Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt Late This Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Becoming Se 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
705am EDT Sunday September 22 2019
Surface high pressure remains anchored off the coast of North Carolina today. A weak cold front will push across the area Monday night. High pressure returns Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
As of 700am EDT Sunday... Morning upper air analysis shows ridging centered from the Deep South to the Carolinas with troughing centered from the Hudson bay to the far northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure was located from the Outer Banks to a few hundred miles off the coast of NC. It is mostly clear across the area, with FEW-SCT mid-level clouds from the Lower MD Ern Shore to SE VA. Temperatures were mainly in the 60s, with the coolest readings over southern VA/NE NC (as these areas are closer to the high). The area of high pressure becomes centered offshore today, with increasing S-SW flow across the area. While low-level thicknesses will be slightly higher than they were yesterday, dew points will also be a bit higher. Regardless, a very warm/hot day ahead with highs in the low 90s inland/mid-upper 80s closer to the coast. Lee troughing again develops across the mountains of VA this afternoon. and isolated showers/tstms will likely develop in the vicinity of the lee trough (well W of the CWA), with just FEW-SCT CU over much of the area. Cannot completely rule out a stray shower over the VA Piedmont/central VA this afternoon (some of the 00z/22 HREF members are highlighting this potential)...but have no mention of precipitation in the forecast (PoPs are aob 10% from 18-00z). Mostly clear, dry, and mild tonight with light S-SW flow. Lows in the low-mid 60s over southern VA/inland NE NC with mid-upper 60s N of I-64.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
As of 345am EDT Sunday... On Monday, the area of surface high pressure becomes elongated ENE- WSW from the warning Atlantic to the SE CONUS while upper level ridging gets suppressed to the S (from TX to GA). At the same time, the aforementioned upper trough moves E from Lake Superior to southern ON/QC as the trailing cold front approaches the local area. Another very warm/hot day expected on Monday w/ SW winds and partly to mostly sunny conditions. Probability of Precipitation remain aob 10% through 21z with highs in the low 90s inland/upper 80s at the coast. Forecast dew points Monday afternoon are only in the upper 50s W of I-95, with mid 60s closer to the coast.
The cold front will be entering the mountains Monday afternoon which may throw a bit more significant cloudiness into the Piedmont by late in the day. There is a slight chance of a shower across the NW Piedmont after 21z Mon. The (weakening) front is forecast to cross the area from NW to SE Monday night. The best upper level dynamics will stay well to our N as the front crosses the CWA. In addition, dew points will be lower when compared to our typical summer FROPAs (leading to marginal instability at best). Therefore, have confined any mention of thunder to the Ern Shore (from 00-06z). Have maintained 20-30% PoPs...highest N/NE (for mainly showers). Kept Probability of Precipitation aob 14% in most areas S of I-64/west of I-95 (and also interior NE NC). Lows Monday night range from around 60F NW to the upper 60s SE.
Clearing out and not warm nor as humid Tuesday as winds turn NW ahead of weak surface high pressure building E through the OH Valley. Highs mainly in the low 80s, with some upper 70s possible on the Ern Shore. Clear skies and light winds expected Tuesday night as the high becomes centered just W of the CWA. Cooler with lows in the mid-upper 50s inland/low 60s near the immediate coast.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
As of 150pm EDT Saturday... Other than a small opportunity for isolated SHRAs-tstms w/ a (weakening) cold front Thu...dry weather and temperatures averaging aoa normal will prevail through the extended forecast period.
Highs Wednesday min the u70s E to 80-85F inland...mainly 85-90F Thu...in the l80s at the coast and m80s inland then from 80-85F at the coast to the m-u80s inland Sat. Lows in the m50s-l60s Tuesday night...l-m60s Wednesday night and m-u60s Thu and Fri nights.
As of 350am EDT Sunday... Surface high pressure will remain centered off the NC coast today/tonight and will gradually weaken while moving farther offshore on Monday. No headlines today with winds currently around 10 kt from the W/SW and 1-2 ft waves in the Bay with coastal seas 3-4 ft. Winds are expected to shift more to a southerly direction this afternoon in response to another lee trough developing in the Piedmont. The winds are also likely to increase to ~15kt in the Bay and 15-20kt over the coastal waters by late afternoon and especially late tonight into Monday. Wind gusts may occasionally reach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) threshold for oceans zones off the Maryland coast (25 kt) and in the Chesapeake Bay (20kt) late tonight through Monday morning. Decided to refrain from raising any headlines as this event will be very marginal though later shifts may need to issue a short fused SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for some of the area if winds gust consistently in the Bay at 20kt+ and for seas out near 20NM reaching 5 ft for the northern coastal waters. In any event, seas will average 3-4 ft S and 4-5 ft N by Monday with waves in the Bay building to 2-3 ft.
A cold front will approach the area from the NW late Monday night and cross the region early Tuesday morning. Winds will shift to the NW and briefly increase to 15-20 kt with higher gusts behind the front as deeper mixing develops with a drier/cooler airmass moving in from the N. Winds should then decrease to N/NW 5-10 kt by Tuesday afternoon. A modest secondary surge of NW winds may develop Tuesday evening before winds diminish Wed am. Winds will remain light and variable Wednesday as the surface high moves slowly off our coast. Winds will once again turn south on Thursday as a front approaches the area once again at the end of the week.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.