Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
321am EDT Sunday May 26 2019
Synopsis: Heat will return once again, as an upper ridge amplifies from the south. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible from time to time, but overall, expect hot and dry weather through at least mid-week.
Near Term - Through Monday
As of 315am Sunday...The heat switch getting flicked to the 'ON' position today, in wake of perturbations marching seaward off NC early this morning. A 'snap-back' upper ridge, coupled with compressed air parcels in trajectories off the mountains, and near full sun wattage, all leads to a broiling afternoon with near, to record heat.
A few current standings for the date: ILM 98 in 1953, FLO 102 in 1953, and LBT 101 in 1926. ILM most at risk of being replaced.
Although subsidence aloft and drying should suppress convection, the intense heat and associated convergence of a confined sea breeze front, could lead to a brief Probability of Precipitation up SHRA/TSTM (low-topped) into the afternoon heating, favored just inland of the coast. Monday, Memorial Day, very hot again. Short-wave energy could bring an isolated TSTM over SE NC Monday night from WNW to ESE late
Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday Night
As of 315am Sunday...The short term as well as the long term sounds like a broken record literally and figuratively as the pattern is changing little. Massive high pressure still dominated the weather and record highs will most likely continue to be broken. All but zero probability of precipitation in the forecast with highs well into the 90s and uncomfortable lows although the oppressive dewpoints have yet to arrive so the overnight periods will be more tolerable
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
As of 315am Sunday...Some hope for a methodical breakdown of the massive ridge through the period as Western Conus Energy begins to make its move albeit in a piecework fashion. The latest official forecast reflates this with a gradual increase in probability of precipitation although trending slowly up. Temperatures remain oppressive but may step back later n the week per the increase cloud cover and moisture.
As of 315am Sunday...SE waves of 2-3 feet every 5-6 seconds will be gradually replaced by SSW-SW waves 2 feet every 4-5 seconds, in response to the veering surface wind field today. Weak ENE swell every 11-12 seconds from a departing and distant ocean low will hardy be noticeable beneath the chopped wind- seas. No advisories, an isolated TSTM possible late Monday night NC waters. SW winds the rule this period, backing slightly in the afternoon inshore, and gustier.
Although there are subtle changes on the overall pattern mainly as the ridge breaks down and more of a westerly flow develops, winds and seas will remain very stable across the coastal waters. Expect mostly south to southwest of 10-15 knots and significant seas of 2-4 feet
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None