Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late This Evening, Then Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight, Becoming N Late. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Tstms Likely. Showers Likely.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely In The Morning.|
|Tue Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
321pm EDT Sat May 8 2021
A weak warm front will lift across the area Sunday. A cold front will bring a chance for rain Monday night followed by a midweek cooldown. Unsettled weather may continue through midweek as low pressure develops along stalled front to the south.
Near Term - Through Sunday Night
Upper level ridge with stable dry air in place over the Carolinas will bring benign weather over the next 36 hours. Surface high pressure system moving across the southeast will bring a wind today will bring a wind shift from the west to the northwest with variable directions overnight before a return to southerly flow overnight into Sunday. With a lingering pressure gradient between the SE high pressure and a low pressure system moving across the NE, gusty winds as high as 25 to 30 mph across the area is possible through sunset this evening. Temperatures and moisture (dew points) increase into Sunday with the return of south winds with wind gust potential once again as another low pressure system moves across the Ohio River valley. No chances for precipitation expected.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
A broad shortwave trough will move across the region Monday with the surface front moving across late Monday. Good chance to even likely probability of precipitation remain in place with the system via excellent forcing and decent moisture. A marginal risk for severe weather is in place as well for some areas moreso northern counties. Some differences in the forecast for Tuesday as parts of guidance wants to paint a drier scenario while others keep the front around along with higher moisture. Have opted to address with low chance pops. The battle for summer and spring like temperatures continues with summer values Monday and much cooler (lower to middle 70s) Tuesday.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
A seemingly fine line between a drier forecast and rather unsettled scenario as medium range continues to struggle with the position of a front to the south and its associated moisture. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is drier with the GFS the wetter of the two even advertising cyclogenesis offshore later in the period. Citing collaboration with adjacent offices maintained the gradient of higher probability of precipitation south with a mention elsewhere. Temperatures of course will be highly dependent on the eventual moisture layout but overall a bit below normal.
Through Sunday Night...Seas between 2 and 4 feet with wind gusts approaching 25 kts will create marginally hazardous conditions for inexperienced mariners and smaller water craft for the NC coastal waters through this evening. Conditions improve overnight with seas around 2 to 3 feet calming but variable shifting winds under 10 kts. Ahead of an approaching cold front to start the week, seas will increase as high as 4 to 6 feet Sunday night with SSW winds 20 kts gusting to 30 kts. These conditions will likely create another round of hazards for near shore boating interests.
Monday through Thursday...A decent southwest flow will be in place Monday on the order of 15-20 knots ahead of a cold front. The persistence and modest strength of this fetch will probably lead to a marginal Small Craft Advisory. Beyond Monday it seems a northeast to perhaps easterly flow at times will be in place. Wind speeds will be 10-15 knots perhaps a bit stronger at times. Significant seas are indicative of the winds with a healthy 3-5 feet possibly higher at times especially later in time.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ110.
Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252.