Biscayne Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...West Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through The Night.|
|Thursday...North Northwest Winds 5 Knots Becoming South Southeast In The Afternoon. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...West Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.|
|Friday...West Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming South Southwest In The Afternoon. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...West Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
|Saturday...South Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Chance Of Showers. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Gusts Up To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...South Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.|
|Monday...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
851 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020
Generally benign boating conditions are expected across the South Florida waters over the next several days. There is a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day which could bring locally higher winds and seas.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Jul 07, 2020 at 1200 UTC...
- 17 nautical miles east southeast of Fowey Rocks. 28 nautical miles east southeast of Port Everglades. 23 nautical miles east of Lake Worth. 23 nautical miles east of Jupiter Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
736pm EDT Wednesday July 8 2020
.Aviation... Any remaining showers/storms should diminish over the next few hours, with generally quiet conditions thereafter. Light SW/W flow overnight, turning more SE for the eastern terminals Thursday afternoon as the sea breeze advances inland. Best storm chances tomorrow are over inland areas, so kept VCTS out of the TAFs for now.
.Prev /issued 212pm EDT Wednesday July 8 2020/
Short Term (Today through Thursday)... This Afternoon/Evening... Showers and thunderstorms ongoing and concentrating over the interior areas this afternoon will move slowly but tend to shift east towards the east coast metro areas in the low-mid level mean wind flow. Also worth watching is an area of showers and storms over Central Florida which is associated with the base of the eastern U.S. trough and moving SE underneath the deeper westerlies. As what is prone to happen in these type of patterns, our northern areas around Lake Okeechobee could get clipped by these storms. As described in the previous discussion, there is more than adequate moisture and surface-based instability for a few storms to reach strong levels, with gusty winds the primary hazard. In fact, the latest Storm Prediction Center mesoscale analysis shows surface- based CAPE values at or above 4000 J/kg this afternoon over virtually the entire area. The relatively slow storm motion will also increase the threat of at least minor flooding in areas where multicell clusters linger. Made no major changes to the Probability of Precipitation for this afternoon and evening, showing the highest chances over the interior/Everglades south of Alligator Alley spreading to the western suburbs of SE Florida, with a secondary maximum west of Lake Okeechobee. Gulf coast areas west of I-75 should stay dry. The convection is expected to wind down in the 8-10pm time frame, although one or two showers/storms could linger to around midnight especially if convection ends up being more vigorous/widespread than currently anticipated.
Temperatures this afternoon will be in the 90s before precipitation cools things off, and heat index values will be well over 100F most areas.
Thursday... The overall synoptic pattern remains similar to today, featuring low/mid level high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico with a ridge axis extending from the high to over the Florida Keys, and low pressure over the eastern U.S. extending down to about Lake Okeechobee. The resultant wind flow is W-NW over most of the tropospheric column. Most of the model guidance depicts the drier air over the Gulf of Mexico associated with the high pressure being advected eastward over South Florida. This may limit the amount of afternoon showers/thunderstorms compared to today, but will still keep Probability of Precipitation in the 30/40% range over the eastern 2/3rds of the peninsula where the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes will converge in the prevailing westerly flow (Gulf Coast areas remaining mostly dry). Once again, more than adequate surface-based instability and low/mid level moisture available for a few storms to reach strong levels.
Low level thickness values are forecast to be higher on Thursday, which will lead to high temperatures in the mid 90s over a large chunk of our area, including much of the east coast metro. Upper 90s are expected over the interior/Everglades regions. The slightly drier air could mix enough to the surface to lower dewpoints a touch compared to previous days, which would somewhat mitigate the heat index values. Still, we're expecting heat indices tomorrow to be around 105F most areas, topping out as high as 108F in some locations.
Long Term... Friday through Tuesday... Broad midlevel troughing will become established across the Eastern CONUS through the period, while troughing at the surface wedges itself over South Florida between high pressure over the Gulf and Atlantic waters. This will result in the extended period being characterized by a wet and fairly unsettled pattern, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Generally weak southwesterly flow will help to keep convective coverage mainly focused across the Lake Okeechobee region and eastern portions of the area.
The primary concerns with convection will be the potential for heavy rainfall with localized flooding owing to slow storm motions. The risk of flooding will increase for the east coast metro, where wet, antecedent conditions will gradually accrue from daily rounds of showers and storms. A low end damaging wind gust can't be ruled out from precipitation loading, although any occurrences should remain rather isolated.
Daytime temperatures will remain above normal with highs well into the 90s away from the coasts, and afternoon heat index readings in the 100-108 degree range. Overnight temperatures will afford little in the way of recovery from the heat with the presence of lower tropospheric moisture in place.
Marine... Outside of showers and thunderstorms, winds and seas will be mainly light through the forecast period. The influence of the disturbance/low pressure area along the eastern U.S. seaboard and a reinforcing trough over the NE Gulf of Mexico will temporarily tighten the gradient and winds will increase to around 15 knots from Saturday night to Monday mainly over the Atlantic waters. Showers and thunderstorms (with associated higher wind and seas) will increase in coverage over all local waters this weekend through early next week.
Aviation (18z TAFs)... TSRA affecting SE Florida and included a TEMPO group for MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) conditions and wind gusts generally 18z-20z to account for these storms affecting the terminals. Could see brief IFR conditions but not long enough duration to include in TAFs for now. TSRA could linger through 00z, then gradually dissipate/move offshore overnight. KAPF will remain mainly dry as storms stay inland of the terminal. Seabreezes dominate the wind flow through 00z, then
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.
Aviation...34/SPM Short TeMarine
59/RM Long Term...11/HVN