Marine Weather Net

Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRI

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ455 Forecast Issued: 702 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W Late This Evening And Overnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 7 Seconds. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 7 Seconds.
Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 7 Seconds And N 1 Foot At 3 Seconds.
Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: N 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 7 Seconds.
Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 3 Seconds.
Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 3 Seconds.
Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Sun Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Mon...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
751pm EDT Wednesday May 29 2024

Synopsis
A weak cold front passes offshore tonight and may stall some thereafter. High pressure builds in Thursday and holds dominate influence over the region into Sunday. Unsettled conditions could return by late Sunday and continue into the middle of next week.

Near Term - Through Thursday
As of 6:20PM...Latest radar imagery shows a wide swath of showers with embedded thunderstorms in SE Pennsylvania with more in the way of showers across the Poconos and Delmarva. This area of precipitation will continue to pivot northeast with time as the surface low transverses across Pennsylvania this evening. Have seen a few organized areas of convection off to the south earlier, but this has since waned. Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE values reaching around 500 J/kg across the Delmarva and E PA with hi-res guidance suggesting values to reach into the 1000 J/kg range in some locations. Deep layer 0-6km shear values will be best across the southern Delmarva, but the shear profiles will be largely unidirectional or incoherent and not favorable for severe development.

In terms of flooding concerns...rainfall forecast amounts have increased slightly overall with areas across northeast PA and northern NJ around 0.50-1.00 inches with locally higher amounts possible. While areas south of I-78 will see storms progress a bit more with embedded downpours, areas along and north of the interstate could see some steady moderate rainfall train across the region beginning this evening and into tonight with some heavier pockets at times. That said, some localized flooding may be possible later this evening and into the late night hours as this storm slowly shifts offshore.

Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s. Skies will be mostly cloudy and begin to clear towards sunrise early Thursday morning. Some showers may linger across eastern NJ prior to sunrise.

Thursday looks to stay mostly dry, though a few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm could develop in the afternoon as our mid level trough remains over head. A weak shortwave will pivot around the main trough and provide some weak and broad ascent across our forecast area. While the best forcing will be south of the region, we can't rule out a few isolated showers across NJ and parts of the Delmarva. That said, dew points at the surface will be in the upper 40s to low 50s and some showers may not reach the ground. Otherwise, mostly sunny with highs around the low to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The region will feel the influence of surface high pressure throughout the duration of the short term. Surface high pressure centered to our west Thursday night will gradually move eastward with time. This surface high pressure will look to be centered over the region for Saturday.

With surface high pressure in control of the region, expect a nice and quiet short term with pleasant conditions. Some lingering shortwave energy could persist into the first half of Thursday night; a quick and isolated pop-up shower cannot be ruled out entirely, but overall things will be quiet for the period. Friday and Saturday will be beautiful sunny and dry days with surface high pressure in control. We are looking at highs in the 70s Friday with dewpoints in the 40s. For Saturday, we are looking at highs near 80F with dewpoints mainly in the 40s. Both days will feel very comfortable; being outdoors will be enjoyable.

Mainly clear skies will be present Thursday night and Friday night with light winds in the forecast. Decent radiational cooling will likely occur both nights. Overnight lows in the low to mid 50s can be anticipated both nights.

Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
Ensembles and deterministic models suggests a more zonal upper-level pattern will take hold over the CONUS for long term. At the surface level, guidance suggests surface high pressure will continue to hold influence over the region Saturday night into Sunday while continuing to move eastwards/southeastwards and offshore. As the high shifts further offshore of the eastern CONUS with time Sunday into Tuesday, some weak low pressure, associated fronts, and shortwave energy could be invited to influence the region later Sunday into next week. Overall, things could generally become unsettled again Sunday afternoon onwards.

Not much confidence in details of the long term forecast today with the forecast zonal upper-level pattern and its slow evolution. Expect unsettled conditions Sunday afternoon onwards with chances for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons/evenings.

Marine
Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions through Thursday. Southerly winds this evening around 10kt will shift W-NW overnight. Showers and a few thunderstorms possible with a surface low moving east tonight and out to sea early Thursday. Winds shift N-NE around 10 kt on Thursday. Seas will linger around 2-3 feet.

Outlook... Thursday night through Monday...No marine headlines anticipated.

Rip Currents... For Thursday, northwest winds around 10 mph will veer northeast in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be 2 to 3 feet. With the lighter winds and shorter period swells, there will continue to be a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents along the New Jersey and Delaware beaches.

Friday will be very similar to Thursday. North winds around 10 mph will become northeast later in the day. Breaking waves will be about 2 feet. This will result in a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents along the New Jersey and Delaware beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

As always, rip currents can still develop, and often occur in the vicinities of jetties and piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the water.

NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.

Marine
None.