Marine Weather Net

Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THU

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ252 Forecast Issued: 834 PM EDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Isolated Showers And Tstms Late.
Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight.
Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Fri...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms.
Sun...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely . Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
827pm EDT Tuesday July 5 2022

Synopsis
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected most afternoons into the evenings. A front will pass sometime Saturday into Sunday followed by decreasing rain chances early next week.

Isolated convection over vicinity of Florence, Darlington and Marlboro will dissipate as diurnal heating cuts off, but an MCS riding down in NW flow into central NC will continue to drop S-SE. Although most of the convection will weaken and fall apart, may see some convection hold together enough to keep limited probability of precipitation near I-95 corridor or Pee Dee later this evening, mainly after 10pm. This will also spread some mid to high clouds southward overnight. Light southerly return flow at the surface will maintain a warm and humid summertime airmass with overnight lows and dewpoint temps in the mid 70s. Should see some patchy fog and some stratus mainly near the coast toward morning.

Near Term - Through Wednesday
Isolated showers and storms today along the sea breeze and inland thermal trough. These will likely dissipate quickly after sunset. Southwest winds increase overnight as a weak front lifts northward. A thin layer of near-surface moisture is likely to produce stratus tomorrow morning. There is always some question as to where exactly this stratus will be realized, but early indications are that the coast will have the best chance.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 90s to near 100 inland. Partial thickness values will be higher than Sunday which produced widespread readings in the mid and upper 90s. Models continue to produce quite a bit of midday cloud cover and convection during the afternoon. While there is likely to be a good amount of cumulus, it is unlikely that it will be widespread enough to impact temperatures significantly. Additionally, convection will likely initiate later in the day with a weak subsidence inversion delaying convection just enough to eek-out a couple extra degrees on the high temperatures. Given that our current forecast is on the upper edge of guidance, there could be some areas that don't reach Heat Advisory criteria based on these factors mentioned above. However, there is still a small chance of reaching Heat Warning criteria for areas that bake a little longer.

Regardless of the exact high temperature, the warm and humid air mass will prime the atmosphere for isolated convection along the thermal trough inland and the sea breeze. Elevated instability generated during the day will of more consequence overnight as an existing MCS will track eastward across the Ohio River Valley and the Virginias. Provided that the storm system moves through our area, the instability would maintain thunderstorm chances overnight. The main threat would be damaging winds. This is a conditional threat, but should be monitored as we continue to advertise a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) from the Storm Prediction Center.

Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday Night
For all intents and purposes the short and long term forecast can be summarized by looking at the day one through seven Quantitative Precipitation Forecast forecast from The Weather Prediction Center. Very high numbers for the Eastern Carolinas.

Guidance continues to develop a train of convective complexes in the northwest flow from Wednesday through Friday (even longer when the extended is considered) which move across each evening. The GFS is most aggressive while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is a little more tempered and seems more reasonable. Of course severe weather would be more than fair game with each feature. However it just seems a stretch for there to be this type of activity for three straight days (GFS) but of course if it was gonna happen it would this time of year. The forecast will reflect high probability of precipitation each evening but the stronger forced activity should occur Wednesday and again Friday. There just has to be some subsiding air (NVA) at some point. Certainly seems like the best opportunity to make up ground on the ongoing drought outside of a decent tropical system. Temperatures, almost an afterthought in this type of pattern will be a bit above normal throughout with highs in the lower to middle 90s each day and lows well into the steamy/moisture inundated 70s.

Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
The story continues from the short term period with the northwest flow in place late Friday and through most of the period. The feature of note is a cold front in the flow moving slowly Saturday and Sunday. Medium range guidance continues to like convection along this feature both days and this represents the best coupled forcing in the short and long term periods. We are advertising likely to even categorical probability of precipitation (certainly rare for the extended period in the summer)for later Saturday into Sunday. Indicative of the strength of the mid level trough is the temperature change in the wake of the front. There is decent support for highs lowering into the 80s Sunday and Monday somewhat cloud cover aided and lows in the upper 60s. Confidence is a bit lower on this aspect of the forecast however.

Marine
Through Wednesday: Southerly winds increase behind a lifting warm front this evening. Winds veer slightly overnight and increase to 10- 15 knots out of the SW. No significant wind shifts are expected thereafter as we settle into a typical summertime pattern. Seas generally 2-3 feet.

Wednesday Night through Sunday: With most of The Sound and Fury going to the public part of the forecast the marine does have at least something outside of the standard summertime forecast. Northwest flow shortwaves will periodically enhance the inland trough thus increasing winds across the waters at times to 15-20 knots mainly later Thursday and again Friday. Significant seas during this time may increase to 3-5 feet but should remain below headline criteria. For late in the period and weekend a significant wind shift may occur to northeast as a strong trough eases a cold front across the waters. Confidence is not high as we are talking about mid July but that is what the forecast represents for now.

NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...
Heat Advisory from 11am to 7pm EDT Wednesday for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-055-058-059. NC...
Heat Advisory from 11am to 7pm EDT Wednesday for NCZ087-096- 099-105-107-109.

Marine
None.