Biscayne Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...East Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Friday...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Showers Likely.|
|Friday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...North Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Sunday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Sunday Night...North Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.|
|Monday...North Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Light Showers In The Afternoon.|
AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
955 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019
A cold front stalled over the area will keep periods of showers in the forecast for today into Friday. A low pressure system is expected to begin developing later today over the eastern Gulf and move east northeast across Central or Northern Florida tonight. This system will allow for a second cold front to move through the area Friday night bringing drier weather to the region this weekend.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Seas of 7 or more feet are possible through late tonight.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Nov 14, 2019 at 1200 UTC...
- 8 nautical miles northeast of Fowey Rocks.
- 7 nautical miles east of Port Everglades.
- 9 nautical miles southeast of Lake Worth.
- 11 nautical miles southeast of Jupiter Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...CORRECTED National Weather Service Miami FL
943am EST Thu Nov 14 2019
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS an
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECTEAST COAST BEACHES... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC WATERS... A frontal boundary extending from the Naples area eastward to Fort Lauderdale area will move slowly northward today to the Lake Okeechobee region, as low pressure starts to develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the steering flow to become more southeast over South Florida this afternoon pushing the ongoing showers over Miami-Dade and Broward Counties north northwest into the northern portions of South Florida this afternoon. There could still be some showers affecting the southern areas and the west coast metro areas this afternoon. There could also be a thunderstorm or two this afternoon over South Florida, as the 500 mb temperatures will remain around -7C. Any storms that do develop will be capable of producing some gusty winds up to 50 mph especially over the Atlantic waters today.
The low should move east northeast across Central or Northern Florida tonight, as a mid to upper level trough over the Southern Gulf coast states moves east into the Southeastern United States. This will allow for a short wave to move east around the trough of low pressure and through Central Florida tonight leading to scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms to develop in the Gulf waters which should affect the west coast metro areas. Therefore, the probability of precipitation has been raised a little bit for the west coast metro areas for tonight.
There is also a High Risk of Rip Currents and Coastal Flood Statement in effect for the east coast beaches of South Florida. A Small Craft Advisory is also in effect for the Atlantic waters through this evening.
Rest of the forecast looks good at this and no other changes are planned.
.Prev /issued 628am EST Thu Nov 14 2019/
Aviation... Passing showers continue this morning over the Atlantic terminals, and over APF by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Some of the fastest showers could generate gusts to 25 kt at times. Mainly VFR should prevail, but some periods of MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) cigs/vis could accompany the heaviest showers especially between 12 and 15Z today over the southern TAF sites. Winds turn more SE today, then light and variable after 03Z tonight.
Prev /issued 402am EST Thu Nov 14 2019/
Long Term... Friday through Sunday
A notable shortwave on water vapor imagery, located over the Mexico/Texas border, will continue to progress eastward into the Gulf of Mexico while phasing with an amplifying northern stream shortwave. As a surface low develops in response near northern Florida, our second cold front of the week will slide across the region late Friday into Saturday. Southerly flow increases ahead of the boundary, allowing for deeper moisture advection into South Florida. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) should briefly rebound to near 2.0 inches and increase rain chances. While most of the activity will likely be scattered to numerous showers, upper level dynamics could be sufficient enough to provide instability for elevated convection and a few thunderstorms.
The surface cyclone and upper level trough will then depart towards the northeast through the weekend, allowing cooler and drier air to trickle into South Florida with northwesterly to northerly flow. The focus for rain chances will transition mostly across the Atlantic waters, while also gradually diminishing as the boundary pushes further away. Temperatures should drop below seasonal averages and range in the 70s to near 80 during the daytime, dipping into the low 60s along the east coast and 50s elsewhere overnight.
Monday and Wednesday... As we head into early next week, the upper level pattern will remain highly amplified. The forecast pattern will consist of troughing over the the eastern CONUS with an extension of lower heigheights aloft, the beginnings of cyclogenesis reflected at the surface, along with an attendant frontal boundary draped somewhere in the vicinity to South Florida. While it's no surprise models differ in the finer details for this portion of the period, they have trended a bit drier than previous runs. Nonetheless, model time heigheights still depict a slight uptick in moisture through portions of the atmospheric column. Coupled with favorable lift dynamics that include a vorticity maxima and right entrance region overhead, this could support the return of shower chances through at least mid-week as the next boundary pushes through the area. Have gone with a model blend between the drier GFS and more robust, wetter ECMWF. Will continue to monitor with each model iteration as the week progresses.
Temperatures should also remain near to below average for the start of the the week, with a gradual warming trend thereafter as high pressure builds back in to our north.
Marine... Seas continue to build in the Atlantic waters, possibly to around 10 feet today, especially in the Gulf stream. A Small Craft Advisory remains in affect until Friday morning for these waters, then gradually subsiding on Friday afternoon.
Another cold front reaches the area during weekend, bringing back northerly winds and increasing seas for the latter half of the weekend. Possible hazardous marine conditions may affect the
Aviation... Some gusty periods around 25kt are still possible through the mid morning hours over PBI and FXE with showers moving ashore, then subsiding for the rest of today. MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) cigs will occur intermittently with the heaviest showers, but expect bkn mid level clouds to prevail today as a frontal boundary backtracks across the area.
Beach Forecast... A high risk of rip currents continues over the Palm Beach county beaches, and a moderate risk for the rest of the east coast beaches. As the wind turns more easterly today, the enhanced risk of rip currents will continue. In addition, the spring tides continue to bring chances of minor flooding along the Atlantic coast, along with another cycle of the high tide in the morning hours.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7pm EST this evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5am EST Friday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.
Update...54/BNB Marine...17/AR Aviation...54/BNB Beach Forecast...17/AR Short Term
17/AR Long Term...11/HVN