Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Am...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Today...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 8 Ft In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. Showers.|
|Tonight...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt In The Evening, Then Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Thu...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
625am EST Sunday Nov 27 2022
Showers and a few thunderstorms today will give way to dry high pressure for early next week. Another cold front will bring the potential for showers Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by a dry and cooler end to the week. Temperatures will rebound on Saturday as high pressure moves offshore and southerly flow increases.
Near Term - Through Tonight
A large area of low pressure over the Missouri Bootheel shows evidence of becoming stacked on infrared satellite and is strengthening as a result. An occlusion over the southeastern US has led to the development of a triple point over the deep south that will track east of the southern Appalachians today and setting the stage for a combo warm front and cold front this afternoon.
The warm front is already working its way through the area with both temperature and dew point gradients being observed as of 9Z over much of the eastern SC and southeast NC. This front will eventually spread inland throughout the morning, bringing temperatures easily into the lower to mid 70s for highs this afternoon. Dew points are expected to surge above the mid 60s to near 70 along the coast.
Showers are also starting to develop inland and will continue to spread northeastward this morning and into the early afternoon, becoming heavy at times. As temperatures increase, isolated thunderstorms may develop late this morning and this afternoon. A few of these storms could bring a small chance of severe weather (more on this threat below).
Low level wind maxima will move across western SC and central NC coincident with peak heating. This will allow for gusty winds to mix to the surface with the potential for 35 mph gusts for most areas. A separate maxima is expected to develop along the coast with similar wind speeds possible for a brief period. In general, the strongest winds are confined near the triple point, so gusts up to 30 mph will be common along the coast (higher inland).
Concerning the severe weather potential this morning and early this afternoon: an isolated damaging wind gust continues to be possible. Instability will remain the main question as the day progresses. Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our area to a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for the potential damaging wind gust and isolated tornado. Lacking instability, overall lapse rates, and semi-linear hodographs tend toward a lower chance of severe weather. Latest model soundings indicate a slight upward trend in instability as their surface dew point recoveries lag observations.
While the latest Storm Prediction Center discussion mentions the potential for an isolated tornado, there is some argument to be made against this in favor of the extensively sheared environment advecting into the Carolinas this afternoon. SHERBE indices indicate that shear is too strong for the environment assuming hi-res models are capturing the offshore thermodynamic environment accurately. HREF ensembles also show instability is likely to be insufficient for updraft helicity to become a concern. Hodographs are semi-linear and the gradual turning in conjunction with the low level shear would lead to a physically longer path for developing updraft to persist, especially over limited SB/ML fuel. Probabilities do increase near the Gulf Stream and downwind over extreme eastern NC and the Outer Banks. Nearshore water temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s should negatively influence tornado chances along the immediate coast with a slightly improved chance inland as well.
The triple point and upper low will quickly exit off to the northeast late this afternoon and into this evening. Dry air will engulf the region with clearing skies arriving shortly after remnant cirrus exits. Westerly winds won't allow for significant cold air advection behind the cold front and winds will maintain mixing through Monday morning. Overnight lows in the upper 40s or lower 50s.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday
The column will remain quite dry through the period, as precipitable water hovers around 0.5" in deep WSW flow. Westerly winds Monday in wake of departing surface low will veer to the NNE Monday night as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic, then become E on Tuesday as the high transitions off the New England coast. Temperatures will be pretty close to seasonable norms, with daytime highs reaching the low to mid 60s, and overnight lows of 40-45.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
Models continue to suggest a weak coastal trough developing Tuesday evening, which would result in a NE wind component along the coast and a slight chance of a few light showers moving onshore across the coastal counties during the overnight hours. Any resulting Quantitative Precipitation Forecast would remain low...likely only a hundredth or two in a few spots. Chance for more significant rain will increase later Wednesday with the approach of a mid-level trough and associated surface front. Deep moisture will be maximized Wednesday afternoon/early evening in strong southerly flow. Precipitable water will surge to 1.6" Wednesday afternoon, along with temps that will climb into the lower 70s most areas. Rain will end from west to east Wednesday night, with dry and cool high pressure building in Thursday and Friday. The coldest night should be Thursday night, when temps away from the immediate coast are expected to fall to or below freezing. The surface high will move quickly off the Mid-Atlantic coast, allowing return flow and moderating temps for Saturday.
Onshore flow will continue to increase today as a warm front approaches the area this morning before being chased northward by an advancing cold front this evening. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected to rapidly develop this morning with deteriorating conditions through late morning and especially into the afternoon. A few gusts up to 34 knots are possible within the NC waters. S winds this afternoon become westerly behind the cold front this evening and remain gusty through Monday morning at the expiration of the current Small Craft Advisory.
Monday through Thursday: Offshore flow Monday will be on the order of 15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt, as strong surface low lifts well northeast of the area. High pressure will build across the Mid- Atlantic region Monday night and Tuesday, resulting in lighter winds which will veer to the NE. A weak coastal trough is expected to develop Tuesday evening, which may yield a few light showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but it will move inland Wednesday morning, allowing southerly flow to set up for the duration of Wednesday. The chance for showers will increase Wednesday evening along and ahead of a cold front, which will move off the coast overnight. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop Wednesday ahead of the front, but winds should be even stronger late Wednesday night into Thursday morning in post-frontal cold air advection. Winds will be slow to diminish on Thursday as surface high pressure builds across NC and maintains a decent gradient over the waters through most of the day.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for SCZ054-056. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10am this morning to 2pm EST this afternoon for NCZ107.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.