Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft After Midnight. Showers Likely.|
|Sun...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
910pm EST Thu Nov 21 2019
Clouds and temperatures will increase Friday ahead of a cold front. The front will cross the Carolinas over the weekend, with cooling into early next week. Another cold front will approach during the middle of next week.
No significant changes needed with the mid evening updates, occasional 16 kft clouds will result in partly cloudy wording for the overnight period.
Near Term - Through Friday Night
Surface high overhead gets driven south tonight by the approach of a cold front that is being driven by a strong northern branch trough moving through the Great Lakes. This boundary decelerates on Friday as it aligns with the zonal and confluent mid level flow. It will sink south across roughly half of our CWA. Ahead of it some milder air will flow into the region Friday into Friday night. With only weak baroclinicity and no forcing aloft (in fact, downward motion from the confluence) no rain is expected and the boundary's arrival only to be heralded by a wind shift.
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
Front stalled across or just north of the area Sat morning is shifted north during the day by low pressure moving northeast through the TN Valley. This allows for a period of strong warm advection, pushing highs into the upper 60s to lower 70s despite an abundance of cloud cover. Low pressure passes west of the area Sat, moving over the Mid-Atlantic states Sat night and dragging a cold front across the area. Instability ahead of the front is limited and convergence along the front is weak. Still expected to see a line of showers with the front with potential for an isolated thunderstorm, mainly near the coast.
Front will be offshore by daybreak with weak cold advection in place on Sun. Highs end up in the low to mid 60s with skies clearing out by early afternoon. Skies remain clear overnight as high pressure gradually builds in from the west. Light winds Sunday night will allow for some radiational cooling and lows will end up near climo.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
Sprawling surface high overhead Monday morning is quickly shifted offshore by progressive flow aloft. Mid-level pattern remains progressive into Tuesday night before amplifying shortwave moving across the central CONUS and weak ridging over the western Atlantic induce weak 5h troughing. Cold front is dragged into the area Wednesday night by storm moving from the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada. Moisture return ahead of the front will be key in shower coverage ahead of the front late Wed. Right now moisture appears to be lacking and will maintain inherited chance pop. Not a lot of cold air with the front, temps do drop a bit for Thu as high pressure builds in from the northwest, and temps end up near climo.
Winds of 10kt or less with high pressure moving across the area. As the high winds up to our south on Friday southerly winds will find themselves in the more typical 10-15kt range; bolstered by both the southward drift of the high as well as the approach from the northwest of a cold front. The front stalls across the waters Friday night nearly collapsing the wind fields. Seas will run 2-3 ft early in the period, build by about a foot on Friday, and then fall Friday night in the light winds.
Southwest flow will increase Sat into Sat night as cold front approaches from the west. Speeds 20 to 25 kt will be possible later Sat and Sat night before offshore flow develops and gradually weakens behind the front. Strong southwest flow will build seas over 6 ft Sat night into Sun. Surface high builds in from the west Monday with offshore flow backing to southwest for Tuesday as the center of the high moves south of the area. Southwest wind wave will be dominant through Sat night before the southerly swell component starts to become more pronounced early next week.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.