Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Am...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Today...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Rain Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Morning.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
343am EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Cool temperatures will continue today with increasing clouds. Low pressure will deepen as it moves up through the offshore waters bringing light rain this afternoon into this evening, mainly along the coast. A period of snow will follow overnight into early Saturday with accumulations up to an inch inland. Bitter cold weather this weekend will gradually warm through next week.
Near Term - Through Today
High pressure extending into the Carolinas from the northeast will weaken as low pressure develops off the Southeast coast through today. A cold and very dry air mass remains in place this morning with N-NE winds and streaming mid to high clouds as increasing upper level jet runs up from SW to NE from base of digging trough up into the Carolinas. Although winds are near calm, these high clouds will prevent ideal radiational cooling in places, but thinning in other spots will allow temps to drop a bit more as dewpoint temps remain closer to 20 into early this morning. Temps should bottom out in the mid 20s to near 30 close to the coast.
Very shallow cool air will remain in place today as high pressure weakens. Mid to high level moisture will be on the rise in increasing winds aloft as mid to upper trough digs southward toward the Gulf coast as it tracks eastward from the Mississippi Valley. This will help to spawn an area of low pressure off the Southeast/Fl coast which will track northward, remaining well off the Carolina coast as it begins to deepen by this evening. Increasing isentropic lift will produce some mainly light rain into this afternoon closer to the coast where deeper layer moisture will exist. Inland should mainly see increasing mid to high clouds while up to a tenth of an inch of rain will fall as you head eastward toward the coast. Temperatures should struggle to get through the 40s with thickening clouds and rain near the coast. Clouds may be thin enough in some spots to allow temps to jump a few degrees but overall expect them to top off near 50.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6pm SATURDAY/... Surface low pressure located 250 miles east of Cape Fear this evening should deepen rapidly as it moves northward. The last of the rain along the coast will end during the early evening as the warm conveyor aloft shifts offshore. While clouds will remain across the area, there should be a lull in precipitation that lasts through midnight inland and through 3am at the coast.
Upper level heigheights will plunge overnight as a jet streak (100 kt at 500 mb, and 120-130 kt at 300 mb) rotates through the base of an impressive trough across Georgia. Rather extreme mid level temperatures in the core of the deepening trough plus mid-level moisture of Pacific origin that crossed the Dakotas on Thursday will lead to accumulating light snow. Snow should develop west of I-95 by 2am Saturday, spreading eastward to the coast by 5-6 AM. Model Quantitative Precipitation Forecast after the changeover has come into surprising agreement of around 0.10" across the Pee Dee region to 0.05" on the coast. As the dendritic growth zone plunges in altitude snow ratios will shift from 8:1 at the beginning of event to 14:1 at the end, making this an interesting event for any photographers wanting to see varying snow crystal types and sizes.
Up to one inch of snow is forecast inland with up to half an inch on the coast, driven by northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph. A Winter Weather Advisory is being issued for five inland counties, but only a small increase in forecast snow amounts would necessitate several more counties be added into the advisory. Florence, SC had measurable snow during the Jan 21-22 storm, but measurable snow has not fallen in Wilmington since January 4, 2018, and in Myrtle Beach since January 29, 2014.
Precipitation should end Saturday morning from west to east as the dendritic growth zone dries out aloft. Models over the past few days have trended a bit colder with 850 mb temps, now expected to bottom out near -12C Saturday afternoon. This will keep highs in the 30s to around 40, but with wind chills in the 20s. We're at the climatological minimum of the year for 850 mb temps, and -12C is around the climatological 10th percentile for the MHX (Newport/ Morehead City) upper air site.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
The airmass Saturday night will be one of the two coldest of the season. Surface high pressure centered across the northeast Gulf will extend a ridge across Georgia and Carolinas late Saturday night leading to weakening winds. There likely won't be enough snow cover to dramatically influence low temperatures, but upper teens are still forecast inland with near 20 degrees at the coast. This is very similar to what was observed the morning of January 23.
A weak clipper will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday night, but should be accompanied by no sensible weather locally. High pressure building southward behind the clipper will shift winds onshore Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to a moderating trend in temperatures and dewpoints as the arctic air is replaced by an Atlantic modified airmass. A weak coastal front developing Wednesday in advance of low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will bring increasing clouds and perhaps some showers as early as Wednesday. Rain potential will increase Thursday as the low to our west develops further and Gulf moisture joins the low level Atlantic inflow across the Carolinas.Precipitation should end Saturday morning from west to east as the dendritic growth zone dries out aloft. Models over the past few days have trended a bit colder with 850 mb temps, now expected to bottom out near -12C Saturday afternoon. This will keep highs in the 30s to around 40, but with wind chills in the 20s. We're at the climatological minimum of the year for 850 mb temps, and -12C is around the climatological 10th percentile for the MHX (Newport/ Morehead City) upper air site.
Through Friday...Northeast winds 10-15 kts will prevail over local coastal waters into today, but should weaken as high pressure extending down from the northeast into inland Carolinas weakens as low pressure begins to move up the southeast coastline while strengthening into late Friday. Seas will lower to 2 to 3 ft as northerly winds weaken slightly and back to the NW becoming offshore.
Friday night through Tuesday... A broad area of low pressure between the Carolinas and Bahamas will tighten up into a bombing cyclone as it moves east of the Outer Banks tonight. Moderate northwest winds will suddenly surge to 25-35 knots prior to sunrise Saturday as a powerful upper level impulse pushes offshore. Falling temperatures will change rain over to snow across the nearshore waters before precipitation ends by noon. A Gale Watch is being issued for the potential of frequent gale force gusts, especially south of Cape Fear Saturday morning.
The low will remain a major feature on the weather map for the northeastern U.S. into Sunday, but a narrow ridge of high pressure will build across the Carolinas Sunday bringing lighter winds. A wave of low pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday night should bring a period of moderate offshore winds, but these winds will diminish on Monday. Low pressure developing across the lower Mississippi Valley should lead to increasing southeasterly winds and milder temperatures Tuesday.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1am to 10am EST Saturday for SCZ017-023-024. NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1am to 10am EST Saturday for NCZ087-096.
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for AMZ250-252-254-256.
$$ SYNOPSIS...ILM Near Term
RGZ SHORT TERM...TRA Long TermTRA AVIATION...RGZ