Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 8 Ft This Afternoon. Wave Detail: N 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And W 5 Ft At 16 Seconds. |
| Tonight...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: N 5 Ft At 6 Seconds, W 6 Ft At 15 Seconds And W 3 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Fri...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And W 6 Ft At 15 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Ne Wind 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And W 6 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Sat...Ne Wind 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: N 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And W 5 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...Ne Wind 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: N 4 Ft At 5 Seconds, Nw 4 Ft At 12 Seconds And Nw 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. |
| Sun...Ne Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: N 3 Ft At 5 Seconds, W 4 Ft At 14 Seconds And Nw 3 Ft At 18 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...Ne Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: N 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And W 4 Ft At 16 Seconds. |
| Mon...Ne Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And W 4 Ft At 14 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...Ne Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: N 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And W 4 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 330am PST Thu Jan 23 2025 High pressure aloft over the eastern Pacific remains the dominant weather feature for much of the forecast period. The position of the ridge has the Pacific storm door closed to the region, and this will be the case through the weekend and much of next week. An inside slider shortwave will move in from the north on Friday, eventually developing into a closed low pressure over southern California by early Sunday and slowly meander eastward through early next week. Aside from this shortwave/trough and it's influences on the region this weekend, daily changes will be minimal in the overall weather. Unlike many of the mornings in recent memory, skies are clear across the region this morning. There are some hints on satellite, however, of low clouds/patchy fog developing in the Umpqua Basin and portions of the Illinois Valley/Grants Pass area. The remainder of the area will continue to see clear skies through the morning, and the rest of the day will be quite similar to yesterday's conditions. Models are showing a bit more cirrus today, especially over northern and western areas as the ridge flattens, but there should still be at least some filtered sunshine for most. Despite the cloud free conditions, stagnant conditions remain in area valleys, and the Air Stagnation Advisory remains in effect until Friday when upper level conditions are expected to change. A shortwave slides down the back side of the ridge on Friday and eventually carves out a cut off low over California Saturday into Sunday. With the trajectory of this energy being largely over land, there won't be much moisture available to bring precipitation to the region. It's not out of the question, however, for a few flurries to get wrung out along the mountains up near Crater/Diamond Lakes, but precipitation chances have trended downward, so we don't expect much aside from some increased cloud cover. The more notable aspect of this trough will be the winds associated with it. The orientation of the flow will bring deep layer, north to northeasterly flow to the region, and a strong pressure gradient will develop across the area. This will bring strong N-NE winds late Fri/Fri night that will become NE-E Sat. Mid-level (700 mb) winds are projected to be in the 35-45kt range with even up to ~55kt over the mountains Fri night/Sat morning. Expect widespread breezy to windy conditions over the upper slopes/ridges and also some of the valleys that happen to align with the wind (Illinois, Shasta and Scott valleys). Local fire weather guidance is showing NE winds in the 25-35 mph range at many of the RAWS sites with gusts of 45-55 mph over the higher terrain. It isn't often that we need wind advisories for NE offshore flow, but this may be one where it's necessary in some places. Models are showing a strong MFR-RDD pressure gradient (in reverse compared to what we usually see with southerly storms). In this case, we'll see stronger northerly winds through the Shasta Valley that may also bring very breezy conditions to Mount Shasta City on Saturday. We'll continue to evaluate wind advisory potential. Fortunately, given the time of year, this pattern won't bring too many impacts outside of the gusty winds. However, those with prescription burn interests should keep an eye on the forecast for the weekend period. While it's been persistently cold and moist in the valleys, the mid-slopes and upper ridges have been dealing with warmer and much drier conditions. Daytime relative humidities will trend lower Friday into the weekend, with values falling into the teens and low 20s at mid-slopes and upper ridges on Sunday. These values coupled with the stronger winds and little to no precipitation could have implications on prescription burning around the region and could lead to some potential for pile burns to escape. Please use caution if planning to burn this weekend. Another notable aspect of this pattern is that it should bring some fresh air to the area and a reprieve from the persistently stagnant conditions in the valleys. Additionally, a cold air mass will filter in with this trough. When coupled with the dry east to northeasterly flow, this will lead to very cold temperatures over the weekend and into early next week, with the coldest temperatures expected Saturday night in to Sunday morning. Temperatures east of the Cascades will dip into the low teens/single digits with teens/low 20s for valleys west of the Cascades. We'll be considering a cold weather advisory for the combination of the cold/wind expected Friday night through Saturday night. Right now, apparent temperatures near or even below zero are possible during this period.Even the coast (north of Cape Blanco) will likely see freezing temperatures (80-90% chance) with this pattern Saturday morning through Tuesday morning. High pressure returns early next week, and we'll likely see the return of the stagnant air pattern with dry conditions expected to continue through nearly the end of the month. Eventually the ridge starts to break down toward the end of next week, with ensembles indicating a return to active weather around the beginning of February. /BR-y Marine Updated 230am Thursday, January 23, 2025...Wind driven seas will persist through the remainder of the day. Wave heigheights will increase into tonight and early Friday as the gusty northerly winds strengthen. Seas will become hazardous to small crafts during this time with wave heigheights reaching up to 12 feet mid day Friday in the outer waters. The thermal trough will strengthen by Friday night with gale force winds anticipated in the southern waters, mainly south of Gold Beach. Conditions hazardous to smaller crafts will remain in place for all other locations. There is an offshore component/NE wind by Saturday, so the most hazardous conditions will be farther away from shore while locations closer to shore could see lower waves and weaker winds. -Smith NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Friday for ORZ021-023>026- 029>031. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10am PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370. Gale Warning from 10am Friday to 10am PST Saturday for PZZ356- 376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 4pm this afternoon to 10am PST Friday for PZZ370-376. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm PST this afternoon for PZZ376. Small Craft Advisory from 10am Friday to 10am PST Saturday for PZZ376. |
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