Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers With Isolated Tstms Late.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.|
|Tue...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning.|
|Tue Night...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri...E Winds 10 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
744am EDT Monday Mar 25 2019
Synopsis: Temperatures will warm today and rain chances will increase late today into tonight as a cold front moves across the area. Breezy and cooler weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the north. The high will move offshore Friday with a warming trend expected for the weekend.
Near Term - Through Tuesday
As of 3am Monday...Latest surface analysis shows 1014 mb low pressure entering the TN Valley with high pressure centered well offshore. The surface low and associated mid-level shortwave trough will push east towards the area today, with deep SW flow out ahead of these features. Expect a dry morning with increasing clouds. Forcing and low-level convergence then increase through the afternoon hours, with rain chances increasing. High temps range through the 70s. The front drops through the area tonight, when rain chances will be highest (60-80%). Forcing is not that impressive with the front, and forecasted Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts are under one half inch. Kept mention of just slight chance thunder. 00Z NAM continues to show a much shallower moisture profile than the GFS. Low temps tonight in the upper 40s to lwr 50s.
Deepening low pressure will move away from the North Carolina coast Tuesday morning. The cold front should already be well south of our area at sunrise, and north winds will advect gradually drier in throughout the day. Low clouds and perhaps a little lingering light rain generated within the sloping frontal inversion should last through at least the morning hours before clearing out from north to south during the afternoon. Forecast Probability of Precipitation Tuesday morning range from 20-30%. High temps Tuesday in the mid/upper 50s
Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night
As of 3am Monday...Surface high continues to build in from the north Tuesday night as strong shortwave passes well south of the area. Wave is too far south to have any impact on the region and clear skies are expected overnight as mid-level subsidence takes over. Strong cold advection Tuesday night will drop temperatures near freezing. Winds will continue all night with speeds in the 7-10 mph range and radiational cooling will not be a concern. Partial thickness values do suggest some isolated areas could briefly drop below freezing.
Surface high continues to build in from the north Wednesday with the center of the high shifting off the New England coast and becoming more elongated later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Mid-level subsidence continues over the area with the 5h trough axis just offshore. Skies will remain clear with late March sun working to modify the air mass. Highs still end up below climo, but think most areas will just eek into the 60s. Lows Wednesday night will once again flirt with freezing. Although air mass will modify during Wednesday and cold advection will have ended, radiational cooling will have more of an impact. Gradient looks like it will support winds in the 3 to 6 mph range all night, which would prevent radiational cooling from being maximized, however typical sheltered cold spots would have the potential to dip below freezing
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
As of 3am Monday...Sharp trough off the Southeast coast at the start of the period slowly lifts northeast and fills late in the week. Brief shortwave ridge Fri into Sat is kicked east by strong shortwave dropping south from central Canada and then moving east across the Great Lakes Sat into Sun. The shortwave drives a cold front into the area early next week. Bulk of the dynamics and a large portion of the moisture associated with the system end up north of the area and the front may end up passing dry.
-Minimal rain chances through the period. Cold front early next week would be the only shot for rainfall.
-Temperatures below climo on Thu will trend near normal Thu night.
-Strong warm advection Fri through Sunday will push temperatures well above climo.
As of 3am Monday...Southerly flow of 10-15 kt for today ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas up to 2-3 ft. The front is expected to move off the coast late tonight allowing the wind to veer to a stronger northerly direction by daybreak. Winds then quickly ramp up during the day Tuesday in association with cold air advection and NNE flow as strong high pressure builds off to the north. Decided to hoist a late third period-fourth period Gale Watch for frequent gusts of 34 kt possible. Seas up to 7-9 out 20nm, highest over the North Carolina waters.
Gale conditions will continue through Tuesday night and could persist for most of Wednesday as gradient tightens up in response to high building down the coast. Winds do start to weaken late Wednesday into Thu as the center of the high retreats northeast. Seas could reach 10 ft in places open to northeast fetch. Northeast flow will gradually decrease, but headlines will likely be needed into Thu evening before marine conditions really start to improve. Winds drop under 10 kt Thu night into Fri and become variable as secondary high center to the west becomes the dominant feature. Decreasing wind speeds Thu night into Fri will allow seas to fall from 3 to 5 ft to 2 to 3 ft by the end of the forecast period
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for AMZ250-252-254-256