Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt Early. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Rain This Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Rain.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Rain.|
|Sat...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Increasing To 30 To 35 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Rain Likely.|
|Sun...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Through The Day.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
734am EST Thu Nov 14 2019
Rain chances really ramp up later today and will last through much of Friday and Saturday. The weekend will also be quite breezy especially at the coast. Expect quiet weather and more seasonable temperatures through most of next week except on Tuesday when another low pressure system may bring some rain.
Updated WWA section to include Minor Coastal Flooding along the Lower Cape Fear River from 8am to noon EST. Tide levels are forecast to reach 5.7 ft MLLW around the time of high tide around 10am EST. Minor coastal flooding starts at 5.5 ft MLLW.
Near Term - Through Friday
Mid-level s/w trough dropping SE from the upper plains states today will hook up with a southern stream (subtropical jet) s/w trough and transition into a closed upper low across the Southeast States by late Fri. At the surface today, the center of the Arctic high will push off New England today with both temps and dewpoints moderating but continuing below normal. During this time, a coastal trough.front will develop just offshore and parallel to the Carolina Coastlines and persist thru Fri. As the upper closed system materializes later tonight thru Fri, an area of low pressure is expected to develop and move NE along this coastal front. West of this coastal front, including the ILM CWA, locations will see light stratiform rains begin to breakout by late this afternoon and persist thru this evening. Late tonight thru Fri, looking at continued stratiform rains with the intensity increasing to moderate as dynamics from the upper closed low begin to interact with the developing surface low along the coastal front/trough. At this point, there is no mechanism to pull the coastal front onshore and as a result, temps Fri will continue below normal. In fact, todays and Fri highs will run in the 50s with 40s along and west of the I-95 corridor. Tonigheights lows will only drop 5 to 10 degrees from todays and Fri highs. By late Fri, some tapping of the cold Canadian high centered over the Great Lakes, will keep below to well below normal. Moisture tapping should not be a problem with Atlantic moisture combining with Gulf moisture as the closed upper low moves closer to the SE States. For the 36 hr storm total pcpn, ending Friday at 7 PM, the ILM CWA will see around 1 inch along and west of the I-95 corridor and possibly up to 1.5 inches along the NC-SC coasts. Tstorms, if any, will remain over the Atl waters, specifically, along and on the east side of the coastal trough.front. Thus, a more uniform 36 hr storm total precipitation across the FA.
Short Term - Friday Night Through Saturday Night
Cutoff low will track across the Southeast Fri night through Sat, moving off the coast Sat night. One area of low pressure will move off to the northeast as another low deepens off the Carolina coast tracking off to the east northeast Sat night into Sun. Best lift and heavier rain will lift off to the northeast as first low lifts north, but enough lift and moisture through the column will keep clouds and rain in the forecast through most of Fri night into Saturday as another area of low deepens off the coast. Overall, expect rain and cool gusty northerly winds with temps moderated by clouds and rain through Saturday. The low should pull away Sat night allowing drier air to make its way in on the back end. Fairly steep inversion below 3 k ft will keep lingering low clouds, especially along the coast into Sunday morning.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
Deep low pressure system will lift off to the northeast with ridge building in behind it Sunday into Monday. This will be short-lived as another trough aloft moves across the area Monday in a very progressive pattern. This should produce a deeper S-SW flow riding over the shallow northerly flow enhancing lift and producing clouds and increased chance of rain through Mon. As the mid to upper trough moves across the Southeast it will deepen surface low off the coast with additional rainfall through Tuesday, especially along and off the coast. Drier high pressure will build in behind this system through mid week with more seasonable temps.
Leftover SCA (Small Craft Advisory) early this morning, mainly due to gusts to 25 kt thru 9am, will be followed by a brief reprieve due to slight relaxing of the surface pg this afternoon thru this evening. The coastal trough.front will develop just offshore and parallel to the Carolina Coastlines tonight and persist thru Fri and beyond. Models develop low pressure off northeast FL Fri morning, and is forecast to race to the NE, traversing along the coastal frontal boundary which should remain offshore, just beyond the ILM coastal waters. This boundary may oscillate into the coastal waters briefly Fri but overall odds are it should remain just offshore. Significant seas 3 to 5 ft today thru midday Fri and will be limited to their growth due to winds from the N to NNE. During Fri afternoon. winds will veer 10 to 30 degrees which will increase the fetch for seas to build upon, with 4 to 6 ft by sunset Fri. Dominating periods will run 5 to 6 seconds, increasing to 7 seconds late Fri.
One area of low pressure strengthens as it lifts off to the northeast while another, more potent low deepens off the Southeast coast heading into Sat. This will kick winds and seas up through Fri night into Saturday. Issued a Gale Watch for Fri eve through Saturday for period of strongest winds. The deep low will move off to the NE on Sunday. Expect seas to rise through late Fri peaking up to 7 to 12 ft later on Saturday. Northerly winds and seas will diminish through Sunday into Monday on back end of low as it lifts away from area waters, but seas will hold up in SCA thresholds through Sun. By Mon, winds will lighten and back becoming off shore with seas dropping to 2 to 4 ft by Monday aftn.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ107. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for AMZ250-252-254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 9am EST this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256.