Biscayne Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Light Chop. |
| Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Light Chop. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Light Chop. |
| Tue...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Light Chop. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Light Chop. |
| Wed And Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Tstms. |
| Thu Through Fri...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 134am EDT Monday Jun 29 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 234pm EDT Sunday Jun 28 2026 Isolated to scattered showers have been moving onshore over the Broward and Palm Beach metros during the course of the morning and early afternoon. However, thunderstorm activity for the rest of the afternoon to early evening will focus over interior and southwest Florida as the Atlantic sea-breeze continues to push inland under a more dominant east-southeast flow. The 12Z MFL sounding showed a pretty moist environment, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of 1.9 inches. But recent aircraft sounding profiles from KMIA and KRSW indicate that moisture may be on the downtrend, which could be the influence of the approaching Saharan Air Layer (SAL), which is mostly over the Carribean Sea at this time. With mid-level high pressure squarely over Florida, little to no shear, and surface highs over the Atlantic and Gulf, forcing will be lacking. Most of the stronger storm activity for today will focus along the Gulf breeze in southwest Florida, where steep low level lapse rates should contribute to some more robust convection. Some drier air aloft and weaker mid- level lapse rates will hinder thunderstorm growth, but with ample DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, if a few cores were to get elevated, a few strong downdraft winds may be a concern. Overall, the main threats will be frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours of 2 to 3 inches. Model forecast soundings indicate that the drier air associated with the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) will infiltrate the region tomorrow. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will drop to below average for this time of year and mid-level RH looks to drop below 50%. As a result, Probability of Precipitation for tomorrow afternoon have continued to tank, with only about a 20% to 30% chance at most along the Gulf breeze in southwest Florida. Similar to the last few days, the dominant wind regime will remain out of the southeast at 10 to 15 kts, pushing the Atlantic sea-breeze further inland and keeping eastern areas mostly dry and sunny. Heat will continue to be one of the primary concerns over the next few days, with widespread to Moderate to Major HeatRisk across all urban locations. The more dominant easterly flow will allow for warmer temperatures to focus along southwest Florida, but a few isolated locations in Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach may see heat indices near 105 F. Upper level ridging will continue to strengthen over the northern Gulf on Monday, with continued WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) from southeast flow. Apparent temperatures look to climb 3 to 4 degrees higher for Monday, with probabilities of apparent temperatures greater than 105 F being greater than 80% for parts of the Naples metro. The issuance of a Heat Advisory is looking increasing likely for Collier County, but will punt the decision off to the next shift for further analysis. Regardless, these conditions will affect anyone without proper cooling and hydration. There will also be little relief overnight, with lows in the upper 70s and low 80s. Long Term (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 410am EDT Sunday Jun 28 2026 The drier weather won't last long with guidance show a developing low pressure system just east of the Carolinas, which sends a weak frontal boundary into the northern half of the Florida peninsula late Monday into Tuesday. The boundary will slowly drift southward through the end of the work week, steadily raising chances of rain and thunderstorms. Highest chances of rain are expected from Wednesday through Saturday with highest Probability of Precipitation in the 80% range each afternoon as deeper moisture filters into the area. But even with the approaching frontal boundary, pressure gradients should remain relaxed enough to keep winds generally light to moderate, and allow for afternoon sea breezes to develop. Early afternoon convection will likely be driven by the sea breeze boundaries pushing inland. Outflow boundary collisions will likely drive late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms, which will continue to favor interior areas. But some storms may either develop over coastal metro areas early in the afternoon, or drift into them later in the day or in the early evening hours. HeatRisk at the Moderate to Major level will continue to be the main concern each day. The situation will continue to be closely monitored in case a Heat Advisory becomes necessary. Expect afternoon highs to keep reaching the low-mid 90s each day, with a few upper 90s certainly possible, mainly over interior and west coast locations. Marine Issued at 410am EDT Sunday Jun 28 2026 High pressure remains in control of the region through Monday with light to moderate SSE winds over the Atlantic waters, becoming SSW over the Gulf waters with afternoon sea breezes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop over coastal areas and move over land at times during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Increasing thunderstorm activity is possible for the second half of the work week as a frontal boundary reaches central Florida. Thunderstorms may produce locally strong winds and rough seas. Seas are generally expected to remain in the 2-3 feet range or less outside of any thunderstorm activity. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. |
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