Marine Weather Net

Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

SW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

TUE

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ455 Forecast Issued: 1003 PM EST Sun Dec 05 2021

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
Overnight...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds.
Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 20 To 25 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds.
Mon Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Late Evening And Overnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Until Early Morning. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds, Becoming Mainly From The Nw With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds After Midnight.
Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The N With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds, Becoming Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds In The Afternoon.
Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Or Snow After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Snow Likely In The Morning. Rain Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Wed Night...Nw Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.
Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
946pm EST Sunday Dec 5 2021

Synopsis
High pressure will remain in place across the region today. A warm front will move through tonight and early Monday as a strong area of low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with that low will move through by Monday night. High pressure then briefly returns for Tuesday. Another fast moving frontal system could bring mixed precipitation to the area midweek. Another short- lived area of high pressure will build in for Thursday, but additional frontal systems could affect the region by the end of the week and next weekend.

Near Term - Through Monday Night
For the late evening update: adjusted Probability of Precipitation and weather to account for an expected lull in the precipitation between the initial round of showers overnight and the next round Monday afternoon and evening.

The surface high will continue.nue to shift further northeast away from our region as the warm front, which was near the VA/NC state line at 00Z progresses northward into our region. An initial round of showers is expected overnight. We've already seen some showers develop off the Delmarva coast, north of the warm front. These showers should progress from south to north across the region through the overnight hours, and should be out of our region before sunrise.

After sunrise, we will likely keep lingering low clouds for a while, but should see a lull in the rain until late in the afternoon (just ahead of the cold front). Thanks to the southerly flow/warm air advection in the wake of the warm front, temperatures should be 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with highs ranging from the lower 50s to mid 60s. Although mixing will be inefficient through at least mid day thanks to a mid level inversion, wind gusts near 35 mph will be possible as a low level jet develops over our region by mid day.

The cold front behind the departing low will be moving across the area during the late afternoon and evening hours. The showers that accompany the front will end from W to E through the evening and decreasing clouds will occur after that. Colder temps arrive on a gusty W to NW wind through the night and readings will fall from the 50s into the 30s overnight. The precipitation (NW of the fall line) will likely end before temperatures become cold enough for any snow, so for now, no mention of that is in the grids/fcst.

Short Term - Tuesday
Tuesday will be much colder as a long wave trough axis centers over the Great Lakes Region. Surface high pressure over IL will quickly head east during the day Tuesday and center over DE/ NJ by the evening hours. Skies will start off relatively clear Tuesday morning with cloud cover quickly approaching from the west and southwest. 850 MB temperatures Tuesday will be around 7 degrees C below zero with 1000/850 MB thicknesses around 1285 m. This will support high temperatures mainly in the low to mid 40s across the area with lower 30s forecast for the Poconos. No precipitation is expected Tuesday.

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Tuesday night the closed low that was over the Baja California will be sheared apart and heading off the coast of the Mid- Atlantic states. Simultaneously, two more waves will be approaching from the west. Model guidance has struggled mightily over the last several days with run-to-run consistency showing surface cyclogenesis occurring right along the NJ coast to well off the NJ coast. The overall trend has been rather clear though, with taking the system farther offshore. The main question has been how far offshore? The latest runs of the GFS and NAM now have the primary band of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast over DE and southern NJ. The CMC has the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast even further south. The further south solutions would favor more of a colder and snowier p-type, but to far of a southern translation of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast would make the area just plain dry. Confidence here is extremely low as the the closed low over Baja California is not being sampled well and will likely continue to cause multiple fluctuations in the forecast track of the surface low in global models. The highest chance of precipitation will be late Wednesday morning into afternoon.

As the coastal low heads northeast, precipitation will come to an end with cold temperatures persisting as skies clear Wednesday night. Expect low temperatures Wednesday night to be in the low to mid 20s. During the day Thursday a brief break in the precipitation is expected as surface high pressure builds overhead. Late Thursday afternoon into early evening a mid-level wave will approach from the west with clouds quickly increasing.

Early Friday morning, the mid-level wave will cross the zones and begin to wash out as it does. For now have included a slight chance of precipitation, but deamplifying waves tend to under perform in these circumstance. Temperatures will start to rebound Friday with highs around 50 degrees expected.

Saturday into Sunday, models are showing a rather progressive pattern continuing as a wave is forecast to amplify as it heads east towards the Mid-Atlantic. There will likely be precipitation with this system, but timing remains nebulous this far out. One signal that is clearer at this time frame is the overall tendency for warming temperatures next weekend as heigheights are forecast to slowly build.

Marine
Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected on the area waters through tonight.

High pressure will move offshore tonight while low pressure and its associated fronts arrive for Monday. sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected tonight while clouds thicken and rain showers develop over the waters. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) flags start around dawn for the southern waters NJ and DE waters as well as Delaware Bay. Gales warnings will be in effect for Monday for the rest of the NJ ocean waters. Moderate confid in winds/seas forecast for Monday.

Monday night...Winds and seas slowly diminish with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) flags expected after the Gale ends for the ocean waters. Showers ending then fair.

Outlook... Tuesday-Tuesday night... Surface high pressure will move overhead Tuesday with seas and winds quickly decreasing. Winds will veer from the northwest to northeast by Tuesday night. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday-Thursday... Seas around 3 ft for most of Wednesday will increase towards 4 to 6 ft Wednesday night, especially across the northern waters, as surface low pressure heads northeast and just misses the coastal zones to the southeast. Elevated seas may continue into early Thursday but the trend should be towards sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. Northeast winds on Wednesday becoming northwest on Wednesday night into Thursday, with gusts mostly 20 kt or less.

Friday... Seas 2 to 4 feet with southeast winds 5 to 10 kts. Winds will turn around from the southwest Friday night and slightly increase to around 10 to 15 kts.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
We are now passed the new moon, which occurred yesterday (Saturday). As a result, the astronomical high tides are relatively high. Weak onshore flow this afternoon will strengthen some tonight before turning southerly Monday morning. While some minor coastal flooding is anticipated during Monday mornings high tide, especially along the New Jersey coast, it looks marginal and may be more spotty. As a result, we will hold off on any advisories at this time.

NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.

Marine
Gale Warning from noon Monday to 6am EST Tuesday for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory from 6am Monday to 6am EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431-454-455.