Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Then 3 To 4 Ft This Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Then 3 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 10 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
721am EDT Tuesday September 18 2018
Synopsis: A front will cross the Carolinas today, exiting off the coast by Wednesday morning. This will usher much drier air into the region, with no significant precipitation expected this week as high pressure builds in from the north. Lingering effects of Florence will be felt for days to come as dangerous river flooding continues.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 300am Tuesday...Coastal Flood Advisory for downtown flooding has expired at 7am and area wide Flood Warning has been extended until 7pm on Wednesday. Mid-level s/w energy and a surface frontal boundary will combine to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning. Once insolation commences this morning, the atmosphere will further destabilize resulting in additional thunderstorm activity. A few of the stronger storms could produce 30 to 45 mph wind gusts later this morning and aftn. In addition, rainfall amounts will generally run one- quarter to 1 inch with isolated hier amounts possible. The locations not within our Areal Flood Warning that runs thru 1015am today include...Williamsburg County and the southern half of Georgetown County. However, enough pcpn has fallen to warrant atleast a Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in the mentioned locations thru 645am this morning. Overall, POPs will run 30 to 50 percent today early this morning thru this afternoon then drop off from NW to SE as the front pushes off the Carolina coasts this evening and overnight. Models are similar in taking the drier air and infiltrating it across the local area this evening and pre-dawn Wednesday hours. PWS in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range or forecast to drop to around or below 1 inch come Wednesday daybreak. A WELCOME CHANGE to say the least. Temps followed the consensus amongst the models with a 80s to around 90 for highs today and 70 to 75 for tonigheights lows with possible upper 60s along and west of the I-95 corridor where the drier air having worked in
Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night
As of 300am Tuesday...The start to a dry period across the Carolinas, with a change in air mass, as high pressure builds in behind an exiting front Wednesday into Thurs. At the same time the mid to upper ridge will migrate across the Southeast taking up residence nearly overhead by Thurs night. A deep northerly flow will advect dry air into the area with pcp water values down less than 1.5 inches to start the day on Wed. These values will decrease further to less than 1.25 inches through the period as surface high pressure continues to extend down from the north as it migrates eastward toward the coast. Overall expect dry and warm weather during the day with temps in the mid 80s both days, but a couple of degrees less on Thurs. Overnight lows will feel a bit cooler as lower dewpoint air will allow for greater diurnal swings with temps dropping below 70 many places inland Wednesday night and down into the mid 60s Thurs night
Long Term - Friday Through Monday
As of 300pm Monday...Mid-level high pressure will dominate the upper levels through Sunday. The 500 mb ridge Will shift south of the area and a weak front will be along the Virginia-North Carolina border on Monday. The precipitable waters are expected to be at or below 1.25" through Sunday. What this means is the chances for precipitation will be low with a slight increase on Monday afternoon.
High temperature are expected to be in the middle to upper 80s through the period. With lows in the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast.
Near Term - Through Tonight: As of 300am Tuesday...Ahead of the surface frontal boundary, the surface pg will remain tightened with the surface pressure pattern yielding S-SW winds 10 to 20 kt to start, veering to the WSW-WNW as the front pushes across the waters this afternoon and early evening. And finally, further veering to the NW-NE after the CFP later tonight and pre- dawn Wednesday hours. Speeds at the end of the period will run 10 to 15 kt. Models may be under-estimating the dry surge after the CFP but for now will keep it at 15 kt speeds. Significant seas will be initialized in the 3 to 4 foot range with occasional 5 footers. As winds veer and become partially to mostly offshore later tonight, the seas will see a decline by atleast a foot come daybreak Wed. Dominant periods will run 6 to 8 seconds with an underlying small SE groundswell at 11 to 13 second periods.
Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night: As of 300pm Monday...A surface front will be crossing the waters Wednesday morning. NW winds behind the front will veer to N on Wednesday and will continue to shift around to the NE by Thurs and more easterly by Thurs night as high pressure builds down into the waters from the north and then migrates eastward. Winds 10 kts or less Wednesday morning will increase to 10 to 15 kts Wednesday night into Thurs. Seas on a downward trend to 2 to 3 ft through Wednesday will jump up a bit Wednesday night into Thurs, to 3 to 4 ft.
Long Term - Friday Through Saturday: As of 300pm Monday...High pressure will be over the coastal waters through the period. Winds will shift to the east and weaken to 5 to 10 knots on Fri into Sat. Seas will range generally in the 2 to 3 foot range
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. MARINE...None