Biscayne Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Tonight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers Until Late Afternoon. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. Showers Likely Late. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Light Chop. Showers Likely Early In The Evening. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers In The Late Evening And Early Morning. |
| Wed...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Smooth. A Chance Of Showers Until Early Morning. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Light Chop. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Light Chop. |
| Fri...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Smooth. |
| Fri Night...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Smooth. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 419am EST Monday Nov 2 2026 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, Marine EACHES,Hydrology .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 327am EST Monday Nov 2 2026 - Flood watch remains in effect for all of South Florida as the potential for additional heavy rainfall and flooding continues. - Minor to Moderate coastal flooding expected during times of high tide. - Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the Atlantic coast. Synopsis Issued at 327am EST Monday Nov 2 2026 Water vapor imagery and model analysis fields show an elongated shortwave extending from the southeast Gulf, through the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic where it connects in with the northern stream flow. There's very little surface reflection to this upper low, with the latest WPC surface analysis depicting high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic/NW Atlantic, with its western reaches covering much of the eastern CONUS. Locally, we remain under easterly flow at the base of the ridge with a coastal trough still established down the east coast of Florida. Additionally, an MCV (Mesoscale Cyclonic Vortice, a low-pressure center in a group of thunderstorms, that pulls winds into a circling pattern, or vortex) is likely still present across Central Florida as a result of yesterday's storms. .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 327am EST Monday Nov 2 2026 We enter another very low predictability period today with the environment primed to produce more heavy rainfall should a surface focus emerge. CAMs have struggled to identify the ongoing precip pattern and thus low confidence exists regarding their future predictions. Some of the CAMs that at least more closely resemble the ongoing pattern would suggest banding features along the east coast where upslope flow coincides with mesoscale boundaries through mid-afternoon. They also depict convection in the SE Gulf, associated with the upper low, moving across south Florida through the afternoon and evening. As the storms from the Gulf reach the east coast, a period of slow moving storms producing heavy rainfall will be possible. Forecast rain amounts look very similar to yesterday, with common amounts of 1 to 3 inches where showers and storms occur. Scattered locations around south Florida may see closer to 3 to 5 inches of rain. The more isolated high end amounts have the potential to peak around 6 to 9 inches. These amounts could accumulate rather quickly, on the order of 2 to 4 hours. The Flood Watch will continue through today and has been expanded over all of South Florida due to low confidence in where the heaviest rain will setup. As the base of the elongated trough cuts off over the SE Gulf today, it will be slow to move out of the region and likely have to wait for an approaching northern stream frontal system to nudge it through south Florida. This will likely mean a continued wet pattern through Tuesday. However, the good news is that dry mid- level air, associated with the part of the shortwave that will advect into the Atlantic, may result in lower PWATs (Precipitable Waters) and less forcing. This means an overall lower top-end to expected rain amounts. Expect common rainfall amounts on Tuesday closer to 1-2" with localized higher amounts in the 2-4" range. Not nothing, but better than Sunday and Today. It also look as though most of the rainfall on Tuesday will be confined to the east coast. Long Term (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 327am EST Monday Nov 2 2026 With the aforementioned mid-week frontal system, models are struggling with whether the shortwave cuts off and loses latitude from the northern stream. In solutions where it cuts off the shortwave it has a much slower progression across the CONUS. This will ultimately influence when/if we get frontal passage across south Florida late this week. Regardless, models tend to keep the frontal passage pretty dry, this far south, and also have very little signal for any anomalous sensible weather fields in the extended range. The slow nudge of the frontal system will displace the ridge axis further north. This will remove the direct easterly component and calm winds a bit. Both of these results mean that we'll probably have less precipitation across south Florida from mid-week onward. Marine Issued at 327am EST Monday Nov 2 2026 Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters through the early portion of the week as a fresh to strong easterly breeze remains in place combined with a lingering northeasterly swell. Across the Gulf waters, a moderate to fresh easterly breeze will continue today before gradually starting to diminish on Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across all local waters through the early portion of the week. Beaches Issued at 327am EST Monday Nov 2 2026 The onshore flow and elevated winds and seas will keep a High Risk for rip currents across Atlantic beaches well into this week. Large breakers are expected through at least this morning across Broward and Palm beaches, with a high surf advisory in effect for these locations. Higher than usual tides will also create elevated water levels near the coast. Dangerous beach and swim conditions are expected through mid-week. Hydrology Issued at 327am EST Monday Nov 2 2026 Water levels are forecast to gradually start climbing into Moderate flood stage again by tonight's high tide as we start to head closer and closer to the New Moon on Nov 9. Hopefully, by mid-week, we'll be able to remove the strong onshore wind component and pull back some of the heavy rain potential as astronomical tide levels start to rise again. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7pm EST Tuesday for FLZ168-172-173. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 7am EST this morning for FLZ168-172. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Tuesday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Tuesday for AMZ651-671. GM...None. |
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