Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef, FL Out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt Late This Evening And Early Morning, Then Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt Late. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Occasionally To 11 Ft. Wave Detail: N 7 Ft At 10 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Rough In Exposed Areas. Showers And Tstms Likely. |
| Thu...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Occasionally To 11 Ft. Wave Detail: N 7 Ft At 9 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Occasionally To 11 Ft. Wave Detail: E 7 Ft At 5 Seconds And N 7 Ft At 10 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Rough In Exposed Areas. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Occasionally To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 7 Ft At 6 Seconds And N 7 Ft At 9 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Rough In Exposed Areas. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri Night Through Sat Night...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Occasionally To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 8 Ft At 7 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Rough In Exposed Areas. |
| Sun Through Mon...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: E 7 Ft At 6 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Rough In Exposed Areas. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Intracoastal Waters Rough In Exposed Areas. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 642pm EDT Wednesday April 8 2026 Issued at 225pm EDT Wednesday April 8 2026 No major changes were made to the current forecast as the forecast philosophy remains on track. While the region currently remains in a relative lull, convection will begin to refire later this afternoon and into this evening as the atmosphere continues to destabilize once again due to peak diurnal heating. Convection will also be aided not only by the surface frontal boundary stalled out just to the south of the region, but another mid level shortwave impulse will pass over the region tonight as it rounds the base of the trough. This mid level impulse could provide additional lift and instability to support the possibility of some heavy rainfall and stronger convection lasting into the evening and a portion of the overnight hours as well. Some of the CAMs and hi-res guidance are picking up on this with the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) remaining one of the more bullish solutions. With convection remaining slow moving along with the possibility of multiple storms containing heavy downpours moving over the same area, localized flooding will remain possible especially later this afternoon into this evening across the east coast. While additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be likely through tonight, localized higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches cannot be ruled out over portions of the east coast depending on if storms remain parked over a certain area or if training of showers and storms occur. .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 208am EDT Wednesday April 8 2026 A deep plume of moisture remains entrenched across the bottom half of the Peninsula along a decaying stationary boundary. The recent 0z KMFL upper air sounding shows a pretty saturated environment from top to bottom, with a precipitable water content of 1.70 inches, within the 90th percentile for this time of year. As a result, there is still moderate confidence for heavy rainfall along the Atlantic coast, where the Weather Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk of excessive rainfall and a Flood Watch is in effect through Wednesday night. Once again, the main contributor for shower activity will be coastal convergence along the Atlantic. Brisk northeasterly flow over the Gulf Stream will continue to enable moisture and frictional convergence along the Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Palm Beach metros, providing enough forcing and ascent for scattered showers to develop throughout the morning and afternoon. The HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) is once again the most bullish among hi-res guidance, showing more robust storms developing along coastal Broward and Palm Beach before sunrise. Other guidance is not as excited on strength but agree on placement along the Atlantic coast, particularly farther north near Palm Beach. The recent 0z HREF is also a little bit more bullish on Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts than the previous run, with 24 hour mean ensemble amounts between 1 and 2 inches. Once again, the worst case scenario 24 hr max amounts show pockets of 5 inches along coastal Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. However, its notable that the HREF signal for Wednesday (along with other ensembles like the REFS) is less than the signal for the Tuesday's rainfall threat, and that didn't end up playing out like many of the more bullish solutions had modeled. As a result, confidence is less for today that we will see urban flooding impacts. One reason that the Tuesday rainfall threat may have not played out as forecast is that the environment was actually much more unstable and more supportive of faster moving storms. The 18z Tuesday sounding didn't show the ideal "long and skinny" CAPE profile necessary for flooding rainfall. Instead it hinted at a much more unstable airmass with MUCAPE near 2700 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates of 7 C/km. There was also brisk westerly flow aloft and plenty of shear, along with additional forcing from a mid-level shortwave. As a result, storms moved from west to east a little bit quicker across the metro during the afternoon and were more of a severe threat than a heavy rainfall threat (as shown by the strong gust and wind damage LSRs). This