Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt This Evening. Seas 6 To 9 Ft.|
|Tue...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Day.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
636pm EST Monday Nov 30 2020
Cooler and drier air in wake of a cold front, will linger much of the week. Another cold front is expected to reach the coast early next weekend, bringing a warm-up late week with a chance of showers ahead of it.
.UPDATE/... No changes of note this update. Thin reflecivity streaks caught in the upper low appear to be chaff early this evening. GOES night-time microphysics channel shows enough cloud rotating in to call it a partly cloudy night for this issunace. The wind will remove fog concerns overnight even though the ground is soggy. KLTX VWP showing 25 kt through the boundary layer so will retain the wind 'gust' mention in products tonight.
Near Term - Through Tuesday Night
Cool and dry weather will dominate the near term as Cold Air Advection strengthens behind exiting cold front. Breezy conditions will continue tonight through tomorrow as pressure gradient remains tight between low pressure system to the north and building high pressure to the southwest, though gusts will not be as strong as they were today. Already seeing cold air filtering into our area from the west, and will continue to see decrease in temps into the upper 30s for tonight. Strong 500mb shortwave moves across tonight, but atmosphere will be too dry for anything to really materialize. That said, slight chance for sprinkles across northern counties, inc Robeson/Bladen, during overnight hours where slightly higher low level moisture is forecasted.
850 mb temps sharply decrease for tomorrow, with high temps struggling to reach 50 degrees across the area. Tuesday night will likely have the coldest temperatures we've seen since early March, with lows forecasted in the upper 20s inland and around 30 near the coast. As our growing season officially ends December 1st, no products will be issued for these freezing temps.
Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night
Clear, quiet and cold will summarize the Short Term period. High pressure dominates the weather on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures on Wednesday will be closer to average for January after morning lows below freezing across much of the CWA and afternoon highs topping out in the lower 50s. Expect a cold start again on Thursday morning as high pressure moves nearly overhead and excellent radiational cooling follows. Air mass moderates slightly on Thursday with highs approaching 60. High moves offshore and winds become easterly Thursday night, bringing low-level moisture advection and clouds, leading to a slow increase in temperatures.
Long Term - Friday Through Monday
Models still depicting a good amount of uncertainty regarding the pattern for Friday and weather next weekend. In general, a cutoff low or upper trough will dig into the central US on Thursday or Friday. This will produce a surface low over the Great Lakes region, bringing a cold front through the eastern US. Models have trended toward a more northward position of the surface low pressure system in the previous runs. This would bring a lower chance of showers without the advantage of surface forcing for ascent. Any shower chances will also have to contend with dry air aloft. Have kept Probability of Precipitation around 30% for now (Chance of rain). The southerly push of the upper- low leads to the development of a secondary cutoff low as shortwave energy dives southward on the western edge of the low and is abandoned when the flow absorbs the cutoff disturbance. Euro consistently keeps this cutoff low over the desert SW in previous model runs and has no impact on our area; in fact the remainder of the weekend looks quiet, clear, and pleasant in this scenario. However, the GFS continues to develop the upper-low over the Lower Mississippi River Valley progressing across the Southeastern US on Friday night and Saturday. This pattern would provide a southerly fetch of moisture and potential for showers on Saturday. Despite the differences over the weekend, global modes tend to agree that a deep upper-trough will dive into the eastern US on Monday, bringing another, stronger, cold front through the area. Moisture for showers will be difficult to find in such a dry air mass and more dry advection moving into the area behind the front.
Through Tuesday Night... Gale warning extended through 10pm tonight for lingering elevated gusts and high seas. Strong SW winds this evening will veer to W overnight behind exiting cold front, with 6-9 ft seas through 0z. A Small Craft Advisory will most likely be issued this evening for overnight hours through tomorrow morning, as winds are expected to remain at or above 25 kts through sunrise with seas 5-7 ft overnight. Conditions improve tomorrow, though will remain breezy during the day as pressure gradient remains tight. West winds 20-25 kts Tuesday afternoon will weaken to 15-20 kts out of the NW Tuesday night. 3-5 ft seas Tuesday afternoon weaken to 2-4 ft Tuesday night. Near term seas predominantly a weakening SW wind wave with a weak 1-2 ft SE swell mixed in.
Wednesday through Saturday... High pressure to our southwest will continue to build northward on Wednesday as NW winds maintain 10-15 knots. High stalls overhead Wednesday night into Thursday as winds become light and seas return to their base state of 2-3 feet. Thursday night into Friday, the high will move offshore and easterly winds develop, becoming southerly by midday Friday ahead of the next cold front. Gradient ahead of the cold front has varied in intensity over previous models runs, but given the typical pattern, will see winds increase to near 10-15 knots or higher. Cold front pushes through the area on Saturday and gradient increases with the NW surge bringing 10-20 knots of offshore flow and cold advection promoting gusts to 20-25 knots; seas increase to 3-5 feet.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Gale Warning until 10pm EST this evening for AMZ250-252-254- 256.