Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Isolated Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Day, Then Showers And Tstms Likely Through The Night.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
743pm EDT Sat July 20 2019
Synopsis: Dangerous daytime heat will be the main story this weekend into early next week. An approaching cold front will bring unsettled weather on Tuesday and potentially into Wednesday. Cooler temps are also forecast for mid to late next week as high pressure rebuilds from the north.
Near Term - Through Sunday Night
As of 3pm Saturday...Apparent temperatures not entirely on track to fully realize current heat warnings/advisories for today. Max-T values up to 1-3 degrees hotter Sunday, but based on present trends, will exclude coastal zones in heat products and address projected heat indices Sunday with an 'advisory' area-wide for NE SC and SE NC away from beach zones. This will need reassessment overnight, and how strong the downslope winds are expected, excessive heat warnings not out of the question.
H2O vapor channels show the extent of dry air about the region currently and convection nil to isolated this period, even vigorous sprouts along the Gulf Stream west-wall, have succumb to the shearing, arid flow aloft. Still, with intense surface heating and deeper moisture concentrated around 850 Sunday, have isolated TSTMs in our forecast for Sunday afternoon, quieting with heat loss late
Short Term - Monday Through Monday Night
As of 320pm Saturday...Monday will start off in status-quo fashion from the weekend as vertically stacked high pressure continues to reside just offshore. This again should limit afternoon/evening convective potential but think there be slightly more activity than Sat/Sunday as the ridge begins to push further offshore in advance of deep layered troughing. Will maintain 15-30% probability of precipitation during peak heating through the nighttime hours as a result. Otherwise, still heat concerns with highs in the upper 90s inland/low to mid 90s near coast. This along with dewpoints well into the 70s esp. for the eastern half of our CWA will likely lead to additional advisory for Monday. Monday night lows also well above normal in the mid to upper 70s within prefrontal SW flow regime
Long Term - Tuesday Through Saturday
As of 320pm Saturday...Tuesday currently looks to be the most unsettled day of the forecast as a slow moving front moves into the area associated with a large scale H5 trough moving over the entire East Coast. Some severe threat appears to be present with CAPE's creeping above 2000 J/KG in places, a bit more shear, and aforementioned forcing. Widespread flooding not anticipated but 1-2 inches or so possible within heavier thunderstorms that develop. Front will push just offshore into Wed. This should allow bulk of the precipitation to also move offshore, but as post frontal Nly flow collides with sea breeze still forecasting high probability of precipitation esp. near the coast. Will generally see lower rain chances inland but given inherent uncertainty with late July fronts, am far from ruling out activity for our western counties and have accounted for that in the forecast. The other big news through midweek will be considerably cooler temps, with low to mid 80s for Wednesday which is well below climo.
We continue to forecast slightly below temps through the second part of next week as mid/upper troughing persists over the Eastern U.S. and surface high pressure to our N/NE. Probability of Precipitation will also trend down, but not completely go away, and generally highest for our far SW counties which will be closest to the old front. That said, there is potential for fairly pleasant late July weather later next week behind the front esp. over our NC counties.
As of 3pm Saturday...Summer wave spectrum and winds nearly typical for the season, and gusty through peak diurnal heating. Wind-waves SSW-SW around 2 feet every 5 seconds, and SE waves of more distant origin, 1-2 feet every 9 seconds. This regime to continue through the weekend, with minimal to NIL TSTM activity. Mariners and beachgoers can expect SSW wind gusts to 25 mph inshore during the afternoon hours. With gusts confined in both area and time, no advisory planned at this time.
Main concerns in the marine forecast for next week are SW winds/seas surging to just below Small craft criteria (25kt/6ft) on Monpm ahead of approaching front, and then showers and thunderstorms developing later Tuesday through Wednesday as front moves into the area. The other challenge in the extended is strength of post-frontal N/NE flow for Wed/Thu. Not going quite as high as the GFS/WW3 solutions at this time which show an area of 20kt NE winds and associated 5ft wind waves, which would be a bit anomalous for this time of year. We will continue to watch and update as needed, and regardless, surf zone hazards will likely gradually shift from the south facing to the east facing beaches through early to mid next week with the wind shift. Marine conditions should improve later next week and into next weekend as high pressure settles over area
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8pm EDT Sunday for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-055-058-059.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8pm EDT Sunday for NCZ087-096-099- 105-107-109.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. MARINE...None