Cape Blanco OR to Point St. George CA out 10 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...N Wind 15 To 25 Kt...Becoming 15 To 20 Kt In The Morning, Then...Rising To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Within 5 Nm Of Brookings Southward, N Wind 15 To 25 Kt... Backing To Nw 10 To 20 Kt In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Wind Waves 4 To 7 Ft. Swell Nw 7 To 9 Ft At 13 Seconds. Chance Of Rain.|
|Tonight...N Wind 20 To 25 Kt. Within 5 Nm Of Brookings Southward, N Wind 15 To 25 Kt...Easing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 3 To 6 Ft. Swell Nw 7 To 8 Ft At 12 Seconds.|
|Sun...Northern Portion, E Wind 5 To 10 Kt...Veering To Sw Late In The Afternoon. Brookings Southward, N Wind 10 To 20 Kt... Easing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Morning, Then... Backing To Sw Early In The Afternoon...Backing To S Late In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Nw 7 To 8 Ft At 11 Seconds...Subsiding To Nw 6 Ft At 12 Seconds In The Afternoon. Chance Of Rain.|
|Sun Night...W Wind 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft. Swell Nw 8 To 9 Ft. Rain.|
|Mon...W Wind 10 To 20 Kt...Veering To Nw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 3 To 6 Ft...Building To 5 To 7 Ft In The Afternoon. Swell Nw 8 To 9 Ft... Building To Nw 10 To 11 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain.|
|Mon Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 5 To 6 Ft...Subsiding To 4 Ft After Midnight. Swell Nw 12 To 13 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Tue...E Wind 5 Kt...Veering To Sw In The Afternoon, Then... Backing To S 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft In The Morning... Becoming 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Nw 10 Ft...Subsiding To Nw 8 Ft.|
|Wed...S Wind 15 Kt...Veering To W After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less...Becoming 3 Ft. W Swell 6 Ft...Subsiding To 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Medford OR
246am PST Sat Nov 26 2022
An active week of weather is expected. A Winter Storm Watch is out for areas of Douglas, Jackson, and Klamath County for Sunday into Monday morning, with the most intense snowfall expected during the morning commute hours Monday morning. Active weather continues later in the week with another front arriving Wednesday. Followed by the potential for a period of chilling temperatures to start out December.
A front is stretched across Oregon from the NE corner of the state to the Klamath Basin, then offshore of Cape Mendocino. The front has brought measurable precipitation to the area with 0.2" to 0.4" across the coast and Umpqua Basin. Lighter amounts of 0.01" to 0.1" (liquid, not snow) have been measured along the Cascades and in Jackson and Josephine County. Some light amounts have also measured in northern Lake County. Some low top showers that will struggle to show up on radar will linger along the Cascades.
Offshore flow will develop along the South Coast Range today and this will lead to the Brookings area being the warmest area along the coast by about 5 degrees warmer. Other than this, the weather will be quiet today with lingering cloud cover in the morning.
The pattern becomes more impactful on Sunday as another front moves through. Rain should start at the coast around mid-morning before spreading inland along the I-5 corridor around noon. Snow in the Cascades will start off around the same noon time period as well. Amounts of rainfall will generally be light away from the mountains. In the Coquille and Umpqua there is a 30% chance for 0.1" or more rain through about 4 pm, while in the mountains this chances is 50-60%. Snow amounts in the Cascades through this time should remain less than 2-3 inches even along the higher peaks and at Diamond Lake and the Chemult area, amounts should remain less than an inch.
Rain and snow will intensify Sunday night and peak early Monday morning as a second front moves through with more direct dynamic support from a trough dropping into the interior PNW. This is when snow levels will quickly drop from 4000-4500 feet down to 2300-2700 feet north across Douglas County and to between 2500-3000 feet in the Howard Prairie to Union Creek area. Snowfall rates will also intensify, with rates approaching 1"/hr in the Diamond Lake, Toketee Falls, and Willamette Pass areas. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for portions of Eastern Douglas, Northeast Jackson, and Western Klamath County above 2500 feet; please read that product for more details.
Rain and snow intensity will lighten during the afternoon Monday but not stop. Snow levels will also continue to lower. By about 4pm snow levels are forecast to be in the 2200-2400 feet north of the Siskiyous. This will drive snow very close to the larger west side valley floors. Some of the higher points in these valleys like Ashland for the Rogue, Weed & Mt. Shasta City, Obrien in the Illinois, and Glide in the Umpqua could pick up a light dusting of snow up to half an inch.
Winds during the Sunday afternoon to Monday night time frame will also be gusty. For areas like Diamond Lake, gusts to 30 mph will be fairly common. For anyone thinking of braving the snow during this time will have added difficulty because a lighter, fluffier than typical snow will more easily be pushed around by the strong winds. And along the higher peaks like at Crater Lake or down on Mt. Shasta, wind gusts will easily exceed 70 mph. East of the Cascades winds will be just as gusty. High profile vehicles driving along route 31 should use caution with frequent gusts of 35 mph forecast. -Miles
.Long Term from the Friday afternoon AFD...Tuesday (11/29) through Friday (12/02)...A drier, less exciting post- frontal west to northwest flow aloft will be over the area Tuesday. The best chance (50-60 percent) for lingering showers will be across the Umpqua from Coos Bay through Roseburg, and across the adjacent Cascades foothills. Areas south and east from those areas will only have about a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers.
Fairly good ensemble agreement points to another cold front reaching the coast Wednesday as upper heigheights again fall and a reinforcing shot of cold air takes aim at the region. Confidence is fairly high that the coast, Umpqua and Cascades will see precipitation and mountain snow falling at least later Wednesday into Thursday morning. The scenarios advertised in the ensemble clusters point to about a 1 in 3 chance that a digging trough or closed low of may impact northern California as well including the Mt. Shasta area with a potential moderate impact snow event lasting into Friday.
Of additional concern in this period is the temperature forecast Friday-Saturday. Latest NBM 4.1, and the deterministic GFS (Global Forecast System) and EC models, indicate 850mb temps dipping to between -6 and -9C Friday across the west side which is translating to some very cold low temperatures. Upper teens to mid 20s are currently forecast for the west side including freezing temps at the coast, with single digits or cooler over the east. Similar conditions Saturday morning. Stavish
Updated 245am PST Saturday 26 November 2022...Gusty north to northeast winds will combine with northwest swell to create steep to very steep seas into tonight. Wind and seas will be highest south of Cape Blanco, peaking at 11 to 12 feet. After a relative lull Saturday night into Sunday, another round of moderate northwest swell will move through Sunday night into Tuesday. This round will peak at 13 feet at 12 seconds. More fronts will move through Sunday, Monday, and Wednesday.
NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ORZ025>028.
CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1am PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370- 376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 1am PST Sunday for PZZ356-376.