Cape Blanco OR to Point St. George CA out 10 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Wind 5 To 10 Kt...Backing To Se After Midnight. Wind Waves Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. W Swell 7 To 8 Ft At 12 Seconds... Subsiding To 6 Ft At 12 Seconds After Midnight. Chance Of Showers Through The Night.
|Thu...Se Wind 5 To 10 Kt...Veering To S In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Less Than 2 Ft. Swell W 6 To 7 Ft At 13 Seconds.
|Thu Night...E Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves Less Than 2 Ft. W Swell 7 Ft At 14 Seconds.
|Fri...Ne Wind 5 To 10 Kt...Backing To N In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Less Than 2 Ft. Swell W 8 To 9 Ft At 14 Seconds.
|Fri Night...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. W Swell 6 To 7 Ft At 12 Seconds.
|Sat...Northern Portion, N Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Brookings Southward, Ne Wind 5 To 10 Kt...Backing To N 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Nw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. Swell W 3 To 4 Ft At 12 Seconds.
|Sat Night...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. W Swell 4 To 5 Ft At 13 Seconds.
|Sun...N Wind 10 Kt...Backing To W. Wind Waves Nw 2 Ft At 5 Seconds...Shifting To The W 3 Ft At 4 Seconds After Midnight. Swell Nw 8 Ft At 16 Seconds.
|Mon...Nw Wind 15 Kt...Veering To N After Midnight. Wind Waves Nw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. Swell Nw 13 To 14 Ft At 14 Seconds.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
355pm PST Wednesday Feb 21 2024
.Updated Aviation Discussion.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight (2/21) through Saturday night (2/24)...RADAR imagery is indicating Probability of Precipitation up showers across much of southern Oregon and northern California. These will continue into the afternoon and evening. Guidance is indicating about a 15 percent chance for a rumble of thunder, particularly in Douglas County. But the showers remain relatively low-topped which may lower the actual chance for lightning to occur. Lightning potential will decrease quickly after sunset.
The showers will taper off tonight, and we will be under the influence of high pressure. This means that we may see some fog potential in the west side valleys Thursday morning. The fog will burn off by late morning and temperatures are expected to be mild.
While under the influence of the high pressure, a low pressure system will try to spin through our outer waters. A few ensemble members bring some light precipitation to the coast (a 5 percent chance), but most of the ensemble guidance keep rain chances offshore.
After Thursday, we remain under high pressure with very high snow levels (8000 ft), which suggests that temperatures will be pretty warm for late February. Afternoon high temperatures will reach into the low to mid 60s at the coast and for the West Side Valleys, and temperatures will reach into the low to mid 50s for areas east of the Cascades. Lows will also be milder across the board. -Schaaf
Sunday (02/25) through Monday (02/28)...Sunday is when the pattern begins to get busy again as high pressure breaks down. A broad area of low pressure will move down out of the gulf of Alaska and the big question is how cold of an airmass will it bring with it.
In terms of snow levels, they will start out around 5500 feet Sunday afternoon and steadily lower from there. By Monday morning, snow levels range between 1500 feet on Coos and Douglas County, to 4500 to 5000 feet in Southern Lake and Modoc County. At the lowest, on Monday night, snow levels could range between 300-700 feet above sea level (10% chance) and 1700-2000 feet above sea level (90% chance of this or lower). Then they are expected to rebound to around 2000 feet on Tuesday. This variability means that valley floor snow is possible, but confidence is higher for areas from 3000 feet and higher to pick up impactful snowfall.
With the moisture moving in from the west-northwest, this event will focus in the Cascades and mountains of SW Oregon; or put another way, the north-south oriented mountain chains. This will put the focus of snow in far western Siskiyou County and the Warners in NorCal, instead of the Mt. Shasta area. There is already a high (30- 50%) chance that mountain passes over the Cascades will have enough snowfall to cause disruptions to daily life and travel. Snow amounts in any 24 hour period from Sunday night through Wednesday night ranges from 2-5 inches between 2500 and 3000 feet, and 8-12 inches above 4500 feet.
It is also worth noting that the eastern parts of Klamath County, and Lake County, could experience some rain/snow shadowing as the Cascades block most of the moisture. The best chance for precipitation will be as the system moves into this area late Sunday night. However, the chances still aren't that high that this area gets impactful snowfall amounts.
Winds will also be gusty during this storm, peaking Monday morning and lasting into the afternoon. Already it appears that advisory strength wind speeds will be possible east of the Cascades. There is also higher confidence that winds with this system will only increase, not decrease. 2 -Miles
Updated 200pm Wednesday February 21, 2024...Sub-advisory conditions are likely to persist for the remainder of the week. Low pressure will approach the outer waters late Thursday into Friday, but guidance remains in good agreement that strong winds will remain beyond 60 nm from shore. The proximity of the low pressure, however, will send a short period southerly swell (3-5 ft) into the waters Thursday night into Friday morning. Conditions should remain sub- advisory, though there could be a brief period of conditions hazardous to small craft early Friday morning south of Gold Beach.
As low pressure moves away from the region, northerly winds develop on Saturday and this will likely bring a period of steep wind driven seas for much of the waters early Saturday into early Sunday morning. Conditions improve on Sunday as winds diminish and seas become less steep. This period of improved conditions will likely be short lived as an abrupt pattern change is expected by early Monday and continuing through mid-week next week. Expect a turn to much colder weather with periods of gusty northwest winds. Guidance continues to show a moderate to heavy northwest swell (15 to 17 ft @ 13 to 15 seconds) moving into the waters early next week. This will likely bring the return of hazardous conditions with steep to very steep seas possible. /BR-y
NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.