Marine Weather Net

Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

N
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

MON

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

N
WINDS
25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ350 Forecast Issued: 816 AM PDT Sun May 09 2021

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
Today...Ne Wind 5 To 10 Kt...Backing To N Early In The Afternoon, Then...Rising To 15 To 20 Kt Late Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 5 Ft At 9 Seconds. Chance Of Showers.
Tonight...N Wind 20 To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 6 Ft. Nw Swell 5 Ft At 11 Seconds.
Mon...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt...Rising To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 3 To 6 Ft. Nw Swell 5 Ft At 11 Seconds.
Mon Night...N Wind 25 Kt...Easing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 5 To 7 Ft. W Swell 4 Ft.
Tue...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 4 To 6 Ft. W Swell 4 Ft.
Tue Night...N Wind 20 To 25 Kt...Easing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 4 To 6 Ft. W Swell 3 Ft.
Wed...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 4 To 5 Ft. W Swell 3 Ft.
Thu...N Wind 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Mixed Swell W 3 Ft And S 1 To 2 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
903am PDT Sunday May 9 2021

A weak short wave is slipping down the back side of th upper ridge offshore this morning, bringing mostly light showers generally close to the coast in Coos and Douglas counties. Although there is extensive cloud over over Lake and northern Klamath counties, models have backed off on any precipitation in this area and radar is not indicating any precipitation as well. With this have removed chances of precipitation east of the Cascades this morning. Sven

Marine
Updated 800am PDT Sunday 9 May 2021...A thermal trough will deepen into Monday, likely remain deep into Tuesday, and will persist near the coast through much of the week. Gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas are expected, with the strongest winds south of Cape Blanco during the afternoon and evening hours.

Seas will remain steep south of Port Orford into this afternoon. Late today into Monday, seas south of Gold Beach will become very steep with winds approaching gale force. Meanwhile, seas north of Gold Beach become steep. Then, gales are likely south of Cape Blanco late Monday as winds and seas reach a peak with steep seas persisting in the northern waters.

Winds and seas are forecast to persist near that peak Monday night through Tuesday night, before winds diminish some Wednesday. Even then, small craft conditions are likely to persist until late in the week.

Updated aviation discussion.



Upper level energy and a weakening frontal boundary will move through the forecast area this morning and later today. In general, models are expecting more cloud cover with some spotty precipitation close to the coast and near the northern boundaries of our forecast area. The probability of precipitation is around 10 to 20 percent today as the weakening front pushes into the coast. If anything does end up falling, it will feel like drizzle with limited accumulation along the coastal range and the northern portions of our warning area.

As for the rest of the day, skies will remain mostly cloudy with the sun breaking through at times. Temperatures should be fairly similar to what was observed yesterday. Also, the weakening cold boundary never really pushes inland and stays offshore for the remainder of Sunday.

By Sunday night and Monday morning a long wave trough builds and strengthens in eastern Oregon before it begins to move south. This will result in a strong thermal trough building along the Oregon coastline as east to northeast winds funnel down the Cascades. The notable impacts will be a warming and drying trend Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will end up being 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal. This warmer than normal trend will continue into Wednesday as the thermal trough and the axis of warm air moves eastward. High pressure will also begin to build over the area Wednesday into Thursday. As a result of these two features, Wednesday will likely be our warmest day with highs 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal.

We're not forecasting any records at this time, but Mt. Shasta City will come close to a record on the 12th. The old record was 87 set back in 1976. We still have roughly a 50 percent chance to break that based on the current ensemble forecasts. As of right now, we are forecasting a high of 85 on the 12th for Mt. Shasta City.

Lastly, models show a trough approaching the Pacific Northwest around the Friday timeframe. Without much moisture accompanying this trough, the probability of precipitation is only 10%. Overall, the weather forecast remains somewhat active over the next 7 days, yet it stays pretty mundane.

-Smith

AVIATION...For the 09/12Z TAF Cycle...Breezy northwest to north winds will develop again this afternoon into the evening. A mix of IFR/MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) ceilings at the coast...with mountain obscuration in the Coast Range...are expected to lift to VFR and clear by the afternoon. Ceilings will return this afternoon and overnight, first at the coast and coastal valleys early this evening, potentially spreading into the Umpqua Valley tonight. Ceiling bases at the coast tonight will likely be MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) but there is about a 20 percent chance of these ceilings lowering to IFR late tonight. Keene

MARINE...Updated 300am PDT Sunday 9 May 2021...A thermal trough will deepen into Monday, likely remain deep into Tuesday, and will persist near the coast through much of the week. Gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas are expected, with the strongest winds south of Cape Blanco during the afternoon and evening hours.

Seas will remain steep south of Port Orford into this afternoon. Late today into Monday, seas south of Gold Beach will become very steep with winds approaching gale force. Meanwhile, seas north of Gold Beach become steep. Then, gales are likely south of Cape Blanco late Monday as winds and seas reach a peak with steep seas persisting in the northern waters.

Winds and seas are forecast to persist near that peak Monday night through Tuesday night, before winds diminish some Wednesday. Even then, small craft conditions are likely to persist until late in the week.

-DW/Keene

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR... CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 5am PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 5pm this afternoon to 2pm PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 5pm this afternoon to 5am PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370.