Marine Weather Net

Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

TUE

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ450 Forecast Issued: 856 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt Late This Evening And Overnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 4 Seconds. Scattered Flurries Late This Evening.
Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 4 Seconds.
Tue Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Sw Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 4 Seconds.
Wed...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. S Swell 2 To 4 Ft At 5 Seconds.
Wed Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. S Swell 2 To 3 Ft At 5 Seconds, Becoming Nw 3 To 6 Ft At 4 Seconds After Midnight.
Thu...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Nw Swell 2 To 5 Ft At 4 Seconds.
Thu Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Nw Swell Around 2 Ft At 3 Seconds In The Evening.
Fri...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain Through The Night.
Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Building To 9 To 12 Ft In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Subsiding To 6 To 9 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
944pm EDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Synopsis
A reinforcing cold front moves offshore overnight. Several upper level disturbances and cold fronts will pass through the region this week as surface high pressure builds to the west. Developing low pressure approaches for the end of the week and weekend.

Near Term - Through Tuesday
Weak reinforcing cold front moving across the region this evening has produced some isolated flurries across the area near ans northwest of I-95. Latest radar trends indicate this activity is beginning to wane, and this trend should continue into tonight. The exception may be areas north of I-78, where the latest hi-res guidance indicate a few more light showers or flurries are possible overnight. Cold advection will continue overnight. The mid-level cloud cover has begun to scatter out as of 10 PM, however would not be surprised in some clouds persist overnight moreso than currently forecast. Dry, colder air mass builds in behind the front overnight with temps dropping near or below freezing region- wide, accompanied by a persistent west to northwest wind, resulting in wind chills deep into the 20s for most and into the lower teens in the Poconos.

Will have some sun to start on Tuesday, but clouds then increase quickly as warm advection gets underway ahead of the next system. The combination of the cold air mass and return of clouds will keep temps down on Tuesday, with few locations managing to reach 50. Westerly winds will remain gusty as well much of the day near 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible. By late afternoon, there could be enough moisture advection to cause a few flurries or snow showers to develop in the Poconos, but the air mass should be too dry elsewhere for any precip. No accumulation expected.

Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Thursday
A weak cold front crosses through the region late Wednesday, but no impactful weather is expected aside from conditions becoming more conducive for fire spread (more information below in the Fire Weather section). With that said, breezy westerly winds will increase as the day progresses. Sustained winds near 15-25 mph are forecast with peak gusts near 35 mph possible.

Ahead of the cold front Wednesday night, weak warm air advection will allow temperatures on Wednesday to be 5 to 10 degrees higher than Tuesday. As the cold front approaches late in the day Wednesday, a few showers are possible primarily north and west of the fall line. However, any precipitation (should be mostly rain aside from the higher terrain of the southern Poconos) will be very light, with rain amounts less than a tenth of an inch.

In the wake of the front Wednesday night into Thursday, expect a relatively tight surface pressure gradient. Consequently, winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting as high as 40 mph are expected. The other impact of the cold front is that it will be considerably cooler. A widespread freeze is likely Wednesday night/Thursday morning (we remain outside of the growing season so no frost/freeze headlines are needed at this time).

Long Term - Thursday Night Through Monday
With high pressure moving offshore Friday, return flow sets up and temperatures begin to warm back up to normal levels for the end of the week and weekend.

The main feature we are watching in this period is a low developing off the coast of the southeastern U.S.. Some guidance depicts this low lifting northeast along the coast, while others depict it staying well to our south. If it follows something close to the first solution, we could see our next best chance for widespread precipitation Friday night into Saturday. However, if it stays far enough suppressed to the south, then precipitation should stay south of the region as well. Given the uncertainty, stayed close to a blend of guidance and the previous forecast in this time frame.

Regardless of the evolution of the coastal low, an upper level trough could dig southeast towards our region at the beginning of next week, which could mean another small chance (20%) for precipitation across the area.

Marine
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through Tuesday with persistent west to northwest winds 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Seas mainly 2-4 ft.

Outlook... Should be a brief lull in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, before SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions develop again late Wednesday through the day on Thursday. Winds and seas are likely to stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria Friday into Saturday.

Fire Weather
Lowering humidity levels and increasing winds over the next few afternoons could lead to fire weather concerns across our region. The lack of rainfall during the past week has led to dry fine fuels over the region, with fine fuel moisture already below 20 percent.

A few rain or snow showers are possible across the Poconos from time to time this week. Aside from that, dry conditions on tap. Although most of the area is above normal for precipitation since March 1, it has been a week since the last significant rainfall, and no significant rainfall is expected this week.

Min RH values this week will generally range from 25 to 35 percent, and stronger westerly flow occurs over the area as well with winds generally 15 to 20 mph with gusts 25 to 30 mph.

The day of highest concern looks to be Thursday, where surface dew points drop into the upper single digits to low teens. Min RH values may be as low as 20 to 25 percent, and west to northwest winds could gust as high as 30 to 35 mph. By then, it will be almost 2 weeks since the last significant rainfall.

Depending on how fast and how efficiently fine fuels dry out further will add to possible concerns for the rapid spread of any fires that may develop.

NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ430-431- 450>455.