Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight, Then Becoming N Late. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms This Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. Smoke After Midnight. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And N 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. Smoke. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And S 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. Areas Of Smoke In The Evening, Then Patchy Smoke After Midnight. |
| Sat...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Ne 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely. |
| Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. |
| Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 448pm EDT Thu July 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Heat Advisories have been expanded to include the Eastern Shore of Maryland through 8pm today. Confidence in storm occurrence this afternoon has increased slightly, but no changes have occurred with respect to the severe weather outlook. .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Above normal temperatures will continue through today, with Heat Advisories in place for portions of the area. 2. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will infiltrate the area today, potentially lingering into the weekend. 3. Isolated severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening for areas south of I-78. 4. The first half of the weekend is shaping up to be active with showers and thunderstorms expected for Saturday into Saturday night along with warm and very humid conditions. Storms have the potential of becoming severe and also producing heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures will continue through today, with Heat Advisories in place for portions of the area. Despite the abundance of wildfire smoke around the area today, temperatures have risen into the upper 80s to low/mid 90s across much of the area with dew points in the low to mid 70s. This results in heat indicies around around 95-102 degrees for most of PA and NJ, with heat indicies between 101-106 degrees over the Delmarva. Given this, have opted to maintain heat headlines for the urban corridor, but opted to add the Eastern Shore of Maryland to the advisory due to higher dew points residing near the Chesapeake Bay. All advisories remain in place until 8pm tonight. Temperatures on Friday will remain slightly above normal for mid- July. However, dew points are expected to be more comfortable only in the mid 50s. Thus, heat indicies will not be far removed from the actual air temperature. KEY MESSAGE 2...Smoke from Canadian wildfires will infiltrate the area today, potentially lingering into the weekend. Latest HRRR/RAP smoke guidance continues to depict that a slug of dense near surface smoke from the wildfires originating over western Ontario will spread into the region tonight. Skies will likely be quite hazy with visibilities projected to fall between 1 to 3 miles overnight, before improving some on Friday. With more of a northerly surface flow expected overnight and into early Friday, this may suppress the worst of the smoke south of our area by mid-day. However, as flow shifts to more southerly by Friday night, guidance is hinting that surface smoke may return into the weekend. While the smoke is anticipated to result in visibility restrictions and poor air quality around the region, to what degree is more uncertain. Given current observations from upstream, this smoke event is not anticipated to be as severe as the June 2023 event, but this will be difficult to predict days in advance. Latest guidance is a bit more optimistic about the smoke clearing out somewhat on Friday. For more information about air quality in your area, visit your state Department of Environmental Protection agency. We will also relay any Air Quality Alerts they may issue on our website. KEY MESSAGE 3...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening for areas south of I-78. A lingering cold front bisecting the region this afternoon is expected to be the focal point in providing a sufficient area of convergence to develop showers and thunderstorms. Similar to yesterday, uncertainty in overall coverage remains high due to better forcing remaining displaced further north and due to ongoing wildfire smoke. However, recent satellite imagery shows a developing cu field over southern Pennsylvania and northern Maryland, now extending into portions of New Jersey. It is here, where storm development may occur this afternoon. Current mesoscale analysis shows MLCAPE will rise to around 2500-3500 J/kg with bulk shear around 40 kt. Furthermore, forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles with DCAPE values between 1000-1250 J/kg. These ingredients and parameters all support the potential for strong downbursts in any storm that does develop. Given this, the area mainly south of I- 78 down into the Delmarva remains highlighted by Storm Prediction Center in a MARGINAL risk for severe weather this afternoon into this evening. Any storm activity should wane by sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. KEY MESSAGE 4...The first half of the weekend is shaping up to be active with showers and thunderstorms expected for Saturday into Saturday night along with warm and very humid conditions. Storms have the potential of becoming severe and also producing heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Low pressure will move eastward through the Great Lakes region Friday night through Saturday before passing by to our north Saturday night into early Sunday. As this occurs, expect multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to move through...first with the warm front and then with the cold front. At this point it looks like conditions stay mainly dry through most of Friday night. Heading into Saturday, the warm front lifts through in the morning and this will bring an initial round of showers and storms through the area. This first round should especially target areas near and north of the urban corridor where POPs are 70-90 percent. Parts of south Jersey and southern Delmarva could largely miss this initial round. There will be a threat for heavy rainfall potentially leading to flash flooding with the morning storms but the severe weather risk looks more limited until later. Following this first round, there could be a break of a few hours in the afternoon during which it will get quite muggy. Highs should range from the low 80s north to the low 90s south but with very high dew points expected the heat indices are likely to top out in the mid and upper 90s around the urban corridor and up to around 105 across portions of Delmarva. So heat headlines may be needed. As we get into the mid to latter part of Saturday afternoon into the evening another round of heavy showers and storms looks to move through ahead of the cold front. It's with this round that we'll see the best chance of severe weather and flash flooding as well. In terms of the parameters, ML CAPE looks likely to top out in the 1000- 2000+ j/kg range with deep layer shear around 35 to 50 knots. This will support a threat for damaging winds and even some potential for supercells which, if these occur, could also produce large hail. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will also be surging to over 2 inches (well above the 90th percentile for this time of year) so there's an increasing potential for very heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. The greatest threat for this will be for urban, low lying areas, and areas near creeks and streams. Also, any locations that get especially hit hard by both rounds of convection will have a greater potential for flash flooding. Rain amounts of over 2 inches per hour will be possible. Shower/storms should weaken by the late evening into the overnight Saturday night as the cold front moves through. Sunday is now shaping up to be largely dry with seasonable temperatures and comfortable humid levels. Only our southern most zones over portions of the MD eastern shore, southern Delaware, and far southern NJ have chances for some lingering showers or storms but even here the POPs are only 20-30 percent. Marine No marine headlines are in effect through Friday. South-southwest winds around 10-20 kt this afternoon will shift to north-northwest around 10-15 kt tonight following a frontal passage. By Friday morning, north-northeast winds around 10 kt are expected, before settling out of the southeast in the afternoon. Seas around 2-3 feet through Friday. A chance for showers and thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the evening, where locally erratic winds are possible. Also, wildfire smoke will continue to filter into the region tonight into Friday. This may cause localized areas of visibility restrictions. Will have to monitor observations closely tonight as denser smoke arrives, where marine dense smoke advisories may become warranted if visibilities drop to 1 mile or less. Outlook... Saturday through Saturday night...South to southwesterly winds near or above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria expected. Expect winds around 15-20 kt with some gusts 20-30 kt. Seas likely 4-6 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Sunday...Seas may linger near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels early in the day but otherwise the conditions should be sub SCA. Monday...Fair weather expected with winds under 25 knots and seas around 2-4 feet. Tuesday...Winds and seas may approach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels by late day. Rip Currents... On Friday, north-northeast winds around 5 to 10 mph in the morning will settle out of the east-southeast in the afternoon with a 1 to 2 foot swell around 8 to 9 seconds. Breaking wave heigheights will range between 1 to 2 feet. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. On Saturday, south winds around 10 to 15 mph in the morning, will increase to 15 to 30 mph late in the afternoon with a 2 to 3 foot swell around 9 seconds. Breaking wave heigheights will range between 2 to 4 feet. As a result, have opted to go with a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Would not be surprised if an upgrade to HIGH will become necessary for some spots along the Jersey Shore. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106. Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-102- 104-106. NJ... Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for NJZ015-017>019. DE... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ001>004. Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for DEZ001. MD... Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for MDZ012-015-019- 020. Marine None. |
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