Biscayne Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...Southwest Winds 5 Knots Becoming South Southeast In The Afternoon. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
| AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
402 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021
Benign marine conditions will occur throughout the rest of the week outside of showers and thunderstorms. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Atlantic and Gulf waters each day. Expect periods of rough seas and gusty winds in and around any thunderstorm.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around any shower or thunderstorm.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Jul 27, 2021 at 1200 UTC...
- 5 nautical miles east of Fowey Rocks.
- 12 nautical miles east of Port Everglades.
- 13 nautical miles east southeast of Lake Worth.
- 9 nautical miles northeast of Jupiter Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
344pm EDT Tuesday July 27 2021
.SHORT TERM (Rest of Today and Wednesday)... Moisture remains across the area with scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Very light wind profile in the 12Z MFL sounding will cause for slow storm motion once again today. Storms will mainly develop along sea breeze and outflow boundaries this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out today with frequent to excessive lightning activity, torrential rainfall combined with slow storm motion which could lead to urban flooding, and gusty winds.
Surface high pressure ridge begins to build back in over the Atlantic with the western portion nudging into Central/South Florida with a light southeasterly wind flow. A bit of drier air to the east may help limit some convection overnight or early tomorrow morning. There is TUTT over eastern Cuba that will slowly move across the Keys or southern tip of Florida. This may help enhance the activity over the region tomorrow afternoon. The Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes will develop and push inland in the afternoon leading to scattered to numerous showers and storms. Main impacts will be frequent lightning , heavy rainfall, and strong wind gusts.
High temperatures will be in low to mid 90s with heat indices in the triple digits.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Tuesday)... Medium-range model guidance remains in good agreement, depicting continental high pressure building over the central CONUS and a subtropical ridge remaining centered over the western Atlantic waters -- with weak mid-level troughing persisting between these air masses. This large-scale pattern will generally support light deep-layer flow and slightly above average moisture content across South Florida, resulting in the daily development of east and west coast sea breeze circulations and scattered thunderstorms each day. A slight southerly component to the low-level flow will tend to focus the highest convective coverage over the interior and lake region, though weak convective inhibition will support the development of new convection along outflow boundaries which will spread into the metro areas during the afternoon and early evening hours. With very light deep-layer flow and ample low/mid- level moisture remaining in place (i.e., PWs of 1.8 to 2.0 in), isolated flooding from slow moving convection will be a concern each day -- especially across vulnerable low-lying metro areas.
By this weekend, the above mentioned subtropical ridge will continue building over the western Atlantic waters, while a mid/upper-level inverted trough and accompanying cool mid-level temperatures moves westward along the southern periphery of the ridge toward South Florida. This feature could support a brief uptick in convection across the area for early next week, though plenty of uncertainty remains regarding the details and potential impacts at this time.
Temperatures will be near normal each day, with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the middle to upper 70s.
Benign marine conditions throughout the period outside of convection, light to moderate winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Atlantic and Gulf waters each day. Expect periods of rough seas and gusty winds in and around any thunderstorm.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.