Marine Weather Net

Biscayne Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

E
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUNDAY

ESE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY

SE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ630 Forecast Issued: 402 PM EDT Sat May 08 2021

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
Tonight...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Showers Through The Night.
Sunday...East Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Monday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.
Tuesday...East Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.
Wednesday...East Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Wednesday Night...East Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Thursday...East Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Chance Of Showers. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
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AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm
402 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic waters will continue to support moderate easterly to southeasterly winds across the South Florida waters through the forecast dominant period. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast each day, especially across the Atlantic waters where locally gusty winds and higher seas will be possible.

Gulf Stream Hazards: None
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of May 08, 2021 at 1200 UTC...
- 13 nautical miles east of Fowey Rocks.
- 18 nautical miles east of Port Everglades.
- 11 nautical miles east northeast of Lake Worth.
- 11 nautical miles northeast of Jupiter Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
408pm EDT Sat May 8 2021

Short Term
Today and Sunday... The upper level pattern should deamplify through the period as troughing aloft departs from the Eastern Seaboard. This will allow for quasi-zonal flow to evolve with gradually building mid-level heigheights across the region. The surface front which cleared our area recently should remain stalled across the Florida Straits and western Cuba before gradually dissipating. While drier air will filter into northern portions of our area, considerable low-level moisture will remain across far southern/eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula. As such, given the abundant low-level moisture and prevailing easterly flow, showers should develop both today and Sunday, with only small chances for a storm. The initial late night/early morning focus should remain over the southern Atlantic waters before the prevailing easterly wind component/Atlantic breeze forces the best chances towards interior areas during the afternoons. The stronger easterly breeze should favor highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s for most areas, although the east coast beaches should remain in the lower 80s. Lows tonight should dip into the mid 60s over the northern Everglades and Lake region, with lower to mid 70s along the east coast.

Long Term
Sunday evening through Friday night... Overall, 500mb flow looks fairly zonal over the area through Wednesday. There may be some weak shortwaves that move through, but no substantial ridging or troughing through the period. Also, at the surface, a Bermuda high builds once again. This may push the tail end of a front back to the north, possibly slightly enhancing the potential for convection on Sunday.

Beyond Sunday, the surface ridge is not as strong as it has been, which may allow for more of a wet season type of pattern to emerge this week. Definitely looks to be a transition type of pattern, with the main triggers this week being diurnal heating and the sea/lake breezes. So, each day may see some convective activity across the area, with the sea breezes being the initiating factors, then the cells being driven by outflow boundaries. This makes it very difficult to pinpoint a specific area, therefore have chance of convection across most of the area in the forecast.

By late Wednesday, a 500mb trough approaches the area. This should induce the development of weak low pressure at the surface for the overnight hours. Also, an area of moisture is forecast to advect into the region. All this looks to add up for enhanced chances of convective activity for Wednesday night across the entire peninsula.

By Thursday, the GFS and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) both show cyclogenesis finally occurs just to our northeast, and a cold front forms near the area, which keeps the chances for convection going through the day and into Thursday evening. While strong thunderstorms are always a concern this time of year, the prolonged chances of rain may result in a concern for some flooding, especially in the metro areas of South Florida, at least with the GFS solution. The ECMWF is still somewhat drier, but is somewhat wetter than yesterday run. It is still very early, and the forecast could change drastically, it is definitely something to watch for.

Marine
Bouts of cautionary conditions are possible for the Atlantic and Gulf waters this weekend as breezy easterly winds around 15 to 20 kt. Otherwise scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible each day.

.BEACHES... There is a high rip current risk for the Atlantic beaches today. An enhanced rip current risk should continue for the Atlantic beaches into early next week with an onshore wind regime.

NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8pm EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.