Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 6 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sun...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 238pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 2am EDT Wednesday...Potential for stronger to possibly severe thunderstorms on Thursday. The Gale Watch is now a Gale Warning for frequent gusts over 35 kts. Chance for sea fog decreases into tonight as winds increase. Looks to be trending colder for low temps Thursday night. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Potential for stronger or possibly severe storms ahead of cold front on Thursday. 2) Periods of sea fog may continue to impact nearshore waters and adjacent coastal areas through tonight. 3) Potential for Patchy Frost/Light Freeze Thursday night/Friday morning. 4) Low-End Severe Risk Possible Late Sunday/Monday, followed by an extended period of below-normal temperatures and a risk for freeze/frost during the middle to late part of next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Potential for stronger or possibly severe storms ahead of cold front on Thursday. Amplified mid to upper trough will push a cold front through the area Thursday. Very warm and moist air ahead of the front will be replaced with much colder air behind it. High temps will come early on Thursday with temps up around 70 early morning and dewpoint temps in the low to mid 60s, along with gusty southerly winds. Isolated thunderstorms are expected, but the earlier timing and limited instability should somewhat limit the strength of any convective development. Overall, seems like the best chance of stronger storms will be mid to late morning inland to mid afternoon as the front moves eastward across the area with best dynamics from front, but the strength of the low level winds alone, above the surface will produce the potential for stronger wind gusts in showers or storms. SPC has outlined our area for marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms across a portion of the area, mainly north of a line from Kingstree to North Myrtle Beach. Winds will remain strong ahead and behind the front. The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast should be limited due to the fast movement of the system. Temps will drop through the afternoon as flow transitions to cooler NW winds behind the front, with readings a good 30 degrees lower than today by late afternoon on Thurs. KEY MESSAGE 2... Periods of sea fog may continue to impact nearshore waters and adjacent coastal areas through tonight. Southerly flow will maintain elevated dew points into Thurs. The warm moist air over the cooler shelf waters could lead to patchy sea fog across the near shore waters and coastal areas of southeast NC and northeast SC. The winds should increase enough ahead of the front this evening into Thurs to lower the overall risk though. Looks like greatest chance of sea fog will be along and off the coast of the tip of Cape Fear, especially along coastal Brunswick County. KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for Patchy Frost/Light Freeze Thursday night/Friday morning. Post-frontal surface high pressure builds rapidly over the Carolinas, becoming centered over the area by daybreak Friday. Strong Cold Air Advection through the first half of the night will wane as pressure gradient relaxes. This sets the stage for good radiational cooling during the second half of the night as winds diminish, potentially decouple, particularly inland. Expect mins in the lower to mid 30s, supporting a threat for patchy frost or light freeze, mainly in outlying/rural areas. The Frost/Freeze Program remains inactive; therefore no headlines will be issued. KEY MESSAGE 4...Low-end severe risk possible late Sunday/Monday, followed by an extended period of below-normal temperatures and a risk for freeze/frost during the middle to late part of next week. A warm front is forecast to lift north across the area Sunday afternoon. Strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of a strong cold front will support periods of showers and storms from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening/night. While instability remains the primary limiting factor, robust low-level shear may support a marginal threat for severe storms, with CSU ML ensemble guidance currently highlighting Monday as the window of greatest concern. best chance. We will continue to evaluate this severe potential as mesoscale details become clearer. In the wake of the cold front, a deep longwave trough will overspread the Eastern US as a chilly Canadian high builds over the area. This pattern will support an extended period of below normal temperatures and a elevated risk for frost/freeze risk for a few nights. Marine Through Thursday...Winds will increase as gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusts could approach 20 knots within the sea breeze this afternoon and sustained winds will continue to increase this evening, leading to sustained winds near 20 knots and gusts near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds tonight. The sustained winds will increase above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds on Thurs and should see gale gusts to 35 kts Thurs afternoon through Thurs night. The Gale Watch is now a Gale Warning for frequent gusts over 35 kts. Winds will remain strong as they shift from SW to W Thurs afternoon and then NW to N by Thurs eve. This strong southerly flow will push seas up above as high as 5 to 7 ft. Thursday night through Monday...Post-frontal offshore flow will allow winds and seas to subside rapidly Thursday night as high pressure builds over the area. There's high confidence in sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Friday through early Sunday with seas generally 2-3ft. Winds veer to southerly late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as a warm front lifts north, with winds increasing to 20-25kts. Seas respond accordingly, building to 6-7 ft late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions may persist through Monday, ahead of a strong cold frontal passage Monday evening. Climate Record High Temperatures for today, Wednesday, March 11th: ................... Wednesday Mar 11 Wilmington NC ......... 86 in 2016 Lumberton NC.......... 87 in 1925 N. Myrtle Beach SC.... 82 in 1997 Florence SC........... 86 in 2015 Lumberton and Florence are forecast to break record highs today. Coastal locations will be cooled by an afternoon sea breeze and have a lower chance to break existing records. A cold front will bring cooler air on Thursday and high temperature records are not expected to be threatened. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. SC...None. Marine Gale Warning from 2pm Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for AMZ250-252-254-256. |
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