Cape Blanco OR to Point St. George CA out 10 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...N Wind 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Building To 7 To 10 Ft This Afternoon. Wave Detail: Nw 10 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Tonight...N Wind 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft, Subsiding To 6 To 9 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Nw 10 Ft At 7 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. |
| Tue...N Wind 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 8 Ft At 7 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...N Wind 25 To 30 Kt, Easing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 8 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Nw 9 Ft At 7 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Wed...N Wind 20 To 25 Kt. Gusts Up To 40 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 9 Ft At 7 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...N Wind 25 To 30 Kt, Easing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 8 To 11 Ft, Subsiding To 6 To 9 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Nw 10 Ft At 7 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Thu...N Wind 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 8 Ft At 7 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 16 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...N Wind 20 To 25 Kt, Easing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 6 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 6 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Nw 8 Ft At 7 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. |
| Fri...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 8 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt, Easing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 7 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 612am PDT Monday August 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Elevated Fire Weather Concerns continue through Wednesday due to hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Gradual, very slight improvement day-to-day while temperatures remain above normal, humidities drier than normal, and afternoon/evening breezes slightly stronger than normal. More seasonable conditions follow late in the week. * Periods of smoke accumulation, especially for the morning hours, over Klamath, Lake, eastern Siskiyou, and Modoc counties. * Afternoon thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for Thursday through Sunday, and appear overall as a slight chance for portions of the area each day. But, with low confidence for now in where activity will be focused. * Patchy low clouds and fog in The Coquille Valley this morning, with slightly greater coverage expected north of Cape Blanco overnight into Tuesday morning, then extending into portions of Umpqua Valley (to include patches near Roseburg) on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Stratus is likely to cover more of the Coast during early mornings late in the week. Confidence is high in the forecast through Wednesday, and still reasonably high through Thursday. In the short term, a weak trough over the Pacific Northwest into far northern California will sharpen at mid-week. The result is a dry air mass with a west-southwest flow aloft and a trend of very slightly and very gradually improving (cooler, more humid) conditions. Meantime, afternoon breezes will show the least improvement...remaining slightly stronger than normal each day. Gusty winds will be north to northwest for most of our area, except southwest to west in Modoc County into southern Lake County. In spite of the elevated breezes, smoke will remain trapped in some low-lying areas. With westerly to southwesterly flow aloft and decreased fire activity, additional smoke reaching west side valleys is not expected. But, light winds overnight look to allow for periods of mainly night and morning smoke accumulation over Klamath, Lake, eastern Siskiyou, and Modoc counties. Weak instability could allow a thunderstorm to push into far southeast Modoc County on Wednesday afternoon. Thereafter, late in the week, the pattern will shift to a deeper trough. There is an important, wide range of solutions in how it will evolve while a stronger trough shifts southeast from near the Aleutian Islands. This trough may become the driver of, or at least a more significant contributor to our weather early next week. A sharper trough, with a more southerly component to the flow aloft is expected to allow an influx of mid-level moisture and the development of instability. This looks most likely to be a modest producer of lightning, although with a few days in a row with some activity in our area, and a potential for at least one of those days to have thunderstorm activity on both the west side and the east side. This is most likely to start on Thursday with a slight chance of thunderstorms (around 15%) for the Warner Mountains in far eastern Modoc County into Lake County, with a lesser probability of around 10% also for Siskiyou County into Klamath County. Any of Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday could take the prize as our most active thunderstorm day of this stretch, though there is still a general trend to shift the region of instability northward, into northern Oregon, for Sunday. Marine Updated 230am PDT Monday, August 10, 2026...Gusty north winds will continue through Wednesday evening, with gales and very steep seas south of Port Orford and within 40 nm of shore. Elsewhere, steep seas are expected. Winds will begin to ease Thursday, and diminish more noticeably on Friday into the weekend. But, steep seas are likely to linger into Friday. Fire Weather Updated 200am PDT Monday, August 10, 2026...The outlook has changed little from yesterday afternoon. Perhaps with a slightly higher confidence in isolated late week, late day thunderstorms occurring over portions of the area east of the Coast Range. But, it is still too early to be confident in where activity will be focused each day. We'll stay in a pattern of very warm, very dry, and breezy conditions today through Wednesday. This pattern includes overnight breezy east to northeast winds at ridge tops of SW Oregon and NW California (most notably the Coast Range and Kalmiopsis Wilderness) along with poor to moderate RH recovery this morning and Tuesday morning, trending to improved but still moderate recovery in subsequent mornings. A channeling of winds down the Chetco could result in some drier/warmer conditions along the SW Oregon coast as well. Upper level ridging shifting back toward the Four Corners will allow westerly zonal flow aloft to bring lower heigheights and modest cooling to inland areas. Generally, the trend will be to lower daytime MaxTs down by a degree or two each day, and this should subsequently allow daytime MinRHs to be slightly higher. Even so, it'll be dry and unstable, so any fires on the landscape will still have the ability to grow significantly, especially during the peak burning periods during the afternoons/evenings. Overnight RH recoveries haven't been good the last couple of nights, generally only in the 20-35% range for some of the upper slopes and ridges. There should be slight nightly improvement in recoveries from NW to SE through the period. Things trend toward normal after Wednesday, but temperatures still probably remain a few degrees above normal for most locations. Models and ensemble guidance continue to show a weakness or upper trough developing near or just off the California coast Wed/Thu and also show an increase in monsoonal moisture coming up from the south late week. Right now, after around a 10% probability of a thunderstorm extending into southeast Modoc County on Wednesday afternoon, models still bring isolated lightning chances up into NorCal around Thursday with the best chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms Fri/Sat from NorCal up the Cascades and across portions of the East Side. But, given plenty of uncertainty in strength of forcing mechanisms and overall instability, confidence is low in the locations where activity will be focused. Keep checking back for updates since any lightning brings with it the risk of new fire starts. -Spilde/DW NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11pm PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356- 370-376. |
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