Biscayne Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...East Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Tuesday...East Northeast Winds 10 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy.|
|Tuesday Night...East Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday...East Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...East Winds 10 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...East Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...East Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...East Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
| AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
406 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021
A breezy northeasterly flow will continue over the Atlantic and Gulf waters creating hazardous marine conditions the middle of the week. The seas will slowly begin to subside from 6 feet this afternoon to 4 feet or less by end of the week over the Atlantic waters and remain 4 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Chances of showers and thunderstorms start to increase across the local waters for the second half of the week and into the upcoming weekend.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Oct 16, 2021 at 1200 UTC...
- 12 nautical miles southeast of Fowey Rocks.
- 20 nautical miles east southeast of Port Everglades.
- 13 nautical miles east northeast of Lake Worth.
- 12 nautical miles east northeast of Jupiter Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL
746pm EDT Monday Oct 18 2021
High pressure will remain over the Southeastern United States as the frontal boundary remains nearly stationary over the Florida Straits tonight. This will keep the pressure gradient in place over South Florida leading to a northeast wind flow with breezy conditions over the local waters. Therefore, the SCEC will continue.nue for most of South Florida waters tonight, except for Lake Okeechobee where it will only be 10 to 15 knots tonight. The weather will also remain dry tonight over South Florida.
Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned.
(Issued 310pm EDT Monday Oct 18 2021)
Short Term (Today through Tuesday):
High pressure builds back in at the surface in wake of the front permitting a breezy northerly to northeasterly flow to persist. The drier air will allow temperatures over portions of inland Southwest Florida to dip into the mid 60s tonight with upper 60s to mid 70s elsewhere. The short term period should be generally dry except for the far southeastern portions of the area where the frontal boundary and remnant moisture could linger.
The high pressure settles eastward on Tuesday keeping the moisture to the south and allowing for the wind to become increasingly easterly. Some portions of South Florida could warm a degree or two compared to Monday but in general the taste of dry season should remain across the region. Gusty winds are possible over the eastern portions of the peninsula but friction should help reduce wind speeds inland and across Southwest Florida on Tuesday.
Long Term - Tuesday Night through Sunday
Models show mainly mid level ridging in place for the start of the long term, while the remnants of a former frontal boundary linger around the Florida Keys. Drier air aloft will be in place across SoFlo through at least mid week as high pressure dominates most of the E CONUS. Also, pressure gradients between the high and the aforementioned decaying boundary will increase a little, resulting in periods of E/NE breezy winds. The leftovers of the stationary boundary to our south will keep enough lingering low level moisture across SoFlo, with a slight chance of showers continuing through around Wednesday.
Global models suggest having an area of enhanced moisture, associated with the remnants of the decaying front to our south, gradually retrograding northward during the second half of the work week. They also suggest increasing divergence aloft by the weekend, which may add a little more lifting for higher storm tops. This synoptic scenario may allow for another surge in mid level moisture, and increasing chances of showers and stronger thunderstorms for the end of the long term period.
Afternoon highs are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s across the east coast metro areas, and in the upper 80s to around 90 across interior sections.
Hazardous conditions expected in the Atlantic waters to start the week. Winds will remain elevated through at least mid week with winds and seas will gradually subsiding late in the week. Easterly wind surges are possible, particularly over the unsheltered outer waters.
An elevated risk of rip currents is forecast to remain through most of the week with rip current statements likely needed due to the high risk most days. As we approach the next full moon, persistent easterly flow could contribute to higher-than-predicted tide levels along the Atlantic coast this week.
AVIATION (18z TAFs)... Dry VFR with gusty northeasterly to easterly winds through the period. Winds may lighten a bit overnight before picking back up on Tuesday morning.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.