Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds And Sw 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Sw 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 118pm EST Wednesday Nov 5 2025 Synopsis High pressure will bring rain-free conditions and a slight warmup through today. A cold front will bring seasonable temperatures but no rain into early Thursday, followed by a warmup for the weekend with some showers around. A stronger cold front arrives late Sunday bringing much cooler temperatures and possibly the first freeze of the season across spots inland early next week. Near Term - Through Thursday Frontal boundary well to our northwest, running roughly from Ohio to the Red River. It will move through tonight with little more than a windshift due to its weak low level instability and no support for lift aloft in zonal flow. It's weak baroclinicity will be evident by tomorrow's highs generally only being about 2 degrees cooler than today's. Short Term - Thursday Night Through Friday Night Zonal flow aloft will make for a rapid pattern evolution during this period as surface high pressure building in behind the earlier cold front on Thursday shifts offshore during the night. Surface winds will veer from northerly to northeasterly during the day as a result. In addition, a coastal surface trough is expected to develop as the cold front stalls and pivots south of the area. Above the surface, the low to mid-level flow is forecast to switch from northerly during the day to southerly at night with isentropic ascent developing as moist air rides up the 290-295K surfaces over top of the relatively cool and dry near-surface air. Thus, expect at least scattered low clouds on Friday morning with a chance for overcast skies mainly in the coastal areas as this moisture plume and weak lift passes through. Light rain may also be observed near the coast during the morning, but the dry near-surface air should evaporate most or all light precipitation that may appear on radar on Friday. The coastal trough should lift northward during Friday afternoon, veering the surface winds to southerly and allowing for warm, moist air to return inland. Otherwise, inland areas have a lower chance for overcast skies as ridging aloft brings substantial dry air and subsidence into the mid-upper troposphere, keeping scattered thin stratocumulus as the main sky cover concern. With respect to temperatures, the quick-hitting cold air behind Thursday's cold front will lead to overnight lows dipping several degrees lower than the previous night, with low-mid 40s inland and upper 40s to low 50s closer to the coast. On Friday, high temps near the coast will depend on the extent and duration of any low cloud cover, but with the passage of the coastal trough and arrival of southerly flow, skies should scatter out and allow high temps to rise into the low-mid 70s across the area. With southerly flow veering to southwesterly ahead of the next cold front, Friday night's lows will end up considerably warmer as dew points rise, with mid-50s to around 60 expected, warmest along the coast. Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday Significant pattern amplification will occur during this period as a mid-upper trough in the jetstream deepens over the eastern US, reinforced by multiple shortwaves helping to carve out the broader trough. This will result in a substantial cooldown with abnormally cold temperatures filtering in early next week, which will be a hazard for plants, exposed water lines, and those without access to heat. As is typical for these situations, a series of fronts will approach and cross through the area in relatively quick succession, stepping down the temperatures and moisture content with each cold frontal passage. Starting on Saturday, the first shortwave trough shifts through but dampens as it does so, leading to the first cold front approaching the area but stalling and weakening as its support lifts away. As a result, isolated showers associated with the front may make into the western zones during the morning hours on Saturday, but these will be decaying. Southwesterly deep-layer flow and building ridging over the Atlantic will help to boost high temps well into the 70s, with some spots possibly topping out around 80F amidst mixed clouds and sun. Over Saturday night through Sunday night, reinforcing shortwaves will be diving out of central Canada into the base of the amplifying trough, helping to push the stalled front to our west through area during Sunday, followed by a much more potent cold front during Sunday night. With PWATs (Precipitable Waters) around 1" and strong forcing ahead of these shortwaves, scattered showers are possible during this period until the stronger front pushes through on Sunday night. With steady southwest winds and dew points remaining elevated from the moisture return ahead of the first front, expect Saturday night lows in the low 60s followed by Sunday's highs reaching well into the 70s. Once the stronger cold front pushes through, temperatures will fall precipitously on breezy northwest winds, likely making it into the 40s before sunrise on Monday. The coldest days of the period span Monday through Tuesday night, with the last cold front forecast to cross through during the day on Monday. Strong cold advection on continued breezy northwest winds will result in temps slowly creeping back into the 50s on Monday. Overnight lows on Monday night into Tuesday look to be the coldest as the core of cold air passes overhead while dew points hit their lowest levels (potentially in the upper teens to 20s). A widespread freeze is possible, especially as offshore flow keeps the ocean influence limited to areas right along the coast, but elevated winds will also be an inhibiting factor in allowing temps to reach their coldest potential, so this will need to be monitored closely as temps may need to be revised upward or winds revised downward in future updates. With high pressure over the northern Gulf Coast shifting eastward, highs on Veteran's Day look to be the coldest as cold advection continues for one more day, which may limit highs to around 50F. Marine Through Thursday... Prefrontal SWrly flow in place across the Southeast while a cold front approaches from the NW. Tonight as the boundary draws closer the wind will veer to the W while increasing in speed as its approach tightens the gradient. A few gusts to 25kt appear possible but holding off on advisory while the veering gets more aggressive, eventually winding up NE by Thursday. The wind waves should steepen with the 180 degree shift and a small SE swell will continue. Thursday night through Sunday... High pressure shifting offshore of the NC coast will result in ENE to E winds around 10-15 kts from Thursday night into Friday morning before a coastal trough shifts onshore, veering the flow to southerly by Friday afternoon with speeds around 10 kts. With a cold front approaching from the west, but stalling well west of the waters, expect south winds to veer to southwesterly and hold through Sunday, although a tightening gradient will lead to speeds increasing to 15-20 kts on Sunday. Seas generally in the 2-3 ft range through the period will be driven by wind waves with a corresponding increase in wave heigheights late on Sunday as southwest winds increase. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. SC...None. Marine None. |
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