Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late This Morning And Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Areas Of Dense Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Showers Likely. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Rain After Midnight.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Rain.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Rain Through The Day.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1154am EST Sunday Feb 28 2021
Unseasonably warm weather will continue into Monday before a cold front brings rain followed by cooler weather into midweek. Low pressure moving out of the Gulf of Mexico will lead to more rain Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure on Thursday will be followed by another chance of rain next weekend.
Thick fog across the marine waters today and tonight as warm moist air moves across cold waters has prompted a dense fog advisory for the coastal waters.
Near Term - Through Monday
The early spring preview will continue today with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s after fog and stratus burns off. Cooler numbers are on tap along the immediate coast though. Lows tonight will fall to the lower 60s. Highs Monday will be tempered a bit by clouds and rainfall, generally running lower to middle 70s though upper 60s are possible NW and along the immediate coast. For the moment, will defer on a dense fog advisory but do anticipate the need for one before daybreak for visibilities of one quarter mile or less.
High Temperature Records for February, 28th ------------------------------------------- Wilmington, NC 85 (1962) North Myrtle Beach, SC 83 (1962) Florence, SC 84 (2011) Lumberton, NC 84 (1997)
Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday Night
Cooler weather will arrive as high pressure builds in behind cold front through Monday night. Any lingering pcp through the evening will get pushed south of area and should see clouds diminish into Tues. Associated mid to upper trough will lift off to the northeast while southern portion lingers with cutoff low developing and moving east from Texas toward the southern Appalachians through Tues. This will produce increasing lift and rain chances Tues night into Wednesday as boundary to the south gets pushed back north as low pressure rides across the Southeast Tues night. Overall, rain to taper off Monday night with dry and cool weather for Tues followed by increasing clouds and rain spreading across the area from the south into Tues evening. Cold air will spread into the area with temps dropping near or below normal Monday night through Tues night.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
Low pressure will be moving across the Carolinas on Wednesday exiting off the coast Wednesday afternoon. Deep lift and moisture will produce a decent amount of rain into Wednesday with periods of moderate to possibly heavy rain before exiting off the coast by Wednesday evening High pressure builds down into the Carolinas from the northwest behind departing low Wednesday night through Fri. Latest models show a cutoff low opening into wave as deep trough moves across the east coast into next weekend. This could produce clouds and pcp back in forecast by the weekend, but latest models runs keep system to the south.
Through Monday: Warm moist air moving across the cool coastal waters will result in thick fog development today and tonight, possibly into Monday. Visibility is likely to be 1 NM or less, even as low as 1/4 mile at times with little improvement today and tonight. Expect S to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT today through Monday to become westerly Monday afternoon. There could be a period in the morning Monday during which winds run 15 to 20 KT. Seas of 3 to 4 FT today will build slightly to 3 to 5 FT for tonight and Monday.
Monday night through Thursday: Cold front will be sinking southeast through Monday night with high pressure building down behind it through Tues. NW winds behind front Monday evening will veer around into Tues becoming northerly. May see a short period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) Monday evening with brisk northerly winds into Tues keeping seas up to 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas will diminish through Tues as they veer around becoming more onshore and then increasing as low pressure rides across to the south of the waters. This will produce increasing onshore push with rising seas through Wednesday and possibly another brief period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) condition Wednesday night as low deepens off the Carolina coast with stiff northerly winds on back side of low as it moves off to the east. Northerly winds diminish through Thursday into Fri as high pressure builds into the area with seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1am EST Tuesday for NCZ107. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7am EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.