Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA Marine Forecast
|Overnight...N Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt... Becoming Nw Around 5 Kt Early In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Se Late. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Morning. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night. Showers Likely. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
916pm EDT Tuesday May 17 2022
Cold front will move south of the area this evening. High pressure will build over the area tonight into early Wednesday. A warm front will lift through the area early Thursday followed by a cold front during the afternoon. Another cold front will cross the area Sunday. High pressure builds over the region early next week.
Near Term - Through Wednesday
Skies have become mostly clear this evening with winds becoming light out of the northwest. Clear and calm conditions along with dew points in the mid to upper 40s will likely allow overnight temperatures to drop down into the 40s and lower 50s.
Dry cold front is currently moving through the area and is accompanied by a band of mid-level clouds and a wind shift to the NW. Clouds will rapidly dissipate this evening with sunset and winds will drop off quickly except over the waters where cooler air blowing over warmer water (now in the mid 60s) will result in low-level steep lapse rates. Surface ridge builds overhead by Wed morning.
Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night
Warm front attached to a low pressure center over LK Erie will lift north through the area Wednesday night into Thu morning. Strengthening warm air advection pattern will lead to widespread clouds and sct-nmrs showers late Wednesday into Thu morning. Cdfnt associated with the low pressure center will now cross the area Thu afternoon with risk of showers/t-storms now much lower than it was anticipated a couple of days ago. Warmer on Thu with highs back into the low 80s.
Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday
Increasing warm air will continue into Friday with highs in the upper 80s across a large portion of the area. A warm front may bring a few showers and even an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening. By Saturday, high pressure will be well established off to the southeast of the Mid-Atlantic region. The hottest day of the year thus far will likely be realized Saturday during the afternoon hours. Many areas will likely see upper 80s to even mid to upper 90s possible Saturday. Some of the warmer locations will be the areas impacted by downsloping in N/NW flow just east of the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge Mountains. Due to this being unusually hot so early, Heat Advisories may be needed with heat indices potentially reaching 100 F. For the weekend, there does exist a chance for some strong to potentially even severe thunderstorms to arise. Better forcing and available instability looks to be west of the Blue Ridge Mountains.
Height falls will be realized but timing will play a pivotal role in potential impacts. If the increased height falls occur late in the day and overnight hours then severe potential may be limited and vice versa. For now, the better forcing continues to be further north of the region but will be something worth monitoring. Sunday, the approaching cold front will likely be through a large portion of the area but model discrepancy is present as to timing of the frontal passage. It is worth monitoring the potential for severe storms both days for the weekend with a number of features to account for. The front is likely out of the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning but lingering low to mid level moisture may allow for some residual showers and increased cloud cover to continue throughout the day.
Gusty NW winds shifting more tho the N tonight, then diminishing toward daybreak Wed. Winds strengthen again Wednesday night with SCA conditions likely continuing through Thu.
SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) [possible Friday and Friday night. A few showers and thunderstorms may cross the waters Saturday afternoon and evening but the better likelihood looks to be west of the waters.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534- 536>543. Small Craft Advisory from 8pm Wednesday to 6am EDT Thursday for ANZ530>543. Small Craft Advisory until 3am EDT Wednesday for ANZ535.