Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef, FL Out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 3 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Showers Likely. Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...East Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Along The Coast To East 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots In The Gulf Stream. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
| AMZ600: Synopsis for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef FL out to 60 nm and for East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach FL out to 60 nm|
402 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021
A wet pattern should evolve for mid to late week across the area. This will result in more cloud cover along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. While generally benign conditions should prevail, locally hazardous conditions are likely in and near thunderstorms with gusty winds and higher seas expected.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Locally elevated seas and gusty winds in the strongest showers and thunderstorms.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Jun 17, 2021 at 1200 UTC...
- 6 nautical miles east of Fowey Rocks.
- 9 nautical miles east southeast of Port Everglades.
- 10 nautical miles east northeast of Lake Worth.
- 12 nautical miles east of Jupiter Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL
726pm EDT Tuesday Jun 22 2021
SHORT TERM... Through Wednesday:
The western edge of the Bermuda High continues to remains established over South Florida, which has allowed for the prevailing flow to become southeasterly. Moist tropical air laden with moisture continues to advect into the area as precipitable water values approach values upwards of 2.0 inches and dewpoint temperatures remain in the upper 70s. As both the Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes push inland this afternoon, convection should fire along boundary collisions allowing for thunderstorms and showers to develop. The greatest coverage today should once again be over the interior and Lake Okeechobee region. Any thunderstorm that is able to develop could have the potential to produce lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and torrential downpours. Localized flooding is also possible today, especially with heavier thunderstorms that could remain stationary along a boundary collision.
Outside of showers and thunderstorms, it is going to be another hot and humid day today with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s across South Florida. Heat index values across South Florida will be in the triple digits, with some locations approaching 105-107 degrees. With the loss of diurnal heating after sunset, thunderstorm activity should begin to gradually wane and dissipate during the mid to late evening hours. With an abundance of moisture remaining in the vertical column during the overnight hours, showers and thunderstorms could develop over the nearshore waters and move inland.
Wednesday will remain wet and stormy as a vort max progresses southwards towards the region. The vorticity maximum will act as a lifting mechanism to further aid the development of strong updrafts and the resultant creation of convective columns. At the surface, a continued advection of moist tropical air will allow for a saturated vertical column with precipitable water values upwards of 2.0" across South Florida. With the relatively light winds aloft resulting in a very slow to stationary storm motion and a saturated vertical profile, localized flooding is a potential concern. Gusty winds, small hail, and gusty winds are once again possible with the strongest convective columns on Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday will reach the upper 80s to low 90s before convective activity and cloud cover act to lower temperatures.
Long Term No meaningful changes were made to the extended forecast and the previous included below.
Wednesday Night to Monday... An unsettled pattern is forecast across South Florida mid to late week as a longwave trough aloft over the eastern third of the United States combines with a weakness in the Atlantic surface high pressure. Precipitable water values of 2.0 to 2.3 inches point to a moist atmosphere capable of producing excessive rainfall due to repeated slow-moving thunderstorms. Just to put these forecast precipitable water values into context, based on the sounding climatology for MFL, a 90th percentile value for late June would be around 2.0 inches and the record sits around or just above 2.3 inches. Combine that with a passing inverted trough embedded in the flow around the low-level high and weak steering flow for convection which will produce the potential for strong storms that may move quite slowly on Thursday with a peak coming around the diurnal heating max on Thursday afternoon into the evening.
As Thursday night becomes Friday morning, the inverted trough will push into the Gulf with the surface high attempting to build back in over the region. Aloft, the longwave trough will advance north and east away from the region. Moisture will still be present over the region which will keep the door open for convective coverage to once again be healthy on Friday, particularly over western portions of the area closer to the trough in the Gulf. Saturday and Sunday could be transition days with the potential for a slightly drier slot of air moving into the subsidence region behind the Gulf trough which could lower convective coverage compared to previous days.
The extended period closes out with some uncertainty. Some guidance is suggesting that some drier air (possibly another burst of Saharan dust) could approach the region while some other solutions have a disturbance and associated moisture from the Caribbean entering the picture. Overall, the forecast confidence is low from the weekend onward due to these factors and should be monitored through the week and weekend to see how the forecast evolves.
AVIATION(18Z TAFS)... Generally VFR conditons will prevail with the exception of TEMPO sub- VFR conditions in any SHRA/TSRA. Southeasterly winds will prevail today at area terminals with the exception of APF which will have winds out of the SW as the gulf breeze pushes inland. Winds will become light and variable overnight before picking up once again tomorrow after sunrise. Cannot rule out showers and thunderstorms overnight and tomorrow morning, so have carried VCs through the TAF period.
Benign marine conditions can be expected across the coastal waters outside of any shower or thunderstorm activity that develops over the area waters. Locally strong gusty winds, cloud-to-water lightning, heavy rainfall (limiting visibilities), locally higher seas, and waterspouts through the period.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.