Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late This Morning And Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft...Up To 6 Ft Far E Portions Thru Midday.|
|Tonight...N Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 10 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Day, Then Showers Through The Night.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Showers Likely Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
406am EST Sat Feb 22 2020
Cold and dry Canadian high pressure will dominate this weekend. Temps will slowly moderate each day, reaching near normal Sun. By Mon, the high will have moved off the Carolina Coasts allowing a warm front to lift across the area. Expect milder temps and scattered showers for Monday thru Tue. A weak cold front with showers will push across late Tuesday before temporarily stalling. A much stronger cold front will sweep across the region late Wednesday followed by cold and dry high pressure for the late week period of next week.
Near Term - Through Sunday
Deamplified flow aloft will nearly become near zonal with hints of weak ridging extending northeast across the FA late Sun. At the sfc, Cold and very dry Canadian High pressure to will dominate the FA this period. The rather broad center will occupy the SE States thru Sun. Of the 2 days, temperatures will be coldest today, 10 to 15 degrees below normal thru tonight. And slowly moderate thru Sunday to at or just below climo norms. Low PWs and quite dry thru the atm column both days will yield sunny skies and a clear night. Will see thin jetstream cirrus move across during Sun. The stratocu cloud deck over the adjacent waters will slowly deteriorate as to strong Cold Air Advection becomes neutral. For temps, stayed closer to the cooler side of Mos Guidance which in this period was the European...and then shaved an additional 1 to 3 degrees off todays max and especially tonigheights mins due to excellent rad cooling conditions setting up quickly after sunset.
Short Term - Sunday Night Through Monday Night
A mid level system and associated fronts will be getting its act together and moving east during the short term period. The system still looks somewhat unorganized but should provide rainfall to the area for most of the period. Likely probability of precipitation Monday transition to categorical values overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Surface high pressure will remain in place keeping temperatures on the cool side Monday and with a warm front moving across by Tuesday morning (which also helps in the forcing) lows will be somewhat higher than the previous periods.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
probability of precipitation remain in the period Tuesday and Wednesday as the system affecting the short term period lingers waiting on a deeper kicking trough which develops in the Mississippi Valley. Its certainly not going to rain this entire time and will need to be fine tuned in time. Global guidance remains in general agreement on a cold front sweeping the moisture offshore late Wednesday with another cold air outbreak for weeks end.
Today through Sunday: Small Craft Advisory conditions to extend into the afternoon. Strong cold and dry Canadian high pressure will dominate this weekend. The broad center of the high will occupy the Southeast States today thru tonight, then slowly drift eastward off the Carolina coasts Sunday and offshore Mon. The surface pg will continue to relax today with N-NE winds diminishing to below SCA thresholds, both sustained and in gusts, by midday or during this afternoon. With the surface pg quite relaxed tonight thru Sun, winds generally will run 10 kt or less.
Seas will be slower to subside due to the increased backswell from the departed Gale Low now well offshore from the East Coast. Local and Area Buoys indicate the increasing ESE swell at 11 to 13 second periods. This will result in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) threshold seas lasting well into this afternoon which has prompted the extension of the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to the mid or possibly late aftn.
Sunday Night through Wed: Light and essentially variable winds will be in place late Sunday into the day Monday. An onshore and then moreso a southwest flow will become better defined through early Tuesday on the order of 15-20 knots at least for a few hours. The flow will remain in place from the southwest although in a weakening state laterTuesday into early Wednesday only to increase once again as a stronger system moves in from the west. Finally an offshore flow of 15-20 knots develops early Thursday and persists through basically the remainder of the period. Significant seas will be up and down with the winds with 2-4 early on increasing to 3-5 feet with some small craft values late Wednesday and Thursday a possibility.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.