Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD Marine Forecast
| Tonight...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Sun...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 929pm EDT Fri September 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Hourly trends have been touched up, but there are no major changes to the forecast at this time. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A few showers possible overnight, then likely widespread convection Saturday into Saturday night. - 2) Dry conditions expected early next week ahead of a midweek cold front. KEY MESSAGE 1...A few showers possible overnight, then likely widespread convection Saturday into Saturday night. The slow moving frontal boundary has now pushed into North Carolina. A few showers are drifting eastward across central Virginia, generally in a weakening state. The bulk of the overnight hours, and possibly through midday Saturday, may be dry in most locations. However, by the second half of tonight, 850 mb winds become southerly, and overrunning moisture could produce a few light showers or some drizzle. Guidance also indicates potential for fog overnight. While some radiation fog could form over northwestern parts of the area where it is still mostly clear, it appears the main driver of reduced visibility will be lowering stratus, particularly close to the ridges. Most locations will have overnight lows in the 60s. Surface high pressure over southern New England slides offshore Saturday causing southeasterly flow to develop/strengthen over the Mid-Atlantic. The synoptic pattern gets messy into the weekend as an elongated trough stretches from the Deep South to Mid-Atlantic. The stalled boundary over southern VA lifts north as a warm front Saturday morning, bringing a possibly first round of showers to the area. As the boundary lifts north of the MD/PA border, warm sector showers are possible at time Saturday afternoon, though the bulk of convection is set to arrive toward the evening hours. Numerous embedded shortwaves lift across the Tennessee Valley toward the southern Mid-Atlantic, helping produce ample lift and shear across the region. A surge of tropical moisture brings PWATs (Precipitable Waters) to around 2" Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. A wave of surface low pressure may try to develop somewhere in lee of the Alleghenies Saturday evening as the strongest shortwave traverses the region. A subtle jet streak develops ahead of the upper trough, and while not overly impressive it will be enough to aid in widespread showers and thunderstorm development. Locally heavy rain is likely in some areas, though the 12Z high res guidance does not point to any one specific location. Later analysis on areas of low-level convergence that set up will be key to determine where a flash flood threat could develop. But for now, have not issued any Flood Watches due to uncertainty in location of heaviest rain. WPC has expanded the Slight Risk area for excessive rainfall to include the Alleghenies where soils are more saturated from rain over the past month. Will continue to monitor the situation as new mesoscale guidance arrives. A cold front associated with the upper trough finally swings through the area Sunday morning to afternoon, bringing an end to any lingering showers. This front won't bring much of an airmass change as temps still reach the 80s and humidity lingers. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions expected early next week ahead of a midweek cold front. Upper-level ridging begins to build over the Southeast beginning Monday and into Tuesday as the cold front transitions offshore. Humidity & temperatures decrease in the wake of the cold front on Monday, with dewpoints ranging in the 50s and low 60s as mid-level dry air transitions overhead. Monday night might be the first fall night of widespread lows in the 50s. Overall, anticipate seasonal, dry conditions to persist over the following days as this ridging continues to build into the midweek period. Beginning Wednesday, this ridging begins to transition into more of a zonal flow overhead as a trough further north forms over Quebec and Nova Scotia. An associated cold front could begin to track across the East Coast sometime during this period, although current guidance shows some spread in the timing of this frontal passage. This front could bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region, but probability of severe weather remains low at this time. Marine A front is stalling south of the waters tonight, then will lift north as a warm front Saturday night. An increase in southeast winds over the waters Saturday could be near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. Late afternoon to late evening thunderstorms could lead to hazardous marine conditions, with Special Marine Warnings possibly needed. A secondary front moves through Sunday, then a stronger cold front on Monday. Wind gusts could increase to near marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds on Monday before diminishing throughout the day Tuesday. Winds stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through Wednesday. Northeasterly winds shift southeasterly in the wake of a cold front by Tuesday night. Tides / Coastal Flooding Strengthening onshore flow Saturday will bring tide levels up across the area. Some locations could reach Action Stage by Saturday night to early Sunday high tides. A cold front moves through Sunday, and again Monday, which should bring an end to any coastal flooding potential. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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