Marine Weather Net

Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

MON

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ350 Forecast Issued: 219 AM PST Sun Nov 27 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
Today...Se Wind 5 To 10 Kt...Veering To W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less...Becoming 3 Ft In The Afternoon. Swell Nw 8 Ft At 12 Seconds... Subsiding To Nw 5 To 6 Ft At 11 Seconds. Rain.
Tonight...W Wind 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 5 Ft. Swell Nw 9 To 10 Ft At 12 Seconds. Rain.
Mon...Nw Wind 15 To 20 Kt...Veering To N Late In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 5 To 6 Ft. W Swell 4 Ft At 17 Seconds...Building To 6 Ft At 16 Seconds In The Afternoon. Rain.
Mon Night...Nw Wind 5 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 5 Ft. W Swell 6 Ft...Building To Nw After Midnight. Chance Of Showers.
Tue...W Wind 5 Kt...Becoming S 10 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 3 Ft In The Morning...Becoming 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Nw 8 To 10 Ft. Chance Of Showers.
Tue Night...S Wind 15 To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 4 Ft...Building To 5 To 7 Ft After Midnight. Swell Nw 7 Ft...Becoming W 5 Ft After Midnight. Showers.
Wed...S Wind 30 Kt...Becoming W 15 Kt In The Evening, Then... Easing To 5 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 10 To 12 Ft...Subsiding To 6 Ft After Midnight. Swell Nw 7 Ft...Building To Nw 12 Ft.
Thu...Sw Wind 5 Kt...Backing To S In The Afternoon, Then... Backing To Ne 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 4 Ft In The Morning... Becoming 2 Ft Or Less, Then...Becoming 3 Ft After Midnight. Nw Swell 11 To 12 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
343am PST Sunday Nov 27 2022

Synopsis
An active week of weather is expected. A Winter Weather Advisory is out for Eastern Douglas County and portions of the Cascades for Sunday into Monday morning, with the most intense snowfall expected during the morning commute hours Monday morning. Active weather continues in the middle of the week with another front arriving Wednesday and heavy upslope snowfall in Norcal and SW Oregon expected.

TheNear Term - Rest Of Today Through Tonight
cast regarding the snowfall and winds Sunday into Monday has remained steady. A Winter Weather Advisory /PDXWSWMFR/ is in effect for the Cascade foothills and Cascades in southern Oregon from early Sunday evening through Monday afternoon, with the bulk of precipitation expected during the middle 12 hours...Late Sunday night through Monday morning. Snow levels will start out around 3500 to 4500 feet, fall to 2500 to 3000 feet by Monday morning, then settle at around 2000 to 2500 feet during Monday. This system will mainly impact those traveling over Highway 140/Lake of the s, Highway 62/Union Creek and Crater Lake, Highway 138/Diamond Lake, Highway 58/Willamette Pass, and to a lesser extent Highway 97 in Klamath County north of Chiloquin. As the last flurries taper off during Monday evening, snow levels may drop as low as 1200 feet.

The next system, expected to arrive Wednesday into Thursday, has not remained as steady. Snowfall amounts have ramped up as the southwest flow will induce strong orographic lifting support in the Coast Range, Western Siskiyou County, and Mt. Shasta City area. This will impact not just the Forest Service Roads, like Bear Camp road in Josephine County, but key points along I-5 as well. Over a 36 hour period Siskiyou summit is forecast to observe a foot of new snow, while Black Butte Summit and Mt. Shasta City are forecast to receive 19 inches. Snowfall in this area begins to pick up Wednesday night, and reaches a sustained peak through Thursday, although the highest six hour amount is currently forecast for the 10am to 4pm timeframe on Thursday.

This intense upslope flow will also be combined with gusty winds. In the Shasta Valley, around Weed, winds trended stronger Wednesday night. Gusts are currently forecast in the 40 to 45 mph range, which is when we have begun to observe strongly reduced visibilities along I-5 in the past. A strong southwest wind of 45 to 50 mph will also exist along the coast, especially south of Cape Blanco. This wind will drive around 2.5 inches of rain and wind driven waves into the coast. Urban flooding in the Port Orford area is unlikely because the tides are forecast to be about one foot lower the the Mean High High Water mark, but will be something to watch over time. Overall though the winds and rain along the coast will make for difficult driving conditions. A strong south-southwest wind will also be present east of the Cascades and is trending towards reaching impactful speeds along routes 31 and 395 in Lake County.

As Thursday night turns to Friday morning, model uncertainty increases during a critical point in the forecast. This uncertainty has the greatest impact on the snow level forecast. Solutions range between 5000 feet and down to the valley floors. This greatly changes the risk and impact of the forecast. For now, we are forecasting light snowfall amounts around half an inch in west side valleys Friday morning. As this will have impacts on the morning commute and how cold it will be, this will be another time period to monitor, and we will continue to track the trends. -Miles

Marine
Updated 330am PST Sunday 27 November 2022...Winds will gradually decrease overnight south of Cape Blanco. All waters will experience a lull in both winds and seas today. Another round of steep moderate northwest swell will move through this evening into Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches Wednesday and there is uncertainty as to how much south wind develops prior to the arrival of the front, but strong and gusty south winds are possible late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. -Sven

NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 4pm PST Monday for ORZ025-027-028.

CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 10am PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.