Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 245am EDT Wednesday April 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The new airmass building in early next week behind the cold front appears slightly cooler than was thought yesterday. Downward adjustments have been made to forecast temperatures beginning Sunday night. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. 2) A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week. The persistent 500 mb ridge off the Southeast coast should get beaten down temporarily by the passage of an upper level shortwave across the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic on Friday. This truly is just an upper level feature with no discernible impact at or below 700 mb except for a weakening of the surface Bermuda high well offshore. Unusual warmth will continue through the period with 850 mb temps near +16C today, Thursday, and Friday, then warming to almost +18C on Saturday as the upper ridge expands one final time. This would be at record high values for this time of year at the Morehead City upper air site according to the Storm Prediction Center sounding climatology webpage. Inland high temperatures across Lumberton and the Pee Dee region should touch 90 degrees today, Thursday, and Friday before surging into the lower 90s on Saturday. This looks to be the hottest stretch of the year so far. Along the coast, onshore synoptic winds and/or afternoon seabreeze winds will keep highs a good 6 to 12 degrees cooler than inland locations. Descending air within the ridge and lack of Atlantic inflow (except for along the immediate coast) should allow dewpoints to mix down into the 50s each day with minimum relative humidity falling to 25-30 percent. Seven-day rainfall totals are zero, and totals over the past three weeks are only 10-30 percent of normal, leading to intensifying drought and worsening soil and fuel moisture levels. Elevated Fire Danger statements may continue daily through the end of the week. Record highs today through Saturday: ................Wednesday April 15...Thu April 16...Fri April 17...Sat April 18 Wilmington......92 in 2006...90 in 2006...89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......92 in 2006...93 in 1941...91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........94 in 2006...90 in 2006...93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..90 in 2006...87 in 2006...87 in 1995...89 in 1976 KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday will bring a low chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week. Big changes will begin Sunday with the arrival of a cold front during the day. Timing of this feature has been remarkably consistent among the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) models for days now. Morning sunshine within the warm pre-frontal airmass Sunday should allow temps to rise well into the 80s ahead of the front. While there will be low level convergence along the front and at least small, uncapped convective instability present, deep moisture is notably lacking. If we're lucky enough to see scattered showers or storms on Sunday, they will likely develop within a thinning ribbon of 850-700 mb Gulf moisture dragged ahead of the upper trough. Rain chances are no higher than 20-30 percent and will decrease rapidly as colder, drier air pushes in behind the front Sunday evening. Model trends over the past 24-48 hours have been toward a deeper upper level trough and colder air building in for Monday. Recent GFS (Global Forecast System) and ECMWF MOS guidance now show Monday's high temperatures topping out only in the 60s. Low temps Sunday night, Monday night, and perhaps even Tuesday night should dip into the 40s giving our air conditioners a welcome break after the past week of unusual heat. Marine Through Tonight Bermuda High will maintain S to SW winds in the 10 to 15 kt range with a backing from SW to S and spike in winds near shore in the afternoon sea breeze. Inlets could be choppy. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft feet with a longer period easterly swell mixing in. Thursday through Sunday...A summerlike weather pattern will continue through the first half of Sunday as Bermuda high pressure offshore maintains southwesterly winds along the Carolina coast. Although synoptic wind speeds should average 10-12 knots, there will be significant increases each afternoon and evening nearshore due to the seabreeze. GFS and NAM-based Marine MOS guidance suggests 20 kt sustained winds are possible just off Wrightsville Beach Thursday afternoon and evening. Seas will consist of a mix of local wind chop with a southeasterly 10 second swell, averaging about 3 feet in height. Big changes will arrive Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes off the coast. In addition to a chance for scattered showers or thunderstorms along the front, winds will shift to the north behind the front and increase to at least 20 knots, perhaps reaching Small Craft Advisory thresholds Sunday night. Seas should also build to 3-6 feet within the stronger winds. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. SC... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ054-058- 059. Marine None. |
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