Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Pm...N Winds 5 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Sun...E Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 5 Ft. Showers Likely Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
401pm EDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Dry weather but continued above normal temps are expected the remainder of this weekend as weak high pressure prevails. Showers may skirt the coast late Sunday night into Monday as low pressure develops over the Atlantic Waters and moves further offshore. The next cold front will approach Monday night bringing showers and possibly thunderstorms to the area. Brief and dry high pressure will build in for the mid- week period of next week followed by a strong low pressure system for the late week period.
Near Term - Through Sunday Night
Zonal flow aloft to start this period, will help move the broad center of surface high pressure west of the Appalachians, vcnty TN/NC border this evening, to offshore from the Mid-Atlantic Coast by late Sun. Models keep the developing warm front and associated clouds and precipitation well north of the FA, ie. VA and northward, by late this period. Look for a decent rad cooling night as winds decouple early this evening due to the surface based temp inversion developing quickly after sunset. Will see the gradient tighten-some on the backside of the exiting surface high by Sunday morning. Onshore E-SE surface winds may increase just enough prior to dawn to erode any fog that develops closer to the immediate coast. Took a few degrees off model consensus given what has transcribed during previous similar morning's with model consensus running too high with mins. Expect basically sunny/mostly sunny Sunday with possible Cu/Sc clouds late in the day and especially along the coastal counties Sunday night. Max temps Sunday to reach the 79-84 range, with low end of the range occurring along the immediate coast. Pcpn will hold off til late Sunday night as SFC-700mb SE-S flow brings in some decent low- level Atlantic moisture. The s/w mid-level trough doesn't sharpen enough as it reaches Southeast States during Sunday night. This will limit the inland progression of the precipitation to the immediate coast by the end of this period. Sunday night lows will run a good 10+ degrees higher than tonigheights mins.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
A change will be occurring as the onshore flow will shift to the south and southwest ahead of a strong cold front. At 12 UTC Monday, a cold front is associated with a cutoff low over northern Indiana will move off the coast by 12 UTC Tuesday. 0-6 KM Shear will increase to 40 knots an increase in instability with Most Unstable capes around 1000 kg/j Monday after thus the marginal risk of severe weather on Monday for the forecast area. Highs are expected to be in the lower 80s, with a few middle 80s west of Interstate-95. Lows Monday will be in the upper 50s west of Interstate-95 to the middle 60sat the coast as the front has shifted off the coast.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
A 2nd more powerful trough will move into the the Mississippi River Valley late Wednesday. By Saturday, will be a fully closed-off low covering the eastern half of the United States. With this cutoff, low developing diffluence is seen aloft and strong jet rotating around the base of the low. The deeper 2 inches precipitable water will move up and hug the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC GFS shows this deep moisture moving up into the forecast area around 6-12 hours than the 00 UTC GFS run. It definitely will be a very unsettled period with a warm front pushing up Thursday morning and the trailing cold front shifting off the coast during the day on Friday. Temperatures are expected to fall closer to normal, with highs in the lower to mid 70s and lows in the 50s.
Through Sunday Night... A weak surface pg tonight will result in NE-E winds generally 5 to 10 kt and that may be too generous. Wind driven waves will be at their lowest input to the sea spectrum tonight. A fading residual 14+ second period will give way to a SE 6 to 7 second period pseudo or fresh swell later tonight thru Sunday night as the backside of the surface high exits off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and the surface pg tightens slightly across the local waters. Looking at E winds increasing by or likely after sunrise Sunday to around 10 kt...and veering to SE 10-15 kt late Sunday afternoon and night. Weak low offshore may provide a slight increase the surface pg Sunday night, will see how that plays out given models poor handling on it's development and strength. Seas around 2 ft building to 2 to 3 ft late Sunday and Sunday night. Widely scattered showers possible Sunday night from the offshore low and associated moisture.
Monday through Thursday... A strong cold front will cross the coastal waters on Monday and off the coast Tuesday. Winds will be southerly to southwesterly on Monday, with the northwest winds after the frontal passage. Wind will diminish and remain from the west by Wednesday evening before winds will swing back from the south ahead of a stronger cold front approaching late in the weak. Seas are expected to be around 3 to 4 feet on Monday and increase to near 5 feet ahead of the front. As the winds become west, the wind speeds may be near small craft values. Seas will drop with the offshore flow to 1 to 3 feet by Wednesday but are expected to increase to 3 to 4 feet late on Thursday, with the second front approaching.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories