Cape Blanco OR to Point St. George CA out 10 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northern Portion, Nw Wind 5 Kt...Backing To S 5 To 15 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Brookings Southward, Sw Wind 5 Kt...Veering To W Early In The Evening, Then...Backing To Sw Late In The Evening... Backing To S After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 4 To 5 Ft At 11 Seconds. And Patchy Fog Through The Night.|
|Thu...S Wind 10 To 15 Kt Northern Portion And S 5 To 15 Kt Brookings Southward. Wind Waves 3 Ft. W Swell 4 To 5 Ft At 11 Seconds. Showers Likely.|
|Thu Night...W Wind 5 Kt...Veering To Nw 10 To 15 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Within 5 Nm Of Brookings Southward, Nw Wind 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less...Becoming 3 Ft After Midnight. W Swell 5 Ft At 10 Seconds...Building To 7 Ft At 10 Seconds And W 2 Ft At 13 Seconds After Midnight. Slight Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
|Fri...Nw Wind 20 Kt Except Nw 15 To 20 Kt Within 5 Nm Of Brookings Southward. Wind Waves 3 Ft. W Swell 7 To 8 Ft... Shifting To The Nw And W 5 Ft In The Afternoon. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri Night...N Wind 20 To 25 Kt Except N 15 To 25 Kt Within 5 Nm Of Brookings Southward. Wind Waves 3 To 5 Ft. Nw Swell 6 To 7 Ft.|
|Sat...N Wind 15 To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 5 Ft. Nw Swell 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Wind N Wind 15 To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 5 Ft. Nw Swell 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt...Rising To 25 Kt In The Evening, Then...Easing To 20 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 3 Ft...Building To 5 To 6 Ft. Nw Swell 4 To 5 Ft. Swell And W 3 Ft.|
|Mon...N Wind 20 Kt...Rising To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 5 To 6 Ft... Building To 8 Ft In The Evening, Then...Subsiding To 6 Ft After Midnight. Nw Swell 6 Ft...Becoming W 4 Ft. Swell And W 2 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Medford OR
458pm PDT Wednesday May 5 2021
SHORT TERM...After the very warm temperatures today, expect cooler conditions and some areas of showers as a front and upper trough move into the region Thursday and Friday. Gusty winds east of the Cascades are expected this afternoon and moreso, Thursday afternoon along with dry humidities resulting in elevated fire weather concerns. On Saturday, the upper trough will be east of the area and expect cold morning temperatures with some areas of frost in valleys west of the Cascades.
Today will be the warmest day over the area with a strong high pressure ridge in place. High temperatures this afternoon are on track to reach the mid 80s to around 90 for inland valleys west of the Cascades and the upper 70s to 80 east of the Cascades. Should Medford reach 90 degrees today, it will be the first high of 90 or above since October 2nd of last year. Along with these very warm temperatures, breezy to gusty winds and dry humidities will occur this afternoon into early this evening, especially for areas east of the Cascades and within the Shasta Valley, where fire weather concerns will be elevated.
Models are on track showing a weak front moving into the coast Thursday morning then weakening further as it moves inland Thursday afternoon and night. This front is followed by an upper trough moving across the area Friday. This pattern will result in cooler temperatures Thursday and moreso, Friday as well as areas of light rain, mainly at the coast, in the Umpqua Basin and over the Southern Oregon Cascades. There is slight chance for some rain showers south of the Umpqua Divide into Josephine and Jackson Counties late Thursday into Friday, however any amounts would be very light. Ahead of the front, areas east of the Cascades will see windy conditions with continued dry humidities Thursday afternoon and early evening. West winds may briefly reach advisory levels with gusts to 45 mph but only for isolated locations over the higher terrain east of the Cascades, primarily near Summer Lake. Overall, models support winds just below advisory levels for most of the area with west winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts 35 to 40 mph east of the Cascades. The combination of gusty winds and dry humidities though, will result in elevated fire weather concerns. Please see the fire weather discussion below for additional details.
Friday will be the coolest day for inland areas this week with highs around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Daytime high temperatures are forecast in the lower to mid 60s for most valleys west of the Cascades and in the mid 50s to near 60 for valleys east of the Cascades. This is followed by cool temperatures Friday night and Saturday morning. Low temperatures are expected to lower into the 30s for western valleys and in the 20s for valleys east of the Cascades. Areas of frost are possible in some valleys west of the Cascades with these lower temperatures, clearing skies and mainly light winds.
Saturday is expected to be dry with northwest flow over the region as the upper trough remains to the east and ridge remains offshore. Expect mild daytime temperatures with highs near or slightly below normal for this time of year, except at the coast where normal to slightly above normal temperatures are possible under offshore, northeast flow (especially for areas south of Cape Blanco).
Long Term(Sunday through Wednesday)...Not much has changed in the extended. It's likely to remain dry through the forecast period. Even the individual ensemble members of the ECE and GFS show no measurable precipitation. Afternoon temperatures Sunday will be near normal for this time of the year. It will be cool to cold at night with the coldest temperatures in the Klamath Basin in northern Klamath County.
Upper ridging will build just west of the area Monday into Tuesday. At the same time a thermal trough will set up along the coast with increasing offshore flow. Afternoon temperatures will be higher for most inland locations, but even milder temperatures are possible for the south coast near Brookings.
The ridge will flatten out some Wednesday resulting in slight cooling and increased onshore flow west of the Cascades, but remaining dry. Of Note, the GFs shows a weak upper trough moving through Wednesday evening and night, but the trajectory and strength is one that normally does not result in precipitation. -Petrucelli
AVIATION...For the 06/00Z TAF Cycle...Offshore south of Cape Blanco marine stratus is causing MVFR/IFR. Marine stratus will bringing another round of IFR to the inland coastal areas tonight. A large prescribed burn near Chiloquin is producing a smoke plume which is creating MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) VSBYs and partial terrain obscuration toward KLMT. All other inland locations are VFR and will be that way through the TAF cycle. Smoke will return to KLMT at some point tonight as mixing decreases.
MARINE...Updated 130pm PDT Wednesday 05 May 2021...Winds and seas will be their lowest this evening. Then, a weak front will move onshore Thursday, and this will bring small craft winds and seas to areas north of Cape Blanco beyond 10 nm offshore during the day Thursday. Winds and seas will decrease behind the front Thursday night into Friday. Another thermal trough will develop near the coast Friday afternoon and persist into next week, bringing gusty north winds and choppy seas to the area, especially south of Cape Blanco.
Updated 200pm PDT Wednesday 05 May 2021...The latest surface analysis shows the thermal trough inland over the west side valleys. The thermal trough is expected to gradually shift east of the Cascades later this afternoon.
This afternoon will be marked by dry conditions and very warm temperatures inland, on the order of 10 to 15 degrees above normal, and gusty south to southwest winds in the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades. Near critical conditions are possible during the afternoon in portions of Lake, Klamath, and Modoc Counties. However we don't think red flag conditions will be met mainly due to winds not being strong enough. Therefore, we'll continue to headline.
A cold front will push into the region Thursday, and while light precipitation is expected from the coast to the Cascades, this will be a dry cold frontal passage for areas east of the Cascades. Temperatures will trend cooler across the region Thursday afternoon, with humidities higher over the West Side. The latest guidance also suggest higher relative humidities east of the Cascades. The increase may not be as much as the west side, but it may be just enough to prevent critical conditions from developing. With that said, still could not rule out brief critical conditions for the eastern portions of fire zone 624 Thursday afternoon and early evening.
Winds across the East Side are expected to be stronger Thursday afternoon ahead of the front due to a combination of a tighter pressure gradient and stronger winds aloft (700mb winds between 25 and 35 kts). We did get calls from our partners in fire zones 285, 624 and 625 and they said green up has occurred in fire zones 625 and 285 due to recent precipitation and as a result their fuels are in the moderate category. However fire zone 624 did not benefit nearly as much and fuels are still receptive, below 5,000 feet. Therefore, given the above mentioned reasoning regarding winds and relative humidities, we'll continue to headline.
After two days (Today and Thursday) of increased fire weather concerns, cooler temperatures, higher humidities, and even a few showers north of the Umpqua Divide and northern Cascades, are expected Friday as an upper level trough swings through. Breezy winds are likely east of the Cascades once again Friday afternoon and evening, but should not be near as strong as those of Thursday, and relative humidities will also be much higher.
Dry but cooler weather is expected Saturday, then a warming and continuing drying trend is expect early next week as upper level ridging and the coastal thermal trough return. -BPN/Petrucelli
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5am to 2pm PDT Thursday for PZZ370.