Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Thursday...South Winds 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Saturday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
1011 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021
The Atlantic high pressure ridge axis over south Florida will lift slowly north into central Florida through this weekend, allowing light southwest winds will become southerly. Winds will become onshore near the coast each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze develops. Favorable boating conditions are expected outside of offshore-moving afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms.
Gulf Stream Hazards: South to southwest winds 15 to 20 knots north of Sebastian Inlet.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Sunday, August 1st.
41 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
30 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
25 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
16 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
9 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1000am EDT Wednesday August 4 2021
Current...KMLB 88D shows ISOLD-SCT convection with light/moderate rain moving from WCFL/SWFL into ECFL. 915MHZ USAF Cape wind profilers show uniformly SW winds around 20 kts just off the deck thru around 10.0 Kft. Generally MCLoudy skies presently across the region with the sun having some work ahead to burn this off for eventual surface heating. A quasi-stationary surface boundary continues to lie across the Deep South/southeast U.S. to include north FL. This is keeping the Atlantic ridge axis surpressed south of ECFL.
Today - Tonight
The mid/upper level trough across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will keep the aforementioned surface boundary lingering across the north Gulf and north FL through the period. Deep moisture will continue to pool across the region providing fuel for SCT-NMRS (aftn/evening) convection over the FL peninsula. 500 mb temps will average between -5.5C-6.5C. Occasional weak mid-level impulses will traverse the area providing for additional lift to support the showers/storms. The deep SW/W flow will inhibit ECSB development for much of the ECFL coast, but will have to monitor for the immediate St. Lucie/Martin coasts for this feature to possibly be pinned along the coast. The potential factor to suppressing convection, including timing, is the persistent mid-high level cloud cover limiting surface heating. Southwest FL remains very active this morning and will monitor for convection here pushing into Okeechobee County and areas across the Treasure Coast for some heavy rainfall potential.
Storm threats will continue to be frequent lightning strikes in a few storms, gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph in strongest activity, and torrential downpours leading to nuisance flooding in areas that have recently seen abundant rainfall and across low-lying/poor drainage locations. Cannot rule out localized storm totals in a couple spots of 2-4 inches, especially in slower-moving activity or if/where heavier showers/storms "train".
Clouds/precipitation could limit temperatures today and have inherited M- U80s for highs. We retain the cloud cover again this evening and overnight and with the deep moisture/proximity to the front, and passing impulses, cannot rule out a few showers or isolated storm overnight, though we should gradually see a decrease in ongoing shower/storm coverage/intensity thru the evening. Overnight lows generally in the L-M70s with conditions humid.
Today - Tonight
The Atlantic high pressure ridge axis continues southward with a weak frontal boundary draped across north FL allowing deep moisture to pool across the area. A tighter pressure gradient is permitting S/SW winds of near 15-20 kts offshore/north of Sebastian Inlet. It is here where small craft should exercise caution thru the afternoon and perhaps early evening. Wind direction may "back" a bit more SSW/S later this evening and overnight. SCT-NMRS showers with SCT lightning storms remain in the forecast with some activity moving off of the coast, especially later in the afternoon/evening. Seas 2-3 ft near shore, but may approach 4 ft well offshore/north of the Cape. As always, winds/seas may be higher in the vicinity of showers/storms.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories