Marine Weather Net

Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY

SW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUESDAY

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ552 Forecast Issued: 510 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.
Monday...Southwest Winds 5 Knots Becoming East In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Tuesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers And Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers And Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers And Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night... Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Showers And Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Thursday... Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Showers And Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night... Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas To 9 Feet. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1021pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

Issued at 954pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

Now through tonight...A broken line of rain and lightning storms is ongoing across Okeechobee, Indian River, and St. Lucie counties this afternoon. Farther north, mainly dry conditions persist, outside of a few onshore-moving showers in southern Brevard County. Weak ridging aloft continues to break down as a washed out, remnant frontal boundary slowly treks northward. Both of these features will gradually dissipate late tonight into the day on Monday.

For the rest of this evening, expect rain showers and a couple of lightning storms to remain confined to areas south of Orange County. Activity will deteriorate late tonight with only isolated showers and storms possible over the Atlantic waters. Light onshore flow becomes south-southwesterly overnight. Partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions will allow temperatures to fall into the low and middle 70s.

Monday-Tuesday (modified previous)...Steady increase in moisture with SE-S winds backing to E-SE and increasing on the peripheral circulation of what is forecast to be rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone "Ian" as it reaches the SE GOMEX and turns northward. There remains a great deal of uncertainty as to just how far offshore the center of "Ian" will be late Tuesday night (and beyond). The current forecast will remain predicated on the official NHC forecast of Ian's center moving northward to a position offshore the SWFL coast by Tuesday, with increasing coverage of showers/storms, especially Tuesday night as some of the outer bands and attendant squalls begin to spread over the local Atlantic, slowly spreading northward from the Treasure Coast. POPs will range from scattered across the north half to likely/categorical south Mon, trending to categorical for all but the far north (likely) through Tuesday night.

Expect increasing threat for locally heavy rainfall from repeated rounds of showers (highest south/coastal) per WPC Day3 ERO showing a slight risk of excessive rainfall from Osceola/Brevard southward. with a marginal risk to the north. Risk of gusty squalls in outer rain bands will also increase.

Max temps Monday in the U80s coast and 90-92F inland, with mins L70s. Increase in clouds/precipitation coverage should keep maxes down in the L-M80s for much of the CWA, with some U80s far north. Warmer mins in the L-M70s inland and M-U70s near the coast.

Wednesday-Friday (modified previous)...Main impacts from "Ian" expected in the Wed-Thu time frame. While the magnitude (especially sustained SE-S winds and gusts) remains uncertain, there should be a continued increase in showers/squalls with heavy rainfall, and tornado potential will also unfold. POPs remain in the categorical range from Wednesday through daytime Thu as Ian makes its closest approach to central FL. The forecast slowly decreases rain chances Thu into Fri, ultimately depending on the location/forward speed of "Ian".

Continue to keep apprised of the latest forecasts and potential impacts from Ian from the National Hurricane Center, and your local National Weather Service Office in Melbourne.

Next weekend (modified previous)...Model guidance differs on the southward extent of drying wrapping into the FL peninsula behind "Ian". Given the uncertainty, the current forecast shows gradually decreasing POPs, however, there is some indication that Sat could be drier than advertised. Temps are expected to return closer to normal.

Marine
Issued at 208pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

Tonight...Onshore flow 10-15 kts becomes southerly around 10 kts tonight. Isolated to scattered rain showers and an isolated lightning storm remain possible through the night, especially in the offshore waters. Seas gradually becoming 3 ft, perhaps even 2-3 ft along the immediate coast.

Monday - Thursday
revious)...Light SE winds Monday will increase beginning Monday night, backing onshore late Tue, followed by significant increase in SE-S winds and seas through Wed-Thu. Current forecast peaks sustained winds around 25kt with seas up to 10ft. Strong SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds expected. However, frequent gusts to tropical storm force (34kt) or greater will occur in numerous squalls, accompanied by locally higher seas.

Hydrology
Issued at 208pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to gradually rise over the next several days but should remain in Minor Flood Stage through mid week. Near Geneva above Lake Harney, the Saint Johns River is forecast to remain in Action Stage this week. While specific impacts still remain uncertain at this time, additional rainfall associated with tropical cyclone Ian may cause further rises of river levels into next weekend. Those with interests along the Saint Johns River should continue to monitor the latest forecast.

NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None.