Marine Weather Net

Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRIDAY

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRIDAY NIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SATURDAY

NW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ552 Forecast Issued: 334 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South Towards Daybreak. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely After Midnight.
Friday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers.
Saturday...Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet. Rough On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers.
Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet. Rough On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Sunday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 7 To 10 Feet. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Monday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet.
Monday Night...West Winds 5 Knots Becoming Southwest 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Tuesday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.
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Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500
334 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

A moderate to fresh onshore breeze will gradually slacken and veer to southerly through tonight as a warm front lifts north across central Florida. Long period swells will be slower to subside, resulting in hazardous boating conditions lingering through this evening. A gale center is forecast to develop offshore the southeast coast Friday and intensify this weekend as it moves slowly northeast. Increasing northwest to north winds will cause winds and seas to become hazardous for small craft operators, again, Friday overnight through the weekend.

Gulf Stream Hazards: East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with seas 6 to 8 feet.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Wednesday, November 13th. 43 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
32 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
27 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet. 18 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
10 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
310pm EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Current - Tonight
WSR-88D shows increasing light to moderate precipitation moving from the south to the north across ECFL as a warm frontal boundary ventures northward. High pressure pushing away from the Atlantic Seaboard ahead of the next approaching low pressure system. Winds have veered to E/ESE and will continue to transition to more SERLY (southeasterly) this evening, then south to southwesterly overnight. This, as inverted troughing/surface low pressure developing over the GOMEX moves northeast toward west FL through tonight. This system will be aided by a rather vigorous upper air low near the southeast Texas coast. This feature is forecast to become an open trough as it presses eastward across the northern Gulf and eventually teams up with additional vigorous upper troughing dropping southward out of the central/southern Plains to align over the Gulf Coast States by sunrise Fri morning. Pieces of energy or impulses aloft will become more numerous as they pass across the peninsula later tonight.

Isentropic lift will steadily increase into tonight. Deep layer moisture will also be on the rise with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) pooling towards 2 inches this evening and overnight. Rain chances will increase as we venture into the evening and overnight periods. For tonight Probability of Precipitation values steadily increase to 60-70pct for the I-4 corridor and taper back to 50-60pct southward from here. The greatest overall chances for realizing these numbers will be late evening and overnight as light to moderate precipitation overspreads ECFL. As instability increases we will mention an isolated and embedded lighting/thunder threat as well.

Min values only falling back into M60s-L70s.

Fri-Fri Night...Previous Modified...Our next cold front is forecast to be just to the northwest of I-4 Fri morning with broad surface low pressure over or just off the northeast FL coast. In the mid and upper levels, the cutoff area of low pressure will be slowly moving across the Gulf Coast States. Deep moisture across the area, some impulses in the flow aloft, and being in the right entrance of an upper-level jet will provide a day of high shower chances. Probability of Precipitation of 70% areawide look good along with a few rumbles of thunder also possible. Mostly cloudy skies should keep high temperatures in the low-mid 70s north of Orlando with mid to upper 70s for areas south.

The cold front is expected to be around the Lake Okeechobee/Martin county area by Fri evening. This frontal boundary looks to have some anafront-type characteristics with deeper moisture and upper-level support remaining behind the boundary, so shower chances will linger into Fri night. As the surface low deepens off the SE U.S. coast, northwesterly winds will begin cool, dry advection that gradually brings down rain chances from west to east as we get toward Saturday morning. Min temps in the mid to upper 50s.

Saturday - Sunday
.Closed low aloft shifts eastward and offshore of the southeast U.S. coast through Saturday, intensifying surface low off the coast of the Carolinas and shifting cold front well southeast of the area. A drier and cooler than normal pattern expected into the weekend as N/NW flow persists across the region. Highs each day will range from the mid to upper 60s along to north of a line from Orlando to the Cape, with low 70s expected farther south. Temps into Saturday night and Sunday night will feel rather chilly, especially with how warm it has been lately, with lows in the low to mid 50s most areas and mid to upper 40s possible northwest of I-4.

Modified Previous Discussion... Monday - Thursday
An upper-level trough looks to sweep across the area on Monday but is only expected to bring an increase in cirrus- level clouds with the atmosphere remaining very dry in the mid and lower levels.

Rain chances then increase slightly into Monday night and Tuesday as another trough and cold front approach from the west. Uncertainty remains in overall rain chances into this period, however, as GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) have been inconsistent in available moisture as this front moves through. As the trough axis quickly pushes east of the area Tuesday night, the global models bring another stretch of dry weather in for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures look to continue slightly below normal for this period.

Marine
Afternoon-Fri...Will end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) near shore Volusia waters at 20Z/3PM and continue SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for Seas over the remaining 5 marine legs. Will carry SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for near shore waters from Volusia-Brevard County line through Jupiter Inlet until 09Z/4AM and continue offshore through 15Z/10AM Fri. Winds have slowly decreased by may see occasional 15 to 20 kts over the Gulf Stream. Otherwise seas 4-6 ft near shore Volusia and 5-8 ft elsewhere across the advisory. Seas will continue a slow decrease into Fri. The next storm system approaches from the Gulf tonight and moves through the area Fri/Fri night. SCT-NMRS showers with isolated lightning storms will be forecast.

Fri night-Sun...Fresh to strong N/NW breeze develops behind passing cold front into the weekend, leading to an extended period of hazardous boating conditions developing into Friday night and continuing through Saturday and Sunday. Wind speeds will increase to 20-25 knots with occasional gusts up to gale force possible offshore, mainly into Saturday with seas building up to 7-9 feet nearshore and up to 10-12 feet offshore through Saturday night and Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed across the entire coastal waters through the weekend.

Monday-Tuesday...Although winds back to offshore and decrease on Monday, seas will be slow to subside, remaining hazardous through much of early next week, especially offshore.

Hydrology
The SJR at ASTF1 continues in Minor Flood stage between 2.7-2.8FT. Expect a steady to slow fall over the next day or two, however, this will likely be halted, mainly by strong N-NW flow behind the developing Atlantic Gale Friday into this weekend.


NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4am EST Friday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10am EST Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.