Marine Weather Net

Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SAT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SAT NIGHT

NE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ535 Forecast Issued: 936 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
Rest Of Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late This Morning And Early Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft.
Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.
Sun...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.
Mon...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Tue...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1013am EST Fri Nov 16 2018

Synopsis: Low pressure will move northeast toward Atlantic Canada today. High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley over the weekend. A cold front will likely approach from the Great Lakes early next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Surface low pressure has moved to near Cape Cod this morning. A second upper level trough is approaching the Appalachians, which could help keep broken cloud cover over the western ridges and across the northern zones. Upslope flow will keep some snow showers going on the ridges today, but accumulations will be minimal. A gusty west to northwest wind will continue through the day. Have extended the Wind Advisory until noon in collaboration with neighboring offices since significant ice accretion occurred on the ridges and winds could easily bring trees down. Despite the wind, the return of some sun plus temps which will generally be 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday will make today seem like a huge change. The warmth and sun will also allow for plenty of melting. Highs will approach 50, though the snow cover may prevent 50 from being reached in most of the area.

Upslope flow weakens later today and tonight as high pressure builds into West Virginia. Winds will diminish as well, so radiational cooling should allow most of the area to fall back down to freezing or below. This could result in icy patches given the melting which will be occurring today. There could also be some lingering moisture trapped on the ridges, which could result in some patchy high elevation freezing drizzle. Otherwise, the weather tonight should be benign

Short Term - Saturday Through Saturday Night
High pressure lingers over the region Saturday into early Sunday as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will take its time, but clouds will start to increase Saturday night, and a few showers may enter the region Sunday. However, the best chance of any precipitation is Sunday night, and those odds will be highest in western Maryland. In that area, the rain showers could mix with snow, but elsewhere, whatever falls will likely be just rain. With winds becoming more west to southwest and continued snow melt, temps should gradually rise, with 50 becoming more likely by Sunday

Long Term - Sunday Through Thursday
A weak cold front is forecast to move through the area on Monday. However, given that upper level forcing, in the form of an upper level shortwave trough, seems to remain displaced well to the north and west of the cold front. This will lead to very little, if any, precipitation across the region. Thinking that the only places that see precipitation from this system are the upslope-prone areas in the higher elevations. This front won't even really bring a dramatic shift in temperatures, with highs remaining in the upper 40/low 50s.

By Tuesday, expecting high pressure to return to the region, bringing continued dry weather. However, there is a non-zero chance for another low pressure system to affect the region late Tuesday. This appears to be an outlier solution at this time, but will leave slight chance POPs for highest elevations at this time to account for this possibility. High pressure remains anchored over the region through Wednesday as well. High temperatures on both days will struggle to reach the mid 40s.

By Thanksgiving Day, high pressure shifts offshore, bringing a return to southwest flow to the region. So, temperatures should warm into the low 50s for Thanksgiving, with continued dry weather across the region.

Marine Discussion
Low pressure pulling away from the region will leave gusty winds in its place. Have cancelled the Gale Warning, although some gusts to 30 kt remain possible today. Small Craft Advisory conditions should last into this evening. Winds should diminish Saturday as high pressure builds overhead.

Winds are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria on Monday and most of Tuesday. Some gusty winds are possible Tuesday night, but again, look to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria at this time

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record (through November 15th):

Washington DC area (DCA) 1. 61.33 inches (1889) 2. 60.83 inches (2003) 3. 60.09 inches (1878) 4. 58.53 inches (2018) 5. 58.17 inches (1886) Weather records for the Washington DC area have been kept at what is now Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore MD area (BWI) 1. 63.01 inches (2018) 2. 62.66 inches (2003) 3. 62.35 inches (1889) 4. 58.98 inches (1979) Weather records for the Baltimore MD area have been kept at what is now Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI) since 1950. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles VA area (IAD) 1. 65.67 inches (2003) 2. 59.15 inches (2018) 3. 59.05 inches (1972) 4. 58.09 inches (1996) 5. 55.43 inches (1979) Weather records have been kept at what is now Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) since 1960.

NOTE: All climate data are considered preliminary until reviewed by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ025-026-503-504-507- 508. WV...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ505-506.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EST Saturday for ANZ532-537- 540.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for ANZ533-534- 541-543.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ535- 536-542.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ530-531- 538-539

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