Marine Weather Net

Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU

S
WINDS
5 KNOTS

THU NIGHT

E
WINDS
5 KNOTS

FRI

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ350 Forecast Issued: 829 PM PST Wed Dec 02 2020

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
Tonight...S Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 6 Ft At 21 Seconds...Building To 7 To 8 Ft At 20 Seconds After Midnight. Patchy Fog.
Thu...S Wind 5 Kt...Backing To E Late In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 12 To 13 Ft At 18 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Rain.
Thu Night...E Wind 5 Kt...Backing To Ne In The Late Evening And Overnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 11 Ft At 17 Seconds... Subsiding To 9 To 10 Ft At 16 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 13 Seconds After Midnight.
Fri...Ne Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 10 Ft.
Fri Night...Ne Wind 5 Kt...Veering To Se After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 9 To 10 Ft...Subsiding To 7 To 8 Ft After Midnight.
Sat...Se Wind 10 Kt...Veering To S In The Afternoon. Cape Arago Southward, S Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 6 To 7 Ft.
Sat Night...S Wind 15 Kt...Veering To Sw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 3 Ft In The Evening... Becoming 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 8 To 9 Ft...Building To 10 Ft After Midnight. Chance Of Rain.
Sun...Wind Variable Less Than 5 Kt...Becoming Ne 5 Kt In The Afternoon, Then...Backing To N In The Evening...Veering To E After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 10 Ft.
Mon...Se Wind 5 Kt...Veering To Sw In The Evening, Then... Backing To Se After Midnight. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less. W Swell 5 Ft...Building To 18 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
827pm PST Wednesday Dec 2 2020

Satellite imagery shows a mostly clear sky out there this evening. This is allowing radiational cooling with temperatures falling quickly in most valley locations west of the Cascades. There are still some east-southeast winds above the low-level inversion and these are affecting the south end of the Rogue Valley near Ashland, where temperatures are still in the mid 50s. But, pockets of fog are developing this evening in the areas that retained the low clouds/fog the longest today. Expect fog/low clouds to expand and fill into most west side valleys again overnight. The low temperature forecast looks on track with west side upper slopes/ridges warmer than surrounding valleys, similar to previous nights. Meantime, an upper trough offshore and its associated surface cold front will approach the coast tonight. The cold front will largely dissipate as it pushes onshore Thursday. Aside from a slight chance of rain along the coast Thursday morning/early afternoon, the forecast area will probably stay dry. The upper ridge rebuilds over the area Friday into Saturday. Another trough and cold front will arrive at the coast late Saturday afternoon. This will once again bring a chance of rain at the coast, and perhaps as far east as the Umpqua Valley/Cascades, but significant precipitation is unlikely. -Spilde

Marine
Updated 820pm PST Wednesday 02 Dec 2020...Long period west to northwest swell will remain over the waters through Thursday afternoon. This will combine with incoming tide and a shorter period west-northwest swell at 13 seconds to bring a much increased chance of sneaker waves...with highest risk through this evening, but a continued risk into Thursday morning.

Swell dominated seas will become high with very long period this evening, continuing into Friday evening. This will bring increased risk of hazardous bar crossings. Conditions are expected to briefly improve Friday night into Saturday morning. But, a cold front is likely to reach the waters by Saturday afternoon with seas possibly becoming high and steep again into Sunday.

Another long period heavy swell could move into the waters on Monday, ahead of the next front. Sven

SHORT TERM...The skies over the forecast area this afternoon are almost entirely clear, now that fog and low clouds have cleared from most of the Umpqua Valley and Rogue Valley near Grants Pass. Sunny skies and increased evaporation likely helped to remove some of the surface moisture that's contributed to 7 days of fog in a row in Medford. That means that tonight will feature fog and low clouds in similar areas compared to last night/this morning, in the Umpqua and Illinois Valleys and in and around Grants Pass. While fog/freezing fog is still possible in other valleys west of the Cascades, these conditions aren't likely until Thursday morning, and only patchy fog is expected.

Temperatures warmed up nicely to the upper 50s in the Medford area today without the fog/low clouds. An Air Stagnation Advisory is valid through Saturday morning for most valleys away from the coast. Though there has been increased mixing over portions of the Advisory area today, looking closely at the air quality monitors in the region suggests diminished mixing today compared to previous days west of the Cascades. East of the Cascades there were some breezes this afternoon, but they will diminish this evening. We'll be addressing the Advisory with partner agencies in the near-term to ensure that the air remains sufficiently stagnant for an Air Stagnation Advisory into Saturday. Enough mixing is expected with Saturday's front to warrant the ending of the Advisory there, with high confidence.

Long TermSaturday (12/05) through Wednesday(12/09)... The long term forecast begins similarly to the end of the short term forecast, with the exception that the ridge of high pressure will begin breaking down ahead of a front moving in Saturday night into Sunday. This front will be rather weak, expending most of its energy breaking down the ridge instead of providing any sort of significant rainfall. Still this front will break up the stagnant airmass over our area, and bring some rainfall to the Coast and some snow to portions of the Cascades. Some of our West Side Valleys (Rogue, portions of the Umpqua) are forecast to stay dry at this point. Snow levels will be around 5000 to 6000 feet, so winter travel impacts are expected to be minimal.

The front will exit the area quickly, bringing the ridge of high pressure back to the area. Stagnating air will be possible once again, and fog and freezing fog will be possible for the valleys during the overnight/morning time periods in the extended forecast.

Another front looks to move across the Pacific Northwest in the far extended forecast. This front looks to be focused farther north than our area, bringing the possibility for some rain to areas west of the Cascades north of Roseburg. This is still far out in the forecast, and the models/ensembles are in general disagreement. Therefore, expect this to change, and let us hope that this front moves a bit farther south so we can start accumulating snow pack in mountains. -Schaaf

AVIATION...For the 02/18Z TAFs...IFR and LIFr conditions exist in the Umpqua Basin and Illinois Valley and the Grants Pass area. Recent satellite trends suggest the burn off in this area is slow and it's possible conditions at Roseburg may not improve until after 22z. Currently the TAF shows conditions improving at 22z, so watch for updates.

Meanwhile weak to moderate southeast, offshore flow was sufficient enough to prevent low clouds and fog from developing in the Rogue Valley and guidance indicates this should be the case tonight. However could not rule out patchy fog with limited vertical visibility towards 15z tomorrow morning.

For the coast and east of the Cascades, VFR conditions are expected through Thursday morning. -Petrucelli

MARINE...Updated 200pm PST Wednesday 02 Dec 2020...Long period west to northwest swell will remain over the waters through Thursday afternoon. This will combine with incoming tide and a shorter period west-northwest swell at 13 seconds to bring a much increased chance of sneaker waves...with highest risk from late morning through this evening, but a continued risk into Thursday morning.

Swell dominated seas will become high with very long period this evening, continuing into Friday evening. This will bring increased risk of hazardous bar crossings. Conditions are expected to briefly improve Friday night into Saturday morning. But, a cold front is likely to reach the waters by Saturday afternoon with seas possibly becoming high and steep again into Sunday.

Another long period heavy swell could move into the waters on Monday, ahead of the next front. -DW/Petrucelli

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Saturday for ORZ029>031. Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Saturday for ORZ023>026. Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7pm PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.