Biscayne Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...East Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Thursday...East Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Friday...East Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Saturday...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...North Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday...North Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.|
| AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
940 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020
High pressure over the Southeast United States tonight will gradually move east to over the western Atlantic Thursday night and Friday. A cold front is expected to move through the local waters Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, followed by a second front Sunday night and Monday. Scattered showers will spread across the local waters beginning on Saturday and continue throughout most of the weekend. Wind and seas will slowly subside through the end of the week, and possibly increase again Sunday night or Monday in association with the second front's passage across our area.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Seas 6 feet overnight and Thursday.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Dec 01, 2020 at 1200 UTC...
- 4 nautical miles southeast of Fowey Rocks.
- 9 nautical miles east southeast of Port Everglades.
- 6 nautical miles east northeast of Lake Worth.
- 5 nautical miles east northeast of Jupiter Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL
1230am EST Thu Dec 3 2020
.Aviation... VFR conditions through this cycle. Generally light to moderate winds expected with the higher speeds during the day on Thursday. Wind direction will continue to veer from a northerly direction to a more easterly direction with time.
Update... Latest surface analysis has high pressure over the SE United States ridging south down the FL peninsula this evening. This position of the ridge is keeping winds from shifting fully around to the NE, as well as allowing for temperatures to fall rather quickly after sunset. Because of this, adjusted tonight's low temperatures downward about 3-5 degrees across the board to account for current trends. As the high shifts slowly east, enough of a NE component to the boundary layer wind should develop late tonight to slow the temperature fall, as well as bring some marine stratocumulus clouds onshore along the east coast.
All other forecast elements are on track for tonight and no additional changes are needed.
Prev /issued 258pm EST Wednesday Dec 2 2020/
Short Term (Rest of Today through Thursday)... High pressure across the SE CONUS will gradually slide eastward. As this occurs winds will veer from northerly to northeasterly to easterly by tomorrow. The slight change in wind direction with an easterly component will help moderate the temperatures. Overnight lows will not be as cold as they were this morning. However, temperatures will still be cooler than normal for this time of year with mid-upper 40s western Lake region, low to mid 50s interior and Gulf coast, with upper 50s and low 60s along east coast.
Thursday is much of the same with temperatures continuing to gradually warm into the mid 70s. Plenty of sunshine and dry conditions across the peninsula.
Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)... The ridge of high pressure centered off to the north will slide into the western Atlantic on Friday, however, the dry air mass will still remain in place during this time frame. With an east to southeasterly wind flow in place, the moderation in temperatures will continue as high temperatures generally range in the upper 70s to around 80 across most of South Florida.
The latest computer model guidance continues to show a closed mid level low along with a surface low moving into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. A cold front associated with this low will continue to move southward towards the region. The latest computer model runs continue to show agreement as far as keeping the best dynamics farther to the north which will limit thunderstorm development over South Florida ahead of the front on Saturday. There will be enough low level moisture in place, however, to support the chance of a few showers along and ahead of the front. Models suggest that this front will pass through the region, however, they are off on the timing a little bit as the GFS is slightly slower then the ECMWF. In any event, it looks to pass sometime later Saturday afternoon or Saturday night.
High pressure builds in behind the front for Sunday which ushers in some cooler and drier air, however, the latest computer model runs suggest a secondary cold front moving into the area Sunday night into Monday. Models are somewhat in disagreement as to how much moisture there is to work with for showers to develop out ahead of this front, however, with the drier air mass in place already from the previous front, it would tend to favor a drier frontal passage. This is what the current forecast represents with just a slight chance of showers across eastern and southern areas Sunday night.
Behind this front, another reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air moves into South Florida as another area of high pressure builds into the region later on Monday and into the middle portion of next week.
Marine... Marine conditions continue to gradually improve with winds becoming more northeasterly and easterly by tomorrow. Dry conditions across the region. A cold front will approach the region bringing increased rain chances for the end of the week.
Beach Forecast... There is moderate risk of rip currents for east coast beaches the rest of today. With the winds becoming easterly and onshore tomorrow. Therefore, there will be a high risk of rip currents for the east coast beaches tomorrow.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 5am EST early this morning through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.