Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...S Winds 10 Kt, Diminishing To 10 Kt Or Less Late. Seas 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Evening.|
|Mon...S Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft After Midnight. Showers And Tstms.|
|Thu...E Winds 10 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Fri...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
819pm EDT Sunday July 15 2018
Synopsis: High pressure offshore will yield increasing moisture early in the week. An approaching cold front will then bring rain chances starting Monday night into Tuesday. This boundary will stall nearby late in the week keeping the weather unsettled and may bring significant rainfall to the area.
Near Term - Through Monday
As of 8pm Sunday...A few remaining cumulus across the Pee Dee region will dissipate over the next couple of hours, leaving mostly clear skies for the overnight hours. A weak surface trough off the northeast SC coast this evening is producing some shower activity well offshore. As this trough lifts north overnight, widely scattered showers may scrape the Cape Fear coast, but most of the activity is expected to remain over the waters.
Radiational cooling conditions will be somewhat favorable with mostly clear skies and light southerly wind flow, which may bring areas of mist into the predawn and daybreak hours. SREF dewpoint ensembles show a best fit curve rising nearly into the middle 70s along the coastal interior late tonight. SW wind flow in the lowest 4000 feet Monday will advect increasing moisture, deepening to around 9000 feet in mid to late afternoon. This could support shower development as short- wave riplets begin to impinge the area from the WNW, coupled with sea breeze front interaction. As such, painted a few showers late, and prior to 00z Tuesday. Min-T/Max-T aligns very close to middle July climatology this period. Slightly below normal humidity, will make a come back this period
Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday Night
As of 300pm Sunday...Shortwave trough will be riding through the Carolinas Monday night into Tues leading the way for a deeper mid to upper trough which will push a cold front into the Carolinas on Tues. The tail end of the cold front will get caught up in flatter mid to upper level flow on the bottom of the trough which will act to slow the progress and looks like this front may not make much progress past our local area Tues night into Wed. A deeper SW flow Monday night will veer through the period in response to shortwave and main mid to upper trough.
There will be decent mid to upper level support returning this period and moisture will return in force as a weak area of low pressure lifts away and deep SW flow returns. Pcp water values near 1.5 inches over the tip of Cape Fear at the start of the period, Monday eve, should spare coastal SE NC initially, but deep convection may develop Monday eve over I-95 corridor and this should track toward the coast through Monday night. The intensity should diminish some as heating of the day cuts off, but clouds and pcp should make it to the coast later Monday eve. The local forecast area will be replaced by values well over 2 inches Monday night into Tues night. There may be some drier air wrapping around in a more westerly flow on the back end of the shortwave Tues afternoon before increasing again ahead of cold front late Tues. The NAM shows the drying more than the GFS. Overall expect plenty of clouds, and more increased shwr/tstm activity through the period, with possibly a bit of a lull in activity for a portion of the day on Tues. May see some isolated strong to severe storms in the mix with heavy rain and localized flooding as moisture increases through the column. The back edge of drier air may creep into the extreme western portions of the local forecast area, , west of I-95, by daybreak Wednesday as front drops farther toward the coast.
Clouds and pcp will moderate the temps through the period, but overall expect a humid air mass in place through the period with overnight lows in the 70s and mid 80s to around 90 for highs on Tues
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
As of 300pm Sunday...An unsettled period shaping up with the potential for some significant rainfall. A cold front and wave of low pressure will cross the area slowly on Wednesday. Models are not certain just how far south the front goes later Wednesday and thus have different ideas on how much dry air advects in from the NW behind it. There may be a bit of a lag in the rain Wednesday night or sometime thereabouts mainly away from the coast. By Thursday the next wave should ride up the boundary and spread rain back across the region, with highest amounts focused in coastal locales. Interestingly the 12Z EC has this delayed a full day until Friday. Being a newer idea this wasn't factored much into the forecast. Deep moisture and rain chances will linger along the front into the weekend as the boundary either stalls or even draws slightly inland.
Near Term - Through Monday: As of 8pm Sunday...A weak surface trough off the northeast SC coast will bring the potential for widely scattered showers over the waters mainly north of Cape Fear overnight. Otherwise, the pressure gradient will remain relatively weak through Monday, supporting winds mostly 12 kt or less.
Marine showers with isolated TSTMs will be favored Monday mainly over NE SC waters. Seas 2-3 feet in a mix of S waves 1.5-2 feet every 5 seconds, and SE waves 1-2 every 11 seconds, highest swell waves offshore. The sea breeze Monday afternoon could bring S-SSE wind gusts to 18 kt between 2pm and 6 pm, most commonly, inshore.
Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday Night: As of 300pm Sunday...A return to SW winds Monday eve will increase into Tues as a cold front progresses into the Carolinas. As the gradient tightens, there will be period of a decent southerly push with winds initially closer to 10 to 15 kts and then increasing to 10 to 20 kts Tues. This will build seas to 3 to 5 ft Tues afternoon into Tues night with a SCEC likely and possibly a short duration Small Craft Advisory before the winds become more westerly as the front nears the coast on Wed. A shorter period wind wave will dominate through most of the period, but some longer period lingering swells from Beryl will remain in the mix.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Friday: As of 300pm Sunday...A cold front drops into the area late Wednesday. Where it stalls/how far south it progresses is a little uncertain at this time. So too is the speed at which it eventually turns back as a warm front and lifts north. Currently that is slated for Thursday but some new guidance is almost a full day slower. So while the forecast may be adjusted with respect to wind direction it still seems that wind speeds will be capped at 10kt for most of the period; the proximity of the boundary keeping the flow light
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 8pm Sunday...Although waning, the astronomical pull still appears sufficient for minor coastal flooding at the downtown Wilmington gage late tonight, per most recent ETSS and ESTOFS numerical output. Beaches crested advisory levels last night but tonight to fall short. The flooding along the lower Cape Fear late tonight will be not only brief, but very minor
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 1am EDT Monday for NCZ107. MARINE...None