Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef, FL Out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tonight...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday...South Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Less Than 2 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Chance Of Showers. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet Along The Coast And 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional To 5 Feet In The Gulf Stream. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet Along The Coast And 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional To 5 Feet In The Gulf Stream. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
| AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
155 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020
A trough of low pressure over the area will help to enhance coverage of showers and thunderstorms for the next couple of days. A cold front will approach the area on tuesday and move into the area on Wednesday before stalling somewhere over the area. It is highly uncertain as to how far south the front will make it. The front will help to enhance coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. The showers and thunderstorms may bring locally hazardous marine conditions for the South Florida waters for the entire week.
Gulf Stream Hazards: None.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Sep 26, 2020 at 1200 UTC...
- 9 nautical miles southeast of Fowey Rocks.
- 13 nautical miles east northeast of Port Everglades.
- 9 nautical miles northeast of Lake Worth.
- 7 nautical miles east northeast of Jupiter Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
137am EDT Monday September 28 2020
...HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AREAS... .Short Term
Today through Tuesday... The 500mb high pressure that had been keeping things a little more subdued than they could have been has eroded in advance of a trough moving into the area. This will allow for greater instability across the CWA this afternoon. The models are indicating low level convergence in the western interior in the first part of the day, then shifting to the eastern interior. Also, the NAM12 is showing strong 700mb omega values over the eastern interior this afternoon. The question will be how close to the metro areas will convection be. Right now, close enough that showers and thunderstorms are possible, at least in the western side of the metro areas. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are over 2.3 inches today and 500mb temps are around -5.5C to -6C across the area. NCAPE is low on the BUFKIT soundings, at around.14. So, would not be surprised to see widespread heavy rain, mainly in the interior, with a few stronger storms, where boundary interactions provide additional forcing. There is uncertainty if there is a flood potential for the metro areas, but if the models are off by just a little, there could be a potential for either coast today.
Tomorrow, a cold front begins to push towards the area. Ahead of the front, there will likely be a pre-frontal trough that develops, which will help to bring active weather to the area. The GFS is, however, showing a drier air mass advecting in from the southeast, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) dropping to around 1.5 inches for the eastern half of the CWA. So, have the highest Probability of Precipitation in the western Lake region, and only a chance of showers and storms over most of the eastern half of the area. Also, 500mb temperatures are forecast to increase by Tuesday afternoon to around -4.5C, which would place an additional hindrance for convection in this area. In the western interior, the temps are a tad bit lower, at around -5C, and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are still showing well over 2 inches.
.Long Term... Tuesday night into Wednesday night... The trough of low pressure will move eastward into the Eastern United States from the Central United States allowing for low pressure to develop over the Southeastern United States and move northeast up the eastern coast of the United States. This in turn will allow for a cold front to move southward down the Florida Peninsula and into South Florida. Therefore, the showers and thunderstorms will be on an increase across the region with the best coverage over the interior and east coast metro areas for Wednesday.
.Thursday Through This Weekend... The long range models are now showing that the cold front will stall over the southern areas of South Florida Wednesday night before moving back slowly northward late this week and be around Lake Okeechobee region this weekend. This will allow for an northeast surface flow to set up over South Florida along with the steering flow to be south southwest direction keeping the deep tropical moisture in place with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values in the 2.1 to 2.4 inch range which is near the maximum value for this time of year over South Florida.
There could also be a right entrance region of a 250 hPa jet streak draped over the South Florida and several 500 hPa vorticity maxima transversing the region, the synoptic environment is favorable for a widespread rainfall event to unfold especially over the east coast metro areas where a noticeable coastal convergence zone appears to manifest along the Atlantic coastline. While this event is further out in the forecast period, prognostic solutions are trending towards this type of setup. Flooding seems to be the main concern to monitor, especially in poorly-drained urban regions. Any flood threat appears to be localized for now, however, will have to monitor the possibility of a larger areal threat as the pattern emerges.
A trough of low pressure is moving over the area, ahead of a cold front, which will move into the area by the middle of the week. Ahead of the front, a pre-frontal trough will likely form, allowing for some active weather for Tuesday. There is a great amount of uncertainty for the front on Wednesday as models keep bouncing with how far south it makes it. Typically, this time of year it is Okeechobee teaser season. Basically, models show a frontal passage, but in reality, the fronts tend to stall near the Lake, not making it too far into the CWA. This is a very possible scenario with this front. Even if the front does make it further south, the northerly flow behind it does not look to be strong enough to cause any significant increase in seas for the latter part of the week.
Looking at the coastlines, the rip current risk should remain low for the first half of the week, and depending on what the wind does for the second half, the rip current risk could remain low, of if the wind is a little stronger, the risk could be enhanced.
Also, as the full moon approaches, the spring tides will make a return to the coastal areas, with some minor flooding within the next couple of days, then increasing potential for tidal flooding for the remainder of the week, and into the weekend. This may possibly be enhanced if a strong enough wind with an easterly component develops this week.
.Aviation... A 500 mb trough of low pressure will help to enhance instability today. This should result in more coverage of convection today, but should still be mainly over the interior areas. Also, with high pressure gone aloft, there is a higher potential for stronger storms today. Once convection is initiated the dominate pattern will probably be determined by boundary interactions, with storms having slow movement/propagation to the north across most of the area.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.
13 Long Term...54/BNB