Biscayne Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...E Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Tonight...E Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Thu...E Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Thu Night...E Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Fri And Fri Night...E Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Sat...E Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Tstms In The Morning. Showers. Tstms Likely.|
|Sat Night And Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
241pm EDT Wednesday September 27 2023
...New Long Term
.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1232pm EDT Wednesday September 27 2023
South FL will remain unsettled through Thursday as a frontal boundary remains across northern FL and low level SE flow continues to pump in rich moisture. Morning 12Z sounding showed a PWAT (Precipitable Water) value of 2.42 inches with the column nearly saturated through 500 mb. HREF shows similar PWAT (Precipitable Water) values remaining across the area through Thursday. Probability of Precipitation this afternoon/evening and again on Thursday will remain above climatological norms with numerous showers and storms across the area. With the high PWAT (Precipitable Water) values, storms will be capable of high rainfall rates, thus localized urban flooding will remain a threat. WPC has much of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rain both today and Thursday. Cloud cover this morning helped to keep the atmosphere a bit more stable, but breaks in the clouds this afternoon should help de-stabilize things quickly. While severe weather is not the primary concern, a few stronger storms can't be ruled out with strong wind gusts the primary threat.
High temps today and Thursday will generally be in the upper 80s, and low temps tonight will range from the lower 70s around the lake to mid and upper 70s elsewhere.
(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 139pm EDT Wednesday September 27 2023
The unsettled pattern will continue through the end of the week and into the first part of the upcoming weekend as we remain on the warm/moist side of the nearly stationary boundary to our north, and weak synoptic ascent remains present over the area downstream from troughing over the GOM. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will remain 2.1-2.3 inches through Saturday with synoptic southeasterly flow generally resulting in the storm focus shifting north and west diurnally. Naturally in this regime, heavy rainfall and flooding will remain a concern, although at this range pinpointing specific impacts/risks remain difficult as more mesoscale factors such as cloud cover, convectively-enhanced shortwaves, and mesoscale boundaries haven't come into focus.
The pattern shifts Sunday into early next week as the flow trends more NErly and a considerably drier airmass (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) < 1.5 inches) pivots into the area by Monday. Sunday likely remains fairly unsettled as a potent shortwave pivots into South Florida, and the moisture boundary approaches the area. Some drying south to north then looks likely on Monday with rain chances finally decreasing into the Chance range (40-50%) in the drier airmass on Tuesday.
High temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to near 90 through most of the extended period with lows mostly in the mid to upper 70s, although some modest cooling is possible early next week as the drier air filters in.
Issued at 1232pm EDT Wednesday September 27 2023
Generally light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail through the end of the week as high pressure is positioned north of the area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend which could result in locally hazardous marine conditions. Seas 2 ft or less today increasing to 2- 4 ft in the Atlantic by the end of the week as northerly swell increases due to a system off the SE coast.
Issued at 1232pm EDT Wednesday September 27 2023
A high risk of rip currents will continue for the Palm Beach County beaches through Thursday evening with a moderate risk for the Broward County and Miami-Dade County beaches. An elevated risk of rip currents is likely to persist for the Atlantic beaches through at least late week as onshore (easterly) flow persists. Minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide cycles this week along the Atlantic coast this week due to King Tides. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the Atlantic coast of South Florida through at least Thursday evening.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168.