Biscayne Bay Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. A Moderate Chop. Showers With Tstms Likely. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Light Chop. Showers With Tstms Likely. |
| Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Smooth. |
| Wed Night Through Fri...Se Winds 5 Kt. Smooth. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 203pm EDT Monday May 12 2025 .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1222pm EDT Monday May 12 2025 As the first wave of heavy rainfall has pushed offshore into the Atlantic waters, most of South Florida remains in lull in activity heading into the early afternoon hours. Moisture still remains abundant over the area and PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will remain high ranging between 2.0 and 2.2 inches through the early evening hours. Looking at the latest visible satellite imagery, some breaks in the clouds are occurring to the southwest and this trend will continue especially along and south of Alligator Alley through the mid afternoon hours. These breaks in the cloud cover will allow for the potential for additional destabilization especially during peak heating hours where CAPE Values could range between 2000 to 2500 J/kg. This will allow for the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms across the region as the afternoon progresses. As far as strong to severe thunderstorm development is concerned, the main question will be if enough destabilization could take place after this mornings round of widespread rain to be supportive of stronger storm development. The latest CAMs are still showing signals that there will be enough heating, especially across the eastern areas to support thunderstorms with strong gusty winds later this afternoon into the evening hours. With an abundance of deep layer moisture remaining in place, showers and thunderstorms will be able to achieve high rainfall rates especially heading into the late afternoon and early evening hours. This will allow for the potential for additional flooding to continue into the evening hours as multiple rounds of heavy downpours will still be possible especially in the metro areas where some flooding has occurred earlier in the day. The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast forecast still seems to be on track as a general 2 to 4 inches fell over the east coast metro areas with the first round of rain through the early morning hours and 1 to 3 inches have fallen along the Gulf coast. With the potential for more heavy rainfall especially across the east coast metro areas, this could produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain in general with localized higher amounts of up to 5 inches where training of the stronger thunderstorms occur. During the late evening and into the overnight hours, the frontal boundary will finally push offshore into the western Atlantic and some drier air will start to push in behind it allowing for rainfall to gradually diminish overnight. As high pressure builds back into the region on Tuesday, drier air will start to build back into the region from the northwest. While this drier air will bring clearing to Southwest Florida as the day progresses, lingering moisture will be slow to clear out of the eastern half of the region as the front remains just off to the east. This lingering moisture will be enough to support the development of another round of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours as peak diurnal heating will increase instability over these areas. With these areas being saturated from heavy rainfall today, any additional heavy downpours on Tuesday will create the potential for additional flooding. With less cloud cover on Tuesday, high temperatures will be able to rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas. Long Term (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 257am EDT Monday May 12 2025 Surface high pressure and mid-level ridging will begin to build over the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, ushering in a prolonged period of dry and hot weather for South Florida. Generally southerly flow will advect an exceptionally dry air mass over the region through the latter half of the week, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) dropping below an inch, well below the 10th percentile for this time of the year. With subsidence helping to limit cloud coverage and any convective development, temperatures will gradually warm up through the extended period. Highs could peak in the upper 80s and lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday before rising into the mid to upper 90s over the weekend. Heat indices will climb over the weekend, potentially reaching the triple digits across the southwest/interior Florida on Saturday and Sunday. Marine Issued at 1222pm EDT Monday May 12 2025 Moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will continue across the Atlantic waters for this afternoon before become more southerly tonight. South to southwesterly winds already in place over the Gulf waters will continue through Tuesday. Winds will gradually diminish across all local waters on Tuesday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across all local waters through the evening hours. Strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and waterspouts are possible with the strongest storms through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms could linger across the Atlantic waters into Tuesday. Beaches Issued at 1222pm EDT Monday May 12 2025 A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches as a persistent onshore flow continues. The risk of rip currents may remain elevated across the Atlantic Coast beaches through Tuesday. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. High Rip Current Risk until 8pm EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. |
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