Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: N 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. |
| Tonight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: N 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sun...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 11 Seconds And E 4 Ft At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Rain Likely After Midnight. |
| Mon...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 5 Ft At 11 Seconds. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 5 Ft At 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Rain Likely After Midnight. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Wed...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 309pm EST Sat Dec 14 2024 Synopsis Strong high pressure progresses eastward across the northeastern U.S. before shifting offshore Sunday night. A weak system moves through Sunday night and Monday, followed by another system later Monday into early Tuesday. High pressure looks to build in briefly later Tuesday before another low pressure system affects our region later Wednesday into Thursday. Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning An strong and expansive area of high pressure positioned over New England gradually moves eastward towards the Gulf of Maine today and tonight. With the high to the north and incoming low pressure to the west, there is a modest gradient resulting in a light onshore flow that will continue through tonight. With mostly clear skies for at least part of the night though, we should have decent radiational cooling conditions for the first half of the overnight hours, resulting in temperatures dropping into the mid to upper teens north and west of Philadelphia, with low to mid 20s through the Philly area and South Jersey. Increased cloud cover this evening will result in warmer temperatures over Delmarva, where upper 20s/low 30s are expected. Continued dry weather expected. Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Tuesday Sunday will see plenty of clouds thickening and lowering across the region as the day wears on while high pressure retreats east of New England and a warm front accompanied by an upper level low approaches from the west-southwest. Clouds likely keep temps from moderating more than they might given the flow turns easterly off the relatively mild ocean, so while highs will be in the 40s I-95 south and east, 30s should remain northwest of I-95. Warm advection precipitation slowly makes its way into the region starting Sunday evening. Right now, odds appear to favor mainly rain from I- 95 south and east, though with a potentially dry air mass still in place despite the easterly flow, will need to watch trends closely here. Farther northwest, a start of mixed precipitation or snow looks more likely with the cold air damming likely to be enhanced with whatever sleet and snow falls, though overall amounts look light. This becomes more of a problem later at night into Monday morning as the warmer air tries to intrude but may be shoved aloft, which may result in a period of freezing rain across most locales northwest of I-95 before any change to plain rain. Confidence in wintry precipitation is highest over the southern Poconos and NW NJ where we've issued a Winter Weather Advisory with this update for Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA and Sussex Co in NJ. Generally expect upwards of 1 to 3 inches of snow over the southern Poconos before precipitation starts to transition...eventually to all rain Monday morning with a period of sleet/freezing rain likely in the transition period. NW NJ will likely see a bit less than this. For now we continue to keep ice amounts light, mainly less than a tenth of an inch, but higher amounts are possible depending on just how the situation evolves. This will be a troublesome forecast right up until it is happening, almost certainly, and confidence is overall in its typically low level with this set up. Temps likely drop as precipitation moves in and then start to slowly rise as the easterly flow tries to nudge the colder air back out of the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. Lows in the 20s in the Poconos, 30s the rest of the region except right near the coast where 40s should prevail. Monday, the system pulls to the east and precipitation should gradually taper as warm advection wanes and the upper support passes to our east. However it may not completely end with even some light drizzle and showers possibly lingering through the afternoon. Meanwhile, temps continue rising on the now increasingly southeasterly flow. Highs should be above freezing even in the Poconos, with 40s for the next tier southward and 50s from around I-95 south and east. Next upper trough brings a cold front into the region later Monday night, with rain chances increasing again. Southerly flow will hold temps up, with temps only falling a few degrees from their highs on Monday afternoon. The front will sweep off the coast early Tuesday morning bringing rain/showers to an end with sunshine and mild temperatures to follow. Expect highs Tuesday mostly in the 50s to low 60s except 40s in the southern Poconos. Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday High pressure moves offshore on Wednesday with a frontal system coming in Wednesday night into Thursday. Wednesday itself looks pretty dry and mild, with highs looking to be several degrees above normal (upper 40s to as high as 60 over southern Delaware). A deep trough approaches on Wednesday evening with a surface low developing somewhere in the vicinity. This will bring some light to moderate rain to the area overnight. Colder air working in on the backside of the low could result in a few flakes in the Poconos, but this is anticipated to be a rain event primarily. The system does not look overly impactful at this time, just a beneficial rain. Beyond Thursday, the forecast becomes highly uncertain. Some guidance wants to keep a train of shortwaves rotating in through the end of the week, keeping some rain/snow showers around while some have high pressure building in resulting in dry weather to end the week. What some of the longer range guidance is also showing is a potential storm off the coast that is worth watching but nothing even close to concrete yet, just something to keep an eye on it. Stuck close to the NBM as a result. There is a better consensus for temperatures right around normal for the end of the week into the weekend. Outlook... Sunday night...MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) if not some intervals of IFR with low cigs and vsby as precipitation overspreads the region. I-95 terminals on south and east should be plain rain, but a mix of snow, freezing rain and sleet is possible for KRDG and KABE. Monday through Tuesday...IFR/MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) conditions likely persist or recur as one system moves out but another moves into the region. Precipitation should transition to plain rain early Monday and remain plain rain for the remainder of the beyond this time. Conditions should improve back to VFR by midday Tuesday. Tuesday night and Wednesday...mainly VFR. A shower possible Wednesday. Wednesday night Thursday...A new system arrives that could bring associated restrictions. Marine No marine headlines expected through Sunday. Winds will be out of the east/northeast around 10-15 kt and seas 2 to 3 feet through tonight increasing to 3 to 4 feet by late Sunday. Outlook... Sunday night through Tuesday...A pair of system will bring some rain over the waters as well as a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions likely by later Monday night into Tuesday due to increasing southerly winds. Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm Sunday to 9am EST Monday for PAZ054-055. NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 10pm Sunday to 9am EST Monday for NJZ001. DE...None. MD...None. Marine None. |
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