Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD Marine Forecast
| Today...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming W Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 339am EST Monday Dec 2 2024 Synopsis The combination of persistent upper troughing in the east and high pressure building in from the west will yield continued below average temperatures through the middle of the week. A strong area of low pressure will track to our north on Wednesday into Thursday, driving a strong cold front southward through the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Unsettled weather then continues into the weekend with another area of low pressure potentially impacting the region. Near Term - Through Tonight An upper-level trough will remain in place across the Eastern US today as high pressure slowly approaches from the west at the surface. This will lead to continued below normal temps, and mainly dry conditions. Skies are expected to be mostly sunny to the east of the mountains with a bit more cloud cover in the Alleghenies in continued northwest flow. High temperatures will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s (20s mountains). While winds won't be all that strong today, it will be enough to make it feel quite blustery out there when we do get gusts. Wind chills will be around freezing for most, with single digits to low teens in the higher elevations along the Allegheny Front. Low temperatures tonight fall into the 20s for most (low to mid teens in the mountains). There will still be a fair amount of wind blowing around tonight, especially in the mountains and generally north of I-66. This may impact lows and keep them from really tanking, but anywhere that can completely decouple is likely to get quite cold tonight, even outside of the mountains. Typical sheltered locations in the Shenandoah Valley and the rural areas of VA Piedmont could dip into the teens as well. Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night The upper trough that has plagues the region in recent days remains in place on Tuesday, with the result being continued blustery and dry conditions. Wind gusts up to 20 to 25 mph and highs in the 30s to low 40s will result in wind chills well into the upper 20s to low 30s for most. For those in the higher elevations, especially above 3000 feet, wind chills remain in the single digits to teens. Light winds and mostly clear skies Tuesday night should lead to ideal conditions for radiational cooling. This will yield one of the colder nigheights of this stretch, with low in the teens to low 20s. A brief period of height rises builds in on Wednesday as a short period of ridging builds overhead. This is ahead of a very potent upper trough that will dive down into the region from the Great Lakes Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. This will bring high temperatures into the mid 40s on Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, clouds begin to build ahead of the approaching system from the northwest. The aforementioned shortwave will usher in the next chance for precipitation. Upslope snow showers will lead to accumulating snowfall along/west of the Allegheny Front, with initial forecast amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range through early Thursday morning. Outside of the mountains, some showers could spill eastward into the metros, perhaps even a few flakes, but right now it seems more likely that we would see rain given the warmer temperatures compared to recent days. For the Shenandoah Valley/Blue Ridge area, given low temperatures near freezing, some snow is more plausible there, especially along the Blue Ridge. Speaking of temperatures, lows are expected to be in the mid 30s for those east of the Blue Ridge, with upper 20s to low 30s to the west up through the Potomac Highlands, and teens west of the Allegheny Front. Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday A robust upper low continues its track across the Great Lakes toward New England on Thursday. Characterized by 500-mb height anomalies around 2 to 2.5 standard deviations below normal, this swift moving system will bring a strong cold front across the area on Thursday morning. Although the core of the forcing with this trough stays to the north, 24-hour height falls run between 15-20 dm which shows just how formidable this system is. Recent guidance continues to show some wind-driven showers which head toward the Chesapeake Bay on Thursday morning. Meanwhile, farther west, some gusty upslope snow showers are possible along the Allegheny Front. A few of these snowflakes could push off the terrain toward the lower elevations. This threat should gradually wane into the night. As mentioned, wind will be a big factor in Thursday's weather pattern as 850-mb westerlies peak between 40-55 knots. Forecast soundings show deep mixing up to around 800-mb which would support mixing some of these higher winds to near the surface. The current forecast package advertises robust wind fields across the Alleghenies with gusts to around 45 to 55 mph, locally higher. This easily reaches the criteria for Wind Advisories, nearing High Wind Warning thresholds closer to the mountain peaks. In the lower elevations, Thursday's wind gusts may push into the 30 to 40 mph range. Given a downsloping component to the wind fields, temperatures will be slightly warmer than previous days. Forecast highs may near 50 degrees along I-64 and across far southern Maryland. Elsewhere, 40s are more likely with 20s to 30s in the mountains. Winds stay elevated into the night which will keep low wind chills in the picture. More specifically, nighttime mountain wind chills range from -10F to the single digits, with mainly teens elsewhere. A strong area of high pressure pushes in from the Midwest on Friday. However, the synoptic-scale pressure gradient remains somewhat tight given a strong low pressure center around the province of New Brunswick in eastern Canada. This high/low couplet keeps winds blustery at times on Friday with high temperatures confined to the 30s to near 40 degrees (teens to 20s for mountain locations). Winds gradually diminish in strength into Friday night as high pressure to the west settles over the area. This will make for a very cold night on Friday with lows mainly in the teens to low 20s, locally in the mid 20s around D.C. and Baltimore. Heading into the weekend, recent models have trended away from a system impacting the area. However, there are still intermittent solutions that support a weekend system. Given the degree of cold air in place, still continue to monitor the forecast for any winter weather threats for the first half of the weekend. By Sunday, forecast highs do return to near typical early December climatology. Marine A prolonged period of gusty northwesterly winds take hold starting today and continuing through Wednesday. This is the result of a potent trough to our north with several impulses of upper-level energy swinging through. For today, winds will taper off in the northern Chesapeake Bay and Upper Tidal Potomac as we enter a gap between shortwaves. Winds then pick back up overnight into Tuesday, with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) picking back up for all waters. Winds may fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria by Tuesday evening into the first half of Wednesday before the next upper-level system pushes through Wednesday night. Winds will increase substantially late Wednesday into Thursday morning, this time out of the south- southwest, ahead of an approaching cold front. The strong cold front is expected to cross through the waters on Thursday morning. Strong vertical mixing behind this front should enhance the gale threat for all waters on Thursday into the night. Will continue to monitor the need for Gale Watches. These blustery westerly winds eventually shift to northwesterly by Friday. Some residual gale threat may loom into Friday morning before decreasing to around 20 to 30 knots through the afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisories will be needed during this downtick. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for MDZ008. Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 6pm EST Tuesday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540. Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ533-534-537- 541>543. |
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