Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt Late This Evening And Overnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Then 3 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Then 3 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
435pm EST Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis: Low pressure will pull away to the north tonight. In it's wake, drier and cooler air will work into the Carolinas this evening. As winds become NW overnight into Fri, any low cloudiness will scour out under blustery conditions. Tranquil weather will finally highlight this weekend as high pressure dominates. A pair of dry cold frontal passages will occur next week that will keep temperatures at or slightly below normal.
Near Term - Through Friday
As of 345pm Thursday...Latest model analysis and water vapor imagery indicated a shortwave trough of low pressure sliding across the Ohio River valley, which was bringing uplift and streaming moisture into the Carolinas. Surface warm front that passed through the area this morning brought heavy rain and low cloud cover to many areas across the area.
Radar returns have lessened as cold front passes through this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures range from 60 at Southport, NC to 45 at Florence, SC behind the front. As skies clear out tonight behind the front, expecting temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, especially west of the I-95 corridor. Some locations may experience some patchy frost by early morning.
Pressure rises expected tomorrow as high pressure returns Friday. Highs across the region tomorrow will reach the mid to upper 50s, which is about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. No precipitation expected tonight or Friday.
Short Term - Friday Night Through Saturday Night
As of 345pm Thursday...Looking at a pcpn-less and dry fcst with only few to scattered clouds passing overhead thruout this period as both Gulf Moisture and Atlantic moisture remain basically untapped. An elongated longwave low amplitude upper trof to dominate this period with the trof's axis remaining west of the FA. Flow aloft will basically be zonal or westerly. The FA will be under the influence of both the northern and southern jets, as they both cancel one another in terms of potential CAA or WAA. As a result, the cold temps will remain north of the FA and the milder temps to remain just south of the FA. The produces near normal temps for both daytime highs and nighttime lows. The exception will be for Sat morning lows with various model MOS guidance indicating atleast 1 Cat below normal which gives widespread mid 30s away from the coast. The potential for decent radiational cooling conditions could result in areas to possibly widespread frost. Much too early to put up an advisory
Long Term - Sunday Through Thursday
As of 345pm Thursday...Longwave upper pattern continues to display a low amplitude trof encompassing much of the U.S. with upper ridging along the immediate west coast. Westerly flow aloft starts out this period with dry and near normal temps expected for Sunday. Models the past few days indicate an impulse in the lower levels of the flow over the Atlantic off the southeast U.S. Coast. Models indicate it making it's turn to the NW then N during Monday and to the NE by early Tue, finally pulling away from the Carolina Coasts. Have indicated a short- period of patchy light rain along the immediate coast Monday into Monday night. A surface cold front is able to push across Tuesday into Wed with the aid of a mid-level s/w trof. Not much of Cold Air Advection behind it as flow aloft drops back to zonal. By the end of this period, models hint of a pcpn event shaping up but just too far out in time for specifics.
Near Term - Through Friday: As of 345pm Thursday...Gusty west winds between 15 and 25 kts expected tonight as cold front continues to move offshore. Gusts could reach as high as 30 kts as high pressure filters into the area, which will cause wave heigheights between 5 and 7 feet this evening into the early Friday morning hours. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended into early Friday morning. Wind speeds and wave heigheights will decrease Friday as more settled weather returns to the area, although wave heigheights of 3 to 5 feet are still possible through the day.
Short Term - Friday Night Through Saturday Night: As of 345pm Thursday...Benign wind conditions shaping up for this period. The center of surface high pressure will drop to the Southeast States during Sat and become elongated across the Carolinas just inland from the coast thru Sun. Winds this period will initially be north thru northeast 10 to 15 kt then diminish to around 10 kt Sat night thruout the majority of Sun. Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft, except initially 3 to 5 ft from Cape Fear north, and it's makeup primarily from a dominating easterly ground swell at 9+ second periods.
Long Term - Sunday Through Tuesday: As of 345pm Thursday...A semi-active significant seas period as long period ESE ground swell at 9+ second periods will highlight this period. Winds this period will primarily have a northerly trajectory but remain in the 10 to occasionally 15 kt speeds. This could further increase slightly depending on the movement and strength of the low level impulse moving around the periphery of the Atlantic as explained in the public discussion for this time period. Significant seas will run in the 2 to 4 foot range, primarily coming from the 9+ second period ESE swell
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256