Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Wind 5 Kt...Rising To 10 To 15 Kt Until Early Morning, Then...Backing To Se 20 Kt Late Tonight. Cape Arago Southward, S Wind 10 To 20 Kt...Rising To 30 Kt. Wind Waves 5 To 6 Ft...Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft In The Evening, Then...Building To 5 To 8 Ft After Midnight. Swell W 9 To 11 Ft At 12 Seconds. Showers Likely In The Evening, Then Rain After Midnight.|
|Sun...Se Wind 25 Kt...Becoming S In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon, Then...Rising To Gales 35 Kt Late In The Afternoon. Cape Arago Southward, S Gales 40 Kt... Easing To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 11 To 14 Ft. W Swell 10 To 11 Ft At 13 Seconds...Building To 12 Ft At 15 Seconds In The Afternoon. Showers And Slight Chance Of Tstms.|
|Sun Night...S Gales 35 Kt...Easing To 30 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Wind Waves 8 To 11 Ft. W Swell 18 To 20 Ft At 17 Seconds...Building To 25 Ft At 16 Seconds After Midnight. Showers And Slight Chance Of Tstms.|
|Mon...S Wind 30 Kt...Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 7 To 10 Ft. Swell W 22 To 25 Ft. Showers.|
|Mon Night...Sw Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 6 To 8 Ft. Swell W 19 To 21 Ft. Showers.|
|Tue...S Wind 20 To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 7 To 8 Ft. Swell W 17 To 18 Ft...Subsiding To W 14 To 15 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain.|
|Tue Night...Sw Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 4 To 6 Ft. Swell W 11 To 12 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Wed...S Wind 15 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft Or Less... Becoming 3 Ft After Midnight. Swell W 11 To 13 Ft.|
|Thu...S Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft In The Morning... Becoming 2 Ft Or Less. Swell W 11 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Medford OR
411pm PDT Sat Oct 23 2021
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...A front of weak to moderate strength provided some wet weather today with light to locally/occasionally moderate rain this morning that has transitioned to showers. Amounts of about a tenth of an inch to a half inch have been common, with around an inch and a half in the Curry County mountains. There will be about a 6-hour lull this evening with winds beginning to increase ahead of the main event.
The main event is a relatively warm, but potent early season storm with the bulk of its impacts late tonight through Sunday evening (except into early Monday in Modoc County, and after the storm...dangerous high surf at beaches Sunday evening through Monday night). Those impacts include heavy rain in northern California, and strong winds at: the coast, Shasta Valley, much of the east side, over the higher terrain, and the southern half of the Rogue Valley/from Medford southward. The wind advisory was expanded to include much of the Klamath Basin, mainly higher elevation areas surrounding Klamath Falls. Gusts to 45 mph will affect the locations listed above, except gusts to 70 mph at the coast, and up to 60 mph near Weed, over the Warner Mountains, and near Summer Lake.
Snow levels will rise to a peak of around 10,000 feet msl late tonight, then fall to around 5500 ft msl by Sunday evening. The northern end of the focus of heavy rain with this storm will include western and southern Siskiyou County, well warranting the Flood Watch and burn scar Flash Flood Watches that are in effect. The heaviest rain late tonight through Sunday will occur roughly in a box connecting Brookings to Somes Bar to Mt. Shasta to Canby on the north end and San Francisco to Sacramento to Lake Tahoe on the south end. Storm total amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected for the Curry County Mountains/Kalmiopsis Wilderness into western and southern portions of Siskiyou County, and also southern Modoc County.
On Sunday evening, the cold front will exit our area to the east and southeast while the closed upper low will be offshore of Vancouver Island. An associated surface trough will approach the coast overnight with showers moving into our coast and also lingering over our northern California counties.
The trough will weaken as it moves inland Monday afternoon through Monday night with precipitation mainly for Coos, Curry, Douglas, Josephine, and far northern Jackson counties. The snow level will be around 5500 ft msl as this weak disturbance produces a few inches of snow over the southern Oregon Cascades, mainly around Diamond Lake and Crater Lake.
Tuesday morning through Saturday night...Active weather continues into the extended period, though storm systems will be considerably weaker compared to what is expected late tonight into Sunday. The extended period begins with the region under northwest flow with a trough axis well to the east. A fast moving, weakening front will arrive Tuesday morning and this will reinvigorate showers through Tuesday, especially west of the Cascades.
Showers continue into Wednesday morning, but will gradually taper off from southeast to northwest Wednesday afternoon and evening as upper level ridging begins to build into the region. This will shift the storm track northward, but there is uncertainty in how far northward and the resultant extent of drying. Models and their respective ensembles diverge in their solutions from late Wednesday onward. The GFS keeps the fire hose aimed at the Oregon coast Wedensday night, shifts it slightly north Thursday, then sags the front south through the region Friday. The EC on the other hand, aims the fire hose at the Washington coastline late Wednesday into Thursday and doesn't bring the front through until late Friday into Saturday. The EC solution would have dry conditions for the region Wednesday through Friday, while the GFS keeps precipitation going Wednesday into Friday. Looking at the ensembles, there's good agreement among the EC members in a dry period beginning late Wednesday. The GFS ensembles, however, show a variety of solutions during that time frame, leading to lower confidence in any one particular solution. Have a leaned on the NBM and toward the drier EC for the forecast in the extended, which focuses precipitation chances along the coast and across the northwestern portions of the forecast area.
Despite the disagreement with the Thursday/Friday system, there is better agreement among the deterministic models and their ensembles in a period of quieter conditions Saturday into next Monday under a period of ridging. While precipitation during this time can't be ruled out, it doesn't look as stormy as it has been in recent days, and this could result in conditions more favorable for Halloween festivities. /BR-y
Updated 230pm PDT Saturday 23 October 2021... Small Craft Advisory winds will remain in the ara through this evening.
Very deep low pressure well offshore early Sunday morning (943mb is similar pressure to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane) will send a strong front onshore. Dangerous marine conditions are expected early Sunday through at least Monday. Storm force southerly winds are expected from Cape Blanco northward with gales south of Cape Blanco early Sunday morning through late Sunday morning. Historically large west swell will follow the front and very high and very steep seas will continue into Tuesday. Along the shoreline, breaking wave heigheights around 35 feet are possible.
Very high and very steep seas will persist into Tuesday. Winds will subside Tuesday, but seas will remain steep through Wednesday. Keene/Miles
NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...High Wind Warning from 2am Sunday to 2am PDT Monday for ORZ030-031. Wind Advisory from 2am Sunday to 2am PDT Monday for ORZ029>031. High Wind Warning from 2am to 11am PDT Sunday for ORZ021-022. High Surf Warning from 7pm Sunday to 5am PDT Tuesday for ORZ021-022. Wind Advisory from 2am to 11am PDT Sunday for ORZ026.
CA...High Wind Warning from 2am Sunday to 2am PDT Monday for CAZ085. Wind Advisory from 2am Sunday to 2am PDT Monday for CAZ085. Flood Watch from 2am PDT Sunday through Sunday afternoon for CAZ080-082. Flash Flood Watch from 2am PDT Sunday through Sunday afternoon for CAZ080-083. High Wind Warning from 9pm this evening to 2pm PDT Sunday for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters... Small Craft Advisory until 1am PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 1am to 11am PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11am Sunday to 5am PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Storm Warning from 1am to 11am PDT Sunday for PZZ350-370. Gale Warning from 11am Sunday to 5am PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.