Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Mainly In E Swell.
|Thu...Ne Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
|Fri...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Showers In The Morning, Then Sprinkles Likely In The Afternoon.
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
|Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
|Sun...N Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
759pm EST Wednesday Feb 21 2024
Southerly winds will develop Thursday bringing warmer air across the Carolinas. Showers are expected Friday as a cold front sweeps across the area. Cool weather will build in with Canadian high pressure this weekend, followed by another warmup beginning Monday.
No significant changes are needed to the forecast at this time. Winds appear they will go calm quickly this evening and remain there most of the night. Radiational cooling will be very good. Forecast lows are already at or below the coolest MOS guidance at each station which seems quite reasonable given the synoptic pattern. Models suggest dewpoints will begin to creep up abrupartly across far-eastern NC late tonight, but it appears our area is far enough west to avoid any potential ground fog issues.
Near Term - Through Thursday
Surface high pressure holds through tonight before moving offshore early Thursday. The high overhead will lead to light winds after sunset, veering from the north to the south by Thursday morning. Trended overnight lows a bit cooler due to the calm winds and lowered temps in our colder spots. The only problem is some overnight cirrus moving through, so didn't go too aggressive with the cooling. Overall, lows should fall near or just above freezing, with traditionally colder spots in the upper 20s. Cirrus should stick around through Thursday with southerly flow building in behind the surface high. The ridge axis will shift offshore as well with deeper southerly flow and WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) moving in aloft for the latter half of the day. NE SC highs in the mid-upper 60s and SE NC in the low-mid 60s.
Short Term - Thursday Night Through Saturday Night
A broad but not necessarily strong mid level trough will move across the area Friday along with a cold front. No real tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture with this one but good low level convergence and some mid level forcing warrant a continuation of likely to even categorical probability of precipitation mostly for Friday morning. Rainfall amounts should be within a few clicks of one quarter of an inch.
Next up is a potent/compact shortwave moving quickly across Saturday mainly in the afternoon. Have incrementally increased probability of precipitation as a few light showers may develop with this feature and there is at least some guidance in support of this idea. A nice warmup ahead of the front Friday into the middle to upper 60s quickly gets worked over Saturday with highs in the middle to upper 50s.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
Overall the extended period still features a warm up as the mid levels transition from a zonal to more amplified pattern which includes ridging for the southeast. High temperatures will be in the middle to perhaps even upper 70s beyond Sunday. There is a system that trudges toward the region by mid week but experience has shown these tend to slow down in time. There could be sea fog and or coastal temperature challenges next week with this synoptic setup.
Through Thursday...High pressure overhead will lead to light and variable winds over the coastal waters through early Thursday. The high will shift offshore later in the day with increasing SW flow, speeds increasing to 15-20 kts once more in the evening. Seas 2-4 ft with a 3-4 ft ENE swell at 9-11 seconds.
Thursday Night through Monday...Small craft conditions likely ahead of a cold front Thursday night into Friday as winds and seas both increase briefly into criteria. Some modest cold air advection in the wake of the front doesn't seem to want to do much with wind speeds maybe 15-20 knots for a bit but mostly 10-15. Beyond this a south to southwest flow will be in place with similar wind speeds. It could however present an extended period of a sea fog threat.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories