Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers Late This Evening And Overnight.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 12 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Early In The Evening. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 13 Seconds.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt Early In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Sw Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 12 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft Or Less, Then Around 3 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
343pm EDT Monday September 23 2019
A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure returns Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by another cold front Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure builds in on Friday. Another cold front may approach the region this weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
Another hot, humid, well above normal day temperature wise today ahead of an approaching cold front. A weak surface trough remains across the area this afternoon while the first of a couple of short waves/vorticity impulses moves across the area. This has helped keep an area of showers progressing toward our area through the afternoon, which may hold together into portions of eastern Pennsylvania before dissipating. The same cannot be said about showers that are expected to develop ahead of the approaching cold front. The front will continue to progress eastward across Pennsylvania and make its way into our area around sunset. Instability will remain in place across the area ahead of the front, while the short wave/vorticity impulse aloft approaches as well. CAPE values are not significantly strong, maxing out around 500- 1,000 J/kg this afternoon, but shear values increase to 35-40 knots underneath 40-45 knots of mid-level flow. This could help lead to isolated thunderstorms, which one or two may become strong to severe, hence Storm Prediction Center has a small portion of Carbon and Monroe under a Marginal Risk for severe weather late this afternoon and evening. The showers and thunderstorms will continue to progress eastward across the area, eventually moving offshore during the overnight period as the front moves offshore as well.. A brief period of moderate to heavy rain may also be possible due to PW values (Precipitable Water values) approaching 1.75 inches.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
The low pressure that will be pulling the cold front across the area Monday night will slowly drift offshore of Maine through the day Tuesday while high pressure builds across the Ohio River Valley and southern/central Appalachians. This will keep a northwest flow across the area on Tuesday, which could become gusty around 15-25 mph at times through the day. While cloud cover will likely increase through the day, precipitation is not expected to reach our area at this time. Temperatures Tuesday will be cooler than Monday, but will remain a few degrees above normal.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Monday
Overview...With the exception of two potential cold fronts (one on Thursday and one Saturday into Sunday), the relatively quiet weather pattern is expected to continue through the next week.
Wednesday And Thursday
Surface high is expected to progress east, going off shore by Wednesday night ahead of the next cold front which should arrive later Thursday into Thursday night. As mentioned by the previous shift, this looks to be mostly a dry frontal passage as the best synoptic scale lift should stay well north of the region.
Friday...Southeasterly onshore flow develops which should help to keep temperatures closer to normal. Highs are expected to be slightly above normal, ranging from the upper 60s to near 80.
Saturday and Sunday...Another cold front could approach the area Saturday into Sunday. There is some question though with how far south this front will get before stalling. Some models have the front stalling along the NY/PA state line, while others show the front progressing all the way through the region Saturday night. If it does progress through our region, then the chance for rain could increase. For now though, given the uncertainty, have kept Probability of Precipitation at 20 percent or less.
Monday...The pattern on Monday will be highly dependent on where and if the weekend front stalls. It is possible if the front stalls, we could see the front progress from the northeast as a backdoor front.
Tonight...A Small Craft Advisory will remain this evening across the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters as seas will remain near 5 feet and winds gust around 25 knots. Winds and seas are expected to lower below advisory levels later tonight.
Tuesday...Winds are expected to remain below 25 knots on Tuesday while seas are expected to remain around 4 feet or less. It is possible seas may reach 5 feet, but we are not confident enough in this occuring to extend the advisory into Tuesday.
Outlook... Wednesday through Friday...Seas should subside Wednesday morning, winds and seas should stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through this period.
Friday night and Saturday...Seas could once again build above 5 feet through this period.
Rip Currents... A high risk of rip currents remains this afternoon and evening due to southerly winds 10-15 knots, and seas 4-5 feet with a 5-10 second period, occasionally reaching 15 seconds.
With seas 3-4 feet, a period of 10-12 seconds, and an offshore wind of 10-15 knots, the rip current risk on Tuesday will be at least Moderate.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...High Rip Current Risk until 10pm EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026. DE...High Rip Current Risk until 10pm EDT this evening for DEZ004. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455.