Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef, FL Out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...East Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Period 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas.|
|Tonight...East Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts To Around 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Period 5 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas.|
|Sunday...East Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts To Around 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Sunday Night...East Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas To 5 Feet. Period 4 Seconds. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Monday...East Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...East Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters A Moderate Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...East Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Chance Of Showers|
|Tuesday Night...East Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...East Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Intracoastal Waters Choppy In Exposed Areas. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Miami FL
301pm EDT Sat May 21 2022
.SHORT TERM... This Afternoon through Sunday... The first Saharan Air Layer (SAL) of the season over South Florida today is accompanied by hot and sultry conditions due to an influx of deep low level tropical moisture on the SW flank of a strong subtropical high over the western Atlantic and Bahamas. Heat index values this afternoon are topping 100F in most areas of South Florida, even getting as high as 105-107F over sections of inland SW Florida.
The presence of the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) also means dry/subsident air on top of the warm and moist boundary layer. This is causing steep mid-level lapse likely in the 7.0 to 7.5 C/km range, leading to quite a bit of instability for any convection to tap into. The relatively dry SAL (Saharan Air Layer) will limit the areal extent of convection this afternoon, however we still expect high coverage of showers and thunderstorms around and west of Lake Okeechobee this afternoon and early this evening in accordance with the consensus of the high-resolution convective allowing models such as the HRRR. This is the area where the SE-S low level flow is focusing moisture convergence, as well as upper level divergence between the Atlantic high and a mid/upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The gradient of Probability of Precipitation this afternoon will be fairly tight with the highest values greater than 60% west of Lake Okeechobee transitioning to 20% or less south of West Palm Beach (including the Miami/Fort Lauderdale metro).
A few strong storms are expected with one or two severe storms possible. Strong/possibly damaging wind and large hail are the primary potential hazards, along with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall and localized flooding.
Thunderstorms over the interior should begin to dissipate shortly after sunset, and a few showers/thunderstorms may affect the SE coast overnight in the SE flow, but Probability of Precipitation are held at no higher than 20%.
On Sunday, the mid-level high over the Bahamas will nudge closer to South Florida as the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) remains over the area. Subsidence from the high looks to be slightly stronger on Sunday, resulting in lower PoPs than today. SE low level flow will continue to focus the majority of the convection over the western third of the peninsula. Models also indicate a bit more high-level cloud cover which may act to reduce temperatures a couple of degrees and limit the intensity of the convection.
Low temperatures tonight/Sunday morning will continue on the warm side, probably not dropping below 80F over most of metro SE Florida. Highs on Sunday, despite a couple of degrees cooler, are still expected to reach the lower 90s over the interior and Gulf coast with heat index values between 100-105F. Over SE Florida, highs are forecast in the upper 80s with heat index topping in the upper 90s.
.LONG TERM (Monday Through Next Week)... High pressure will continue to dominate in the extended as the center of the high modulates closer and further away from the peninsula. Also, slots of drier and moist air rotate across the region along the area of high pressure. Therefore a fairly typical diurnal summer time type convection for most of the week with scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. As we get towards the end of the week we may see an uptick in moisture and rain chances as we head into the holiday weekend. However, plenty of time to see how the models play out as there are a few differences in the total amount of moisture that moves across the region towards the end of the long term period.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s will continue each afternoon with highest temps over the western interior given the easterly to southeasterly flow. The flow will also allow for warm nigheights with temps in the mid to upper 70s along the east coast.
Persistent surface high pressure over the western Atlantic through most of next week will lead to moderate SE winds across the local waters. Winds may be high enough during much of this period to warrant Small Craft Caution headlines, along with choppy conditions. Showers and thunderstorms will be more likely over the Gulf waters and Lake Okeechobee Sunday and Monday, then more evenly distributed across all local waters Tuesday through late next week.
The rip current risk is expected to remain high through the weekend and probably through a good part of next week at the Atlantic beaches due to persistent and moderate SE winds.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.