Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Pm...S Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Tonight...S Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Scattered Showers With Isolated Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Scattered Showers With Isolated Tstms In The Evening.|
|Thu...N Winds 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers Through The Day, Then Showers Likely Through The Night. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
339pm EDT Tuesday July 27 2021
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through Wednesday ahead of a front. Dry weather briefly returns Thursday before rain chances increase into the weekend. Hot temperatures on Friday with high humidity, could result in heat advisories.
Near Term - Through Wednesday Night
Isolated sea breeze convection to continue through sunset. Inland areas a tougher call as storms just west of the CWA looking like they don't have much steering flow. Light onshore winds will keep POPs in the forecast at the immediate coast overnight. Thunderstorm coverage somewhat low Wednesday as well. The mid level trough axis will swing through, pushing the deeper moisture and thus slightly higher rain chances to the coast.
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
Hot couple of days in store for Thurs and Fri. Mid to upper trough shifts farther off the coast while 596 ridge over the Plains nudges eastward into the Carolinas. Deep dry N-NW flow backs to the W above the surface, through the low to mid levels Thurs into Fri. The temps on Thurs will already be in the mid 90s, but on Fri the temps should reach a few degrees warmer. Fri, the warm start to the day and westerly downslope flow, will all contribute to temps warming up well into the 90s. The combination of temps well into the 90s and high humidity will lead to heat indices over 105 in places. Thurs should reach heat advisory thresholds over a smaller portion of the area and for less amount of time. High cloud may act to filter out some of the sunshine Fri afternoon. but a heat advisory will most likely be necessary. Does not look like record temps will be in running as of now. The broad mid to upper trough over the Northeast will push a boundary south on Fri and should increase clouds and convection as it reaches south into the forecast area late Fri night.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
Broad mid to upper trough will keep lingering washed out boundary strung out over the Carolinas over the weekend. Minor perturbations in the flow will ride along the trough aloft keeping weather unsettled. By late Sunday into Mon, mid to upper trough will dig a bit farther south pushing a front into the Carolinas. Expect enhanced and more widespread convection along the front Monday through at least Tues as trough continues to dig down just west of area. Temps drop back down, but should still be above normal in westerly downslope flow for the weekend as a front drops into area. Looks like clouds, pcp and height falls will keep temps below normal Monday through at least Tues.
Through Wednesday night: Very quiet conditions through the near term with little to no appreciable surface features. Wind will be out of the S to SW and generally capped at 10kt save for some weak low level jetting that should open things up to 10-15 overnight. Seas will predominantly be comprised of a 5-6 second wind chop but also a lesser SE swell closer to 10 sec.
Thursday through Sunday: Southwest flow on Thurs will veer to a more westerly offshore flow very briefly allowing near shore seas to come down, but overall S-SW flow will continue up to 10 to 15 kts. Increasing southerly push up to 15 to 20 kts ahead of front on Fri into the weekend will drive seas up from 2 to 3 ft on Thurs to 3 to 4 ft on Fri into Fri night. As front drops down and stalls nearby on Saturday, expect more variable winds. A minimal SE swell will continue Thurs through the weekend.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.