly ensure almost no chance of plain rain in this frigid setup. One thing to note regarding the latest guidance is that there has been some leveling off in the trends of the track of the low. Some uncertainty remains in how far north sleet/freezing rain evolves given the exact track of the system and temperature profiles aloft. With deeper cold air in place, sleet may be favored for a time for a large area south of I-70 and especially US-50 on Sunday before a potential transition to freezing rain. There are hints of significant icing potential from central VA and possibly into the I-95 corridor and southern MD late Sunday. Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15-18:1 with this system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 7-10:1 Sunday morning into the afternoon (lower where some mixing occurs). A pending dry slot could also play into amounts as well. Snow should be fluffy in nature, particularly within the initial warm advection conveyor belt Saturday night. Expect some crustiness of this snowpack given any mixing that may occur as the system kicks out heading into Sunday night. Upslope snow may linger along and west of the Allegheny Front into Monday morning, as will the potential for some light snow or freezing drizzle near and east of I-95. The probabilities for significant snow and ice remain very high. The most likely area for the highest snowfall totals is across northern MD and over VA near and west of the Blue Ridge. The chance of greater than 6 inches of snow is an impressive 75 to 90+ percent areawide, highest in the aforementioned arc. Chances for a foot of snow are also quite high with values well over 50 percent in the favored areas along/west of the Blue Ridge up to northern MD (with 30-50 percent chances of 18-24 inches there). Further south and east, mixing may ultimately put a lid on just how high snowfall totals get, though lift through the DGZ and therefore snowfall rates prior to any mixing look impressive. Regarding ice, areas from central VA to southern MD and up the I-95 corridor have the highest probabilities of icing at 30-50 percent (though that will likely trend higher given the setup as new guidance catches on and is ingested into the NBM). Chances for one-quarter inch or more of ice has ballooned to over 20 percent in these areas as well, with even some 10 to 20 percent probabilities of a half inch from central VA to southern MD. The combination of heavy snow and ice alongside prolonged very cold temperatures presents a unique and significant risk to life and property across virtually the entire region. Monitor the latest forecasts at weather.gov/lwx/winter for updates on this situation. Now is the time to make preparations for the storm. This includes getting any necessary groceries or medicines that you may not be able to access this weekend into early next week due to any potential closure. Have an emergency kit in the car including extra batteries, a flashlight, and blanket just in case you get stranded. Make sure to refuel or charge your car before the storm hits. Check on elderly friends, family, and neighbors and don't forget about pets or livestock during this prolonged cold period. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold wind chills and near record breaking temperatures will remain likely this weekend through early next week. 1036-1044mb Arctic high pressure to the north will unleash true Arctic air across the region this weekend into early next week. 850 mb temperatures Friday night into Saturday will drop to as low as -20 degrees C. This will yield widespread single digit lows Friday night with highs Saturday (east of the mountains) struggling to get out of the mid teens and low 20s. Wind chill factors won't be much better during this time with widespread values near or below zero Friday and Saturday nights. Temperatures increase slightly Sunday with highs in the upper teens and low 20s. Similar values can be expected Monday and Tuesday as well. Overnight lows will remain in the single digits to low teens with sub-zero values over the mountains. Of course daytime highs/lows will be subject to change given anticipated snowpack on the ground. Values could trend lower, especially during the nighttime and early morning periods as winds subside on certain nigheights heading into the new workweek. Several records may be broken within this frigid stretch (see Climate section below). Wind chills Sunday night into Monday, and Monday night into Tuesday will remain in the single digits to below zero areawide. The lowest wind chills right now look to occur behind the Arctic front Friday night into Saturday, and again Monday night into Tuesday as a reinforcing weak wave of energy passes through. With prolonged cold temperatures, expect an increase in water main issues and difficulty with snow/ice clearing operations. Hypothermia and frostbite will become an issue as well, especially for those spending extended time outdoors. For those using alternative sources of heat i.e. space heaters, fireplaces, and stoves, never leave these unattended. Keep areas well ventilated to avoid fires or carbon monoxide poisoning. Marine Winds shift to westerly this morning then northwesterly this afternoon with gusts around 20 knots. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria winds are expected late this afternoon through Friday morning. Northwest winds gust 20 to 25 knots over the waters beginning Friday afternoon and persist through the overnight. Cold temperatures may lead to possible freezing spray, especially as winds approach gale- force Friday night. Gusty winds and freezing spray likely linger through the weekend as a major winter storm tracks across the region. Tides / Coastal Flooding Blowout tides are expected Friday night through the first half of next week. Water levels are expected to bottom out at 1 to 2 ft below MLLW Saturday morning and may extend into Monday as NW winds strengthen. Climate Here are some daily temperature records during the January 24-27, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***SATURDAY, JANUARY 24TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 18F (1948) 3F (1963) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 21F (2014)! -2F (1987) Baltimore (BWI) 17F (1948) 1F (1963) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 21F (2014)+! 4F (1963) Martinsburg (MRB) 13F (1948) -4F (1963)+ Charlottesville (CHO) 23F (2014)+! 5F (1963) Annapolis (NAK) 18F (1948)! 2F (1963) Hagerstown (HGR) 12F (1936) -5F (1963)+ ***SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 16F (1897) 3F (1935) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 18F (1987) -5F (1987) Baltimore (BWI) 17F (1987)+ 0F (1897) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 20F (2004)+ 8F (1961) Martinsburg (MRB) 16F (2004)+ -4F (1936) Charlottesville (CHO) 19F (2004)+ 5F (1948) Annapolis (NAK) 19F (1961) 3F (1987) Hagerstown (HGR) 15F (2004) -15F (1935) ***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 17F (1961) 5F (1948)+ Washington-Dulles (IAD) 21F (1966) 3F (1987) Baltimore (BWI) 17F (1961) 2F (1961) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 19F (1961) 13F (1982)! Martinsburg (MRB) 12F (1961) -10F (1948) Charlottesville (CHO) 13F (1961) 9F (1922)! Annapolis (NAK) 18F (1961) 5F (1905) Hagerstown (HGR) 15F (1961) -12F (1948) ***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 22F (1961) 6F (1935) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 22F (2003) -9F (1987) Baltimore (BWI) 21F (1918) 3F (1987) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 22F (1961) 13F (1982)! Martinsburg (MRB) 17F (1971) -6F (1987) Charlottesville (CHO) 18F (1961) 0F (1982) Annapolis (NAK) 22F (1961) 5F (1927) Hagerstown (HGR) 17F (1907) -10F (1987) NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for DCZ001. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for MDZ008. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6pm EST Friday for MDZ008. Gale Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for MDZ008. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for MDZ003>006-503-505-507. Winter Weather Advisory until 10am EST this morning for MDZ501-509-510. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for MDZ501-502-509-510. VA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for VAZ053>057-527. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-526. Winter Weather Advisory until 10am EST this morning for VAZ503. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for VAZ503-504. WV...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for WVZ050>053-055. Winter Weather Advisory until 10am EST this morning for WVZ501-503-505. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for WVZ501>506. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ530>543. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6pm EST Friday for ANZ530>533-538>541. Gale Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for ANZ530>534-537>543. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for ANZ530. Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 6am EST Saturday for ANZ535-536. |
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