Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
THROUGH 7 AM
25 - 30
20 - 25
5 - 10
5 - 10
5 - 10
|Through 7 Am...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Today...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt Early, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Then Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft Late.|
|Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Evening, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sun...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Se. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
351am EDT Wednesday Mar 29 2023
Dry and cool high pressure will build in behind cold front today through Thursday. A warmup will begin late Thursday as the high moves off the coast. Winds and rain chances will increase on Saturday ahead of a cold front that will move offshore by Sunday morning, bringing temperatures briefly back down toward normal.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Today: High pressure will return behind a passing cold front early this morning. This will bring drier air and cooler temperatures with highs likely below normal in the lower to mid 60s. It will also be breezy into early afternoon with some gusts near 30 mph at times, especially near the coast.
Tonight: Pretty decent radiational cooling should occur due to continuing high pressure across the area providing light winds along with clear skies. Thus, low temps should fall below normal to near 40 most locales away from the locally milder coastal areas. Should see the normally colder spots get a bit colder, possibly into the mid 30s where some frost could occur. At this point we don't think chances/coverage will be high enough to warrant a Frost Advisory but will continue to monitor. The most likely area for more frost coverage looks to be in Pender County.
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
Air mass will begin to modify as high pressure moves east from the Ohio Valley to just off the VA/NC coast by Thurs afternoon and then farther off the coast through Fri. Light northerly winds will veer around becoming more onshore through late Thurs and then a warmer and moister southerly return flow will develop into Friday. After a cool start Thurs morning, temps will rebound to near 70 with bright sunshine. The weak warm and moist advection Thurs night will keep temps closer to normal, in the mid 40s most places.
The gusty southerly warm and moist return flow on Friday will bring dewpoint temps back into the 50s. Should see a mix of high clouds and some afternoon cu on Fri, but expect some sunshine with temps getting up into the mid 70s to near 80, but cooler at the beaches and should see sea breeze pushing relatively cooler air inland through the late afternoon. Models are hinting at some patchy pcp moving up along the coast later in the day. Above normal temps will continue into Fri night with overnight lows in the 60s in increasing moisture and clouds.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
Saturday will continue unseasonably warm but will have increasing clouds and increasing chance of showers as cold front approaches from the west. Any decent upper level support will remain north, but should see convection develop ahead of front into Sat afternoon with strong and gusty SW winds. Once front moves through Sat night into Sun, more seasonable and drier weather will arrive for early next week. Although Sunday will be relatively cooler than Sat, Cold Air Advection will be short-lived as ridge builds up through the Southeast with warming, especially on Mon as high shifts off the coast with a southerly return flow setting up once again and temps back into the 70s with plenty of sunshine. May see some rain back in the forecast for Monday night into Tues as shortwave rides across the Southeast and we get into an increasing warm and moist southerly flow, but too early to say with any confidence. Temps will continue warm on Tues.
Through tonight...A northerly wind surge will occur thisam behind a passing cold front with a several hour period of gale force gusts over the eastern portions of the southern NC waters through around 12Z with several hours of Small Craft Advisory conditions thereafter which should end around 18Z. Solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will occur in the northern SC waters which should end by 18Z. Expect improving conditions later today and especially tonight as high pressure moves into the area.
Thursday through Sunday... A new center of high pressure will be located well to the north by Thursday bringing light N to NE winds. Seas will fall to the 2-3ft range, perhaps even lower by Thursday night. Flow will swing around to the south on Friday and become slightly stronger and slightly gusty in response to high pressure moving offshore. On Saturday the approach of a cold front tightens the gradient and an advisory appears likely. May even see Gale conditions, at least in gusts on Sat. Seas should build to 5 to 8 ft with rough marine conditions over the weekend. The cold front swings through late in the day with winds veering around to offshore and then northerly by Sunday as high builds in. Winds will weaken and seas will drop Sunday afternoon into Mon.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Gale Warning until 8am EDT this morning for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for AMZ254- 256.