Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas Subsiding To Around 4 Ft.|
|Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sun...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
801pm EST Fri Jan 17 2020
High pressure will slip offshore late tonight, allowing for a brief weekend warmup prior to the next cold frontal passage Sun morning. Scattered showers will occur ahead of the front from late Sat afternoon up until it's passage Sunday morning. Much colder temperatures will follow during the upcoming work-week as air, of Arctic origin, dips into the Carolinas.
Public: Latest forecast looking aok. No major changes needed or expected. Will however tweak a few elements based on latest observations and resulting trends, but again no categorical changes needed.
Latest winds and seas across the ILM NC Waters have dropped below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds and as a result the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has been allowed to expire at 6 pm. This overall diminishing and subsiding trend will continue, with the ILM SC Waters still forecast to fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds by Midnight tonight. The elongated center of surface high pressure will drop into the Carolinas tonight, resulting in the surface pg relaxing-some. Significant seas will peak early this evening followed by a subsiding trend due to the reduction and size of the short period wind-driven waves. An underlying 2 to 3 foot Easterly swell at 9 to 11 second periods will persist overnight into Sat.
Near Term - Through Saturday Night
Dry weather continues through tonight with strong surface high pressure centered just NE of the local area. With diminishing winds, temps will bottom out in the low/mid 30s most areas, except upper 20s in the normally coldest spots. As the high slides eastwards, the NE flow tonight will transition to SE on Sat allowing for warmers temps and dewpoints than today...highs in the 50s to near 60. After a dry morning, rain chances will increase a bit through the day as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Not much in the way of forcing during the daytime period, so Probability of Precipitation are capped in the 20-40% range, highest near the coast where low-level convergence will be greatest. Better chance for rain arrives after midnight Sat night (50-60% Probability of Precipitation everywhere) with the frontal passage. but not expecting heavy pcpn.
Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
Majority of the rain will be offshore by Sunday morning, with a few lingering light showers possible. Cold front moves through Sunday morning with winds shifting to the NW and dewpoints dropping fast throughout the day. Cold advection, however, lags behind and doesn't really set in until Sunday night, allowing temps Sunday to rise to low 60s under clearing skies. Temps drop fast to around 30 degrees Sunday night as surface high pressure builds in over Central US. Temps around 10 degrees below normal Monday and Monday night due to strong cold advection of arctic air, with highs in the mid 40s and lows in the mid 20s.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
Tuesday and Tuesday night is setting up to be one of the coldest days so far this season, with highs in the low 40s and lows around 25 degrees. A strong upper level trough digs down across the SE US Tuesday into Tuesday night, that may lead to some clouds and a possible flurry or two. Will be pretty tough though given very dry air in place at the time. The European model has a low pressure system develop off the east coast Wednesday through Thursday keeping precipitation close to our coast, but favoring a more dry forecast for now. Air mass will begin to modify Wednesday night into Thurs as ridge builds over the Southeast and surface high shifts slowly eastward. Overall, will see a rebound toward normal or above normal temps Thurs into Fri, with any rain holding off until possibly this weekend.
A Small Craft Advisory continues through this evening, with gusts to 25 kt and 6 ft seas continuing out 10-20 nm. Improving marine conditions then for late tonight and Sat as surface high pres retreats to the E and Cold Air Advection ends. Winds and seas then ramp up again Sat night ahead of the next cold front, with another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions expected by the evening hours, with SW winds gusting to 25 kt and seas again up to ~6 ft. Dominant periods in the 5-6 second range.
Small Craft conditions likely continue through at least Sunday afternoon. SW winds early Sunday around 20 kts become NW by the evening around 15 kts, with seas 5-7 ft slowly decreasing to 3-5 ft by Sunday night, a 7 sec SW swell. High pressure builds over central US Sunday night, setting up northerly winds across our area Mon- Thurs. Some guidance hinting at a development of an offshore low late Tues into Wednesday that would lead to winds increasing to possible SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria, but confidence low. Winds veer to northeasterly Thursday and then easterly on Friday as the aforementioned surface high shifts north of our area and then further offshore to the northeast allowing return flow to develop. Seas 2-4 ft Monday through Friday, with occasional 5 footers late Tuesday and again on Thursday, predominantly 5-6 sec NE wind wave.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ254-256.