Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se This Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Diminishing To 5 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
710am EDT Tuesday July 14 2020
A ridge of high pressure will build over the area through the week, maintaining hot and humid weather along with isolated thunderstorms. Storms could increase in coverage again this weekend, as the ridge flattens and brings the storm track a little closer to the area.
Near Term - Through Wednesday
Slightly drier air has built into the Carolinas the wake of yesterday's convection and weak surface cold front now stalling just off the coast. The bigger changes have actually occurred aloft where the atmosphere is now sharply drier and a little warmer due to subsidence downstream of an upper ridge building in from the west. From a thermodynamic standpoint these changes should limit the coverage and intensity of any convection today as rising parcels will contend with a cap 10-20kft aloft and very dry air above 700 millibars. I'm only forecasting a slight chance (20 percent) of a shower or t-storm today in a few spots (seabreeze zone and Sandhills) with dry weather prevailing elsewhere. Highs should again rise into the 90s almost everywhere with heat indices 100+ degrees.
Mostly clear and quiet tonight with lows 73-77. A little stronger onshore wind on Wednesday may keep temperatures down a couple of degrees versus today, however dewpoints in the 70s will still produce heat indices near 100 degrees. Only isolated showers or storms are possible Wednesday despite a little more Atlantic moisture since the upper ridge will be located almost directly overhead.
Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night
The story for the short term will be a brief push of slightly cooler and drier air from the northeast. Some highs in the upper 80s are actually showing p in the forecast for Thursday. The mid levels will be very dry and generally hostile to convection although some sea breeze isolated activity cannot be ruled out.
Long Term - Friday Through Monday
After a very brief and somewhat isolated reprieve from the summertime doldrums hot and humid conditions return for the extended period. Trends are for the East to West oriented mid level ridge to control conditions through about Saturday or so, a little longer than previous cycles. Overall for the forecast the storyline of increasing probability of precipitation remains intact incorporating the recent trend. As for temperatures, perhaps a slight cooling trend late in the period with the increase in moisture but overall heat index values will continue to merit a look see each afternoon.
A weak front stalling off the coast this morning should lead to light northeast winds. However this afternoon's seabreeze should veer winds more directly onshore. Speeds should remain 10 kt or less. By Wednesday high pressure building down the East Coast from New England will establish a little better synoptic gradient and east winds should average 10 kt. There's still a southeast fresh swell at 7 seconds period that will be our dominant wave group today. Wave heigheights measured by buoys around 4 feet this morning should slowly decrease throughout the day, and will average only 2 feet by late tonight into Wednesday.
A very subtle northeast flow will be in place for a few hours shifting quickly to southeast via the sea breeze and synoptic conditions. This flow will be in place through about Saturday with more of a southwest flow developing later in the weekend into early next week as the Piedmont Trough becomes a bit more prominent. Still wind speeds should be ten knots or so at most with maybe a slight increase early next week. Significant seas will be mostly in a 2-3 ft narrow range.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.