Marine Weather Net

Biscayne Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI

SE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ630 Forecast Issued: 402 PM EDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Tonight...E Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night.
Thu...E Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Thu Night...E Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight.
Fri...E Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Fri Night...Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.
Sat...S Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...S Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop.
Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...S Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop.
Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Bay Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
219pm EDT Wednesday July 6 2022

.SHORT TERM (Rest of Today and Wednesday)... Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon. Abundant moisture associated with the northern portion of a tropical wave has moved in across the region. Precipitable water values are above 2 inches across all of South Florida. This will help lead to overall higher coverage of rainfall today. Convection will generally progress east to west across the peninsula with the southeasterly synoptic flow and dominant east coast seabreezes Main impact with storms today will be locally heavy rainfall with very efficient rain rates. This rainfall may lead to localized flooding, particularly for the western half of the peninsula and the Gulf coast. Therefore, the Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall in these areas. Convection will begin to diminsh later this evening with activity shifting to over the local waters.

For Thursday, the tropical wave will begin to exit the area with precipitable water values dropping below 2 inches but still around 1.8 inches. Convection will still be diurnally driven with sea breeze and outflow boundary dominant convection. Winds will be southeasterly with general east to west progression of convection. East coast will see showers and convection in the late morning and early afternoon with storms moving towards the interior and Gulf coast in the afternoon and evening. Main impacts will be gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall

Temperatures will be near normal in the upper 80s to low 90s across South Florida. Heat index values tomorrow will be in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.

Long Term
Thursday night through Wednesday

Strong H500 ridging remains entrenched over the SE United States, which will allow for mostly E/SE deep-layer winds to prevail across the region. This regime should result in isolated/scattered convection over the east coast in the morning, and scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms for the interior and west coast for the afternoon and evening hours. The nature of the environment may allow for a few strong to possibly low-end severe thunderstorms for the western half of the region, though the threat remains localized and dependent on mesoscale environment. Localized flooding due to stagnant/slow-moving storms will be the primary hazard for locations, especially those that are low-lying and/or recently soaked.

By Saturday/Sunday, a stationary boundary develops and stalls near the panhandle region. This should allow for moisture to congeal. and will favor widespread showers and thunderstorms north of the CWFA. The synoptic features remain well north of south Florida, however a further equatorward deviation of these features could promote enhanced rainfall chances for our region. At this time, climo Probability of Precipitation appear in store for much of the region, with ESE flow generally favoring the interior in terms of highest convective coverage.

Early next week, a weak upper ridge will become positioned over south Florida. This will warm temperatures aloft and thus reduce lapse rates, however a gradual southerly turning of surface winds will allow for an uptick in atmospheric moisture. This should support higher rainfall chances for the east coast next week, with higher overall Probability of Precipitation for the east coast in store. Localized flooding and lightning will be the main hazards to monitor for this period.

Marine
East to southeasterly wind flow will continue across the Atlantic and Gulf waters throughout most of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day over the local South Florida waters.

Beaches

An elevated risk of rip currents will remain through the week along the east coast beaches as east to southeasterly flow continues.

NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.