Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds And Sw 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 212pm EDT Wednesday September 24 2025 Synopsis Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue Thursday and Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. This front should bring good chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through the weekend. There may be increasing impacts from rough surf and rip currents at the beach next week from offshore tropical systems. Near Term - Through Thursday Unseasonably warm weather will continue through Thursday as our area remains in a WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) regime between offshore ridge and approaching trough from the west. Low temps tonight around 70F. Winds will remain slightly elevated as pressure gradient tightens, which will prevent widespread fog from developing. Could still see patchy fog and low stratus across Cape Fear region early Thursday morning with very moist low levels. High temps Thursday will again reach into low 90s (away from the coast), with the current forecast just shy of record for KFLO/Florence (forecast 94F, record 95F). Plenty of sunshine Thursday will aid in enough instability for isolated storms along the sea breeze in the afternoon before focus shifts inland later in the day as upper trough approaches. Best shear remains west of the area, with relatively weak wind field locally, and severe chances remain low. Short Term - Thursday Night Through Saturday Night A pair of shortwaves embedded with a positively tiled upper trough will pivot toward the East Coast late this week. The northern shortwave will move across southern New England Friday night and off the Northeast coast Saturday. It's the southern shortwave that will more-directly impact our weather, advecting a flow of deep moisture off the Gulf across the eastern Carolinas Friday through Saturday as a surface cold front slides in beneath it. After many weeks of dry weather and the recent expansion of D0/D1 drought, this developing weather pattern should yield some very welcome rain across large sections of eastern North and South Carolina. Observed rainfall over the past 30 days ranges from a trace in Lumberton (0% of normal) to 2.36 inches in Wilmington (27% of normal) with North Myrtle Beach and Florence in between those extremes. Precipitable water values should rise to 1.9 to 2.0 inches Friday afternoon through Saturday, about half an inch above normal and just shy of the 90th percentile values for the date. Daytime heating should push CAPE values to 1000-1500 J/kg with no cap on Friday. Aided by upper diffluence from the right entrance region of 200 mb jet across the Mid Atlantic states, we expect 70 percent coverage of showers and thunderstorms both days. Severe weather chances are low, mainly focused on a risk of wet microbursts on Friday. 0-6 km bulk shear values grow Saturday as the upper system moves into the southern Appalachians but there may be significantly less surface-based instability given clouds and the surface front potentially near the beaches. Storm-total rainfall should range from half an inch on the beaches to potentially over an inch inland. For temperatures, Friday should be the last day for above-normal readings with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees just ahead of thunderstorm development in the afternoon. More clouds on Saturday should hold highs in the lower 80s area-wide. Low temps both nigheights should end up in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday Confidence in the exact shape and location of the upper low to our west begins to wane next week. Last night's 00z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and Canadian along with today's 12z GFS (Global Forecast System) show the system lifting slowly northward from the southern Appalachians Sunday into West Virginia by Monday. This becomes important for two reasons: - The deep flow of moisture from the Gulf should shift off the Carolina coast Sunday night into Monday, reducing our coverage of showers and thunderstorms - Tropical disturbance 94L, which some models show may become a tropical cyclone in the Bahamas this weekend, should be steered by the cyclonic mid and upper level flow around this upper low The majority of ensemble solutions keep 94L off the Southeast coast, recurving the system into southwesterly steering flow off the East Coast. However a sizable minority of ensembles show onshore steering flow that would allow more direct impacts sometime during the first half of next week. Tropical disturbance 93L, farther east than 94L, has an even better potential to become a tropical cyclone and should remain farther off the East Coast. Potentially two tropical cyclones in the western Atlantic next week will increase the risk of rough surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Carolinas even if both systems remain well offshore. Outside of tropical troubles, the surface cold front near the Carolina coast on Saturday should slide just offshore and stall early next week. A cooler airmass west of the front should keep our high temperatures in the lower 80s. Even with northeasterly surface winds the flow just above the frontal inversion may continue to advect some low level Atlantic moisture overhead with more clouds than sun expected along with lingering chances for showers Monday into Tuesday. Marine Through Thursday...Benign marine conditions through Thursday, with south-southwest winds increasing in strength towards end of the day Thursday to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas around 2 ft increasing to 2-3 ft during the day Thursday, combination of S wind wave and E swell. Thursday Night through Monday...A cold front extending NE-SW across the interior portion of the Carolinas will very slowly ease its way down to the beaches this weekend. There may not be a sudden wind shift across the coastal waters to herald the front's arrival, instead south to southwest winds look like they'll become variable between northeast and southeast beginning Saturday as clusters of showers and thunderstorms develop along the ill-defined boundary. The front appears it will stall somewhere just offshore late Sunday into Monday. All eyes are focused on tropical disturbance 94L currently located near Puerto Rico. There is nothing clear-cut about how this system may develop and move over the coming five days due to interactions with a second tropical disturbance (93L) to its east, plus a complex upper air pattern likely to develop along the Southeast coast early next week. Assuming one or both disturbances become tropical cyclones early next week, increasing southeasterly swell plus a steady northeast wind may develop along the Carolina coastline. Tides / Coastal Flooding Rip Currents An elevated risk of rip currents is expected through this evening for New Hanover County beaches due to easterly swells associated with distant tropical cyclone Gabrielle. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ108. SC...None. Marine None. |
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