Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1025am EDT Monday Mar 30 2020
A secondary cold front approaching from the Great Lakes will cross the Mid-Atlantic today. High pressure will build in its wake tonight into Tuesday before low pressure passes well to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will follow into the first half of the weekend. A cold front may approach by early next week.
Near Term - Through Tuesday
The marine layer has been stubborn to erode, but appears to be doing to per last half hour of satellite imagery. A secondary cold front appears poised to cross the Appalachians, promoting deep mixing which will finally scour out the low-level moisture. Mean momentum transfer should support wind gusts in the mid 20s (knots). Airmass remains fairly warm, which will only be aided by downslope flow, so raised high temps by a degree or two.
Cooler air builds south across the region tonight with high pressure and dwindling winds. Temps will be cooler than they've been in several days, but still only near normal for this time of year. A stray shower can't be ruled out overnight as a weak disturbances passes.
Clouds will increase on Tuesday as a backdoor front drops southeast across the area and low pressure approaches from the southwest. This low will only give us a glancing blow, but a few showers may develop with the back door front as well. Temperatures will be cooler with the clouds and overall cooler Canadian air mass, with highs only in the 50s.
Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night
Low pressure passes to the south and then off the coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Best chance of rain is Tuesday night, but some showers may linger Wednesday with upper level forcing and some surface convergence. Highest elevations of the mountains may see an inch or two of snow, but not advisory criteria. System heads out to sea by Wednesday night with decreasing clouds. Low Tuesday night will remain seasonable, but highs Wednesday will be on the cool side for this time of year once again, with 50s common. Lows Wednesday night mainly in the 30s.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
High pressure is expected to retain control of the weather pattern over the Mid-Atlantic Thursday into the first half of the weekend. This will lead to gradually warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions. A cold front may approach Sunday into Monday bringing the next chance of rain. Model guidance has trended slower with this front, though spread is still large.
Low pressure moving away from the region with high pressure building in will allow gusty winds across the waters today. They may be marginal, but will keep SCA (Small Craft Advisory) issued previously for all waters through this evening. Gusts diminish overnight with high pressure, but as low pressure passes to the south and strengthens Tuesday night and Wednesday, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may again be needed.
Northwesterly flow is expected with gusts exceeding 20 knots possible Thursday into Friday morning, likely becoming lighter by Friday afternoon as high pressure builds.
Gusty northwest winds and low humidity are expected today across central Virginia as high pressure builds in. Relative humidity will drop below 30 percent across much of Virginia this afternoon as winds increase to 15 to 20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph). Issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight risk, focusing on central Virginia. Fuels in Maryland are too moist and RH not forecast to drop below 30%.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Water levels running about a foot to a foot and a half above astronomical normals this morning. At this level, the tide fell about an inch or two short of minor at Straits Point and it looks like it'll just hit the minor threshold at Annapolis. Will hold onto Anne Arundel's Advisory until the tide reaches the mouth of the Patapsco. Will also be monitoring SW DC.
Departures will remain high for the next couple of days, although there should be a brief decline with northwest winds picking up later today.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for MDZ014. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>543.