Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Isolated Showers And Tstms Late This Evening And Early Morning.|
|Thu...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming S 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 7 To 10 Ft. Showers.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Day. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
729pm EDT Wednesday April 8 2020
Temperatures well above normal will continue through Thursday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible through late this evening and again early Thursday. A cold front will arrive late Thursday followed by below normal temperatures for the end of the week. Developing low pressure along South Central U.S. may bring showers and thunderstorms to the region early next week, along with a return of warm weather.
Potent storms upstream will continue to head southeast possibly reaching our local forecast area later this evening as they diminish in intensity. Kept iso to scattered tstms possible mainly between 10pm and 2am. After these shwrs/tstms move offshore, another round is possible toward morning ahead of cold front. Adjusted pops/weather slightly to account for timing of shwrs.
Near Term - Through Thursday Night
Dry air over the Carolinas this afternoon will limit thunderstorm formation for the large part. A few isolated cells may develop in western portions of the CWA, but this will be limited to one or two storms at most. Any storms that do develop could become strong or severe given the amount of mid-level dry air and available CAPE and DCAPE; the primary threat would be damaging winds. The best chance of seeing a shower or storm would be in areas of NC and points south of the Great Pee Dee River. Lingering storms could last into the late evening hours after pushing east out of central NC/SC and quickly diminish as instability shuts off after sunset.
Cold front approaches the area overnight with associated organized convection. Hi-res models continue to show an organized line pushing eastward across the Carolinas on Thursday morning. A few embedded storms within the line could be strong or severe, but the limiting factor will be available instability. After the front clears the area, cold air will lag behind and many areas are likely to reach the upper 80s with dry air streaming in out of the west and northwest. There may be some Fire Weather concerns late in the day as winds increase out of the west to around 15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots and min RH just above 30%. In previous cases where westerly flow is present ahead of a cold front, areas of central NC are able to achieve slightly lower dew points than forecast with the help of downslope flow off of the Appalachians, so this will be closely monitored. Cold front finally moves through the area late in the day and overnight temperatures drop into the low 50s by Friday morning.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Cool and dry short term period with front that moved through Thursday night stalling well to the south and high pressure building in from the west. Cold advection behind the front continues to strengthen through Friday night, with highs Friday likely in the mid- 60s. Breezy conditions Friday afternoon, with gusts 20-25 mph, and RHs around 25% could lead to fire weather concerns. Lows Friday night well below normal with current forecast around 40 degrees, with chance of being lowered more. Don't see temps reaching freezing, and will be too dry for frost in any cold spots that may dip into the mid-30s.
Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
Beautiful day Saturday with high pressure overhead and cool temps in the high 60s. High slides offshore Saturday night resulting in return flow and allowing the stalled front to our south to lift north as a warm front into Sunday. This will bring light to moderate rain to the area. Instability will be limited Sunday, but may see isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening/night. A strong low at the surface tracks well to the NW Sunday night into Monday in conjunction with a strong 500mb shortwave. This will bring an initial cold front through the area sometime Sunday night through Monday. No cold advection with this front, but likely additional rain. ECM has a later progression of the front into early Monday afternoon, where increased instability could lead to thunderstorm development. Near normal temps Saturday night and Sunday, with lows Sunday night in the 60s due to cloud cover and WAA.
Air column dries out behind the initial front Monday. Highs Monday around 80 degrees with continued WAA. Second, stronger, cold front approaches Monday night but is slow to move through due to parallel flow aloft. Front looks to stall near our area Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning, before moving further offshore Wednesday as high builds in. Temps Tuesday will depend on front timing and location, with cooler weather following behind the FROPA mid-week.
Winds out of the SW at 10-15 knots continue tonight with gusts to 20 knots at times. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight as well; a few of these could be strong and hazardous for boaters. Breezy conditions continue to tomorrow ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Seas will be largely 3-4 feet, with an occasional 5 footer, overnight and into tomorrow morning. Cold front moves through the area during the late afternoon and winds become offshore at 10-15 knots. Winds maintain this general speed and direction overnight Thursday into early Friday as high pressure builds into the area from the NW.
Northwest flow by midday Friday will be around 15 kt, with northerly flow continuing into Saturday before onshore flow starts to develop late in the day as the high moves offshore. Southeast flow Saturday night increases on Sunday with potential for 20 to 25 kt and gusts approaching 30 kt as gradient tightens. While speeds may end up short of Small Craft Advisory thresholds do think seas will build to 6-9 ft Sunday through Monday and a headline seems likely. Seas 2-4 ft Friday will decrease to 1-2 ft Saturday, weakening 6s S wind wave and wind chop. By Sunday a southerly wave will become dominant with some guidance showing 10+ ft seas with 9 second wave period, that slowly begins to diminish on Monday. Thunderstorms possible Sunday and Monday as a warm front lifts north followed by a weak cold front.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Downtown Wilmington continues to see impacts from successive high tides. Lower high tides look to drop below advisory conditions beginning on Friday, but water levels during the higher high tides are likely to cause advisories to continue through the weekend. Areas of Wrightsville Beach could also see minor coastal flooding over the next couple of days, although uncertainty is slightly higher for these locations. Coastal Brunswick has been added to tonight's Coastal Flood Advisory based on reports from yesterday's higher high tide. The current product uses the closest forecast point, which is located in Wrightsville Beach, so these observations and forecasts should not be used for water levels outside of New Hanover and Pender county.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2am EDT Thursday for NCZ107. MARINE...None.