Biscayne Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers.|
|Tonight...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest 10 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Bay Waters Choppy. Showers Likely Late In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Saturday Night...North Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Sunday...North Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.|
|Monday Night...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Slight Chance Of Light Showers.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Light Showers.|
AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
1011 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2019
Winds decrease to around 10kt today shifting to a south southwest direction. The winds will then become northwest tonight and increase to breezy conditions behind the passage of a cold front. Breezy conditions should continue over the local waters of South Florida on Saturday, which will bring the Atlantic seas into the 7-11 feet range with occasional 13 feet. Also, a northeast swell arrives during the weekend for the Atlantic waters, which by Sunday will likely reach the 6-9 feet range and up to 10 feet at times for the Palm Beach Atlantic waters.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Seas building from 2 to 3 feet tonight to 7 to 10 feet late this weekend up to 11 feet in Palm Beach Atlantic waters.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Nov 14, 2019 at 1200 UTC...
- 8 nautical miles northeast of Fowey Rocks.
- 7 nautical miles east of Port Everglades.
- 9 nautical miles southeast of Lake Worth.
- 11 nautical miles southeast of Jupiter Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
113pm EST Fri Nov 15 2019
.Aviation... Showers and associated MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) CIGS/VIS are forecast to continue at KAPF throughout majority of the day today with brief periods of IFR cond. in TSRA. Convection is becoming better organized over the interior and forecast to advect towards the ENE over the next several hours. These storms are forecast to be over the east coast metro by approx. 19Z, when MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) to brief bouts of IFR cond. are probable throughout this afternoon. Storms are not forecast to clear out until approx. 00Z tonight, when lingering VCSH will be possible at all east coast sites, although VFR cond. should prevail.
.Prev /issued 956am EST Fri Nov 15 2019/
..WET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY... ..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY... ..COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING... Update... Low pressure just of the NE Florida coast this morning will continue to move slowly northeast and strengthen off the coast of the Carolina's tonight. This will allow for a cold front associated with the low over Central Florida to move southward this afternoon and through South Florida tonight. This weather pattern will allow for deeper tropical moisture to work into South Florida from the south on the south southwest wind flow today before a drying trend develops tonight from north to south with the passage of the cold front. Therefore, scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms are possible across South Florida today shifting from the western areas this morning to the eastern areas this afternoon.
The PWAT (Precipitable Water) values this morning from the MIA sounding was around 1.8 inches and is forecast by the short range models to increase to around 2 to 2.1 inches this afternoon. These PWAT (Precipitable Water) values are close to the maximum PWAT (Precipitable Water) values for this time of year over South Florida. Therefore, there could be some minor street flooding in the low lying and poorly drain areas with the heaviest showers and thunderstorms today.
There is still a small northeast swell affecting the Atlantic waters of Palm Beach County this morning, but these swells should continue to dissipate through the afternoon hours. Therefore, a High Risk of Rip Currents will continue for the beaches of Palm Beach County, while rest of the east coast beaches of South Florida remain in a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.
The tides are still running about 1 foot above the normal tide levels of for this time of year. The higher than normal tides should continue to slowly decrease through tonight, but could still cause some minor flooding conditions at times surrounding high tides. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Statement will be extended through this evening.
Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned.
Prev /issued 406am EST Fri Nov 15 2019/
Short Term(Today-tonight): a somewhat complicated synoptic scenario continues to unfold across the region. Latest WPC surface analyses depicts two decaying boundaries lingering just to the south and north of SoFlo, while a low developing over the SE Gulf should migrate northward to near the Tampa bay area later today and re-energize the boundary to our north. The low should also transition into an open mid-level trough during the weekend.
The influence of the low is providing enhanced SRH and lapse rates over the Gulf coastal waters, which will support showers and a few storms through the morning hours for the Gulf coast. Meanwhile, the boundary to our south breaks down and its remnants merge with the boundary lingering around Central Florida, with models showing another potential low developing near the northern Florida/southern Georgia border. This will result in having a semi- continuous frontal boundary extending from the SE Gulf through the NE US seaboard, and keeping SoFlo in the warm sector today and tonight.
The overall synoptic scenario will allow for the winds to shift to a more southwest direction during the day, and west/northwest by this evening. It will also support increasing shower and storm coverage with scattered to numerous showers and storms across much of SoFlo through late this afternoon, and tapering off some from north to south tonight as drier air begins filtering into the area.
Long Term... Saturday through Sunday... After a rainy end to the week, a more pleasant, fall-like pattern emerges for the weekend as the surface cyclone meanders off the Carolina coast and deepens over the Gulf Stream. The position of the low, and a tightening pressure gradient, will keep South Florida under brisk northwesterly flow. This will allow for cooler and drier air to filter into the region. Temperatures should range in the 70s each afternoon and dip into the 50s overnight. Areas along the east coast could struggle to reach into the 60s Sunday night.
Monday and Thursday... To begin the week, the upper level pattern will remain highly amplified as a mid to upper level trough sweeps across the eastern CONUS. This trough should give the lingering surface low the push it needs to depart towards the northeast and relax the pressure gradient across South Florida. Rain chances then increase late Monday through Tuesday as our next frontal boundary pushes across the area. While model time heigheights still depict a slight uptick in moisture through portions of the atmospheric column, global models continue to trend drier with each run as winds look to remain out of the north to northwest. Ultimately, it will depend on how much moisture is able to return to the region as winds diminish ahead of the boundary. Thus, have gone with only a slight chance of rain across the area during this time.
Temperatures should also remain near to below average for the start of the the week under northwesterly flow, with a gradual warming trend thereafter as high pressure settles in to our north, veering winds out the northeast by late week.
Marine... Winds decrease to around 10kt today and shift to a more west/northwest direction, then northwest by this evening and increasing to around 15kt behind a frontal boundary lifting to the north of the area. Breezy conditions should then develop by Saturday, which will bring the Atlantic seas into the 7-11 feet range with occasional 13 feet. Also, a northeast swell arrives during the weekend for the Atlantic waters, which by Sunday will likely reach the 6-9 feet range and up to 10 feet at times for the Palm Beach Atlantic waters.
Models continue to show breakers of 7 to 8 feet for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night for the beaches of Palm Beach County. Therefore, chances are increasing of having a High Surf Advisory in place for the beaches of Palm Beach County sometime this weekend.
Beach Forecast... High risk of rip currents will continue through this evening for all Palm Beach county beach. Beach conditions may again deteriorate late Sunday and into Monday as swells from a deepening surface low off the Carolina Coast arrives, potentially creating rough surf and an elevated risk for rip currents.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7pm EST this evening for FLZ168.
Update...54/BNB Marine...17/AR Aviation...18/Weinman/03/Fell Beach Forecast...17/AR Short Term
17/AR Long Term...11/HVN