Marine Weather Net

Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY

N
WINDS
5 KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TUESDAY

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ552 Forecast Issued: 333 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Monday...North Winds 5 Knots Becoming East In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 12 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Tuesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Wednesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.
Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Friday...West Winds 10 Knots Becoming Northwest In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
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Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500
1009 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and Tropical Storm Zeta over the western Caribbean, will veer the local winds from the southeast to south. A gentle to moderate breeze will persist with brief increases in winds with any thunderstorm development. Conditions for small craft operators will remain poor this afternoon, as swells from distant Hurricane Epsilon slowly subside.

Gulf Stream Hazards: Seas up to 6 feet.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Saturday, October 24th.
39 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
27 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
22 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
16 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
11 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
324pm EDT Sunday Oct 25 2020

Currently - Tonight
Showers and storms will continue to increase across east central Florida through the afternoon, with greatest coverage of this activity still expected south of a line from Orlando to the Cape where greatest moisture exists. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be possible across these southern areas, especially along the Treasure Coast, with any repeated rounds of showers or slow moving storms forming off of a developing sea breeze. Amounts up to 1-2 inches with localized higher totals of 3-4 inches will continue to be possible for this area, especially Martin and St. Lucie counties.

Convection will gradually wind down after sunset, with Probability of Precipitation decreasing to 30-50 percent this evening from Osceola and southern Brevard counties southward, and areas north of Orlando looking to remain dry into tonight. Past midnight, will then only keep a slight chance for showers brushing the coast of St. Lucie and Martin counties, as they move northward across the coastal waters. Stratus and patchy fog look to develop across the interior later tonight, with a few locations seeing limited visibilities less than a mile toward and northwest of the I-4 corridor by daybreak Monday. Lows will fall into the low 70s tonight.

Modified Previous Discussion... Mon-Wed...Mid level trough axis shifts farther east of the Florida and Mid-Atlantic coast as ridge aloft builds eastward across the region and eventually east of Florida into mid week. As ridge shifts east, T.S. Zeta will move northwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico, strengthening into a hurricane as it then eventually moves northward into the central Gulf and toward the northern Gulf coast by mid week. In the lower levels, an E/SE flow will develop Monday between "Zeta" to our SW and high pressure to the north and continue thru midweek. There will be some lingering moisture across the southern half of east central Florida (Okeechobee/Treasure coast) on Monday where rain chances will remain 40-50 percent. But relatively drier air moving in Tue-Wednesday will lower rain chances areawide to 20- 30 percent across much of the region. It will remain warm through the period, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low to mid 70s.

Thu-Sat...Decent agreement in the models continues into late week, with upper ridging shifting eastward as upper troughing develops over the eastern CONUS. This will allow a cool front to push through central Florida on Friday. Rain chances remain rather low even with this frontal passage, with Probability of Precipitation no more than 20-30 percent at this time. GFS/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) MOS guidance has come into a little better agreement, showing min temps as low as the 60s into Sat morning. However, winds then look to quickly veer onshore into early this weekend, which will likely limit any drying or cooling behind the front. Highs still forecast in the low to mid 80s on Saturday, with isolated to scattered onshore moving showers possible through the weekend.

Marine
Tonight...Poor boating conditions will persist over much of the waters into this evening and offshore overnight as seas linger up to 6 feet. S/SE winds around 10-15 knots will continue south of the Cape this evening, with speeds decreasing late tonight. Will maintain exercise caution headlines for the adjacent Atlantic, except nearshore Volusia waters this evening, with these headlines then likely to continue offshore after midnight.

Mon-Thu...E/SE winds up to 10-15 knots will generally prevail over the waters through Wed, becoming more southerly Thursday as Atlantic ridge axis slips south of the local waters ahead of a cold front. Seas on Monday morning will subside and remain around 3-5 feet into early-mid week.

Hydrology
The latest forecast has the Saint Johns River at Astor continuing a slow decrease within Minor Flood Stage through the upcoming week. Elsewhere, the Saint Johns River at Sanford and near Lake Harney is forecast to stay within Action Stage, while at DeLand the river is forecast to continue below Action Stage. Refer to daily Flood Statements and River Statements from NWS Melbourne for the latest river levels and forecasts.

NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None.