Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to West End of Seven Mile Bridge Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northeast To East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy. Isolated Showers.|
|Tuesday...Northeast To East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast To East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy. Isolated Showers.|
|Wednesday...Northeast To East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy. Scattered Showers.|
|Wednesday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet, Except Around 4 Feet West Of The Marquesas Keys. Nearshore Waters Choppy. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy. Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...Northeast To East Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005|
308 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021
A weakening stationary front over the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters will gradually dissipate over the next few days. Meanwhile, a robust high pressure ridge will build over the southeastern United States and Florida. The ridge will help maintain fresh northeast to east breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters tonight through Thursday, with east breezes likely to diminish some by the weekend.
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of October 16...
- 29 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
- 18 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
- 16 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
- 18 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
- 23 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
- 19 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
- 13 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
- 7 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Key West FL
307pm EDT Monday Oct 18 2021
Fresh northeast to east breezes are blowing across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters this afternoon. Skies across the archipelago range from mostly sunny over the upper Keys to partly cloudy in the lower Keys. After a few morning downpours in some lower Keys communities (including Key West), isolated showers have shifted west and south of the islands. Mean sea level pressures have increased 1-2 millibars during the last 24 hours, indicative of the increasing influence of a high pressure cell currently centered over the Tennessee Valley. A disintegrating stationary front extends from the northern Bahamas westward over southern Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This feature is associated with a diffuse baroclinic zone and a remnant plume of deeper moisture.
On the large scale, a moderate-amplitude progressive upper flow pattern prevails across North America, with a short-wave ridge over the central United States and a trough over the western North Atlantic. The ridge supports a lower-tropospheric anticyclone centered over the Tennessee Valley. During the next few days, the ridge and associated low-level anticyclone will shift gradually eastward. This evolution will result in slowly veering low-level flow, a gradual deepening of the moist layer, and eventually, increasingly confluent near-surface air trajectories. however, in the short range, a plume of modified continental air should filter in to the Florida Keys, resulting on a noticeable air mass change, lower dewpoint temperatures, and a 36-hour period of rain- free weather. Beginning about Wednesday, sky cover and rain chances will increase, with thunderstorms possible by later Wednesday night. A wetter and more unsettled pattern looks likely during the Thursday-Saturday time frame, with seasonable conditions thereafter.
We will be discontinuing the Small Craft Advisory in effect for Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key, as well as the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico beyond five fathoms. However, small craft should exercise caution in all Florida Keys coastal waters as northeast to east winds are expected to remain sustained between 15 and 20 knots for the next few days.
In 1944, a Hurricane moved north off of Cuba, passing over the Dry Tortugas where the minimum pressure was 28.02" and Tropical Storm force winds were reported for 72 hours, with winds exceeding 120 mph for two hours. In Key West, the minimum pressure was 29.14" with a peak wind of 56 mph. In 1841, a Hurricane passed just west of Key West on the 18th-19th grounding many ships, especially at Mango Key 9 mi east of Key West.
NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory in effect for GMZ042-GMZ052-GMZ072- GMZ033-GMZ034 will be discontinued shortly.