flow aloft may have also played a role in why the coastal convergent showers didn't stay pinned along the shoreline as previously modeled. Now as for today's rainfall threat: Looking at RAP model soundings for this afternoon, one notable thing that stands out compared to Tuesday's sounding is the weaker flow in the mid-levels and a long and skinnier CAPE profile. But, lapse rates don't look all that favorable to support deep convection, and while there is less instability than yesterday (1000 J/kg), there is still plenty for strong downpours to develop. Probably the most promising feature in the model sounding that we haven't really seen the past few days is that 1 km and 6km wind barbs will be almost inverse of each other. This means that the upwind propagation will be opposite to the surface moisture convergence, which may result in some storms being anchored in place along the coast. If this does play out, certain spots are likely to get on that upper end of 3 to 5 inches. Overall, the main concern for urban locations will be ponding water over low lying spaces and poor drainage areas. This may cause some roadways to become impassable. Outside of the rain threat, northeast winds will stay pretty breezy throughout the day on Wednesday, with gusts near 30 mph along coastal Palm Beach. Marine and beach ares will remain quite hazardous due to these strong winds. There looks to be a quick lull in wind speeds on Thursday, particularly for inland and Gulf areas. But, choppy waters will remain for the Atlantic through the end of the week due to persistent easterly flow. For Thursday, guidance continues to hint at coastal convergence showers and storms developing along the Atlantic coast counties for the early morning through afternoon. However, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) look to be on the downtrend (decreasing to a still above average 1.5 inches), and mid-level dry air starts to make its way into the region. There is still some spread among Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ensemble clusters, but the majority of members (70%) show rainfall amounts of about an inch to an inch and a half for Thursday. The other less likely solution shows 2 to 2.5 inches for upper end amounts. As a result, there is a very low risk of urban flooding concerns across the metro area on Thursday. Long Term (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 208am EDT Wednesday April 8 2026 The wet pattern that we have been enjoying (or detesting... to each their own..) will begin to break down on Friday. High pressure ridging begins to strengthen over the north Florida gulf coast starting on Friday, pushing the longwave troughing pattern east into the Atlantic. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will slowly but surely continue to decrease through the weekend and into next week as northerly flow ushers in a a drier airmass. Some isolated to scattered showers may develop on Friday while there is still some moisture convergence along the Atlantic coast. But, precipitation chances greatly decrease through the weekend as the drier and more stable air mass takes hold. By Monday, 500 mb heigheights of 590 dm will sit squarely over Florida, increasing temperatures into the mid to upper 80s areawide. The surface high over the Carolinas keeps a stout pressure gradient along the Atlantic coast, so breezy easterly winds will remain through the beginning of the week. Winds look to relax during the middle of the week as the ridge meanders overhead, but conditions will remain mostly dry and sunny. Marine Issued at 208am EDT Wednesday April 8 2026 Stronger northeast winds have begun to kick in across the area due to a stout pressure gradient driven by a 1038 mb surface high over the Mid-Atlantic coast. Winds (both coasts) and seas (east coast) will remain elevated through the entire week as strong high pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic. Small Craft Advisories will continue through Wednesday night for the Atlantic waters, Gulf waters, and Lake Okeechobee. Winds will be strongest across the waters east of Palm Beach, where gusts may be as strong as 35 kts and wave heigheights as high as 14 feet. Winds will be slightly weaker over the Lake and over the Gulf but still in the 20 to 25 kt range. There will be a brief lull in breeziness on Thursday morning, but conditions will pick up again on Thursday afternoon across both the Gulf and Atlantic. Brisk northeast flow will remain through the end of the week, particularly for the Atlantic waters where winds will still be near 25 kts on Friday. Wave heigheights will decrease back down into the 7 to 8 ft range, but due winds, Small Craft Advisories over the Atlantic have been extended through Friday. Highligheights will likely be needed through the weekend as the easterly flow pattern remains steady. Beaches Issued at 208am EDT Wednesday April 8 2026 The threat of rip currents will remain high across the Atlantic through the end of the week. In addition to rips, surf heigheights will continue to build on Wednesday across the Palm Beaches and peak along the entire east coast on Wednesday, with peak breakers between 7-10 ft. A High Surf advisory has been issued for the Palm Beach area through Friday. Surf heigheights will decrease towards the end of the week, but breezy easterly winds will continue to keep hazardous beach conditions in place across the Atlantic. NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...Flood Watch until 10pm EDT this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168- 172-173. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. High Surf Advisory until 8pm EDT Friday for FLZ168. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Thursday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Saturday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Friday for GMZ656-657-676. |
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